CelticsStrong
Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: KG Living Legend on October 09, 2017, 01:28:43 PM
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He really was asking for someone to do the math here. He said it will be similar to what Ross got for the Raptors. 3 years 33 million, however that was in 2015.
Whatever the percentage of the cap was in 2015, figure out the cap increase and that's around what Smart will get. So what closer to 14 million per year.
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If Smart can average around 34-36% on 3pt attempts, he's going to easily get an contract figured around in the ball park of $16-20 million per year, at the very least...
If Smart wasn't such an dreadful shooter already, he's easily eclipse what Harris is getting. Harris is an great upcoming player that just shot 43% from 3, and averaged 14.9 PPG.
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If we get a similar percentage of the cap to the ross contract (aka 13-15 mil a year now) for Smart, I'm doing backflips. In a world where Evan Turner gets what he got, I'm absolutely fine with Smart for that number.
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If we get a similar percentage of the cap to the ross contract (aka 13-15 mil a year now) for Smart, I'm doing backflips. In a world where Evan Turner gets what he got, I'm absolutely fine with Smart for that number.
The thing is this isn't actually the same world as when Evan Turner got his contract. the cap is expanding much slower, there's not nearly as much money in the league.
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If we get a similar percentage of the cap to the ross contract (aka 13-15 mil a year now) for Smart, I'm doing backflips. In a world where Evan Turner gets what he got, I'm absolutely fine with Smart for that number.
The thing is this isn't actually the same world as when Evan Turner got his contract. the cap is expanding much slower, there's not nearly as much money in the league.
If we get a similar percentage of the cap to the ross contract (aka 13-15 mil a year now) for Smart, I'm doing backflips. In a world where Evan Turner gets what he got, I'm absolutely fine with Smart for that number.
Right.
A common misconception about Evan Turner, or Crabbe receiving said overloaded contracts, is because the cap was supposedly going to increase by a few million, thus freeing up extra room for other teams.
Unfortunately, for us, that isn't the case, and I fear the Mavs will look at DSJ/MS as an unstoppable backcourt and overpay, especially with Smart's ties to his hometown Dallas.
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Do you have a link to that?
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Here are the rookie contract extensions from last year:
C.J. McCollum (Trail Blazers): Four years, $106,633,450 (story)
Steven Adams (Thunder): Four years, $100,000,000 (story)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks): Four years, $100,000,000 (story)
Rudy Gobert (Jazz): Four years, $94,000,000 (story)
Victor Oladipo (Thunder): Four years, $84,000,000 (story)
Gorgui Dieng (Timberwolves): Four years, $62,800,000 (story)
Dennis Schroder (Hawks): Four years, $62,000,000 (story)
Cody Zeller (Hornets): Four years, $55,625,000 (story)
I thinking that it will be between 62 mil and 84 mil.
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If we get a similar percentage of the cap to the ross contract (aka 13-15 mil a year now) for Smart, I'm doing backflips. In a world where Evan Turner gets what he got, I'm absolutely fine with Smart for that number.
The thing is this isn't actually the same world as when Evan Turner got his contract. the cap is expanding much slower, there's not nearly as much money in the league.
If we get a similar percentage of the cap to the ross contract (aka 13-15 mil a year now) for Smart, I'm doing backflips. In a world where Evan Turner gets what he got, I'm absolutely fine with Smart for that number.
Right.
A common misconception about Evan Turner, or Crabbe receiving said overloaded contracts, is because the cap was supposedly going to increase by a few million, thus freeing up extra room for other teams.
Unfortunately, for us, that isn't the case, and I fear the Mavs will look at DSJ/MS as an unstoppable backcourt and overpay, especially with Smart's ties to his hometown Dallas.
I mean, that would be a pretty great backcourt. But I think they've sold themselves on Seth Curry and they seem poised to make a run at Cousins in FA, they may not be as much of a factor for Smart as you fear.
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this makes me very happy
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I don't see a link or any evidence of this
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it's actually the opposite
https://twitter.com/ShamsCharania/status/917463834658516992
Marcus Smart has strong desire to remain in Boston, but tells The Vertical he and agent Happy Walters have yet to hear from Celtics front office on possible extension.
[/b]
Shams CharaniaVerified account
@ShamsCharania[/b]
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The Turner deal won't leave my mind . Smart is clearly a better younger asset.
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If we get a similar percentage of the cap to the ross contract (aka 13-15 mil a year now) for Smart, I'm doing backflips. In a world where Evan Turner gets what he got, I'm absolutely fine with Smart for that number.
The thing is this isn't actually the same world as when Evan Turner got his contract. the cap is expanding much slower, there's not nearly as much money in the league.
If we get a similar percentage of the cap to the ross contract (aka 13-15 mil a year now) for Smart, I'm doing backflips. In a world where Evan Turner gets what he got, I'm absolutely fine with Smart for that number.
Right.
A common misconception about Evan Turner, or Crabbe receiving said overloaded contracts, is because the cap was supposedly going to increase by a few million, thus freeing up extra room for other teams.
Unfortunately, for us, that isn't the case, and I fear the Mavs will look at DSJ/MS as an unstoppable backcourt and overpay, especially with Smart's ties to his hometown Dallas.
As a function of how much money is free in the league the current environment is nothing like the year evan turner got his money. There was something like ONE BILLION dollars in available cap space that summer. This summer there is More like 300-400 million. Also that money is more concentrated between something like 5 teams. Smart is also a restricted free agent meaning teams with money would have to tie it up for three days, that will likely prevent many from offering a contract until they work through their primary unrestricted options. I'm offering Smart 4/52, he wants more than that and we play out the season. He plays well and earns more, than great. We have match rights.
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Here are the rookie contract extensions from last year:
C.J. McCollum (Trail Blazers): Four years, $106,633,450 (story)
Steven Adams (Thunder): Four years, $100,000,000 (story)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks): Four years, $100,000,000 (story)
Rudy Gobert (Jazz): Four years, $94,000,000 (story)
Victor Oladipo (Thunder): Four years, $84,000,000 (story)
Gorgui Dieng (Timberwolves): Four years, $62,800,000 (story)
Dennis Schroder (Hawks): Four years, $62,000,000 (story)
Cody Zeller (Hornets): Four years, $55,625,000 (story)
I thinking that it will be between 62 mil and 84 mil.
Don't forget Gary Harris just got 4 years, $84 million.
If I had to guess, I'd say 4 years, $70 mil would be reasonably fair for both sides and if a final deal is agreed upon it will be within +/- 10 mil of that, which is in the same ballpark as what you said.
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Here are the rookie contract extensions from last year:
C.J. McCollum (Trail Blazers): Four years, $106,633,450 (story)
Steven Adams (Thunder): Four years, $100,000,000 (story)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks): Four years, $100,000,000 (story)
Rudy Gobert (Jazz): Four years, $94,000,000 (story)
Victor Oladipo (Thunder): Four years, $84,000,000 (story)
Gorgui Dieng (Timberwolves): Four years, $62,800,000 (story)
Dennis Schroder (Hawks): Four years, $62,000,000 (story)
Cody Zeller (Hornets): Four years, $55,625,000 (story)
I thinking that it will be between 62 mil and 84 mil.
Don't forget Gary Harris just got 4 years, $84 million.
If I had to guess, I'd say 4 years, $70 mil would be reasonably fair for both sides and if a final deal is agreed upon it will be within +/- 10 mil of that, which is in the same ballpark as what you said.
GH was actually "only" 74 million guaranteed
Harris’ $74 million guaranteed changes it to $18.5 million per year. My understanding is the incentives to get it to $84 are STEEP.
https://twitter.com/HPbasketball/status/917051135164157952
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Have a feeling Danny will stick with rozier, let smart walk to make room for Davis
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Don't see a reason to extend Smart unless it is on the low end of his salary range. Available cap space next offseason will be limited. Restricted free agents are drawing even less interest than usual. Good defense, limited offense players don't draw big offers.
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Have a feeling Danny will stick with rozier, let smart walk to make room for Davis
That's disturbing if that's the case - which I don't believe it is.
We're over the cap, so it's not like we can easily replace what Smarts brings to the table in free agency. If there's a deal to be reached now, it should get done.
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Have a feeling Danny will stick with rozier, let smart walk to make room for Davis
This couldn't be any further from the truth lol.
Have a feeling Danny will stick with rozier, let smart walk to make room for Davis
That's disturbing if that's the case - which I don't believe it is.
We're over the cap, so it's not like we can easily replace what Smarts brings to the table in free agency. If there's a deal to be reached now, it should get done.
Why would Ainge let Smart walk for absolutely nothing, without a tendered offer, when we're going to be pretty much over the max anyways.
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Where did Aldridge say this?
If true, I'm pumped.
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The NUCLEAR WINTER IS COMING.....(got reference)
Teams are not flush with $$ anymore and so many bad contracts have been given away since the cap rise. DA is smart and may just wait bc the teams that would have given Smart a large contract are dropping like flies and this summer has some REALLY good FA's.
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Lock him up to Harris money. He is just as good a player, if not better overall.
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If his shot is indeed fixed and he keep hitting shots then indeed we are going to have to pay him. It is early but with his improved athletic ability and speed, coupled with his tenacity and fire and a reliable shot ( it is early) I think he is a solid keeper.
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He really was asking for someone to do the math here. He said it will be similar to what Ross got for the Raptors. 3 years 33 million, however that was in 2015.
Whatever the percentage of the cap was in 2015, figure out the cap increase and that's around what Smart will get. So what closer to 14 million per year.
Link? Or at least tell us WHERE he said it.
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If it goes to restricted free agency who would be the C's biggest threat at overpaying for him? Sixers? They'll have plenty of cap space next summer.
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Shams is reporting that there have not been any extension talks with Smart.
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If it goes to restricted free agency who would be the C's biggest threat at overpaying for him? Sixers? They'll have plenty of cap space next summer.
Sixers wouldn't want Smart. They need shooters around Simmons.
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If it goes to restricted free agency who would be the C's biggest threat at overpaying for him? Sixers? They'll have plenty of cap space next summer.
Lakers (if they can't create the next Lebron super team), Mavericks (if they miss out on Boogie and move on from Seth Curry), Bulls, and Hawks.
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If we get a similar percentage of the cap to the ross contract (aka 13-15 mil a year now) for Smart, I'm doing backflips. In a world where Evan Turner gets what he got, I'm absolutely fine with Smart for that number.
The thing is this isn't actually the same world as when Evan Turner got his contract. the cap is expanding much slower, there's not nearly as much money in the league.
If we get a similar percentage of the cap to the ross contract (aka 13-15 mil a year now) for Smart, I'm doing backflips. In a world where Evan Turner gets what he got, I'm absolutely fine with Smart for that number.
Right.
A common misconception about Evan Turner, or Crabbe receiving said overloaded contracts, is because the cap was supposedly going to increase by a few million, thus freeing up extra room for other teams.
Unfortunately, for us, that isn't the case, and I fear the Mavs will look at DSJ/MS as an unstoppable backcourt and overpay, especially with Smart's ties to his hometown Dallas.
Thats what I'm worried about. The Sixers and the Bucks.
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Sign for solid money or bank on Brown/Rozier to fill in the gap, and save the money for Brown's extension.
We might have to choose next offseason. Smart might need to take a kind deal now or be gone at the deadline.
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Here are the rookie contract extensions from last year:
C.J. McCollum (Trail Blazers): Four years, $106,633,450 (story)
Steven Adams (Thunder): Four years, $100,000,000 (story)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks): Four years, $100,000,000 (story)
Rudy Gobert (Jazz): Four years, $94,000,000 (story)
Victor Oladipo (Thunder): Four years, $84,000,000 (story)
Gorgui Dieng (Timberwolves): Four years, $62,800,000 (story)
Dennis Schroder (Hawks): Four years, $62,000,000 (story)
Cody Zeller (Hornets): Four years, $55,625,000 (story)
I thinking that it will be between 62 mil and 84 mil.
Don't forget Gary Harris just got 4 years, $84 million.
If I had to guess, I'd say 4 years, $70 mil would be reasonably fair for both sides and if a final deal is agreed upon it will be within +/- 10 mil of that, which is in the same ballpark as what you said.
GH was actually "only" 74 million guaranteed
Harris’ $74 million guaranteed changes it to $18.5 million per year. My understanding is the incentives to get it to $84 are STEEP.
https://twitter.com/HPbasketball/status/917051135164157952
Ahh, thanks for sharing that, TP
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Smart has the most replaceable skill-set on the team. Let him walk if he demands anymore than 8 million a year.
Brad has never struggled to pull backup pointguards out of thin air, and Danny has never struggled to identify defensive guards with good hustle in the draft.
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Does anyone really believe Smart will get an extension?
Personally, I think he's WAY overrated- awful shot selection, no real moves, but yes, an excellent defender though too aggressive/borderline dirty and refs don't like him. I'd get rid of him.
BUT- to the fans who do like him- haven't you seen Ainge over the years with his revolving door and his constant trading? As soon as a player is due to be paid what he's worth it's see you later. And then of course the bs from Ainge about how much he loved the player, what a difficult decision it was, blah blah blah.
Fan for 50 years, but I've lost interest until Ainge is gone.
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Smart has the most replaceable skill-set on the team. Let him walk if he demands any more than 8 million a year.
Brad has never struggled to pull a backup point guard out of thin air, and Danny has never struggled to identify defensive guards with good hustle in the draft.
Smart is by far our best defender, and even further, our best perimeter defender. So it is not just a backup PG question. Guy defends 3,5 positions. Also, after losing our 2 good/great perimeter defenders last offseason, I think Marcus is safe.
After a lot of thought this past year, bouncing his next salary from 8 to 20 mil per, I would be happy with him getting a 54-56 mil deal for 4 years. Ok, with 62/4. It is a starters money, I know it is much, but I think he pays that back with his play in the next 4 years.
He gets his safety, a bit below of what I think next years market will be, plays on a contender and is respected by the fans and media.
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Does anyone really believe Smart will get an extension?
Personally, I think he's WAY overrated- awful shot selection, no real moves, but yes, an excellent defender though too aggressive/borderline dirty and refs don't like him. I'd get rid of him.
BUT- to the fans who do like him- haven't you seen Ainge over the years with his revolving door and his constant trading? As soon as a player is due to be paid what he's worth it's see you later. And then of course the bs from Ainge about how much he loved the player, what a difficult decision it was, blah blah blah.
Fan for 50 years, but I've lost interest until Ainge is gone.
Well don't let the screen door hit you on the way out. ;D
Smart is a getting an extension and it is well-deserved. He is the leader on the 2nd unit right now and he impacts the game in many ways other than shooting, though even his shot looks better after losing all that weight, and he drives to the rim too.
Smart has the most replaceable skill-set on the team. Let him walk if he demands anymore than 8 million a year.
Huh? Smart is a unique player with unique skills and HEART. After parting with Crowder and Bradley, this team can't afford to lose Smart on the defensive end. He is bargain at 12 million/year in today's market.
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My guess is 20+
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Does anyone really believe Smart will get an extension?
Personally, I think he's WAY overrated- awful shot selection, no real moves, but yes, an excellent defender though too aggressive/borderline dirty and refs don't like him. I'd get rid of him.
BUT- to the fans who do like him- haven't you seen Ainge over the years with his revolving door and his constant trading? As soon as a player is due to be paid what he's worth it's see you later. And then of course the bs from Ainge about how much he loved the player, what a difficult decision it was, blah blah blah.
Fan for 50 years, but I've lost interest until Ainge is gone.
Why are you still here?
You think a GM cannot love a player and trade him at the same time? These things happen all the time. The GMs get paid to do their job, and if that job includes trading favorites, then they will do it or lose their job.
I can't believe these kind of people exists smh.
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Does anyone really believe Smart will get an extension?
Personally, I think he's WAY overrated- awful shot selection, no real moves, but yes, an excellent defender though too aggressive/borderline dirty and refs don't like him. I'd get rid of him.
BUT- to the fans who do like him- haven't you seen Ainge over the years with his revolving door and his constant trading? As soon as a player is due to be paid what he's worth it's see you later. And then of course the bs from Ainge about how much he loved the player, what a difficult decision it was, blah blah blah.
Fan for 50 years, but I've lost interest until Ainge is gone.
Keeping Evan Turner for $17M/yr or even KO at $12.5M/yr would have totally screwed up our cap. Smart is in a different situation since we are already going to be over the cap and can keep him for whatever DA thinks he is worth.
However, if some team throws him a huge offer sheet, then it is very likely we won't match. As much of a leader Smart is of the 2nd unit, he is still in the 2nd unit (at least on our team) and we can't be paying [major] repeater tax dollars unless the player(s) to who we are paying big money make us legit championship contenders.
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bottom line for me is that Smart needs to be on this team long term.
At the end of games he has proven to be a game changing. Outside of the games elite top ten talents their is not another player I would want on the court in the final 2 min of a close game.
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Can we change the thread title at this point?
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Can we change the thread title at this point?
Yeah I think this is just clickbait.
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Can we change the thread title at this point?
Yeah I think this is just clickbait.
KGLL owes us an explanation.
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Can we change the thread title at this point?
Yeah I think this is just clickbait.
Clickbait?
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/20974651/nba-clock-ticking-marcus-smart-extension
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http://www.nba.com/article/2017/10/09/morning-tip-extensions-2014-draft-picks-andrew-wiggins-jabari-parker-joel-embiid#/ (http://www.nba.com/article/2017/10/09/morning-tip-extensions-2014-draft-picks-andrew-wiggins-jabari-parker-joel-embiid#/)
Here is the link in question. There is a great site called NBA.com.
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http://www.nba.com/article/2017/10/09/morning-tip-extensions-2014-draft-picks-andrew-wiggins-jabari-parker-joel-embiid#/ (http://www.nba.com/article/2017/10/09/morning-tip-extensions-2014-draft-picks-andrew-wiggins-jabari-parker-joel-embiid#/)
Here is the link in question. There is a great site called NBA.com.
Thank you for finally providing any link in which Aldridge discusses Smart. However, it says nothing in the article that would lead to the thread title.
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Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics: Smart has been a significant part of Boston’s rotation for three seasons, though he’s only started 72 of the 207 games in which he’s played. And he’ll come off the bench again this season behind Kyrie Irving. No longer needing to save up to re-sign Isaiah Thomas, the Celtics almost certainly will get something done with Smart, maybe along the lines of what Toronto gave Terrence Ross. Like Smart, Ross was a lottery pick -- in 2012 -- and as part of the Raptors’ rotation before being traded to Orlando last season. He got three years and $33 million from Toronto in 2015; Smart will probably get more per year.
That's Aldridge speculating, not news.
Change the thread title.
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No longer needing to save up to re-sign Isaiah Thomas, the Celtics almost certainly will get something done with Smart, maybe along the lines of what Toronto gave Terrence Ross. Like Smart, Ross was a lottery pick -- in 2012 -- and as part of the Raptors’ rotation before being traded to Orlando last season. He got three years and $33 million from Toronto in 2015; Smart will probably get more per year.
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Smart said Ainge called today to say, "he'd get back to us. But he hasn't given us any numbers (re: an extension)." Deadline is Monday.
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Adam KaufmanVerified account @AdamMKaufman
Danny Ainge told @NBCSBoston he and Marcus Smart's agent have started discussing numbers regarding a possible contract extension. #Celtics
#progress
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If we get a similar percentage of the cap to the ross contract (aka 13-15 mil a year now) for Smart, I'm doing backflips. In a world where Evan Turner gets what he got, I'm absolutely fine with Smart for that number.
The thing is this isn't actually the same world as when Evan Turner got his contract. the cap is expanding much slower, there's not nearly as much money in the league.
Correct.
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If we get a similar percentage of the cap to the ross contract (aka 13-15 mil a year now) for Smart, I'm doing backflips. In a world where Evan Turner gets what he got, I'm absolutely fine with Smart for that number.
The thing is this isn't actually the same world as when Evan Turner got his contract. the cap is expanding much slower, there's not nearly as much money in the league.
Correct.
Only sort of correct. It’s still expanding healthily — cap will increase around 10% over the next two seasons, which was the same projected increase as the summer when Turner signed. There isn’t the big bump that created so many teams flush with cap space, but there will be available money next summer for some teams to spend, and the free agent pool might dry up more quickly than some think.
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I hope we do something like we did with Rondo back in a day. Bit below market, but promised big role/minutes.
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I hope we do something like we did with Rondo back in a day. Bit below market, but promised big role/minutes.
Below market, with trade bonus and million dollar all NBA defense bonus, dpoy bonus, championship bonus.
Done.
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Well if an extension is going to happen it better happen fast. October 16th deadline is almost upon us.
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If we get a similar percentage of the cap to the ross contract (aka 13-15 mil a year now) for Smart, I'm doing backflips. In a world where Evan Turner gets what he got, I'm absolutely fine with Smart for that number.
The thing is this isn't actually the same world as when Evan Turner got his contract. the cap is expanding much slower, there's not nearly as much money in the league.
Correct.
Only sort of correct. It’s still expanding healthily — cap will increase around 10% over the next two seasons, which was the same projected increase as the summer when Turner signed. There isn’t the big bump that created so many teams flush with cap space, but there will be available money next summer for some teams to spend, and the free agent pool might dry up more quickly than some think.
Yes the cap is still increasing at a healthy rate, but that rate is most definitively not the same as the rate the summer turner signed. That summer that cap went from 70 million the year before to 94 million that summer and increase of 34%! Last summer it went from 94 million to 99 million an increase of just over 5%. Next year the cap is projected at 108 million so a 1 year increase of 6%. The 2016 offseason was a clear outlier. Forget % increase though, look at the total money available and total bidding teams. I haven't done the math, but guys like Dany Leorux and Nate Duncan have and they project something like 300-400 million in cap space this coming summer, as opposes to 1 billion the year Evan Turner signed. Its also worth noting that the money is concentration around 4-6 teams as opposed to 2016 when closer to 20 had significant cap space. This means that Smarts suitors will be narrowly defined generally among very bad teams, not all of which will even need a Pg, and most of which will focus on UFA's first. All of this doesn't mean Smart won't get a suitor, all it takes is one, but the odds are in the Celtics favor.
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here comes a brink truck....
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If we get a similar percentage of the cap to the ross contract (aka 13-15 mil a year now) for Smart, I'm doing backflips. In a world where Evan Turner gets what he got, I'm absolutely fine with Smart for that number.
The thing is this isn't actually the same world as when Evan Turner got his contract. the cap is expanding much slower, there's not nearly as much money in the league.
Correct.
Only sort of correct. It’s still expanding healthily — cap will increase around 10% over the next two seasons, which was the same projected increase as the summer when Turner signed. There isn’t the big bump that created so many teams flush with cap space, but there will be available money next summer for some teams to spend, and the free agent pool might dry up more quickly than some think.
Yes the cap is still increasing at a healthy rate, but that rate is most definitively not the same as the rate the summer turner signed. That summer that cap went from 70 million the year before to 94 million that summer and increase of 34%! Last summer it went from 94 million to 99 million an increase of just over 5%. Next year the cap is projected at 108 million so a 1 year increase of 6%. The 2016 offseason was a clear outlier. Forget % increase though, look at the total money available and total bidding teams. I haven't done the math, but guys like Dany Leorux and Nate Duncan have and they project something like 300-400 million in cap space this coming summer, as opposes to 1 billion the year Evan Turner signed. Its also worth noting that the money is concentration around 4-6 teams as opposed to 2016 when closer to 20 had significant cap space. This means that Smarts suitors will be narrowly defined generally among very bad teams, not all of which will even need a Pg, and most of which will focus on UFA's first. All of this doesn't mean Smart won't get a suitor, all it takes is one, but the odds are in the Celtics favor.
Next year's cap projection is only 101M. The following year is when it is projected to be 108M.
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If we get a similar percentage of the cap to the ross contract (aka 13-15 mil a year now) for Smart, I'm doing backflips. In a world where Evan Turner gets what he got, I'm absolutely fine with Smart for that number.
The thing is this isn't actually the same world as when Evan Turner got his contract. the cap is expanding much slower, there's not nearly as much money in the league.
Correct.
Only sort of correct. It’s still expanding healthily — cap will increase around 10% over the next two seasons, which was the same projected increase as the summer when Turner signed. There isn’t the big bump that created so many teams flush with cap space, but there will be available money next summer for some teams to spend, and the free agent pool might dry up more quickly than some think.
Yes the cap is still increasing at a healthy rate, but that rate is most definitively not the same as the rate the summer turner signed. That summer that cap went from 70 million the year before to 94 million that summer and increase of 34%! Last summer it went from 94 million to 99 million an increase of just over 5%. Next year the cap is projected at 108 million so a 1 year increase of 6%. The 2016 offseason was a clear outlier. Forget % increase though, look at the total money available and total bidding teams. I haven't done the math, but guys like Dany Leorux and Nate Duncan have and they project something like 300-400 million in cap space this coming summer, as opposes to 1 billion the year Evan Turner signed. Its also worth noting that the money is concentration around 4-6 teams as opposed to 2016 when closer to 20 had significant cap space. This means that Smarts suitors will be narrowly defined generally among very bad teams, not all of which will even need a Pg, and most of which will focus on UFA's first. All of this doesn't mean Smart won't get a suitor, all it takes is one, but the odds are in the Celtics favor.
Philly will make a long and large offer. He fits a need there for defense. .
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If we get a similar percentage of the cap to the ross contract (aka 13-15 mil a year now) for Smart, I'm doing backflips. In a world where Evan Turner gets what he got, I'm absolutely fine with Smart for that number.
The thing is this isn't actually the same world as when Evan Turner got his contract. the cap is expanding much slower, there's not nearly as much money in the league.
Correct.
Only sort of correct. It’s still expanding healthily — cap will increase around 10% over the next two seasons, which was the same projected increase as the summer when Turner signed. There isn’t the big bump that created so many teams flush with cap space, but there will be available money next summer for some teams to spend, and the free agent pool might dry up more quickly than some think.
Yes the cap is still increasing at a healthy rate, but that rate is most definitively not the same as the rate the summer turner signed. That summer that cap went from 70 million the year before to 94 million that summer and increase of 34%! Last summer it went from 94 million to 99 million an increase of just over 5%. Next year the cap is projected at 108 million so a 1 year increase of 6%. The 2016 offseason was a clear outlier. Forget % increase though, look at the total money available and total bidding teams. I haven't done the math, but guys like Dany Leorux and Nate Duncan have and they project something like 300-400 million in cap space this coming summer, as opposes to 1 billion the year Evan Turner signed. Its also worth noting that the money is concentration around 4-6 teams as opposed to 2016 when closer to 20 had significant cap space. This means that Smarts suitors will be narrowly defined generally among very bad teams, not all of which will even need a Pg, and most of which will focus on UFA's first. All of this doesn't mean Smart won't get a suitor, all it takes is one, but the odds are in the Celtics favor.
Philly will make a long and large offer. He fits a need there for defense. .
They might, but there are guys ahead of him. Avery Bradley and KCP will both likely receive offers from Phili before they get to Smart. They are looking for a starting 2 guard who can play off the ball, not smarts strength. Lakers will be looking at bigger names, Nets have a PG in Russel and some decent back court prospects but maybe. Bull are the one to watch for, but again they will throw money at every other UFA first.
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If we get a similar percentage of the cap to the ross contract (aka 13-15 mil a year now) for Smart, I'm doing backflips. In a world where Evan Turner gets what he got, I'm absolutely fine with Smart for that number.
The thing is this isn't actually the same world as when Evan Turner got his contract. the cap is expanding much slower, there's not nearly as much money in the league.
Correct.
Only sort of correct. It’s still expanding healthily — cap will increase around 10% over the next two seasons, which was the same projected increase as the summer when Turner signed. There isn’t the big bump that created so many teams flush with cap space, but there will be available money next summer for some teams to spend, and the free agent pool might dry up more quickly than some think.
Yes the cap is still increasing at a healthy rate, but that rate is most definitively not the same as the rate the summer turner signed. That summer that cap went from 70 million the year before to 94 million that summer and increase of 34%! Last summer it went from 94 million to 99 million an increase of just over 5%. Next year the cap is projected at 108 million so a 1 year increase of 6%. The 2016 offseason was a clear outlier. Forget % increase though, look at the total money available and total bidding teams. I haven't done the math, but guys like Dany Leorux and Nate Duncan have and they project something like 300-400 million in cap space this coming summer, as opposes to 1 billion the year Evan Turner signed. Its also worth noting that the money is concentration around 4-6 teams as opposed to 2016 when closer to 20 had significant cap space. This means that Smarts suitors will be narrowly defined generally among very bad teams, not all of which will even need a Pg, and most of which will focus on UFA's first. All of this doesn't mean Smart won't get a suitor, all it takes is one, but the odds are in the Celtics favor.
Philly will make a long and large offer. He fits a need there for defense. .
Very doubtful. They don't need a poor shooter on the court with Simmons. They have Covington for perimeter defense.
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If we get a similar percentage of the cap to the ross contract (aka 13-15 mil a year now) for Smart, I'm doing backflips. In a world where Evan Turner gets what he got, I'm absolutely fine with Smart for that number.
The thing is this isn't actually the same world as when Evan Turner got his contract. the cap is expanding much slower, there's not nearly as much money in the league.
Correct.
Only sort of correct. It’s still expanding healthily — cap will increase around 10% over the next two seasons, which was the same projected increase as the summer when Turner signed. There isn’t the big bump that created so many teams flush with cap space, but there will be available money next summer for some teams to spend, and the free agent pool might dry up more quickly than some think.
Yes the cap is still increasing at a healthy rate, but that rate is most definitively not the same as the rate the summer turner signed. That summer that cap went from 70 million the year before to 94 million that summer and increase of 34%! Last summer it went from 94 million to 99 million an increase of just over 5%. Next year the cap is projected at 108 million so a 1 year increase of 6%. The 2016 offseason was a clear outlier. Forget % increase though, look at the total money available and total bidding teams. I haven't done the math, but guys like Dany Leorux and Nate Duncan have and they project something like 300-400 million in cap space this coming summer, as opposes to 1 billion the year Evan Turner signed. Its also worth noting that the money is concentration around 4-6 teams as opposed to 2016 when closer to 20 had significant cap space. This means that Smarts suitors will be narrowly defined generally among very bad teams, not all of which will even need a Pg, and most of which will focus on UFA's first. All of this doesn't mean Smart won't get a suitor, all it takes is one, but the odds are in the Celtics favor.
Philly will make a long and large offer. He fits a need there for defense. .
Very doubtful. They don't need a poor shooter on the court with Simmons. They have Covington for perimeter defense.
What if he is not a poor shooter anymore?
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What if he is not a poor shooter anymore?
You sign him. This was the biggest flaw in his game. It is early to tell.
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What if he is not a poor shooter anymore?
You sign him. This was the biggest flaw in his game. It is early to tell.
Yes, what I mean is that maybe he improves so much this year that somebody offers him a max contract in 2018 and we have to match... So getting him signed at 16-20 million could be wiser.
We'll have to give Irving a max contract in 2019 and Brown's extension will also come soon, so our salary cap situation may get worse. I trust our front office a lot, but numbers don't lie.
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What if he is not a poor shooter anymore?
You sign him. This was the biggest flaw in his game. It is early to tell.
Yes, what I mean is that maybe he improves so much this year that somebody offers him a max contract in 2018 and we have to match... So getting him signed at 16-20 million could be wiser.
We'll have to give Irving a max contract in 2019 and Brown's extension will also come soon, so our salary cap situation may get worse. I trust our front office a lot, but numbers don't lie.
We won't be able to afford Smart at $20M/yr, regardless, so we might as well wait it out and see what the market will bear. As it stands, Smart is a back-up - a very good back-up, but a back-up, nonetheless - and no team can afford to pay a player who isn't starting $20M/yr.
Unfortunately for all of us Smart-lovers, we may end up losing him if a team like the Nets or Bulls offer him a lot of money. Luckily, though, it is a pretty strong FA market and (as others have mentioned) money for non-star players isn't as good as it has been the last two years.
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If we get a similar percentage of the cap to the ross contract (aka 13-15 mil a year now) for Smart, I'm doing backflips. In a world where Evan Turner gets what he got, I'm absolutely fine with Smart for that number.
The thing is this isn't actually the same world as when Evan Turner got his contract. the cap is expanding much slower, there's not nearly as much money in the league.
Correct.
Only sort of correct. It’s still expanding healthily — cap will increase around 10% over the next two seasons, which was the same projected increase as the summer when Turner signed. There isn’t the big bump that created so many teams flush with cap space, but there will be available money next summer for some teams to spend, and the free agent pool might dry up more quickly than some think.
Yes the cap is still increasing at a healthy rate, but that rate is most definitively not the same as the rate the summer turner signed. That summer that cap went from 70 million the year before to 94 million that summer and increase of 34%! Last summer it went from 94 million to 99 million an increase of just over 5%. Next year the cap is projected at 108 million so a 1 year increase of 6%. The 2016 offseason was a clear outlier. Forget % increase though, look at the total money available and total bidding teams. I haven't done the math, but guys like Dany Leorux and Nate Duncan have and they project something like 300-400 million in cap space this coming summer, as opposes to 1 billion the year Evan Turner signed. Its also worth noting that the money is concentration around 4-6 teams as opposed to 2016 when closer to 20 had significant cap space. This means that Smarts suitors will be narrowly defined generally among very bad teams, not all of which will even need a Pg, and most of which will focus on UFA's first. All of this doesn't mean Smart won't get a suitor, all it takes is one, but the odds are in the Celtics favor.
Philly will make a long and large offer. He fits a need there for defense. .
Very doubtful. They don't need a poor shooter on the court with Simmons. They have Covington for perimeter defense.
What if he is not a poor shooter anymore?
What are the chances of that happening? Smart shot 35.9 fg% and 28.3 3p% last season. Over his 3 NBA seasons, he's shooting 35.8 and 29.1. In both college seasons, he shot around 29 3p%. That is some really poor shooting to overcome in a single offseason. Even if he shoots somewhat better this season, are you really going trust that it is representative of him improving rather than an aberration?
If Embiid is healthy and they have Covington, they don't need Smart for defense. If Embiid isn't healthy, their rebuild needs a lot more work and it wouldn't be smart to invest in Smart.
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@Jambr: The question of Smart being affordable was not my purpose, but to think about when he would be cheaper to keep with us. I'm with you, 2018 free agency will have many heavyweights and we could resign/match an offer sheet for less money. But it may be too risky if Smart keeps improving as he seems to be doing this preseason, in his body (thinner) and his shot (more accurate and better selected).
@Tazz: I've never been confident is his improvement until this preseason. The shots are not only falling, but his mechanics have changed quite a lot with many hours of working (and maybe an autoemployed shooting coach). I do think he will be much better...but yes, let's wait and see. Because a much better Smart is a tricky weapon for us, given his future free agency and our complicated salary situation.
Thanks for your opinions, very appreciated.
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If we get a similar percentage of the cap to the ross contract (aka 13-15 mil a year now) for Smart, I'm doing backflips. In a world where Evan Turner gets what he got, I'm absolutely fine with Smart for that number.
The thing is this isn't actually the same world as when Evan Turner got his contract. the cap is expanding much slower, there's not nearly as much money in the league.
Correct.
Only sort of correct. It’s still expanding healthily — cap will increase around 10% over the next two seasons, which was the same projected increase as the summer when Turner signed. There isn’t the big bump that created so many teams flush with cap space, but there will be available money next summer for some teams to spend, and the free agent pool might dry up more quickly than some think.
Yes the cap is still increasing at a healthy rate, but that rate is most definitively not the same as the rate the summer turner signed. That summer that cap went from 70 million the year before to 94 million that summer and increase of 34%! Last summer it went from 94 million to 99 million an increase of just over 5%. Next year the cap is projected at 108 million so a 1 year increase of 6%. The 2016 offseason was a clear outlier. Forget % increase though, look at the total money available and total bidding teams. I haven't done the math, but guys like Dany Leorux and Nate Duncan have and they project something like 300-400 million in cap space this coming summer, as opposes to 1 billion the year Evan Turner signed. Its also worth noting that the money is concentration around 4-6 teams as opposed to 2016 when closer to 20 had significant cap space. This means that Smarts suitors will be narrowly defined generally among very bad teams, not all of which will even need a Pg, and most of which will focus on UFA's first. All of this doesn't mean Smart won't get a suitor, all it takes is one, but the odds are in the Celtics favor.
Philly will make a long and large offer. He fits a need there for defense. .
Very doubtful. They don't need a poor shooter on the court with Simmons. They have Covington for perimeter defense.
What if he is not a poor shooter anymore?
What are the chances of that happening? Smart shot 35.9 fg% and 28.3 3p% last season. Over his 3 NBA seasons, he's shooting 35.8 and 29.1. In both college seasons, he shot around 29 3p%. That is some really poor shooting to overcome in a single offseason. Even if he shoots somewhat better this season, are you really going trust that it is representative of him improving rather than an aberration?
If Embiid is healthy and they have Covington, they don't need Smart for defense. If Embiid isn't healthy, their rebuild needs a lot more work and it wouldn't be smart to invest in Smart.
Two things:
1. Everyone on the team is going to look better offensively this year by virtue of the fact that there are now two elite scoring options in Hayward and Irving.
2. Smart doesn't have to become a great or even good shooter from range to become a legitimate offensive threat. Improving his scoring around the rim is another way he could become a bonafide offensive plus.
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If we get a similar percentage of the cap to the ross contract (aka 13-15 mil a year now) for Smart, I'm doing backflips. In a world where Evan Turner gets what he got, I'm absolutely fine with Smart for that number.
The thing is this isn't actually the same world as when Evan Turner got his contract. the cap is expanding much slower, there's not nearly as much money in the league.
Correct.
Only sort of correct. It’s still expanding healthily — cap will increase around 10% over the next two seasons, which was the same projected increase as the summer when Turner signed. There isn’t the big bump that created so many teams flush with cap space, but there will be available money next summer for some teams to spend, and the free agent pool might dry up more quickly than some think.
Yes the cap is still increasing at a healthy rate, but that rate is most definitively not the same as the rate the summer turner signed. That summer that cap went from 70 million the year before to 94 million that summer and increase of 34%! Last summer it went from 94 million to 99 million an increase of just over 5%. Next year the cap is projected at 108 million so a 1 year increase of 6%. The 2016 offseason was a clear outlier. Forget % increase though, look at the total money available and total bidding teams. I haven't done the math, but guys like Dany Leorux and Nate Duncan have and they project something like 300-400 million in cap space this coming summer, as opposes to 1 billion the year Evan Turner signed. Its also worth noting that the money is concentration around 4-6 teams as opposed to 2016 when closer to 20 had significant cap space. This means that Smarts suitors will be narrowly defined generally among very bad teams, not all of which will even need a Pg, and most of which will focus on UFA's first. All of this doesn't mean Smart won't get a suitor, all it takes is one, but the odds are in the Celtics favor.
Philly will make a long and large offer. He fits a need there for defense. .
Very doubtful. They don't need a poor shooter on the court with Simmons. They have Covington for perimeter defense.
What if he is not a poor shooter anymore?
What are the chances of that happening? Smart shot 35.9 fg% and 28.3 3p% last season. Over his 3 NBA seasons, he's shooting 35.8 and 29.1. In both college seasons, he shot around 29 3p%. That is some really poor shooting to overcome in a single offseason. Even if he shoots somewhat better this season, are you really going trust that it is representative of him improving rather than an aberration?
The chances are higher than they are for a lot of poor shooters.
1) He brings a lot of on-court value even when not shooting well, so he’ll continue to have opportunities. Many players who’ve shot as poorly as Smart can’t even see the floor at this point in their careers, so they don’t even get the chance to improve.
2) His coach believes in him, and will let him keep shooting. Maybe there will come a time when that is no longer the case, but he’ll get game reps shooting the 3 for at least another season.
3) While his 3-point shooting hasn’t improved, his free throw shooting has gone from 65% to 78% to 81% in his NBA career. Firstly, 3-point shooting and free throw shooting are positively correlated, for obvious reasons, so it’s not completely unreasonable to think that his jump-shooting will catch up. Secondly, it shows that he likely put in a lot of work into his foul shooting and saw real improvement. Based on his competitive nature, he’s probably putting in similar work to his 3-point shooting.
4) Some of his problem is shot selection. He shot 42% from the corner last year. Merely taking more of those and fewer pull-up 3s could raise his percentage to the low-to-mid 30s, even if he didn’t improve his stroke at all. With an additional shot creator like Hayward on the roster, he might find that himself receiving the ball in better shooting position than in prior years.
Is Smart going to become league-average from 3? Obviously I can’t say. But it certainly wouldn’t shock me if he did. He doesn’t have to be an elite shooter to be an elite player, because he IS an elite defender today.
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Good. We need one defender on this team going forward.
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If we get a similar percentage of the cap to the ross contract (aka 13-15 mil a year now) for Smart, I'm doing backflips. In a world where Evan Turner gets what he got, I'm absolutely fine with Smart for that number.
The thing is this isn't actually the same world as when Evan Turner got his contract. the cap is expanding much slower, there's not nearly as much money in the league.
Correct.
Only sort of correct. It’s still expanding healthily — cap will increase around 10% over the next two seasons, which was the same projected increase as the summer when Turner signed. There isn’t the big bump that created so many teams flush with cap space, but there will be available money next summer for some teams to spend, and the free agent pool might dry up more quickly than some think.
Yes the cap is still increasing at a healthy rate, but that rate is most definitively not the same as the rate the summer turner signed. That summer that cap went from 70 million the year before to 94 million that summer and increase of 34%! Last summer it went from 94 million to 99 million an increase of just over 5%. Next year the cap is projected at 108 million so a 1 year increase of 6%. The 2016 offseason was a clear outlier. Forget % increase though, look at the total money available and total bidding teams. I haven't done the math, but guys like Dany Leorux and Nate Duncan have and they project something like 300-400 million in cap space this coming summer, as opposes to 1 billion the year Evan Turner signed. Its also worth noting that the money is concentration around 4-6 teams as opposed to 2016 when closer to 20 had significant cap space. This means that Smarts suitors will be narrowly defined generally among very bad teams, not all of which will even need a Pg, and most of which will focus on UFA's first. All of this doesn't mean Smart won't get a suitor, all it takes is one, but the odds are in the Celtics favor.
Philly will make a long and large offer. He fits a need there for defense. .
Very doubtful. They don't need a poor shooter on the court with Simmons. They have Covington for perimeter defense.
What if he is not a poor shooter anymore?
What are the chances of that happening? Smart shot 35.9 fg% and 28.3 3p% last season. Over his 3 NBA seasons, he's shooting 35.8 and 29.1. In both college seasons, he shot around 29 3p%. That is some really poor shooting to overcome in a single offseason. Even if he shoots somewhat better this season, are you really going trust that it is representative of him improving rather than an aberration?
The chances are higher than they are for a lot of poor shooters.
1) He brings a lot of on-court value even when not shooting well, so he’ll continue to have opportunities. Many players who’ve shot as poorly as Smart can’t even see the floor at this point in their careers, so they don’t even get the chance to improve.
2) His coach believes in him, and will let him keep shooting. Maybe there will come a time when that is no longer the case, but he’ll get game reps shooting the 3 for at least another season.
3) While his 3-point shooting hasn’t improved, his free throw shooting has gone from 65% to 78% to 81% in his NBA career. Firstly, 3-point shooting and free throw shooting are positively correlated, for obvious reasons, so it’s not completely unreasonable to think that his jump-shooting will catch up. Secondly, it shows that he likely put in a lot of work into his foul shooting and saw real improvement. Based on his competitive nature, he’s probably putting in similar work to his 3-point shooting.
4) Some of his problem is shot selection. He shot 42% from the corner last year. Merely taking more of those and fewer pull-up 3s could raise his percentage to the low-to-mid 30s, even if he didn’t improve his stroke at all. With an additional shot creator like Hayward on the roster, he might find that himself receiving the ball in better shooting position than in prior years.
Is Smart going to become league-average from 3? Obviously I can’t say. But it certainly wouldn’t shock me if he did. He doesn’t have to be an elite shooter to be an elite player, because he IS an elite defender today.
#1 is bang on. Most guys don't get the minutes and opportunities when they are this poor of a shooter. Marcus is different in where he can impact a game in a positive way even with his sometimes poor selection and his brick factory is running at full capacity.
TP
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If we get a similar percentage of the cap to the ross contract (aka 13-15 mil a year now) for Smart, I'm doing backflips. In a world where Evan Turner gets what he got, I'm absolutely fine with Smart for that number.
The thing is this isn't actually the same world as when Evan Turner got his contract. the cap is expanding much slower, there's not nearly as much money in the league.
Correct.
Only sort of correct. It’s still expanding healthily — cap will increase around 10% over the next two seasons, which was the same projected increase as the summer when Turner signed. There isn’t the big bump that created so many teams flush with cap space, but there will be available money next summer for some teams to spend, and the free agent pool might dry up more quickly than some think.
Yes the cap is still increasing at a healthy rate, but that rate is most definitively not the same as the rate the summer turner signed. That summer that cap went from 70 million the year before to 94 million that summer and increase of 34%! Last summer it went from 94 million to 99 million an increase of just over 5%. Next year the cap is projected at 108 million so a 1 year increase of 6%. The 2016 offseason was a clear outlier. Forget % increase though, look at the total money available and total bidding teams. I haven't done the math, but guys like Dany Leorux and Nate Duncan have and they project something like 300-400 million in cap space this coming summer, as opposes to 1 billion the year Evan Turner signed. Its also worth noting that the money is concentration around 4-6 teams as opposed to 2016 when closer to 20 had significant cap space. This means that Smarts suitors will be narrowly defined generally among very bad teams, not all of which will even need a Pg, and most of which will focus on UFA's first. All of this doesn't mean Smart won't get a suitor, all it takes is one, but the odds are in the Celtics favor.
Philly will make a long and large offer. He fits a need there for defense. .
Very doubtful. They don't need a poor shooter on the court with Simmons. They have Covington for perimeter defense.
What if he is not a poor shooter anymore?
What are the chances of that happening? Smart shot 35.9 fg% and 28.3 3p% last season. Over his 3 NBA seasons, he's shooting 35.8 and 29.1. In both college seasons, he shot around 29 3p%. That is some really poor shooting to overcome in a single offseason. Even if he shoots somewhat better this season, are you really going trust that it is representative of him improving rather than an aberration?
The chances are higher than they are for a lot of poor shooters.
1) He brings a lot of on-court value even when not shooting well, so he’ll continue to have opportunities. Many players who’ve shot as poorly as Smart can’t even see the floor at this point in their careers, so they don’t even get the chance to improve.
2) His coach believes in him, and will let him keep shooting. Maybe there will come a time when that is no longer the case, but he’ll get game reps shooting the 3 for at least another season.
3) While his 3-point shooting hasn’t improved, his free throw shooting has gone from 65% to 78% to 81% in his NBA career. Firstly, 3-point shooting and free throw shooting are positively correlated, for obvious reasons, so it’s not completely unreasonable to think that his jump-shooting will catch up. Secondly, it shows that he likely put in a lot of work into his foul shooting and saw real improvement. Based on his competitive nature, he’s probably putting in similar work to his 3-point shooting.
4) Some of his problem is shot selection. He shot 42% from the corner last year. Merely taking more of those and fewer pull-up 3s could raise his percentage to the low-to-mid 30s, even if he didn’t improve his stroke at all. With an additional shot creator like Hayward on the roster, he might find that himself receiving the ball in better shooting position than in prior years.
Is Smart going to become league-average from 3? Obviously I can’t say. But it certainly wouldn’t shock me if he did. He doesn’t have to be an elite shooter to be an elite player, because he IS an elite defender today.
Sure Smart could get better in his shooting over time. However the chance that he improves enough this season where other teams (like the Sixers) would prioritize Smart next offseason is not likely.
CBS wanted Sully to shoot 3s. That's his system but some people just aren't made to be good shooters. Most everyone shoots corner 3s better but there are only 2 corners. If Smart is in the corner that would displace a better 3 point shooter.
Here Pelton discuss Smart's shooting and indicates NBA free throw shooting is nearly as much correlated to 3pt shooting.
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/20789467/kevin-pelton-weekly-mailbag-including-dwight-howard-marcus-smart
Here's a nice article on Smart's shooting. He really shot lousy on wide open 3s the last couple seasons.
http://www.celticshub.com/2017/08/21/smart-bet-marcuss-shot-will-improve-experience/