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Other Discussions => Other / General Sports => Red Sox / MLB => Topic started by: Moranis on September 13, 2017, 04:15:25 PM

Title: More Unlikely - Indians (winning 21 straight) or Dodgers (losing 11 straight)
Post by: Moranis on September 13, 2017, 04:15:25 PM
Being in the greater Cleveland area, the Indians are all the rage right now.  Today they set the AL Record by winning their 21st consecutive game.  They can pass the 1935 Cubs tomorrow against the Royals. 

Until the Dodgers won last night they had lost 11 straight games.  Before that losing streak they were 92-41 (or 69%), which would have put them behind only the 2001 Mariners and 1998 Yankees all time for a 162 game season had they finished out the season on that pace.  The Dodgers still have the best record in baseball by 3.5 games over the Indians and have a 10 game lead in their division on the 3rd best team in the NL.  Even with losing 11 straight games.

So statistically I get that winning 21 games is more unlikely than losing 11 games just because 21 is bigger than 11, but take that out of it and think of it this way.  If a month ago I would have told you the Indians would win at least 21 straight games and the Dodgers would lose 11 straight games, which would you have felt was the least probable.  And vote that way.
Title: Re: More Unlikely - Indians (winning 21 straight) or Dodgers (losing 11 straight)
Post by: Roy H. on September 13, 2017, 04:27:50 PM
Indians all the way. I wouldn't have predicted either, but 21 in a row is ridiculous in any sport. With the Dodgers, I never thought that we were looking at a historically great team, so some sort of regression was probable.
Title: Re: More Unlikely - Indians (winning 21 straight) or Dodgers (losing 11 straight)
Post by: Moranis on September 13, 2017, 04:55:36 PM
Indians all the way. I wouldn't have predicted either, but 21 in a row is ridiculous in any sport. With the Dodgers, I never thought that we were looking at a historically great team, so some sort of regression was probable.
I totally get that and teams lose 11 games in a row frequently enough that it isn't rare, but the best team in baseball losing 11 games in a row is pretty crazy.  I'm sure there is some sort of model that accounts for the team, schedule, etc. that probably could have realistically come up with a probability for each (outside of the standard statistics that every game is a 50% chance), but that far exceeds my knowledge. 
Title: Re: More Unlikely - Indians (winning 21 straight) or Dodgers (losing 11 straight)
Post by: Dino Pitino on September 13, 2017, 05:57:58 PM
Quote
If a month ago I would have told you the Indians would win at least 21 straight games and the Dodgers would lose 11 straight games, which would you have felt was the least probable.  And vote that way.

Dodgers. 17 losses in 18 games? No freaking way.
Title: Re: More Unlikely - Indians (winning 21 straight) or Dodgers (losing 11 straight)
Post by: Bucketgetter on September 13, 2017, 06:05:19 PM
Dodgers. Both teams are great, so a huge winning streak isn’t totally out of this world. But for a team that was threatening the MLB all time win record to lose 11 straight, and 17 out of 18? Crazy.

Would it be more unlikely that the Cavaliers win 21 straight or the Celtics lose 11 straight (or 17 out of 18)? I’d definitely say the Celtics losing, really good teams aren’t suppose to lose that much.
Title: Re: More Unlikely - Indians (winning 21 straight) or Dodgers (losing 11 straight)
Post by: Bucketgetter on September 13, 2017, 06:09:02 PM
Indians all the way. I wouldn't have predicted either, but 21 in a row is ridiculous in any sport. With the Dodgers, I never thought that we were looking at a historically great team, so some sort of regression was probable.
I totally get that and teams lose 11 games in a row frequently enough that it isn't rare, but the best team in baseball losing 11 games in a row is pretty crazy.  I'm sure there is some sort of model that accounts for the team, schedule, etc. that probably could have realistically come up with a probability for each (outside of the standard statistics that every game is a 50% chance), but that far exceeds my knowledge.
I mean you could look at the betting lines. Dodgers were huge favorites in so many of those games, especially the ones with Darvish, Hill, or Kershaw pitching. I know when Kershaw faced the Rockies they were like a -280 favorite and lost.
Title: Re: More Unlikely - Indians (winning 21 straight) or Dodgers (losing 11 straight)
Post by: Phantom255x on September 13, 2017, 06:18:26 PM
I take pride in knowing that the last team to beat CLE was the Red Sox (August 23)  8)

But yeah I'm GLAD that if the Sox do make the playoffs, they will likely play Houston in ALDS and not Cleveland. Houston is tough too but not as tough as Cleveland right now... not even close.  :o

But to answer your question, a team with likely the best record in all of MLB having a stretch where they lost 17 of 18 straight games is really, really surprising. Maybe it's just me.
Title: Re: More Unlikely - Indians (winning 21 straight) or Dodgers (losing 11 straight)
Post by: kraidstar on September 13, 2017, 06:24:39 PM
I take pride in knowing that the last team to beat CLE was the Red Sox (August 23)  8)

But yeah I'm GLAD that if the Sox do make the playoffs, they will likely play Houston in ALDS and not Cleveland. Houston is tough too but not as tough as Cleveland right now... not even close.  :o

But to answer your question, a team with likely the best record in all of MLB having a stretch where they lost 17 of 18 straight games is really, really surprising. Maybe it's just me.

Agree. Houston is still relatively unproven, whereas Cleveland came within one run of winning a championship last year.

They look like a team that has "it." AKA heart.

And Kluber in the playoffs reminds me a lot of Bumgarner a few years ago. He's so good he could win a team two or three games in a series on his own.

They aren't a team I want to tangle with.
Title: Re: More Unlikely - Indians (winning 21 straight) or Dodgers (losing 11 straight)
Post by: Roy H. on September 13, 2017, 06:28:58 PM
I take pride in knowing that the last team to beat CLE was the Red Sox (August 23)  8)

But yeah I'm GLAD that if the Sox do make the playoffs, they will likely play Houston in ALDS and not Cleveland. Houston is tough too but not as tough as Cleveland right now... not even close.  :o

But to answer your question, a team with likely the best record in all of MLB having a stretch where they lost 17 of 18 straight games is really, really surprising. Maybe it's just me.

A team winning 21 games in a row is really surprising, too. So surprising that it's been done zero times previously in the history of the American League, and once (or twice if you count ties) in the history of the professional sport.

Title: Re: More Unlikely - Indians (winning 21 straight) or Dodgers (losing 11 straight)
Post by: saltlover on September 13, 2017, 06:55:50 PM
Cleveland was exponentially less likely to win 21 in a row than the Dodgers lose 11 in a row.  Simple probability theory tells us it's not even close.
Title: Re: More Unlikely - Indians (winning 21 straight) or Dodgers (losing 11 straight)
Post by: Ilikesports17 on September 13, 2017, 07:10:31 PM
Cleveland was exponentially less likely to win 21 in a row than the Dodgers lose 11 in a row.  Simple probability theory tells us it's not even close.
eh. not really.

If we use ****ty number and take the Dodgers win % pre-losing streak as their win probability and the Indians win% pre-winning streak as their win probability.

You end up with (.585)^21 vs. (1-.694)^11
comes out to 1.3E-5 vs. 2.2E-6
or
.0013% for the Tribe and .00022% for the Dodgers

Obviously those win probabilities are kinda bogus but they arent entirely unreasonable.
Title: Re: More Unlikely - Indians (winning 21 straight) or Dodgers (losing 11 straight)
Post by: byennie on September 13, 2017, 07:24:24 PM
Cleveland was exponentially less likely to win 21 in a row than the Dodgers lose 11 in a row.  Simple probability theory tells us it's not even close.

It depends on how you model it, really. If you assume a "hot" team is playing .700 ball, and a cold one is play .500, it comes out roughly the same. About 1 in 2000, or once every 10-20 years worth of games.

If you model them based on their winning percentages going in, you have it backwards. 1 in 500,000 chance of the Dodgers losing 11 in a row. 1 in 250,000 for the Indians.

I think the former is more realistic, and it makes sense for it to happen every ~20 years with a few teams per year capable of it.

Interesting corollary: a .700 team is more likely to sweep a 3 game series than lose game 1.
Title: Re: More Unlikely - Indians (winning 21 straight) or Dodgers (losing 11 straight)
Post by: Donoghus on September 13, 2017, 07:27:03 PM
Cleveland was exponentially less likely to win 21 in a row than the Dodgers lose 11 in a row.  Simple probability theory tells us it's not even close.

It's really this simple.   

CLE by a wide margin here.  6 teams not including CLE.   And 3 of them were in the 1880s.  You just don't see this type of thing

EDIT:  Maybe not that wide or simple.   ;)
Title: Re: More Unlikely - Indians (winning 21 straight) or Dodgers (losing 11 straight)
Post by: saltlover on September 13, 2017, 07:27:56 PM
Cleveland was exponentially less likely to win 21 in a row than the Dodgers lose 11 in a row.  Simple probability theory tells us it's not even close.
eh. not really.

If we use ****ty number and take the Dodgers win % pre-losing streak as their win probability and the Indians win% pre-winning streak as their win probability.

You end up with (.585)^21 vs. (1-.694)^11
comes out to 1.3E-5 vs. 2.2E-6
or
.0013% for the Tribe and .00022% for the Dodgers

Obviously those win probabilities are kinda bogus but they arent entirely unreasonable.

I literally posted what I did immediately after having gotten on a train going the wrong direction on my daily commute.  And it took me four stops to realize it. I don't know what I did wrong in my mental math, but suffice it to say I'm not firing on all cylinders this evening.
Title: Re: More Unlikely - Indians (winning 21 straight) or Dodgers (losing 11 straight)
Post by: byennie on September 13, 2017, 07:29:42 PM
Cleveland was exponentially less likely to win 21 in a row than the Dodgers lose 11 in a row.  Simple probability theory tells us it's not even close.

It's really this simple.   

CLE by a wide margin here.

Right, except for actual math =).
Title: Re: More Unlikely - Indians (winning 21 straight) or Dodgers (losing 11 straight)
Post by: Donoghus on September 13, 2017, 07:31:18 PM
Cleveland was exponentially less likely to win 21 in a row than the Dodgers lose 11 in a row.  Simple probability theory tells us it's not even close.

It's really this simple.   

CLE by a wide margin here.

Right, except for actual math =).

Sure.  But how many 11 game losing streaks have you seen in the history of baseball?  Plenty.  Maybe much less like with upper echelon teams but you can count the number of teams that have done what CLE just achieved with less than two hands (one depending on how you fall with the tie thing)
Title: Re: More Unlikely - Indians (winning 21 straight) or Dodgers (losing 11 straight)
Post by: byennie on September 13, 2017, 07:58:55 PM
Cleveland was exponentially less likely to win 21 in a row than the Dodgers lose 11 in a row.  Simple probability theory tells us it's not even close.

It's really this simple.   

CLE by a wide margin here.

Right, except for actual math =).

Sure.  But how many 11 game losing streaks have you seen in the history of baseball?  Plenty.  Maybe much less like with upper echelon teams but you can count the number of teams that have done what CLE just achieved with less than two hands (one depending on how you fall with the tie thing)

Not by the best team in the league. That's the point. If the worst team in the league lost 11 in a row, it wouldn't be a big deal.

The opposite is true, too: A top team is more likely to win 21 in a row than the worst team winning 11 in a row.
Title: Re: More Unlikely - Indians (winning 21 straight) or Dodgers (losing 11 straight)
Post by: Ilikesports17 on September 13, 2017, 08:01:03 PM
Cleveland was exponentially less likely to win 21 in a row than the Dodgers lose 11 in a row.  Simple probability theory tells us it's not even close.

It's really this simple.   

CLE by a wide margin here.

Right, except for actual math =).

Sure.  But how many 11 game losing streaks have you seen in the history of baseball?  Plenty.  Maybe much less like with upper echelon teams but you can count the number of teams that have done what CLE just achieved with less than two hands (one depending on how you fall with the tie thing)
Yeah I think keeping the win probability consistent through 21 games is obviously a huge source of error.

That said I'd be willing to bet that 0 teams have had 11 game losing streaks after playing 100+ games at a 69+% pace. This team was projecting to maybe break the all time win record. Prior to the 17 game skid and even after the first 5 game losing streak were pushing a .700 %
Title: Re: More Unlikely - Indians (winning 21 straight) or Dodgers (losing 11 straight)
Post by: Donoghus on September 13, 2017, 08:05:58 PM
Cleveland was exponentially less likely to win 21 in a row than the Dodgers lose 11 in a row.  Simple probability theory tells us it's not even close.

It's really this simple.   

CLE by a wide margin here.

Right, except for actual math =).

Sure.  But how many 11 game losing streaks have you seen in the history of baseball?  Plenty.  Maybe much less like with upper echelon teams but you can count the number of teams that have done what CLE just achieved with less than two hands (one depending on how you fall with the tie thing)

Not by the best team in the league. That's the point. If the worst team in the league lost 11 in a row, it wouldn't be a big deal.

The opposite is true, too: A top team is more likely to win 21 in a row than the worst team winning 11 in a row.

Oh for sure.  Not denying that.  Even said so with upper echelon teams.  I just think winning 20+ games (regardless of who you are) is insanely difficult to do in a sport like baseball where the day to day stuff is so up & down in that sport.  Impresses me more than losing streaks. Even by good teams.

I'll leave the probability stuff up to you guys.  I admit I was taking SL's word as gold there (which is almost always spot on) but seemed sound to me.  I just look at the history of baseball and come across far more impressed with what CLE has accomplished that what the Dodgers have blundered the past couple of weeks
Title: Re: More Unlikely - Indians (winning 21 straight) or Dodgers (losing 11 straight)
Post by: byennie on September 13, 2017, 08:26:27 PM
Oh for sure.  Not denying that.  Even said so with upper echelon teams.  I just think winning 20+ games (regardless of who you are) is insanely difficult to do in a sport like baseball where the day to day stuff is so up & down in that sport.  Impresses me more than losing streaks. Even by good teams.

I'll leave the probability stuff up to you guys.  I admit I was taking SL's word as gold there (which is almost spot on) but seemed sound to me.  I just look at the history of baseball and come across far more impressed with what CLE has accomplished that what the Dodgers have blundered the past couple of weeks

Cool, yeah I can buy that. There's also the whole psychology of it. We can throw around numbers and percentages, but you could argue that it's a lot harder to maintain a high level for that long. In other words, "being" a .750 team with some luck on top for 4+ weeks is super hard, but pretty much any team can lie down and play .300 ball for 2-3 weeks with some bad luck on top of it.