CelticsStrong
Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: nickagneta on January 05, 2014, 08:27:24 PM
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So after the Bayless for Lee swap let's look at where the Celtics stand for next off season regarding their salary.(all numbers from shamsports.com)
Rajon Rondo $12,909,091
Gerald Wallace $10,105,855
Jeff Green $9,200,000
Brandon Bass $6,900,000
Vitor Faverani $2,090,000
Kelly Olynyk $2,075,760
Jared Sullinger $1,424,520
That's 7 totally guaranteed contracts totaling $44,705,226
If every other non-guaranteed contract was let go and every free agents renounced the Celtics cap number would stand at approximately:
Guaranteed contracts: $44,705,226
Empty player slots holds: 3 x $507,336 = $1,522,008
First round pick holds: +/- $4,000,000(taking holds for the 7th and 16th positions this number could fluctuate greatly if the C's get a top 3 pick)
Total salary: $50,227,234
Assuming a salary cap of about $58 million that leaves a total salary cap space after this trade of a little less than $8 million or
Keith Bogans $5,285,817
Phil Pressey $816,482
Are both non-guaranteed contracts. I think its safe to say Bogans is history but Pressey might stick around another year. If he does that adds $816,482 to the guaranteed salary and eliminates an empty salary slot hold of $507,336 for a total change of salary to $50,536,380 which really doesn't change our available salary under the cap much.
Now the following players have cap holds because they are free agents
Kris Humphries $18,000,000
Avery Bradley $6,278,580
Jordan Crawford $5,406,048
Jerryd Bayless $4,075,500
MarShon Brooks $2,179,354
I think its fairly certain to say that Humphries, Bayless and Brooks would be certainties to be renounced if the Celtics decide to try to stay under or close to as possible the cap. Bradley and Crawford could be offered qualifying offers and if they do then their cap holds stay until they sign a contract with another team, sign a multi-year contract with the Celtics or accept the qualifying offer and sign that one year deal with the Celtics.
Either way, offering a qualifying offer to either Bradley or Crawford or both takes the Celtics out of the running for any type of free agent over the MLE next year.
Now,of course, the situation is fluid. Trades will change this. The Celtics' draft positioning will change this. Their decision on who to renounce will change this(remember they can just as easily not renounce any of the free agents' rights and then sign and trade them) but as of right now, it looks pretty much like major free agent money will not be a part of the Celtic's next year without a team signing and trading that free agent to the Celtics.
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nice breakdown Nick but it was pretty much a given that the C's wouldn't be players in the FA market next year. The talent level on the team wouldn't justify adding a high-priced vet when we're looking for a lotto-rookie to boost the franchise and our promising youth still needs to develop into solid players or trade assets. (preferably solid players since they'd presumably be more affordable and under team control for a while longer)
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nice breakdown Nick but it was pretty much a given that the C's wouldn't be players in the FA market next year. The talent level on the team wouldn't justify adding a high-priced vet when we're looking for a lotto-rookie to boost the franchise and our promising youth still needs to develop into solid players or trade assets. (preferably solid players since they'd presumably be more affordable and under team control for a while longer)
I wasn't saying the C's would be making a free agency move next year, just laying out what the staus quo was right now my friend. My guess is I will update this more when other trades happen in the future this year.
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Nice breakdown, nick. One other "hold" is the trade exception. If we want to use cap room, I believe we need to renounce that exception (or let it expire).
We've got two decent avenues of adding a free agent above the MLE:
1. Via S&T through the trade exception;
2. Via S&T utilizing Bogans and Pressey's non-guaranteed contracts.
Neither is enough for a max contract, but they're potentially large enough to land a couple of decent players. In theory, we could use both and stay under the luxury tax.
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Nice breakdown, nick.
Only thing I would add is that the salary cap is projected to be a little higher than your estimate: at about $62 million.
http://www.celticsblog.com/2013/6/4/4394314/projected-nba-salary-cap-and-tax-threshold-established
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Us cap nerds lol I just literally left Shamsports mapping this all out in my head.
Moving Lee's $15mill+ guaranteed is an awesome move in early January. I like the flexibility.
I could see Bass being moved for an expiring/sweetner.
Rolling further with dumping Bass, say Danny throws some team this summer the LAC pick and an additional pick to eat Wallace, he could have enough for a max free agent and then some.
"Hey Carmelo, you wanted to play with Rondo, right?"
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Nice breakdown, nick.
Only thing I would add is that the salary cap is projected to be a little higher than your estimate: at about $62 million.
http://www.celticsblog.com/2013/6/4/4394314/projected-nba-salary-cap-and-tax-threshold-established
Yeah the league has projected higher numbers in the past by millions only to have the audit come back and have the projects be off. Until the audit I think I will go with a lower estimate as things things tend to go flat once the real numbers come in.
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Wallace's salary ostensibly takes us out of the running for signing a max FA. I can't envision us being able to move him barring Magic Johnson taking over an NBA team. I'm fine with this. It's the pill we had to swallow for the Nets trade.
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Wallace's salary ostensibly takes us out of the running for signing a max FA. I can't envision us being able to move him barring Magic Johnson taking over an NBA team. I'm fine with this. It's the pill we had to swallow for the Nets trade.
Yep we have maneuver around his contract because is terrible but if we made the right moves he could be a 7-8 guy on a competitive team next year.
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This is the type of content and analysis I come to CB for. Thanks Nick.
The Celtics are going to be in a flexible financial situation for the first time since the very beginning of the Pitino era.
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I am predicting Avery and Crawford both come back. I'd like it to happen, assuming the rest of the year goes smoothly when Rondo comes back. Crawford playing behind them seems like a great fit.
Hoping the numbers stay reasonable. I feel pretty confident Crawford will but am a little worried about Avery getting some offers especially if his offense is consistent through the end of the year.
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Normally Id say this is the 'first shoe to drop' due to the salary considerations but in this case I think Courtney Lee might have worn out his welcome some time ago.
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I am of the belief that Ainge isn't looking to make any major splashes in free agency this off-season. I think next season is also going to be looked at as a rebuilding year. If anything, I could see any cap room we do have being used as a trade chip a la the Utah Jazz this off-season.
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I don't think we'll try to sign a star (even though Melo, Bron, etc could all be free agents)...
but I still say it would make a lot of sense to trade Bass + Bradley for an expiring and a pick. That dramatically changes our flexibility. I assume we'll renounce Crawford. If you can trade Bass + Crawford + Bradley for an expiring and a 1st, you might want to do that.
Look, I actually like Bradley. I think he's probably a long-term bench player though. And if you can get a pick or a young player still on his rookie deal... you probably should do it. I can't see Bradley turning into a star and I don't like the idea of paying him 8 mil a year.
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I don't think we'll try to sign a star (even though Melo, Bron, etc could all be free agents)...
but I still say it would make a lot of sense to trade Bass + Bradley for an expiring and a pick. That dramatically changes our flexibility. I assume we'll renounce Crawford. If you can trade Bass + Crawford + Bradley for an expiring and a 1st, you might want to do that.
Look, I actually like Bradley. I think he's probably a long-term bench player though. And if you can get a pick or a young player still on his rookie deal... you probably should do it. I can't see Bradley turning into a star and I don't like the idea of paying him 8 mil a year.
I'm still not sold on the idea of Avery getting $8M. Especially when he's a RFA.
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I don't think we'll try to sign a star (even though Melo, Bron, etc could all be free agents)...
but I still say it would make a lot of sense to trade Bass + Bradley for an expiring and a pick. That dramatically changes our flexibility. I assume we'll renounce Crawford. If you can trade Bass + Crawford + Bradley for an expiring and a 1st, you might want to do that.
Look, I actually like Bradley. I think he's probably a long-term bench player though. And if you can get a pick or a young player still on his rookie deal... you probably should do it. I can't see Bradley turning into a star and I don't like the idea of paying him 8 mil a year.
I'm still not sold on the idea of Avery getting $8M. Especially when he's a RFA.
I agree with this. It would take a desperate small market team with space and a gaping hole at the 2 to make a 'they won't possibly match it' offer. Did they close the loophole Morey used?
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I don't think we'll try to sign a star (even though Melo, Bron, etc could all be free agents)...
but I still say it would make a lot of sense to trade Bass + Bradley for an expiring and a pick. That dramatically changes our flexibility. I assume we'll renounce Crawford. If you can trade Bass + Crawford + Bradley for an expiring and a 1st, you might want to do that.
Look, I actually like Bradley. I think he's probably a long-term bench player though. And if you can get a pick or a young player still on his rookie deal... you probably should do it. I can't see Bradley turning into a star and I don't like the idea of paying him 8 mil a year.
Even if the Celtics Trade Bass, Crawford and Bradley for an expiring deal the best case scenario of a $62 million cap number, leaves maybe enough for a max level guy but it also means renouncing every free agent and the Pierce trade exception and means trying to attract a max level guy to come play here with
Rondo
Green
Wallace
Faverani
Sullinger
Olynyk
2 first round picks
1 mimi mid level exception guy
4-5 minimum salaried players
I gotta think that with the Boston weather, the Massachusetts state tax situation, this roster outlook and the lack of options moving forward and it would be a real tough sell getting ANY free agent to sign here.
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I don't think we'll try to sign a star (even though Melo, Bron, etc could all be free agents)...
but I still say it would make a lot of sense to trade Bass + Bradley for an expiring and a pick. That dramatically changes our flexibility. I assume we'll renounce Crawford. If you can trade Bass + Crawford + Bradley for an expiring and a 1st, you might want to do that.
Look, I actually like Bradley. I think he's probably a long-term bench player though. And if you can get a pick or a young player still on his rookie deal... you probably should do it. I can't see Bradley turning into a star and I don't like the idea of paying him 8 mil a year.
Even if the Celtics Trade Bass, Crawford and Bradley for an expiring deal the best case scenario of a $62 million cap number, leaves maybe enough for a max level guy but it also means renouncing every free agent and the Pierce trade exception and means trying to attract a max level guy to come play here with
Rondo
Green
Wallace
Faverani
Sullinger
Olynyk
2 first round picks
1 mimi mid level exception guy
4-5 minimum salaried players
I gotta think that with the Boston weather, the Massachusetts state tax situation, this roster outlook and the lack of options moving forward and it would be a real tough sell getting ANY free agent to sign here.
Probably true. But you never know... maybe keeping Rondo would attract some other stars. Josh Smith, for instance, was keen on joining Boston.
If you're getting a pick or a rookie-scale contract for Bradley... that's basically a wash. Sacrificing Crawford and Bass isn't an issue, imho. Those two are easily replaceable.
But hey... change of subject. Someone can clarify here. Even if Boston doesn't make a trade from here on out... with our existing cap space (8 mil if we renounce everyone?) ... Would Boston be a player in sign-and-trades this summer?
For example... say we had 8 mil in cap space. Say Melo has decided to flee the Knicks and has Clippers, Lakers, Bulls and Celtics on his list. Couldn't you trade Green (9 mil) and Oly (2 mil) to the Knicks in a sign-and-trade and use your 8 mil in cap space to absorb Melo's starting salary (say 19 mil a year)? Boston says yes, because they want Melo. Knicks say yes, because they get Green and Oly instead of letting Melo walk for nothing. Is that theoretically possible?
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I am predicting Avery and Crawford both come back. I'd like it to happen, assuming the rest of the year goes smoothly when Rondo comes back. Crawford playing behind them seems like a great fit.
Hoping the numbers stay reasonable. I feel pretty confident Crawford will but am a little worried about Avery getting some offers especially if his offense is consistent through the end of the year.
Define "reasonable." 15 million/year for two guards who are probably bench players on a good team? Is Crawford even going to want to return to the bench when there's probably a bad team out there that would promise him money/minutes? Re-signing both will tie up a big chunk of cap for the next 3-4 years.
I think Ainge would be willing to sign one at a fair price (6-7 million) but not both. Personally I'd trade both if the right deal came along.
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Either way, offering a qualifying offer to either Bradley or Crawford or both takes the Celtics out of the running for any type of free agent over the MLE next year.
No, it doesn't.
The Celtics can dip into their stash of picks to offer another team enough draft considerations to take on contracts such as Bass and Wallace so that they can either sign a free agent outright or cause another team to agree to a sign-and-trade to keep from losing a guy for nothing.
It's a completely different question as to whether any free agent is worth giving up 2-3 picks. How many people would give up Bass, Green, and three unprotected first round picks to create cap space to sign Carmelo Anthony?
Or, if Ainge works quickly, the team can negotiate a sign-and-trade using the trade exception from the Nets deal.
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I don't think we'll try to sign a star (even though Melo, Bron, etc could all be free agents)...
but I still say it would make a lot of sense to trade Bass + Bradley for an expiring and a pick. That dramatically changes our flexibility. I assume we'll renounce Crawford. If you can trade Bass + Crawford + Bradley for an expiring and a 1st, you might want to do that.
Look, I actually like Bradley. I think he's probably a long-term bench player though. And if you can get a pick or a young player still on his rookie deal... you probably should do it. I can't see Bradley turning into a star and I don't like the idea of paying him 8 mil a year.
Even if the Celtics Trade Bass, Crawford and Bradley for an expiring deal the best case scenario of a $62 million cap number, leaves maybe enough for a max level guy but it also means renouncing every free agent and the Pierce trade exception and means trying to attract a max level guy to come play here with
Rondo
Green
Wallace
Faverani
Sullinger
Olynyk
2 first round picks
1 mimi mid level exception guy
4-5 minimum salaried players
I gotta think that with the Boston weather, the Massachusetts state tax situation, this roster outlook and the lack of options moving forward and it would be a real tough sell getting ANY free agent to sign here.
Probably true. But you never know... maybe keeping Rondo would attract some other stars. Josh Smith, for instance, was keen on joining Boston.
If you're getting a pick or a rookie-scale contract for Bradley... that's basically a wash. Sacrificing Crawford and Bass isn't an issue, imho. Those two are easily replaceable.
But hey... change of subject. Someone can clarify here. Even if Boston doesn't make a trade from here on out... with our existing cap space (8 mil if we renounce everyone?) ... Would Boston be a player in sign-and-trades this summer?
For example... say we had 8 mil in cap space. Say Melo has decided to flee the Knicks and has Clippers, Lakers, Bulls and Celtics on his list. Couldn't you trade Green (9 mil) and Oly (2 mil) to the Knicks in a sign-and-trade and use your 8 mil in cap space to absorb Melo's starting salary (say 19 mil a year)? Boston says yes, because they want Melo. Knicks say yes, because they get Green and Oly instead of letting Melo walk for nothing. Is that theoretically possible?
From my understanding that's absolutely possible...
If we did that clearing trade you mentioned before the last one, we would also have enough in 'chips' and cap space, to offer a player like Melo Bird Right type money because we have picks the Knicks would want. We could outbid, say the Lakers, anyway.
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Either way, offering a qualifying offer to either Bradley or Crawford or both takes the Celtics out of the running for any type of free agent over the MLE next year.
No, it doesn't.
The Celtics can dip into their stash of picks to offer another team enough draft considerations to take on contracts such as Bass and Wallace so that they can either sign a free agent outright or cause another team to agree to a sign-and-trade to keep from losing a guy for nothing.
It's a completely different question as to whether any free agent is worth giving up 2-3 picks. How many people would give up Bass, Green, and three unprotected first round picks to create cap space to sign Carmelo Anthony?
Or, if Ainge works quickly, the team can negotiate a sign-and-trade using the trade exception from the Nets deal.
Same amount of people who would trade Bass, Green and three unprotected picks for Carmelo Anthony. Probably a lot.
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Probably true. But you never know... maybe keeping Rondo would attract some other stars. Josh Smith, for instance, was keen on joining Boston.
I'm impressed that you snuck this in there without drawing any guffaws ;D (until now).
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I don't think we'll try to sign a star (even though Melo, Bron, etc could all be free agents)...
but I still say it would make a lot of sense to trade Bass + Bradley for an expiring and a pick. That dramatically changes our flexibility. I assume we'll renounce Crawford. If you can trade Bass + Crawford + Bradley for an expiring and a 1st, you might want to do that.
Look, I actually like Bradley. I think he's probably a long-term bench player though. And if you can get a pick or a young player still on his rookie deal... you probably should do it. I can't see Bradley turning into a star and I don't like the idea of paying him 8 mil a year.
I have to agree, I'm a bit 50/50 on this.
I really like Bradley and I would hate to see him leave, but I do feel like $8M is a bit steep for somebody who has still yet to show signs of any real consistency.
But...
Then I think about the fact that we effectively 'signed' Courtney Lee $5M/3 last season, and this was universally considered a golden deal. Lee was 27 years old at the time so his upside was minimal, and his career averages per 36 minutes (13 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2 assists, 45% FG, 39$ 3PT, 84% FT) are hardly mind blowing. Those are pure 'role player' numbers. Plus defensively he has never been on an "All Defensive team" elite level, as Bradley is right now. Also Lee was always a good athlete, but I wouldn't say he was an exceptional one.
By comparison, Avery Bradley right now is averaging averaging 16 points, 5 rebounds and 1.5 assists per 36 minutes. He's also putting up nice shooting percentages for a guard (45% FG, 41%3PT, 71% FT). Those are at least on par with Lee's numbers over his career, only Bradley is younger, has more upside, and is a far better defensive player.
When you consider that Bradley is scoring an efficient 16 points per 36 minutes, while also playing elite defense...$8M a year doesn't seem that unrealistic. Definately on the upper limit of what he's worth, but not unrealistic. I can understand why he turned down the $6M extension - it's a reasonable offer, but at the same time he has justification for arguing that he's worth more.
To put it into perspective O.J. Mayo recently signed a deal for what...$10M? His career averages per-36 minutes are 16.7 points, 3.6 rebounds, 3.3 assists along with 43% FG and 38% 3PT. That's right around what Bradley is averaging this season, yet Mayo 3 years older than Bradley and is nowhere near as good defensively.
Bradley will get his money...I'd like to wait this season out and see if he continues to put up these types of numbers, but if he does then he's probably worth an $8M deal. May well turn out to become a bargain (like the Rondo deal did - it was considered crazy at first).
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Either way, offering a qualifying offer to either Bradley or Crawford or both takes the Celtics out of the running for any type of free agent over the MLE next year.
No, it doesn't.
The Celtics can dip into their stash of picks to offer another team enough draft considerations to take on contracts such as Bass and Wallace so that they can either sign a free agent outright or cause another team to agree to a sign-and-trade to keep from losing a guy for nothing.
It's a completely different question as to whether any free agent is worth giving up 2-3 picks. How many people would give up Bass, Green, and three unprotected first round picks to create cap space to sign Carmelo Anthony?
Or, if Ainge works quickly, the team can negotiate a sign-and-trade using the trade exception from the Nets deal.
I personally don't think you'd have to pay a team to take Bass. Wallace is obviously a different story. What would it take though? Clippers pick and an additional pick (either BOS 1st or one of the BRK firsts?)
If Lee can essentially be traded for an expiring without compensating the other team, then Bass should be able to fetch slightly better as he has a shorter deal and is probably the "better" player.
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The poison pill Morey used on Asik and Lin only applies to Gilbert arenas RFAs who have 2 years service time. Avery will have 3 years and is a first round pick. So it isn't an option for other teams though there are other poison pill provisions. Mostly involving front loading and balloon payments. (Ie hurt the owners wallet and not your cap and tax)
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I don't think we'll try to sign a star (even though Melo, Bron, etc could all be free agents)...
but I still say it would make a lot of sense to trade Bass + Bradley for an expiring and a pick. That dramatically changes our flexibility. I assume we'll renounce Crawford. If you can trade Bass + Crawford + Bradley for an expiring and a 1st, you might want to do that.
Look, I actually like Bradley. I think he's probably a long-term bench player though. And if you can get a pick or a young player still on his rookie deal... you probably should do it. I can't see Bradley turning into a star and I don't like the idea of paying him 8 mil a year.
I'm still not sold on the idea of Avery getting $8M. Especially when he's a RFA.
I agree with this. It would take a desperate small market team with space and a gaping hole at the 2 to make a 'they won't possibly match it' offer. Did they close the loophole Morey used?
I could see Avery getting a deal in the 4 year / 28-30 million range. That might be too rich for the Celtics. Avery brings some nice things to the table, but he's still a role player who's undersized for his position.
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How about Stoudemire & Bargnani for Humphries, Bass, Wallace
Boston shaves the year off of Wallace, but takes on more salary next year when I don't see Boston as a free agent player anyway and still keeps all of the picks. Also gets a look at Bargnani and Stoudemire who might be useful bench players going forward (on greatly reduced salaries the next time around).
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How about Stoudemire & Bargnani for Humphries, Bass, Wallace
Boston shaves the year off of Wallace, but takes on more salary next year when I don't see Boston as a free agent player anyway and still keeps all of the picks. Also gets a look at Bargnani and Stoudemire who might be useful bench players going forward (on greatly reduced salaries the next time around).
Hmm...I would have to seriously consider this.
Bass and Wallace is a no brainer, Hump is the only one I'd have to think about because he's playing so well.
Still, I think I'd have to say yes to this. Amare (in limited minutes) is starting to look like his old self again, and as much as I dislike Bargnani he does have his uses...and we could really use a shooter like him to stretch the floor.
I actually think a duo of Bargnani + Sully would work very well together because Bargnani would spread the floor with his shooting, giving Sully the space he needs to operate around the basket...while Sully would make up for Bargnani's rebounding limitations.
I also think that Olynyk + Amare would make a nice pair. Both can score inside or out, both are decent rebounders, and both are more or less 7 footers. That would make for a pretty nice front court to bring off the bench.
Plus once Rondo comes back, the thought of a Rondo + Amare pick and roll makes me smile.
Hump isn't getting the minutes he deserves here anyway, and we are unlikely to be any good next year regardless. The duo of Amare + Bargnani combined have two years (and $33M) on the books, so this puts us in a VERY good financial position after next season ends.
AND we get to keep all of our picks.
Yeh, if I were DA I would have to say yes to this.
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We should steal another one of the Knicks' firsts while we're at it.
That dude is just GIVING them away.
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Actually the Trade Machine says this wouldn't work - Knicks would be giving us $33,542,393 and we would only be giving them $28,555,855.
According to the TM we would need to add an additional $852,440 (at least) to make it work.
If we throw in Bogans than that makes it a perfect match. Probably makes it more tempting for the Knicks as well...they get back $17M in expiring contracts (Hump + Bogans) and only have to take on $17M in long term contracts (Wallace + Bass). Bass' deal is only for two years, so that's no worse off than the Amare/Andrea deals. That means the only part they will get stuck with for longer is the extra year at $10M for Wallace. That's basically a $17M saving for them come the end of this season, giving them the flexibility to makes some deals to improve the team and convince Carmello to return.
In addition to that they get four extra players on their roster. The combination of Bass+Hump is probably more productive for them than Amare+Bargnani (if they want to make a Playoff run) and they could probably use defensive energy-guys like Wallace and Bogans on the bench.
They would need to clear two roster spots to make it happen though (as this would put them at 17 players under contract). I'd be happy enough to take Kenyon Martin and Toure Murray back...we could either keep them or buy them out for instant cap space.
So the end result would look something like this:
Knicks send:
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Amare Stoudemire
Andre Bargnani
Kenon Martin
Toure' Murray
Celtics send:
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Kris Humphreys
Gerald Wallace
Brandon Bass
Keith Bogans
How is that?
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I ran Amare/Bargs for Hump/Bass/Wallace through trade machine and it worked just fine.
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Either way, offering a qualifying offer to either Bradley or Crawford or both takes the Celtics out of the running for any type of free agent over the MLE next year.
No, it doesn't.
The Celtics can dip into their stash of picks to offer another team enough draft considerations to take on contracts such as Bass and Wallace so that they can either sign a free agent outright or cause another team to agree to a sign-and-trade to keep from losing a guy for nothing.
It's a completely different question as to whether any free agent is worth giving up 2-3 picks. How many people would give up Bass, Green, and three unprotected first round picks to create cap space to sign Carmelo Anthony?
Or, if Ainge works quickly, the team can negotiate a sign-and-trade using the trade exception from the Nets deal.
I think you may have stopped reading the original post as soon as it came to that part. Here, let me re-post what I said at the end of the post
Now,of course, the situation is fluid. Trades will change this. The Celtics' draft positioning will change this. Their decision on who to renounce will change this(remember they can just as easily not renounce any of the free agents' rights and then sign and trade them) but as of right now, it looks pretty much like major free agent money will not be a part of the Celtic's next year without a team signing and trading that free agent to the Celtics.
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I understand the motivation behind this, but I feel like Bass is already a tradeable guy for an expiring on his own. Assuming that is true, wouldn't a much simpler deal be Humphries and Wallace for Stoudemire alone?
The way the deal is now we're giving up two good players on expiring or inexpensive deals (Humphries and Bass) for two guys who are overrated and on horrible deals just for that one year of Wallace cap relief.
I guess the difference is I just don't see Stoudemire and Bargnani as having much on-court value. Having the Humphries deal off is good flexibility this offseason even if that space is not used on outside free agents.
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Nicely done Nick. I'd say there's a very high % that Bass is traded. I suspect the next most likely to go would be Green. A package of the two could be fairly attractive to a number of teams.
If the Cs traded those two for expiring(s) + a pick (hello Cleveland?) or expiring(s) + a rookie contract player, then they could re-sign Bradley, renounce or S&T Crawford, and yet still would be a player in FA this summer. Agreed?
If that turns out to be the case, the Cs could also choose to part with a pick or two (along with Bogans or PP trade exception) to bring back a nice vet to go with whoever they sign.
Example:
- Trade for Afflalo during the draft (Bogans + 2014 Atlanta pick + 2015 Clips pick);
- Draft a Center with our pick;
- Sign Chandler Parsons to a giant offer sheet, OR;
- (hate this idea) convince Melo to come to play with his boy Rajon.
Rondo
Afflalo
Parsons or Melo
Sully / KO
2014 Draft Pick at C
Bradley 6th man
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Either way, offering a qualifying offer to either Bradley or Crawford or both takes the Celtics out of the running for any type of free agent over the MLE next year.
No, it doesn't.
The Celtics can dip into their stash of picks to offer another team enough draft considerations to take on contracts such as Bass and Wallace so that they can either sign a free agent outright or cause another team to agree to a sign-and-trade to keep from losing a guy for nothing.
It's a completely different question as to whether any free agent is worth giving up 2-3 picks. How many people would give up Bass, Green, and three unprotected first round picks to create cap space to sign Carmelo Anthony?
Or, if Ainge works quickly, the team can negotiate a sign-and-trade using the trade exception from the Nets deal.
I think you may have stopped reading the original post as soon as it came to that part. Here, let me re-post what I said at the end of the post
Now,of course, the situation is fluid. Trades will change this. The Celtics' draft positioning will change this. Their decision on who to renounce will change this(remember they can just as easily not renounce any of the free agents' rights and then sign and trade them) but as of right now, it looks pretty much like major free agent money will not be a part of the Celtic's next year without a team signing and trading that free agent to the Celtics.
It's a mistake to see things as a series of discrete transactions. The Celtics will probably not make a move to free up cap space and then figure out who can be signed with that cap space. Creating cap space with the hope that you will find a way to use it is often a bad strategy. If Ainge signs a big free agent, it will probably involve reaching a tentative deal with a free agent, then figuring out what deals are necessary to free up cap space (which he may have already negotiated on a conditional basis).
I expect Ainge to make a courtesy call to the agents of players he covets to see if their asking price is worth making moves to clear cap space.
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So what does this look like after the Crawford/Brooks trade?
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So what does this look like after the Crawford/Brooks trade?
Crawford and Brooks are free agents whose expirings contracts were coming off the books. Joel Anthony is owed 3.8 mil next year, so instead of having around 7 mil in cap space if we renounced all our FAs (including Bradley), we'd only have ~3 million.
The first round pick would take away another 1-2mil if Philly makes the playoffs. The second round pick doesn't affect anything because it's Miami's and will be #60 (never be signed).