CelticsStrong

Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: rocknrollforyoursoul on April 19, 2017, 01:25:28 PM

Title: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
Post by: rocknrollforyoursoul on April 19, 2017, 01:25:28 PM
The results of this series thus far have me wondering if it's even worth it for Danny to have a plan. After all, the best-laid plans of mice and men tend to crap out, and a lot of what we would call "success" in pro sports has quite a bit to do with being in the right place at the right time.

To wit:

The Spurs lose their best player, David Robinson, for an entire season, then beat the lottery odds to land the No. 1 pick and get Tim Duncan. I realize that a lot of other things had to go right, but that was really the key. Pop's a great coach, but he's not winning all those titles without Duncan.

Pau Gasol turning out to be way better than anyone thought he'd be was key to the Lakers' last two titles.

Miami's last two titles were only because the Superfriends decided to go there instead of Cleveland or Toronto.

And so on and so forth.

I'm not saying there shouldn't be any planning or direction, but it also seems, a lot of times, that there has to be some very fortunate occurrence that sets everything in motion. Again using the Spurs as an example, they have a great owner, great GM, great coach, and great scouts, and quite a few players want to be there now—but it's possible that none of that translates to titles and sustained success without Robinson getting severely injured and the pingpong balls falling San Antonio's way.

All of which is to say, Danny striking gold with KG and Ray was probably a once-in-a-lifetime situation that can never be replicated, yet he seems to be trying to replicate that, waiting, waiting, waiting for that star or two to become available.

That star might've been available in Cousins, but if so, Danny obviously didn't want to take that risk.

That's his choice, but I don't see any situation where a transcendent player like KG is going to become available anytime soon.

Even if available, Jimmy Butler and Paul George are not on that level. Neither is Kevin Love. LeBron isn't going to be available in his prime. Probably the same for Durant, and we already struck out with him anyway.

Plus, who wants to trade with Ainge now? As much as he struggles at drafting, he succeeds in trading, but everyone knows that now and doesn't want to deal with him. And not only do other GMs mistrust Danny, they know that his leverage lessens as various deadlines approach, because at some point he has to actually use those assets—trade exceptions expire, cap room does no good if it's not used, and he has way too many draft picks. So other teams just won't bite, preferring to watch Danny and his assets wither on the vine than take the risk of inadvertently helping him.

So I guess things are mostly riding on the draft? But what if Boston gets the third, or even fourth, pick instead of first or second? What if Ainge gets the first pick and drafts Sam Bowie instead of Michael Jordan, Darko Mlicic instead of Dwyane Wade?

The Thunder had great draft success but reached only one Finals (and lost). They had Durant, Westbrook, and Harden and still couldn't win it all; can we expect to have anywhere close to that drafting success?

The Bucks aren't known for sound management but they landed Giannis, and the current Bucks team has more raw talent (and more poise under pressure) than this Celtics team.

Many have speculated that Danny is keeping his options open, trying to compete as much as possible now while still retaining enough assets to make a big move should the right opportunity present itself.

But is that really his plan?

If so, does it even matter?
Title: Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
Post by: jade88 on April 19, 2017, 01:29:49 PM
I think he's been stuck between maybe full on rebuilding through the draft and wanting a quick turnaround. The quick turnaround was absolutely an option with Cousins, and maybe even Butler/George available, he's just not willing to forgo the youth rebuild to go that route. He's teetering on what to do and i'm sick of it.

By the time he figures out what to do, he'll have wasted our time supporting a good team he never wanted to take to the next level.
Title: Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
Post by: rocknrollforyoursoul on April 19, 2017, 01:36:46 PM
I think he's been stuck between maybe full on rebuilding through the draft and wanting a quick turnaround. The quick turnaround was absolutely an option with Cousins, and maybe even Butler/George available, he's just not willing to forgo the youth rebuild to go that route. He's teetering on what to do and i'm sick of it.

By the time he figures out what to do, he'll have wasted our time supporting a good team he never wanted to take to the next level.

What gets me is that it seems like Danny wants to sucker someone into giving up Superstar A for Role Players X and Y and so-so draft picks, but everyone's onto him now. No current GM wants to be seen as the next Billy King, the jester of Ainge's court.

And Ainge acts like our role players are stars and all the draft picks are gonna be stars, and seems to severely prefer the unknown to the known. I just don't get it.
Title: Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
Post by: Ilikesports17 on April 19, 2017, 01:39:12 PM
what is your point?

The Celtics have a terrific foundation for success.

In Basketball all you can do is put yourself in really good positions, maximize flexibility and hope you get lucky.

there is no surefire way to build a champion. Ainge has us in a terrific position to get lucky. If the right star becomes available, we can pursure him, in FA or trade. We also have enough draft capital to take a couple swings at guys with star potential.

We are in great position.
Title: Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
Post by: tankcity! on April 19, 2017, 01:42:00 PM
Yeah he has a plan haha. People need to relax on this board. Ainge is going to continue to attempt to add stars through trades and free agency, while also drafting stars...That's the plan. I'm starting to worry about his draft skills. He did like Winslow...
Title: Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
Post by: PhoSita on April 19, 2017, 01:57:24 PM
I think the most recent iteration of the plan was basically "Be competitive with Thomas, Bradley, Crowder, and Horford and jump on the first good opportunity to add a superstar."

The fall-back option for a while has been those Nets picks.  If Danny can't launch this team to contender status, those picks will allow the team to basically go for a youth movement with multiple high draft picks instead.


These playoffs are changing the equation a bit, I think.  Thomas, Bradley, Crowder, Horford no longer looks like a viable foundation upon which to build a contender.  Even if you add another star to this mix -- the most likely options would seem to be George, Hayward, or Griffin -- I'm not sure the resulting team would have a chance of even making the Finals.

We're learning that you simply can't expect to have good matchups in the playoffs when 4 of your 5 starters are significantly undersized for their primary position.

This group can't score without Isaiah, they can't protect the boards, and they're generally just not very good defensively.


Heading into this summer, I now believe Danny needs to look at changing up the core group of this team at the same time that he looks to add more talent.  If he can't do that, I would say that it's time to go broke for youth.

If the Celts get the #1 pick and Fultz is the guy, maybe that's the best option anyway.

Hand the reins to Fultz and see what we can do with Fultz, Smart, Brown, and Zizic.  Plenty more draft picks on the way after this year, too.
Title: Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
Post by: tankcity! on April 19, 2017, 02:02:01 PM
I think the most recent iteration of the plan was basically "Be competitive with Thomas, Bradley, Crowder, and Horford and jump on the first good opportunity to add a superstar."

The fall-back option for a while has been those Nets picks.  If Danny can't launch this team to contender status, those picks will allow the team to basically go for a youth movement with multiple high draft picks instead.


These playoffs are changing the equation a bit, I think.  Thomas, Bradley, Crowder, Horford no longer looks like a viable foundation upon which to build a contender.  Even if you add another star to this mix -- the most likely options would seem to be George, Hayward, or Griffin -- I'm not sure the resulting team would have a chance of even making the Finals.

We're learning that you simply can't expect to have good matchups in the playoffs when 4 of your 5 starters are significantly undersized for their primary position.

This group can't score without Isaiah, they can't protect the boards, and they're generally just not very good defensively.


Heading into this summer, I now believe Danny needs to look at changing up the core group of this team at the same time that he looks to add more talent.  If he can't do that, I would say that it's time to go broke for youth.

If the Celts get the #1 pick and Fultz is the guy, maybe that's the best option anyway.

Hand the reins to Fultz and see what we can do with Fultz, Smart, Brown, and Zizic.  Plenty more draft picks on the way after this year, too.

Yeah I pretty much agree with this. I do think this year opens up more inclination to trade Bradley or Crowder. Honestly IT thing is an issue as well. GS is able to hide Curry, so we would need similar defenders as them. I mean Thompson, Durant, Iggy, and Green is a very nice luxury to have.

The problem is I don't think there will be many trade partners out there this year.
Title: Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
Post by: Rosco917 on April 19, 2017, 02:02:22 PM
I'm beginning to question Danny's idea of what a championship team plays like, and looks like. So yes...I'm beginning to question his long range plans.

He's having trouble excepting that small ball will only take you so far, if it's not balanced with talented size also.
Title: Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
Post by: rocknrollforyoursoul on April 19, 2017, 02:03:42 PM
what is your point?

The Celtics have a terrific foundation for success.

In Basketball all you can do is put yourself in really good positions, maximize flexibility and hope you get lucky.

there is no surefire way to build a champion. Ainge has us in a terrific position to get lucky. If the right star becomes available, we can pursure him, in FA or trade. We also have enough draft capital to take a couple swings at guys with star potential.

We are in great position.

I think my point is clear: Danny might be doing a whole lot of scheming and planning for nothing.

The Spurs lucked into Duncan, the Lakers lucked into Gasol, the Heat lucked into the Superfriends; even the Cavs got a bit lucky with some draft picks that were higher than the odds predicted. And none of those teams at those times had great assets, other than maybe cap space. They didn't have the so-called "treasure trove" that Danny has.

It's like Danny is waiting for a perfect situation—á la KG and Ray—that might very well not exist. Or, alternatively, he's banking everything on getting THE MAN in this year's draft, which could very well not happen.

Plus, these guys are coming out of college so young that they're just getting good—if they get good at all—when their rookie deals are expiring, so the team is gonna have to pony up the big bucks at some point regardless. This isn't like baseball, where a team can groom lots of good young players and afford to hang onto them, where top prospects are often really good well before their rookie deals expire (think Trout, Betts, Harper).

I don't mean to open the Cousins can of worms, but his talent is what this team needs—as opposed to "stretch bigs" (translation: guys who can't block shots or rebound or get physical) and "combo guards" (translation: guys who are aren't great at either dribbling or passing or shooting). Great opportunities don't come along often, and I feel like Danny missed one there.

Like I said in one of the game threads, Danny better turn these two Brooklyn picks into two superstars, or all of this maneuvering and waiting and scheming will be for naught.
Title: Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
Post by: furball on April 19, 2017, 02:18:52 PM
I think the monkey wrench in Danny's plan is that this team keeps winning (in the reg season).  He is still building this team and has never even suggested that this is a great team, a finished team, or a contender.  He is still patiently building the team (like stashing the big we need in Europe this year) for the long haul but the winning keeps giving most fans high expectations. 

As far as should he be planning??  Well yeah a lot of teams have lucked out to build championship teams.  But a lot haven't.  Say oh, the 80's Celtics.  Or Golden State.  Besides, what else is he, or any team supposed to do??  Just sit around and hope for ping pong balls??  Hienke tried that and it got him fired. 
Title: Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
Post by: Hank Finkel on April 19, 2017, 02:33:37 PM
I'm beginning to question Danny's idea of what a championship team plays like, and looks like. So yes...I'm beginning to question his long range plans.

He's having trouble excepting that small ball will only take you so far, if it's not balanced with talented size also.
I have questioned his plan since the trade of Perk.  He doesn't value big men who rebound and are tough.  This is his downfall as a GM.  Basketball is played at the very highest level with great big men.  We have none.  DA needs to revamp his whole thought process.  Small basketball players can only do so much.
Title: Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
Post by: Moranis on April 19, 2017, 10:31:34 PM
I don't buy the premise of this thread at all. 

Sure San Antonio didn't plan on Robinson getting hurt, but once he was, they went into full on tank mode and ended up with the 3rd worst record (which historically has led to more #1 picks than any other position). 

Pau Gasol was an all star before he ever landed in Los Angeles.  All of the major stats (aside from rebounds) his career high was set in Memphis, not Los Angeles.  Pau Gasol was a great player before he went to L.A., period. 

Pat Riley had been planning for that summer for years.  He made all kinds of moves with the sole intention of entering that summer with the ability to offer 3 near max contracts so that he could lure two other top level free agents to play with Wade in Miami.  Now sure, he couldn't really know that James and Bosh would go there, but it was only possible because of the groundwork Riley had laid years prior. 

Sure it takes some luck to build a champion, but every championship team is built by some sort of plan.  Maybe it is a plan like Philly to downright suck for multiple seasons, maybe it is a plan to create cap space for multiple max players and swing for the fences (like Boston did last summer and Miami did in 2010), maybe it is to draft players only to trade them for veterans (like Ainge did in 2008), etc.  You don't build a championship team without a plan.
Title: Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
Post by: wdleehi on April 20, 2017, 02:49:41 PM
Yes. 


The part of the plan that is hard for fans is still being patient.  Sure, there are rumors and discussions about other teams stars and trades, but nothing happened.  No one else swept in and traded for those players either. 


Those teams want a kings ransom, and no team is offering it. 


He and the Celtics are clearly not worried about being a legitimate contender yet.  They are still looking to build at their cost. 
Title: Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
Post by: cltc5 on April 20, 2017, 04:27:58 PM
He has no clue.  He's been trying to recreate the summer of 08 and it ain't gonna happen.  It's time to build a team... a legit 5 position team not a bunch of Edited.  Profanity and masked profanity are against forum rules and may result in discipline.n assets we throw around every year and try to squeeze every announce of overachievement out of them.  This draft will come and go.  The summer will come and go and the playoffs will be right where we are now. 
Title: Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
Post by: mspring on April 20, 2017, 04:49:39 PM
I believe Ainge has a plan and it is a great plan. Sports fans/commentators are so fickle sometimes.  Early this year and for the past 4 years people have praised Ainge's rebuild and said the Celtics are doing something that is extremely rare, i.e. rebuilding while also fielding a competitive team.  Now we lose our first 2 playoff games and all of that is thrown out the window?  Seriously?  We still have great draft picks in this years draft and next years draft along with a young core, that hasn't changed.  Cowherd has been ripping Ainge for not making trades at the deadline, specifically Butler or Paul George, but if you have to gut the core of your team to make a deal for Butler, then you become no different than the Bulls.  If the Bulls would take some draft picks and young players and you could add Butler or George while keeping most of our core, then Ainge probably does it.  If the Bulls are asking for our 2 Brooklyn 1sts along with Crowder, Bradley and Smart then we lose a lot of our core and a lot of our future core for 1 player.  If you say the Bulls should make this trade, then they would end up with Crowder, Bradley, Smart, and the 2 Brooklyn 1sts.  If they should make this trade, then we shouldn't because we already have all of them.  Anyway, I believe Ainge has a plan and he would make a trade for a superstar if we could still keep the bulk of our core in tact.  Otherwise he is committed to building through the draft.  By the way we have a couple of examples of teams that were primarily built through the draft, i.e. Golden State.  They drafted Curry, Thompson, Draymond, Harrison Barnes; they signed a free agent that was a core player in Igudola, but before they even signed Durant much of their core was built through the draft and it took some time.  The Thunder built their team primarily through the draft up until they lost Durant to free agency.  Ultimately I believe we are still in a great position and am excited to see what the future holds!
Title: Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
Post by: Boris Badenov on April 20, 2017, 05:08:42 PM
 

I think my point is clear: Danny might be doing a whole lot of scheming and planning for nothing.

The Spurs lucked into Duncan, the Lakers lucked into Gasol, the Heat lucked into the Superfriends; even the Cavs got a bit lucky...

It's like Danny is waiting for a perfect situation—á la KG and Ray—that might very well not exist.

Does Danny have a plan? Yes.

Is it worth having a plan? Yes.

Is Danny "over-planning" and not gambling enough? I don't think so.

He's kept draft picks instead of trading them for established players. That's a risk.

He signed Horford hoping Durant would come too. That was a risk.

He held the 2017 BKN pick and will gamble that (a) we get a high draft slot, and may further gamble by keeping the pick and drafting an unproven rookie. Risk.

He hired Stevens, an unproven coach. Big risk.

He traded KG and Pierce for highly uncertain future draft picks. Big gamble.

So to cite the examples of Miami or San Antonio as being ones where there was a certain amount of planning but then a stroke of luck, and to therefore conclude that Danny by comparison isn't allowing luck to enter the picture....it just doesn't match the facts.

You need good planning, yes. And you have to gamble, yes. But Danny's done that, over and over. Maybe we forget he's been gambling because so many of those gambles have been winners.

And the idea that luck is more important than good planning is just clearly wrong. The teams that turned luck into rings complemented their luck with great planning, and the NBA graveyard is littered with teams who hit it big with a franchise player and squandered their chance.
Title: Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
Post by: droopdog7 on April 20, 2017, 05:15:12 PM
To answer the OP, plans are good.  But many of the great teams are also blessed with luck.  I don't believe the Celts have gotten that lucky break just yet.  Still have two more chances for convert those Nets picks into a star.  Hopefully it will happen.
Title: Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
Post by: rocknrollforyoursoul on April 20, 2017, 05:48:47 PM
I believe Ainge has a plan and it is a great plan. Sports fans/commentators are so fickle sometimes.  Early this year and for the past 4 years people have praised Ainge's rebuild and said the Celtics are doing something that is extremely rare, i.e. rebuilding while also fielding a competitive team.  Now we lose our first 2 playoff games and all of that is thrown out the window?  Seriously?  We still have great draft picks in this years draft and next years draft along with a young core, that hasn't changed.  Cowherd has been ripping Ainge for not making trades at the deadline, specifically Butler or Paul George, but if you have to gut the core of your team to make a deal for Butler, then you become no different than the Bulls.  If the Bulls would take some draft picks and young players and you could add Butler or George while keeping most of our core, then Ainge probably does it.  If the Bulls are asking for our 2 Brooklyn 1sts along with Crowder, Bradley and Smart then we lose a lot of our core and a lot of our future core for 1 player.  If you say the Bulls should make this trade, then they would end up with Crowder, Bradley, Smart, and the 2 Brooklyn 1sts.  If they should make this trade, then we shouldn't because we already have all of them.  Anyway, I believe Ainge has a plan and he would make a trade for a superstar if we could still keep the bulk of our core in tact.  Otherwise he is committed to building through the draft.  By the way we have a couple of examples of teams that were primarily built through the draft, i.e. Golden State.  They drafted Curry, Thompson, Draymond, Harrison Barnes; they signed a free agent that was a core player in Igudola, but before they even signed Durant much of their core was built through the draft and it took some time.  The Thunder built their team primarily through the draft up until they lost Durant to free agency.  Ultimately I believe we are still in a great position and am excited to see what the future holds!

Yeah, I thought about GS as I was writing the OP, but I concluded that they got pretty lucky—Steph was a No. 7 pick and Thompson a No. 11, and I doubt anyone foresaw them being this good. I'm not even sure GS thought they would be as good as they are. And Green was a second-rounder.

The Thunder are an example often brought up, but as I said in my OP, look at all the great talent OKC drafted and it got them only one Finals trip and zero titles.

I don't buy the premise of this thread at all. 

Sure San Antonio didn't plan on Robinson getting hurt, but once he was, they went into full on tank mode and ended up with the 3rd worst record (which historically has led to more #1 picks than any other position). 

Pau Gasol was an all star before he ever landed in Los Angeles.  All of the major stats (aside from rebounds) his career high was set in Memphis, not Los Angeles.  Pau Gasol was a great player before he went to L.A., period. 

Pat Riley had been planning for that summer for years.  He made all kinds of moves with the sole intention of entering that summer with the ability to offer 3 near max contracts so that he could lure two other top level free agents to play with Wade in Miami.  Now sure, he couldn't really know that James and Bosh would go there, but it was only possible because of the groundwork Riley had laid years prior. 

Sure it takes some luck to build a champion, but every championship team is built by some sort of plan.  Maybe it is a plan like Philly to downright suck for multiple seasons, maybe it is a plan to create cap space for multiple max players and swing for the fences (like Boston did last summer and Miami did in 2010), maybe it is to draft players only to trade them for veterans (like Ainge did in 2008), etc.  You don't build a championship team without a plan.

That's fine. I was feeling pretty emotional at the time I wrote the OP.

My point with the San Antonio example was that they got pretty dang lucky, landing the No. 1 pick despite only the third-best odds, and of course it was in the year Duncan was available and the Celtics had the best odds. Third-best odds may have gotten the most No. 1 picks over time, but that's lucky, any way you slice it.

As far as Pau Gasol, I messed up on that one—yes, he was already a good player when the Lakers got him; what I meant to say was that the Lakers got him for what was thought at the time to be peanuts. Marc Gasol turned out to be pretty dang good himself, but at the time, a lot of people thought the Lakers had pulled a big heist, as the Lakers got Pau in exchange for Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton, Aaron McKie, the draft rights to Marc Gasol, and first round picks in 2008 and 2010 (picks that I think were pretty low).

Riley, meanwhile, had been planning, but as you said, he had no guarantees. If those three had decided to go to CLE or TOR, his planning would've meant very little.

All of which is to say, yeah, there has to be some level of planning. But it also seems to me that a ton of planning could be done but ultimately without a huge payoff. That's certainly possible.
Title: Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
Post by: mctyson on April 20, 2017, 05:53:25 PM
Yes he has a plan, he is executing it, and it has been obvious for a few seasons:

1) Compile assets in the form of draft picks, young players, expiring deals, and veterans on reasonable contracts. 

Status: complete

2) Maintain financial flexibility and cap space so they can compete in the FA market for max-salary players.

Status: complete

3) Draft well, make shrewd trades, and let Brad Stevens demonstrate his player development skills to maximize the talent on the roster.

Status: in progress, with some clear signs of early success

4) When the opportunity presents itself, go ALL IN on a top-10 NBA talent (or young player on his way to that)

Status: to be determined.

I think everything is working according to plan as best it could, and if we get the #1 pick in this draft you will see it all come to fruition.
Title: Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
Post by: spikelovetheCelts on April 20, 2017, 05:56:45 PM
I think he's been stuck between maybe full on rebuilding through the draft and wanting a quick turnaround. The quick turnaround was absolutely an option with Cousins, and maybe even Butler/George available, he's just not willing to forgo the youth rebuild to go that route. He's teetering on what to do and i'm sick of it.

By the time he figures out what to do, he'll have wasted our time supporting a good team he never wanted to take to the next level.
I will never believe Cousins or George would resign in Boston. Danny did the right thing.
 Butler after these 2 wins and if they win the series is the new face of the Bulls. We will have money without Amir Zeller and JJ for someone.  The Draft is the way to go. I trust in DA.
Title: Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
Post by: Big333223 on April 20, 2017, 05:56:57 PM
Well, we have a terrific young prospect in Jaylen Brown, a top 4 pick in this draft and a nice array of future assets in picks and stashed youngsters overseas and on top of that the team won over 50 games this year.

Yeah, I think the plan is working.
Title: Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
Post by: mspring on April 20, 2017, 06:20:37 PM
There's no doubt that there is always some luck involved in all of this.  If you look at Jimmy Butler, he was the 30th pick, Draymond Green was a 2nd round pick.  No one had any idea they would turn out to be all-star players.  We still don't know how good players like Smart and Brown will turn out to be. 

Someone else pointed out a while back that if you look at Butler's stats his first 2 seasons no one knew he would break out and become as good as he has.  He first came in the league at 22 years old and put up 2.6 pts per game and didn't start putting up double figures until he was 24 years old.  Smart is just now 22 years old and averaged 10.6 points per game.  Who knows how high his ceiling will be.  Butler is 27 now, which is the prime of his career.

All of this to say, there is always luck involved and Ainge has also said that he sees multiple draft picks similar to lottery tickets, i.e. the more you have the more chance you have of landing an all-star no matter where that player was drafted.  Take Isaiah Thomas for example, the last pick in his draft. 

Title: Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
Post by: Ilikesports17 on April 20, 2017, 06:50:40 PM
does it really need to be explained that is is "worth having a plan"?

are we really at that point?
Title: Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
Post by: rocknrollforyoursoul on April 20, 2017, 07:35:59 PM
does it really need to be explained that is is "worth having a plan"?

are we really at that point?

Well, I said this above, but I'll reiterate:

Quote
I wrote the OP in the heat of the moment, in the immediate aftermath of the Game 2 loss.

So I'm admitting that I wasn't in the best head space at the time, and spoke more harshly than I should've. My apologies for that.

I agree that Danny has a plan. I agree that having some sort of plan is necessary and worth it. I also think that Danny's plan has worked pretty well up to this point. He's giving himself options, ready to strike when the iron is hot.

All of that said, I'm not convinced his plan will work out as well as we all hope. None of us knows, of course, not even Danny—that's where the "luck" part factors in, sometimes to a pretty high degree. But I think a series loss to the Bulls will make it more difficult to attract premier free agents; rival GMs are leery of trading with Danny (rightfully so); and Danny's draft record is not what I'd call outstanding.

I guess his plan is "great" in the sense that he's giving himself the maximum number of opportunities to hit paydirt (multiple draft picks, good cap space, etc.).

Title: Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
Post by: GreenWarrior on April 20, 2017, 08:21:45 PM
danny's plan was to flip picks for top talent and no one bit on a deal. wyc and danny have said this in the past.

but any team could've easily figured that out by just looking at all their picks, they showed their hand pretty much by acquiring so many picks. which put them in a substantial disadvantage when negotiating.

these draft picks would have been great to keep if there were a Durant, KG, Jordan available but there wasn't or doesn't appear there will be.

Ainge did a great job acquiring these picks and robbing the nets but it's essentially going to amount to us just getting some nice players but nothing like we'd hope for.
Title: Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
Post by: flybono on April 20, 2017, 09:34:29 PM
When Larry Brown Coached the Pistons to back to back Championship appearances with 1 title in 04 and 05 he did it with NO hall of fame players...

Playing "we need a star card" is just an excuse.. Ainge has zero b@lls in the trade market, zero. He is a pick and stash GM who got lucky with the KG trade.

Again, 3 HOF's those years and 1 Championship is and was a joke!
Title: Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
Post by: flybono on April 20, 2017, 09:36:23 PM
danny's plan was to flip picks for top talent and no one bit on a deal. wyc and danny have said this in the past.

but any team could've easily figured that out by just looking at all their picks, they showed their hand pretty much by acquiring so many picks. which put them in a substantial disadvantage when negotiating.

these draft picks would have been great to keep if there were a Durant, KG, Jordan available but there wasn't or doesn't appear there will be.

Ainge did a great job acquiring these picks and robbing the nets but it's essentially going to amount to us just getting some nice players but nothing like we'd hope for.


If it were the Spurs or Lakers with those Nets picks, you can bet they would have dealt those picks for Talent..Not pick the Smarts and Browns
Title: Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
Post by: rocknrollforyoursoul on April 20, 2017, 09:45:40 PM
danny's plan was to flip picks for top talent and no one bit on a deal. wyc and danny have said this in the past.

but any team could've easily figured that out by just looking at all their picks, they showed their hand pretty much by acquiring so many picks. which put them in a substantial disadvantage when negotiating.

these draft picks would have been great to keep if there were a Durant, KG, Jordan available but there wasn't or doesn't appear there will be.

Ainge did a great job acquiring these picks and robbing the nets but it's essentially going to amount to us just getting some nice players but nothing like we'd hope for.

I think there's some bad timing involved, which isn't Danny's fault.

Boston has major cap space for the first time in, like, ever, and there haven't been/doesn't project to be many great ones available—last summer we got Horford but missed Durant, this summer we could very well see Griffin and Hayward return to their current teams, George apparently wants to become a Laker, etc. Just doesn't seem like there's many great options for utilizing the cap space.

Not only that, but right when Boston finally gets cap space, every other team gets big cap space via the new TV deal, and suddenly our cap space doesn't really stand out in the crowed.

Title: Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
Post by: cousytoheinsohn on April 21, 2017, 02:33:45 AM

Plus, who wants to trade with Ainge now? As much as he struggles at drafting, he succeeds in trading, but everyone knows that now and doesn't want to deal with him. And not only do other GMs mistrust Danny, they know that his leverage lessens as various deadlines approach, because at some point he has to actually use those assets—trade exceptions expire, cap room does no good if it's not used, and he has way too many draft picks. So other teams just won't bite, preferring to watch Danny and his assets wither on the vine than take the risk of inadvertently helping him.


Great post, outstanding points.

I think this one is key. Danny is in a double bind of his own making and choosing and, one might add, because of some unsound choosing.

He learned from one of the best, of course, Red, but has taken things a little too far and to the point where he and the Celtics are really going to need the legendary leprechaun to sprinkle some magic dust all over the Garden, or whatever leprechauns do, in the process of delivering some green good luck and a lot of it in order to get to where everyone wants and expects them to be.

And, it's infinitely tougher in this era than it was in Red's.

So, are we feelin' lucky?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I530sPVQSc8
Title: Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
Post by: mr. dee on April 21, 2017, 05:55:00 AM
I don't think having many 2nd rounders is a bad thing. The more the picks, the better the odds of striking a diamond in a rough. 1st rounder is a different matters though. You can use it to its advantage since rookie scale contracts are much cheaper than some grizzly veteran, especially with bigs.
Title: Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
Post by: Darío SpanishFan on April 21, 2017, 07:02:30 AM
When Larry Brown Coached the Pistons to back to back Championship appearances with 1 title in 04 and 05 he did it with NO hall of fame players...

Playing "we need a star card" is just an excuse.. Ainge has zero b@lls in the trade market, zero. He is a pick and stash GM who got lucky with the KG trade.

Again, 3 HOF's those years and 1 Championship is and was a joke!

You should take into account all the data for making such assumptions: age when they were put together, injuries, another super team in LA, etc.
Title: Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
Post by: Celtics4ever on April 21, 2017, 07:03:11 AM
He has fell in love with his assets and some of them are midling.  He also wants to win every trade by a landslide.  I think he has a plan but when you take these things into account is it as steady plan as it once was?
Title: Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
Post by: green18! on April 21, 2017, 12:01:13 PM
Danny operates by one rule -- am I getting back more than I'm giving up? That's why the early years were filled with trades for people like Ricky Davis, that's why he traded Perk for Jeff Green (b/c Perk was expiring, and Green was the future), that's why he didn't make a deal at this past deadline. The good deals, like the Brooklyn one went by this logic, the bad deals, like the Perk one, were under this logic, and the non-deals, like the Butler and George ones at the deadline went by this logic. Drafting Rozier when all of your best players are wings is this logic. Not trading picks when he had a bevy of them and stashing guys overseas is also this logic. Danny is just trying to build value and never wants to give up any value without getting something back.

For that reason, I'm skeptical IT walks in 18, b/c that would be giving up a huge something for nothing. Same with Bradley -- he will either re-sign or get traded.

The one exception to that rule, thus far, has been Cousins, who Danny clearly doesn't think you can win with, b/c he could have won that trade in terms of player value, it seems.

In general, I think this has worked pretty well. It is also well-suited to our environment where the sign the stars strategy is not going to work, and where b/c of the Brooklyn picks, we don't have to tank.