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Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: CelticD on March 19, 2017, 10:57:34 PM

Title: The Celtics are 30-10 in Games Where Marcus Smart...
Post by: CelticD on March 19, 2017, 10:57:34 PM
...attempts 10 or less field goals. Conversely the C's are 18-16 when he attempts 10 or more.

I figured it was primarily due to the idea that if Smart wasn't looking for his shot, then it was because he was facilitating more, but in those 40 games where he attempted 10 or less field goals, he averaged 4.4 assists, which is his season average.

He's averaging less than 8 FGA in those games as well, so it's interesting to entertain the idea that Smart could contribute even more to the team if he just shot less.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pgl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=game&year_min=2017&year_max=2017&is_playoffs=N&age_min=0&age_max=99&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&c1stat=fga&c1comp=lt&c1val=10&order_by=pts&player_id=smartma01

Edit: I can't get the hyperlink to work. Sorry for pasting this long link.
Title: Re: The Celtics are 30-10 in Games Where Marcus Smart...
Post by: Ilikesports17 on March 19, 2017, 11:01:37 PM
A lot of this is because when our best players dont play Marcus has to shoot more.
Title: Re: The Celtics are 30-10 in Games Where Marcus Smart...
Post by: KG Living Legend on March 19, 2017, 11:23:51 PM
A lot of this is because when our best players dont play Marcus has to shoot more.



 It's also a good example. 40 games that's significant. It tells me that he should be careful with his shots.
 Take those post up shots and be selective with the three's.
Title: Re: The Celtics are 30-10 in Games Where Marcus Smart...
Post by: KG Living Legend on March 19, 2017, 11:24:24 PM
A lot of this is because when our best players dont play Marcus has to shoot more.



 It's also a good example. 40 games that's significant. It tells me that he should be careful with his shots.
 Take those post up shots and be selective with the three's.
Title: Re: The Celtics are 30-10 in Games Where Marcus Smart...
Post by: CelticD on March 19, 2017, 11:49:09 PM
A lot of this is because when our best players dont play Marcus has to shoot more.

Yep that's a good point. Although out of those 40 games, 19 of those were played without one of AH, AB, or IT. I didn't get a chance to look at the W-L for those 19 games, but to your point I imagine most of those 10 losses will be attributed to games where one of those starters are missing.

Still, Smart's shooting is so poor, the defense would've done it's job if a Celtics possession ends with a Marcus Smart FGA.
Title: Re: The Celtics are 30-10 in Games Where Marcus Smart...
Post by: playdream on March 19, 2017, 11:50:12 PM
If he is afraid to take shots he is forever a role player
I want him to keep shooting while learning how to make them
Title: Re: The Celtics are 30-10 in Games Where Marcus Smart...
Post by: feckless on March 20, 2017, 12:37:18 AM
If he is afraid to take shots he is forever a role player
I want him to keep shooting while learning how to make them

Marcus's shot selection is frequently bad to terrible--you do not learn how to make stupid shots -- you learn how to find good ones and move the ball when you don't have a shot.

These numbers make it pretty obvious that Marcus is not who we want shooting a lot, at this stage of his career.

And yes it seems obvious that until Marcus can discern a good shot from a bad one he will contribute more when he shoots less.
Title: Re: The Celtics are 30-10 in Games Where Marcus Smart...
Post by: rocknrollforyoursoul on March 20, 2017, 12:41:15 AM
One drawback of the Brad Stevens offense is that whoever's open is supposed to shoot, but that only works consistently if everyone's a good shooter.
Title: Re: The Celtics are 30-10 in Games Where Marcus Smart...
Post by: feckless on March 20, 2017, 12:45:02 AM
One drawback of the Brad Stevens offense is that whoever's open is supposed to shoot, but that only works consistently if everyone's a good shooter.

I do not believe Brad's offense calls for Marcus to take half the shots he took tonight or most nights.
Title: Re: The Celtics are 30-10 in Games Where Marcus Smart...
Post by: Ilikesports17 on March 20, 2017, 12:54:22 AM
One drawback of the Brad Stevens offense is that whoever's open is supposed to shoot, but that only works consistently if everyone's a good shooter.

I do not believe Brad's offense calls for Marcus to take half the shots he took tonight or most nights.
Turner existed just fine on 1 3pa per game.
Title: Re: The Celtics are 30-10 in Games Where Marcus Smart...
Post by: rocknrollforyoursoul on March 20, 2017, 12:58:54 AM
One drawback of the Brad Stevens offense is that whoever's open is supposed to shoot, but that only works consistently if everyone's a good shooter.

I do not believe Brad's offense calls for Marcus to take half the shots he took tonight or most nights.

I didn't see today's game, so I can't speak specifically to his performance today, but it seems like (in theory, at least) any of Brad's players could take as many or as few shots as they'd like, and he'd be fine with it. As far as I know, he never discouraged Sully despite bad shooting, and he's never discouraged Smart. But I'm with you in that I don't think Smart should be shooting nearly as much as he does.
Title: Re: The Celtics are 30-10 in Games Where Marcus Smart...
Post by: feckless on March 20, 2017, 01:13:14 AM
One drawback of the Brad Stevens offense is that whoever's open is supposed to shoot, but that only works consistently if everyone's a good shooter.

I do not believe Brad's offense calls for Marcus to take half the shots he took tonight or most nights.

I didn't see today's game, so I can't speak specifically to his performance today, but it seems like (in theory, at least) any of Brad's players could take as many or as few shots as they'd like, and he'd be fine with it. As far as I know, he never discouraged Sully despite bad shooting, and he's never discouraged Smart. But I'm with you in that I don't think Smart should be shooting nearly as much as he does.

In general I agree Brad is very tolerant but tonight he clearly yanked Kelly immediately after an atrocious shot.   

What bothers me most about Marcus is this year he seems to be making a decent percentage when he takes good shots but he really does not get what is a good shot and what is not --or his desire to be the hero blocks his ability to figure out shot selection.  I still have hope he will continue to grow into making better choices.  I do believe he is much better than last year.
Title: Re: The Celtics are 30-10 in Games Where Marcus Smart...
Post by: droopdog7 on March 20, 2017, 06:35:38 PM
It's not about decision-making, mostly.  It's that there are a smaller number of "good" shots in Marcus' repertoire versus good offensive players.  And NBA defenses are likely squeezing Marcus into taking more shots than he wants to (like the way they used to do Rondo).

That is why it is important a lead guard to be a good offensive player even if he doesn't take a lot of shots.  In the long run, NBA defenses will force you to your weaknesses.  For Marcus, that will mean taking away many of his passing options. 
Title: Re: The Celtics are 30-10 in Games Where Marcus Smart...
Post by: mctyson on March 20, 2017, 06:48:49 PM
...attempts 10 or less field goals. Conversely the C's are 18-16 when he attempts 10 or more.

I could break down the Celtics record on probably 100 different data points with cutoffs like this and get this same results.

This is a meaningless conclusion.
Title: Re: The Celtics are 30-10 in Games Where Marcus Smart...
Post by: Ilikesports17 on March 20, 2017, 06:56:57 PM
...attempts 10 or less field goals. Conversely the C's are 18-16 when he attempts 10 or more.

I could break down the Celtics record on probably 100 different data points with cutoffs like this and get this same results.

This is a meaningless conclusion.
The Celtics have a better record when Avery Bradley doesnt play.

pretty big sample size on that one too.

Should we bench Avery Bradley?

absolutely not.
Title: Re: The Celtics are 30-10 in Games Where Marcus Smart...
Post by: RockinRyA on March 21, 2017, 12:37:49 AM
...attempts 10 or less field goals. Conversely the C's are 18-16 when he attempts 10 or more.

I could break down the Celtics record on probably 100 different data points with cutoffs like this and get this same results.

This is a meaningless conclusion.
The Celtics have a better record when Avery Bradley doesnt play.

pretty big sample size on that one too.

Should we bench Avery Bradley?

absolutely not.

Yeah, these stats are meaningless with deeper analysis into each game.
Title: Re: The Celtics are 30-10 in Games Where Marcus Smart...
Post by: hodgy03038 on March 21, 2017, 06:48:44 AM
...attempts 10 or less field goals. Conversely the C's are 18-16 when he attempts 10 or more.

I could break down the Celtics record on probably 100 different data points with cutoffs like this and get this same results.

This is a meaningless conclusion.
The Celtics have a better record when Avery Bradley doesnt play.

pretty big sample size on that one too.

Should we bench Avery Bradley?

absolutely not.

Yeah, these stats are meaningless with deeper analysis into each game.

Plus when he takes that many shots it may directly correlate when we are missing other key players like IT or Bradley which means we aren't as potent of a team and it may be because our usual offensive weapons are missing and may not directly correlate with his shot numbers.
Title: Re: The Celtics are 30-10 in Games Where Marcus Smart...
Post by: mmmmm on March 21, 2017, 09:30:17 AM
I think the more relevant stat is:

The Celtics are 22-7 in games in which all 5 of IT+AB+JC+AH+AJ have started.

When our starting 5 are healthy, that puts MS in his proper role of first bench PG, typically with at least 1 or 2 shooters from the starting lineup and guys who can shoot like Kelly, Jonas & Jaylen around him.  And facing bench units.
Title: Re: The Celtics are 30-10 in Games Where Marcus Smart...
Post by: manl_lui on March 21, 2017, 09:33:31 AM
I think the more relevant stat is:

The Celtics are 22-7 in games in which all 5 of IT+AB+JC+AH+AJ have started.

When our starting 5 are healthy, that puts MS in his proper role of first bench PG, typically with at least 1 or 2 shooters from the starting lineup and guys who can shoot like Kelly, Jonas & Jaylen around him.  And facing bench units.

I am thinking of this as well. You have to consider what factors into Smart taking 10+ shots a game. I love Smart and certainly a little bit bias but you have to think when he is shooting that high, the chances one of AB or IT is out that game or for a long period of time. Though I still like the idea of him being a "power guard" lol. I do see his 3 improving, not by much but somewhat noticeable, I am also seeing him drive more than last year and doing more floaters, but loving how Stevens is using him for post more. But I absolutely agree, with our starting 5 healthy and Smart off the bench, it does lower his shot and explains the extra shots he's taken when people are out with an injury. Surely I am wishing and hoping he makes a big offensive leap next year. I think a 20/5/5 Smart is definitely an all-star, if you consider his defense intensity as well. But I am content as is, as he is a major part of our team, and if it isn't a package deal for a superstar, I wouldn't even consider trading him
Title: Re: The Celtics are 30-10 in Games Where Marcus Smart...
Post by: spikelovetheCelts on March 21, 2017, 10:09:20 AM
AB is the best starter. And should be. He was awesome against the Wizards and has his feet back on the ground. Smart will probably always be a 6 man for Celtics if we get a top 2 pick he will be stuck there. Fultz is way more talented.
Title: Re: The Celtics are 30-10 in Games Where Marcus Smart...
Post by: mmmmm on March 21, 2017, 11:06:40 PM
I think the more relevant stat is:

The Celtics are 22-7 in games in which all 5 of IT+AB+JC+AH+AJ have started.

When our starting 5 are healthy, that puts MS in his proper role of first bench PG, typically with at least 1 or 2 shooters from the starting lineup and guys who can shoot like Kelly, Jonas & Jaylen around him.  And facing bench units.

I am thinking of this as well. You have to consider what factors into Smart taking 10+ shots a game. I love Smart and certainly a little bit bias but you have to think when he is shooting that high, the chances one of AB or IT is out that game or for a long period of time. Though I still like the idea of him being a "power guard" lol. I do see his 3 improving, not by much but somewhat noticeable, I am also seeing him drive more than last year and doing more floaters, but loving how Stevens is using him for post more. But I absolutely agree, with our starting 5 healthy and Smart off the bench, it does lower his shot and explains the extra shots he's taken when people are out with an injury. Surely I am wishing and hoping he makes a big offensive leap next year. I think a 20/5/5 Smart is definitely an all-star, if you consider his defense intensity as well. But I am content as is, as he is a major part of our team, and if it isn't a package deal for a superstar, I wouldn't even consider trading him

His 3PT shot is improving.  Not yet by results.  But it is by form.  His form as of last summer has been changed from the horrid clam-shell that he used to exhibit.   That bad form was never, ever going to become a consistent, reliable 3PT shot.  As of last summer, he has a much more upright stance, keeping his spine vertical and using his legs to get the power into the shot.   It will take a year or two before that feels 'natural' to him, but this is a much, much better shooting form than the crap he was allowed to use before.  His coaches at Oklahoma should be ashamed for not fixing this.  Improved results will also take a couple of years to show up.  But they should, eventually.   This form should result in a much more consistent shot since his upper body will no longer be moving haphazardly back and forth like it was before.

I don't think Smart will ever become a great 3PT shooter.  He's not going to be posting a 3PT% near 40% any time soon.  But he should be able to become at least a reliably efficient one.  He should settle somewhere in the 33-36% range.  And that should be just fine.