CelticsStrong
Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: Phantom255x on March 16, 2017, 12:42:38 PM
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So as we all know, IT, MS and AB hit Free Agency in the summer of 2018, with Smart being a RFA.
I've made it known, especially during the stretch where the C's were winning a lot of games when AB was injured, that I would keep Smart (makes winning plays) and IT (legit star scorer), while Bradley is the "odd man out" maybe in a trade for another great player (front court help?).
But he's come back and been exceptional. Averaging around 19-20 a game and 6-7 rebounds a game, and his defense on the likes of Kyrie Irving and Steph Curry/Klay Thompson has been phenomenal.
I think the C's will go past the luxury tax to field a contender, but the question is how far into it they will go. Highly doubt they keep all three, so it's a conundrum.
Smart will probably be cheaper (definitely not a max-candidate). Like him or not, even with some defensive deficiencies, IT is a legit scorer and we don't have another one on the team. We saw how bad this team was in the stretch when IT was injured (they were something like 1-4 or 1-5 with the only win coming against a trashy Magic team). Without IT our offense takes a colossal hit especially against above .500 teams.
What do you guys think?
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This is why trying to build longterm through the draft while being competitive longterm may not be sustainable. If we add pieces this offseason like Hayward and another impact player (Wyc says we're 2 stars away), then the decision to pony up and retain the IT/AB/Smart trio is a no-brainer. But if next season we're still only regular season champs who can't make any real noise in the playoffs, it doesn't make sense to spend that money.
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I wouldn't say he is the odd man out. AB is improving every year, he is probably a starter caliber player for most teams in the nba, he is playing near all star level and is a two-way shooting guard.
Smart is not really a SG we saw that, he is PG. And everyone likes Smart, he is shooting poorly but everyone likes him because he does the little things and helps the team get wins. Because at the end it's about wins not stats.
IT is superstar yes. But he is the guy who will ask for 150/5 contract. As much as i like him, in my head he is the odd man out. Because DA will not trade the picks. He will continue to build the team, and Horford and IT are just here for the transition period. I believe IT will be gone in 2018 and Horford expiring contract in 2019 will be traded. The future will be Fultz, Brown, Smart, 18 Nets pick.... I don't believe DA will try to win now because not IT and not Horford are good enough to be best players on a championship team.
If DA choose to try to win now than IT stays and probably Smart or Bradley will go.
I voted Bradley and Smart because i think IT won't get 150/5 deal by DA and the team won't go that direction, also i assume that Smart and Bradley will get resonable contracts. Smart around 12-14 mil and Bradley 17-18 mil.
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Are we assuming no major trades or free agent signings? If that's the case, then I say we keep all three. They all offer something different (and important!) to the team and Danny isn't one to let good players walk for nothing.
If we draft Fultz/Ball and/or sign Hayward, then things could change. I would have to see what offers are on the table for all three players. Also, I think we all assume that IT will be paid more than Bradley who will be paid more than Smart - is this absolutely the case?
There are a lot of variables here in regards to the draft and trades, but I think this roster could very possibly remain somewhat stable.
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For in the know, AB, was having a career year prior to the injury.
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AB is improving every year, he is probably a starter caliber player for most teams in the nba, he is playing near all star level and is a two-way shooting guard.
What we have here is a 6'3 first team all-defense guard that's averaging 17ppg and 6rpg(!) in just 33 mpg while shooting 42% from three. Boston Celtics fans think he's "probably starting caliber". ::) ::) ::)
File together with "bring Isaiah Thomas off the bench".
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AB is improving every year, he is probably a starter caliber player for most teams in the nba, he is playing near all star level and is a two-way shooting guard.
What we have here is a 6'3 first team all-defense guard that's averaging 17ppg and 6rpg(!) in just 33 mpg while shooting 42% from three. Boston Celtics fans think he's "probably starting caliber". ::) ::) ::)
File together with "bring Isaiah Thomas off the bench".
I was trying to give high praise to AB. Maybe my english is not perfect because it's not my natural language, but i was trying to say that he is great, also my favourite player on the roster now. Most people think that he is the odd men out but i actually was trying to say the opposite, that he SHOULD be signed and apreciated
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By 2018 I think the decision will already be made.
If we draft Fultz it's more likely Bradley is dealt. If we draft a wing I think Bradley makes more sense.
If we sign Hayward in July I think we will deal AB for a big or deal him to clear space so that we can sign Hayward without giving up Olynyk.
If we can't sign a max guy in July then I think you see the Celtics work to extend Bradley, IT and Smart.
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To clarify, when I say in the post that "Bradley is odd man out", I don't mean the C's just let him walk away, I mean they possibly trade him for some front court help.
We may not be able to keep Olynyk after this season either.
I'm assuming we sign Hayward or a max/near Max FA, AND draft Fultz/Jackson.
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The thing that concerns me is that the C's are 5 points better with Smart on the floor compared to Bradley. Bradley's net +/- is -2, and Smart's is +3.
If it weren't for that, I'd have no hesitation in saying we should pick AB over Smart, for all the reasons people list above.
I suppose there's hope that we might keep both, if Bradley's market doesn't pan out and we strike out in FA. We could re-sign him.
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To clarify, when I say in the post that "Bradley is odd man out", I don't mean the C's just let him walk away, I mean they possibly trade him for some front court help.
We may not be able to keep Olynyk after this season either.
I'm assuming we sign Hayward or a max/near Max FA, AND draft Fultz/Jackson.
I hope the Celtics don't keep Olynyk.
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To clarify, when I say in the post that "Bradley is odd man out", I don't mean the C's just let him walk away, I mean they possibly trade him for some front court help.
We may not be able to keep Olynyk after this season either.
I'm assuming we sign Hayward or a max/near Max FA, AND draft Fultz/Jackson.
I hope the Celtics don't keep Olynyk.
He's inconsistent a lot. Awful against bad teams (ex. Suns game), but ELITE against elite teams (ex. Cavs and Warriors games).
Thing is, the C's with a max signing stand to lose all of Olynyk/Mickey/Jerebko/Amir/Zeller.
Yeah, Zizic is coming, but no guarantee Yabu is playing for the Celtics next season.
You have Horford, Zizic, then who?
Maybe they keep Amir using the MLE (~8.5M)
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To clarify, when I say in the post that "Bradley is odd man out", I don't mean the C's just let him walk away, I mean they possibly trade him for some front court help.
We may not be able to keep Olynyk after this season either.
I'm assuming we sign Hayward or a max/near Max FA, AND draft Fultz/Jackson.
I hope the Celtics don't keep Olynyk.
He's inconsistent a lot. Awful against bad teams (ex. Suns game), but ELITE against elite teams (ex. Cavs and Warriors games).
Thing is, the C's with a max signing stand to lose all of Olynyk/Mickey/Jerebko/Amir/Zeller.
Yeah, Zizic is coming, but no guarantee Yabu is playing for the Celtics next season.
You have Horford, Zizic, then who?
Maybe they keep Amir using the MLE (~8.5M)
Yeah the C's are going to have limited avenues to add bigs in the offseason. Olynyk is almost assuredly better than the player that would probably replace him at the cost of his cap hold/MLE or vet min contract.
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To clarify, when I say in the post that "Bradley is odd man out", I don't mean the C's just let him walk away, I mean they possibly trade him for some front court help.
We may not be able to keep Olynyk after this season either.
I'm assuming we sign Hayward or a max/near Max FA, AND draft Fultz/Jackson.
I hope the Celtics don't keep Olynyk.
He's inconsistent a lot. Awful against bad teams (ex. Suns game), but ELITE against elite teams (ex. Cavs and Warriors games).
Thing is, the C's with a max signing stand to lose all of Olynyk/Mickey/Jerebko/Amir/Zeller.
Yeah, Zizic is coming, but no guarantee Yabu is playing for the Celtics next season.
You have Horford, Zizic, then who?
Maybe they keep Amir using the MLE (~8.5M)
He's inconsistent a lot. Awful against bad teams (ex. Suns game), but ELITE against elite teams (ex. Cavs and Warriors games).
I dont know if you are trying to imply this, but Kelly isnt some guy who shows up against big teams but not against bad teams. He shows up pretty randomly. Sometimes he is really good sometimes he sucks. You absolutely cant count on him to show up just because you are playing an "elite" team.
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AB is improving every year, he is probably a starter caliber player for most teams in the nba, he is playing near all star level and is a two-way shooting guard.
What we have here is a 6'3 first team all-defense guard that's averaging 17ppg and 6rpg(!) in just 33 mpg while shooting 42% from three. Boston Celtics fans think he's "probably starting caliber". ::) ::) ::)
File together with "bring Isaiah Thomas off the bench".
TP. Nail on the head.
AB doesn't have a high enough NBA 2K rating and thus is only a fringe starter.
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AB is improving every year, he is probably a starter caliber player for most teams in the nba, he is playing near all star level and is a two-way shooting guard.
What we have here is a 6'3 first team all-defense guard that's averaging 17ppg and 6rpg(!) in just 33 mpg while shooting 42% from three. Boston Celtics fans think he's "probably starting caliber". ::) ::) ::)
File together with "bring Isaiah Thomas off the bench".
TP. Nail on the head.
AB doesn't have a high enough NBA 2K rating and thus is only a fringe starter.
Starting caliber for most teams could just as easily mean that he would start for most teams. Meaning he is better than most starting shooting gaurds.
The posters next sentence reads: playing near all star level
As 10 guards made the all-star game(only 2 of which are classified as shooting gaurds) it is not unreasonable at all to take the posters meaning as Avery Bradley is around the 5th or so best shooting gaurds in the league and thus would be starting caliber for most teams.
Lets not jump all over vgulab for this one quite yet.
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AB is improving every year, he is probably a starter caliber player for most teams in the nba, he is playing near all star level and is a two-way shooting guard.
What we have here is a 6'3 first team all-defense guard that's averaging 17ppg and 6rpg(!) in just 33 mpg while shooting 42% from three. Boston Celtics fans think he's "probably starting caliber". ::) ::) ::)
File together with "bring Isaiah Thomas off the bench".
TP. Nail on the head.
AB doesn't have a high enough NBA 2K rating and thus is only a fringe starter.
except he said he was an all star level and two-way shooting guard. Sometimes it helps if you actually read the post you are criticizing. Might actually save some time.
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And here is the thing, Boston isn't going to be able to keep everyone. It just doesn't make sound financial sense and that is without adding anyone major this summer. If Boston adds a top tier free agent this summer, then multiple current players won't be on the team long term. It just isn't going to happen.
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I think this is a decision best left until we know who the Celtics get in the draft and what kind of trade deals are on the table this summer. The answer will wind up being that same as always. Take the best deal available. If the team can get better by shipping out any one of them and that's the best offer out there, then they're gone.
I will admit, though, I have a bias for keeping players drafted by the C's.
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To clarify, when I say in the post that "Bradley is odd man out", I don't mean the C's just let him walk away, I mean they possibly trade him for some front court help.
We may not be able to keep Olynyk after this season either.
I'm assuming we sign Hayward or a max/near Max FA, AND draft Fultz/Jackson.
I hope the Celtics don't keep Olynyk.
He's inconsistent a lot. Awful against bad teams (ex. Suns game), but ELITE against elite teams (ex. Cavs and Warriors games).
Thing is, the C's with a max signing stand to lose all of Olynyk/Mickey/Jerebko/Amir/Zeller.
Yeah, Zizic is coming, but no guarantee Yabu is playing for the Celtics next season.
You have Horford, Zizic, then who?
Maybe they keep Amir using the MLE (~8.5M)
You can't use cap space and the MLE in the same year. If you have cap space, you use it to sign pkayers. If you are over the cap, you can use the MLE. But you can't sign players using cap space and then once close or over the cap use the MLE.
The Celtics can use the room exception in the same year as cap space, however, thats a lot less money.
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If we sign Hayward and draft Fultz/Ball I think both AB and Olynyk will be outta here. Just not enough cash in the kitty to keep paying those guys what they will be worth on the open market. Could also lose Zeller/Amir etc. That's the downside to drafting a billion guys who all basically play the same position, eventually you have to make these tough decisions...
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Good to see all of them staying leading. All 3 are important in our future. It'll be expensive but worth it to keep them all
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If we sign Hayward and draft Fultz/Ball I think both AB and Olynyk will be outta here. Just not enough cash in the kitty to keep paying those guys what they will be worth on the open market. Could also lose Zeller/Amir etc. That's the downside to drafting a billion guys who all basically play the same position, eventually you have to make these tough decisions...
I think if we sign Hayward we are more likely to sign Olynyk, not less. Kelly would be the only real option we have for a quality 3rd big and we have his RFA rights so we can match an offer or go over the cap to re-sign him on a long-term deal.
I agree that some one or more of AB/Smart/Rozier would be moved if we sign Hayward and draft Fultz/Ball though.
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AB is improving every year, he is probably a starter caliber player for most teams in the nba, he is playing near all star level and is a two-way shooting guard.
What we have here is a 6'3 first team all-defense guard that's averaging 17ppg and 6rpg(!) in just 33 mpg while shooting 42% from three. Boston Celtics fans think he's "probably starting caliber". ::) ::) ::)
File together with "bring Isaiah Thomas off the bench".
TP. Nail on the head.
AB doesn't have a high enough NBA 2K rating and thus is only a fringe starter.
except he said he was an all star level and two-way shooting guard. Sometimes it helps if you actually read the post you are criticizing. Might actually save some time.
"probably starter caliber on most teams" and "all-star level" are mutually exclusive. if he is playing like an All-Star he is a starter on every team in the NBA
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If we sign Hayward and draft Fultz/Ball I think both AB and Olynyk will be outta here. Just not enough cash in the kitty to keep paying those guys what they will be worth on the open market. Could also lose Zeller/Amir etc. That's the downside to drafting a billion guys who all basically play the same position, eventually you have to make these tough decisions...
I think if we sign Hayward we are more likely to sign Olynyk, not less. Kelly would be the only real option we have for a quality 3rd big and we have his RFA rights so we can match an offer or go over the cap to re-sign him on a long-term deal.
I agree that some one or more of AB/Smart/Rozier would be moved if we sign Hayward and draft Fultz/Ball though.
We would have to renounce Kelly's RFA rights because his cap hold gets in the way of the max cap space. So I don't think there is any way to retain Kelly if no other moves are made to sign Hayward. Maybe we could trade someone like Crowder then to give us more wiggle room especially considering he plays the same position as Hayward.
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AB is improving every year, he is probably a starter caliber player for most teams in the nba, he is playing near all star level and is a two-way shooting guard.
What we have here is a 6'3 first team all-defense guard that's averaging 17ppg and 6rpg(!) in just 33 mpg while shooting 42% from three. Boston Celtics fans think he's "probably starting caliber". ::) ::) ::)
File together with "bring Isaiah Thomas off the bench".
TP. Nail on the head.
AB doesn't have a high enough NBA 2K rating and thus is only a fringe starter.
except he said he was an all star level and two-way shooting guard. Sometimes it helps if you actually read the post you are criticizing. Might actually save some time.
"probably starter caliber on most teams" and "all-star level" are mutually exclusive. if he is playing like an All-Star he is a starter on every team in the NBA
nah. They really arent. Plus he said "close to all-star level" meaning not as good.
He wouldnt start for Golden State or Toronto. IDK if he starts for Portland, he might not start for Washington.
Starting for between 26 and 28 teams qualifies as "most" in my book.
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To clarify, when I say in the post that "Bradley is odd man out", I don't mean the C's just let him walk away, I mean they possibly trade him for some front court help.
We may not be able to keep Olynyk after this season either.
I'm assuming we sign Hayward or a max/near Max FA, AND draft Fultz/Jackson.
I hope the Celtics don't keep Olynyk.
He's inconsistent a lot. Awful against bad teams (ex. Suns game), but ELITE against elite teams (ex. Cavs and Warriors games).
Thing is, the C's with a max signing stand to lose all of Olynyk/Mickey/Jerebko/Amir/Zeller.
Yeah, Zizic is coming, but no guarantee Yabu is playing for the Celtics next season.
You have Horford, Zizic, then who?
Maybe they keep Amir using the MLE (~8.5M)
He's inconsistent a lot. Awful against bad teams (ex. Suns game), but ELITE against elite teams (ex. Cavs and Warriors games).
I dont know if you are trying to imply this, but Kelly isnt some guy who shows up against big teams but not against bad teams. He shows up pretty randomly. Sometimes he is really good sometimes he sucks. You absolutely cant count on him to show up just because you are playing an "elite" team.
I guess. I mean honestly he can show up one day, not show up another.
Unfortunately it just feels like he shows up only once every 4 games..
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Good to see all of them staying leading. All 3 are important in our future. It'll be expensive but worth it to keep them all
So you're fine with no max signing in the future?
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This is an interesting topic. Mike Gorman actually talked about this a few weeks ago. He said the Celtics may have to chose down the road, and if he had to make a choice, no knock against him, but he would move IT and keep Smart and Bradley. He thinks they would be a more diverse, two way force as a backcourt.
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AB is improving every year, he is probably a starter caliber player for most teams in the nba, he is playing near all star level and is a two-way shooting guard.
What we have here is a 6'3 first team all-defense guard that's averaging 17ppg and 6rpg(!) in just 33 mpg while shooting 42% from three. Boston Celtics fans think he's "probably starting caliber". ::) ::) ::)
File together with "bring Isaiah Thomas off the bench".
TP. Nail on the head.
AB doesn't have a high enough NBA 2K rating and thus is only a fringe starter.
The guy already explained what he meant stop piling on.
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Good to see all of them staying leading. All 3 are important in our future. It'll be expensive but worth it to keep them all
So you're fine with no max signing in the future?
I would be fine if we didn't sign a max guy this summer, although that wouldn't be my plan A. Even if we do sign a max guy, I don't view it as a simple one must go proposition.
What is the objective of signing a max guy? It doesn't do anything for our internal development approach so the assumption is it's to take a leap forward into contention right? In which case might it make more sense to keep the guard rotation that is most likely to achieve that goal? In the situation where we get Fultz and a max FA, you aren't going to count on Fultz to provide meaningful minutes. He plays in a position which takes years to fully develop in the NBA. Say you then remove Bradley, aren't you taking a step backwards when you are really wanting to move forwards? It doesn't make sense. Better almost to keep Bradley and potentially lose him for nothing in the summer, but at least you'd gone all in on a championship that year.
There is a sense of jumping the gun here though. We haven't got Fultz, we haven't signed a max FA and the odds are stacked against us in both cases. In a fairly shallow FA class, the most likely thing to happen is we draft at 3/4, sign no max FA and look to do one of 2 things with the cap space;
1) Renegotiate IT, benefitting from the fact that his salary post 2018 will be a lot lower than if we wait another year
2) We do what we did in 2015, sign a lot of 1+1 guys and take a look at 2018, a more difficult approach
We'd still be extremely well positioned to make a trade for a guy like Butler if that was what we wanted, or continue the development that has seen our wins almost triple in 3 years
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It kind of depends on how the ping pong balls unfold this summer and who they end up drafting. I assume the C's will probably take BPA so that might mean drafting Fultz or Ball with so much uncertainty at the guard spot for 2018 with IT4, Smart, and Bradley all hitting FA (Smart is RFA I believe). And I think that would be the right play to make.
The Brooklyn picks and IT have given the C's the best of 2 worlds. They have the benefit of almost guaranteed lottery picks now for 3 years in a row (Brown, 17 pick, 18 pick) but have found a player who has blossomed into an all star caliber player that also equates to winning games while giving minutes to our young players Rozier/Smart/Brown.
While I love Bradley, I think he is the odd man out in this case. He has a skill set that could fit pretty much every team in the NBA. He can play All NBA caliber defense and he has turned into a solid 3 pt shooter. You could get something good for him if you package him with some other young players/picks.
I do not think the C's management will let IT leave the Cs. That would constitute a major step back at this point and basically nullify the point of signing Horford and go against pretty much everything they have said over the past couple of seasons. I think they go after a max FA (Hayward for example), trade AB to a big/bench depth, and re-sign IT. It makes them competitive for the next 4 years and gives enough time to see how Brown and the other lottery picks mature.
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Smart is not a starter he is a versatile defender who makes big plays --sometimes--his offense and offense choices are poor--
Bradley is the better man on man defender, compared to Smart, by quite a bit....
We must keep Bradley--Marcus is a bonus but less necessary--would be nice to keep all 3 and the improving offense off the bench of Rozier. But all but IT should be available for the right price.
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It kind of depends on how the ping pong balls unfold this summer and who they end up drafting. I assume the C's will probably take BPA so that might mean drafting Fultz or Ball with so much uncertainty at the guard spot for 2018 with IT4, Smart, and Bradley all hitting FA (Smart is RFA I believe). And I think that would be the right play to make.
The Brooklyn picks and IT have given the C's the best of 2 worlds. They have the benefit of almost guaranteed lottery picks now for 3 years in a row (Brown, 17 pick, 18 pick) but have found a player who has blossomed into an all star caliber player that also equates to winning games while giving minutes to our young players Rozier/Smart/Brown.
While I love Bradley, I think he is the odd man out in this case. He has a skill set that could fit pretty much every team in the NBA. He can play All NBA caliber defense and he has turned into a solid 3 pt shooter. You could get something good for him if you package him with some other young players/picks.
I do not think the C's management will let IT leave the Cs. That would constitute a major step back at this point and basically nullify the point of signing Horford and go against pretty much everything they have said over the past couple of seasons. I think they go after a max FA (Hayward for example), trade AB to a big/bench depth, and re-sign IT. It makes them competitive for the next 4 years and gives enough time to see how Brown and the other lottery picks mature.
We do not have to wait until the summer to know about the lottery as NBA Draft Lottery is on May 16:-))
http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/when-is-the-nba-draft-2017-date-time-other-key-nba-dates/
Summer begins on June 21st!!
Smitty77
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It kind of depends on how the ping pong balls unfold this summer and who they end up drafting. I assume the C's will probably take BPA so that might mean drafting Fultz or Ball with so much uncertainty at the guard spot for 2018 with IT4, Smart, and Bradley all hitting FA (Smart is RFA I believe). And I think that would be the right play to make.
The Brooklyn picks and IT have given the C's the best of 2 worlds. They have the benefit of almost guaranteed lottery picks now for 3 years in a row (Brown, 17 pick, 18 pick) but have found a player who has blossomed into an all star caliber player that also equates to winning games while giving minutes to our young players Rozier/Smart/Brown.
While I love Bradley, I think he is the odd man out in this case. He has a skill set that could fit pretty much every team in the NBA. He can play All NBA caliber defense and he has turned into a solid 3 pt shooter. You could get something good for him if you package him with some other young players/picks.
I do not think the C's management will let IT leave the Cs. That would constitute a major step back at this point and basically nullify the point of signing Horford and go against pretty much everything they have said over the past couple of seasons. I think they go after a max FA (Hayward for example), trade AB to a big/bench depth, and re-sign IT. It makes them competitive for the next 4 years and gives enough time to see how Brown and the other lottery picks mature.
We do not have to wait until the summer to know about the lottery as NBA Draft Lottery is on May 16:-))
http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/when-is-the-nba-draft-2017-date-time-other-key-nba-dates/
Summer begins on June 21st!!
Smitty77
Touche
Yes, I meant lottery day. The 4th pick overall might change things as opposed to the number 1.
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I think it is crazy to say Bradley is the odd man out and we should keep Smart, especially if we get Fultz or Ball. Smart is unlikely to ever become a plus offensive player, and while he is a very versatile defender, I'm pretty sure Fultz/Ball and Jaylen Brown will be a better choice for those minutes within the next year.
Bradley is far more valuable. I know he will cost more, but thats what happens when someone is better.
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Bradley stays. Danny deals Rozier. And Fultz/Ball take Rozier's minutes. Neither one will start on this team next year but can learn from IT/MS/AB.
Eventually if Fultz/Ball show they should be getting starter's minutes then one of those three might be traded, but not for another year.
Don't forget that these guys get injured. It's not like they're always available. Expect at least one of those three of IT/MS/AB to be injured. So Fultz/Ball will fill in as the third guard in those scenarios. And not just point guard. But third guard with these guys sliding from PG to SG depending on who's in the game.
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Bradley stays. Danny deals Rozier. And Fultz/Ball take Rozier's minutes. Neither one will start on this team next year but can learn from IT/MS/AB.
Eventually if Fultz/Ball show they should be getting starter's minutes then one of those three might be traded, but not for another year.
Don't forget that these guys get injured. It's not like they're always available. Expect at least one of those three of IT/MS/AB to be injured. So Fultz/Ball will fill in as the third guard in those scenarios. And not just point guard. But third guard with these guys sliding from PG to SG depending on who's in the game.
Despite Smart Bradley and Thomas missing a combined 31 games, Terry Rozier has still only managed 16.3 minutes per game. Then understand that Jaylen Brown's role should grow and that Markelle Fultz should be the best rookie guard since Kyrie Irving.
The numbers dont quite add up. Playing Markelle Fultz under 20 minutes a game would be unwise.
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Bradley stays. Danny deals Rozier. And Fultz/Ball take Rozier's minutes. Neither one will start on this team next year but can learn from IT/MS/AB.
Eventually if Fultz/Ball show they should be getting starter's minutes then one of those three might be traded, but not for another year.
Don't forget that these guys get injured. It's not like they're always available. Expect at least one of those three of IT/MS/AB to be injured. So Fultz/Ball will fill in as the third guard in those scenarios. And not just point guard. But third guard with these guys sliding from PG to SG depending on who's in the game.
Despite Smart Bradley and Thomas missing a combined 31 games, Terry Rozier has still only managed 16.3 minutes per game. Then understand that Jaylen Brown's role should grow and that Markelle Fultz should be the best rookie guard since Kyrie Irving.
The numbers dont quite add up. Playing Markelle Fultz under 20 minutes a game would be unwise.
Playing Fultz or another rookie 15-20mpg seems ok to me, especially early in the season.
If his play warrants more minutes, he gets them, but cross that bridge when we get to it.
It's an unusual situation, remember, for a top pick to go to a good team. We shouldn't have any preconceptions about what would be wise or unwise based on the fact that most #1 picks play big minutes.
And heck, if he's absolutely killing it, you can just trade one of those guys at the deadline.
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The thing that concerns me is that the C's are 5 points better with Smart on the floor compared to Bradley. Bradley's net +/- is -2, and Smart's is +3.
If it weren't for that, I'd have no hesitation in saying we should pick AB over Smart, for all the reasons people list above.
I suppose there's hope that we might keep both, if Bradley's market doesn't pan out and we strike out in FA. We could re-sign him.
And yet the Celtics most used lineup, in terms of games and minutes played, features Avery Bradley, and not Marcus Smart. Simply substituting Smart for Bradley in that lineup results in a - 0.9 net point differential.
But as a point of reference, Boston only has five 5-man lineups that have played at least 20 games this season. Four of those lineups feature Smart, two of them Bradley. Both of the lineups that feature Bradley have positive point differentials, while only two of the four lineups that feature Smart have a positive point differential, and one of them also features Bradley.
This tells me Bradley has been the more impactful player, and that's Smart's overall better net point differential is boosted by the fact he has played more of his time against bench units. This is substantiated by the fact Smart is featured in more overall lineups, but that none of them have played significant minutes or games together, which is usually the case with bench units.
If there was one knock against Bradley, and it's not an insignificant knock, it's that he has trouble staying healthy.
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Bradley stays. Danny deals Rozier. And Fultz/Ball take Rozier's minutes. Neither one will start on this team next year but can learn from IT/MS/AB.
Eventually if Fultz/Ball show they should be getting starter's minutes then one of those three might be traded, but not for another year.
Don't forget that these guys get injured. It's not like they're always available. Expect at least one of those three of IT/MS/AB to be injured. So Fultz/Ball will fill in as the third guard in those scenarios. And not just point guard. But third guard with these guys sliding from PG to SG depending on who's in the game.
Despite Smart Bradley and Thomas missing a combined 31 games, Terry Rozier has still only managed 16.3 minutes per game. Then understand that Jaylen Brown's role should grow and that Markelle Fultz should be the best rookie guard since Kyrie Irving.
The numbers dont quite add up. Playing Markelle Fultz under 20 minutes a game would be unwise.
Playing Fultz or another rookie 15-20mpg seems ok to me, especially early in the season.
If his play warrants more minutes, he gets them, but cross that bridge when we get to it.
It's an unusual situation, remember, for a top pick to go to a good team. We shouldn't have any preconceptions about what would be wise or unwise based on the fact that most #1 picks play big minutes.
And heck, if he's absolutely killing it, you can just trade one of those guys at the deadline.
I believe Markelle Fultz will prove to be more than deserving of 20 mpg. He should be MUCH better than Jaylen Brown is this year.
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Bradley stays. Danny deals Rozier. And Fultz/Ball take Rozier's minutes. Neither one will start on this team next year but can learn from IT/MS/AB.
Eventually if Fultz/Ball show they should be getting starter's minutes then one of those three might be traded, but not for another year.
Don't forget that these guys get injured. It's not like they're always available. Expect at least one of those three of IT/MS/AB to be injured. So Fultz/Ball will fill in as the third guard in those scenarios. And not just point guard. But third guard with these guys sliding from PG to SG depending on who's in the game.
Despite Smart Bradley and Thomas missing a combined 31 games, Terry Rozier has still only managed 16.3 minutes per game. Then understand that Jaylen Brown's role should grow and that Markelle Fultz should be the best rookie guard since Kyrie Irving.
The numbers dont quite add up. Playing Markelle Fultz under 20 minutes a game would be unwise.
Playing Fultz or another rookie 15-20mpg seems ok to me, especially early in the season.
If his play warrants more minutes, he gets them, but cross that bridge when we get to it.
It's an unusual situation, remember, for a top pick to go to a good team. We shouldn't have any preconceptions about what would be wise or unwise based on the fact that most #1 picks play big minutes.
And heck, if he's absolutely killing it, you can just trade one of those guys at the deadline.
Exactly.
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The thing that concerns me is that the C's are 5 points better with Smart on the floor compared to Bradley. Bradley's net +/- is -2, and Smart's is +3.
If it weren't for that, I'd have no hesitation in saying we should pick AB over Smart, for all the reasons people list above.
I suppose there's hope that we might keep both, if Bradley's market doesn't pan out and we strike out in FA. We could re-sign him.
And yet the Celtics most used lineup, in terms of games and minutes played, features Avery Bradley, and not Marcus Smart. Simply substituting Smart for Bradley in that lineup results in a - 0.9 net point differential.
But as a point of reference, Boston only has five 5-man lineups that have played at least 20 games this season. Four of those lineups feature Smart, two of them Bradley. Both of the lineups that feature Bradley have positive point differentials, while only two of the four lineups that feature Smart have a positive point differential, and one of them also features Bradley.
This tells me Bradley has been the more impactful player, and that's Smart's overall better net point differential is boosted by the fact he has played more of his time against bench units. This is substantiated by the fact Smart is featured in more overall lineups, but that none of them have played significant minutes or games together, which is usually the case with bench units.
If there was one knock against Bradley, and it's not an insignificant knock, it's that he has trouble staying healthy.
TP Avery is preferred by CBS against the opposition's best players for a reason. Pretty good judge Stevens is. Avery is a consistent scorer who keeps adding to his average ppg. Smart is hot and cold in a way that will limit his opportunities, no matter how good he is in other aspects, until he becomes consistent.
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So we've seen how this team is without IT. Without him this is a lottery team.
Anyone's opinions on this matter change or anything?
I know this is a very small sample size, but C's are 2-5 without IT and could have been 1-6 if not for Crowder/Horford in the Brooklyn game.
Reality is there is no one else on this team who can create their own offense like IT can (and Evan Turner could - we didn't really replace him when he left), and there's no other legit 22+ PPG scorer as well.
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Bradley's looking great tonight!
Since the All Star break, it's Marcus who is on the outside looking in.
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Bradley's looking great tonight!
Since the All Star break, it's Marcus who is on the outside looking in.
As I've said, this is getting REAL difficult to determine lol.
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The thing that concerns me is that the C's are 5 points better with Smart on the floor compared to Bradley. Bradley's net +/- is -2, and Smart's is +3.
If it weren't for that, I'd have no hesitation in saying we should pick AB over Smart, for all the reasons people list above.
I suppose there's hope that we might keep both, if Bradley's market doesn't pan out and we strike out in FA. We could re-sign him.
And yet the Celtics most used lineup, in terms of games and minutes played, features Avery Bradley, and not Marcus Smart. Simply substituting Smart for Bradley in that lineup results in a - 0.9 net point differential.
But as a point of reference, Boston only has five 5-man lineups that have played at least 20 games this season. Four of those lineups feature Smart, two of them Bradley. Both of the lineups that feature Bradley have positive point differentials, while only two of the four lineups that feature Smart have a positive point differential, and one of them also features Bradley.
This tells me Bradley has been the more impactful player, and that's Smart's overall better net point differential is boosted by the fact he has played more of his time against bench units. This is substantiated by the fact Smart is featured in more overall lineups, but that none of them have played significant minutes or games together, which is usually the case with bench units.
If there was one knock against Bradley, and it's not an insignificant knock, it's that he has trouble staying healthy.
TP for the strong analysis. I think I'm shifting from 'AB is the odd man out' to 'Incomplete: more info/time needed.'