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Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: lightspeed5 on January 23, 2014, 02:34:05 PM

Title: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: lightspeed5 on January 23, 2014, 02:34:05 PM
If we keep losing, we'll keep climbing

if you use the ESPN mock draft generator, we win a good amount of times. They think we pick jabari with the first pick.

http://espn.go.com/nba/lottery2014/mockdraft
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: kraidstar on January 23, 2014, 02:55:21 PM
and thankfully in this draft there are several potential stars in the first ten picks. if we finish bottom-5 then we'll get a top-6 pick for sure. we're in great shape for a rebuild considering we were just contending a short hwhile ago.
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: lightspeed5 on January 23, 2014, 02:56:48 PM
and thankfully in this draft there are several potential stars in the first ten picks. if we finish bottom-5 then we'll get a top-6 pick for sure. we're in great shape for a rebuild considering we were just contending a short hwhile ago.
at pick 6, we have Aaron Gordon. Him and rondo would be amazing in transition.
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Monkhouse on January 23, 2014, 03:07:13 PM
We basically have a top 5-6 pick either Exum/Gordon.

I would prefer we could maybe move up to grab Joel Embiid or Parker/Wiggins.

But if we can get someone like Exum or even Smart, I would love that too. It would make Bradley expendable, and we could maybe package Green/AB for someone better.
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: manl_lui on January 23, 2014, 03:13:50 PM
and thankfully in this draft there are several potential stars in the first ten picks. if we finish bottom-5 then we'll get a top-6 pick for sure. we're in great shape for a rebuild considering we were just contending a short hwhile ago.
at pick 6, we have Aaron Gordon. Him and rondo would be amazing in transition.

I want no part in Aaron Gordon. From his highlights I just assume he is a poor man's Blake Griffin. If we do get top 5 - I rather have Smart and Exum with the 5th or 6th pick (they seem to switch places a lot)
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Fafnir on January 23, 2014, 03:22:09 PM
and thankfully in this draft there are several potential stars in the first ten picks. if we finish bottom-5 then we'll get a top-6 pick for sure. we're in great shape for a rebuild considering we were just contending a short hwhile ago.
Actually no we won't. While its unlikely you can always move down 3 spots in the lottery, unless you're at the bottom.

Happened to the C's before....

Edit: Specifically with the 5th seed the draft lottery we'd have a 8.4% chance to end up with the 7th pick and 0.4% chance at the 8th pick.
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: LooseCannon on January 23, 2014, 03:39:30 PM
8.8% is slightly slower than the probability that Rajon Rondo hits five free throws in a row, based on his career average.
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: kozlodoev on January 23, 2014, 03:54:57 PM
if you use the ESPN mock draft generator, we win a good amount of times. They think we pick jabari with the first pick.
Let me guess, about once every ten times :P
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: sofutomygaha on January 23, 2014, 03:56:21 PM
if you use the ESPN mock draft generator, we win a good amount of times. They think we pick jabari with the first pick.
Let me guess, about once every ten times :P

MATH'D!!!
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: sofutomygaha on January 23, 2014, 04:01:28 PM
Given that the first three picks are, in my mind, complete awesomesauce in this year's draft who would all have easily gone #1 last year, I'm more interested in our odds of being in the first 3 picks.

If we finish with the NBAs 5th worst record, the odds of picking in the 1st three are about 30%

with the NBAs 4th worst record, about 37%

3rd worst, 47%

2nd worst, 56%

worst, 65%
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: kozlodoev on January 23, 2014, 04:02:33 PM
if you use the ESPN mock draft generator, we win a good amount of times. They think we pick jabari with the first pick.
Let me guess, about once every ten times :P
MATH'D!!!
Let me give you one more while we're at it: even if we end up with the worst record in the league, we're more likely to get the fourth pick rather than the first pick.
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: sofutomygaha on January 23, 2014, 04:08:01 PM
if you use the ESPN mock draft generator, we win a good amount of times. They think we pick jabari with the first pick.
Let me guess, about once every ten times :P
MATH'D!!!
Let me give you one more while we're at it: even if we end up with the worst record in the league, we're more likely to get the fourth pick rather than the first pick.

While that is true, it's also a 100% chance of drafting Embiid, Parker, Wiggins, or Randle. Has there ever been a better reason to finish last?
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: fairweatherfan on January 23, 2014, 04:17:56 PM
if you use the ESPN mock draft generator, we win a good amount of times. They think we pick jabari with the first pick.
Let me guess, about once every ten times :P
MATH'D!!!
Let me give you one more while we're at it: even if we end up with the worst record in the league, we're more likely to get the fourth pick rather than the first pick.

Hmmm, that doesn't fit my half-baked intuitions about probability, so that sounds an awful lot like a conspiracy to me.  If we won a practice draw on top of that I'm pretty sure we could sue.
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: KGs Knee on January 23, 2014, 04:19:14 PM
Ooooh, 8.8%!?  Sign me up!  ::)

I have to watch this garbage basketball (well, actually I don't watch much) for a measly 8% chance?  What a disgrace to the sport tanking is.  I wish there was truly a way to ban this type of nonsense.

You play to win the game, duh!
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: KGs Knee on January 23, 2014, 04:22:03 PM
if you use the ESPN mock draft generator, we win a good amount of times. They think we pick jabari with the first pick.
Let me guess, about once every ten times :P
MATH'D!!!
Let me give you one more while we're at it: even if we end up with the worst record in the league, we're more likely to get the fourth pick rather than the first pick.

Hmmm, that doesn't fit my half-baked intuitions about probability, so that sounds an awful lot like a conspiracy to me.  If we won a practice draw on top of that I'm pretty sure we could sue.

Yeah that doesn't sound right.  I'm sure there is a nifty Venn diagram somewhere that could solve this.
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: sofutomygaha on January 23, 2014, 04:25:14 PM
Ooooh, 8.8%!?  Sign me up!  ::)

I have to watch this garbage basketball (well, actually I don't watch much) for a measly 8% chance?  What a disgrace to the sport tanking is.  I wish there was truly a way to ban this type of nonsense.

You play to win the game, duh!

Settle down. The draft isn't over after the first pick.

In our current slot, Aaron Gordon- the best player on the best team in the NCAA- is literally the WORST that we could do.

Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Boston Garden Leprechaun on January 23, 2014, 04:30:57 PM
Ooooh, 8.8%!?  Sign me up!  ::)

I have to watch this garbage basketball (well, actually I don't watch much) for a measly 8% chance?  What a disgrace to the sport tanking is.  I wish there was truly a way to ban this type of nonsense.

You play to win the game, duh!

don't watch? Then don't worry. Us watchers got ya covered. no worries.
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: fairweatherfan on January 23, 2014, 04:48:03 PM
You play to win the game, duh!

I agree, I just think we're thinking of different games.
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: KGs Knee on January 23, 2014, 05:01:28 PM
Ooooh, 8.8%!?  Sign me up!  ::)

I have to watch this garbage basketball (well, actually I don't watch much) for a measly 8% chance?  What a disgrace to the sport tanking is.  I wish there was truly a way to ban this type of nonsense.

You play to win the game, duh!

Settle down. The draft isn't over after the first pick.

In our current slot, Aaron Gordon- the best player on the best team in the NCAA- is literally the WORST that we could do.

Well that stinks.  Gordon is one of the players I really hope we don't draft.
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Smokeeye123 on January 23, 2014, 05:46:17 PM
If we had lost last night we'd be third. honestly last night was an abnomaly...Phil pressey scoring 20 points? Wizards losing to basically a D-League team?
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: obnoxiousmime on January 23, 2014, 05:48:53 PM
No matter where you end up there is going to be some luck involved regarding the first three picks, even for the Bucks (64.3% chance of a top 3 pick).

A nice spot for Boston to end up in would be 3rd, meaning they need to win less than the Sixers (may be tough) and Utah (realistic). Placing third would mean it'd be very unlikely they'd fall out of the top 5.
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: KGs Knee on January 23, 2014, 06:02:09 PM
The draft isn't over after the first pick.

I'm aware.

There are actually at least a handful of players I'd be happy with, particularly in the top 5.

Gordon is just not one of them.   That, and it's still too much of a crap shoot for me to support intentionally going after it.
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: green147 on January 23, 2014, 06:12:38 PM
It would also give the C's a 91.2% chance at a top 6 pick. That's one of: Embiid, Parker, Wiggins, Randle, Exum or Smart.

Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: LEHGOCELTICS on January 24, 2014, 09:50:43 AM
This draft is loaded, and the worst team never wins the lottery anyways. We just need to position ourselves in the top 1-5 position.
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: lightspeed5 on January 25, 2014, 11:06:09 AM
This draft is loaded, and the worst team never wins the lottery anyways. We just need to position ourselves in the top 1-5 position.
Agreed.
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: oldutican on January 25, 2014, 11:41:26 AM
Sorry to rain on your parade, but it's not a sure thing all these kids come out, especially Embiid and Parker.
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: clover on January 25, 2014, 12:23:25 PM
It would also give the C's a 91.2% chance at a top 6 pick. That's one of: Embiid, Parker, Wiggins, Randle, Exum or Smart.

Embiid, Parker or Exum (or Vonleh) for me, please.
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: hpantazo on January 25, 2014, 12:26:10 PM
Sorry to rain on your parade, but it's not a sure thing all these kids come out, especially Embiid and Parker.

articles suggesting that top college players won't enter the draft come out every season, yet those players still enter the draft. The financial windfall of being selected top 10 in the draft vs the risk of being injured next season or having a poor followup season and dropping in the next draft is too much to pass up. Most people are not at all worried about it, the chance that either of them stay is about 5% imo.
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: footey on January 25, 2014, 12:41:42 PM
My biggest worry is that the Lakers keep tanking, and end up with the No. 1 pick.  That would just suck.
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Boston Garden Leprechaun on January 25, 2014, 12:58:23 PM
My biggest worry is that the Lakers keep tanking, and end up with the No. 1 pick.  That would just suck.

it is what it is. Yes actually with our record we should be at the bottom of the barrel right now. maybe other teams catch fire and help us.
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: PhoSita on January 25, 2014, 01:14:44 PM
My biggest worry is that the Lakers keep tanking, and end up with the No. 1 pick.  That would just suck.


The Lakers are probably going to end up with a pretty good player in this year's draft.  Might as well just get used to the idea.
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Quetzalcoatl on January 25, 2014, 02:28:45 PM
I've seen reports that the Lakers and New Orleans are both totally fixated on Saric.  The Lakers' forums are the only ones where fans are more positive than negative on him.

http://forums.lakersground.net/viewtopic.php?t=165995

I think he will be good.  Anyways, it's really unlikely that the Lakers get the 1st pick. 
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: chambers on January 25, 2014, 02:44:27 PM
The draft isn't over after the first pick.

I'm aware.

There are actually at least a handful of players I'd be happy with, particularly in the top 5.

Gordon is just not one of them.   That, and it's still too much of a crap shoot for me to support intentionally going after it.

The entire NBA is a crapshoot too though. Trading for guys like KG and Ray Allen is a crapshoot. You gotta have the assets and pieces ready though when players like that become available and having one of those top 5 picks is a monstrous trade asset if we want a star next to Rondo.
If we can get lucky and get what appear to be the two most 'sure things' in Embiid or Parker we are likely on a rebuild road that looks more like the Thunder than the Hawks or Bucks. If not then we can dangle some pretty juicy bacon on draft night.
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: lightspeed5 on January 25, 2014, 03:39:47 PM
we're going to continue losing.
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: celticmania on January 25, 2014, 05:04:49 PM
Id be happy with a top 4 picks
Jabari Parker
Dante Exum
Joel Embiid
Andrew Wiggins

In that order

At worst our pick will be 5-7
Smart
Randle
Lavine
Vonleh
Young

Are all great prospects too but not as good as the first four
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: SHAQATTACK on January 25, 2014, 06:12:44 PM
DA needs to let the the young guy play ...a lot .....a whole lot .....as in Bass needs to ride the bench......winning if you can with the young ones .....if not that's all the better for drafting.

I think Danny needs to let KO play 35 minutes a game regardless of the outcome........
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Celtics18 on January 25, 2014, 06:23:19 PM
DA needs to let the the young guy play ...a lot .....a whole lot .....as in Bass needs to ride the bench......winning if you can with the young ones .....if not that's all the better for drafting.

I think Danny needs to let KO play 35 minutes a game regardless of the outcome........

I think coach Stevens gets to make his own decisions as to the rotations and minute allocations. 
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: clover on January 25, 2014, 06:31:44 PM
DA needs to let the the young guy play ...a lot .....a whole lot .....as in Bass needs to ride the bench......winning if you can with the young ones .....if not that's all the better for drafting.

I think Danny needs to let KO play 35 minutes a game regardless of the outcome........

I think coach Stevens gets to make his own decisions as to the rotations and minute allocations.

I think Stevens is helping the cause by playing the players they need to showcase right now.

Danny will likely move Bass and someone else soon enough and KO will probably be starting fairly soon.
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: droopdog7 on January 25, 2014, 07:53:14 PM
The two guys I don't want are randle and Gordon.  Both tweeners that won't be all that in the nba.  So I am hoping we can get top five.
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: freshinthehouse on January 25, 2014, 08:08:54 PM
I can see that argument for Gordon but Randle looks plenty big for a PF in the NBA.  I guess we'll find out for sure during the pre-draft camp measurements but he looks like he's a legit 6'9" in shoes.
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: LilRip on January 25, 2014, 09:44:53 PM
what're the odds of us landing any one of the top 3 picks if we have the 5th worst record in the league? how about the 4th worst? or 3rd worst?

No one is "catching" the Bucks or the Magic in terms of lottery odds, but it's feasible that Philly and/or Utah begins to win more.
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Celtics18 on January 25, 2014, 09:54:17 PM
what're the odds of us landing any one of the top 3 picks if we have the 5th worst record in the league? how about the 4th worst? or 3rd worst?

No one is "catching" the Bucks or the Magic in terms of lottery odds, but it's feasible that Philly and/or Utah begins to win more.

Fifth worst=29.2% chance at a top three pick.

Fourth worst=37.8%.

Third worst=46.9%.
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: freshinthehouse on January 25, 2014, 11:46:18 PM
TP+ for the info Celtics18.  Man oh man would I love to land in the top 3 in this draft.
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: indeedproceed on January 25, 2014, 11:59:13 PM
I've seen reports that the Lakers and New Orleans are both totally fixated on Saric.  The Lakers' forums are the only ones where fans are more positive than negative on him.

http://forums.lakersground.net/viewtopic.php?t=165995

I think he will be good.  Anyways, it's really unlikely that the Lakers get the 1st pick.

I'm optimistic about Saric only because of how hard DraftExpress has been praising him. Was bummed when he dropped out of the draft last summer , was sure we we're takin him or the Greek Freak.
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: indeedproceed on January 26, 2014, 12:13:24 AM
we're going to continue losing.

Lol. Yes, yes this is true.
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Yoki_IsTheName on January 26, 2014, 12:19:42 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMRrNY0pxfM (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMRrNY0pxfM)

I'd be fine with the number 2 or 3 to be quite honest.
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Beat LA on January 26, 2014, 12:43:36 AM
My biggest worry is that the Lakers keep tanking, and end up with the No. 1 pick.  That would just suck.

Which is precisely why it's likely that they somehow end up in the top 3.  That will be Stern's final gift to LA.  The first few times I played the lottery machine, we were at 5, 7, and 8, while the Lakers somehow kept getting in the top 3 at 1 and 2 (although we just got the 1st after I tried it again.  Typical  ::)  We have to be realistic, though.  The most likely spot we get is #5 - tantalizingly close, but oh so far away, like in 2007.  Who do we take there?  Any suggestions?  Probably just bpa, but I was thinking more along the lines of specific players.  I'm behind in my draft research this year  ::)
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: lon3lytoaster on January 26, 2014, 12:53:54 AM
My biggest worry is that the Lakers keep tanking, and end up with the No. 1 pick.  That would just suck.

Which is precisely why it's likely that they somehow end up in the top 3.  That will be Stern's final gift to LA.  The first few times I played the lottery machine, we were at 5, 7, and 8, while the Lakers somehow kept getting in the top 3 at 1 and 2 (although we just got the 1st after I tried it again.  Typical  ::)  We have to be realistic, though.  The most likely spot we get is #5 - tantalizingly close, but oh so far away, like in 2007.  Who do we take there?  Any suggestions?  Probably just bpa, but I was thinking more along the lines of specific players.  I'm behind in my draft research this year  ::)

I don't think Stern controls ESPN's mock lottery...

And he'll be out in February, regardless. Way before the real lottery. The Celtics AND Lakers getting the top two picks would be huge for the NBA, though. People still love them some Celtics/Lakers. Make it happen, Silver!
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: obnoxiousmime on January 26, 2014, 04:39:00 AM
Well, Kobe is still hell-bent on returning this season so we'll see regarding the Lakers. They are really atrocious right now...
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: SHAQATTACK on January 26, 2014, 08:43:39 AM
We need to out tank LA.

I think we have the personnel to get her done  :)


We are built to flop.
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Boston Garden Leprechaun on January 26, 2014, 09:50:31 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMRrNY0pxfM (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMRrNY0pxfM)

I'd be fine with the number 2 or 3 to be quite honest.

 :D
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Boston Garden Leprechaun on January 26, 2014, 09:57:59 AM
We need to out tank LA.

I think we have the personnel to get her done  :)


We are built to flop.

no reason the lakers, sixers, or jazz finish worse than us. The only team that should finish worse than us is the bucks.
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: LilRip on January 26, 2014, 10:51:25 AM
what're the odds of us landing any one of the top 3 picks if we have the 5th worst record in the league? how about the 4th worst? or 3rd worst?

No one is "catching" the Bucks or the Magic in terms of lottery odds, but it's feasible that Philly and/or Utah begins to win more.

Fifth worst=29.2% chance at a top three pick.

Fourth worst=37.8%.

Third worst=46.9%.

thanks. TP for this.

TBH, with how this draft class is shaping up, it might not be too important as to who gets the 1st overall pick, but more of who lands in the top 3. Either Embiid, Wiggins or Parker will be there.

3rd worst record in the league lands us almost a 50% chance? sounds like pretty good odds. With the current team structure plus more 'destructive' trades potentially happening in the coming weeks, it's not a longshot.
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Boris Badenov on January 26, 2014, 11:06:05 AM
if you use the ESPN mock draft generator, we win a good amount of times. They think we pick jabari with the first pick.
Let me guess, about once every ten times :P
MATH'D!!!
Let me give you one more while we're at it: even if we end up with the worst record in the league, we're more likely to get the fourth pick rather than the first pick.

Hmmm, that doesn't fit my half-baked intuitions about probability, so that sounds an awful lot like a conspiracy to me.  If we won a practice draw on top of that I'm pretty sure we could sue.

Yeah that doesn't sound right.  I'm sure there is a nifty Venn diagram somewhere that could solve this.

It's right.

Our percentage chances of 1/2/3/4 with the worst record would be 25%/22%/18%/36% .

The last number is highest because of the restriction that we must have a top 4 pick. So instead of having successively declining chances  at 4,5,6...etc. you can think of the 4th slot as the total of "what's left over after the first three."
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: KGs Knee on January 26, 2014, 11:30:54 AM
if you use the ESPN mock draft generator, we win a good amount of times. They think we pick jabari with the first pick.
Let me guess, about once every ten times :P
MATH'D!!!
Let me give you one more while we're at it: even if we end up with the worst record in the league, we're more likely to get the fourth pick rather than the first pick.

Hmmm, that doesn't fit my half-baked intuitions about probability, so that sounds an awful lot like a conspiracy to me.  If we won a practice draw on top of that I'm pretty sure we could sue.

Yeah that doesn't sound right.  I'm sure there is a nifty Venn diagram somewhere that could solve this.

It's right.

Our percentage chances of 1/2/3/4 with the worst record would be 25%/22%/18%/36% .

The last number is highest because of the restriction that we must have a top 4 pick. So instead of having successively declining chances  at 4,5,6...etc. you can think of the 4th slot as the total of "what's left over after the first three."

Ahh...I see

The NBA....where stupid happens
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: lightspeed5 on January 26, 2014, 12:10:49 PM
http://espn.go.com/nba/lottery2014/mockdraft

11.9% chance of winning.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: manl_lui on January 26, 2014, 12:15:08 PM
http://espn.go.com/nba/lottery2014/mockdraft

11.9% chance of winning.

I played it like 10 times - 5/10 has us at 3 picking Parker, 3/10 has us at 2 - picking Parker and 2/10 has us at 1 picking Parker...

You know what that means  ::)
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: letsgoblue86 on January 26, 2014, 12:18:40 PM
Im hoping for the second pick, assuming the Big Three all leave (Embiid, Wiggins, Parker). We would have an easier decision to make than the number 1.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: lightspeed5 on January 26, 2014, 12:20:48 PM
Im hoping for the second pick, assuming the Big Three all leave (Embiid, Wiggins, Parker). We would have an easier decision to make than the number 1.
after drafting rondo, i trust danny's ability to judge talent
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: hpantazo on January 26, 2014, 12:24:03 PM
http://espn.go.com/nba/lottery2014/mockdraft

11.9% chance of winning.

I played it like 10 times - 5/10 has us at 3 picking Parker, 3/10 has us at 2 - picking Parker and 2/10 has us at 1 picking Parker...

You know what that means  ::)

almost every time I ran it, the celtics were picking Exum at 5.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: lightspeed5 on January 26, 2014, 12:29:26 PM
http://espn.go.com/nba/lottery2014/mockdraft

11.9% chance of winning.

I played it like 10 times - 5/10 has us at 3 picking Parker, 3/10 has us at 2 - picking Parker and 2/10 has us at 1 picking Parker...

You know what that means  ::)

almost every time I ran it, the celtics were picking Exum at 5.
it was either parker or exum for me.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Boston Garden Leprechaun on January 26, 2014, 12:30:49 PM
Im hoping for the second pick, assuming the Big Three all leave (Embiid, Wiggins, Parker). We would have an easier decision to make than the number 1.

 ;D
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Boston Garden Leprechaun on January 26, 2014, 12:32:52 PM
looks like our odds are getting better and better.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: GreenEnvy on January 26, 2014, 01:16:27 PM
Embiid
Wiggins
Parker
Exum
Randle

That's my preference.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: lightspeed5 on January 26, 2014, 01:33:28 PM
getting excited about the prospects with our chances increasing.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: rondohondo on January 26, 2014, 01:43:18 PM
well Utah has passed us, we are only 1 win in front of Philly for the 3rd best odds , only 2 and a half in front of Orlando for 2nd best odds . I think Orlando will start winning more once Vucevic comes back .

Things are looking good for the C's!
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: lon3lytoaster on January 26, 2014, 02:52:27 PM
Going to be very happy any which way we land one of Embiid/Parker/Wiggins or Exum. Think they're all going to be superstars, with Embiid potentially developing into a legitimate franchise changer.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: JBcat on January 26, 2014, 03:33:23 PM
Going to be very happy any which way we land one of Embiid/Parker/Wiggins or Exum. Think they're all going to be superstars, with Embiid potentially developing into a legitimate franchise changer.

It's going to be interesting to see how good Embiid becomes.  He is a very good athlete but the comparisons to Olajuwon could be a bit much.  I'd heard an announcer say a better comparison is Andrew Bynum pre injury.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Smokeeye123 on January 26, 2014, 04:07:59 PM
Good tank game between the Lakers and Knicks today. Whoever wins is a win for the Celtics. (although I hope it's the Lakers who win)
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: bleedGREENdon on January 26, 2014, 04:18:07 PM
Wow I didn't know the 6ers have two first round picks this year. Next year the 6ers definitely can make the playoffs, and we'd have three 1sts. I hope next years draft is good as we'll !!!
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: bleedGREENdon on January 26, 2014, 04:20:39 PM
My spins has us taking Parker inside the top 3 every time and exum at 5 every time.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: chambers on January 26, 2014, 05:25:07 PM
I'm getting the same as others. Exum at 5 and Jabari or Embiid in the top 3.

Does who we take in this mock lottery spin have any influence from Chad Ford?
ie: Does Ford use his 'insider information' or opinion on who Danny likes?

Or does it just take the BPA?
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Jeff on January 26, 2014, 05:49:56 PM
I think the more relevant number is what % chance do we have of landing a top 3 pick?  also, anything in the top 5 is probably a huge win for us this summer
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: chambers on January 26, 2014, 06:06:41 PM
I think the more relevant number is what % chance do we have of landing a top 3 pick?  also, anything in the top 5 is probably a huge win for us this summer

Well if we finished 4th we'll roughly get slightly less than a 40% chance at a top 3 pick. 37% or 39% off the top of my head?
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: lon3lytoaster on January 26, 2014, 06:58:07 PM
Going to be very happy any which way we land one of Embiid/Parker/Wiggins or Exum. Think they're all going to be superstars, with Embiid potentially developing into a legitimate franchise changer.

It's going to be interesting to see how good Embiid becomes.  He is a very good athlete but the comparisons to Olajuwon could be a bit much.  I'd heard an announcer say a better comparison is Andrew Bynum pre injury.

I think he projects a bit better than Bynum, myself. And he doesn't have that attitude stuck to him.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: bucknersrevenge on January 26, 2014, 08:47:22 PM
Going to be very happy any which way we land one of Embiid/Parker/Wiggins or Exum. Think they're all going to be superstars, with Embiid potentially developing into a legitimate franchise changer.

See, people keep putting Exum in that category and I'm not sure why. Okay, he played a nice game at the Nike Hoop Summit and the U19 Tournament. Big deal. Would've liked to see this kid play a season against college talent. I do hear great things about the kid's acumen for the game and his overall makeup. I question whether he has the scoring instincts to be a full-time 2guard which is likely his position in the pros. Plus he has to work on his shot. Honestly I think I'm all set with adding another guard that has to work on his shot. Can someone tell me why we should rate Exum so high? Serious question.

FWIW, I think if Ainge doesn't end up with a top 3 pick he may try to move the pick.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Boston Garden Leprechaun on January 26, 2014, 09:33:35 PM
well Utah has passed us, we are only 1 win in front of Philly for the 3rd best odds , only 2 and a half in front of Orlando for 2nd best odds . I think Orlando will start winning more once Vucevic comes back .

Things are looking good for the C's!

orlando and the sixers should pass us. I can easily see us with the second to worst record in the league.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: gar on January 26, 2014, 10:10:50 PM
Up from 8.8% in just one week. Picks 1-6 are strong this year. Aaron Gordon is no slouch. Neither is the kid from down under. So we are good to go. Question is who do you build around in the meantime. Green and Rondo are not reliable scorers. If Bradley is our mainstay we are in real trouble. He is the opposite of clutch.

Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Boston Garden Leprechaun on January 26, 2014, 10:41:42 PM
Up from 8.8% in just one week. Picks 1-6 are strong this year. Aaron Gordon is no slouch. Neither is the kid from down under. So we are good to go. Question is who do you build around in the meantime. Green and Rondo are not reliable scorers. If Bradley is our mainstay we are in real trouble. He is the opposite of clutch.

AB is  a poor man's melo. volume shooter.  ;)
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Onslaught on January 26, 2014, 11:12:12 PM
Up from 8.8% in just one week. Picks 1-6 are strong this year. Aaron Gordon is no slouch. Neither is the kid from down under. So we are good to go. Question is who do you build around in the meantime. Green and Rondo are not reliable scorers. If Bradley is our mainstay we are in real trouble. He is the opposite of clutch.

AB is  a poor man's melo. volume shooter.  ;)
Hey, no need to be insulting. AB knows how to play D.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: chambers on January 27, 2014, 02:19:33 AM
Going to be very happy any which way we land one of Embiid/Parker/Wiggins or Exum. Think they're all going to be superstars, with Embiid potentially developing into a legitimate franchise changer.

See, people keep putting Exum in that category and I'm not sure why. Okay, he played a nice game at the Nike Hoop Summit and the U19 Tournament. Big deal. Would've liked to see this kid play a season against college talent. I do hear great things about the kid's acumen for the game and his overall makeup. I question whether he has the scoring instincts to be a full-time 2guard which is likely his position in the pros. Plus he has to work on his shot. Honestly I think I'm all set with adding another guard that has to work on his shot. Can someone tell me why we should rate Exum so high? Serious question.

FWIW, I think if Ainge doesn't end up with a top 3 pick he may try to move the pick.

My wife's family lives in Hopkinton, MA but we live in Australia. I've seen Exum play a few times.

He's 6 foot 6 and growing, he's still a baby physically like Giannis on the Bucks.
He's got a nice stroke and it will improve because of his work ethic.
A way to summarize him and why he's so good is the combination of his dribble penetration skills and athleticism. His length and springs make him an incredible on and off ball defender and he's got the size of Joe Johnson with the spring of Russell Westbrook- he literally burns the entire court with players lagging behind.
When he finishes on the break it's almost guaranteed that he'll end up on the floor under the backboard padding to stop his momentum.
Think of Westbrook in the open court. Think of Derrick Rose's aggression combined with a point guard's IQ. He's almost relentless at trying to pick an opening and attack the basket and force the defense to lose cognition.

He takes contact mid air and finishes and his shooting stroke is mechanically nice. I'm not sure if he'll play a shooting guard or a point guard but he has size and length and agility. His Wingspan is almost 6 feet 10.

He's basically a shooting guard version of Nicola Batum, except he attacks the basket more and is a game changer on both ends. The kind of player you can put on either the PG or SG, and if he puts on enough muscle even the SF.
He's got some Tony Parker-esque moves in the key where he breaks down a defender and plants his feet with a single step, then pivots with head fakes to score easily. The Australian game is very European but his father played for North Carolina so he's had that American influence on his game since he was in a diaper.

I mean he's got EVERYTHING going for him. Athleticism, size, finishes under contact, good shooting mechanics, length, agility AND he loves to play defense. Combine all of these with his IQ and you're looking at a mix between Westbrooks athleticism and Hardens IQ. He just needs to turn his shooting mechanics into a 40% three shooter which I would say will be pretty easy for him with his work ethic.
I'd pick him over Wiggins and after Parker of all the wings. Type in 'Exum inside out dribble' or look up some of his crossovers.
Kyrie Irving used to play here as a junior and he is better than Kyrie was at his age.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: guava_wrench on January 27, 2014, 02:30:23 AM
Up from 8.8% in just one week. Picks 1-6 are strong this year. Aaron Gordon is no slouch. Neither is the kid from down under. So we are good to go. Question is who do you build around in the meantime. Green and Rondo are not reliable scorers. If Bradley is our mainstay we are in real trouble. He is the opposite of clutch.

AB is  a poor man's melo. volume shooter.  ;)
Nonsense. AB has been in the league a few years already and has established otherwise when on a decent team.

Are you really going to define him by a few month on a horrible team? Someone had to shoot. Sully is doing the same thing. Green doesn't, and we end up exasperated when Green isn't more aggressive.

AB was forced into a role that he shouldn't be in because he is on a bad team. Surround him with a decent team and he will play a more appropriate role as he did in the past.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: AidaCelt on January 27, 2014, 04:06:23 AM
Firstly, I live in Melbourne, Australia and have seen an extremely small sample size of Exum. Yes, he is playing against inferior opposition and I would love to see him against college talent. The scouting reports and video that most have seen though are against the best talent in the world against similar age opposition. Gives a reasonable indicator of where he sits overall. My biggest worry is if he isn't able to build on his skinny frame. On the plus side, he has lateral quickness, great first step and full court speed, longs arms... all the key indicators that we will make it at the next level.

I remember watching his old man play in the NBL (National Basketball League) years ago and he had the hops and could ball. Glad he stuck to live permanently in Australia.

Secondly, from my limited viewings (watch a few college games a week and read plenty of reports), Embiid seems to have the highest upside/ risk factor and then you have Parker and Wiggins. I wouldn't put Exum too far behind them.

The players I'm a little uncertain of at this stage are Randle (uses strength at college level which doesn't always translate, and doesn't have the size to play PF in NBA) and Smart (I don't really know what it is... I just don't see his skills ever being at the elite level in the NBA).
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: LarBrd33 on January 27, 2014, 04:43:50 AM
I think the more relevant number is what % chance do we have of landing a top 3 pick?  also, anything in the top 5 is probably a huge win for us this summer
The 11% thing is misleading.

If the season ended today we'd have:

12% chance at #1
13% chance at #2
13% chance at #3
9% chance at #4
35% chance at #5
16% chance at #6

So basically a 38% chance of getting into the Top 3.  Statistically, it's more likely our pick ends up in the Top 3 than it ends up at #5.   ;)

MOre importantly... 98% chance at a Top 6 pick in a draft where the Top 6 include Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Joel Embiid, Dante Exum, Marcus Smart and Julius Randle.

Our pick has BY FAR the most trade value of any asset on this team... and that definitely includes Rondo.  If keep on this pace, that pick is pure gold. 
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: clover on January 27, 2014, 07:14:59 AM
Firstly, I live in Melbourne, Australia and have seen an extremely small sample size of Exum. Yes, he is playing against inferior opposition and I would love to see him against college talent. The scouting reports and video that most have seen though are against the best talent in the world against similar age opposition. Gives a reasonable indicator of where he sits overall. My biggest worry is if he isn't able to build on his skinny frame. On the plus side, he has lateral quickness, great first step and full court speed, longs arms... all the key indicators that we will make it at the next level.

I remember watching his old man play in the NBL (National Basketball League) years ago and he had the hops and could ball. Glad he stuck to live permanently in Australia.

Secondly, from my limited viewings (watch a few college games a week and read plenty of reports), Embiid seems to have the highest upside/ risk factor and then you have Parker and Wiggins. I wouldn't put Exum too far behind them.

The players I'm a little uncertain of at this stage are Randle (uses strength at college level which doesn't always translate, and doesn't have the size to play PF in NBA) and Smart (I don't really know what it is... I just don't see his skills ever being at the elite level in the NBA).

I agree with you on your rankings and concerns with those top prospects. Is Exum's frame really that narrow? Hard to tell just from pics, but he looks pretty good for an 18yo in what I could find:

https://www.google.com/search?q=dante+exum+photo&espv=210&es_sm=122&tbm=isch&source=iu&imgil=Z5sqynwBTA58XM%253A%253Bhttps%253A%252F%252Fencrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com%252Fimages%253Fq%253Dtbn%253AANd9GcR-P2D0WhLbirjp0N9IDepCV5T1iqfUDcD4bo6Ds-Fx_nDaTDXq%253B215%253B323%253BjC7YzYDwLQj4GM%253Bhttp%25253A%25252F%25252Fprague2013.fiba.com%25252Fpages%25252Feng%25252Ffe%25252F13%25252Ffu19m%25252Fplayer%25252Fp%25252Feid%25252F9616%25252Fpid%25252F88598%25252Frid%25252F%25252Fsid%25252F9616%25252Ftid%25252F239%25252Fprofile.html&sa=X&ei=3UzmUvD7D-jLsQSSxYHoDw&ved=0CCsQ9QEwAQ&biw=1278&bih=683#facrc=_&imgdii=_&imgrc=Z5sqynwBTA58XM%253A%3BjC7YzYDwLQj4GM%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.fiba.com%252Fimages%252Fweb%252FEvents%252F13%252FFU19M%252Fheadshots%252FAUS%252F_215%252FSmall_7.DanteEXUM_Australia_.JPG%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fprague2013.fiba.com%252Fpages%252Feng%252Ffe%252F13%252Ffu19m%252Fplayer%252Fp%252Feid%252F9616%252Fpid%252F88598%252Frid%252F%252Fsid%252F9616%252Ftid%252F239%252Fprofile.html%3B215%3B323
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: lightspeed5 on January 27, 2014, 07:03:59 PM
I think the more relevant number is what % chance do we have of landing a top 3 pick?  also, anything in the top 5 is probably a huge win for us this summer
The 11% thing is misleading.

If the season ended today we'd have:

12% chance at #1
13% chance at #2
13% chance at #3
9% chance at #4
35% chance at #5
16% chance at #6

So basically a 38% chance of getting into the Top 3.  Statistically, it's more likely our pick ends up in the Top 3 than it ends up at #5.   ;)

MOre importantly... 98% chance at a Top 6 pick in a draft where the Top 6 include Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Joel Embiid, Dante Exum, Marcus Smart and Julius Randle.

Our pick has BY FAR the most trade value of any asset on this team... and that definitely includes Rondo.  If keep on this pace, that pick is pure gold.
we're not trading that pick, that would be foolish. we got brad stevens to develop young college talent, not to trade draft picks for overpriced guys already on contract.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Yoki_IsTheName on January 27, 2014, 07:25:20 PM
Am I the only one who feel "dirty" because I'm starting to be a little bit optimistic the more we lose.

I want to apologize to LarBrd33. I'm slowly, reluctantly getting what you meant from the start of the season.

I'm so sorry. But it still feels... wrong.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: lightspeed5 on January 27, 2014, 07:37:37 PM
Am I the only one who feel "dirty" because I'm starting to be a little bit optimistic the more we lose.

I want to apologize to LarBrd33. I'm slowly, reluctantly getting what you meant from the start of the season.

I'm so sorry. But it still feels... wrong.
basketball is a game at the end of the day. games require strategy. this is a strategy made by the great danny ainge. we did it in 2007 to get in the lotto. we're doing it again.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: AidaCelt on January 27, 2014, 08:41:48 PM
Clover, yes Dante is skinny. But he's only 18. He's not that different to most 18 year olds. His dad (Cecil) wasn't a big guy though and he seems to have a frame that he'll need to work extremely hard to pack on the muscle. If he can do that though, he could be anything
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Quetzalcoatl on January 27, 2014, 09:03:57 PM
I know Embiid is the best player, but I am almost rooting for us to get a worse pick so we draft Exum.  He will be super entertaining at the very least and it's a more plausible thing to root for, anyway.

There are lots of SGs with good size later in the draft though that are interesting. I like Garry Harris (6'4"), TJ Warren (6'7"), and Bogdan Bogdanovich (6'5).  I randomly really like Bogdan2, I think he will surprise people after a year or two. 

I am starting to think we should trade down our ATL/Nets pick for an even later first rounder + a second rounder, since this really is such a deep draft and we're starting multiple d-leaguers.  I would rather have two Euro guys that we can stash or play depending on how far along they are than someone undersized like Montrezel Harrell or Adreian Payne (who is also old)
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: lightspeed5 on January 27, 2014, 09:10:32 PM
i dont know if the draft is deep, starting to think its more "top heavy" than deep.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: fitzhickey on January 27, 2014, 09:17:50 PM
Dante has the work ethic to gain muscle, and when he does he will be scary.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: slamtheking on January 27, 2014, 09:24:05 PM
i dont know if the draft is deep, starting to think its more "top heavy" than deep.
fortunately our own pick will be in the 'heavy' section.  should still be able to get a good prospect with that second pick too
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: chambers on January 27, 2014, 10:26:19 PM
I think the more relevant number is what % chance do we have of landing a top 3 pick?  also, anything in the top 5 is probably a huge win for us this summer
The 11% thing is misleading.

If the season ended today we'd have:

12% chance at #1
13% chance at #2
13% chance at #3
9% chance at #4
35% chance at #5
16% chance at #6

So basically a 38% chance of getting into the Top 3.  Statistically, it's more likely our pick ends up in the Top 3 than it ends up at #5.   ;)

MOre importantly... 98% chance at a Top 6 pick in a draft where the Top 6 include Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Joel Embiid, Dante Exum, Marcus Smart and Julius Randle.

Our pick has BY FAR the most trade value of any asset on this team... and that definitely includes Rondo.  If keep on this pace, that pick is pure gold.
we're not trading that pick, that would be foolish. we got brad stevens to develop young college talent, not to trade draft picks for overpriced guys already on contract.

Danny will trade that pick in a heartbeat if the right player comes along.
We have Brad Stephens because he's a very smart coach and should adapt to the NBA very well. He should be able to coach a great team whilst developing assets...something that wasn't Docs forte.
If we keep Rondo it's most likely we do move that pick for another co star because at age 27-28 he's going to be waiting a while till that pick turns into a superstar.

He'll ultimately come to a crossroads-perhaps before this draft where he chooses one path or the other.
Something tells me he's not interested in developing more players and he wants to win now by using all the assets he's collected rather than hope these picks turn into studs.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: lightspeed5 on January 27, 2014, 10:40:17 PM
I think the more relevant number is what % chance do we have of landing a top 3 pick?  also, anything in the top 5 is probably a huge win for us this summer
The 11% thing is misleading.

If the season ended today we'd have:

12% chance at #1
13% chance at #2
13% chance at #3
9% chance at #4
35% chance at #5
16% chance at #6

So basically a 38% chance of getting into the Top 3.  Statistically, it's more likely our pick ends up in the Top 3 than it ends up at #5.   ;)

MOre importantly... 98% chance at a Top 6 pick in a draft where the Top 6 include Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Joel Embiid, Dante Exum, Marcus Smart and Julius Randle.

Our pick has BY FAR the most trade value of any asset on this team... and that definitely includes Rondo.  If keep on this pace, that pick is pure gold.
we're not trading that pick, that would be foolish. we got brad stevens to develop young college talent, not to trade draft picks for overpriced guys already on contract.

Danny will trade that pick in a heartbeat if the right player comes along.
We have Brad Stephens because he's a very smart coach and should adapt to the NBA very well. He should be able to coach a great team whilst developing assets...something that wasn't Docs forte.
If we keep Rondo it's most likely we do move that pick for another co star because at age 27-28 he's going to be waiting a while till that pick turns into a superstar.

He'll ultimately come to a crossroads-perhaps before this draft where he chooses one path or the other.
Something tells me he's not interested in developing more players and he wants to win now by using all the assets he's collected rather than hope these picks turn into studs.
unless we can get someone like 2007 ray allen with that pick (a star), i wouldnt trade it.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Jailan34 on January 27, 2014, 10:42:15 PM
I think the more relevant number is what % chance do we have of landing a top 3 pick?  also, anything in the top 5 is probably a huge win for us this summer
The 11% thing is misleading.

If the season ended today we'd have:

12% chance at #1
13% chance at #2
13% chance at #3
9% chance at #4
35% chance at #5
16% chance at #6

So basically a 38% chance of getting into the Top 3.  Statistically, it's more likely our pick ends up in the Top 3 than it ends up at #5.   ;)

MOre importantly... 98% chance at a Top 6 pick in a draft where the Top 6 include Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Joel Embiid, Dante Exum, Marcus Smart and Julius Randle.

Our pick has BY FAR the most trade value of any asset on this team... and that definitely includes Rondo.  If keep on this pace, that pick is pure gold.
we're not trading that pick, that would be foolish. we got brad stevens to develop young college talent, not to trade draft picks for overpriced guys already on contract.

Danny will trade that pick in a heartbeat if the right player comes along.
We have Brad Stephens because he's a very smart coach and should adapt to the NBA very well. He should be able to coach a great team whilst developing assets...something that wasn't Docs forte.
If we keep Rondo it's most likely we do move that pick for another co star because at age 27-28 he's going to be waiting a while till that pick turns into a superstar.

He'll ultimately come to a crossroads-perhaps before this draft where he chooses one path or the other.
Something tells me he's not interested in developing more players and he wants to win now by using all the assets he's collected rather than hope these picks turn into studs.


Why make a trade to be the third best team in the east during LeBrons prime?
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: lightspeed5 on January 27, 2014, 10:56:16 PM
I think the more relevant number is what % chance do we have of landing a top 3 pick?  also, anything in the top 5 is probably a huge win for us this summer
The 11% thing is misleading.

If the season ended today we'd have:

12% chance at #1
13% chance at #2
13% chance at #3
9% chance at #4
35% chance at #5
16% chance at #6

So basically a 38% chance of getting into the Top 3.  Statistically, it's more likely our pick ends up in the Top 3 than it ends up at #5.   ;)

MOre importantly... 98% chance at a Top 6 pick in a draft where the Top 6 include Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Joel Embiid, Dante Exum, Marcus Smart and Julius Randle.

Our pick has BY FAR the most trade value of any asset on this team... and that definitely includes Rondo.  If keep on this pace, that pick is pure gold.
we're not trading that pick, that would be foolish. we got brad stevens to develop young college talent, not to trade draft picks for overpriced guys already on contract.

Danny will trade that pick in a heartbeat if the right player comes along.
We have Brad Stephens because he's a very smart coach and should adapt to the NBA very well. He should be able to coach a great team whilst developing assets...something that wasn't Docs forte.
If we keep Rondo it's most likely we do move that pick for another co star because at age 27-28 he's going to be waiting a while till that pick turns into a superstar.

He'll ultimately come to a crossroads-perhaps before this draft where he chooses one path or the other.
Something tells me he's not interested in developing more players and he wants to win now by using all the assets he's collected rather than hope these picks turn into studs.


Why make a trade to be the third best team in the east during LeBrons prime?
exactly. danny blew up the team for a reason, to wait for lebrons prime to pass and develop talent in the meantime.
Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Beat LA on January 28, 2014, 12:09:46 AM
My biggest worry is that the Lakers keep tanking, and end up with the No. 1 pick.  That would just suck.

Which is precisely why it's likely that they somehow end up in the top 3.  That will be Stern's final gift to LA.  The first few times I played the lottery machine, we were at 5, 7, and 8, while the Lakers somehow kept getting in the top 3 at 1 and 2 (although we just got the 1st after I tried it again.  Typical  ::)  We have to be realistic, though.  The most likely spot we get is #5 - tantalizingly close, but oh so far away, like in 2007.  Who do we take there?  Any suggestions?  Probably just bpa, but I was thinking more along the lines of specific players.  I'm behind in my draft research this year  ::)

I don't think Stern controls ESPN's mock lottery...

And he'll be out in February, regardless. Way before the real lottery. The Celtics AND Lakers getting the top two picks would be huge for the NBA, though. People still love them some Celtics/Lakers. Make it happen, Silver!

I know he doesn't control that lotto machine haha.  I was talking about the real one.  I'm sure that Stern could influence the outcome, maybe by 'suggesting' such a notion on his way out.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: D.o.s. on January 28, 2014, 12:27:13 AM
He'll probably have a better chance of influencing it now, since he won't be the commish by the time the draft lottery rolls around.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: chambers on January 28, 2014, 01:23:55 AM
I think the more relevant number is what % chance do we have of landing a top 3 pick?  also, anything in the top 5 is probably a huge win for us this summer
The 11% thing is misleading.

If the season ended today we'd have:

12% chance at #1
13% chance at #2
13% chance at #3
9% chance at #4
35% chance at #5
16% chance at #6

So basically a 38% chance of getting into the Top 3.  Statistically, it's more likely our pick ends up in the Top 3 than it ends up at #5.   ;)

MOre importantly... 98% chance at a Top 6 pick in a draft where the Top 6 include Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Joel Embiid, Dante Exum, Marcus Smart and Julius Randle.

Our pick has BY FAR the most trade value of any asset on this team... and that definitely includes Rondo.  If keep on this pace, that pick is pure gold.
we're not trading that pick, that would be foolish. we got brad stevens to develop young college talent, not to trade draft picks for overpriced guys already on contract.

Danny will trade that pick in a heartbeat if the right player comes along.
We have Brad Stephens because he's a very smart coach and should adapt to the NBA very well. He should be able to coach a great team whilst developing assets...something that wasn't Docs forte.
If we keep Rondo it's most likely we do move that pick for another co star because at age 27-28 he's going to be waiting a while till that pick turns into a superstar.

He'll ultimately come to a crossroads-perhaps before this draft where he chooses one path or the other.
Something tells me he's not interested in developing more players and he wants to win now by using all the assets he's collected rather than hope these picks turn into studs.


Why make a trade to be the third best team in the east during LeBrons prime?
exactly. danny blew up the team for a reason, to wait for lebrons prime to pass and develop talent in the meantime.

He blew the team up because we were too old. We've seen how correctly constructed and coached teams can beat the Heat (Mavs), and other teams with length and 3 point shooting can come very close (Spurs winning 3 games to 2 and blow the title, Indiana this season). Why would we be the third best team? We could be the best team with the right coaching and construction. Danny woll be calling every team in the league this off season asking about every top 20 player.

If we put 2 more stars with Rondo we have a great chance at beating the Heat.
You're basically both saying that it's a guarantee that Danny trades Rondo.
Id actually prefer that he trades Rondo for another top 7 pick on draft night but Danny wont have decided what he'll do yet.. he'll look at every option and decide which one gives us the best shot at a championship.
You act like Danny has never traded a lottery pick before...what did he do with our 5th pick in 2006?
What if we get the 6th pick this season and the Wolves offer us Kevin Love for the pick?
Don't get ahead of yourselves. Im a pro draft guy but I want to see all the options before rushing into a decision that will affect us for the next 10 seasons.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: LarBrd33 on January 28, 2014, 04:24:10 AM
I think the more relevant number is what % chance do we have of landing a top 3 pick?  also, anything in the top 5 is probably a huge win for us this summer
The 11% thing is misleading.

If the season ended today we'd have:

12% chance at #1
13% chance at #2
13% chance at #3
9% chance at #4
35% chance at #5
16% chance at #6

So basically a 38% chance of getting into the Top 3.  Statistically, it's more likely our pick ends up in the Top 3 than it ends up at #5.   ;)

MOre importantly... 98% chance at a Top 6 pick in a draft where the Top 6 include Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Joel Embiid, Dante Exum, Marcus Smart and Julius Randle.

Our pick has BY FAR the most trade value of any asset on this team... and that definitely includes Rondo.  If keep on this pace, that pick is pure gold.
we're not trading that pick, that would be foolish. we got brad stevens to develop young college talent, not to trade draft picks for overpriced guys already on contract.

Danny will trade that pick in a heartbeat if the right player comes along.
We have Brad Stephens because he's a very smart coach and should adapt to the NBA very well. He should be able to coach a great team whilst developing assets...something that wasn't Docs forte.
If we keep Rondo it's most likely we do move that pick for another co star because at age 27-28 he's going to be waiting a while till that pick turns into a superstar.

He'll ultimately come to a crossroads-perhaps before this draft where he chooses one path or the other.
Something tells me he's not interested in developing more players and he wants to win now by using all the assets he's collected rather than hope these picks turn into studs.
unless we can get someone like 2007 ray allen with that pick (a star), i wouldnt trade it.
To clarify what I mean by the pick having "certified gold" trade value.

If the season ended today, you'd have a 98% chance at a Top 6 pick where the Top 6 includes Wiggins, Parker, Randle, Embiid, Smart and Exum.

You'd more than likely keep the pick and build your team around that player.  But if you decided NOT to keep the pick (and instead build around Rondo), that pick would be BY FAR the most valuable asset on the entire team.  If someone like KEvin Love suddenly becomes available, that Top 6 pick gets your foot in the door WITHOUT QUESTION. 

I've always thought the best case scenario for this team was keeping Rondo and landing a Top 6 pick.  Get this... the only reason I was gung-ho about trading Rondo was because I overestimated Rondo's ability.  I thought we'd be at the bottom of the standings when Rondo eventually returned in late January.  Right on cue, Rondo returned in late January and we were at the bottom of the standings.  I then feared that Rondo would play us out of a Top 6 pick.  Crazy, right?  Renowned "hater" LarBrd33 actually expected Rondo to add 10 wins to this team.    I figured we needed to trade him before he killed our shot at certified gold.  The rationalization was that Rondo would net assets. 

Rondo = A
Assets = B
 Top 6 PIck = C

A = B
C > A

C + B >> A

Simple math.  We'd be far better off with assets and a Top 6 pick vs Rajon Rondo.  Rondo's my favorite player on the team... it's just business.

Luckily, through 5 games, Rondo has looked pretty dreadful.  We are 1-5 since he returned.  Maybe we can keep Rondo.  The team seems to stink just as much with him (so far).  Granted, there's still a chance Rondo shakes off the rust and the team starts winning games.  That wouldn't be a good thing, imo.  Playing out of a top 6 pick would be detrimental to our long-term future.

I'd be happy with A + C. 
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: playdream on January 28, 2014, 06:06:06 AM
I think the more relevant number is what % chance do we have of landing a top 3 pick?  also, anything in the top 5 is probably a huge win for us this summer
The 11% thing is misleading.

If the season ended today we'd have:

12% chance at #1
13% chance at #2
13% chance at #3
9% chance at #4
35% chance at #5
16% chance at #6

So basically a 38% chance of getting into the Top 3.  Statistically, it's more likely our pick ends up in the Top 3 than it ends up at #5.   ;)

MOre importantly... 98% chance at a Top 6 pick in a draft where the Top 6 include Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Joel Embiid, Dante Exum, Marcus Smart and Julius Randle.

Our pick has BY FAR the most trade value of any asset on this team... and that definitely includes Rondo.  If keep on this pace, that pick is pure gold.
we're not trading that pick, that would be foolish. we got brad stevens to develop young college talent, not to trade draft picks for overpriced guys already on contract.

Danny will trade that pick in a heartbeat if the right player comes along.
We have Brad Stephens because he's a very smart coach and should adapt to the NBA very well. He should be able to coach a great team whilst developing assets...something that wasn't Docs forte.
If we keep Rondo it's most likely we do move that pick for another co star because at age 27-28 he's going to be waiting a while till that pick turns into a superstar.

He'll ultimately come to a crossroads-perhaps before this draft where he chooses one path or the other.
Something tells me he's not interested in developing more players and he wants to win now by using all the assets he's collected rather than hope these picks turn into studs.
unless we can get someone like 2007 ray allen with that pick (a star), i wouldnt trade it.
To clarify what I mean by the pick having "certified gold" trade value.

If the season ended today, you'd have a 98% chance at a Top 6 pick where the Top 6 includes Wiggins, Parker, Randle, Embiid, Smart and Exum.

You'd more than likely keep the pick and build your team around that player.  But if you decided NOT to keep the pick (and instead build around Rondo), that pick would be BY FAR the most valuable asset on the entire team.  If someone like KEvin Love suddenly becomes available, that Top 6 pick gets your foot in the door WITHOUT QUESTION. 

I've always thought the best case scenario for this team was keeping Rondo and landing a Top 6 pick.  Get this... the only reason I was gung-ho about trading Rondo was because I overestimated Rondo's ability.  I thought we'd be at the bottom of the standings when Rondo eventually returned in late January.  Right on cue, Rondo returned in late January and we were at the bottom of the standings.  I then feared that Rondo would play us out of a Top 6 pick.  Crazy, right?  Renowned "hater" LarBrd33 actually expected Rondo to add 10 wins to this team.    I figured we needed to trade him before he killed our shot at certified gold.  The rationalization was that Rondo would net assets. 

Rondo = A
Assets = B
 Top 6 PIck = C

A = B
C > A

C + B >> A

Simple math.  We'd be far better off with assets and a Top 6 pick vs Rajon Rondo.  Rondo's my favorite player on the team... it's just business.

Luckily, through 5 games, Rondo has looked pretty dreadful.  We are 1-5 since he returned.  Maybe we can keep Rondo.  The team seems to stink just as much with him (so far).  Granted, there's still a chance Rondo shakes off the rust and the team starts winning games.  That wouldn't be a good thing, imo.  Playing out of a top 6 pick would be detrimental to our long-term future.

I'd be happy with A + C.
100% healthy Rondo may add us 5 more wins
Rusty Rondo will help the tank
i think it's all in Danny's plan
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Mr October on January 28, 2014, 10:17:24 AM
Oh yeah, i strongly believe Danny is guiding the tank. He moved Crawford at just the right time. Now the celtics have a rusty rondo, and undersized Pressey each shooting under 30% as they guide this crippled team.

As for the draft, i am getting excited about the guys in the 6-8 range. Aaron Gordon, Noah vonleh and willie cauley-stein look like they could become quality nba players. Meanwhile i am souring on Marcus smart big time. I just dont see any elite skill in him. I dont think he will ever be as good as rajon rondo.

In terms of drafting odds, there is just a big difference between being the 5th worst and say 8 or 9.the 5th worst team has 3-6 times the odds to land in the top 3. I still dont understand why the nba weighted the ping pong scale quite as heavily towards the bottom teams. They reward the tank. Being in the bottom 5 this year is a good place to be.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: manl_lui on January 28, 2014, 10:25:24 AM
Oh yeah, i strongly believe Danny is guiding the tank. He moved Crawford at just the right time. Now the celtics have a rusty rondo, and undersized Pressey each shooting under 30% as they guide this crippled team.

As for the draft, i am getting excited about the guys in the 6-8 range. Aaron Gordon, Noah vonleh and willie cauley-stein look like they could become quality nba players. Meanwhile i am souring on Marcus smart big time. I just dont see any elite skill in him. I dont think he will ever be as good as rajon rondo.

In terms of drafting odds, there is just a big difference between being the 5th worst and say 8 or 9.the 5th worst team has 3-6 times the odds to land in the top 3. I still dont understand why the nba weighted the ping pong scale quite as heavily towards the bottom teams. They reward the tank. Being in the bottom 5 this year is a good place to be.

well Crawford wasn't going to be in long term, the fact that he bought Stevens in, transformed Crawford from scrub to contributor was great. Once Rondo comes back and takes over, Crawford's value will drop instantly. It was the right move at the exact right time. And not to mention, we get a potential first round pick if the 76ers make the players, so more assets for a quicker rebuild.

As for 6-8 range - I am really hoping to grab Smarts. The dude is a competitor. I don't think Embiid, Wiggins or Parker will drop beyond 4 or even 5 spot, but I think Smart is going to be around 5-7. If he is available you have to grab him imo
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Mr October on January 28, 2014, 10:42:24 AM
Oh yeah, i strongly believe Danny is guiding the tank. He moved Crawford at just the right time. Now the celtics have a rusty rondo, and undersized Pressey each shooting under 30% as they guide this crippled team.

As for the draft, i am getting excited about the guys in the 6-8 range. Aaron Gordon, Noah vonleh and willie cauley-stein look like they could become quality nba players. Meanwhile i am souring on Marcus smart big time. I just dont see any elite skill in him. I dont think he will ever be as good as rajon rondo.

In terms of drafting odds, there is just a big difference between being the 5th worst and say 8 or 9.the 5th worst team has 3-6 times the odds to land in the top 3. I still dont understand why the nba weighted the ping pong scale quite as heavily towards the bottom teams. They reward the tank. Being in the bottom 5 this year is a good place to be.

well Crawford wasn't going to be in long term, the fact that he bought Stevens in, transformed Crawford from scrub to contributor was great. Once Rondo comes back and takes over, Crawford's value will drop instantly. It was the right move at the exact right time. And not to mention, we get a potential first round pick if the 76ers make the players, so more assets for a quicker rebuild.

As for 6-8 range - I am really hoping to grab Smarts. The dude is a competitor. I don't think Embiid, Wiggins or Parker will drop beyond 4 or even 5 spot, but I think Smart is going to be around 5-7. If he is available you have to grab him imo

Flipping Crawford for a potential number one pick was a great move. I agree that he had no future as a Celtic at this time. Crawford might struggle, or at least come back to earth, if he is limited to short minutes. The team has too many role players. Ainge's next goal is probably going to be to thin out the power forward logjam. He is just waiting for the right deal.

If the celtics draft smart, i hope i am wrong about him. I like his competitiveness too. But he cant jump, cant shoot, and tries to out physical college players to get his points. I am not convinced that game will translate to the pros. I also haven't seen elite passing skills from him yet.

Title: Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: alecmcafee on January 28, 2014, 11:21:10 AM
Sorry to rain on your parade, but it's not a sure thing all these kids come out, especially Embiid and Parker.

articles suggesting that top college players won't enter the draft come out every season, yet those players still enter the draft. The financial windfall of being selected top 10 in the draft vs the risk of being injured next season or having a poor followup season and dropping in the next draft is too much to pass up. Most people are not at all worried about it, the chance that either of them stay is about 5% imo.
Exactly. Just look at Marcus Smart this year.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: bucknersrevenge on January 28, 2014, 12:50:20 PM
Everything I read about Exum like this here:

http://espn.go.com/nba/draft2014/story/_/id/10363177/dante-exum-declares-2014-nba-draft

Reads like the kid is a PG, just like Smart. I don't know that I see the wisdom is drafting another PG-minded individual that wants to distribute next to Rondo...unless we're planning to move Rondo. I gotta think if Ainge falls out the top 3 he's trading down or moving the pick altogether. Drafting Exum or Smart is a waste of a pick.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Evantime34 on January 28, 2014, 12:56:01 PM
Everything I read about Exum like this here:

http://espn.go.com/nba/draft2014/story/_/id/10363177/dante-exum-declares-2014-nba-draft

Reads like the kid is a PG, just like Smart. I don't know that I see the wisdom is drafting another PG-minded individual that wants to distribute next to Rondo...unless we're planning to move Rondo. I gotta think if Ainge falls out the top 3 he's trading down or moving the pick altogether. Drafting Exum or Smart is a waste of a pick.
Both are scoring PGs, I think they could both play next to Rondo similar to how Phoenix ran a two point guard lineup with Bledsoe and Dragic.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: bucknersrevenge on January 28, 2014, 01:18:17 PM
Everything I read about Exum like this here:

http://espn.go.com/nba/draft2014/story/_/id/10363177/dante-exum-declares-2014-nba-draft

Reads like the kid is a PG, just like Smart. I don't know that I see the wisdom is drafting another PG-minded individual that wants to distribute next to Rondo...unless we're planning to move Rondo. I gotta think if Ainge falls out the top 3 he's trading down or moving the pick altogether. Drafting Exum or Smart is a waste of a pick.
Both are scoring PGs, I think they could both play next to Rondo similar to how Phoenix ran a two point guard lineup with Bledsoe and Dragic.

Yeah they COULD. But I bet if you ask Phoenix that would not be their first choice. It's working out alright since both are kinda combo guards to begin with and they're the best options but Rondo is not a combo guard. I would prefer someone with more scoring potential next to Rondo. Preferably a reliable shooter.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: lightspeed5 on January 28, 2014, 01:26:44 PM
Exum and smart would be underwhelming
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Quetzalcoatl on January 28, 2014, 01:39:33 PM
Everything I read about Exum like this here:

http://espn.go.com/nba/draft2014/story/_/id/10363177/dante-exum-declares-2014-nba-draft

Reads like the kid is a PG, just like Smart. I don't know that I see the wisdom is drafting another PG-minded individual that wants to distribute next to Rondo...unless we're planning to move Rondo. I gotta think if Ainge falls out the top 3 he's trading down or moving the pick altogether. Drafting Exum or Smart is a waste of a pick.

Here is what the article ends with:

Exum can play both guard positions and has the ideal blend of athleticism and skill. However, scouts believe that ultimately he'll be an NBA point guard with elite size (6-foot-6, 188 pounds) as he is very quick with the ball and gets to the rim almost effortlessly.

His jump shot is still a work in progress -- the primary weakness in his game. If he were playing college ball in the U.S., many NBA scouts believe he would be a serious contender for the No. 1 overall pick.


I mean if we were starting Rondo and rookie Derrick Rose or Rondo and rookie Russel Westbrook, do you think we'd be all that concerned?  It wouldn't be the supreme ideal of a team, but it would work just fine and we'd have crazy ball movement on a Brad Stevens team, not to mention elite defenders at both guard spots.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: BigAlTheFuture on January 28, 2014, 01:42:25 PM
I don't know about you guys, but if we end up with Exum or Smart, I'd be looking to trade Rondo on draft night for another lottery pick.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Fafnir on January 28, 2014, 01:48:37 PM
I don't know about you guys, but if we end up with Exum or Smart, I'd be looking to trade Rondo on draft night for another lottery pick.
Yeah I think that Rondo having the ball so much would stifle their development. Plus Rondo being a FA after next means that he's not locked in long term either.

If we end up with either of those I imagine we'll be looking to trade Rondo quickly thereafter.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Quetzalcoatl on January 28, 2014, 01:48:44 PM
I don't know about you guys, but if we end up with Exum or Smart, I'd be looking to trade Rondo on draft night for another lottery pick.

You pick the best player available and you only trade Rondo if the deal is right.  There is no reason to panic trade our best player because the new guy slightly prefers to play his position when he can play another one, too.  We're not getting a top 3 for him, so what is the point anyways?  So we can draft Aaron Gordon? 
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: BigAlTheFuture on January 28, 2014, 02:17:22 PM
I don't know about you guys, but if we end up with Exum or Smart, I'd be looking to trade Rondo on draft night for another lottery pick.

You pick the best player available and you only trade Rondo if the deal is right.  There is no reason to panic trade our best player because the new guy slightly prefers to play his position when he can play another one, too.  We're not getting a top 3 for him, so what is the point anyways?  So we can draft Aaron Gordon?

I'm just saying, might as well go for an all out rebuild. Rondo is pushing 30, I think it will be better for the Celtics long term to pick one of Exum or Smart and trade Rondo. I think we will be able to get at least a pick in the 8-12 range for him. A core of Exum/Smart and Vonleh/Cauley-Stein would be nice.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: hwangjini_1 on January 28, 2014, 02:35:50 PM
just a question concerning the 11.9 percent in the thread title. i understand the 11.9 percent refers to the celtics getting the number 1 pick. right?

but does anyone know the collective/summed percentage of the celtics moving up into the TOP THREE picks?

thanks.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: manl_lui on January 28, 2014, 02:48:27 PM
I don't know about you guys, but if we end up with Exum or Smart, I'd be looking to trade Rondo on draft night for another lottery pick.

You pick the best player available and you only trade Rondo if the deal is right.  There is no reason to panic trade our best player because the new guy slightly prefers to play his position when he can play another one, too.  We're not getting a top 3 for him, so what is the point anyways?  So we can draft Aaron Gordon?

I'm just saying, might as well go for an all out rebuild. Rondo is pushing 30, I think it will be better for the Celtics long term to pick one of Exum or Smart and trade Rondo. I think we will be able to get at least a pick in the 8-12 range for him. A core of Exum/Smart and Vonleh/Cauley-Stein would be nice.

Rondo is already a star and proven leader. Him and a lottery pick should be the future of the Celtics. Trading Rondo would slow down our rebuild not speed it up
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: clover on January 28, 2014, 03:41:41 PM
just a question concerning the 11.9 percent in the thread title. i understand the 11.9 percent refers to the celtics getting the number 1 pick. right?

but does anyone know the collective/summed percentage of the celtics moving up into the TOP THREE picks?

thanks.

Yeah, Jeff has a good article today that totals those percentages up for us:

http://www.celticsblog.com/2014/1/27/5352442/what-are-the-odds-of-the-celtics-winning-the-nba-draft-lottery
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: hwangjini_1 on January 28, 2014, 05:19:20 PM
just a question concerning the 11.9 percent in the thread title. i understand the 11.9 percent refers to the celtics getting the number 1 pick. right?

but does anyone know the collective/summed percentage of the celtics moving up into the TOP THREE picks?

thanks.

Yeah, Jeff has a good article today that totals those percentages up for us:

http://www.celticsblog.com/2014/1/27/5352442/what-are-the-odds-of-the-celtics-winning-the-nba-draft-lottery

yep. foolish me. i just saw this article a few minutes ago. ha, ha..this is the problem with me directly entering cb through the forums page, not the front page.

tks  n tp.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: lightspeed5 on January 29, 2014, 10:23:25 PM
http://espn.go.com/nba/lottery2014/mockdraft

loss against philly

we're now up 4%!
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: SHAQATTACK on January 29, 2014, 10:26:19 PM
I think until Orlando moves Affaflo.....we could pass them too

But we counter punch an move .....BAss an Green  and AB ......
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Boston Garden Leprechaun on January 29, 2014, 10:30:07 PM
I think until Orlando moves Affaflo.....we could pass them too

But we counter punch an move .....BAss an Green  and AB ......

yep. the magic very well could pass us especially if we move uncle snooze and bass.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: JBcat on January 29, 2014, 11:08:44 PM
Wiggins back to back strong games.  29 points tonight.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: esel1000 on January 29, 2014, 11:11:52 PM
Top 4 pick every time on the simulator is beautiful. Let's just end the season right now please
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: BigAlTheFuture on January 29, 2014, 11:15:22 PM
Riggin for Wiggins. Low seed for Embiid. Sorry for Jabari.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: lightspeed5 on January 29, 2014, 11:20:52 PM
(http://bostondirtdogs.boston.com/Headline_Archives/BDD_lottery_5.23.07_gett.jpg)

is danny going to send tommy back again to the draft lottery?
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: LarBrd33 on January 29, 2014, 11:40:59 PM
If the season ended today, we'd have a 100% chance at a Top 6 pick.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: clover on January 29, 2014, 11:43:30 PM
Riggin for Wiggins. Low seed for Embiid. Sorry for Jabari.

Fix 'em for Exum?
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: rondohondo on January 29, 2014, 11:46:14 PM
Riggin for Wiggins. Low seed for Embiid. Sorry for Jabari.

Fix 'em for Exum?

hex em' for exum ;)
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: D.o.s. on January 29, 2014, 11:51:52 PM
(http://bostondirtdogs.boston.com/Headline_Archives/BDD_lottery_5.23.07_gett.jpg)

is danny going to send tommy back again to the draft lottery?

I don't think Tommy's heart could take it.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: blink on January 30, 2014, 12:06:33 AM
Wiggins back to back strong games.  29 points tonight.

I am fine with Embiid getting all the attention right now.  I am a huge Iowa State fan, and Wiggins was unstoppable tonight.  To me AW is starting to live up to the hype.  It would be sweet to see him go to the C's.

Does anyone think Wiggins could play the 2 in the NBA?  Certainly has the quickness, speed, and 3 point shooting.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: BigAlTheFuture on January 30, 2014, 12:10:11 AM
We should have Eddie House's son represent us at the lottery.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: furball on January 30, 2014, 01:17:44 AM
If the season ended today, we'd have a 100% chance at a Top 6 pick.

This is the stat that matters.  15% or what ever the worst team gets even is nothing.  What matters is the guarantee and then you can be really happy with how far up you move from there. 
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: BASS_THUMPER on January 30, 2014, 01:20:42 AM
15.6%..?

Tankers are crying themselves to sleep
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: D.o.s. on January 30, 2014, 01:20:57 AM
We should have Eddie House's son represent us at the lottery.

I will always believe that Norris Cole cost Eddie House a ring with the Heat.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: obnoxiousmime on January 30, 2014, 01:39:15 AM
If the season ended today, we'd have a 100% chance at a Top 6 pick.

This is the stat that matters.  15% or what ever the worst team gets even is nothing.  What matters is the guarantee and then you can be really happy with how far up you move from there.

47% to be in the top 3 isn't so shabby either, especially since there looks to be three pretty safe picks at those spots.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Mr October on January 30, 2014, 02:29:35 AM
I want a top 5 pick. Being a bottom 4 team almost makes that a guarantee. (83%)

We have been burned too hard hoping for a number 1 pick in 1997, and a top 2 pick in 2007. No matter how bad your team is, the odds are against landing the number 1 pick.

I like where we stand.  :)
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Mr October on January 30, 2014, 02:34:20 AM
Wiggins back to back strong games.  29 points tonight.

As the season moves along wiggins and Embiid keep unlocking their potential. I originally thought Parker was the cant miss talent of the 3. If the draft were today i think i would take Embiid and wiggins over parker.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: clover on January 30, 2014, 04:58:58 AM
I want a top 5 pick. Being a bottom 4 team almost makes that a guarantee. (83%)

We have been burned too hard hoping for a number 1 pick in 1997, and a top 2 pick in 2007. No matter how bad your team is, the odds are against landing the number 1 pick.

I like where we stand.  :)

That number 5 pick in 2007 worked out perfectly, giving Danny just what he needed (RA) to land KG.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: lightspeed5 on January 30, 2014, 01:14:36 PM
Lol  I think Danny would have preferred Durant in 2007.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: D.o.s. on January 30, 2014, 01:16:04 PM
Lol  I think Danny would have preferred Durant in 2007.

Or Oden.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: BigAlTheFuture on January 30, 2014, 01:18:58 PM
I just want a top 3 pick. Don't need the number one. I would be fine with Wiggins/Embiid/Parker
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Fafnir on January 30, 2014, 01:22:05 PM
Wiggins back to back strong games.  29 points tonight.

As the season moves along wiggins and Embiid keep unlocking their potential. I originally thought Parker was the cant miss talent of the 3. If the draft were today i think i would take Embiid and wiggins over parker.
That's where I've been the whole year with Wiggins, and Embiid once it became clear just how good he could be.

But honestly any of them would be wonderful. A real young talent like we haven't had since Rondo would be very exciting.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Tr1boy on January 30, 2014, 01:50:23 PM
Draft day trade idea

To 76rs: celts 3rd overall pick (parker) and brooklyn pick
To celtics: 5th pick - smart and 11th pick - jerami grant

Yay or nay?

Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Donoghus on January 30, 2014, 01:50:58 PM
The percentage to land a Top 3 pick would be where my real interest lies.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: BigAlTheFuture on January 30, 2014, 01:52:18 PM
Draft day trade idea

To 76rs: celts 3rd overall pick (parker) and brooklyn pick
To celtics: 5th pick - smart and 11th pick - jerami grant

Yay or nay?

No. Talent after top 3 drops significantly.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Donoghus on January 30, 2014, 01:54:33 PM
Draft day trade idea

To 76rs: celts 3rd overall pick (parker) and brooklyn pick
To celtics: 5th pick - smart and 11th pick - jerami grant

Yay or nay?

Heck no.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Tr1boy on January 30, 2014, 01:56:23 PM
It doesnt drop significantly. Parker and smart are considered similar talents
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: BleedGreen1989 on January 30, 2014, 01:57:25 PM
I just want a top 3 pick. Don't need the number one. I would be fine with Wiggins/Embiid/Parker

Same.

Im not greedy.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: nickagneta on January 30, 2014, 01:59:17 PM
The percentage to land a Top 3 pick would be where my real interest lies.
That's what I am interested in as well.

I think there has been a clear separation of talent from Wiggins, Embiid and Parker and the rest of the field. 1-3 is all I care about as I am not too excited over the prospects of landing Randle(we already have a young PF), Exum, Smart(we already have a PG that can pass lights out, rebound and can't shoot) or Gordon(IMHO, the biggest chance of a total bust in the top 10 players).

If we don't end up in the top 3 I hope Danny trades the pick.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Donoghus on January 30, 2014, 02:00:18 PM
It doesnt drop significantly. Parker and smart are considered similar talents

I'd disagree with that.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Tr1boy on January 30, 2014, 02:01:51 PM
The top 6 then there is a drop off

Embiid
Wiggins
Parker
Smart
Exum
Randle

And parker is the worse defender right now out of the 6
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: fairweatherfan on January 30, 2014, 02:02:03 PM
It doesnt drop significantly. Parker and smart are considered similar talents

Even if I agreed (I don't), that trade would probably require moving Rondo, and good luck getting a good offer if other teams know we have to move him.  Not a fan of major trades that require follow-up major trades to fit into place.  And again I'd rather have Parker regardless.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Tr1boy on January 30, 2014, 02:05:38 PM
The love for parker is incredible to see. Defense is a bigger factor in winning championships not all out offense.

If we drafted parker and wanted offense I would trade him for someone like him later (kyle anderson) and get some extra on top of that
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Tr1boy on January 30, 2014, 02:07:38 PM
I would like to see someone tell me why parker is alot better than anderson.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: BleedGreen1989 on January 30, 2014, 02:11:39 PM
The percentage to land a Top 3 pick would be where my real interest lies.
That's what I am interested in as well.

I think there has been a clear separation of talent from Wiggins, Embiid and Parker and the rest of the field. 1-3 is all I care about as I am not too excited over the prospects of landing Randle(we already have a young PF), Exum, Smart(we already have a PG that can pass lights out, rebound and can't shoot) or Gordon(IMHO, the biggest chance of a total bust in the top 10 players).

If we don't end up in the top 3 I hope Danny trades the pick.

I agree with the above and mostly the bolded part.

Similar to 2007, I think the draft lottery may dictate the direction Ainge goes.

If the pick falls in the top-3, I could see Ainge being more palpable to moving Rondo and deciding to build around Parker/Wiggins/Embiid.

If the pick falls out of the top-3, I believe (or hope) Ainge trades it and decides to build around Rondo and the acquired star.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Donoghus on January 30, 2014, 02:14:54 PM
The love for parker is incredible to see. Defense is a bigger factor in winning championships not all out offense.

If we drafted parker and wanted offense I would trade him for someone like him later (kyle anderson) and get some extra on top of that

This team needs a scorer...bad.  There is clearly a scoring deficiency right now.  Parker would fill a HUGE void in that aspect not to mention that players in the mold of Pierce & Melo don't come along every draft.  Parker fits that mold, IMO.  He can create his own shot which is sorely lacking.

Defense be [dang]ed at the moment.  I'm fine with the Celtics compensating in different ways and I think its way too early to consider a bust on the pro level defensively.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: BigAlTheFuture on January 30, 2014, 02:14:58 PM
I would like to see someone tell me why parker is alot better than anderson.

Who is Anderson?
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: PhoSita on January 30, 2014, 02:15:57 PM
The percentage to land a Top 3 pick would be where my real interest lies.
That's what I am interested in as well.

I think there has been a clear separation of talent from Wiggins, Embiid and Parker and the rest of the field. 1-3 is all I care about as I am not too excited over the prospects of landing Randle(we already have a young PF), Exum, Smart(we already have a PG that can pass lights out, rebound and can't shoot) or Gordon(IMHO, the biggest chance of a total bust in the top 10 players).

If we don't end up in the top 3 I hope Danny trades the pick.

I agree with the above and mostly the bolded part.

Similar to 2007, I think the draft lottery may dictate the direction Ainge goes.

If the pick falls in the top-3, I could see Ainge being more palpable to moving Rondo and deciding to build around Parker/Wiggins/Embiid.

If the pick falls out of the top-3, I believe (or hope) Ainge trades it and decides to build around Rondo and the acquired star.

See, I'm just not convinced that there are going to be really good stars available by the time of the draft. 

I would be unhappy if Ainge traded a top 5 pick in this draft to acquire anything less than a perennial All-Star and potential MVP candidate.

Maybe Melo will be available in a S+T kind of situation, but I'm skeptical. 
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: fantankerous on January 30, 2014, 02:17:24 PM
The love for parker is incredible to see. Defense is a bigger factor in winning championships not all out offense.

If we drafted parker and wanted offense I would trade him for someone like him later (kyle anderson) and get some extra on top of that

Boy am I glad you don't work in the front office.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: PhoSita on January 30, 2014, 02:17:49 PM
The love for parker is incredible to see. Defense is a bigger factor in winning championships not all out offense.

If we drafted parker and wanted offense I would trade him for someone like him later (kyle anderson) and get some extra on top of that

This team needs a scorer...bad.  There is clearly a scoring deficiency right now.  Parker would fill a HUGE void in that aspect not to mention that players in the mold of Pierce & Melo don't come along every draft.  Parker fits that mold, IMO.  He can create his own shot which is sorely lacking.

Defense be [dang]ed at the moment.  I'm fine with the Celtics compensating in different ways and I think its way too early to consider a bust on the pro level defensively.

In this league, it's much harder to find elite volume scorers than it is to find solid defenders.

Focus on getting an unguardable scorer (or two) first, and then surround them with defensive role players.

Other than maybe Embiid, it's not like there are guys available in this draft (or via trade) that are dominant on the defensive end, anyhow.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: nickagneta on January 30, 2014, 02:18:23 PM
While Parker isn't playing the greatest defense in college, he does have the tools to be a very good defender. He has excellent footwork and his lateral movement is very good. He also has elite initial burst forward to close out on people. Physically, he's 6'8", solid and strong with a 7 foot reach means that with work, he should be a very good defender in the right system and with the right coaching.

Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Fafnir on January 30, 2014, 02:19:31 PM
While Parker isn't playing the greatest defense in college, he does have the tools to be a very good defender. He has excellent footwork and his lateral movement is very good. He also has elite initial burst forward to close out on people. Physically, he's 6'8", solid and strong with a 7 foot reach means that with work, he should be a very good defender in the right system and with the right coaching.
He looks awful for Duke, but they're most playing him at PF and C. He's clearly lost playing as a "Big" on defense. Doesn't handle post ups or defending the pick and roll well.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: PhoSita on January 30, 2014, 02:22:07 PM
While Parker isn't playing the greatest defense in college, he does have the tools to be a very good defender. He has excellent footwork and his lateral movement is very good. He also has elite initial burst forward to close out on people. Physically, he's 6'8", solid and strong with a 7 foot reach means that with work, he should be a very good defender in the right system and with the right coaching.

Yeah.  It's not like Pierce was an amazing defender early in his career.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: BleedGreen1989 on January 30, 2014, 02:23:20 PM
The percentage to land a Top 3 pick would be where my real interest lies.
That's what I am interested in as well.

I think there has been a clear separation of talent from Wiggins, Embiid and Parker and the rest of the field. 1-3 is all I care about as I am not too excited over the prospects of landing Randle(we already have a young PF), Exum, Smart(we already have a PG that can pass lights out, rebound and can't shoot) or Gordon(IMHO, the biggest chance of a total bust in the top 10 players).

If we don't end up in the top 3 I hope Danny trades the pick.

I agree with the above and mostly the bolded part.

Similar to 2007, I think the draft lottery may dictate the direction Ainge goes.

If the pick falls in the top-3, I could see Ainge being more palpable to moving Rondo and deciding to build around Parker/Wiggins/Embiid.

If the pick falls out of the top-3, I believe (or hope) Ainge trades it and decides to build around Rondo and the acquired star.

See, I'm just not convinced that there are going to be really good stars available by the time of the draft. 

I would be unhappy if Ainge traded a top 5 pick in this draft to acquire anything less than a perennial All-Star and potential MVP candidate.

Maybe Melo will be available in a S+T kind of situation, but I'm skeptical.

Yeah, it's nearly impossible to tell who would be available but names like Love or Melo are always mentioned.

I'm just not very high on guys outside the top-3.

That being said, I wanted Shabazz Muhammed this year so my draft scouting is about as accurate as Chris Broussard's "rumors".
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: nickagneta on January 30, 2014, 02:25:07 PM
While Parker isn't playing the greatest defense in college, he does have the tools to be a very good defender. He has excellent footwork and his lateral movement is very good. He also has elite initial burst forward to close out on people. Physically, he's 6'8", solid and strong with a 7 foot reach means that with work, he should be a very good defender in the right system and with the right coaching.
He looks awful for Duke, but they're most playing him at PF and C. He's clearly lost playing as a "Big" on defense. Doesn't handle post ups or defending the pick and roll well.
I agree but he's going to be playing a lot on the perimeter in the NBA guarding SFs and that's were I think he could become a very good defender. He is being misused at Duke and probably won't be playing any time at PF or C in the NBA. It will take time and also the ability to stay in one defensive system will help as well, but I think his strengths defensively will show more in the NBA when he is guarding SFs.

Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Fafnir on January 30, 2014, 02:25:22 PM
While Parker isn't playing the greatest defense in college, he does have the tools to be a very good defender. He has excellent footwork and his lateral movement is very good. He also has elite initial burst forward to close out on people. Physically, he's 6'8", solid and strong with a 7 foot reach means that with work, he should be a very good defender in the right system and with the right coaching.

Yeah.  It's not like Pierce was an amazing defender early in his career.
Pierce was a really good defender as a young player. Got lazy with bad habits as he came into his own as a star till Doc and the rest made him lock in.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: aingeforthree on January 30, 2014, 02:25:30 PM
While Parker isn't playing the greatest defense in college, he does have the tools to be a very good defender. He has excellent footwork and his lateral movement is very good. He also has elite initial burst forward to close out on people. Physically, he's 6'8", solid and strong with a 7 foot reach means that with work, he should be a very good defender in the right system and with the right coaching.

I'd echo all of that and add that he's just a frosh.  I mean man, we gotta let the kid develop his game first.  He's coming from high school where he could play lackluster defense and still look like a beast on that end.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: AB_Celtic on January 30, 2014, 02:26:41 PM
Correct me if I'm wrong, but before college Parker was even thought of as a SG/SF? I guess I missed something, because I wasn't aware that he was spending most of his time at PF at Duke.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: BleedGreen1989 on January 30, 2014, 02:30:55 PM
Correct me if I'm wrong, but before college Parker was even thought of as a SG/SF? I guess I missed something, because I wasn't aware that he was spending most of his time at PF at Duke.

Yeah he was spending a lot of time at PF.

Watched the game the other night and he was logging significant minutes at the 5.

Certainly not where he'll be playing in the NBA.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Tr1boy on January 30, 2014, 02:32:45 PM
While Parker isn't playing the greatest defense in college, he does have the tools to be a very good defender. He has excellent footwork and his lateral movement is very good. He also has elite initial burst forward to close out on people. Physically, he's 6'8", solid and strong with a 7 foot reach means that with work, he should be a very good defender in the right system and with the right coaching.

Yeah.  It's not like Pierce was an amazing defender early in his career.

Your kidding right? Pierce was an underrated defender even early.

Melo got lucky playing in a zone defense system in syracuse. Bc in the nba alot of guys have their way with him. Whats the pt of scoring 25 when you will let your man score close to it also.

Parker while has decent athleticism and quickness moves with little to no grace. His movements are not fluid and choppy to best describe.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Tr1boy on January 30, 2014, 02:36:00 PM
I would like to see someone tell me why parker is alot better than anderson.

Who is Anderson?

Kyle anderson. You can also see him take to parker and anderson is considered slow

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5EoxHiXIqfQ
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: CoachBo on January 30, 2014, 02:38:29 PM
While Parker isn't playing the greatest defense in college, he does have the tools to be a very good defender. He has excellent footwork and his lateral movement is very good. He also has elite initial burst forward to close out on people. Physically, he's 6'8", solid and strong with a 7 foot reach means that with work, he should be a very good defender in the right system and with the right coaching.
He looks awful for Duke, but they're most playing him at PF and C. He's clearly lost playing as a "Big" on defense. Doesn't handle post ups or defending the pick and roll well.
I agree but he's going to be playing a lot on the perimeter in the NBA guarding SFs and that's were I think he could become a very good defender. He is being misused at Duke and probably won't be playing any time at PF or C in the NBA. It will take time and also the ability to stay in one defensive system will help as well, but I think his strengths defensively will show more in the NBA when he is guarding SFs.

Totally agree. Parker has the tools to be an elite NBA defender. He is my clear preference for the top pick, since we're hearing out here that Embiid isn't coming out.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: PhoSita on January 30, 2014, 02:39:04 PM
While Parker isn't playing the greatest defense in college, he does have the tools to be a very good defender. He has excellent footwork and his lateral movement is very good. He also has elite initial burst forward to close out on people. Physically, he's 6'8", solid and strong with a 7 foot reach means that with work, he should be a very good defender in the right system and with the right coaching.

Yeah.  It's not like Pierce was an amazing defender early in his career.
Pierce was a really good defender as a young player. Got lazy with bad habits as he came into his own as a star till Doc and the rest made him lock in.

Hm.  Well, in any case, I'll take a great scorer with the physical tools to be a good defender over a great defender with the physical tools to become a nice scorer.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Tr1boy on January 30, 2014, 02:43:52 PM
While Parker isn't playing the greatest defense in college, he does have the tools to be a very good defender. He has excellent footwork and his lateral movement is very good. He also has elite initial burst forward to close out on people. Physically, he's 6'8", solid and strong with a 7 foot reach means that with work, he should be a very good defender in the right system and with the right coaching.

Yeah.  It's not like Pierce was an amazing defender early in his career.
Pierce was a really good defender as a young player. Got lazy with bad habits as he came into his own as a star till Doc and the rest made him lock in.

Hm.  Well, in any case, I'll take a great scorer with the physical tools to be a good defender over a great defender with the physical tools to become a nice scorer.

Is that what happened with marshon brooks?

What about ibaka known to be a defender really turning heads offensively??

I rather have a guy who plays better defense like leonard and george and hone their offensive skills later.

Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Fafnir on January 30, 2014, 02:48:32 PM
While Parker isn't playing the greatest defense in college, he does have the tools to be a very good defender. He has excellent footwork and his lateral movement is very good. He also has elite initial burst forward to close out on people. Physically, he's 6'8", solid and strong with a 7 foot reach means that with work, he should be a very good defender in the right system and with the right coaching.

Yeah.  It's not like Pierce was an amazing defender early in his career.
Pierce was a really good defender as a young player. Got lazy with bad habits as he came into his own as a star till Doc and the rest made him lock in.

Hm.  Well, in any case, I'll take a great scorer with the physical tools to be a good defender over a great defender with the physical tools to become a nice scorer.

Is that what happened with marshon brooks?

What about ibaka known to be a defender really turning heads offensively??

I rather have a guy who plays better defense like leonard and george and hone their offensive skills later.
Ibaka wasn't drafted as a defender or an offensive player. He was drafted as an elite athletic big man who was raw. His defense wasn't very good for all his blocked shots till last year.

Brooks was a low draft pick who was never projected to be a great scorer in the NBA.

Both sides of the ball count in basketball, but offense is really important. Its really hard to build a contender with a crappy offense.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Tr1boy on January 30, 2014, 02:51:48 PM
While Parker isn't playing the greatest defense in college, he does have the tools to be a very good defender. He has excellent footwork and his lateral movement is very good. He also has elite initial burst forward to close out on people. Physically, he's 6'8", solid and strong with a 7 foot reach means that with work, he should be a very good defender in the right system and with the right coaching.

Yeah.  It's not like Pierce was an amazing defender early in his career.
Pierce was a really good defender as a young player. Got lazy with bad habits as he came into his own as a star till Doc and the rest made him lock in.

Hm.  Well, in any case, I'll take a great scorer with the physical tools to be a good defender over a great defender with the physical tools to become a nice scorer.

Is that what happened with marshon brooks?

What about ibaka known to be a defender really turning heads offensively??

I rather have a guy who plays better defense like leonard and george and hone their offensive skills later.
Ibaka wasn't drafted as a defender or an offensive player. He was drafted as an elite athletic big man who was raw. His defense wasn't very good for all his blocked shots till last year.

Brooks was a low draft pick who was never projected to be a great scorer in the NBA.

Both sides of the ball count in basketball, but offense is really important. Its really hard to build a contender with a crappy offense.

Or crappy defense.

I like and believe in the saying that defense wins championships
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Donoghus on January 30, 2014, 02:53:13 PM
While Parker isn't playing the greatest defense in college, he does have the tools to be a very good defender. He has excellent footwork and his lateral movement is very good. He also has elite initial burst forward to close out on people. Physically, he's 6'8", solid and strong with a 7 foot reach means that with work, he should be a very good defender in the right system and with the right coaching.

Yeah.  It's not like Pierce was an amazing defender early in his career.
Pierce was a really good defender as a young player. Got lazy with bad habits as he came into his own as a star till Doc and the rest made him lock in.

Hm.  Well, in any case, I'll take a great scorer with the physical tools to be a good defender over a great defender with the physical tools to become a nice scorer.

Is that what happened with marshon brooks?

What about ibaka known to be a defender really turning heads offensively??

I rather have a guy who plays better defense like leonard and george and hone their offensive skills later.

Jabari Parker & Marshon Brooks aren't in the same hemisphere, c'mon.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Tr1boy on January 30, 2014, 02:55:49 PM
While Parker isn't playing the greatest defense in college, he does have the tools to be a very good defender. He has excellent footwork and his lateral movement is very good. He also has elite initial burst forward to close out on people. Physically, he's 6'8", solid and strong with a 7 foot reach means that with work, he should be a very good defender in the right system and with the right coaching.

Yeah.  It's not like Pierce was an amazing defender early in his career.
Pierce was a really good defender as a young player. Got lazy with bad habits as he came into his own as a star till Doc and the rest made him lock in.

Hm.  Well, in any case, I'll take a great scorer with the physical tools to be a good defender over a great defender with the physical tools to become a nice scorer.

Is that what happened with marshon brooks?

What about ibaka known to be a defender really turning heads offensively??

I rather have a guy who plays better defense like leonard and george and hone their offensive skills later.

Jabari Parker & Marshon Brooks aren't in the same hemisphere, c'mon.

Its not that. Just that both have In  common nice offensive capabilities but are poor defenders. Did brooks become a better defender in the nba?

You cant expect parker to be even a mediocre defender in the nba. And you canf bandaid the situation either by surrounding him with defensive minded role players.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Fafnir on January 30, 2014, 02:57:30 PM
While Parker isn't playing the greatest defense in college, he does have the tools to be a very good defender. He has excellent footwork and his lateral movement is very good. He also has elite initial burst forward to close out on people. Physically, he's 6'8", solid and strong with a 7 foot reach means that with work, he should be a very good defender in the right system and with the right coaching.

Yeah.  It's not like Pierce was an amazing defender early in his career.
Pierce was a really good defender as a young player. Got lazy with bad habits as he came into his own as a star till Doc and the rest made him lock in.

Hm.  Well, in any case, I'll take a great scorer with the physical tools to be a good defender over a great defender with the physical tools to become a nice scorer.

Is that what happened with marshon brooks?

What about ibaka known to be a defender really turning heads offensively??

I rather have a guy who plays better defense like leonard and george and hone their offensive skills later.

Jabari Parker & Marshon Brooks aren't in the same hemisphere, c'mon.

Its not that. Just that both have In  common nice offensive capabilities but are poor defenders. Did brooks become a better defender in the nba?

You cant expect parker to be even a mediocre defender in the nba. And you canf bandaid the situation either by zhrrounding him with defensive minded role players.
Why can't you? He has the physical tools and the profile of a great many NBA players is to become better defensively.

Not only that but plenty of teams have built very good team defenses with limited SFs defensively.

If Parker's defense is a deal breaker for you I'm not sure there is any prospect out there you'd like to draft at all because your standards and expectations aren't aligned with reality.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Tr1boy on January 30, 2014, 03:02:04 PM
While Parker isn't playing the greatest defense in college, he does have the tools to be a very good defender. He has excellent footwork and his lateral movement is very good. He also has elite initial burst forward to close out on people. Physically, he's 6'8", solid and strong with a 7 foot reach means that with work, he should be a very good defender in the right system and with the right coaching.

Yeah.  It's not like Pierce was an amazing defender early in his career.
Pierce was a really good defender as a young player. Got lazy with bad habits as he came into his own as a star till Doc and the rest made him lock in.

Hm.  Well, in any case, I'll take a great scorer with the physical tools to be a good defender over a great defender with the physical tools to become a nice scorer.

Is that what happened with marshon brooks?

What about ibaka known to be a defender really turning heads offensively??

I rather have a guy who plays better defense like leonard and george and hone their offensive skills later.

Jabari Parker & Marshon Brooks aren't in the same hemisphere, c'mon.

Its not that. Just that both have In  common nice offensive capabilities but are poor defenders. Did brooks become a better defender in the nba?

You cant expect parker to be even a mediocre defender in the nba. And you canf bandaid the situation either by zhrrounding him with defensive minded role players.
Why can't you? He has the physical tools and the profile of a great many NBA players is to become better defensively.

Not only that but plenty of teams have built very good team defenses with limited SFs defensively.

If Parker's defense is a deal breaker for you I'm not sure there is any prospect out there you'd like to draft at all because your standards and expectations aren't aligned with reality.

I rather have wiggins. He is a more ready 2 way player. I rather have someone not as talented offensively but gifted defensively In jerami grant. I want a two way talent not melo anthony risk

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjlCgQB-rGk
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Fafnir on January 30, 2014, 03:04:54 PM
I'd rather have Wiggins too.

But you're talking about trading Parker to go down and grab a SF prospect who's a mid to late first round pick right now.

That's a pretty extreme way to value "defense". I think its more you just don't like Parker.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Tr1boy on January 30, 2014, 03:10:32 PM
I'd rather have Wiggins too.

But you're talking about trading Parker to go down and grab a SF prospect who's a mid to late first round pick right now.

That's a pretty extreme way to value "defense". I think its more you just don't like Parker.

Parker is unselfish, talented and tries out there. But trying is not enough. The nba is a tough league. I become most upset now how poor our defense is. You hear tommy say at least make the other guy think twice b4 driving in.

You just cant trade baskets and win. U need stops.

Grant is not mid to late prospect. Some have him going 8. He is like a ibaka and is going to get better while already be able to play good defense and on the bonus rebound and block shots better than some pfs in the nba
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: nickagneta on January 30, 2014, 03:22:58 PM
I like Grant but think he's probably going to be there for the Celtics second pick. Grant and Embiid would be an extremely successful draft though one in which the Celtics would be looking to not see major results from those players for 3 years or so. They are that raw.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Tr1boy on January 30, 2014, 03:34:14 PM
I like Grant but think he's probably going to be there for the Celtics second pick. Grant and Embiid would be an extremely successful draft though one in which the Celtics would be looking to not see major results from those players for 3 years or so. They are that raw.

Grant wont be avail at 20-26. Raw but too much upside to ignore. Just as gifted athletically as wiggins. Imo can jumper higher.

He is more skilled than ppl think . Has improved his jump shot and ability to drive in. His passing skills has been always good
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: nickagneta on January 30, 2014, 03:48:12 PM
I like Grant but think he's probably going to be there for the Celtics second pick. Grant and Embiid would be an extremely successful draft though one in which the Celtics would be looking to not see major results from those players for 3 years or so. They are that raw.

Grant wont be avail at 20-26. Raw but too much upside to ignore. Just as gifted athletically as wiggins. Imo can jumper higher.

He is more skilled than ppl think . Has improved his jump shot and ability to drive in. His passing skills has been always good
I think you are wrong about when he will be available. His shooting is going to hold him back.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Tr1boy on January 30, 2014, 03:54:28 PM
I like Grant but think he's probably going to be there for the Celtics second pick. Grant and Embiid would be an extremely successful draft though one in which the Celtics would be looking to not see major results from those players for 3 years or so. They are that raw.

Grant wont be avail at 20-26. Raw but too much upside to ignore. Just as gifted athletically as wiggins. Imo can jumper higher.

He is more skilled than ppl think . Has improved his jump shot and ability to drive in. His passing skills has been always good
I think you are wrong about when he will be available. His shooting is going to hold him back.

Have you actually seen him play games?

He is not automatic but he makes more then he misses. Last year he was inconsistent and streaky. So he has improved.

Even without a jump shot , he will get you 10-12 points on putbacks and out jumping you alone. This kid is athletically gifted with a 7'3 wingspan but also has upside and a better than avg bbiq. He is not going to be there at 20-26
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: RyNye on January 30, 2014, 03:55:14 PM
Honest, I'm really down on Jabari. He is the only one of the top prospects I have seen in person (I go to Duke), and I was really unimpressed with his game. Maybe I just caught him on off-nights or something, but to me he smacks of a Rudy Gay 2.0. A talented, athletic player who is too inconsistent/uncommitted to playing good ball and perpetually underachieving.

The games I saw, his positioning was always bad, his shot selection was terrible, and it was mostly the poor defensive instincts of most college players that let him keep getting into the paint. I couldn't help but think that any half decent NBA defense would stop him cold
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: VitorSullyandKOFan on January 30, 2014, 03:58:22 PM
I want Hezonja with the Nets pick he has a lot of talent I don't care if he stays a year or two in Spain.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: fairweatherfan on January 30, 2014, 04:02:53 PM
I like Grant but think he's probably going to be there for the Celtics second pick. Grant and Embiid would be an extremely successful draft though one in which the Celtics would be looking to not see major results from those players for 3 years or so. They are that raw.

Grant wont be avail at 20-26. Raw but too much upside to ignore. Just as gifted athletically as wiggins. Imo can jumper higher.

He is more skilled than ppl think . Has improved his jump shot and ability to drive in. His passing skills has been always good
I think you are wrong about when he will be available. His shooting is going to hold him back.

Have you actually seen him play games?

He is not automatic but he makes more then he misses. Last year he was inconsistent and streaky. So he has improved.

Even without a jump shot , he will get you 10-12 points on putbacks and out jumping you alone. This kid is athletically gifted with a 7'3 wingspan but also has upside and a better than avg bbiq. He is not going to be there at 20-26

I've watched almost every Syracuse game this year, and Grant has a lot of athletic talent but very little polish.  His shooting percentage is pretty good largely because of all the putbacks and follows he gets from outleaping defenders in the paint.  That's not going to be so easy in the NBA.  He rarely creates his own shots and is frequently invisible on offense until there's a board to be grabbed.  He does have good timing and generally uses his abilities wisely, though.  Plays good D without fouling much, but zone players don't always translate well to NBA defenses.

He could be drafted sooner than later but it depends on how much stock teams place in his athleticism and potential, because he's still very raw.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Donoghus on January 30, 2014, 04:16:02 PM
I like Grant but think he's probably going to be there for the Celtics second pick. Grant and Embiid would be an extremely successful draft though one in which the Celtics would be looking to not see major results from those players for 3 years or so. They are that raw.

Grant wont be avail at 20-26. Raw but too much upside to ignore. Just as gifted athletically as wiggins. Imo can jumper higher.

He is more skilled than ppl think . Has improved his jump shot and ability to drive in. His passing skills has been always good
I think you are wrong about when he will be available. His shooting is going to hold him back.

Have you actually seen him play games?

He is not automatic but he makes more then he misses. Last year he was inconsistent and streaky. So he has improved.

Even without a jump shot , he will get you 10-12 points on putbacks and out jumping you alone. This kid is athletically gifted with a 7'3 wingspan but also has upside and a better than avg bbiq. He is not going to be there at 20-26

"Even without a jump shot?"

That's about the last thing I want to hear about now about a potential Celtics target.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Tr1boy on January 30, 2014, 04:22:27 PM
I like Grant but think he's probably going to be there for the Celtics second pick. Grant and Embiid would be an extremely successful draft though one in which the Celtics would be looking to not see major results from those players for 3 years or so. They are that raw.

Grant wont be avail at 20-26. Raw but too much upside to ignore. Just as gifted athletically as wiggins. Imo can jumper higher.

He is more skilled than ppl think . Has improved his jump shot and ability to drive in. His passing skills has been always good
I think you are wrong about when he will be available. His shooting is going to hold him back.

Have you actually seen him play games?

He is not automatic but he makes more then he misses. Last year he was inconsistent and streaky. So he has improved.

Even without a jump shot , he will get you 10-12 points on putbacks and out jumping you alone. This kid is athletically gifted with a 7'3 wingspan but also has upside and a better than avg bbiq. He is not going to be there at 20-26

I've watched almost every Syracuse game this year, and Grant has a lot of athletic talent but very little polish.  His shooting percentage is pretty good largely because of all the putbacks and follows he gets from outleaping defenders in the paint.  That's not going to be so easy in the NBA.  He rarely creates his own shots and is frequently invisible on offense until there's a board to be grabbed.  He does have good timing and generally uses his abilities wisely, though.  Plays good D without fouling much, but zone players don't always translate well to NBA defenses.

He could be drafted sooner than later but it depends on how much stock teams place in his athleticism and potential, because he's still very raw.

I agree with majority of what you said of grant. He can also use 10-15 pounds of muscle.

He is raw and not a go to guy. If he had that capability we be talking about the top three as embiid , wiggins , grant

Grant now is like a paul george, leonard, ibaka without as polished offense. Though imo he will get better and improve like ibaka has throughout his career but at a faster rate
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Tr1boy on January 30, 2014, 04:26:16 PM
I like Grant but think he's probably going to be there for the Celtics second pick. Grant and Embiid would be an extremely successful draft though one in which the Celtics would be looking to not see major results from those players for 3 years or so. They are that raw.

Grant wont be avail at 20-26. Raw but too much upside to ignore. Just as gifted athletically as wiggins. Imo can jumper higher.

He is more skilled than ppl think . Has improved his jump shot and ability to drive in. His passing skills has been always good
I think you are wrong about when he will be available. His shooting is going to hold him back.

Have you actually seen him play games?

He is not automatic but he makes more then he misses. Last year he was inconsistent and streaky. So he has improved.

Even without a jump shot , he will get you 10-12 points on putbacks and out jumping you alone. This kid is athletically gifted with a 7'3 wingspan but also has upside and a better than avg bbiq. He is not going to be there at 20-26

"Even without a jump shot?"

That's about the last thing I want to hear about now about a potential Celtics target.

What I meant was even if he didnt have a jumper. He does have one. He can make 18 ft shots

His ft shooting has improved since last year and close to 70 per this season
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: sofutomygaha on January 30, 2014, 04:29:36 PM

Again, as we follow this countdown, we should keep in mind that we have a 80-90% chance of picking in the top 5, and about a 20% chance of that player we draft in the top 5 being an all-star or better.

Huh... actually that works out to about a 15% chance of "winning" the draft. =)
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: nickagneta on January 30, 2014, 04:44:30 PM
I like Grant but think he's probably going to be there for the Celtics second pick. Grant and Embiid would be an extremely successful draft though one in which the Celtics would be looking to not see major results from those players for 3 years or so. They are that raw.

Grant wont be avail at 20-26. Raw but too much upside to ignore. Just as gifted athletically as wiggins. Imo can jumper higher.

He is more skilled than ppl think . Has improved his jump shot and ability to drive in. His passing skills has been always good
I think you are wrong about when he will be available. His shooting is going to hold him back.

Have you actually seen him play games?

He is not automatic but he makes more then he misses. Last year he was inconsistent and streaky. So he has improved.

Even without a jump shot , he will get you 10-12 points on putbacks and out jumping you alone. This kid is athletically gifted with a 7'3 wingspan but also has upside and a better than avg bbiq. He is not going to be there at 20-26
Have I seen him play? My son goes to Syracuse and I have watched 90% of their games. Have you seen him play as you appear to be quoting directly from his DraftExpress page regarding his shooting?

He has a PF game and a SF body. He's terrific in the paint because of his athleticism but has zero true outside game and very little game to get open for his 15 foot jumper that seems to be falling over the last couple weeks. He will be a terrific defender and above average rebounder but unless he is in transition or being successful with his inside game on less athletic SFs, he will struggle offensively in the NBA without that good outside shot.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Tr1boy on January 30, 2014, 04:50:19 PM
I like Grant but think he's probably going to be there for the Celtics second pick. Grant and Embiid would be an extremely successful draft though one in which the Celtics would be looking to not see major results from those players for 3 years or so. They are that raw.

Grant wont be avail at 20-26. Raw but too much upside to ignore. Just as gifted athletically as wiggins. Imo can jumper higher.

He is more skilled than ppl think . Has improved his jump shot and ability to drive in. His passing skills has been always good
I think you are wrong about when he will be available. His shooting is going to hold him back.

Have you actually seen him play games?

He is not automatic but he makes more then he misses. Last year he was inconsistent and streaky. So he has improved.

Even without a jump shot , he will get you 10-12 points on putbacks and out jumping you alone. This kid is athletically gifted with a 7'3 wingspan but also has upside and a better than avg bbiq. He is not going to be there at 20-26
Have I seen him play? My son goes to Syracuse and I have watched 90% of their games. Have you seen him play as you appear to be quoting directly from his DraftExpress page regarding his shooting?

He has a PF game and a SF body. He's terrific in the paint because of his athleticism but has zero true outside game and very little game to get open for his 15 foot jumper that seems to be falling over the last couple weeks. He will be a terrific defender and above average rebounder but unless he is in transition or being successful with his inside game on less athletic SFs, he will struggle offensively in the NBA without that good outside shot.

He has a shot. You should rewatch some games.he is also able to drive and finish. A guy with little to no perimter skills is gerald wallace. No jump shot either

At worse he is improving. I guess you cant see his upside

Btw you can actually play for syracuse for all it matters but that doesnt mean I agree with your assessments
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: nickagneta on January 30, 2014, 05:00:48 PM
I like Grant but think he's probably going to be there for the Celtics second pick. Grant and Embiid would be an extremely successful draft though one in which the Celtics would be looking to not see major results from those players for 3 years or so. They are that raw.

Grant wont be avail at 20-26. Raw but too much upside to ignore. Just as gifted athletically as wiggins. Imo can jumper higher.

He is more skilled than ppl think . Has improved his jump shot and ability to drive in. His passing skills has been always good
I think you are wrong about when he will be available. His shooting is going to hold him back.

Have you actually seen him play games?

He is not automatic but he makes more then he misses. Last year he was inconsistent and streaky. So he has improved.

Even without a jump shot , he will get you 10-12 points on putbacks and out jumping you alone. This kid is athletically gifted with a 7'3 wingspan but also has upside and a better than avg bbiq. He is not going to be there at 20-26
Have I seen him play? My son goes to Syracuse and I have watched 90% of their games. Have you seen him play as you appear to be quoting directly from his DraftExpress page regarding his shooting?

He has a PF game and a SF body. He's terrific in the paint because of his athleticism but has zero true outside game and very little game to get open for his 15 foot jumper that seems to be falling over the last couple weeks. He will be a terrific defender and above average rebounder but unless he is in transition or being successful with his inside game on less athletic SFs, he will struggle offensively in the NBA without that good outside shot.

He has a shot. You should rewatch some games.he is also able to drive and finish. A guy with little to no perimter skills is gerald wallace. No jump shot either

At worse he is improving. I guess you cant see his upside

Btw you can actually play for syracuse for all it matters but that doesnt mean I agree with your assessments
And I don't agree with your assessments but I wasn't the one that started the calling you about being knowledgeable enough to discuss something by immaturely asking if you actually had seen him play. That was you.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Tr1boy on January 30, 2014, 05:38:04 PM
Nick you say he has little to no outside game but for some reason these days his jumpers are falling?

You also havent mentioned about his ability to pass.

Grant doesnt have to be pierce on offense in order to succeed in the nba. He can be more like a ibaka sf version and still do damage.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: lightspeed5 on January 30, 2014, 07:56:49 PM
this just feels right

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-6Lx39eT1KsQ/UnO25_IAZWI/AAAAAAAARjU/yeQ-Ea4QAuI/s1600/ANDREW%2BWIGGINS.jpg)
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: PickNRoll on January 30, 2014, 07:58:58 PM
I've only seen the highlight reels and scouting vids, so take this with a grain of salt.  To me, Grant looks like Shawn Kemp.  Incredibly explosive, but raw.  We've seen a lot of these hyper-athletic guys come and go in the last 10 years.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: LilRip on January 30, 2014, 08:10:12 PM
While Parker isn't playing the greatest defense in college, he does have the tools to be a very good defender. He has excellent footwork and his lateral movement is very good. He also has elite initial burst forward to close out on people. Physically, he's 6'8", solid and strong with a 7 foot reach means that with work, he should be a very good defender in the right system and with the right coaching.

Yeah.  It's not like Pierce was an amazing defender early in his career.
Pierce was a really good defender as a young player. Got lazy with bad habits as he came into his own as a star till Doc and the rest made him lock in.

Hm.  Well, in any case, I'll take a great scorer with the physical tools to be a good defender over a great defender with the physical tools to become a nice scorer.

Is that what happened with marshon brooks?

What about ibaka known to be a defender really turning heads offensively??

I rather have a guy who plays better defense like leonard and george and hone their offensive skills later.

lol, is that what happened with Hasheem Thabeet or Fab Melo?

i get your concern about two-way players. I would take Wiggins over Parker as well. But c'mon, referencing Marshon Brooks?

I think a more apt way to look at things would be: would you rather draft Carmelo Anthony or Tayshaun Prince?
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Tr1boy on January 30, 2014, 09:09:02 PM
I've only seen the highlight reels and scouting vids, so take this with a grain of salt.  To me, Grant looks like Shawn Kemp.  Incredibly explosive, but raw.  We've seen a lot of these hyper-athletic guys come and go in the last 10 years.

Take a look at this and tell me if Grant is as raw as you think. It's not all about spetacular dunks/blocks.  Once he refines his game, he is going to be real good

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQFSt4LOs3c

(time on youtube)
9:14 Grant makes a long jump shot
13:40 two dribble layup in traffic (going to be hard to defend)
15:41 defensive rebound
18:30 two dribble layup attempt, but fouled.
22:22 again fouled
23:29 block shot
25:43 drive and pass
29:00 baseline jumper.

Doesn't play over his head (doesn't turnover the ball much) and doesn't get enough touches.  He is not going to be easy to stop one on one once he hones his skills. Jumps so quickly off the ground, has an oustanding first step and length
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Smokeeye123 on January 30, 2014, 09:38:44 PM
Really really worried about the next 5 games...Magic, Sixers, Kings, Mavs, and Bucks...We're bad but I honestly could see us winning 3 or 4 of those games.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: indeedproceed on January 30, 2014, 09:42:13 PM
I watched the Cuse-Pitt game..and Grant is an athlete, very talented, and he is raw as anybody out there. Skills aren't there yet.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: BigAlTheFuture on January 30, 2014, 09:53:15 PM
Really really worried about the next 5 games...Magic, Sixers, Kings, Mavs, and Bucks...We're bad but I honestly could see us winning 3 or 4 of those games.

We always say this when we face bad teams but we always end up losing. Stay positive! We're worser den dat.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Tr1boy on January 30, 2014, 09:58:35 PM
I watched the Cuse-Pitt game..and Grant is an athlete, very talented, and he is raw as anybody out there. Skills aren't there yet.

I agree.  You can tell he knows the game though.

I think in the NBA he will go through changing his position like KG did, from SF, then eventually with enough strength able to play the PF spot. Also refine his skills along the way

Not sure he will ever be a go to guy. But will be a double double machine, with a few blocks, assists and many highlight reel plays.  In crunch time when baskets are missed, i can see Grant flying in for offensive rebounds and clutch putbacks
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Smokeeye123 on January 30, 2014, 10:12:19 PM
Really really worried about the next 5 games...Magic, Sixers, Kings, Mavs, and Bucks...We're bad but I honestly could see us winning 3 or 4 of those games.

We always say this when we face bad teams but we always end up losing. Stay positive! We're worser den dat.
Hope your'e right...If we can somehow go 1-4 we should have a real shot at the 2nd worse record since by the end of these 5 games the trade deadline will be approaching and Danny will probably making us even worse.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: D.o.s. on January 30, 2014, 11:46:34 PM
While Parker isn't playing the greatest defense in college, he does have the tools to be a very good defender. He has excellent footwork and his lateral movement is very good. He also has elite initial burst forward to close out on people. Physically, he's 6'8", solid and strong with a 7 foot reach means that with work, he should be a very good defender in the right system and with the right coaching.

Yeah.  It's not like Pierce was an amazing defender early in his career.
Pierce was a really good defender as a young player. Got lazy with bad habits as he came into his own as a star till Doc and the rest made him lock in.

Hm.  Well, in any case, I'll take a great scorer with the physical tools to be a good defender over a great defender with the physical tools to become a nice scorer.

Is that what happened with marshon brooks?

What about ibaka known to be a defender really turning heads offensively??

I rather have a guy who plays better defense like leonard and george and hone their offensive skills later.

lol, is that what happened with Hasheem Thabeet or Fab Melo?

i get your concern about two-way players. I would take Wiggins over Parker as well. But c'mon, referencing Marshon Brooks?

I think a more apt way to look at things would be: would you rather draft Carmelo Anthony or Tayshaun Prince?

To be fair to Hasheem Thabeet is still in the league, and has turned into a pretty all right player.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: get_banners on January 31, 2014, 01:13:27 AM
While Parker isn't playing the greatest defense in college, he does have the tools to be a very good defender. He has excellent footwork and his lateral movement is very good. He also has elite initial burst forward to close out on people. Physically, he's 6'8", solid and strong with a 7 foot reach means that with work, he should be a very good defender in the right system and with the right coaching.

Yeah.  It's not like Pierce was an amazing defender early in his career.
Pierce was a really good defender as a young player. Got lazy with bad habits as he came into his own as a star till Doc and the rest made him lock in.

Hm.  Well, in any case, I'll take a great scorer with the physical tools to be a good defender over a great defender with the physical tools to become a nice scorer.

Is that what happened with marshon brooks?

What about ibaka known to be a defender really turning heads offensively??

I rather have a guy who plays better defense like leonard and george and hone their offensive skills later.

lol, is that what happened with Hasheem Thabeet or Fab Melo?

i get your concern about two-way players. I would take Wiggins over Parker as well. But c'mon, referencing Marshon Brooks?

I think a more apt way to look at things would be: would you rather draft Carmelo Anthony or Tayshaun Prince?

To be fair to Hasheem Thabeet is still in the league, and has turned into a pretty all right player.
"all right" is a stretch for thabeet. at best, he's better than fab melo (which isn't saying much), which is pretty atrocious for someone picked as high as he was.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Jayman on January 31, 2014, 02:28:40 AM
Looks good to me

(http://imageshack.com/a/img838/1886/q3ye.jpg)
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: crimson_stallion on January 31, 2014, 03:26:11 AM
I see one problem with the Hakeem / Embiid comparisons.  Hakeem had outstanding BBIQ - Embiid seems to have the BBIQ of DeAndre Jordan.

 Also don't agree about Parker having the physical tools to be a  good NBA defender.  Everything I've seen on Parker suggest that his lack of lateral quickness is biggest thing  holdinghim back from being an above average defender.

I'd like a two way player myself - Wiggins, Smart or Exum.  Maybe Randle.  I wouldn't complain if we got Embiid, but he sounds to me like a big risk at such a high pick.  To me he looks like the most likely to disappoint out of the top prospect...I fear the possibility of him becoming the next JaVale McGee (just with better offensive upside). 

He'll contribute no matter what, especially on defense and boards, but his story just sounds way to muchlike a rich man's Fab Melo story to me, kinda scares me of a bit.

If be ok with taking the gamble, but this is a great with a lot of talent, and there are a good 4-5 guys who are highly likely to be future all-stars.   Parker looks like a future Carmello, Smart looks like a slightly less athletic D Wade, Exum looks like the next Penny Hardaway, Wiggins could be the next Paul George, Randle could be thenext Antonio McDyess (he was a beast before he got injured).

Then you have Embiid, who there's much uncertainty about.  He could become the next Mutombo or the next David Robinson ... or he could become Handle McGee or Michael Olowokandi or Samuel Dalembert.   I think he's probably thebiggest gamble in the top 6, followed by Wiggins (who could, as others have said, be another Jeff Green).
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: cman88 on January 31, 2014, 09:28:33 AM
I still feel like most contending teams these days have elite small forwards. Green definitely isnt the answer, so I feel we should go for Wiggins/Parker.

I know they say always go for the big, but that hasnt always worked out for teams...its a guards league right now.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: indeedproceed on January 31, 2014, 09:59:27 AM
I see one problem with the Hakeem / Embiid comparisons.  Hakeem had outstanding BBIQ - Embiid seems to have the BBIQ of DeAndre Jordan.

I'm not the biggest fan of the Hakeem/Embiid comparisons, but look at them side by side in their freshmen years:

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/joel-embiid-1.html

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/hakeem-olajuwon-1.html

Embiid: 11.4 pts, 7.6 reb, 2.7 blks, 65.9% shooting
Hakeem: 8.3 pts, 6.2 reb, 2.5 blks, 60.7% shooting

Their per36 numbers are extremely similar as well.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: rondohondo on January 31, 2014, 10:04:33 AM
I see one problem with the Hakeem / Embiid comparisons.  Hakeem had outstanding BBIQ - Embiid seems to have the BBIQ of DeAndre Jordan.

I'm not the biggest fan of the Hakeem/Embiid comparisons, but look at them side by side in their freshmen years:

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/joel-embiid-1.html

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/hakeem-olajuwon-1.html

Embiid: 11.4 pts, 7.6 reb, 2.7 blks, 65.9% shooting
Hakeem: 8.3 pts, 6.2 reb, 2.5 blks, 60.7% shooting

Their per36 numbers are extremely similar as well.

Embiid is also a very good passer out of the post when being double teamed, a lot like Sully.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: BballTim on January 31, 2014, 10:11:37 AM
I see one problem with the Hakeem / Embiid comparisons.  Hakeem had outstanding BBIQ - Embiid seems to have the BBIQ of DeAndre Jordan.

I'm not the biggest fan of the Hakeem/Embiid comparisons, but look at them side by side in their freshmen years:

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/joel-embiid-1.html

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/hakeem-olajuwon-1.html

Embiid: 11.4 pts, 7.6 reb, 2.7 blks, 65.9% shooting
Hakeem: 8.3 pts, 6.2 reb, 2.5 blks, 60.7% shooting

Their per36 numbers are extremely similar as well.

  Hakeem grew up playing soccer and was pretty new to the game of basketball that year.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: D.o.s. on January 31, 2014, 10:14:30 AM
One of the best things Bill Simmons ever wrote about basketball was the absolutely insane likelihood of a player being the next Hakeem.

But if Embiid is even 75% of The Dream, I'm going to be a very happy basketball fan, regardless of which team he ends up on (unless it's the Lakers).
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Fafnir on January 31, 2014, 10:15:54 AM
I see one problem with the Hakeem / Embiid comparisons.  Hakeem had outstanding BBIQ - Embiid seems to have the BBIQ of DeAndre Jordan.

I'm not the biggest fan of the Hakeem/Embiid comparisons, but look at them side by side in their freshmen years:

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/joel-embiid-1.html

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/hakeem-olajuwon-1.html

Embiid: 11.4 pts, 7.6 reb, 2.7 blks, 65.9% shooting
Hakeem: 8.3 pts, 6.2 reb, 2.5 blks, 60.7% shooting

Their per36 numbers are extremely similar as well.

  Hakeem grew up playing soccer and was pretty new to the game of basketball that year.
So is Embiid isn't he? I thought he started playing basketball competitively 3 years ago or something like that.

I don't think he's the next Hakeem of course but I thought a late start to basketball was part of the comparison.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: BleedGreen1989 on January 31, 2014, 10:20:52 AM
I see one problem with the Hakeem / Embiid comparisons.  Hakeem had outstanding BBIQ - Embiid seems to have the BBIQ of DeAndre Jordan.

I'm not the biggest fan of the Hakeem/Embiid comparisons, but look at them side by side in their freshmen years:

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/joel-embiid-1.html

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/hakeem-olajuwon-1.html

Embiid: 11.4 pts, 7.6 reb, 2.7 blks, 65.9% shooting
Hakeem: 8.3 pts, 6.2 reb, 2.5 blks, 60.7% shooting

Their per36 numbers are extremely similar as well.

  Hakeem grew up playing soccer and was pretty new to the game of basketball that year.
So is Embiid isn't he? I thought he started playing basketball competitively 3 years ago or something like that.

I don't think he's the next Hakeem of course but I thought a late start to basketball was part of the comparison.

Yeah. Embiid didn't start playing organized basketball until a few years ago.

I don't want to compare anybody to The Dream, but I will say Embiid is #1 on my board.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Tr1boy on January 31, 2014, 10:50:53 AM
I see one problem with the Hakeem / Embiid comparisons.  Hakeem had outstanding BBIQ - Embiid seems to have the BBIQ of DeAndre Jordan.

 Also don't agree about Parker having the physical tools to be a  good NBA defender.  Everything I've seen on Parker suggest that his lack of lateral quickness is biggest thing  holdinghim back from being an above average defender.

I'd like a two way player myself - Wiggins, Smart or Exum.  Maybe Randle.  I wouldn't complain if we got Embiid, but he sounds to me like a big risk at such a high pick.  To me he looks like the most likely to disappoint out of the top prospect...I fear the possibility of him becoming the next JaVale McGee (just with better offensive upside). 

He'll contribute no matter what, especially on defense and boards, but his story just sounds way to muchlike a rich man's Fab Melo story to me, kinda scares me of a bit.

If be ok with taking the gamble, but this is a great with a lot of talent, and there are a good 4-5 guys who are highly likely to be future all-stars.   Parker looks like a future Carmello, Smart looks like a slightly less athletic D Wade, Exum looks like the next Penny Hardaway, Wiggins could be the next Paul George, Randle could be thenext Antonio McDyess (he was a beast before he got injured).

Then you have Embiid, who there's much uncertainty about.  He could become the next Mutombo or the next David Robinson ... or he could become Handle McGee or Michael Olowokandi or Samuel Dalembert.   I think he's probably thebiggest gamble in the top 6, followed by Wiggins (who could, as others have said, be another Jeff Green).

your serious right?

You can't have Jordans Iq and be able to pass like Embiid does at times

When you see him be indecisive at times , its bc he is still raw.

If Embiid stays another year in college, he would dominate.

Definitely the #1 ranked prospect right now. Only way that changes is, if someone else like wiggins or smart single handedly takes their team to at least the final four
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: SHAQATTACK on January 31, 2014, 11:05:06 AM
Don't flame me too bad here..... ;D

But ,  I think Parker is a bit of Pierce about him.   

He can kill you from anywhere on the court with his offense ......and he is going to become a more efficient shooter and better handler in a few year.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: fairweatherfan on January 31, 2014, 11:07:53 AM
One of the best things Bill Simmons ever wrote about basketball was the absolutely insane likelihood of a player being the next Hakeem.

But if Embiid is even 75% of The Dream, I'm going to be a very happy basketball fan, regardless of which team he ends up on (unless it's the Lakers).

The problems with comparisons like that is they're always taken as a comparison of overall greatness, instead of having similar characteristics.  Like when Tommy said Stiemsma had good timing on his shotblocking like Bill Russell - he was referring to one very small trait but everyone immediately assumed he was saying Stiemsma was as good as Russell. 

Embiid's skillset and game (and biography) is pretty similar to a young Hakeem.  That's good enough for an 19 year old, whether he'll ever approach Olajuwon's greatness or not.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Tr1boy on January 31, 2014, 11:09:57 AM
Don't flame me too bad here..... ;D

But ,  I think Parker is a bit of Pierce about him.   

He can kill you from anywhere on the court with his offense ......and he is going to become a more efficient shooter and better handler in a few year.

Pierce was a good consistent defender and at times a clutch performer . I havent seen show either of these traits yet
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: kg is king on January 31, 2014, 11:11:25 AM
Don't flame me too bad here..... ;D

But ,  I think Parker is a bit of Pierce about him.   

He can kill you from anywhere on the court with his offense ......and he is going to become a more efficient shooter and better handler in a few year.

Pierce was a good consistent defender and at times a clutch performer . I havent seen show either of these traits yet
Pierce was an average defender at best before KG got here.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Donoghus on January 31, 2014, 11:14:11 AM
Don't flame me too bad here..... ;D

But ,  I think Parker is a bit of Pierce about him.   

He can kill you from anywhere on the court with his offense ......and he is going to become a more efficient shooter and better handler in a few year.

On the offensive end, I definitely see similiarities.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Fafnir on January 31, 2014, 11:18:38 AM
Don't flame me too bad here..... ;D

But ,  I think Parker is a bit of Pierce about him.   

He can kill you from anywhere on the court with his offense ......and he is going to become a more efficient shooter and better handler in a few year.

Pierce was a good consistent defender and at times a clutch performer . I havent seen show either of these traits yet
Pierce was an average defender at best before KG got here.
Pierce was a very good to great defensive player as a youngster. He got lazy and bad habits as he became a "star" and focused on scoring. Doc got him playing D eventually and then KG and Thibs put in a system that he thrived in.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: jayhovaone on January 31, 2014, 11:19:14 AM
The percentage to land a Top 3 pick would be where my real interest lies.
That's what I am interested in as well.

I think there has been a clear separation of talent from Wiggins, Embiid and Parker and the rest of the field. 1-3 is all I care about as I am not too excited over the prospects of landing Randle(we already have a young PF), Exum, Smart(we already have a PG that can pass lights out, rebound and can't shoot) or Gordon(IMHO, the biggest chance of a total bust in the top 10 players).

If we don't end up in the top 3 I hope Danny trades the pick.

I agree with the above and mostly the bolded part.

Similar to 2007, I think the draft lottery may dictate the direction Ainge goes.

If the pick falls in the top-3, I could see Ainge being more palpable to moving Rondo and deciding to build around Parker/Wiggins/Embiid.

If the pick falls out of the top-3, I believe (or hope) Ainge trades it and decides to build around Rondo and the acquired star.

I myself do not agree with this because the top six all have chances to be franchise players and truth be told i'm hearing Exum might be the best player out of all of the lottery picks.  Sorry but i take my chances with a top 6 pick this year.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: SHAQATTACK on January 31, 2014, 11:38:46 AM
Don't flame me too bad here..... ;D

But ,  I think Parker is a bit of Pierce about him.   

He can kill you from anywhere on the court with his offense ......and he is going to become a more efficient shooter and better handler in a few year.

On the offensive end, I definitely see similiarities.

Weird , but I watched a lot of Pierce Kansas basketball .....although my memory is fading ...... I think back to those early first  times watching Paul  when I see Parker...... Paul had a better team at Kansas too. 

Was also odd.....is a kept seeing visions of Paul playing in Celtics green as I watch Kansas .......wishful thinking ..LOL .....but it worked out .

I really see nobody built and gifted like James ......the one man army or team......though several,of these kids could be the go to guys on their respective teams and make all stars in 5 years .

I think Randle is a beast and will show off the minute he enters the NBA ......he is built for it .....reminds me of Zbo....but he maybe another Sully or Big Al.......the others draft top picks all have more potential  in the long run.....but,Parker and Randle will be double doubling pretty quick.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Tr1boy on January 31, 2014, 12:20:56 PM
I want wiggins, embiid, grant, smart or if levine declares . We have enough under the rim players and in dire need of athletic players that know how to play.

Recent History has shown that teams with highly athletic players or a top center have won it all. Exceptions are the 90s jazz which made the finals several times without an over the top athletic player or center.

I want to take the safe route and avoid parker who is seriously reminding me of the way melo plays, especially defensively
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: kozlodoev on January 31, 2014, 01:15:51 PM
in dire need of athletic players that know how to play.
Who isn't...
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: slamtheking on January 31, 2014, 01:20:13 PM
Exceptions are the 90s jazz which made the finals several times without an over the top athletic player or center.
Karl Malone would have a bone to pick with you -- the one he could just pull from anywhere in your body.

the dude was ready to compete as a professional body builder and thrived in a fastbreak offense.  I'd consider him pretty athletic.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: NikoZea on January 31, 2014, 01:23:53 PM
in dire need of athletic players that know how to play.
Who isn't...

Thunder maybe? idk thats a tough one.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Snakehead on January 31, 2014, 01:24:02 PM
Exceptions are the 90s jazz which made the finals several times without an over the top athletic player or center.
Karl Malone would have a bone to pick with you -- the one he could just pull from anywhere in your body.

the dude was ready to compete as a professional body builder and thrived in a fastbreak offense.  I'd consider him pretty athletic.

Karl Malone is an incredible athlete that's a crazy thing to say.  To be that big and move that gracefully... well you just hardly ever see it.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: lightspeed5 on January 31, 2014, 01:24:27 PM
Hakeem and embiid were very similar in college. Wow.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Tr1boy on January 31, 2014, 01:30:09 PM
Exceptions are the 90s jazz which made the finals several times without an over the top athletic player or center.
Karl Malone would have a bone to pick with you -- the one he could just pull from anywhere in your body.

the dude was ready to compete as a professional body builder and thrived in a fastbreak offense.  I'd consider him pretty athletic.

Karl Malone is an incredible athlete that's a crazy thing to say.  To be that big and move that gracefully... well you just hardly ever see it.

Malone as conditioned as he was , was not really an above the rim player or as athletic as say hakeem vs fundementally sound

Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: nickagneta on January 31, 2014, 01:35:05 PM
Hakeem and embiid were very similar in college. Wow.
First year.

Then Hakeem spent his summer with Moses Malone and came back for his last two years and was a monster. Not sure Embiid is going to have that type of growth between now and the fall. The next time Hakeem scored less than 14 PPG, had less 11 RPG or blocked less than 2.7 BPG, at any level, was when he was 34-35 years old.

Just do not see Embiid taking that leap forward
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: nickagneta on January 31, 2014, 01:37:25 PM
Exceptions are the 90s jazz which made the finals several times without an over the top athletic player or center.
Karl Malone would have a bone to pick with you -- the one he could just pull from anywhere in your body.

the dude was ready to compete as a professional body builder and thrived in a fastbreak offense.  I'd consider him pretty athletic.

Karl Malone is an incredible athlete that's a crazy thing to say.  To be that big and move that gracefully... well you just hardly ever see it.

Malone as conditioned as he was , was not really an above the rim player or as athletic as say hakeem vs fundementally sound
You don't have to be a high jumper to be considered athletic. To think Malone wasn't a freak athlete is just strange. Watched Malone a ton and he was the best athlete on the court 90% of the time when he played.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Tr1boy on January 31, 2014, 01:42:02 PM
Exceptions are the 90s jazz which made the finals several times without an over the top athletic player or center.
Karl Malone would have a bone to pick with you -- the one he could just pull from anywhere in your body.

the dude was ready to compete as a professional body builder and thrived in a fastbreak offense.  I'd consider him pretty athletic.

Karl Malone is an incredible athlete that's a crazy thing to say.  To be that big and move that gracefully... well you just hardly ever see it.

Malone as conditioned as he was , was not really an above the rim player or as athletic as say hakeem vs fundementally sound
You don't have to be a high jumper to be considered athletic. To think Malone wasn't a freak athlete is just strange. Watched Malone a ton and he was the best athlete on the court 90% of the time when he played.

He is not dwade, lebron athletic.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: nickagneta on January 31, 2014, 01:46:37 PM
Exceptions are the 90s jazz which made the finals several times without an over the top athletic player or center.
Karl Malone would have a bone to pick with you -- the one he could just pull from anywhere in your body.

the dude was ready to compete as a professional body builder and thrived in a fastbreak offense.  I'd consider him pretty athletic.

Karl Malone is an incredible athlete that's a crazy thing to say.  To be that big and move that gracefully... well you just hardly ever see it.

Malone as conditioned as he was , was not really an above the rim player or as athletic as say hakeem vs fundementally sound
You don't have to be a high jumper to be considered athletic. To think Malone wasn't a freak athlete is just strange. Watched Malone a ton and he was the best athlete on the court 90% of the time when he played.

He is not dwade, lebron athletic.
Yes, he was. He just was not a high flyer.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Donoghus on January 31, 2014, 01:47:15 PM
Exceptions are the 90s jazz which made the finals several times without an over the top athletic player or center.
Karl Malone would have a bone to pick with you -- the one he could just pull from anywhere in your body.

the dude was ready to compete as a professional body builder and thrived in a fastbreak offense.  I'd consider him pretty athletic.

Karl Malone is an incredible athlete that's a crazy thing to say.  To be that big and move that gracefully... well you just hardly ever see it.

Malone as conditioned as he was , was not really an above the rim player or as athletic as say hakeem vs fundementally sound
You don't have to be a high jumper to be considered athletic. To think Malone wasn't a freak athlete is just strange. Watched Malone a ton and he was the best athlete on the court 90% of the time when he played.

Agreed.  I'm not sure where that notion comes from, Malone was a heckuva of an athlete for someone his build.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: indeedproceed on January 31, 2014, 01:48:09 PM
Exceptions are the 90s jazz which made the finals several times without an over the top athletic player or center.
Karl Malone would have a bone to pick with you -- the one he could just pull from anywhere in your body.

the dude was ready to compete as a professional body builder and thrived in a fastbreak offense.  I'd consider him pretty athletic.

Karl Malone is an incredible athlete that's a crazy thing to say.  To be that big and move that gracefully... well you just hardly ever see it.

Malone as conditioned as he was , was not really an above the rim player or as athletic as say hakeem vs fundementally sound
You don't have to be a high jumper to be considered athletic. To think Malone wasn't a freak athlete is just strange. Watched Malone a ton and he was the best athlete on the court 90% of the time when he played.

He is not dwade, lebron athletic.

DO you know the player whose body type LeBron is most often compared to?

(http://i1.ytimg.com/vi/QPWb1YtfPis/hqdefault.jpg)
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: nickagneta on January 31, 2014, 01:51:23 PM
Some people don't realize this but Karl Malone played at about the same size as Lebron and was easily one of the quickest, fastest, best cardio conditioned players his size in the league back then. And strong as an ox without the Lebron need to complain about contact and rough play.

He just wasn't a high flying jumper
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Tr1boy on January 31, 2014, 01:52:09 PM
Lets skip this argument bc in the end it strengthens my pt anyways. We need athleticism plus skill rather than what parker or say mcdermott brings to the table
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: nickagneta on January 31, 2014, 01:54:53 PM
Lets skip this argument bc in the end it strengthens my pt anyways. We need athleticism plus skill rather than what parker or say mcdermott brings to the table
You are doing to Parker the same exact thing youy just did with Malone.

Because Parker can't jump high or because he doesn't go above the rim a lot you are saying he isn't athletic. That's just inaccurate. Parker is an excellent athlete with top notch skill.

He just isn't a high flyer.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Donoghus on January 31, 2014, 01:58:01 PM
Lets skip this argument bc in the end it strengthens my pt anyways. We need athleticism plus skill rather than what parker or say mcdermott brings to the table

I'm failing to see how any of this is strengthening your point but I'll digress....
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: fantankerous on January 31, 2014, 02:05:03 PM
Lets skip this argument bc in the end it strengthens my pt anyways. We need athleticism plus skill rather than what parker or say mcdermott brings to the table

Yes, but your point is to spout nonsense and this argument is introducing reason to expose said nonsense.  So I'm sure you'd like to skip it.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: D.o.s. on January 31, 2014, 02:07:25 PM
I think the idea that anyone who can play in the NBA can be "not athletic" is hilarious.

When you're at that point, there is only "more athletic" or "less athletic". And none of that really has to do with leaping ability.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: fairweatherfan on January 31, 2014, 02:11:14 PM
I'm just saying guys we'll never win a chip with a below-the-rim guy like McHale next to another poor athlete in Bird.  We need Dr. Dunkenstein Darrell Griffith if we ever hope to contend.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: clover on January 31, 2014, 02:25:35 PM
Lets skip this argument bc in the end it strengthens my pt anyways. We need athleticism plus skill rather than what parker or say mcdermott brings to the table
You are doing to Parker the same exact thing youy just did with Malone.

Because Parker can't jump high or because he doesn't go above the rim a lot you are saying he isn't athletic. That's just inaccurate. Parker is an excellent athlete with top notch skill.

He just isn't a high flyer.

Yeah, I guess that Pierce guy was never all that good either...
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Donoghus on January 31, 2014, 02:28:23 PM
Lets skip this argument bc in the end it strengthens my pt anyways. We need athleticism plus skill rather than what parker or say mcdermott brings to the table
You are doing to Parker the same exact thing youy just did with Malone.

Because Parker can't jump high or because he doesn't go above the rim a lot you are saying he isn't athletic. That's just inaccurate. Parker is an excellent athlete with top notch skill.

He just isn't a high flyer.

Yeah, I guess that Pierce guy was never all that good either...

But the high flying jumper Gerald Green on the other hand.....
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Tr1boy on January 31, 2014, 02:42:36 PM
We got a chance at the top 5. We dont have to choose pierce . We can choose a kg

As ppl are going off topic bringing up gerald green or deandre jordan into this

The pt I made was that in recent history teams with a legit big player or over the top athletic players have won it all.

No reason not try to try to follow this formula. Starting with hopefully our 2014 key piece draft pick
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: CFAN38 on January 31, 2014, 03:10:36 PM
To add to the argument about parkers athleticism. Having watched alot of his games this year he seems to have no problem finishing around the rim. It isn't like he is a below the rim forward who gets blocked alot. He finishes very well around the rim. Who cares if never wins a dunk contest. Who here would take Vince Carter over Paul Pierce?
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Tr1boy on January 31, 2014, 03:43:51 PM
To add to the argument about parkers athleticism. Having watched alot of his games this year he seems to have no problem finishing around the rim. It isn't like he is a below the rim forward who gets blocked alot. He finishes very well around the rim. Who cares if never wins a dunk contest. Who here would take Vince Carter over Paul Pierce?

The lack of elite athleticism and quickness is causing parker issues on defense. At times he cant even drive to the basket bc his man is right on him

When you are blessed with athletic abilities you are not only a little more everywhere on the court but also can make those difficult shots with somebody on you like glue. I havent seen parker excel in these situations vs wiggins or embiid.

Ppl seem to frequently mention that paul pierce did it. Well how many players like pierce are there in the nba? Its the durants , george etc that are ones normally the ones making it happen on a consistent basis

Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Tr1boy on January 31, 2014, 03:44:52 PM
To add to the argument about parkers athleticism. Having watched alot of his games this year he seems to have no problem finishing around the rim. It isn't like he is a below the rim forward who gets blocked alot. He finishes very well around the rim. Who cares if never wins a dunk contest. Who here would take Vince Carter over Paul Pierce?

I would take a vince carter at peak vs pierce at peak. Its not even a question imo
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: rondohondo on January 31, 2014, 03:55:11 PM
To add to the argument about parkers athleticism. Having watched alot of his games this year he seems to have no problem finishing around the rim. It isn't like he is a below the rim forward who gets blocked alot. He finishes very well around the rim. Who cares if never wins a dunk contest. Who here would take Vince Carter over Paul Pierce?

The lack of elite athleticism and quickness is causing parker issues on defense. At times he cant even drive to the basket bc his man is right on him

When you are blessed with athletic abilities you are not only a little more everywhere on the court but also can make those difficult shots with somebody on you like glue. I havent seen parker excel in these situations vs wiggins or embiid.

Ppl seem to frequently mention that paul pierce did it. Well how many players like pierce are there in the nba? Its the durants , george etc that are ones normally the ones making it happen on a consistent basis
I have seen him score in lots of ways, including being tightly guarded. He only played Wiggins one time, are you really going to base his potential on one game? (he scored in the 20's that game by the way)
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Tr1boy on January 31, 2014, 03:57:33 PM
To add to the argument about parkers athleticism. Having watched alot of his games this year he seems to have no problem finishing around the rim. It isn't like he is a below the rim forward who gets blocked alot. He finishes very well around the rim. Who cares if never wins a dunk contest. Who here would take Vince Carter over Paul Pierce?

The lack of elite athleticism and quickness is causing parker issues on defense. At times he cant even drive to the basket bc his man is right on him

When you are blessed with athletic abilities you are not only a little more everywhere on the court but also can make those difficult shots with somebody on you like glue. I havent seen parker excel in these situations vs wiggins or embiid.

Ppl seem to frequently mention that paul pierce did it. Well how many players like pierce are there in the nba? Its the durants , george etc that are ones normally the ones making it happen on a consistent basis
I have seen him score in lots of ways, including being tightly guarded. He only played Wiggins one time, are you really going to base his potential on one game? (he scored in the 20's that game by the way)

I have seen parker defer the ball to other guys on the team like hood in tight situations.

His step back jumper is good. But at crucial situations or tightly guarded, he is stuck
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: The Rondo Show on January 31, 2014, 04:08:16 PM
Anything top 4 would be just fine with me
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Tr1boy on January 31, 2014, 04:14:13 PM
I've only seen the highlight reels and scouting vids, so take this with a grain of salt.  To me, Grant looks like Shawn Kemp.  Incredibly explosive, but raw.  We've seen a lot of these hyper-athletic guys come and go in the last 10 years.

Take a look at this and tell me if Grant is as raw as you think. It's not all about spetacular dunks/blocks.  Once he refines his game, he is going to be real good

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQFSt4LOs3c

(time on youtube)
9:14 Grant makes a long jump shot
13:40 two dribble layup in traffic (going to be hard to defend)
15:41 defensive rebound
18:30 two dribble layup attempt, but fouled.
22:22 again fouled
23:29 block shot
25:43 drive and pass
29:00 baseline jumper.

Doesn't play over his head (doesn't turnover the ball much) and doesn't get enough touches.  He is not going to be easy to stop one on one once he hones his skills. Jumps so quickly off the ground, has an oustanding first step and length

Nick I would like to hear your comment about the plays above. Do you not agree grant has a developing perimeter game? He is not leon powe thats for sure
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: nickagneta on January 31, 2014, 04:31:53 PM
I've only seen the highlight reels and scouting vids, so take this with a grain of salt.  To me, Grant looks like Shawn Kemp.  Incredibly explosive, but raw.  We've seen a lot of these hyper-athletic guys come and go in the last 10 years.

Take a look at this and tell me if Grant is as raw as you think. It's not all about spetacular dunks/blocks.  Once he refines his game, he is going to be real good

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQFSt4LOs3c

(time on youtube)
9:14 Grant makes a long jump shot
13:40 two dribble layup in traffic (going to be hard to defend)
15:41 defensive rebound
18:30 two dribble layup attempt, but fouled.
22:22 again fouled
23:29 block shot
25:43 drive and pass
29:00 baseline jumper.

Doesn't play over his head (doesn't turnover the ball much) and doesn't get enough touches.  He is not going to be easy to stop one on one once he hones his skills. Jumps so quickly off the ground, has an oustanding first step and length

Nick I would like to hear your comment about the plays above. Do you not agree grant has a developing perimeter game? He is not leon powe thats for sure
No I don't agree with that. He hit one jumper. He missed two others in that game.

His balance on his shot leans a bit backward and his shot is all over the place because his arms tend to go up too much when shooting instead of out a bit more. Watch where his release point is. That shot needs a lot of work.

He is most effective playing in the paint but he only has the size to be a SF in the pros. He's crazy athletic and comes from great genes but I just don't see him being a top pick this year. He will wow at the draft combine on the physical skills part but his game is lacking because he is really too small and thin for the position he is best suited to play.

If he had three point range and could consistently hit that 15-18 shot, then he would be a top 5-15 player to be drafted but IMHO, without those things, he falls into the early 20s.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: LilRip on January 31, 2014, 04:39:16 PM
I've only seen the highlight reels and scouting vids, so take this with a grain of salt.  To me, Grant looks like Shawn Kemp.  Incredibly explosive, but raw.  We've seen a lot of these hyper-athletic guys come and go in the last 10 years.

Take a look at this and tell me if Grant is as raw as you think. It's not all about spetacular dunks/blocks.  Once he refines his game, he is going to be real good

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQFSt4LOs3c

(time on youtube)
9:14 Grant makes a long jump shot
13:40 two dribble layup in traffic (going to be hard to defend)
15:41 defensive rebound
18:30 two dribble layup attempt, but fouled.
22:22 again fouled
23:29 block shot
25:43 drive and pass
29:00 baseline jumper.

Doesn't play over his head (doesn't turnover the ball much) and doesn't get enough touches.  He is not going to be easy to stop one on one once he hones his skills. Jumps so quickly off the ground, has an oustanding first step and length

Nick I would like to hear your comment about the plays above. Do you not agree grant has a developing perimeter game? He is not leon powe thats for sure

Just curious, would you take Grant over Parker?

It's strange how you're harping about athleticism and above the rim play but just last offseason, you were one of the biggest KO supporters out there, saying practically the opposite of what you're saying on this thread.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: slamtheking on February 05, 2014, 08:46:00 AM
tonight's game with Philly has a significant impact --> we lose, we tie Philly with the 3rd worst record and I'm not sure if there's tiebreakers used (or a coin flip) but Philly beats us in the case of tiebreakers.

If we win, we could vault past 4 other teams a half game ahead of us and end up with the 8th worst record.

Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: hwangjini_1 on February 05, 2014, 08:53:39 AM
tonight's game with Philly has a significant impact --> we lose, we tie Philly with the 3rd worst record and I'm not sure if there's tiebreakers used (or a coin flip) but Philly beats us in the case of tiebreakers.

If we win, we could vault past 4 other teams a half game ahead of us and end up with the 8th worst record.
well, being 8th worse sounds craptastic to me. gooooooo celtics...for 3 and 1/2 quarters. then snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.  :P

geez, sometimes this season makes it hard to know how to root for the celtics.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: saltlover on February 05, 2014, 09:22:17 AM
tonight's game with Philly has a significant impact --> we lose, we tie Philly with the 3rd worst record and I'm not sure if there's tiebreakers used (or a coin flip) but Philly beats us in the case of tiebreakers.

If we win, we could vault past 4 other teams a half game ahead of us and end up with the 8th worst record.

If there's a tie for teams in the lottery, we split equally the lottery balls of the respective slots (so if we tied Philly for third-worst, we'd split the 156 balls from finishing third and the 119 from finishing fourth (275 total).  You'll notice that's an odd number, so there would be a coin flip to determine who received the extra chance.  The coin flip also determines who would pick earlier in the event that neither team won the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd picks in the lottery.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: droopdog7 on February 05, 2014, 01:01:27 PM
tonight's game with Philly has a significant impact --> we lose, we tie Philly with the 3rd worst record and I'm not sure if there's tiebreakers used (or a coin flip) but Philly beats us in the case of tiebreakers.

If we win, we could vault past 4 other teams a half game ahead of us and end up with the 8th worst record.
Every game has the same impact, except of course when playing teams we are competing against.  But there is still a long way.
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: slamtheking on February 05, 2014, 01:17:01 PM
tonight's game with Philly has a significant impact --> we lose, we tie Philly with the 3rd worst record and I'm not sure if there's tiebreakers used (or a coin flip) but Philly beats us in the case of tiebreakers.

If we win, we could vault past 4 other teams a half game ahead of us and end up with the 8th worst record.

If there's a tie for teams in the lottery, we split equally the lottery balls of the respective slots (so if we tied Philly for third-worst, we'd split the 156 balls from finishing third and the 119 from finishing fourth (275 total).  You'll notice that's an odd number, so there would be a coin flip to determine who received the extra chance.  The coin flip also determines who would pick earlier in the event that neither team won the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd picks in the lottery.
thanks for the clarification
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: celticmania on February 05, 2014, 01:27:44 PM
I'd be happy wIth Embiid, Parker, Exum, and Wiggins... Anyone other than those four players Will be disappointing. I think these are the 4 perennial all stars in the draft. Smart and Randle aren't going to bee that good and Vonleh is too raw. The draft has a very strong top 4 and after that the talent level is very even from 5-14 and 15-30. Very deep draft but only have 4 guys that have a good chance of becoming potential all stars
Title: Re: 15.6% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: slamtheking on February 06, 2014, 09:25:01 AM
now in the 6th spot after the Philly win and could be in 8th if we beat Sacramento Friday night. 

starting to look like spots 2-10 are going to be a dogfight (or I guess with teams this bad, a pillow fight) jockeying for position where even a 3-game winning streak can put a team at the tail end of the draft positioning.
Title: Re: 6.3% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: PhoSita on February 06, 2014, 09:58:04 AM
As I've said in the past, a top 5 pick would be awesome, but I'll be happy with a top 10 pick.

There are plenty of talented players in this draft and we already have some decent talent on the team. A top 5 pick could get us a potential MVP candidate but I think Danny can find an All-Star in the top 10.
Title: Re: 6.3% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: BleedGreen1989 on February 06, 2014, 10:00:58 AM
As I've said in the past, a top 5 pick would be awesome, but I'll be happy with a top 10 pick.

There are plenty of talented players in this draft and we already have some decent talent on the team. A top 5 pick could get us a potential MVP candidate but I think Danny can find an All-Star in the top 10.

This is the thread of overreaction and hyperbole statements.

Get outta her with that realistic rationale thinking Pho.
Title: Re: 6.3% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Tr1boy on February 06, 2014, 07:24:49 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVN7L0ik4j0

If we get 7-12 i hope danny considers Grant.

Kid has so much upside
Title: Re: 6.3% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Timdawgg on February 06, 2014, 07:33:40 PM
Grant reminds me of Jeff Green....
Title: Re: 6.3% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Tr1boy on February 06, 2014, 08:04:56 PM
Quote
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVN7L0ik4j0
Grant reminds me of Jeff Green....

Grants is nothing like Green. The guy is fearless and physical

Green is one soft player. One of the softest i've seen in the league
Title: Re: 6.3% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Tr1boy on February 07, 2014, 11:55:27 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NdFEbF_PvWY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fF8DVz1udh8

If we trade or don't resign AB and we fall out of picking 1-6 , what do you guys think about picking Garry Harris?
Title: Re: 6.3% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: PhoSita on February 08, 2014, 12:01:53 AM
Somebody calculate our chances of getting a top 5 pick right now. 

The worst we can do at the moment is still 10th, I believe, and the chances of that are pretty remote.
Title: Re: 6.3% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Boris Badenov on February 08, 2014, 12:50:30 AM
Somebody calculate our chances of getting a top 5 pick right now. 

The worst we can do at the moment is still 10th, I believe, and the chances of that are pretty remote.

Once we move out of the top 5, our chances of getting a top 5 pick are exactly the same as our chances of getting a top 3 pick.

This is because in any slot outside the top 5, you either:
(a) get a top 3 pick
(b) draft in your lottery slot or one of the next three (because someone behind you moves into the top 3)

We are currently in the 7th slot, with a 15% chance at a top 3 pick. Else, we end up with the 7th (60%), 8th (23%), 9th (2%) or 10th (minuscule).

There is a BIG loss in moving from the 5th slot to one of the next few slots, in terms of chances at getting a top 5 pick. In 5th, you have a 55% chance at a top 5 pick. In 6th, it drops to 21%.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: lightspeed5 on March 01, 2014, 10:32:32 PM
chances have been improving. the difference between now and a month ago is that the lakers are now on our trail with 8.8% to win.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: hwangjini_1 on March 01, 2014, 10:43:37 PM
chances have been improving. the difference between now and a month ago is that the lakers are now on our trail with 8.8% to win.
true, but what is also encouraging is that the celtics have a 37.8% chance of landing a top 3 pick.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: hpantazo on March 01, 2014, 10:46:14 PM
chances have been improving. the difference between now and a month ago is that the lakers are now on our trail with 8.8% to win.
true, but what is also encouraging is that the celtics have a 37.8% chance of landing a top 3 pick.

after our strong showing against the Pacers tonight I'm a bit worried. Hopefully our tanking stays on course and we end up firmly in a top 5 spot.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: obnoxiousmime on March 01, 2014, 11:04:27 PM
If current rosters/lineups stay the same it will be tough to outtank the Lakers. They are in a tougher conference and are generally less competitive in their games than the Celtics.

The Lakers do have a stretch in March where they face the Magic and Knicks at home and the Bucks on the road. If they manage to win all 3 and the Celtics don't win too many of their dates against the Sixers (2 more), Pistons (2 more) or Knicks/Cavs/Hawks/Pelicans (one each) then there's a chance. The Celtics really can't afford occasionally winning against the mediocre teams though (e.g. Nets, Raptors, Bulls, Wizards).

The two Sixers games are the worst. The way they're tanking those games look like automatic wins for Boston.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: hpantazo on March 01, 2014, 11:44:53 PM
It is not a coincidence that the Celtics, Lakers, and Sixers are all tanking this year. This draft is totally worth tanking hard for. The only oddity is that the Knicks are managing to tank hard without a draft pick.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: footey on March 02, 2014, 12:31:11 AM
It is not a coincidence that the Celtics, Lakers, and Sixers are all tanking this year. This draft is totally worth tanking hard for. The only oddity is that the Knicks are managing to tank hard without a draft pick.

Just shows how incompetent the Knicks are. 
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Smokeeye123 on March 02, 2014, 12:33:18 AM
Sac needs to lose some games. Our showing afaisnt the pacers has me worried...and this is without wallace bradley and olynyk...key is staying in the top 5 since the 4th and 5th spots have almost identical lottery percentages
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Smokeeye123 on March 04, 2014, 03:56:34 PM
Lakers somehow beat the trailblazers! Kings beat the pelicans! We actually have some breathing room...also i love how the nuggets have the knicks pick which is now fifth i believe. What a joke of a franchise...
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: MBunge on March 04, 2014, 04:32:25 PM
It is not a coincidence that the Celtics, Lakers, and Sixers are all tanking this year. This draft is totally worth tanking hard for. The only oddity is that the Knicks are managing to tank hard without a draft pick.

Boston and LA are not tanking.  If they were, Gasol and Bass would absolutely have been traded away.  I also don't think the trade of KG and Pierce can be considered tanking because of how much Boston got back.  The Lakers and Celtics just suck this season.  Philly, however, started tanking back at the 2013 draft and they've just kept on doing it.

Mike
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: j804 on March 04, 2014, 04:39:06 PM
It is not a coincidence that the Celtics, Lakers, and Sixers are all tanking this year. This draft is totally worth tanking hard for. The only oddity is that the Knicks are managing to tank hard without a draft pick.

Boston and LA are not tanking.  If they were, Gasol and Bass would absolutely have been traded away.  I also don't think the trade of KG and Pierce can be considered tanking because of how much Boston got back.  The Lakers and Celtics just suck this season.  Philly, however, started tanking back at the 2013 draft and they've just kept on doing it.

Mike
and I hope they aren't rewarded for it, come on Silver lets get the C's back to prominence again :D
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Smokeeye123 on March 04, 2014, 06:34:40 PM
It is not a coincidence that the Celtics, Lakers, and Sixers are all tanking this year. This draft is totally worth tanking hard for. The only oddity is that the Knicks are managing to tank hard without a draft pick.

Boston and LA are not tanking.  If they were, Gasol and Bass would absolutely have been traded away.  I also don't think the trade of KG and Pierce can be considered tanking because of how much Boston got back.  The Lakers and Celtics just suck this season.  Philly, however, started tanking back at the 2013 draft and they've just kept on doing it.

Mike

The lakers are keeping Kobe and nash out the rest of the season and traded Blake. Only reason Pau is still there is because no team could feasibly take on his massive contact. I think both the Celtics and Lakers are trying to win, they were just built to lose this season by their GM...Which I still consider tanking :P
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: hwangjini_1 on March 04, 2014, 07:39:35 PM
If current rosters/lineups stay the same it will be tough to outtank the Lakers. They are in a tougher conference and are generally less competitive in their games than the Celtics.

The Lakers do have a stretch in March where they face the Magic and Knicks at home and the Bucks on the road. If they manage to win all 3 and the Celtics don't win too many of their dates against the Sixers (2 more), Pistons (2 more) or Knicks/Cavs/Hawks/Pelicans (one each) then there's a chance. The Celtics really can't afford occasionally winning against the mediocre teams though (e.g. Nets, Raptors, Bulls, Wizards).

The two Sixers games are the worst. The way they're tanking those games look like automatic wins for Boston.
agreed. philly is seriously trying to run the board and finish the season with zero more wins. and honestly, they may do it. they are beyond putrid right now. i think even the most ardent philly tanker-fans are embarrassed at this point.

the best the celtics can really hope for is probably to be where they are right now, 4th worst place.

the team does not need to pick up 2-3 meaningless wins against mediocre teams. last time i checked only 1 game separates the celtics from 4 other teams just behind them. it will be a photo finish for the the #4 slot.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Smokeeye123 on March 04, 2014, 08:07:26 PM
If current rosters/lineups stay the same it will be tough to outtank the Lakers. They are in a tougher conference and are generally less competitive in their games than the Celtics.

The Lakers do have a stretch in March where they face the Magic and Knicks at home and the Bucks on the road. If they manage to win all 3 and the Celtics don't win too many of their dates against the Sixers (2 more), Pistons (2 more) or Knicks/Cavs/Hawks/Pelicans (one each) then there's a chance. The Celtics really can't afford occasionally winning against the mediocre teams though (e.g. Nets, Raptors, Bulls, Wizards).

The two Sixers games are the worst. The way they're tanking those games look like automatic wins for Boston.
agreed. philly is seriously trying to run the board and finish the season with zero more wins. and honestly, they may do it. they are beyond putrid right now. i think even the most ardent philly tanker-fans are embarrassed at this point.

the best the celtics can really hope for is probably to be where they are right now, 4th worst place.

the team does not need to pick up 2-3 meaningless wins against mediocre teams. last time i checked only 1 game separates the celtics from 4 other teams just behind them. it will be a photo finish for the the #4 slot.

I could be wrong but I believe almost all the other teams own the tiebreakers against us so it's almost like 1 and a half. Meaning if we tied with them record wise we'd still be ahead in the lottery.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Fafnir on March 05, 2014, 09:20:38 AM
Tie-breakers don't matter in the lottery.

What happens is the ping pong balls are split evenly among the teams tied with a coin flip just determining who gets the leftover ping-pong ball(s) if the total sum being divided among tied teams has a remainder.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: saltlover on March 05, 2014, 10:22:54 AM
Tie-breakers don't matter in the lottery.

What happens is the ping pong balls are split evenly among the teams tied with a coin flip just determining who gets the leftover ping-pong ball(s) if the total sum being divided among tied teams has a remainder.

Also, I believe that coin flip decides who picks first in the event that neither team finishes in the top 3 of the lottery.  (Some coin flip does -- don't know if they only flip once, or flip twice).
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Fafnir on March 05, 2014, 10:29:20 AM
Tie-breakers don't matter in the lottery.

What happens is the ping pong balls are split evenly among the teams tied with a coin flip just determining who gets the leftover ping-pong ball(s) if the total sum being divided among tied teams has a remainder.

Also, I believe that coin flip decides who picks first in the event that neither team finishes in the top 3 of the lottery.  (Some coin flip does -- don't know if they only flip once, or flip twice).
Yup that's the reason the coin flip is a big deal, the extra ping pong ball doesn't matter much at all. But the extra slot does.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: CoachBo on March 05, 2014, 10:42:38 AM
Keep those losses coming, boys.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: slamtheking on March 05, 2014, 10:56:34 AM
starting to think #5 is in our future.  Orlando is playing better and could very well pass us for a better record but the Lakers and Knicks are playing so poorly they could very well end up with worse records than us
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: apc on March 05, 2014, 11:41:13 AM
I was wondering yesterday if a team with very low odds ever got the first pick. I looked it up and it was the Magic in 93.
They got the first pick with 1 in 66 chances (1.5%)!

hope for the best for us!!!
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: TwinTower14 on March 05, 2014, 11:42:12 AM
I was wondering yesterday if a team with very low odds ever got the first pick. I looked it up and it was the Magic in 93.
They got the first pick with 1 in 66 chances (1.5%)!

hope for the best for us!!!

Bulls with Rose - I believe they had the 8th worst record? I could be wrong, but I thought I read that somewhere...
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: D.o.s. on March 05, 2014, 12:01:24 PM
I was wondering yesterday if a team with very low odds ever got the first pick. I looked it up and it was the Magic in 93.
They got the first pick with 1 in 66 chances (1.5%)!

hope for the best for us!!!

Bulls with Rose - I believe they had the 8th worst record? I could be wrong, but I thought I read that somewhere...

9th. Chicago had a 1.7% chance of picking first.
http://sports.espn.go.com/chicago/nba/columns/story?id=6568064
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: PhoSita on March 05, 2014, 02:40:14 PM
starting to think #5 is in our future.  Orlando is playing better and could very well pass us for a better record but the Lakers and Knicks are playing so poorly they could very well end up with worse records than us

I'd be okay with #5, as long as we get Exum, Smart, or Vonleh rather than Randle.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Mr October on March 05, 2014, 10:30:41 PM
Tankers rejoice! Another loss tonight be the Celtics, who have only won 5 games against winning teams all season.

The knicks won against the wolves. The kings beat the Bucks. We are finally starting to get some seperation. That's 3 tank wins in one night!

Now we need the lakers to channel their inner Kobe and Mamba the Clippers off the floor tomorrow night! yeah... That's not happening.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Tr1boy on March 05, 2014, 11:21:42 PM
Parkers Duke lost to an unseeded Wake Forest tonight.

Parker had a decent game shooting 7-11, 19 pts, 10 rebounds but another so so defensive game.  Also i'am not sure about his capabilities in the clutch. Tonight was a perfect game for him to take over and lead a comeback.  For a prospect like him, i have seen very few clutch performances so far

TJ Warren has been much more clutch this season
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: RJ87 on March 05, 2014, 11:30:02 PM
Parkers Duke lost to an unseeded Wake Forest tonight.

Parker had a decent game shooting 7-11, 19 pts, 10 rebounds but another so so defensive game.  Also i'am not sure about his capabilities in the clutch. Tonight was a perfect game for him to take over and lead a comeback.  For a prospect like him, i have seen very few clutch performances so far

TJ Warren has been much more clutch this season

7-11 is a "decent" shooting game? I guess 11-11 would've been more impressive....

TJ Warren is having a nice Linsanity-like run but if a team does draft him before the 20's, they're reaching.

Careful there triboy, your bias is showing.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Tr1boy on March 05, 2014, 11:43:52 PM
Parkers Duke lost to an unseeded Wake Forest tonight.

Parker had a decent game shooting 7-11, 19 pts, 10 rebounds but another so so defensive game.  Also i'am not sure about his capabilities in the clutch. Tonight was a perfect game for him to take over and lead a comeback.  For a prospect like him, i have seen very few clutch performances so far

TJ Warren has been much more clutch this season

7-11 is a "decent" shooting game? I guess 11-11 would've been more impressive....

TJ Warren is having a nice Linsanity-like run but if a team does draft him before the 20's, they're reaching.

Careful there triboy, your bias is showing.

Naw I think your the bias one. And like many over hyping this kid. A super prospect should be able to carry his team over an unseeded team. At least a few times

List some games this season where he literally carried his team onto a win.

This is why Danny is not excited. At least wiggins has had a few clutch games vs duke as one of them and embiids excuse is that he is a center and is still new to the game. Whats parkers excuse?
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: RJ87 on March 05, 2014, 11:52:41 PM
Parkers Duke lost to an unseeded Wake Forest tonight.

Parker had a decent game shooting 7-11, 19 pts, 10 rebounds but another so so defensive game.  Also i'am not sure about his capabilities in the clutch. Tonight was a perfect game for him to take over and lead a comeback.  For a prospect like him, i have seen very few clutch performances so far

TJ Warren has been much more clutch this season

7-11 is a "decent" shooting game? I guess 11-11 would've been more impressive....

TJ Warren is having a nice Linsanity-like run but if a team does draft him before the 20's, they're reaching.

Careful there triboy, your bias is showing.

Naw I think your the bias one. And like many over hyping this kid. A super prospect should be able to carry his team over an unseeded team. At least a few times

List some games this season where he literally carried his team onto a win.

This is why Danny is not excited. At least wiggins has had a few clutch games vs duke as one of them and embiids excuse is that he is a center and is still new to the game. Whats parkers excuse?

A couple of weeks ago against Syracuse immediately comes to mind, I don't have his exact stat line but he shook off a rough start and became a beast down the stretch of that game.

Tonight,  Coach K was having health issues in the second half - I can forgive the team for being a bit distracted.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: chambers on March 06, 2014, 02:26:50 AM
Parkers Duke lost to an unseeded Wake Forest tonight.

Parker had a decent game shooting 7-11, 19 pts, 10 rebounds but another so so defensive game.  Also i'am not sure about his capabilities in the clutch. Tonight was a perfect game for him to take over and lead a comeback.  For a prospect like him, i have seen very few clutch performances so far

TJ Warren has been much more clutch this season

7-11 is a "decent" shooting game? I guess 11-11 would've been more impressive....

TJ Warren is having a nice Linsanity-like run but if a team does draft him before the 20's, they're reaching.

Careful there triboy, your bias is showing.

Naw I think your the bias one. And like many over hyping this kid. A super prospect should be able to carry his team over an unseeded team. At least a few times

List some games this season where he literally carried his team onto a win.

This is why Danny is not excited. At least wiggins has had a few clutch games vs duke as one of them and embiids excuse is that he is a center and is still new to the game. Whats parkers excuse?

College basketball is pretty tough for players that get their team going by breaking defenders down off the dribble because of the zone.
Parker is a far superior 1v1 player and his game translates to 'superstar' much more than TJ Warren.
He's a better shooter, has better footwork, and is two years younger.
He's carried that Duke team multiple times this season as a freshman. Wiggins is on a team of 'college stars' so he should be destroying his opponents more often than not.
TJ Warren is great, if I had a knock on him it's his shooting form and his slow release might hurt him being defended by NBA length. Could be like Harrison Barnes, with slightly less athleticism but better shooting touch and BBall IQ.

Just to add re. Parker...I don't know where you got the 'Danny's not interested' in Parker thing from but he's been interested in Parker since he was 14 years old, sitting next to his mom in multiple games.
Hard to see him taking anyone over Parker other than Embid.
We can use our Clippers pick on someone like Warren if they're the best player available at the late teens pick from the Nets.
Personally Id like Danny to trade the Brooklyn pick with a team around the 20-24 spot who'll give us a 2nd rounder so we can roll the dice on Chris Walker.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: cman88 on March 06, 2014, 03:27:28 PM
people keep acting like the Bucks/76ers are a sure fire chance to get the #1 pick...hasnt it been years since the team with the worst record won the draft lottery?

we missed out on Duncan/durant(I cant bring myself to say oden)...maybe 3rd times the charm?
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Evantime34 on March 06, 2014, 03:40:01 PM
people keep acting like the Bucks/76ers are a sure fire chance to get the #1 pick...hasnt it been years since the team with the worst record won the draft lottery?

we missed out on Duncan/durant(I cant bring myself to say oden)...maybe 3rd times the charm?
In the Duncan draft he was the only prize, in the Oden/Durant year there were two players considered elite in this year's version there are 3 players who are considered elite. So at least this year there is a greater chance to end up with one of the elite guys..
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: PaulPierce34G on March 06, 2014, 03:55:25 PM
Just a question...Say we end up with the 4th worst record, do we have a greater chance of moving up in the draft or moving down and receiving a worse pick?  Also, under the same scenario (4th worst record), what is the worst possible lotto pick we could end up with, should we slide down?
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Fafnir on March 06, 2014, 04:03:33 PM
Just a question...Say we end up with the 4th worst record, do we have a greater chance of moving up in the draft or moving down and receiving a worse pick?  Also, under the same scenario (4th worst record), what is the worst possible lotto pick we could end up with, should we slide down?
There is a greater chance we slide down.

37.8% chance to move up into one of the top 3
52.3% chance to move down 1 to 3 slots
 9.9% chance to stay in the 4th slot
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: LooseCannon on March 06, 2014, 04:52:05 PM
The worst that a team with the 4th-worst record can do is the 7th pick.  It breaks down like this (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery#Process):

11.9% - 1st
12.6% - 2nd
13.3% - 3rd
9.9% - 4th
35.1% - 5th
16.0% 6th
1.2% 7th
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Moranis on March 06, 2014, 05:05:05 PM
The worst that a team with the 4th-worst record can do is the 7th pick.  It breaks down like this (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery#Process):

11.9% - 1st
12.6% - 2nd
13.3% - 3rd
9.9% - 4th
35.1% - 5th
16.0% 6th
1.2% 7th
I do think it is funny that the lowest percentage (aside from 7th) is 4th, which is in fact the slot by position.  Cracks me up a bit.  And I understand the math, it is just funny to me.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: LooseCannon on March 06, 2014, 05:07:52 PM
The worst that a team with the 4th-worst record can do is the 7th pick.  It breaks down like this (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery#Process):

11.9% - 1st
12.6% - 2nd
13.3% - 3rd
9.9% - 4th
35.1% - 5th
16.0% 6th
1.2% 7th
I do think it is funny that the lowest percentage (aside from 7th) is 4th, which is in fact the slot by position.  Cracks me up a bit.  And I understand the math, it is just funny to me.

Well, the point of the lottery is to discourage tanking by making losses less valuable when compared to there not being a lottery.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Smokeeye123 on March 07, 2014, 09:52:28 PM
Welp tough win tonight. I expected to win one agaibst bkl or detroit. Lets go pistons!!!!
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: slamtheking on March 27, 2014, 08:45:10 AM
as of this morning, C's in 5th slot. 

6 wins behind Cleveland in the 9th slot so that seems assuredly out of reach.

3 wins behind Detroit in the 8th spot--probably out of reach as well at this point.

2 wins behind Sac (7th) and 1 win behind LA (6th).  Tied with Utah in wins but one loss behind for 4th. still a chance we could end up with the 7th spot with Sac and LA playing in the west but I think we're pretty firmly somewhere in the 4th to 7th spot at this point.  With Utah also in the West, I don't see them climbing past us in the win column.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Smokeeye123 on March 27, 2014, 09:03:22 AM
as of this morning, C's in 5th slot. 

6 wins behind Cleveland in the 9th slot so that seems assuredly out of reach.

3 wins behind Detroit in the 8th spot--probably out of reach as well at this point.

2 wins behind Sac (7th) and 1 win behind LA (6th).  Tied with Utah in wins but one loss behind for 4th. still a chance we could end up with the 7th spot with Sac and LA playing in the west but I think we're pretty firmly somewhere in the 4th to 7th spot at this point.  With Utah also in the West, I don't see them climbing past us in the win column.

Utah and LA have a game together at the very end of the season, could be an interesting tank game with big draft  implications.
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: McHales Pits on March 27, 2014, 09:38:55 AM
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-pm-another-2014-nba-mock-draft/

This would be awesome...

 ;D
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: The One on March 27, 2014, 09:54:58 AM
Come on Brad...start Johnson and Babb.

We can do this!  ;D
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: saltlover on March 27, 2014, 10:02:44 AM
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-pm-another-2014-nba-mock-draft/

This would be awesome...

 ;D

It would be.  Loses a bit of credibility in my eyes for slotting our second pick in the wrong spot (i.e. giving us the Hawks pick at #15 instead of Brooklyn at #18, where they put Atlanta.)
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: AidaCelt on March 28, 2014, 07:20:46 AM
Bucks getting over Lakers hurt a bit. That Lakers/ Sac game is huge. I think Sac finish above us and Lakers below so it goes Bucks, Sixers, Magic, Lakers, Jazz, C's, Kings,
Title: Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
Post by: Smokeeye123 on March 31, 2014, 10:36:53 PM
Kings just won and Lakers won their last game. April could give us some wins but we have a real shot at getting #5. I dont see us beating the Jazz to the #4th spot barring some miracle.