CelticsStrong
Around the League => Transaction Ideas and Rumors => Topic started by: TheTruthFot18 on March 03, 2017, 09:52:38 AM
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Thought this was interesting considering the hype around it at the time.
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/18809989/kevin-pelton-weekly-mailbag-featuring-nba-buyouts (http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/18809989/kevin-pelton-weekly-mailbag-featuring-nba-buyouts)
"Have the details of the actual trade package Boston proposed to Charlotte ever been revealed? What were the four first-round picks and where did they land? Were the Brooklyn picks involved?" - Emmanuel Mpagi
At the time, Zach Lowe reported that the package included two 2015 picks: the Celtics' No. 16 pick, used to draft Terry Rozier, and one Boston was to acquire from the Atlanta Hawks (No. 15, eventually traded to the Washington Wizards so they could draft Kelly Oubre). Lowe also reported it included one of the Nets' picks. I've since clarified that it would have been the 2016 pick, which landed No. 3 and was used to draft Jaylen Brown, not the swap rights Boston holds this year or Brooklyn's 2018 pick.
Lastly, Lowe reported the Charlotte Hornets could "probably" have gotten their choice of a protected first-round pick from the Minnesota Timberwolves (which did not convey last season and converted instead to a 2016 second-round pick used to take Rade Zagorac and a 2017 second-round pick) or the protected first-round pick from the Memphis Grizzlies that won't convey until 2019 at the earliest.
I haven't yet worked out exactly how to depreciate future picks, but if you go by my trade value chart and use the Minnesota second-round picks -- assuming this year's falls at No. 39, a little worse than it would be if the season ended today -- here's how this deal rates.
Charlotte sends:
2015 No. 9: 2,120 points
Boston sends:
2015 No. 15: 1,630 points
2015 No. 16: 1,580 points
2016 No. 3: 2,890 points
2017 No. 35: 600 points
2018 No. 39: 500 points
Total: 7,200 points
To reiterate, this is the most cynical view possible of Charlotte's decision. It wasn't clear at the time the 2016 Nets pick would be so valuable, since the team had not yet bought out Deron Williams, and future picks surely are somewhat discounted in value. And both teams were correct to believe the No. 9 pick was unusually valuable in 2015 because of the depth of the draft. (So far, however, No. 11 pick Myles Turner looks like a better prospect than either Hornets pick Frank Kaminsky III or Celtics target Justise Winslow.)
Still, based on typical pick values, merely trading the 15th and 16th picks for the ninth pick would have been overpaying -- as most trades up in the draft are. The additional picks would have made this an incredibly lopsided trade.
I knew at the time we would have paid a lot for that 9th pick down the road. Glad it never happened. Glad Charlotte was that dumb ;D
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TP for the post.
I am also glad it didn't happen.
I think Jaylen is already better than Justise...am I crazy?
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I'll believe the rumors when Danny confirms it.
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If true, what a disaster of a trade that would've been.
These boards would going insane.
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I'll believe the rumors when Danny confirms it.
You think Danny would ever confirm something like that? If true, its a horrible look for him.
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No way Ainge will give unprotected unknown 1st pick.
At the least he would have made top 3 protected, like all the picks are dealt nowadays (at least since Billy King incident).
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I rest my case.
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edit : sorry double post
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Zach Lowe confirmed it? Sure. Then it must be true. (sarcasm)
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If true, what a disaster of a trade that would've been.
These boards would going insane.
Maybe thats why we haven't seen any blockbuster trades. Teams are looking for that big over pay and Danny is not desperate to make a move anymore.
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I'll believe the rumors when Danny confirms it.
Danny will never confirm it, but he did say he offered to much and was glad the trade was turned down. Additionally, Danny never disputed that rumor or that a Brooklyn pick was included. It is likely he would have disputed the rumor if so. That is as close to confirmation as you will ever get.
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TP for the post.
I am also glad it didn't happen.
I think Jaylen is already better than Justise...am I crazy?
Before Jae really came into himself starting in the 2015-16 season I thought Winslow was our answer at the SF spot. I also would have taken Stanley Johnson :-\
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I'll believe the rumors when Danny confirms it.
Danny will never confirm it, but he did say he offered to much and was glad the trade was turned down. Additionally, Danny never disputed that rumor or that a Brooklyn pick was included. It is likely he would have disputed the rumor if so. That is as close to confirmation as you will ever get.
Stretch.
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Not buying this for a minute.
Danny would put heavy protections on unprotected picks.
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Who cares if it's true or not, why is anyone still holding on to this and what is gained if it is true? Man, this isn't beating a dead horse, this is like beating a dead unicorn!
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TP for the post.
I am also glad it didn't happen.
I think Jaylen is already better than Justise...am I crazy?
Not even close to crazy. I know some vocal members of this board were saying Jaylen would be lucky to be as good as Winslow one day. Well, his ceiling and current production look a lot better than Winslow.
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No way Ainge will give unprotected unknown 1st pick.
At the least he would have made top 3 protected, like all the picks are dealt nowadays (at least since Billy King incident).
Could he have protected the Nets pick in that trade? I know it would have been possible at the deadline this year, but was it possible a couple of years ago?
If it was possible, then I'd assume Danny would have had something more like top 10 (or so) protections on it, since we were trading it and others for a #9 overall pick
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Always considered this a huge non-issue. Still do. It didn't happen so it doesn't matter.
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I rest my case.
and what case would that be -- your claim that Danny is a better trader than a drafter? if this is true, this would be worse than the original Antoine deal with Dallas
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I rest my case.
and what case would that be -- your claim that Danny is a better trader than a drafter? if this is true, this would be worse than the original Antoine deal with Dallas
Nice attempt at disingenuity.
My case that Ainge and his son are at best - at best - average evaluators of college talent.
Who missed, badly, on Justice Winslow. This offer, frankly, is one of the worst trades in NBA history. Ainge should thank Baby Jesus every night that Jordan is an even worse evaluator of college talent than he and his son are.
Ainge needs to get his cojones back and stick to dealing for veterans. He will NEVER draft a champion in Boston.
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I rest my case.
and what case would that be -- your claim that Danny is a better trader than a drafter? if this is true, this would be worse than the original Antoine deal with Dallas
Nice attempt at disingenuity.
My case that Ainge and his son are at best - at best - average evaluators of college talent.
Who missed, badly, on Justice Winslow. This offer, frankly, is one of the worst trades in NBA history. Ainge should thank Baby Jesus every night that Jordan is an even worse evaluator of college talent than he and his son are.
Ainge needs to get his cojones back and stick to dealing for veterans. He will NEVER draft a champion in Boston.
Danny Ainge: draft Jaylen Brown
Coach Bo: draft Kris Dunn
I think I'll stick with Danny.
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I think Danny would have been "Billy Kinged" if he gave up all that for Winslow. I can't believe Charlotte didn't take the picks. Frank Kaminsky ain't all that. He's a little better than KO, and even that is debatable.
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I think Danny would have been "Billy Kinged" if he gave up all that for Winslow. I can't believe Charlotte didn't take the picks. Frank Kaminsky ain't all that. He's a little better than KO, and even that is debatable.
Which is why I seriously doubt that is in fact what was offered.
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Who cares if it's true or not, why is anyone still holding on to this and what is gained if it is true? Man, this isn't beating a dead horse, this is like beating a dead unicorn!
I'd guess that some people are curious because details of the trades Danny *didn't* make provide useful information about what options he really faces. Maybe more so than the deals he did make.
For example, if this is at all representative of the asking prices Danny has faced in trades over the last several years, it is less surprising that he hasn't made many moves, and the trades he has made look more impressive in historical context.
Other people may be using this as an input into some fictional narrative they carry around in their minds, as though this one deal Danny didn't even make is proof positive about something - even if it is inconsistent with most of his other decisions. But it's pretty easy to see who those people are and filter their opinions accordingly.
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He doesn't even go into what the extra 'costs' were to acquire the #15 pick (RJ at #28 and what else??). This seems like a boatload of hogwash to me. I would have to assume that #16, 28, Minny 2nds, and another first (Bos '18 or Mem?) were the four 1sts included in the deal, not the BKN pick.
If somehow a BKN pick was offered, hopefully Danny learned his lesson (without actually having to learn the lesson).
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No way Ainge will give unprotected unknown 1st pick.
At the least he would have made top 3 protected, like all the picks are dealt nowadays (at least since Billy King incident).
Could he have protected the Nets pick in that trade? I know it would have been possible at the deadline this year, but was it possible a couple of years ago?
If it was possible, then I'd assume Danny would have had something more like top 10 (or so) protections on it, since we were trading it and others for a #9 overall pick
I believe so. We had other first round picks in 2015 and 2016, so there's no Stepien issue.
What I'm less sure about is whether the 2017 arrangement could have involved the swap rights, in the event the protection was triggered. I don't see why not, but I've seen other people talk as though we couldn't trade them (or couldn't back then, but can now). Others might be more informed than I am.
But even there, even if we couldn't trade the swap rights, the trade could have defaulted to something else, like other 1st rounders (like the 2018 pick, or others), with no trouble.
I do remember seeing the offer described as something like "as many as X 1st rounders," suggesting it was variable. Which means to me that something was protected somewhere, right? Otherwise that number would be certain.
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No way Ainge will give unprotected unknown 1st pick.
At the least he would have made top 3 protected, like all the picks are dealt nowadays (at least since Billy King incident).
At the time he wouldn't have been able to add a protection to the pick, that came along with the new CBA.
Danny said they probably went too far with their offer so it's believable. What is also shows is that a first rounder in the current year is waaaay overvalued because teams key in on players. So when people say that players were bought for peanuts this deadline, bear in mind that we may not have had the asset that the other team coveted.
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Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make. That is what I also kept in mind this past trade deadline. Giving up several of our key player plus Nets picks for Butler or George
Would come back to haunt us.
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Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make. That is what I also kept in mind this past trade deadline. Giving up several of our key player plus Nets picks for Butler or George
Would come back to haunt us.
not would, could, or it could have been the best thing in the world to do as it might have led to at least 1 title.
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I rest my case.
and what case would that be -- your claim that Danny is a better trader than a drafter? if this is true, this would be worse than the original Antoine deal with Dallas
Nice attempt at disingenuity.
My case that Ainge and his son are at best - at best - average evaluators of college talent.
Who missed, badly, on Justice Winslow. This offer, frankly, is one of the worst trades in NBA history. Ainge should thank Baby Jesus every night that Jordan is an even worse evaluator of college talent than he and his son are.
Ainge needs to get his cojones back and stick to dealing for veterans. He will NEVER draft a champion in Boston.
Danny Ainge: draft Jaylen Brown
Coach Bo: draft Kris Dunn
I think I'll stick with Danny.
If I recall Bo wanted to trade that pick for Okafor
The same Okafor who makes a horrid Sixer team even worse when he plays.
To be fair to Bo, there aren't a lot of viable trade targets to choose from, so he's gotta reach a little bit to continue this ego-driven vendetta against Ainge.
Gotta be a tough job, feel bad for the guy!
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Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make. That is what I also kept in mind this past trade deadline. Giving up several of our key player plus Nets picks for Butler or George
Would come back to haunt us.
not would, could, or it could have been the best thing in the world to do as it might have led to at least 1 title.
Possibly. But after watching Jaylen and Marcus take on Lebron and Kyrie the other night, I have to think keeping them plus other assets over Butler or George was correct. Ainge also sees them more than we do by watching them in practice so he has a better sense of what they can give us long term.
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No way Ainge will give unprotected unknown 1st pick.
At the least he would have made top 3 protected, like all the picks are dealt nowadays (at least since Billy King incident).
At the time he wouldn't have been able to add a protection to the pick, that came along with the new CBA.
Danny said they probably went too far with their offer so it's believable. What is also shows is that a first rounder in the current year is waaaay overvalued because teams key in on players. So when people say that players were bought for peanuts this deadline, bear in mind that we may not have had the asset that the other team coveted.
I guess I'm unclear on the rule change. I thought the recent change allowed teams to protect *conditionally acquired picks*, which wasn't allowed before. The BKN 17 would fall into that category.
But I also thought that even previously, a team could protect a pick it owned outright from another team, if it traded it again. BKN 16 would have fallen into that category.
Is that wrong? Was it also against the rules to protect *any acquired pick*, until recently? Meaning that yes, we could not have protected the BKN 16 pick in a proposed Winslow trade?
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Let's just forget this ever happened.
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No way Ainge will give unprotected unknown 1st pick.
At the least he would have made top 3 protected, like all the picks are dealt nowadays (at least since Billy King incident).
Could he have protected the Nets pick in that trade? I know it would have been possible at the deadline this year, but was it possible a couple of years ago?
If it was possible, then I'd assume Danny would have had something more like top 10 (or so) protections on it, since we were trading it and others for a #9 overall pick
I believe so. We had other first round picks in 2015 and 2016, so there's no Stepien issue.
What I'm less sure about is whether the 2017 arrangement could have involved the swap rights, in the event the protection was triggered. I don't see why not, but I've seen other people talk as though we couldn't trade them (or couldn't back then, but can now). Others might be more informed than I am.
But even there, even if we couldn't trade the swap rights, the trade could have defaulted to something else, like other 1st rounders (like the 2018 pick, or others), with no trouble.
I do remember seeing the offer described as something like "as many as X 1st rounders," suggesting it was variable. Which means to me that something was protected somewhere, right? Otherwise that number would be certain.
That last part may be because there was rumored to be a choice between the Memphis 2019 pick and the Minnesota pick that turned into two seconds, so just based on that option (and the protections on the Minnesota pick) would have made "as many as 4 1st rounders" accurate