CelticsStrong
Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: No Nickname on September 02, 2017, 11:01:59 AM
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How big of a contract could Danny offer Smart now without going over the salary cap next year?
Or is it smarter (haha) to see how he plays this year and let the market set Smart's rate and just suck it up and go over the cap if necessary?
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Play the season - see how he does and if he's improved - see what others are willing to pay - then decide if we want to match
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There have been similar threads as of late, but you only do an extension if it is for a guaranteed bargain - like $40M/4yrs.
Next year there won't be nearly as much money in the FA market. There are also a number of marquee free agents who will be taking up most of that money...even non-marquee ones like AB. The new NBA salary spike really only benefits the REALLY good players as most of the salary cap will be taken up by them.
I would love to keep Marcus, but no reason to throw him a crazy contract extension offer now. Remember, we still have his RFA rights and Danny is more equipped now to match than before when we also had IT and AB as FAs to sign.
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I mean, look at Noel
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Pretty sure they'll let market dictate unless they can get a long term home town discount.
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Neither camps want an extension.
Both want to gamble. As both should in this scenario.
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We got rid of it and ab. We Could make a competitive offer
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What contract would Smart want?
What's the highest Ainge would give him?
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Neither camps want an extension.
Both want to gamble. As both should in this scenario.
More of a gamble for the player in most cases. Injury risk being highest. The contract year could possibly always be the last. Barring that, he at least needs to draw a QO.
For the team, market conditions rule. Smart isn't in the tier that will draw most of the FA money. For him, it's MLE for most playoff teams, or higher per year for the losers that lose again on better FA's. In RFA, if I'm the team, unless it's for a star or key player, I don't offer much before letting the player go right ahead and test the market. Matching rights are overwhelmingly powerful. If a team makes a crazy offer, let them. Just let a rival screw their cap.
Market for Marcus will be modest, and nearly nil without a steady 3. Who else targets him?
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There have been similar threads as of late, but you only do an extension if it is for a guaranteed bargain - like $40M/4yrs.
Next year there won't be nearly as much money in the FA market. There are also a number of marquee free agents who will be taking up most of that money...even non-marquee ones like AB. The new NBA salary spike really only benefits the REALLY good players as most of the salary cap will be taken up by them.
I would love to keep Marcus, but no reason to throw him a crazy contract extension offer now. Remember, we still have his RFA rights and Danny is more equipped now to match than before when we also had IT and AB as FAs to sign.
So should Danny offer the 4yr/$40M now and maybe Smart takes it? Or 4yr/$48M?
What are the pros/cons on the salary cap of offering now vs end of season? I'm guessing none since the extension would kick in at the same time regardless?
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There have been similar threads as of late, but you only do an extension if it is for a guaranteed bargain - like $40M/4yrs.
Next year there won't be nearly as much money in the FA market. There are also a number of marquee free agents who will be taking up most of that money...even non-marquee ones like AB. The new NBA salary spike really only benefits the REALLY good players as most of the salary cap will be taken up by them.
I would love to keep Marcus, but no reason to throw him a crazy contract extension offer now. Remember, we still have his RFA rights and Danny is more equipped now to match than before when we also had IT and AB as FAs to sign.
So should Danny offer the 4yr/$40M now and maybe Smart takes it? Or 4yr/$48M?
What are the pros/cons on the salary cap of offering now vs end of season? I'm guessing none since the extension would kick in at the same time regardless?
Well, the pro of Smart accepting an extension now for the Cs would be locking him in at an affordable rate and having him possibly make a 'jump' this season. For Marcus, it would be guaranteed money; if something happens in terms of injury or he shows no improvement in his shooting, then it locks him in at a solid rate without the pressures of contract negotiation.
The cons would be the opposite happening for both respective sides.
I tried to avoid the $48M/4 yrs number because that is a tough one. I think, ultimately, if Smart's agent came to Danny and said, 'that is final offer or we are waiting until the offseason,' Ainge would seriously have to consider it. With the new salary cap, it isn't that astronomical of a figure that he would become untradable. For what Marcus is currently providing (incredible defense, leadership, and playmaking), it's not like he would be that overpaid. He already played over 30mpg for the #1 seed in EC last year. That has to count for something.
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He is a restricted free agent. There's zero reason for the Celtics to do anything with him but let the market set his value. Also, I think the Celtics would need to have the cap space this year to extend him and our cap space is gone. I could be wrong about that but maybe someone with more cap knowledge can comfirm
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There have been similar threads as of late, but you only do an extension if it is for a guaranteed bargain - like $40M/4yrs.
Next year there won't be nearly as much money in the FA market. There are also a number of marquee free agents who will be taking up most of that money...even non-marquee ones like AB. The new NBA salary spike really only benefits the REALLY good players as most of the salary cap will be taken up by them.
I would love to keep Marcus, but no reason to throw him a crazy contract extension offer now. Remember, we still have his RFA rights and Danny is more equipped now to match than before when we also had IT and AB as FAs to sign.
So should Danny offer the 4yr/$40M now and maybe Smart takes it? Or 4yr/$48M?
What are the pros/cons on the salary cap of offering now vs end of season? I'm guessing none since the extension would kick in at the same time regardless?
Well, the pro of Smart accepting an extension now for the Cs would be locking him in at an affordable rate and having him possibly make a 'jump' this season. For Marcus, it would be guaranteed money; if something happens in terms of injury or he shows no improvement in his shooting, then it locks him in at a solid rate without the pressures of contract negotiation.
The cons would be the opposite happening for both respective sides.
I tried to avoid the $48M/4 yrs number because that is a tough one. I think, ultimately, if Smart's agent came to Danny and said, 'that is final offer or we are waiting until the offseason,' Ainge would seriously have to consider it. With the new salary cap, it isn't that astronomical of a figure that he would become untradable. For what Marcus is currently providing (incredible defense, leadership, and playmaking), it's not like he would be that overpaid. He already played over 30mpg for the #1 seed in EC last year. That has to count for something.
Reggie Jackson signed a way-too-rich 5yr/$80M deal two years ago. While different players in terms of skills we'd probably prefer Smart's skills over Jackson's.
Jackson averages $16M/yr but is more like a $10M/yr player. If Smart agreed to $12M/yr I would lock him up. But again I don't know how that impacts the cap this year or maybe not at all. Or how it impacts the cap next year with that increase in salary.
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I would lock him up now for multiple years if possible, not sure if it is. It's hard to put a price on the bulldog, agressive defense, rebounding, and intangibles Smart brings yo the team. 4 years and 48 mil sounds good to me but not sure Smart would go for that. This team already lost some nice defensive players so it's important to retain Smart. I'd like yo see his minutes increase this year.
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4 years 48 million is a bargain for the Celtics and a lot of security for Smart if he can get some or all guaranteed. It's a win win in no uncertain terms.
Letting the market set his value can mean he is gone. He can't be replaced that easily IMO.
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4 years 48 million is a bargain for the Celtics and a lot of security for Smart if he can get some or all guaranteed. It's a win win in no uncertain terms.
Letting the market set his value can mean he is gone. He can't be replaced that easily IMO.
I totally agree with this.
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Unlike other posters, I think that Smart will have a strong market in RFA. He's a good young player. I think the Celtics should try to extend him to any deal which doesn't plunge us into the LT.
The LT line for '18-19 is projected at $121m, and we currently have $107m committed for that year. Therefore, it's reasonable that we could sign Smart to 4 yrs/$48m and still have room for some minimum salaries without going into LT next year.
This type of move makes sense because what matters isn't Smart's exact salary, it's the LT line:
-The C's aren't going to have cap space the next few years anyway. If we end up paying $12m/yr instead of $9m it isn't a huge deal - it doesn't affect our ability to sign FA's.
-On the other hand, if we end up paying $15m per year in RFA, it's a big problem because it puts us into LT territory and sets us up to be paying the repeater tax in a few years. We don't want to be paying the RT just as GS starts to decline just because we cheaped out and tried to save a couple million dollars by letting Smart hit RFA.
Obviously if Smart and his agent think he's making 4 years/$80m next season, then all bets are off on an extension. But if their expectations are in the right ballpark then management should push for an extension that allows us to avoid the LT next season.
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I mean, look at Noel
look at mozgov, ezili, turner, crabb, TT, JR should i continue.
i would love to extend him right now to a reasonable 10-13 mil 4 years, but that is not happening.
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If you could pay him for what he's done now...that could be the way to go. Offer a small handful less than Jordan Clarkson makes. One of those things
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I mean, look at Noel
look at mozgov, ezili, turner, crabb, TT, JR should i continue.
i would love to extend him right now to a reasonable 10-13 mil 4 years, but that is not happening.
Those guys got the crazy money that every FO now realizes was insane. Kelly Olynyk just signed with the Heat for 4yrs/$50M. I think that's pretty comparable to what Smart is worth ("worth" not what he "can get").
I'd offer those same numbers, maybe even $52M so it gets him to $13M/yr and lock him up. He'd have to be very tempted to take that. Not only is it fair money but it shows commitment and he'd feel much safer about not going to another team (he seems to really like Stevens and he's now the longest-tenured Celtic).
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I would love it if we could sign Smart for another 4 years. Based off these comments, I"m assuming the most we can pay without getting in the luxury tax is 4 years 48 mil. I think he's worth more than that but I"m praying that he would accept that offer.
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Pay the man. He's the heart and soul of our defense. The way he QB's a defense as a 6'3" guard is unlike anything I've ever seen. He plays like he's 6'9". Leaves everything on the court. A true Celtic, for life, I hope.
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Pay the man. He's the heart and soul of our defense. The way he QB's a defense as a 6'3" guard is unlike anything I've ever seen. He plays like he's 6'9". Leaves everything on the court. A true Celtic, for life, I hope.
TP! my sentiments exactly, i hope they can lock him up
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I mean, the luxury tax situation completely depends on whether or not the LAL pick conveys next year. If so, we should all be excited to get one of the top 5 prospects in the draft, but sad since it begins our [many] years of being over the tax and, thus, having to make some tough decisions on some of our high end / young players.
Even if Smart does sign a reasonable deal - which I think he will unless his percentages soar this year - we are still going to be right up against that line. That also means not using a full exception (like Baynes this year).
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I mean, the luxury tax situation completely depends on whether or not the LAL pick conveys next year. If so, we should all be excited to get one of the top 5 prospects in the draft, but sad since it begins our [many] years of being over the tax and, thus, having to make some tough decisions on some of our high end / young players.
Even if Smart does sign a reasonable deal - which I think he will unless his percentages soar this year - we are still going to be right up against that line. That also means not using a full exception (like Baynes this year).
Well if we do get a top five pick next June and don't trade it then someone, like Theiss, Larkin, or Nader, isn't coming back. So deduct their salary too.
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I don't want to pay too much for Smart now. If he can take it to the next level this year- great. Pay the man his money.
If not, why overpay for a role player?
I really like Marcus, but I don't want to overextend for someone that will be the 6th/7th best player on a championship team.
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I would sign Smart to a 4/48 in a second. If he doesn't progress at all, it's a slight overpay. If he get's better, it's a steal.
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Danny has done well with RFA. I think he will offer a fair offer before the Deadline. I am hopeful Smart will take it. RFA's did not do well this off season and I don't see it next season either.
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I would sign Smart to a 4/48 in a second. If he doesn't progress at all, it's a slight overpay. If he get's better, it's a steal.
+1
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The sooner we sign Smart, the better. I'd love to see him here long term. Plus, I think the show of loyalty would be a good gesture. On top of that, we'd probably get him on a steal of a contract too.
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I would sign Smart to a 4/48 in a second. If he doesn't progress at all, it's a slight overpay. If he get's better, it's a steal.
Again any thing close to Olynyk's 4/50 is fair in my book.
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I'm hoping they quickly extend him on a fair deal now that I think he will play into a steal, much like AB or Crowder before him. I really like his fit with the way the team is developing. He will be great next to Kyrie.
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Well I think a good contract comp would be Andre Roberson's contract, 3 years 30 million. Andrew Robinson is a very good defender, making all NBA second team this past season. He also isn't a very good three point shooter at only 26% over his career (vs 29% for smart), but is better from the floor at 47% (vs 36% from smart). Smart provides more value with his ability to run the point and distribute the ball but Roberson is taller and a better rebounder. So I'd say 4/40 is the most I would go for Smart.
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Yes. You extend him now on the typical underdeveloped Celtics contract ala (Avery Bradley). Basically pay him before he becomes well rounded. We all know Marcus can affect the game in ways that don't reflect on his stats, so you use that as a bargaining tactic, banking on the fact that he will get much better than the value of his bridge deal in the future.
PS- I love Marcus's energy! Kid rules, and glad he's part of our core moving forward :)
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Extend now. If he outplays his projected value, great. If not, Danny isn't afraid of trading anyone.
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I would sign Smart to a 4/48 in a second. If he doesn't progress at all, it's a slight overpay. If he get's better, it's a steal.
Again any thing close to Olynyk's 4/50 is fair in my book.
I'd probably even consider going to 56... And I don't even have the same Smart-lust as many people around here. That will be a bargain in three years even if his shooting doesn't improve that much
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Unless his shot improves this season he may go the way of the do-do, err I mean KO
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No reason to extend Smart now. Unless you think his 3pt shooting is going to improve significantly, we'll be able to get him for 4yr/48M or less next offseason. Just don't see much of a market for him. Bad teams aren't looking for good defenders that can't shoot. Many of the good teams don't need him either and those that might would be over the cap so couldn't offer him that much.
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Smart is restricted so I would wait until the offseason as you can always match an offer.
The cap has leveled out now too. Not too many teams will have cap space next year, so the market may not be very tempting.
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No reason to extend Smart now. Unless you think his 3pt shooting is going to improve significantly, we'll be able to get him for 4yr/48M or less next offseason. Just don't see much of a market for him. Bad teams aren't looking for good defenders that can't shoot. Many of the good teams don't need him either and those that might would be over the cap so couldn't offer him that much.
There will be plenty teams who either have, or can make space.
If he shoots above 35% he will absolutely get more than 12 per. Evan Turner got 4/70.
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Just curious, do all the let market set value crowd agree he has played at or near the top of his draft class?
Does everyone agree he is a skilled enough defender to be a top 7 rotation player on any team in the league?
Does anyone disagree that he is a top 10 defensive guard right now?
If our beloved Kelly gets 4/50 then Marcus certainly should unless he stinks it up thisx year. The guy is not on the court for his 3pt shooting. Would it be great if he shot 38% from 3? Yes absolutely, but that would push his value to 4/60 or higher. Thats AB territory lol.
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Unless his shot improves this season he may go the way of the do-do, err I mean KO
Why does his shot have to improve. Maybe more consistency, But KO could shoot and he didn't get resigned. People don't value Smarts D. especially now AB is gone.
He also hits shots when needed more often than not. But he's got that junkyard dog, "IT" factor that you need on a championship team. We have enough offensive weapons now with adding Irving(a bit of a wash with IT lgone)Hayward, Morris, and Tatum, and Hopefully Brown improves.
He's also improved his ball handling quite a bit from season 1. And can run the point fairly well when IT was out last season.
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Somebody's gonna offer him Turner money, and if he makes the leap on offense then 20+ per. If we can get him for Olynyk money now I say go for it. But I'd even go as high as 4/56 or 4/60. He's a special defensive player.
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Why does his shot have to improve. Maybe more consistency
Because is it horrible and a detriment to his game.
I love Marcus, I love his hustle and his winning 50/50 balls. But it is really dishonest to pretend he does not have a problem with his shot. I hope the end of the season increase was for real but unless he improves his shot and his shot selection. He is replaceable. This is not an area of strength for him. I want him to succeed but he has to do it folks.
ts shots when needed more often than not. But he's got that junkyard dog, "IT" factor that you need on a championship team. We have enough offensive weapons now with adding Irving(a bit of a wash with IT lgone)Hayward, Morris, and Tatum, and Hopefully Brown improves.
What this amounts too, is your saying he is a hustle player and gritty and I like that about him. But when a guy does not command respect from the D, that means guys can slack off and let him shoot and double someone else. How is this good for the offense?
Try using more than hyperbole and cliches to defend your opinion.
He's also improved his ball handling quite a bit from season 1. And can run the point fairly well when IT was out last season.
Again, if no one respects your shot than you are a disadvantage at any position to play and it cuts your options. If you can't shoot teams are going to dare you to shoot, if this is not a strength for you it is not good for your team. This also affects your ability to drive because if they play off you then they can react to drives better. This also limits your ability to spread the floor. So it is much more complex than you present.
I want to see him do well. His shot needs to improve it will make him and the team more effective.
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No reason to extend Smart now. Unless you think his 3pt shooting is going to improve significantly, we'll be able to get him for 4yr/48M or less next offseason. Just don't see much of a market for him. Bad teams aren't looking for good defenders that can't shoot. Many of the good teams don't need him either and those that might would be over the cap so couldn't offer him that much.
There will be plenty teams who either have, or can make space.
If he shoots above 35% he will absolutely get more than 12 per. Evan Turner got 4/70.
Ya but the cap environment has changed since then, and that's universally seen as a horrible albatross of a deal in hindsight. Now a lot can change in a year, maybe his 3pt % goes way up and he boosts his value but right now he's not worth more than 12mil a year max, and probably less than that. Look at the Andre Roberson contract by comparison.
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Look at the Andre Roberson contract by comparison.
Smart is plainly superior to Roberson and his 3/30. What is your point, that Smart is in the 4/48-4/60 range?
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I see a lot of people stating that Smart is worth something between $12 to $13 million a year. I would pay him that if he comes out this year and significantly improves his shooting. If he doesn't then he is basically a defense only role player and I think that's worth around the MLE or about $8.5 million a year. He can't come out and still remain one of the worst shooters of all time and expect an 8 figure annual salary.
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No reason to extend Smart now. Unless you think his 3pt shooting is going to improve significantly, we'll be able to get him for 4yr/48M or less next offseason. Just don't see much of a market for him. Bad teams aren't looking for good defenders that can't shoot. Many of the good teams don't need him either and those that might would be over the cap so couldn't offer him that much.
There will be plenty teams who either have, or can make space.
If he shoots above 35% he will absolutely get more than 12 per. Evan Turner got 4/70.
I'm afraid the Turner contract is what his agent will focus on, even though it's an outlier. Portland surely regrets it now.
I'm curious how much better Smart will be seeing that he'll be on the floor with so many shooters. Forget who starts, in the 4th quarter Marcus and Irving will be the backcourt. With Hayward instead of Jae, and Morris instead of Jerebko/Amir/etc it will be an entirely different dynamic. Irving may actually slide to a more traditional SG role with Marcus distributing. All of this could lead to wide open shots for Smart, open lanes to drive, or rotating defenses that give up more buckets leading to more assists for Smart.
He could have one helluva year next season.
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I see a lot of people stating that Smart is worth something between $12 to $13 million a year. I would pay him that if he comes out this year and significantly improves his shooting. If he doesn't then he is basically a defense only role player and I think that's worth around the MLE or about $8.5 million a year. He can't come out and still remain one of the worst shooters of all time and expect an 8 figure annual salary.
You're right. For that kind of contract you have to be the 3rd or 4th best player on the team. And although you can make the case that he's right now, it's doubtful that with his current playing level he will still be that if Brown or Tatum make big leaps forward. It would be a shame if in a few years we have to let go of Brown or can't sign/trade for a big man to replace Horford, because we signed a role player for too much money.
I love Smart but he's not worth more on the market than 6-10 million. Any team that offers more is overpaying and should hope for a significant improvement in his shooting ability. It seems like people are still not realizing how stupid the contracts are that have been given out these last two summers.
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This is the year we figure out where Smart's place is on the roster. He either starts at SG or is 3rd guard/6th or 7th man. Much depends on how lineups fare with him vs Brown in various roles.
Either way, when you need 4 allstar players to win, he would be the 5th starter. So how much to you have slotted under your cap for each of the 5th-7th or 8th player?
We currently have 3, and always will we can expect, max players. We currently have, but might not always have, rotation players on rookie deals. It might be Marcus vs Brown for starting SG, and competing for a payday as well. Whichever one can't be replaced with an MLE guy can get paid.
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Marcus was the 6th pick of the 2014 draft. The 6th pick of the 2013 draft was Nerlens Noel, another defensive-minded, offensively-challenged player with some upside.
Supposedly Noel turned down a 4yr/$70M deal from the Mavs. Almost everyone thinks he was an idiot for turning that down (fans and media). I think Smart would grab that in a heartbeat. So let's say that's the high end of an offer range, although most would think Danny was overpaying in that case. The Mavs don't have the same roster makeup as the C's so they could afford to gamble on that deal.
There's also no way he'd get a max offer like #3 2013 pick Otto Porter got (4/104).
So Marcus will probably be offered something between 4/36 and 4/70 if I had to guess. At what point is that an overpay and at what point does he just laugh and toss the offer sheet away?
I think he declines immediately anything under 4/44. He'd rather gamble on himself. As he'd only "lose" a few million even with a sub-par year, probably netting a minimum of 4/40.
I also think Danny wouldn't risk luxury tax scenarios so he'd at a max offer 4/56. That's a max. $14M/yr average. Marcus probably snaps that up quickly. The odds of him having a gangbuster year might only lead to a 4/60. So take the $56M bird in hand.
But knowing Danny, he wouldn't offer his max at first, before Smart's final year of his rookie deal. So I'd guess he might meet right in the middle of a total contract value of $44M (min Smart would consider) and $56M (max Danny would actually pay next summer) and offer 4yrs/$50M.
Same contract Kelly O got (and he was drafted much lower than Smart). I'd offer it if I were Danny. And I'd take it if I were Smart (or smart).
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Marcus was the 6th pick of the 2014 draft. The 6th pick of the 2013 draft was Nerlens Noel, another defensive-minded, offensively-challenged player with some upside.
Supposedly Noel turned down a 4yr/$70M deal from the Mavs. Almost everyone thinks he was an idiot for turning that down (fans and media). I think Smart would grab that in a heartbeat. So let's say that's the high end of an offer range, although most would think Danny was overpaying in that case. The Mavs don't have the same roster makeup as the C's so they could afford to gamble on that deal.
There's also no way he'd get a max offer like #3 2013 pick Otto Porter got (4/104).
So Marcus will probably be offered something between 4/36 and 4/70 if I had to guess. At what point is that an overpay and at what point does he just laugh and toss the offer sheet away?
I think he declines immediately anything under 4/44. He'd rather gamble on himself. As he'd only "lose" a few million even with a sub-par year, probably netting a minimum of 4/40.
I also think Danny wouldn't risk luxury tax scenarios so he'd at a max offer 4/56. That's a max. $14M/yr average. Marcus probably snaps that up quickly. The odds of him having a gangbuster year might only lead to a 4/60. So take the $56M bird in hand.
But knowing Danny, he wouldn't offer his max at first, before Smart's final year of his rookie deal. So I'd guess he might meet right in the middle of a total contract value of $44M (min Smart would consider) and $56M (max Danny would actually pay next summer) and offer 4yrs/$50M.
Same contract Kelly O got (and he was drafted much lower than Smart). I'd offer it if I were Danny. And I'd take it if I were Smart (or smart).
You can't value Smart the same as Noel. Good defensive bigs that can run the floor and finish around the rim are much more highly valued than defensive specialist guards that are horribly inefficient offensively. Yes, Noel is offensively challenged but at least he is mediocre efficient.
I also think Noel is a better defensive player, though I know thats probably sacrilege to say on this board.
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People using Turner and KO as a gauge need to realize that offensive players get paid.
Guys like Andre Roberson, Matthew Dellavedova, and Patrick Beverley should be the comps here. The first two contracts are in the $10M/yr range while Beverley signed just before the cap spike at around $6M/yr (feel free to inflate that # a bit to compare to today's salaries).
Simply put, Smart is an awesome, tenacious, fan-favorite (deservedly so), but until he increases his efficiency on the offensive end - like a lot - he is not going to get paid like Turner or possibly even KO.
The reason this is going to extend into next season is because Danny is not going to offer more than $40M/4 years and Smart is not going to accept that.
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There's also a lot we don't know yet. Market conditions affect the size of contracts. As we saw this year the size of the salary cap can change pretty late in the game, that can have a big effect. It also matters what teams need. If there is a lack of guards in free agency, it will push prices up, if there's a glut they will go down. Waiting to see what happens makes sense in this case.
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People using Turner and KO as a gauge need to realize that offensive players get paid.
Guys like Andre Roberson, Matthew Dellavedova, and Patrick Beverley should be the comps here. The first two contracts in the $10M/yr range while Beverley signed just before the cap spike at around $6M/yr (feel free to use inflate that # a bit to compare to today's salaries).
Simply put, Smart is an awesome, tenacious, fan-favorite (deservedly so), but until he increases his efficiency on the offensive end - like a lot - he is not going to get paid like Turner or possibly even KO.
The reason this is going to extend into next season is because Danny is not going to offer more than $40M/4 years and Smart is not going to accept that.
Agreed. I've always thought Andre Roberson was the best gauge for Marcus. Andre turned down a 4 year, $48m extension and ended up signing for 3 years, $30m in restricted free agency. So I'd say split the difference, offer Marcus a 4 year, $44m extension and if he balks, let him go to RFA.
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Marcus was the 6th pick of the 2014 draft. The 6th pick of the 2013 draft was Nerlens Noel, another defensive-minded, offensively-challenged player with some upside.
Supposedly Noel turned down a 4yr/$70M deal from the Mavs. Almost everyone thinks he was an idiot for turning that down (fans and media). I think Smart would grab that in a heartbeat. So let's say that's the high end of an offer range, although most would think Danny was overpaying in that case. The Mavs don't have the same roster makeup as the C's so they could afford to gamble on that deal.
There's also no way he'd get a max offer like #3 2013 pick Otto Porter got (4/104).
So Marcus will probably be offered something between 4/36 and 4/70 if I had to guess. At what point is that an overpay and at what point does he just laugh and toss the offer sheet away?
I think he declines immediately anything under 4/44. He'd rather gamble on himself. As he'd only "lose" a few million even with a sub-par year, probably netting a minimum of 4/40.
I also think Danny wouldn't risk luxury tax scenarios so he'd at a max offer 4/56. That's a max. $14M/yr average. Marcus probably snaps that up quickly. The odds of him having a gangbuster year might only lead to a 4/60. So take the $56M bird in hand.
But knowing Danny, he wouldn't offer his max at first, before Smart's final year of his rookie deal. So I'd guess he might meet right in the middle of a total contract value of $44M (min Smart would consider) and $56M (max Danny would actually pay next summer) and offer 4yrs/$50M.
Same contract Kelly O got (and he was drafted much lower than Smart). I'd offer it if I were Danny. And I'd take it if I were Smart (or smart).
You can't value Smart the same as Noel. Good defensive bigs that can run the floor and finish around the rim are much more highly valued than defensive specialist guards that are horribly inefficient offensively. Yes, Noel is offensively challenged but at least he is mediocre efficient.
I also think Noel is a better defensive player, though I know thats probably sacrilege to say on this board.
He's not even a great finisher. Career 51% shooter. Amir Johnson and Kelly Olynyk both had better shooting % at the rim last year.
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People using Turner and KO as a gauge need to realize that offensive players get paid.
Guys like Andre Roberson, Matthew Dellavedova, and Patrick Beverley should be the comps here. The first two contracts in the $10M/yr range while Beverley signed just before the cap spike at around $6M/yr (feel free to use inflate that # a bit to compare to today's salaries).
Simply put, Smart is an awesome, tenacious, fan-favorite (deservedly so), but until he increases his efficiency on the offensive end - like a lot - he is not going to get paid like Turner or possibly even KO.
The reason this is going to extend into next season is because Danny is not going to offer more than $40M/4 years and Smart is not going to accept that.
Agreed. I've always thought Andre Roberson was the best gauge for Marcus. Andre turned down a 4 year, $48m extension and ended up signing for 3 years, $30m in restricted free agency. So I'd say split the difference, offer Marcus a 4 year, $44m extension and if he balks, let him go to RFA.
This.
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People using Turner and KO as a gauge need to realize that offensive players get paid.
Guys like Andre Roberson, Matthew Dellavedova, and Patrick Beverley should be the comps here. The first two contracts in the $10M/yr range while Beverley signed just before the cap spike at around $6M/yr (feel free to use inflate that # a bit to compare to today's salaries).
Simply put, Smart is an awesome, tenacious, fan-favorite (deservedly so), but until he increases his efficiency on the offensive end - like a lot - he is not going to get paid like Turner or possibly even KO.
The reason this is going to extend into next season is because Danny is not going to offer more than $40M/4 years and Smart is not going to accept that.
Those are valid points re: offensive-minded vs defensive-minded players.
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Marcus was the 6th pick of the 2014 draft. The 6th pick of the 2013 draft was Nerlens Noel, another defensive-minded, offensively-challenged player with some upside.
Supposedly Noel turned down a 4yr/$70M deal from the Mavs. Almost everyone thinks he was an idiot for turning that down (fans and media). I think Smart would grab that in a heartbeat. So let's say that's the high end of an offer range, although most would think Danny was overpaying in that case. The Mavs don't have the same roster makeup as the C's so they could afford to gamble on that deal.
There's also no way he'd get a max offer like #3 2013 pick Otto Porter got (4/104).
So Marcus will probably be offered something between 4/36 and 4/70 if I had to guess. At what point is that an overpay and at what point does he just laugh and toss the offer sheet away?
I think he declines immediately anything under 4/44. He'd rather gamble on himself. As he'd only "lose" a few million even with a sub-par year, probably netting a minimum of 4/40.
I also think Danny wouldn't risk luxury tax scenarios so he'd at a max offer 4/56. That's a max. $14M/yr average. Marcus probably snaps that up quickly. The odds of him having a gangbuster year might only lead to a 4/60. So take the $56M bird in hand.
But knowing Danny, he wouldn't offer his max at first, before Smart's final year of his rookie deal. So I'd guess he might meet right in the middle of a total contract value of $44M (min Smart would consider) and $56M (max Danny would actually pay next summer) and offer 4yrs/$50M.
Same contract Kelly O got (and he was drafted much lower than Smart). I'd offer it if I were Danny. And I'd take it if I were Smart (or smart).
You can't value Smart the same as Noel. Good defensive bigs that can run the floor and finish around the rim are much more highly valued than defensive specialist guards that are horribly inefficient offensively. Yes, Noel is offensively challenged but at least he is mediocre efficient.
I also think Noel is a better defensive player, though I know thats probably sacrilege to say on this board.
Just because one is a big man and the other is a guard doesn't mean you can't compare their values on the free market. It's all subjective of course but comparisons with other players drafted in the same range are at least somewhat valid, even more so when the two players are known more for their defense and uniquely specific offensive talents (rim-running and facilitation).
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Marcus was the 6th pick of the 2014 draft. The 6th pick of the 2013 draft was Nerlens Noel, another defensive-minded, offensively-challenged player with some upside.
Supposedly Noel turned down a 4yr/$70M deal from the Mavs. Almost everyone thinks he was an idiot for turning that down (fans and media). I think Smart would grab that in a heartbeat. So let's say that's the high end of an offer range, although most would think Danny was overpaying in that case. The Mavs don't have the same roster makeup as the C's so they could afford to gamble on that deal.
There's also no way he'd get a max offer like #3 2013 pick Otto Porter got (4/104).
So Marcus will probably be offered something between 4/36 and 4/70 if I had to guess. At what point is that an overpay and at what point does he just laugh and toss the offer sheet away?
I think he declines immediately anything under 4/44. He'd rather gamble on himself. As he'd only "lose" a few million even with a sub-par year, probably netting a minimum of 4/40.
I also think Danny wouldn't risk luxury tax scenarios so he'd at a max offer 4/56. That's a max. $14M/yr average. Marcus probably snaps that up quickly. The odds of him having a gangbuster year might only lead to a 4/60. So take the $56M bird in hand.
But knowing Danny, he wouldn't offer his max at first, before Smart's final year of his rookie deal. So I'd guess he might meet right in the middle of a total contract value of $44M (min Smart would consider) and $56M (max Danny would actually pay next summer) and offer 4yrs/$50M.
Same contract Kelly O got (and he was drafted much lower than Smart). I'd offer it if I were Danny. And I'd take it if I were Smart (or smart).
You can't value Smart the same as Noel. Good defensive bigs that can run the floor and finish around the rim are much more highly valued than defensive specialist guards that are horribly inefficient offensively. Yes, Noel is offensively challenged but at least he is mediocre efficient.
I also think Noel is a better defensive player, though I know thats probably sacrilege to say on this board.
He's not even a great finisher. Career 51% shooter. Amir Johnson and Kelly Olynyk both had better shooting % at the rim last year.
He has increased his FG% each year he has been in the league. Last year his FG% was 59.5% and his TS% was 62.2%. From inside 3 feet he finished at 71%. Its misleading not to mention his year by year improvement in shooting and finishing and just state his career average.
In comparison, Smart hasn't shown one bit of progression in his shooting stats and they are historically bad. Hence why I think its wrong to compare Nerlens and Smart as comparable salaries. Nerlens has progressed and gotten to be decent at least. Marcus...no progress. Nerlens, IMO is the better defender and an excellent rim protector. Nerlens is a better rebounder than Smart is a passer.
If Smart doesn't improve his shooting, I just don't see any team offering Smart what Dallas offered Noel. Not even close to that number. And it doesn't matter that they were both sixth picks in their respective drafts.
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Marcus was the 6th pick of the 2014 draft. The 6th pick of the 2013 draft was Nerlens Noel, another defensive-minded, offensively-challenged player with some upside.
Supposedly Noel turned down a 4yr/$70M deal from the Mavs. Almost everyone thinks he was an idiot for turning that down (fans and media). I think Smart would grab that in a heartbeat. So let's say that's the high end of an offer range, although most would think Danny was overpaying in that case. The Mavs don't have the same roster makeup as the C's so they could afford to gamble on that deal.
There's also no way he'd get a max offer like #3 2013 pick Otto Porter got (4/104).
So Marcus will probably be offered something between 4/36 and 4/70 if I had to guess. At what point is that an overpay and at what point does he just laugh and toss the offer sheet away?
I think he declines immediately anything under 4/44. He'd rather gamble on himself. As he'd only "lose" a few million even with a sub-par year, probably netting a minimum of 4/40.
I also think Danny wouldn't risk luxury tax scenarios so he'd at a max offer 4/56. That's a max. $14M/yr average. Marcus probably snaps that up quickly. The odds of him having a gangbuster year might only lead to a 4/60. So take the $56M bird in hand.
But knowing Danny, he wouldn't offer his max at first, before Smart's final year of his rookie deal. So I'd guess he might meet right in the middle of a total contract value of $44M (min Smart would consider) and $56M (max Danny would actually pay next summer) and offer 4yrs/$50M.
Same contract Kelly O got (and he was drafted much lower than Smart). I'd offer it if I were Danny. And I'd take it if I were Smart (or smart).
You can't value Smart the same as Noel. Good defensive bigs that can run the floor and finish around the rim are much more highly valued than defensive specialist guards that are horribly inefficient offensively. Yes, Noel is offensively challenged but at least he is mediocre efficient.
I also think Noel is a better defensive player, though I know thats probably sacrilege to say on this board.
He's not even a great finisher. Career 51% shooter. Amir Johnson and Kelly Olynyk both had better shooting % at the rim last year.
He has increased his FG% each year he has been in the league. Last year his FG% was 59.5% and his TS% was 62.2%. From inside 3 feet he finished at 71%. Its misleading not to mention his year by year improvement in shooting and finishing and just state his career average.
In comparison, Smart hasn't shown one bit of progression in his shooting stats and they are historically bad. Hence why I think its wrong to compare Nerlens and Smart as comparable salaries. Nerlens has progressed and gotten to be decent at least. Marcus...no progress. Nerlens, IMO is the better defender and an excellent rim protector. Nerlens is a better rebounder than Smart is a passer.
If Smart doesn't improve his shooting, I just don't see any team offering Smart what Dallas offered Noel. Not even close to that number. And it doesn't matter that they were both sixth picks in their respective drafts.
262 3pt shots contested
234 deflections
42.6% opponent shooting (Bradley was 46.5%)
517 contested shots (20% more than Bradley, adjusted for games)
5th in the league in charges drawn
So let's do some math. Marcus is worth about 10 extra possessions per game. Possessions were worth 1.1 points last year. Marcus made 1.2 3pointers on 4.2 attempts (28.3%). If he improves his shooting to a healthy 35% it would yield 0.81 extra points per game. Less than 1 point.
It literally does not matter if he clanks 3's for the rest of his career. That's why Stevens plays him 30mpg and almost every crunch time minute.
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Unless his shot improves this season he may go the way of the do-do, err I mean KO
Why does his shot have to improve. Maybe more consistency, But KO could shoot and he didn't get resigned. People don't value Smarts D. especially now AB is gone.
He also hits shots when needed more often than not. But he's got that junkyard dog, "IT" factor that you need on a championship team. We have enough offensive weapons now with adding Irving(a bit of a wash with IT lgone)Hayward, Morris, and Tatum, and Hopefully Brown improves.
He's also improved his ball handling quite a bit from season 1. And can run the point fairly well when IT was out last season.
His shot is a liability in today's NBA. If he could shoot he'd be an all star - but right now he's not - he's a very good rotation player who most likely will fit real well with this team because he'll be out there at crunch time with 2 and possibly 3 guys who can create their own shot.
He's worth Olynyk money and if you can get him for that I'd probably do it. That said to me he'd only be in demand next summer if there's another team with a chance to win the title that has the cap room to sign him. 4 yrs/$50 mill is probably still there for the C's if they do wait.
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262 3pt shots contested
234 deflections
42.6% opponent shooting (Bradley was 46.5%)
517 contested shots (20% more than Bradley, adjusted for games)
5th in the league in charges drawn
So let's do some math. Marcus is worth about 10 extra possessions per game. Possessions were worth 1.1 points last year. Marcus made 1.2 3pointers on 4.2 attempts (28.3%). If he improves his shooting to a healthy 35% it would yield 0.81 extra points per game. Less than 1 point.
It literally does not matter if he clanks 3's for the rest of his career. That's why Stevens plays him 30mpg and almost every crunch time minute.
Preach!!
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Marcus was the 6th pick of the 2014 draft. The 6th pick of the 2013 draft was Nerlens Noel, another defensive-minded, offensively-challenged player with some upside.
Supposedly Noel turned down a 4yr/$70M deal from the Mavs. Almost everyone thinks he was an idiot for turning that down (fans and media). I think Smart would grab that in a heartbeat. So let's say that's the high end of an offer range, although most would think Danny was overpaying in that case. The Mavs don't have the same roster makeup as the C's so they could afford to gamble on that deal.
There's also no way he'd get a max offer like #3 2013 pick Otto Porter got (4/104).
So Marcus will probably be offered something between 4/36 and 4/70 if I had to guess. At what point is that an overpay and at what point does he just laugh and toss the offer sheet away?
I think he declines immediately anything under 4/44. He'd rather gamble on himself. As he'd only "lose" a few million even with a sub-par year, probably netting a minimum of 4/40.
I also think Danny wouldn't risk luxury tax scenarios so he'd at a max offer 4/56. That's a max. $14M/yr average. Marcus probably snaps that up quickly. The odds of him having a gangbuster year might only lead to a 4/60. So take the $56M bird in hand.
But knowing Danny, he wouldn't offer his max at first, before Smart's final year of his rookie deal. So I'd guess he might meet right in the middle of a total contract value of $44M (min Smart would consider) and $56M (max Danny would actually pay next summer) and offer 4yrs/$50M.
Same contract Kelly O got (and he was drafted much lower than Smart). I'd offer it if I were Danny. And I'd take it if I were Smart (or smart).
You can't value Smart the same as Noel. Good defensive bigs that can run the floor and finish around the rim are much more highly valued than defensive specialist guards that are horribly inefficient offensively. Yes, Noel is offensively challenged but at least he is mediocre efficient.
I also think Noel is a better defensive player, though I know thats probably sacrilege to say on this board.
He's not even a great finisher. Career 51% shooter. Amir Johnson and Kelly Olynyk both had better shooting % at the rim last year.
He has increased his FG% each year he has been in the league. Last year his FG% was 59.5% and his TS% was 62.2%. From inside 3 feet he finished at 71%. Its misleading not to mention his year by year improvement in shooting and finishing and just state his career average.
In comparison, Smart hasn't shown one bit of progression in his shooting stats and they are historically bad. Hence why I think its wrong to compare Nerlens and Smart as comparable salaries. Nerlens has progressed and gotten to be decent at least. Marcus...no progress. Nerlens, IMO is the better defender and an excellent rim protector. Nerlens is a better rebounder than Smart is a passer.
If Smart doesn't improve his shooting, I just don't see any team offering Smart what Dallas offered Noel. Not even close to that number. And it doesn't matter that they were both sixth picks in their respective drafts.
262 3pt shots contested
234 deflections
42.6% opponent shooting (Bradley was 46.5%)
517 contested shots (20% more than Bradley, adjusted for games)
5th in the league in charges drawn
So let's do some math. Marcus is worth about 10 extra possessions per game. Possessions were worth 1.1 points last year. Marcus made 1.2 3pointers on 4.2 attempts (28.3%). If he improves his shooting to a healthy 35% it would yield 0.81 extra points per game. Less than 1 point.
It literally does not matter if he clanks 3's for the rest of his career. That's why Stevens plays him 30mpg and almost every crunch time minute.
Boom goes the dynamite. Also in this discussion we should consider how many minutes per game each plays. Smarts minutes also come on the defending #1 seed in the East vs Dallas' lottery team.
That's another way to contrast (not just compare) two defensive minded players drafted #6 one year apart.
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Marcus was the 6th pick of the 2014 draft. The 6th pick of the 2013 draft was Nerlens Noel, another defensive-minded, offensively-challenged player with some upside.
Supposedly Noel turned down a 4yr/$70M deal from the Mavs. Almost everyone thinks he was an idiot for turning that down (fans and media). I think Smart would grab that in a heartbeat. So let's say that's the high end of an offer range, although most would think Danny was overpaying in that case. The Mavs don't have the same roster makeup as the C's so they could afford to gamble on that deal.
There's also no way he'd get a max offer like #3 2013 pick Otto Porter got (4/104).
So Marcus will probably be offered something between 4/36 and 4/70 if I had to guess. At what point is that an overpay and at what point does he just laugh and toss the offer sheet away?
I think he declines immediately anything under 4/44. He'd rather gamble on himself. As he'd only "lose" a few million even with a sub-par year, probably netting a minimum of 4/40.
I also think Danny wouldn't risk luxury tax scenarios so he'd at a max offer 4/56. That's a max. $14M/yr average. Marcus probably snaps that up quickly. The odds of him having a gangbuster year might only lead to a 4/60. So take the $56M bird in hand.
But knowing Danny, he wouldn't offer his max at first, before Smart's final year of his rookie deal. So I'd guess he might meet right in the middle of a total contract value of $44M (min Smart would consider) and $56M (max Danny would actually pay next summer) and offer 4yrs/$50M.
Same contract Kelly O got (and he was drafted much lower than Smart). I'd offer it if I were Danny. And I'd take it if I were Smart (or smart).
You can't value Smart the same as Noel. Good defensive bigs that can run the floor and finish around the rim are much more highly valued than defensive specialist guards that are horribly inefficient offensively. Yes, Noel is offensively challenged but at least he is mediocre efficient.
I also think Noel is a better defensive player, though I know thats probably sacrilege to say on this board.
He's not even a great finisher. Career 51% shooter. Amir Johnson and Kelly Olynyk both had better shooting % at the rim last year.
He has increased his FG% each year he has been in the league. Last year his FG% was 59.5% and his TS% was 62.2%. From inside 3 feet he finished at 71%. Its misleading not to mention his year by year improvement in shooting and finishing and just state his career average.
In comparison, Smart hasn't shown one bit of progression in his shooting stats and they are historically bad. Hence why I think its wrong to compare Nerlens and Smart as comparable salaries. Nerlens has progressed and gotten to be decent at least. Marcus...no progress. Nerlens, IMO is the better defender and an excellent rim protector. Nerlens is a better rebounder than Smart is a passer.
If Smart doesn't improve his shooting, I just don't see any team offering Smart what Dallas offered Noel. Not even close to that number. And it doesn't matter that they were both sixth picks in their respective drafts.
262 3pt shots contested
234 deflections
42.6% opponent shooting (Bradley was 46.5%)
517 contested shots (20% more than Bradley, adjusted for games)
5th in the league in charges drawn
So let's do some math. Marcus is worth about 10 extra possessions per game. Possessions were worth 1.1 points last year. Marcus made 1.2 3pointers on 4.2 attempts (28.3%). If he improves his shooting to a healthy 35% it would yield 0.81 extra points per game. Less than 1 point.
It literally does not matter if he clanks 3's for the rest of his career. That's why Stevens plays him 30mpg and almost every crunch time minute.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Marcus+Smart&player_id1_select=Marcus+Smart&y1=2017&player_id1=smartma01&idx=players&player_id2_hint=Nerlens+Noel&player_id2_select=Nerlens+Noel&y2=2017&player_id2=noelne01&idx=players
Here is their comparisons from last year. I don't have deflection stats for Noel but I am guessing they are high.
Per 100 posessions and Per 36 Minutes Nerlens scores more and creates more turnovers. His Win Shares were higher than Smarts even though he played for bad teams and played less games. Noel's win shares per 48 monutes were 3 times higher than Smart's.
Noel simply was a much more impactful player than Smart. Simply checking their advanced stats, per36 stats and per 100 possesions stats prove that.
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Not debating those numbers but in terms of importance to their teams why did Noel play only 21mpg while Smart played 30?
If we're looking at who was more impactful for their team certainly playing time should be a consideration, which goes beyond advanced metrics.
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I have no idea...
But a guarantee you Danny know s exactly what he is gonna do .
So why worry.
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Not debating those numbers but in terms of importance to their teams why did Noel play only 21mpg while Smart played 30?
If we're looking at who was more impactful for their team certainly playing time should be a consideration, which goes beyond advanced metrics.
Well there is a variety of reasons why he played less MPG but when looking at impact I would look at winshares. Noel playing less minutes and less games had more total winshares than Smart.
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Do Celtics have right to match? If so just wait and see. Smart might finally make the leap or he might just remain a defense only player. We need to know if smart is only the next tony Allen in a pg body or if he can be a legit 2 way star.
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Do Celtics have right to match? If so just wait and see. Smart might finally make the leap or he might just remain a defense only player. We need to know if smart is only the next tony Allen in a pg body or if he can be a legit 2 way star.
Sure you can just wait and see. And then some stupid team offers him 4/70 and we just can't/won't match when we could have locked him up at 4/50 if we had just offered it now (theoretically). That's why you don't always just "wait and see." It's a risk to wait.
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262 3pt shots contested
234 deflections
42.6% opponent shooting (Bradley was 46.5%)
517 contested shots (20% more than Bradley, adjusted for games)
5th in the league in charges drawn
So let's do some math. Marcus is worth about 10 extra possessions per game. Possessions were worth 1.1 points last year. Marcus made 1.2 3pointers on 4.2 attempts (28.3%). If he improves his shooting to a healthy 35% it would yield 0.81 extra points per game. Less than 1 point.
It literally does not matter if he clanks 3's for the rest of his career. That's why Stevens plays him 30mpg and almost every crunch time minute.
Preach!!
Preach X 2!
He is the heart of the team.
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I think we should wait and let the market set the price. I started a post a few months ago wondering exactly how much IT can even get in the market next year. Many teams have used up their cap space the past 2 years, and there a lot of good free agents next year.
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Marcus was the 6th pick of the 2014 draft. The 6th pick of the 2013 draft was Nerlens Noel, another defensive-minded, offensively-challenged player with some upside.
Supposedly Noel turned down a 4yr/$70M deal from the Mavs. Almost everyone thinks he was an idiot for turning that down (fans and media). I think Smart would grab that in a heartbeat. So let's say that's the high end of an offer range, although most would think Danny was overpaying in that case. The Mavs don't have the same roster makeup as the C's so they could afford to gamble on that deal.
There's also no way he'd get a max offer like #3 2013 pick Otto Porter got (4/104).
So Marcus will probably be offered something between 4/36 and 4/70 if I had to guess. At what point is that an overpay and at what point does he just laugh and toss the offer sheet away?
I think he declines immediately anything under 4/44. He'd rather gamble on himself. As he'd only "lose" a few million even with a sub-par year, probably netting a minimum of 4/40.
I also think Danny wouldn't risk luxury tax scenarios so he'd at a max offer 4/56. That's a max. $14M/yr average. Marcus probably snaps that up quickly. The odds of him having a gangbuster year might only lead to a 4/60. So take the $56M bird in hand.
But knowing Danny, he wouldn't offer his max at first, before Smart's final year of his rookie deal. So I'd guess he might meet right in the middle of a total contract value of $44M (min Smart would consider) and $56M (max Danny would actually pay next summer) and offer 4yrs/$50M.
Same contract Kelly O got (and he was drafted much lower than Smart). I'd offer it if I were Danny. And I'd take it if I were Smart (or smart).
You can't value Smart the same as Noel. Good defensive bigs that can run the floor and finish around the rim are much more highly valued than defensive specialist guards that are horribly inefficient offensively. Yes, Noel is offensively challenged but at least he is mediocre efficient.
I also think Noel is a better defensive player, though I know thats probably sacrilege to say on this board.
He's not even a great finisher. Career 51% shooter. Amir Johnson and Kelly Olynyk both had better shooting % at the rim last year.
He has increased his FG% each year he has been in the league. Last year his FG% was 59.5% and his TS% was 62.2%. From inside 3 feet he finished at 71%. Its misleading not to mention his year by year improvement in shooting and finishing and just state his career average.
In comparison, Smart hasn't shown one bit of progression in his shooting stats and they are historically bad. Hence why I think its wrong to compare Nerlens and Smart as comparable salaries. Nerlens has progressed and gotten to be decent at least. Marcus...no progress. Nerlens, IMO is the better defender and an excellent rim protector. Nerlens is a better rebounder than Smart is a passer.
If Smart doesn't improve his shooting, I just don't see any team offering Smart what Dallas offered Noel. Not even close to that number. And it doesn't matter that they were both sixth picks in their respective drafts.
262 3pt shots contested
234 deflections
42.6% opponent shooting (Bradley was 46.5%)
517 contested shots (20% more than Bradley, adjusted for games)
5th in the league in charges drawn
So let's do some math. Marcus is worth about 10 extra possessions per game. Possessions were worth 1.1 points last year. Marcus made 1.2 3pointers on 4.2 attempts (28.3%). If he improves his shooting to a healthy 35% it would yield 0.81 extra points per game. Less than 1 point.
It literally does not matter if he clanks 3's for the rest of his career. That's why Stevens plays him 30mpg and almost every crunch time minute.
I love the sentiment and agree. Marcus makes winning plays.
I'm just wondering, how is Marcus worth about 10 extra possessions per game?
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we have enough shooting now... need some good defensive plays.. extend him
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Marcus was the 6th pick of the 2014 draft. The 6th pick of the 2013 draft was Nerlens Noel, another defensive-minded, offensively-challenged player with some upside.
Supposedly Noel turned down a 4yr/$70M deal from the Mavs. Almost everyone thinks he was an idiot for turning that down (fans and media). I think Smart would grab that in a heartbeat. So let's say that's the high end of an offer range, although most would think Danny was overpaying in that case. The Mavs don't have the same roster makeup as the C's so they could afford to gamble on that deal.
There's also no way he'd get a max offer like #3 2013 pick Otto Porter got (4/104).
So Marcus will probably be offered something between 4/36 and 4/70 if I had to guess. At what point is that an overpay and at what point does he just laugh and toss the offer sheet away?
I think he declines immediately anything under 4/44. He'd rather gamble on himself. As he'd only "lose" a few million even with a sub-par year, probably netting a minimum of 4/40.
I also think Danny wouldn't risk luxury tax scenarios so he'd at a max offer 4/56. That's a max. $14M/yr average. Marcus probably snaps that up quickly. The odds of him having a gangbuster year might only lead to a 4/60. So take the $56M bird in hand.
But knowing Danny, he wouldn't offer his max at first, before Smart's final year of his rookie deal. So I'd guess he might meet right in the middle of a total contract value of $44M (min Smart would consider) and $56M (max Danny would actually pay next summer) and offer 4yrs/$50M.
Same contract Kelly O got (and he was drafted much lower than Smart). I'd offer it if I were Danny. And I'd take it if I were Smart (or smart).
You can't value Smart the same as Noel. Good defensive bigs that can run the floor and finish around the rim are much more highly valued than defensive specialist guards that are horribly inefficient offensively. Yes, Noel is offensively challenged but at least he is mediocre efficient.
I also think Noel is a better defensive player, though I know thats probably sacrilege to say on this board.
He's not even a great finisher. Career 51% shooter. Amir Johnson and Kelly Olynyk both had better shooting % at the rim last year.
He has increased his FG% each year he has been in the league. Last year his FG% was 59.5% and his TS% was 62.2%. From inside 3 feet he finished at 71%. Its misleading not to mention his year by year improvement in shooting and finishing and just state his career average.
In comparison, Smart hasn't shown one bit of progression in his shooting stats and they are historically bad. Hence why I think its wrong to compare Nerlens and Smart as comparable salaries. Nerlens has progressed and gotten to be decent at least. Marcus...no progress. Nerlens, IMO is the better defender and an excellent rim protector. Nerlens is a better rebounder than Smart is a passer.
If Smart doesn't improve his shooting, I just don't see any team offering Smart what Dallas offered Noel. Not even close to that number. And it doesn't matter that they were both sixth picks in their respective drafts.
262 3pt shots contested
234 deflections
42.6% opponent shooting (Bradley was 46.5%)
517 contested shots (20% more than Bradley, adjusted for games)
5th in the league in charges drawn
So let's do some math. Marcus is worth about 10 extra possessions per game. Possessions were worth 1.1 points last year. Marcus made 1.2 3pointers on 4.2 attempts (28.3%). If he improves his shooting to a healthy 35% it would yield 0.81 extra points per game. Less than 1 point.
It literally does not matter if he clanks 3's for the rest of his career. That's why Stevens plays him 30mpg and almost every crunch time minute.
I love the sentiment and agree. Marcus makes winning plays.
I'm just wondering, how is Marcus worth about 10 extra possessions per game?
It's an approximation that I won't be able to prove, but per game...
2 steals
3 deflections
6.5 contested shots
1 loose ball recovered
.3 charges drawn
maybe 1-3 stops over a replacement level defender
boxes out better than anyone on the roster
0.4 blocks
4 rebounds (15th among PG's)
AND last but not least, all the savvy plays he makes that don't show up anywhere. Baiting people into fouls. Being the enforcer. Injecting energy into our defense like an adrenaline shot. Taking opponents out of their game. Diving for loose balls like Bird or Cowens, f the consequences. He severely dislocated his finger diving for a ball... IN SUMMER LEAGUE!
I've actually recorded games where I noted him gaining 15 extra possessions. 10 is probably the high side of average.
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Are these our only two options?
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So Marcus Smart. Longest tenured Celtic. That feels weird..
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Depends how much he demands. If he's happy to take $8M a year right now, then you extend him now and lock him in at that money. That way you have him at a price that, in today's environment, is appropriate for a 2nd unit guy and/or 6th man. so you can't really lose.
Problem is, it's unlikely he'd agree to that type of money given that Avery Bradley got $7M a year, Crowder got about $7M a year - and both of those deals happened when the Salary Cap was roughly half what it is now. Most likely, then, that Smart is going to demand at least $12M-$15M a year and that may be too much money to pay a backup PG who has major flaws and has shown no real development after 3-4 years in the league.
In this case you'd want to wait out until at least near the All-Star break and see if he shows and development up to that point (improvements in his jumper, improved quickness from superior fitness, etc) and if his game takes a significant step in the right direction, then do it.
If you get to that point and he's still made no improvements, still can't shoot, and still has all the same flaws in his game - then you might need to play hardball. Offer him maybe $10m - $12m max and if he doesn't accept that, then Boston can try to pull off a trade of Smart and picks.
Probably will also depend on how other young guys (Rozier, Brown, Tatum) progress by that point in the season as well - has Rozier stepped up and proven he's good enough to backKyrie up full time? That will likely play a huge role in determining whether Smart would stay or go, too...all the more reason to hold off for half a season or so and see how guys are progressing.
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https://www.theringer.com/nba/2017/9/12/16290580/rookie-scale-extension-candidates
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https://www.theringer.com/nba/2017/9/12/16290580/rookie-scale-extension-candidates
I think KOC is being too modest. Smart will get a large offer from a team to be their starting PG. Bank on it.
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Depends how much he demands. If he's happy to take $8M a year right now, then you extend him now and lock him in at that money. That way you have him at a price that, in today's environment, is appropriate for a 2nd unit guy and/or 6th man. so you can't really lose.
Problem is, it's unlikely he'd agree to that type of money given that Avery Bradley got $7M a year, Crowder got about $7M a year - and both of those deals happened when the Salary Cap was roughly half what it is now. Most likely, then, that Smart is going to demand at least $12M-$15M a year and that may be too much money to pay a backup PG who has major flaws and has shown no real development after 3-4 years in the league.
In this case you'd want to wait out until at least near the All-Star break and see if he shows and development up to that point (improvements in his jumper, improved quickness from superior fitness, etc) and if his game takes a significant step in the right direction, then do it.
If you get to that point and he's still made no improvements, still can't shoot, and still has all the same flaws in his game - then you might need to play hardball. Offer him maybe $10m - $12m max and if he doesn't accept that, then Boston can try to pull off a trade of Smart and picks.
Probably will also depend on how other young guys (Rozier, Brown, Tatum) progress by that point in the season as well - has Rozier stepped up and proven he's good enough to backKyrie up full time? That will likely play a huge role in determining whether Smart would stay or go, too...all the more reason to hold off for half a season or so and see how guys are progressing.
Ah, yes. You hit on the two problems I have with locking up Smart to serious money right now: I think Rozier can back up Irving for those 12-16 minutes, easy, and for only $2M/yr or so for 2 more seasons, and Jaylen Brown is able to play SG as a starter. So where does Smart fit, and for how much money, under those conditions? At the least, he could just as easily play 12 minutes as 30.
Then there's the opportunity cost. If there's a vet available for the minimum who could fill the 12 min backup SG role, and there probably is, how much do you pay Smart and when?
I give him the chance to at least have security with a MLE offer, which he declines, and we all move on. He'll be in every trade rumour out there all season, but that's how it goes.
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https://www.theringer.com/nba/2017/9/12/16290580/rookie-scale-extension-candidates
I think KOC is being too modest. Smart will get a large offer from a team to be their starting PG. Bank on it.
I agree. I've already voiced my opinion on this in this thread, but I'll say it again. I'm jumping to lock Smart up for 12m for 4 years.
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https://www.theringer.com/nba/2017/9/12/16290580/rookie-scale-extension-candidates
I think KOC is being too modest. Smart will get a large offer from a team to be their starting PG. Bank on it.
I agree. I've already voiced my opinion on this in this thread, but I'll say it again. I'm jumping to lock Smart up for 12m for 4 years.
When his replacements are on the roster locked into rookie deals, I don't get it. He's a good player and great defender, and I love watching him get after it. I just don't see what necessitates having that much money locked into a non-star who you could quite frankly get away without (with Rozier and Brown getting the SG and backup PG minutes) without changing the trajectory of the team. Basically, not sure he's a luxury we could afford.