CelticsStrong
Around the League => The Draft => Topic started by: smokeablount on August 25, 2017, 11:20:42 AM
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Hey guys,
So we all know that Bagley and Porter are the consensus prizes in this draft, but Tatum just showed us that Danny bucks convention when he sees fit.
With Danny not protecting the Nets pick, it makes me think that Bagley/Porter may not be the guys he's focusing on most since he just punted on probably his best chance to get one. With the LA pick we all know we can't draft #1, or lower than 5.
Who do you think he's currently favoring with that Lakers picks? I think if he lands at 2 he probably takes one of those 2 top guys, but I doubt he expects that to happen.
I think it's Bamba. He was in attendance watching him recently. Bamba is basically the longest guy ever, can play our really one position of need, is a freshman who can hit 3's and rebound. He played great against the top team in Australia comprised of actual men. And he looks like currently he should be available at #4 or maybe even #5 so keeping the LA pick could work out if it lands.
What do you all think?
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Do we have a lottery pick next year?
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Do we have a lottery pick next year?
If the LA pick lands #2-5 we will own it. So even best case scenario we'd miss out on the better of likely Bagley and Porter, but best case scenario we'd get the other one, and if the pick does land we'd be able to land one of the 5 guys above even if it's as low as it can be.
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I do not think the lakers will be a bottom 5 team... if Lopez injures himself maybe...
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I do not think the lakers will be a bottom 5 team... if Lopez injures himself maybe...
Yeah that's certainly up for debate. They do not have a bottom 5 roster, but being in the West and playing West teams 4x instead of 2x like East teams, they might actually end up with a worse record than teams like the Magic or the Nets. I believe LA has the 3rd hardest schedule.
So while they might not have a bottom 5 roster, they might have a bottom 5 record. And they won't make the playoffs, so either way they will have at least some chance to land the #2 or #3 pick like all lottery teams do. IMO Lopez's health (he's been healthy) and Lonzo's production (how good is he off the bat getting teammates involved, how bad is his D) are keys.
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It's a crap shoot, but the LAL have to play a lot more games against all those good Western teams than Chicago, Atlanta, and Brooklyn do.
But even if the LAL finished with the 5th worst record, we'd only have a 46.5% chance of getting the pick. If they finish 6th, that chance slips to only 15%. It's about 70% if they finish 4th, and it's 80% if they finsih with the 2nd or 3rd worst record.
It would be a bitter pill to swallow if the LAL finish with one of the worst records, but then we lost the lottery and the pick winds up 1st or 6th.
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I do not think the lakers will be a bottom 5 team... if Lopez injures himself maybe...
Yeah that's certainly up for debate. They do not have a bottom 5 roster, but being in the West and playing West teams 4x instead of 2x like East teams, they might actually end up with a worse record than teams like the Magic or the Nets. I believe LA has the 3rd hardest schedule.
So while they might not have a bottom 5 roster, they might have a bottom 5 record. And they won't make the playoffs, so either way they will have at least some chance to land the #2 or #3 pick like all lottery teams do. IMO Lopez's health (he's been healthy) and Lonzo's production (how good is he off the bat getting teammates involved, how bad is his D) are keys.
There was an analysis made that showed how in maximum competitve disparity between conferencies provides only about +/- 2 wins. That could be the case this year. So even though it is a disadvantage it is not as severe.
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I do not think the lakers will be a bottom 5 team... if Lopez injures himself maybe...
Yeah that's certainly up for debate. They do not have a bottom 5 roster, but being in the West and playing West teams 4x instead of 2x like East teams, they might actually end up with a worse record than teams like the Magic or the Nets. I believe LA has the 3rd hardest schedule.
So while they might not have a bottom 5 roster, they might have a bottom 5 record. And they won't make the playoffs, so either way they will have at least some chance to land the #2 or #3 pick like all lottery teams do. IMO Lopez's health (he's been healthy) and Lonzo's production (how good is he off the bat getting teammates involved, how bad is his D) are keys.
There was an analysis made that showed how in maximum competitve disparity between conferencies provides only about +/- 2 wins. That could be the case this year. So even though it is a disadvantage it is not as severe.
That's interesting, as a data nerd I'd need to see the study. I assume that's an average win difference because I would throw that analysis into the garbage if it claimed that it affected all teams by +/- 2 wins regardless of record.
In the West, where you can make a legit claim that the 10th best team might be more talented than the 4th-5th best team in the East, I have to think that the teams in the cellar are going to lose out on more than 2 wins with that dynamic in place.
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Assuming the Lakers pick conveys next year, I think the target will being Jaren Jackson Jr. I think PF who can play center in small lineups (Horford, Draymond) are much more valuable than pure Cs and Jackson has an intriguing combination of offensive and defensive skills.
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I daydream about the pick landing #2 and the Hawks mess up and take Michael Porter Jr #1, leaving Marvin Bagley for the Celtics.
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Getting Bamba would be great for our frontcourt, he has the potential to be a Mutombo type of center.
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Ayton or Doncic
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Mine is Bagley, but I'd bet Ainge has a much different view than we do. He'll probably prefer Doncic or somebody who isn't even on the poll.
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I'm thinking Doncic, just seems like the kinda guy DA would love.