CelticsStrong
Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: Clench123 on January 05, 2014, 10:47:22 AM
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Just a little reminder here, because people often create threads, shopping him for scraps
www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Pkc5QFaUyM
www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WIoOWp0k24
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I didn't need a reminder. but I watched anyway.
And you're right I think a lot of fans forget how good rondo is and definitely need reminding.
I can't wait.
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That bounce pass to Pierce in the lane through traffic is just a thing of beauty. I remember when he did that in the game and it's nice to see that in a highlight reel otherwise filled with around the back passes. It's probably the most difficult pass on that video.
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please dont ever get hurt again!
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Great reminder, Clench. Here's another great Top 10.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zHFwwwle-qw
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rondo = overrated around here, underrated around the rest of the country, imo
will be interested how he performs now that he is "the man" on this team
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I don't know that Rondo's overrated or underrated on here... I think that between all of our various opinions we know exactly how he stacks up.
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Yes, The Aggressive Rondo is a Top 5-10 Player in this league...but I also won't forget the Passive Rondo, who is less than an average player....Playoffs Rondo is another thing all together.
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Yes, The Aggressive Rondo is a Top 5-10 Player in this league...but I also won't forget the Passive Rondo, who is less than an average player....Playoffs Rondo is another thing all together.
this is exactly how i feel.
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I don't know that Rondo's overrated or underrated on here... I think that between all of our various opinions we know exactly how he stacks up.
celtics nation is a lot bigger than just this site.
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Yes, The Aggressive Rondo is a Top 5-10 Player in this league...but I also won't forget the Passive Rondo, who is less than an average player....Playoffs Rondo is another thing all together.
I'd call passive Rondo average, because all players have games, and stretches within games, where they're just not as locked in. Adrenaline will do that to you. We just notice more with Rondo for reasons I don't know. PP would have his times where he just wanted to iso every time down the court, KG would have his days where he'd not be aggressive offensively. Kobe has his chucker games. LeBron disappears now and again.
Rondo gives a ton of effort most games. Heck, he played 12 minutes on a torn ACL. But that effort won't be there 100% of the time, because it just can't. People need to live with it, and start appreciating him for what he is.
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Yes, The Aggressive Rondo is a Top 5-10 Player in this league...but I also won't forget the Passive Rondo, who is less than an average player....Playoffs Rondo is another thing all together.
I'd call passive Rondo average, because all players have games, and stretches within games, where they're just not as locked in. Adrenaline will do that to you. We just notice more with Rondo for reasons I don't know. PP would have his times where he just wanted to iso every time down the court, KG would have his days where he'd not be aggressive offensively. Kobe has his chucker games. LeBron disappears now and again.
Rondo gives a ton of effort most games. Heck, he played 12 minutes on a torn ACL. But that effort won't be there 100% of the time, because it just can't. People need to live with it, and start appreciating him for what he is.
my thoughts exactly, passive Rondo, average player, maybe even borderline all-star
aggressive rondo - all-star material, top 5-10 player.
Playoff Rondo - HOF
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I am really becoming a heel in my own mind. My natural first-off response was, "I bet Bulls fans watched a lot of highlight reels too."
Ugh, even I hate response. I miss Rondo.
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I think a lot of his critics don't realize or don't want to consider that he isn't a big guy and when he is in aggressive mode he is taking a beating. He paces himself, and imho, he has been wise to do so, most of the time.
I have been irritated with his lackluster efforts too but the bottom line is when he goes all out, he is a top 5-10 player and he simply CAN'T go all out all the time.
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Woah.. that guy looks awesome. We should trade for him. Do you think the Celtics would take Humph's expiring contract, Oly and both of our 2014 1st rounders for him?
Why for Celtics: They get a young player (Oly) + two future first rounders to build around + a fat expiring contract in Humph. Helps the Celtics bottom out this year and get a top pick in the draft.
Why for Boston: Yes, it would be tough giving up all those assets, but they'd get an elite Top 20 PG out of it. You stick that guy with Jeff Green, Sully, Bradley and Asik and you could probably get Boston to 35 wins and the 8th seed in the playoffs.
Works in the trade machine:
http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=larbrd33 (http://i.imgur.com/QwjnTFo.jpg)
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rondo = overrated around here, underrated around the rest of the country, imo
will be interested how he performs now that he is "the man" on this team
I think that if you quantified how Rondo's rated around the league it would be well higher than how he's rated here.
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Now that nba.com lets you watch video of literally any stat, I'm seriously considering inventing the "Lowlight Video" where it's just clips of missed shots and turnovers set to banging club music.
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Now that nba.com lets you watch video of literally any stat, I'm seriously considering inventing the "Lowlight Video" where it's just clips of missed shots and turnovers set to banging club music.
Something like this?:
http://deadspin.com/cody-zeller-made-the-poor-decision-to-attempt-dunking-1492957932
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I think it's safe to say he has a higher basketball IQ than
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Kaufman
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Woah.. that guy looks awesome. We should trade for him. Do you think the Celtics would take Humph's expiring contract, Oly and both of our 2014 1st rounders for him?
Why for Celtics: They get a young player (Oly) + two future first rounders to build around + a fat expiring contract in Humph. Helps the Celtics bottom out this year and get a top pick in the draft.
Why for Boston: Yes, it would be tough giving up all those assets, but they'd get an elite Top 20 PG out of it. You stick that guy with Jeff Green, Sully, Bradley and Asik and you could probably get Boston to 35 wins and the 8th seed in the playoffs.
Works in the trade machine:
http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=larbrd33 (http://i.imgur.com/QwjnTFo.jpg)
Somehow, when I see a trade where Boston trades with itself I think of your constant attempts to convince others that Rondo's a "top 20" point guard. Generally similar amount of effectiveness and all.
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didn't need a reminder he's a great player, just reminded me of how much I miss watching him play :(
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Woah.. that guy looks awesome. We should trade for him. Do you think the Celtics would take Humph's expiring contract, Oly and both of our 2014 1st rounders for him?
Why for Celtics: They get a young player (Oly) + two future first rounders to build around + a fat expiring contract in Humph. Helps the Celtics bottom out this year and get a top pick in the draft.
Why for Boston: Yes, it would be tough giving up all those assets, but they'd get an elite Top 20 PG out of it. You stick that guy with Jeff Green, Sully, Bradley and Asik and you could probably get Boston to 35 wins and the 8th seed in the playoffs.
Works in the trade machine:
http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=larbrd33 (http://i.imgur.com/QwjnTFo.jpg)
Somehow, when I see a trade where Boston trades with itself I think of your constant attempts to convince others that Rondo's a "top 20" point guard. Generally similar amount of effectiveness and all.
Well the trade does help both sides...
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Thanks for posting.
I haven't forgotten. I watch those videos almost daily.
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rondo = overrated around here, underrated around the rest of the country, imo
will be interested how he performs now that he is "the man" on this team
I think that if you quantified how Rondo's rated around the league it would be well higher than how he's rated here.
Not as long as you're skewing the average towards Point God.
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rondo = overrated around here, underrated around the rest of the country, imo
will be interested how he performs now that he is "the man" on this team
I think that if you quantified how Rondo's rated around the league it would be well higher than how he's rated here.
Really? In their pre-season player rankings, ESPN ranked Rondo as the 27th best player in the league. However, I believe you have him as either a top 5 or top 10 player.
I have him as a top 8 PG with Paul, Williams, Irving, Parker, Curry, Westbrook, and Lillard ahead of him. Wall and Bledsoe (if you want to consider him a PG) are quickly closing ground though.
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Woah.. that guy looks awesome. We should trade for him. Do you think the Celtics would take Humph's expiring contract, Oly and both of our 2014 1st rounders for him?
Why for Celtics: They get a young player (Oly) + two future first rounders to build around + a fat expiring contract in Humph. Helps the Celtics bottom out this year and get a top pick in the draft.
Why for Boston: Yes, it would be tough giving up all those assets, but they'd get an elite Top 20 PG out of it. You stick that guy with Jeff Green, Sully, Bradley and Asik and you could probably get Boston to 35 wins and the 8th seed in the playoffs.
Works in the trade machine:
http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=larbrd33 (http://i.imgur.com/QwjnTFo.jpg)
Somehow, when I see a trade where Boston trades with itself I think of your constant attempts to convince others that Rondo's a "top 20" point guard. Generally similar amount of effectiveness and all.
Tim, I think you're being unfair to Rondo when you suggest he isn't a Top 20 Point guard. Can you seriously name 20 guys better than him? I say he's definitely in the Top 20. I'm surprised you don't think he belongs. And you call yourself a fan!??!
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rondo = overrated around here, underrated around the rest of the country, imo
will be interested how he performs now that he is "the man" on this team
I think that if you quantified how Rondo's rated around the league it would be well higher than how he's rated here.
Really? In their pre-season player rankings, ESPN ranked Rondo as the 27th best player in the league. However, I believe you have him as either a top 5 or top 10 player.
Obviously his knee injury affected his rankings. In his last full season ESPN ranked him 12th and he was 3rd team all-nba (13th in total votes), 11th in all-star voting, 2nd team all-defense. That's not that far from what I've said in the past (top 15 or so during the season, top 5 in the playoffs when healthy). People spend a lot of time ridiculing my opinion of Rondo but it's fairly mainstream.
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Woah.. that guy looks awesome. We should trade for him. Do you think the Celtics would take Humph's expiring contract, Oly and both of our 2014 1st rounders for him?
Why for Celtics: They get a young player (Oly) + two future first rounders to build around + a fat expiring contract in Humph. Helps the Celtics bottom out this year and get a top pick in the draft.
Why for Boston: Yes, it would be tough giving up all those assets, but they'd get an elite Top 20 PG out of it. You stick that guy with Jeff Green, Sully, Bradley and Asik and you could probably get Boston to 35 wins and the 8th seed in the playoffs.
Works in the trade machine:
http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=larbrd33 (http://i.imgur.com/QwjnTFo.jpg)
Somehow, when I see a trade where Boston trades with itself I think of your constant attempts to convince others that Rondo's a "top 20" point guard. Generally similar amount of effectiveness and all.
Tim, I think you're being unfair to Rondo when you suggest he isn't a Top 20 Point guard. Can you seriously name 20 guys better than him? I say he's definitely in the Top 20. I'm surprised you don't think he belongs. And you call yourself a fan!??!
You're right. If you're looking for fair, a good rule of thumb to use is to take the number of players/point guards you have rated above Rondo and divide by 4.
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rondo = overrated around here, underrated around the rest of the country, imo
will be interested how he performs now that he is "the man" on this team
I think that if you quantified how Rondo's rated around the league it would be well higher than how he's rated here.
Really? In their pre-season player rankings, ESPN ranked Rondo as the 27th best player in the league. However, I believe you have him as either a top 5 or top 10 player.
Obviously his knee injury affected his rankings. In his last full season ESPN ranked him 12th and he was 3rd team all-nba (13th in total votes), 11th in all-star voting, 2nd team all-defense. That's not that far from what I've said in the past (top 15 or so during the season, top 5 in the playoffs when healthy). People spend a lot of time ridiculing my opinion of Rondo but it's fairly mainstream.
Well, keep in mind that Westbrook, Rose, and Kobe were all ranked ahead of him and they all were dealing with injuries as well.
The league has changed a good bit since Rondo was ranked 12th. Harden, George, Irving, Lillard, Curry, etc. have all emerged. And with all the young players (Anthony Davis, Cousins, Drummond, etc.) continuing to rise, him being top 15, as you said, remains in question.
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1:56 that backward flick pass to Ray was a beauty, remember it like yesterday
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rondo = overrated around here, underrated around the rest of the country, imo
will be interested how he performs now that he is "the man" on this team
I think that if you quantified how Rondo's rated around the league it would be well higher than how he's rated here.
Really? In their pre-season player rankings, ESPN ranked Rondo as the 27th best player in the league. However, I believe you have him as either a top 5 or top 10 player.
Obviously his knee injury affected his rankings. In his last full season ESPN ranked him 12th and he was 3rd team all-nba (13th in total votes), 11th in all-star voting, 2nd team all-defense. That's not that far from what I've said in the past (top 15 or so during the season, top 5 in the playoffs when healthy). People spend a lot of time ridiculing my opinion of Rondo but it's fairly mainstream.
Well, keep in mind that Westbrook, Rose, and Kobe were all ranked ahead of him and they all were dealing with injuries as well.
The league has changed a good bit since Rondo was ranked 12th. Harden, George, Irving, Lillard, Curry, etc. have all emerged. And with all the young players (Anthony Davis, Cousins, Drummond, etc.) continuing to rise, him being top 15, as you said, remains in question.
Sure, there's movement below him and players ahead of him drop. But from your ESPN rank, in Rondo's last 2 full seasons he was 17th and 12th. He's generally around that range in all-star voting, and he's been in that range for all-nba voting as well. I think you'd have a fairly tough time trying to demonstrate that he was viewed at a level lower than that outside of Boston prior to his injury. Again, it's relatively close to what I typically say about Rondo (although I don't have proof he's more highly rated in the playoffs, he's probably more known for stepping up his game in the postseason than anyone in the league).
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At the outset of the year, ESPN talked about point guards:
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/5-on-5-PG-130808/debating-nba-point-guards
Rondo is mentioned once, as having a lower PER than Kemba Walker.
Then bradford doolittle chimed in with an insider article
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/9517977/nba-projecting-top-10-point-guards-warp-2013-14
As we enter the dog days of the summer -- always a calm time in the NBA -- there are a few notable free agents still out there (Greg Oden, Mo Williams and DeJuan Blair come to mind). For the most part, though, we've got a pretty firm idea what the rosters are going to look like when the 2013-14 season tips off on Oct. 29. As the depth charts have filled, so have the forecasts generated by ATH coalesced. ATH is the projection module of NBAPET, my system of integrated spreadsheets for tracking, evaluating and forecasting all things NBA.
With the pieces falling into place, let's take an early stab at ranking players by position, beginning today with point guards. (Although keep in mind that assigning a primary position to a player in today's NBA is often more art than science.) Over the next two weeks, we'll rank players by position according to ATH's forecasted WARP, or wins above replacement level. WARP is perfect for this kind of exercise because it accounts for a player's efficiency, volume of production and team context.
Here are the projected top 10 point guards for the 2013-14 NBA season followed by the next five and an overview of how some notable PGs fell outside the top 10.
1. Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 15.9
This might be the Year of Chris Paul, if the Miami Heat falter a bit in the regular season or MVP voters grow tired of rubber-stamping LeBron James' name at the top of their ballots. With the Clippers poised to build upon last year's breakout season and challenge for the top seed in the West, it could come down to a Paul versus Kevin Durant battle for the coveted Maurice Podoloff Trophy. Paul has finished in the top five of the voting four times and as high as second. Although ATH sees a near replica of Paul's 2012-13 WARP, it's still a figure that will garner lots of MVP chatter.
And why wouldn't ATH see Paul churning out the same season? At 29, he's squarely in his prime and his individual winning percentages the past two seasons (.740 and .739) nicely illustrate just how consistent he is. Paul doesn't use as many possessions as he did in his top seasons in New Orleans, but every other facet of his game has remained intact. Last season, Paul shot a career-low 32.8 percent from 3-point range, although he offset that by doing more damage inside the arc. He's shot as high as 40.9 percent from deep in his career, and if he has a fluky good-shooting campaign, it could put him over a .600 true shooting percentage for the first time in his career. In fact, ATH sees a regression in the 3-point rate, bringing Paul up to a .600 TS% on the nose. With so many weapons around him -- Blake Griffin, Jamal Crawford, Jared Dudley, J.J. Redick, Matt Barnes, Reggie Bullock -- it will be up to Paul to orchestrate the most high-powered offensive attack he's been a part of to date.
2. Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 11.7
By the time the MVP voting results were released during the playoffs, Westbrook had been knocked out by a knee injury and unfortunately, that's probably what we will remember most from his 2012-13 season. Overlooked at the time was the fact that Westbrook finished ninth in the voting despite ranking third in WARP. While Westbrook's value to the Thunder was apparently overlooked when the ballots were completed, it was abundantly clear when he was absent during the postseason. ATH isn't forecasting a decline for Westbrook this season as much as a regression, and the distinction is important. Regression, in a statistical context, simply means moving toward average. It can be a positive or negative effect, yet many people take the term as a pejorative.
Westbrook took a huge leap last season and like Derrick Rose in 2011-12, he's likely to come back to earth just a little bit. ATH sees Westbrook maintaining his roughly 33 percent usage rate of the last two seasons. Given some possible shortages on the Oklahoma City bench, it could climb even higher depending on how many of his minutes come with Kevin Durant off the floor. If so, Westbrook's tepid efficiency could slide into the danger area.
3. Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 11.4
On a per-possession basis, ATH sees Irving bypassing Westbrook as the second-best point guard in the NBA. In general, NBA players experience the most growth in their early 20s, and Irving will be barely 22 by the time the 2013-14 postseason rolls around. His revamped Cavaliers might well be a part of the proceedings. ATH sees a growth in Irving's efficiency both inside and outside the arc, resulting in a soaring true shooting percentage of .574. That's all while using the same portion of Cleveland's offense as the other young Cavaliers grow around him. The three-win leap in WARP is doable, but it would certainly help if Irving can make it through a season healthy. After two seasons, his career high in games played is just 59.
4. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 10.7
Curry jumped from 4.7 WARP to 15.8 last season, but of course his health was the driving force in that quantum leap. Curry's winning percentage the last two seasons has been virtually identical: .665 and .669. He'll turn 26 this year, so chances are he's established his level of play, giving him less of a ceiling than someone like Irving. However, that level of play is really impressive. You can set your watch by Curry's 3-point shooting, but last year he actually shot worse inside the arc than outside it. ATH sees a regression in the right direction in that regard, but a concurrent one in the wrong direction in Curry's turnover rate. If Curry can continue his improvement in ball protection, his bottom-line value will rival that of the non-Paul class of point guards.
5. Deron Williams, Brooklyn Nets
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 9.9
With the change in talent around him, Williams will be one of the most intriguing players to watch in the coming season. During his best years in Utah, Williams was an assist machine, but as a Net he initially took on a heavy scoring load and his efficiency dropped off the map. Last season, with Brooklyn's roster improved, Williams' usage rate returned to previous levels, and his shooting percentages recovered accordingly. However, his assist rate was his lowest since his rookie season. Williams' turnovers also were down, so he simply had the ball less. With so much talent and so many alpha personalities on the new Nets, Williams can either be more of a cog in the machine or he can become its operator. Given the on-court proclivities of his new coach, Jason Kidd, I'm going to guess it's going to be the latter. If Williams can return to his days of double-digit assists, it will be a sign the new mix in Brooklyn is working.
6. Mike Conley, Memphis Grizzlies
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.5
ATH sees Conley's 2012-13 season as a career campaign, but he's not likely to regress much. The biggest uptick in his game last year was shot selection, with a five percent increase in the portion of his possessions that ended with a 3-point attempt. That kind of wisdom, once gained, is not easily lost.
7. Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.3
Forecasting games played always is tough, and the formula for doing so leaves Rose with just 61 games in his projection. That's what happens when a guy misses 109 regular-season games over two seasons. His winning percentage is tabbed at .607, down from the .679 he put up in his MVP season of 2010-11. ATH, like the rest of us, believes Rose has plenty to prove in the coming season.
8. Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.1
Lowry has put up right around 8.0 WARP in each of the last three seasons. He's in his prime and remains underrated. Could some younger guards behind Lowry climb over him on the value ladder? Sure. There are a number of point guards with higher ceilings, but few who have demonstrated such a consistent level of play.
9. Ty Lawson, Denver Nuggets
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.1
Lawson is a classic example of the usage/efficiency nexus. His usage rate has increased in every season of his career, and his true shooting percentage has declined. Just as important, though, his assist rate has steadily climbed even as his turnover rate has dropped. This season, ATH sees all those various elements coming together as Lawson steps into his prime.
10. Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 7.8
There is a school of thought that Lillard entered the NBA fully formed and, as outstanding as he was in his Rookie of the Year campaign, Lillard is as good now as he's ever going to be. This is the season we begin to find out if that's true. ATH projects that Lillard will take a significant step forward, with progress in shot selection and especially on the defensive end.
The next five: Kemba Walker, John Wall, Tony Parker, Jose Calderon, Ricky Rubio.
It's a point guard league right now, so there are some big names that slip outside the top 10. Rubio, who ranks 15th at 6.5 WARP, would rate as the No. 6 shooting guard, for example. So these are actually solid ratings for the up-and-coming Walker and Wall, even though they are both dinged for a combination of high usage rates and low shooting percentages.
Parker's standing represents a slip, but he'll turn 32 during the playoffs next season. That's a rough age for a guard historically speaking, and Parker's forecast sees a regression to what he was before his spike the last two seasons. He's still at 7.1 WARP, which put him in the top 10 of every other position except power forward.
Also: Rajon Rondo's existing injury limits his forecast to 48 games and a 4.7 WARP. It's an uncertain process with guys coming off serious injuries, but the one-year anniversary of his knee surgery isn't until Feb. 12. With a full projection of games played, Rondo's winning percentage would have landed him between Lawson and Lillard in the rankings.
Not saying that I agree with either, but I think it's a little illuminating.
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At the outset of the year, ESPN talked about point guards:
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/5-on-5-PG-130808/debating-nba-point-guards
Rondo is mentioned once, as having a lower PER than Kemba Walker.
Then bradford doolittle chimed in with an insider article
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/9517977/nba-projecting-top-10-point-guards-warp-2013-14
As we enter the dog days of the summer -- always a calm time in the NBA -- there are a few notable free agents still out there (Greg Oden, Mo Williams and DeJuan Blair come to mind). For the most part, though, we've got a pretty firm idea what the rosters are going to look like when the 2013-14 season tips off on Oct. 29. As the depth charts have filled, so have the forecasts generated by ATH coalesced. ATH is the projection module of NBAPET, my system of integrated spreadsheets for tracking, evaluating and forecasting all things NBA.
With the pieces falling into place, let's take an early stab at ranking players by position, beginning today with point guards. (Although keep in mind that assigning a primary position to a player in today's NBA is often more art than science.) Over the next two weeks, we'll rank players by position according to ATH's forecasted WARP, or wins above replacement level. WARP is perfect for this kind of exercise because it accounts for a player's efficiency, volume of production and team context.
Here are the projected top 10 point guards for the 2013-14 NBA season followed by the next five and an overview of how some notable PGs fell outside the top 10.
1. Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 15.9
This might be the Year of Chris Paul, if the Miami Heat falter a bit in the regular season or MVP voters grow tired of rubber-stamping LeBron James' name at the top of their ballots. With the Clippers poised to build upon last year's breakout season and challenge for the top seed in the West, it could come down to a Paul versus Kevin Durant battle for the coveted Maurice Podoloff Trophy. Paul has finished in the top five of the voting four times and as high as second. Although ATH sees a near replica of Paul's 2012-13 WARP, it's still a figure that will garner lots of MVP chatter.
And why wouldn't ATH see Paul churning out the same season? At 29, he's squarely in his prime and his individual winning percentages the past two seasons (.740 and .739) nicely illustrate just how consistent he is. Paul doesn't use as many possessions as he did in his top seasons in New Orleans, but every other facet of his game has remained intact. Last season, Paul shot a career-low 32.8 percent from 3-point range, although he offset that by doing more damage inside the arc. He's shot as high as 40.9 percent from deep in his career, and if he has a fluky good-shooting campaign, it could put him over a .600 true shooting percentage for the first time in his career. In fact, ATH sees a regression in the 3-point rate, bringing Paul up to a .600 TS% on the nose. With so many weapons around him -- Blake Griffin, Jamal Crawford, Jared Dudley, J.J. Redick, Matt Barnes, Reggie Bullock -- it will be up to Paul to orchestrate the most high-powered offensive attack he's been a part of to date.
2. Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 11.7
By the time the MVP voting results were released during the playoffs, Westbrook had been knocked out by a knee injury and unfortunately, that's probably what we will remember most from his 2012-13 season. Overlooked at the time was the fact that Westbrook finished ninth in the voting despite ranking third in WARP. While Westbrook's value to the Thunder was apparently overlooked when the ballots were completed, it was abundantly clear when he was absent during the postseason. ATH isn't forecasting a decline for Westbrook this season as much as a regression, and the distinction is important. Regression, in a statistical context, simply means moving toward average. It can be a positive or negative effect, yet many people take the term as a pejorative.
Westbrook took a huge leap last season and like Derrick Rose in 2011-12, he's likely to come back to earth just a little bit. ATH sees Westbrook maintaining his roughly 33 percent usage rate of the last two seasons. Given some possible shortages on the Oklahoma City bench, it could climb even higher depending on how many of his minutes come with Kevin Durant off the floor. If so, Westbrook's tepid efficiency could slide into the danger area.
3. Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 11.4
On a per-possession basis, ATH sees Irving bypassing Westbrook as the second-best point guard in the NBA. In general, NBA players experience the most growth in their early 20s, and Irving will be barely 22 by the time the 2013-14 postseason rolls around. His revamped Cavaliers might well be a part of the proceedings. ATH sees a growth in Irving's efficiency both inside and outside the arc, resulting in a soaring true shooting percentage of .574. That's all while using the same portion of Cleveland's offense as the other young Cavaliers grow around him. The three-win leap in WARP is doable, but it would certainly help if Irving can make it through a season healthy. After two seasons, his career high in games played is just 59.
4. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 10.7
Curry jumped from 4.7 WARP to 15.8 last season, but of course his health was the driving force in that quantum leap. Curry's winning percentage the last two seasons has been virtually identical: .665 and .669. He'll turn 26 this year, so chances are he's established his level of play, giving him less of a ceiling than someone like Irving. However, that level of play is really impressive. You can set your watch by Curry's 3-point shooting, but last year he actually shot worse inside the arc than outside it. ATH sees a regression in the right direction in that regard, but a concurrent one in the wrong direction in Curry's turnover rate. If Curry can continue his improvement in ball protection, his bottom-line value will rival that of the non-Paul class of point guards.
5. Deron Williams, Brooklyn Nets
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 9.9
With the change in talent around him, Williams will be one of the most intriguing players to watch in the coming season. During his best years in Utah, Williams was an assist machine, but as a Net he initially took on a heavy scoring load and his efficiency dropped off the map. Last season, with Brooklyn's roster improved, Williams' usage rate returned to previous levels, and his shooting percentages recovered accordingly. However, his assist rate was his lowest since his rookie season. Williams' turnovers also were down, so he simply had the ball less. With so much talent and so many alpha personalities on the new Nets, Williams can either be more of a cog in the machine or he can become its operator. Given the on-court proclivities of his new coach, Jason Kidd, I'm going to guess it's going to be the latter. If Williams can return to his days of double-digit assists, it will be a sign the new mix in Brooklyn is working.
6. Mike Conley, Memphis Grizzlies
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.5
ATH sees Conley's 2012-13 season as a career campaign, but he's not likely to regress much. The biggest uptick in his game last year was shot selection, with a five percent increase in the portion of his possessions that ended with a 3-point attempt. That kind of wisdom, once gained, is not easily lost.
7. Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.3
Forecasting games played always is tough, and the formula for doing so leaves Rose with just 61 games in his projection. That's what happens when a guy misses 109 regular-season games over two seasons. His winning percentage is tabbed at .607, down from the .679 he put up in his MVP season of 2010-11. ATH, like the rest of us, believes Rose has plenty to prove in the coming season.
8. Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.1
Lowry has put up right around 8.0 WARP in each of the last three seasons. He's in his prime and remains underrated. Could some younger guards behind Lowry climb over him on the value ladder? Sure. There are a number of point guards with higher ceilings, but few who have demonstrated such a consistent level of play.
9. Ty Lawson, Denver Nuggets
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.1
Lawson is a classic example of the usage/efficiency nexus. His usage rate has increased in every season of his career, and his true shooting percentage has declined. Just as important, though, his assist rate has steadily climbed even as his turnover rate has dropped. This season, ATH sees all those various elements coming together as Lawson steps into his prime.
10. Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 7.8
There is a school of thought that Lillard entered the NBA fully formed and, as outstanding as he was in his Rookie of the Year campaign, Lillard is as good now as he's ever going to be. This is the season we begin to find out if that's true. ATH projects that Lillard will take a significant step forward, with progress in shot selection and especially on the defensive end.
The next five: Kemba Walker, John Wall, Tony Parker, Jose Calderon, Ricky Rubio.
It's a point guard league right now, so there are some big names that slip outside the top 10. Rubio, who ranks 15th at 6.5 WARP, would rate as the No. 6 shooting guard, for example. So these are actually solid ratings for the up-and-coming Walker and Wall, even though they are both dinged for a combination of high usage rates and low shooting percentages.
Parker's standing represents a slip, but he'll turn 32 during the playoffs next season. That's a rough age for a guard historically speaking, and Parker's forecast sees a regression to what he was before his spike the last two seasons. He's still at 7.1 WARP, which put him in the top 10 of every other position except power forward.
Also: Rajon Rondo's existing injury limits his forecast to 48 games and a 4.7 WARP. It's an uncertain process with guys coming off serious injuries, but the one-year anniversary of his knee surgery isn't until Feb. 12. With a full projection of games played, Rondo's winning percentage would have landed him between Lawson and Lillard in the rankings.
Not saying that I agree with either, but I think it's a little illuminating.
Interesting.
I joke about Rondo being a Top 20 PG, but I said it before in defense of Rondo...
If Rondo came back and put up EXACTLY the same stats he did during last season (when he was leading us to a below .500 record and chasing assist records): 13.7 points, 11.1 assists, 5.6 rebounds, 1.8 steals ... That would be an EFF of 21.4.
This season:
#1 CP3 - 26.9
#2 Curry - 25.1
#3 Wall - 21.2
#4 Westbrook - 20.6
#5 Lillard - 19.6
#6 Lowry - 19.5
#7 MCW - 19.5
#8 Lawson - 19.0
#9 Bledsoe - 18.9
#10 Thomas - 18.6
#11 Dragic - 18.4
#12 Ellis - 18.3
#13 Holiday - 18.1
#14 Kyrie - 18.1
... then a dropoff
#15 Conley - 17.2
#16 Teague - 17.0
#17 Jennings - 17.0
#18 Parker - 17.0
#19 Kemba - 16.6
#20 Rubio - 16.5
Note: Deron Williams was a 19.5 last year and is typically on the list. Derrick Rose was a 22.9 in his prime. Tony Parker was a 21.2 last year.
Point is, in defense of Rondo... if he came back 100% like he played last year, he'd statistically be the 3rd best PG in the league this year. That's assuming they let him control the ball and chase assists in the same way Boston did early last year.
Still... there's 14 excellent PG's in the league right now. 15 if you include Tony Parker. 16 if you include Rondo. 17 if you include Rose. 18 if you include Deron. You have a consensus top 2 in CP3/Curry... then everyone from #3 to #18 is more or less interchangeable. Easiest position in the league to fill. You could swap the bottom (irving) with the top (wall) and probably not notice much of a difference.
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If he was chasing assist record, he wouldn't willingly throw it away. Just thought I'd put that out there.
But you're right, that number would put him in third on that list. I think he's better than Curry and probably right up there with CP3
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If he was chasing assist record, he wouldn't willingly throw it away. Just thought I'd put that out there.
But you're right, that number would put him in third on that list. I think he's better than Curry and probably right up there with CP3
If you don't think he was chasing assists last year I would like you to share some of your drugs.
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If he was chasing assist record, he wouldn't willingly throw it away. Just thought I'd put that out there.
But you're right, that number would put him in third on that list. I think he's better than Curry and probably right up there with CP3
If you don't think he was chasing assists last year I would like you to share some of your drugs.
I also want some of the drugs that will help me believe he's better than Curry.
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If he was chasing assist record, he wouldn't willingly throw it away. Just thought I'd put that out there.
But you're right, that number would put him in third on that list. I think he's better than Curry and probably right up there with CP3
If you don't think he was chasing assists last year I would like you to share some of your drugs.
I also want some of the drugs that will help me believe he's better than Curry.
Well those drugs are probably the same drugs that Curry received for his ankle surgeries, so I can sort of follow it.
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Lol. You guys are funny. Rondo is a better rebounder than Curry. Also a better passer. Gets his teammates involved and makes everybody on the floor look like a million buck.
Knowing Rondo's personality and the type of person he is, that streak meant jack**** to him. Yes, I'm sure the share thought of breaking a record like that (that is held by a Laker) would mean so much but again, we're talking about Rondo here. He couldn't care any less. He was putting up 10 plus assist almost every other game anyways. The fact that he willingly threw it away negate the thought of him chasing recs. He threw it away. Again, he threw it away when he could've kept it going. And I remember one game prior to that one where we were clearly losing and he had like 8 or 9 assist and Doc was the one who had to put him back in the game so as to get it to 10.
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You're right, an athlete competitive enough to make it to the highest level of play probably didn't care about a record that would prove he was, in some way, better than the rest of the league.
::)
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If he was chasing assist record, he wouldn't willingly throw it away. Just thought I'd put that out there.
But you're right, that number would put him in third on that list. I think he's better than Curry and probably right up there with CP3
If you don't think he was chasing assists last year I would like you to share some of your drugs.
Chasing assists = getting your teammates good shots. I can see why so many people are opposed to it.
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If he was chasing assist record, he wouldn't willingly throw it away. Just thought I'd put that out there.
But you're right, that number would put him in third on that list. I think he's better than Curry and probably right up there with CP3
If you don't think he was chasing assists last year I would like you to share some of your drugs.
Chasing assists = getting your teammates good shots. I can see why so many people are opposed to it.
I liked the assist streak. I had no problem with it. I don't see a problem with acknowledging that he was trying to break it.
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You're right, an athlete competitive enough to make it to the highest level of play probably didn't care about a record that would prove he was, in some way, better than the rest of the league.
::)
Yet he willingly threw it away. Explain that
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We're talking about the most selfless player in the league here. I don't think it's too farfetched to believe he's not after a stat he was already dominating in the first place
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You're right, an athlete competitive enough to make it to the highest level of play probably didn't care about a record that would prove he was, in some way, better than the rest of the league.
::)
Yet he willingly threw it away. Explain that
Heat of the moment reaction to Humphries and KG. I'll agree that he wasn't thinking about his assist streak *then.*
To act like he wasn't trying to break it is pure projection.
Rondo is chasing Magic Johnson's record 46-game streak in 1983-84, and he's nearing second on the list, three behind John Stockton's 37-game run in 1989. He could tie Johnson on Dec. 15 at the San Antonio Spurs if he doesn't miss or mess up.
Rondo, one of the most straightforward talkers in the NBA, almost allowed himself a moment of happiness after the game.
"I don't think that much about the streak, but I know that down the road, it will be something that I'm very proud that I accomplished," he said. "People will probably talk about what happened tonight, but I don't know. I wasn't born when Magic had his streak, and I wasn't watching yet when Stockton had his. There might have been games when they stayed in with a 30-point lead to get their streak going, but there wasn't as much attention paid back then."
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/2012/11/18/rajon-rondo-10-assists-streak-celtics-pistons/1713555/
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"chasing assists"? that's laughable. i'd love to hear how someone goes about doing this. and please pull out some BS stats to prove this.
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"chasing assists"? that's laughable. i'd love to hear how someone goes about doing this. and please pull out some BS stats to prove this.
Staying in during a blowout win or loss in order to continue qualifying for a record. That's chasing assists, and Rondo was heavily dissected for doing so in the Pistons game that the article just mentioned.
But don't let your reading comprehension get in the way of what you'd like to think these guys are like.
And, again, I liked the fact that he was chasing the assist record. But he was chasing it, the same way Kobe is chasing the all-time scoring title.
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"chasing assists"? that's laughable. i'd love to hear how someone goes about doing this. and please pull out some BS stats to prove this.
http://espn.go.com/boston/nba/story/_/id/8913391/is-boston-celtics-team-better-rajon-rondo
This was supposed to be Rondo's breakout season, not only in terms of stats and achievements, but also in terms of leadership and overall command. He was anointed the team leader in October. He was given an extra-long leash by coach Doc Rivers. His ultra-strong personality would now be even more of a factor on and off the court.
The Celtics were quite willing to live with that. Rondo was an All-Star, a difference-maker, a unique talent. But in the 38 games that Rondo played, what did the Celtics get? They got Rondo chasing a silly assists mark over the first 15 games, a chase that ended with his Humphries altercation. They got a Rondo who, according to one scout interviewed by the estimable Marc Stein, was "playing for steals and assists sometimes instead of making the winning play or the easier play or defending his guy like he should."
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Also, if you really wanted to, you could go check out the CB game threads. We talked a lot about the assist streak last year. It's not like this is all after-the-fact posturing.
Here ya go:
Pistons:
http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=60656.180
Nets:
http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=60788.135
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I joke about Rondo being a Top 20 PG, but I said it before in defense of Rondo...
If Rondo came back and put up EXACTLY the same stats he did during last season (when he was leading us to a below .500 record and chasing assist records): 13.7 points, 11.1 assists, 5.6 rebounds, 1.8 steals ... That would be an EFF of 21.4.
This season:
#1 CP3 - 26.9
#2 Curry - 25.1
#3 Wall - 21.2
#4 Westbrook - 20.6
#5 Lillard - 19.6
#6 Lowry - 19.5
#7 MCW - 19.5
#8 Lawson - 19.0
#9 Bledsoe - 18.9
#10 Thomas - 18.6
#11 Dragic - 18.4
#12 Ellis - 18.3
#13 Holiday - 18.1
#14 Kyrie - 18.1
... then a dropoff
#15 Conley - 17.2
#16 Teague - 17.0
#17 Jennings - 17.0
#18 Parker - 17.0
#19 Kemba - 16.6
#20 Rubio - 16.5
Note: Deron Williams was a 19.5 last year and is typically on the list. Derrick Rose was a 22.9 in his prime. Tony Parker was a 21.2 last year.
Point is, in defense of Rondo... if he came back 100% like he played last year, he'd statistically be the 3rd best PG in the league this year. That's assuming they let him control the ball and chase assists in the same way Boston did early last year.
Still... there's 14 excellent PG's in the league right now. 15 if you include Tony Parker. 16 if you include Rondo. 17 if you include Rose. 18 if you include Deron. You have a consensus top 2 in CP3/Curry... then everyone from #3 to #18 is more or less interchangeable. Easiest position in the league to fill. You could swap the bottom (irving) with the top (wall) and probably not notice much of a difference.
A couple of things worth pointing out: your numbers don't include defense, so you'd probably have to give a boost to Rondo and Paul. Also, there are things that point guards do that can have a large(ish) effect on the game, like control the pace of the game or direct an offense well. For instance people were comparing Rondo's stats to Crawford's and deciding there wasn't a big difference, but all the possessions we have that end up with 26 footers at the end of the shot clock don't make it into those ratings.
Having said that, if you did a quick and dirty average for Rondo over the last 5 years (add the 5 efficiencies and divide by 5) he'd be 5th on that list. If you did the same for the playoffs, he'd be 3rd. So using your method of comparing players Rondo's still near the top.
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Also Ellis is on that list, and he's decidedly not a point.
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Also, if you really wanted to, you could go check out the CB game threads. We talked a lot about the assist streak last year. It's not like this is all after-the-fact posturing.
Here ya go:
Pistons:
http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=60656.180
Nets:
http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=60788.135
I don't think there are many negative things (real or imagined) about Rondo that you couldn't find multiple threads about.
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Sure, but the point is that player acknowledged it, the fans saw it, and the media analyzed it. Saying Rondo was chasing the assist streak is about as controversial as saying Bradley's a good defender.
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rondo = overrated around here, underrated around the rest of the country, imo
will be interested how he performs now that he is "the man" on this team
I think that if you quantified how Rondo's rated around the league it would be well higher than how he's rated here.
Really? In their pre-season player rankings, ESPN ranked Rondo as the 27th best player in the league. However, I believe you have him as either a top 5 or top 10 player.
Obviously his knee injury affected his rankings. In his last full season ESPN ranked him 12th and he was 3rd team all-nba (13th in total votes), 11th in all-star voting, 2nd team all-defense. That's not that far from what I've said in the past (top 15 or so during the season, top 5 in the playoffs when healthy). People spend a lot of time ridiculing my opinion of Rondo but it's fairly mainstream.
Well, keep in mind that Westbrook, Rose, and Kobe were all ranked ahead of him and they all were dealing with injuries as well.
The league has changed a good bit since Rondo was ranked 12th. Harden, George, Irving, Lillard, Curry, etc. have all emerged. And with all the young players (Anthony Davis, Cousins, Drummond, etc.) continuing to rise, him being top 15, as you said, remains in question.
Sure, there's movement below him and players ahead of him drop. But from your ESPN rank, in Rondo's last 2 full seasons he was 17th and 12th. He's generally around that range in all-star voting, and he's been in that range for all-nba voting as well. I think you'd have a fairly tough time trying to demonstrate that he was viewed at a level lower than that outside of Boston prior to his injury. Again, it's relatively close to what I typically say about Rondo (although I don't have proof he's more highly rated in the playoffs, he's probably more known for stepping up his game in the postseason than anyone in the league).
Tim, I don't disagree with you that Rondo is in the 12-17 range of players when healthy. That 12-17 range is an average of him being better than that when he's trying and worse when he decides not to come play his hardest. But a lot of your comments have also led me to believe in the past that you find Rondo to be an indisputable top 5-10 NBA player at all times and at worst a top 2 PG in the league. I could be mistaken, but I feel like I read you comparing him favorably over Chris Paul a lot.
When New Orleans had a gun to their head to trade CP3, they wouldn't trade him for Rondo. They would trade him for Eric Gordon and they would trade for that other weird package that got overturned by Stern, but not for Rondo. A trade offer of Rondo for Steph Curry way before Curry became what he is now was also rejected by GS. I think that gives some perspective of where Rondo's value around the league lies.
I would say he's underrated outside of celtic nation. I think on celticsblog, its impossible to say because we have some posters who seriously underrate him, but also a few who IMO overrate him. If you are in one of those groups, you only read and remember the posts of the people in the opposite camp, so you assume that the majority of celticsblog thinks that way.
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Lol. You guys are funny. Rondo is a better rebounder than Curry. Also a better passer. Gets his teammates involved and makes everybody on the floor look like a million buck.
Oh boy.
Warriors have won 9 in a row. Curry is averaging 23.3 points, 9.6 assists, 4.7 rebounds, 2 steals on 45%/41%/86% shooting.
Sure... Rondo has better career rebounding numbers. If the main thing you look for in building a team is rebounding from your point guard, at least Rondo has that going for him.
As for Rondo making everyone on the floor look like a million buck... they were below .500 last season until he got injured. Then everyone collectively played better and made the playoffs.
Rondo isn't better than Curry. Just not true. He's a fine PG... statistically Rondo in his prime could be a Top 5 PG this year. But there are a couple guys who outclass him right now. 17 other guys who are basically interchangeable with him.
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rondo = overrated around here, underrated around the rest of the country, imo
will be interested how he performs now that he is "the man" on this team
I think that if you quantified how Rondo's rated around the league it would be well higher than how he's rated here.
Really? In their pre-season player rankings, ESPN ranked Rondo as the 27th best player in the league. However, I believe you have him as either a top 5 or top 10 player.
Obviously his knee injury affected his rankings. In his last full season ESPN ranked him 12th and he was 3rd team all-nba (13th in total votes), 11th in all-star voting, 2nd team all-defense. That's not that far from what I've said in the past (top 15 or so during the season, top 5 in the playoffs when healthy). People spend a lot of time ridiculing my opinion of Rondo but it's fairly mainstream.
Well, keep in mind that Westbrook, Rose, and Kobe were all ranked ahead of him and they all were dealing with injuries as well.
The league has changed a good bit since Rondo was ranked 12th. Harden, George, Irving, Lillard, Curry, etc. have all emerged. And with all the young players (Anthony Davis, Cousins, Drummond, etc.) continuing to rise, him being top 15, as you said, remains in question.
Sure, there's movement below him and players ahead of him drop. But from your ESPN rank, in Rondo's last 2 full seasons he was 17th and 12th. He's generally around that range in all-star voting, and he's been in that range for all-nba voting as well. I think you'd have a fairly tough time trying to demonstrate that he was viewed at a level lower than that outside of Boston prior to his injury. Again, it's relatively close to what I typically say about Rondo (although I don't have proof he's more highly rated in the playoffs, he's probably more known for stepping up his game in the postseason than anyone in the league).
Tim, I don't disagree with you that Rondo is in the 12-17 range of players when healthy. That 12-17 range is an average of him being better than that when he's trying and worse when he decides not to come play his hardest. But a lot of your comments have also led me to believe in the past that you find Rondo to be an indisputable top 5-10 NBA player at all times and at worst a top 2 PG in the league. I could be mistaken, but I feel like I read you comparing him favorably over Chris Paul a lot.
I think you're either misunderstanding my posts or you're being influenced by strawman representations of my posts. I think Rondo does some things better than Paul, other things not as well. Rondo goes through some stretches when I think he's playing better than any other pg. So (obviously) does Paul, so do other point guards at times. I think Rondo (when healthy) plays like a top 5 player in the postseason, obviously I wouldn't claim that was indisputable.
When New Orleans had a gun to their head to trade CP3, they wouldn't trade him for Rondo. They would trade him for Eric Gordon and they would trade for that other weird package that got overturned by Stern, but not for Rondo. A trade offer of Rondo for Steph Curry way before Curry became what he is now was also rejected by GS. I think that gives some perspective of where Rondo's value around the league lies.
The Gordon trade included an unprotected (IIRC) pick from a team that had been doormats the previous 3-4 years. It wasn't Rondo or Gordon straight up for Paul, and you don't know what the rest of the package Danny offered or NO wanted were. In any case, people base Rondo (and others) on rumors or opinions, and give those rumors more or less credibility based on their existing opinions. Case in point Courtney Lee. You could find tons of posts about his having negative trade value. Houston refused to take him in a trade, yet Memphis wants him. Which of those two proposed deals tells you more about Lee's value around the league? Don't they say opposite things about his value?
I would say he's underrated outside of celtic nation. I think on celticsblog, its impossible to say because we have some posters who seriously underrate him, but also a few who IMO overrate him. If you are in one of those groups, you only read and remember the posts of the people in the opposite camp, so you assume that the majority of celticsblog thinks that way.
I suppose, although I don't think top 15 or so player in the league would be middle of the road here.
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Lol. You guys are funny. Rondo is a better rebounder than Curry. Also a better passer. Gets his teammates involved and makes everybody on the floor look like a million buck.
Oh boy.
Warriors have won 9 in a row. Curry is averaging 23.3 points, 9.6 assists, 4.7 rebounds, 2 steals on 45%/41%/86% shooting.
Sure... Rondo has better career rebounding numbers. If the main thing you look for in building a team is rebounding from your point guard, at least Rondo has that going for him.
As for Rondo making everyone on the floor look like a million buck... they were below .500 last season until he got injured. Then everyone collectively played better and made the playoffs.
There were plenty of reasons for the team's uneven play last year besides Rondo's injury. I'm sure many people here could break it down for you. As for Rondo making other players look better, players that had their most efficient scoring years with Rondo controlling the offense include PP, RA, Shaq and Wilcox.
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Lol. You guys are funny. Rondo is a better rebounder than Curry. Also a better passer. Gets his teammates involved and makes everybody on the floor look like a million buck.
Oh boy.
Warriors have won 9 in a row. Curry is averaging 23.3 points, 9.6 assists, 4.7 rebounds, 2 steals on 45%/41%/86% shooting.
Sure... Rondo has better career rebounding numbers. If the main thing you look for in building a team is rebounding from your point guard, at least Rondo has that going for him.
As for Rondo making everyone on the floor look like a million buck... they were below .500 last season until he got injured. Then everyone collectively played better and made the playoffs.
There were plenty of reasons for the team's uneven play last year besides Rondo's injury. I'm sure many people here could break it down for you. As for Rondo making other players look better, players that had their most efficient scoring years with Rondo controlling the offense include PP, RA, Shaq and Wilcox.
Read what he wrote again.
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Lol. You guys are funny. Rondo is a better rebounder than Curry. Also a better passer. Gets his teammates involved and makes everybody on the floor look like a million buck.
Oh boy.
Warriors have won 9 in a row. Curry is averaging 23.3 points, 9.6 assists, 4.7 rebounds, 2 steals on 45%/41%/86% shooting.
Sure... Rondo has better career rebounding numbers. If the main thing you look for in building a team is rebounding from your point guard, at least Rondo has that going for him.
As for Rondo making everyone on the floor look like a million buck... they were below .500 last season until he got injured. Then everyone collectively played better and made the playoffs.
There were plenty of reasons for the team's uneven play last year besides Rondo's injury. I'm sure many people here could break it down for you. As for Rondo making other players look better, players that had their most efficient scoring years with Rondo controlling the offense include PP, RA, Shaq and Wilcox.
You can also KG to that list (yeah, I said it).
And I don't get the uber amnesia with regards to last season - after Rondo went down we continued play .500 ball and got bouncedin the 1st round.
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Lol. You guys are funny. Rondo is a better rebounder than Curry. Also a better passer. Gets his teammates involved and makes everybody on the floor look like a million buck.
Oh boy.
Warriors have won 9 in a row. Curry is averaging 23.3 points, 9.6 assists, 4.7 rebounds, 2 steals on 45%/41%/86% shooting.
Sure... Rondo has better career rebounding numbers. If the main thing you look for in building a team is rebounding from your point guard, at least Rondo has that going for him.
As for Rondo making everyone on the floor look like a million buck... they were below .500 last season until he got injured. Then everyone collectively played better and made the playoffs.
There were plenty of reasons for the team's uneven play last year besides Rondo's injury. I'm sure many people here could break it down for you. As for Rondo making other players look better, players that had their most efficient scoring years with Rondo controlling the offense include PP, RA, Shaq and Wilcox.
Read what he wrote again.
I don't think I missed his point. I suppose I could have been more verbose in my response though.
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Also, if you really wanted to, you could go check out the CB game threads. We talked a lot about the assist streak last year. It's not like this is all after-the-fact posturing.
Here ya go:
Pistons:
http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=60656.180
Nets:
http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=60788.135
I don't think there are many negative things (real or imagined) about Rondo that you couldn't find multiple threads about.
What are the "real" negative things in your opinion? This should be interesting coming from the ultimate Rondo apologist.
Again, just to clarify, I do like Rondo. However, I am a C's fan first and foremost and my allegiance lies with the team not a particular player. So with that in mind, it's quite easy to point out flaws and call a spade a spade. You? I'm not so sure. If Rondo were traded to another team I wonder if you would frequent C's blog as much.
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Lol. You guys are funny. Rondo is a better rebounder than Curry. Also a better passer. Gets his teammates involved and makes everybody on the floor look like a million buck.
Oh boy.
Warriors have won 9 in a row. Curry is averaging 23.3 points, 9.6 assists, 4.7 rebounds, 2 steals on 45%/41%/86% shooting.
Sure... Rondo has better career rebounding numbers. If the main thing you look for in building a team is rebounding from your point guard, at least Rondo has that going for him.
As for Rondo making everyone on the floor look like a million buck... they were below .500 last season until he got injured. Then everyone collectively played better and made the playoffs.
There were plenty of reasons for the team's uneven play last year besides Rondo's injury. I'm sure many people here could break it down for you. As for Rondo making other players look better, players that had their most efficient scoring years with Rondo controlling the offense include PP, RA, Shaq and Wilcox.
Read what he wrote again.
I don't think I missed his point. I suppose I could have been more verbose in my response though.
He said that the team improved AFTER he was injured. He's not blaming Rondo's injury for the team's "uneven play" he's blaming Rondo's presence for it.
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Lol. You guys are funny. Rondo is a better rebounder than Curry. Also a better passer. Gets his teammates involved and makes everybody on the floor look like a million buck.
Oh boy.
Warriors have won 9 in a row. Curry is averaging 23.3 points, 9.6 assists, 4.7 rebounds, 2 steals on 45%/41%/86% shooting.
Sure... Rondo has better career rebounding numbers. If the main thing you look for in building a team is rebounding from your point guard, at least Rondo has that going for him.
As for Rondo making everyone on the floor look like a million buck... they were below .500 last season until he got injured. Then everyone collectively played better and made the playoffs.
There were plenty of reasons for the team's uneven play last year besides Rondo's injury. I'm sure many people here could break it down for you. As for Rondo making other players look better, players that had their most efficient scoring years with Rondo controlling the offense include PP, RA, Shaq and Wilcox.
Read what he wrote again.
I don't think I missed his point. I suppose I could have been more verbose in my response though.
He said that the team improved AFTER he was injured. He's not blaming Rondo's injury for the team's "uneven play" he's blaming Rondo's presence for it.
The team did not improve after he was injured. Most likely had he been with the team, the record would have been the same because of the homestead. The team was painfully awful in the postseason and in the latter part of March and April. Same in the 2011-2012 year. Team improved in the same months. TBH if you look at the Nets slow start, PP and KG are a key reason to their slow start. Both PP and KG stats weren't great in the first half of last season. One could make an obvious connection that had they played better in the first portion of the season the record would have been better. But no one wants to go there I see.
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When New Orleans had a gun to their head to trade CP3, they wouldn't trade him for Rondo. They would trade him for Eric Gordon and they would trade for that other weird package that got overturned by Stern, but not for Rondo. A trade offer of Rondo for Steph Curry way before Curry became what he is now was also rejected by GS. I think that gives some perspective of where Rondo's value around the league lies.
The Gordon trade included an unprotected (IIRC) pick from a team that had been doormats the previous 3-4 years. It wasn't Rondo or Gordon straight up for Paul, and you don't know what the rest of the package Danny offered or NO wanted were. In any case, people base Rondo (and others) on rumors or opinions, and give those rumors more or less credibility based on their existing opinions. Case in point Courtney Lee. You could find tons of posts about his having negative trade value. Houston refused to take him in a trade, yet Memphis wants him. Which of those two proposed deals tells you more about Lee's value around the league? Don't they say opposite things about his value?
Good point on the draft pick, that could have been a significant part of the deal.
I think you're far off on your Lee comparison though. You're comparing two PG-PG swaps that were rejected to Houston who has the #1 SG in the NBA not wanting to acquire a very mediocre SG yet Memphis trading away a very mediocre PG for a mediocre SG which is a position they are thin at. I still kind of get what you're trying to say, but my attempt wasn't to provide concrete evidence of rankings or anything, it was just to give "some perspective".
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Lol. You guys are funny. Rondo is a better rebounder than Curry. Also a better passer. Gets his teammates involved and makes everybody on the floor look like a million buck.
Oh boy.
Warriors have won 9 in a row. Curry is averaging 23.3 points, 9.6 assists, 4.7 rebounds, 2 steals on 45%/41%/86% shooting.
Sure... Rondo has better career rebounding numbers. If the main thing you look for in building a team is rebounding from your point guard, at least Rondo has that going for him.
As for Rondo making everyone on the floor look like a million buck... they were below .500 last season until he got injured. Then everyone collectively played better and made the playoffs.
There were plenty of reasons for the team's uneven play last year besides Rondo's injury. I'm sure many people here could break it down for you. As for Rondo making other players look better, players that had their most efficient scoring years with Rondo controlling the offense include PP, RA, Shaq and Wilcox.
Read what he wrote again.
I don't think I missed his point. I suppose I could have been more verbose in my response though.
He said that the team improved AFTER he was injured. He's not blaming Rondo's injury for the team's "uneven play" he's blaming Rondo's presence for it.
The team did not improve after he was injured. Most likely had he been with the team, the record would have been the same because of the homestead. The team was painfully awful in the postseason and in the latter part of March and April. Same in the 2011-2012 year. Team improved in the same months. TBH if you look at the Nets slow start, PP and KG are a key reason to their slow start. Both PP and KG stats weren't great in the first half of last season. One could make an obvious connection that had they played better in the first portion of the season the record would have been better. But no one wants to go there I see.
Welcome to Delusion Land
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Lol. You guys are funny. Rondo is a better rebounder than Curry. Also a better passer. Gets his teammates involved and makes everybody on the floor look like a million buck.
Oh boy.
Warriors have won 9 in a row. Curry is averaging 23.3 points, 9.6 assists, 4.7 rebounds, 2 steals on 45%/41%/86% shooting.
Sure... Rondo has better career rebounding numbers. If the main thing you look for in building a team is rebounding from your point guard, at least Rondo has that going for him.
As for Rondo making everyone on the floor look like a million buck... they were below .500 last season until he got injured. Then everyone collectively played better and made the playoffs.
There were plenty of reasons for the team's uneven play last year besides Rondo's injury. I'm sure many people here could break it down for you. As for Rondo making other players look better, players that had their most efficient scoring years with Rondo controlling the offense include PP, RA, Shaq and Wilcox.
Read what he wrote again.
I don't think I missed his point. I suppose I could have been more verbose in my response though.
He said that the team improved AFTER he was injured. He's not blaming Rondo's injury for the team's "uneven play" he's blaming Rondo's presence for it.
I know what he said. I'm not sure if your statement shows much understanding of what the term uneven play means. If the team played great with Rondo and terrible without him that's uneven play. If the team played terrible with Rondo and great without him that's also uneven play. If the team showed no consistency throughout the year and swung back and forth between playing well and poorly (this was what happened, btw), it's still, you guessed it, uneven play.
If you think the team played consistently after Rondo was injured you weren't following the team too closely.
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delusion in what? the team sucked in the postseason. The Knicks in the 2nd round showed how much the team sucked because the Knicks sucked badly in that round. Delusion is for those that thought the team improved. Compare last season to 2011-2012 season. Cant even bring a decent argument.
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delusion in what? the team sucked in the postseason. The Knicks in the 2nd round showed how much the team sucked because the Knicks sucked badly in that round. Delusion is for those that thought the team improved. Compare last season to 2011-2012 season. Cant even bring a decent argument.
I was agreeing with you...........
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Lol. You guys are funny. Rondo is a better rebounder than Curry. Also a better passer. Gets his teammates involved and makes everybody on the floor look like a million buck.
Oh boy.
Warriors have won 9 in a row. Curry is averaging 23.3 points, 9.6 assists, 4.7 rebounds, 2 steals on 45%/41%/86% shooting.
Sure... Rondo has better career rebounding numbers. If the main thing you look for in building a team is rebounding from your point guard, at least Rondo has that going for him.
As for Rondo making everyone on the floor look like a million buck... they were below .500 last season until he got injured. Then everyone collectively played better and made the playoffs.
Rondo isn't better than Curry. Just not true. He's a fine PG... statistically Rondo in his prime could be a Top 5 PG this year. But there are a couple guys who outclass him right now. 17 other guys who are basically interchangeable with him.
I'd love to be able to get one of the 17 or 18 best, interchangeable centers to go with our interchangeable point guard. I'll take Hibbert, Gasol, Pekovic, Noah, or Drummond, it doesn't matter which; centers like that are basically a dime a dozen anyway.
Marc Gasol is currently injured and well past his prime. Maybe we could get him for an expiring contract and a draft pick.
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delusion in what? the team sucked in the postseason. The Knicks in the 2nd round showed how much the team sucked because the Knicks sucked badly in that round. Delusion is for those that thought the team improved. Compare last season to 2011-2012 season. Cant even bring a decent argument.
I was agreeing with you...........
ooops, my bad. then my above post was an addendum to the post I had wrote to the quoted posted I was responding to if that make sense. If not, oh well.
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When New Orleans had a gun to their head to trade CP3, they wouldn't trade him for Rondo. They would trade him for Eric Gordon and they would trade for that other weird package that got overturned by Stern, but not for Rondo. A trade offer of Rondo for Steph Curry way before Curry became what he is now was also rejected by GS. I think that gives some perspective of where Rondo's value around the league lies.
The Gordon trade included an unprotected (IIRC) pick from a team that had been doormats the previous 3-4 years. It wasn't Rondo or Gordon straight up for Paul, and you don't know what the rest of the package Danny offered or NO wanted were. In any case, people base Rondo (and others) on rumors or opinions, and give those rumors more or less credibility based on their existing opinions. Case in point Courtney Lee. You could find tons of posts about his having negative trade value. Houston refused to take him in a trade, yet Memphis wants him. Which of those two proposed deals tells you more about Lee's value around the league? Don't they say opposite things about his value?
Good point on the draft pick, that could have been a significant part of the deal.
I think you're far off on your Lee comparison though. You're comparing two PG-PG swaps that were rejected to Houston who has the #1 SG in the NBA not wanting to acquire a very mediocre SG yet Memphis trading away a very mediocre PG for a mediocre SG which is a position they are thin at. I still kind of get what you're trying to say, but my attempt wasn't to provide concrete evidence of rankings or anything, it was just to give "some perspective".
Not a lot of perspective though. There are a lot of reasons trades are made or passed on beyond whether the respective franchises think one player's better than the other. You also don't have the full story on what Danny was offering and asking for in either trade you're mentioning. You also aren't talking about more recent rumors, such as the Rondo/Dwight Howard rumors from last year. What does that add to the perspective?
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Lol. You guys are funny. Rondo is a better rebounder than Curry. Also a better passer. Gets his teammates involved and makes everybody on the floor look like a million buck.
Oh boy.
Warriors have won 9 in a row. Curry is averaging 23.3 points, 9.6 assists, 4.7 rebounds, 2 steals on 45%/41%/86% shooting.
Sure... Rondo has better career rebounding numbers. If the main thing you look for in building a team is rebounding from your point guard, at least Rondo has that going for him.
As for Rondo making everyone on the floor look like a million buck... they were below .500 last season until he got injured. Then everyone collectively played better and made the playoffs.
Rondo isn't better than Curry. Just not true. He's a fine PG... statistically Rondo in his prime could be a Top 5 PG this year. But there are a couple guys who outclass him right now. 17 other guys who are basically interchangeable with him.
I'd love to be able to get one of the 17 or 18 best, interchangeable centers to go with our interchangeable point guard. I'll take Hibbert, Gasol, Pekovic, Noah, or Drummond, it doesn't matter which; centers like that are basically a dime a dozen anyway.
Marc Gasol is currently injured and well past his prime. Maybe we could get him for an expiring contract and a draft pick.
Valid point. I read you loud and clear. TP.
I'm sending you a private message.
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Rondo isn't better than Curry. Just not true. He's a fine PG... statistically Rondo in his prime could be a Top 5 PG this year. But there are a couple guys who outclass him right now. 17 other guys who are basically interchangeable with him.
I think this is really the crux of the discussion. Does the fact that there are (apparently) 17 other PGs with "similar" efficiency ratings mean that there are 17 players that are basically interchangeable with him? Are there skills that point guards rely on that aren't measured by that stat? Can those skills vary greatly from pg to pg and can they have much of an impact on the game?
From your list, 17 players are probably within 5 on efficiency rating from Rondo's from last year. If that's "interchangeable", does that apply to other positions too? Does that mean players like Dirk, Pau, Amare and Webber are interchangeable with Duncan because their career efficiencies are close to his? I'd guess that Popovich would take issue with that.
Also, just out of curiosity, why, in your scenario, would a player with an efficiency rating about 4 points higher than Rondo's outclass him, yet players with ratings 5 points lower than him be basically interchangeable with him?
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Rondo isn't better than Curry. Just not true. He's a fine PG... statistically Rondo in his prime could be a Top 5 PG this year. But there are a couple guys who outclass him right now. 17 other guys who are basically interchangeable with him.
I think this is really the crux of the discussion. Does the fact that there are (apparently) 17 other PGs with "similar" efficiency ratings mean that there are 17 players that are basically interchangeable with him? Are there skills that point guards rely on that aren't measured by that stat? Can those skills vary greatly from pg to pg and can they have much of an impact on the game?
From your list, 17 players are probably within 5 on efficiency rating from Rondo's from last year. If that's "interchangeable", does that apply to other positions too? Does that mean players like Dirk, Pau, Amare and Webber are interchangeable with Duncan because their career efficiencies are close to his? I'd guess that Popovich would take issue with that.
Also, just out of curiosity, why, in your scenario, would a player with an efficiency rating about 4 points higher than Rondo's outclass him, yet players with ratings 5 points lower than him be basically interchangeable with him?
Tiers.
I think Rondo is great. I love the guy. But I don't think he'd impact the game on the level of Stephen Curry right now. That guy is an effective defender and completely carries his offense. You could build a contender around Curry's efficient offense. Dude is like Ray in his prime mixed with upper-level playmaking skills (nearly averaging 10 assists). Rondo does a lot of things really well, but I don't think he could be the best player on a champion.
Also, earlier you mentioned how KG, Paul and ray were more efficient "because of Rondo". That's like arguing that LeBron, Wade and Bosh are more efficient on Miami, "because of Chalmers". Having talent on the court makes everyone more efficient. Yeah, I agree that Rondo had a part in that. But look at it like this ... years ago well before Steph Curry broke out into a franchise player, I argued that our team would be MORE efficient if we swapped Rondo for the sharp shooting Curry. My thought process was that Rondo was a liability shooting the ball and that put extra pressure on Ray, KG and Pierce. Rondo's passing benefitted them, but having someone out there who couldn't shoot also hurt them. I figured if you stuck Curry (then shooting 45%/44%/90%) out there... it just would have made things even easier for KG, Pierce and Ray. You'd now have two of the best shooters in the league spreading the floor. You couldn't slack off them at all... Pierce would essentially never get double teamed. It would make things even easier.
Point is, Rondo may in-fact be the best passer in the league. He's probably a significantly better passer than Kyrie Irving (currently #14 in EFF). But Kyrie Irving is a significantly better shooter than Rondo. If you swapped Rondo for Irving, it's possible we'd lose something and we'd gain something. The way we played would change, but it wouldn't necessarily make us worse.
Anyhow. I backed you up. If Rondo duplicated his stats last year, he'd be the 3rd best PG in the league this year. I'd definitely take Rondo in his prime over the likes of Ty Lawson or Jrue Holiday. But we don't really know how much "better" Denver would be with Rondo instead of Lawson. In theory it would be significant, right? I think that's probably a question a lot of the league asks... and probably why Ainge has failed to find great return for Rondo in the years he was shopping him.
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The 9th pick gets us Gary Harris, who is an upgrade at the 2 and would allow us to let Bradley walk, which would also save us like $6 mil a year. Any top 10 pick is good, although a top 7 is really really good and a top 3 pick is franchise changing.
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Also, earlier you mentioned how KG, Paul and ray were more efficient "because of Rondo". That's like arguing that LeBron, Wade and Bosh are more efficient on Miami, "because of Chalmers".
Hold on there.
Mario Chalmers is a mediocre PG in almost every respect, and his only real above average skills are his ability to hit open threes and his ability to play solid defense. He's basically Derek Fisher 2.0, but without the clutch. The only reason he is the starting PG in Miami is because they are about a gazillion dollars over the salary cap (due to said big three) and they cannot afford an upgrade at the point- anybody they could get for the mini-midlevel exception would be more of a sideways step rather than an upgrade. The guy is a chump and would be a backup PG on 70% of teams out there. Miami sucks at only two positions, and PG happens to be one of them...hence he gets to start.
Rajon Rondo on the other hand is arguably the greatest playmaking PG in the entire league for the last 2-3 years running. Aside from Chris Paul and Steven Nash there has not been a single PG in the league with the court vision, IQ and passing skills anywhere near that of Rondo since Jason Kidd and John Stockton were in their primes. No, even in his prime Deron was never on that level.
I think it's pretty difficult to deny the intangible impact that Jason Kidd had on the teams he played on. He was never a great scoring PG, but he could still score 10-14 points per night. His ability to combine that with exceptional defense, the best rebounding from his position, and the best playmaking skills in the league all combined to make him without question the best PG of his era. Not only that, but he is a guarantee for the Hall of Fame and will go down in history as one of the greatest PG's to ever play.
Guys like Richard Jefferson and Kenyon Martin practically owe their careers to Jason Kidd, since he made both of those guys look like they were twice as good offensively as they really were.
Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett all signed with Boston as they had just reached the plateu of their careers, and after 2008 they all started a slow (but sure) decline. Despite this, all three of those guys displayed career high scoring percentages while playing with Rondo:
1) In 2009-2010 Paul Pierce shot 47.2% from the field and 41.4% from three. Both career highs. In 2010-2010 he upped his FG% to 49.7%, which was a new career high.
2) In 2010-2011 Ray Allen shot 49.1% from the field and 44.4% from three. Both career highs. In 2012-2013 he shot 45.3% from three, which was a new career high.
3) Kevin Garnett shot over 52% from the field for four consecutive seasons after coming to Boston - 53.9% in 2007-2008, 53.1% in 2008-2009, 52.1% in 2009-2010 and 52.8% in 2010-2011. Before coming to Boston he only shot over 52% one time (2005-2006) and his next best after that was 50.2% (2002-2003, 2004-2005).
4) Since the big 3 era began Kendrick Perkins never shot below 54% from the field. He shot 61.5% in 2007-2008, 57.7% in 2008-2009, 60.2% in 2009-2010 and 54.2% as a Celtic in 2010-2011. Since being traded to OKC he has never shot above 50% from the field (his best was 49.3% as a member of the Thunder in 2010-2011).
Despite the fact that Pierce, Ray and KG were all starting to decline when they came together in the 2007-2008 season, all three of thse guys (and Perk) all scored with career high efficiency while in Boston, playing alongside Rondo.
Yes, you can argue that in the early years some of those numbers (like KG's career high efficiency in 2007-2008) came before Rondo developed into the elite playmaker he is, and yes you could argue some of that had to do with the fact that three hall of famers (who were previously the best player on their team) had now combined and hence had two other hall of famers to distract defenders. That doesn't explain how Perkin's shooting numbers dropped as soon as he moved to OKC, playing alongside guys like Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka and Harden.
I've no doubts you can tweak those stas to tell you a different story if you want to, but I assure you those career high shooting percentages you saw from KG, Pierce, Ray and Perk while in Boston had a lot to do with Rondo's ability to constantly get them the ball in exactly the right place, at exactly the right time. Pierce probably benefited least from this as he's good at creating his own shot. Ray, Kevin and Kendrick however were all guys who without a doubt scored a LOT of points off Rajon Rondo assists.
I find it very hard to believe that those guys would have put up career high scorign efficiency numbers at that age if they had today's Mario Chalmers as their PG. I imagine Pierce would have never shot over 46%, KG would have stayed up around 51% and Ray would have been down around 45%-45% at best.
Now, if somebody asks you whether Jason Kidd made his teammates better - would you say yes? How about Steve Nash? How about Chris Paul and John Stockton? I think most people would agree that every one of those guys made everybody around them better. Yes Paul, Nash and Stockton were also great shooters. Kidd was not. Point Guards with elite playmaking ability are incredibly valuable in this league, and also incredibly rare. Hell even all-star calibre big men are more common in the NBA then PG's with the playmaking ability of a Chris Paul or Rajon Rondo.
If Rondo was a complete non-factor offensively (i.e. his offensive impact was on par with Gerald Wallace in his current state) then I would say yes, that offsets the valueof his passing skills. That's not the case though, and Rondo has still been a double figure scorer every season since his sophomore year, and in that time has only ever once shot below 47.5% from the field. If you can score at least 10 PPG and do so while shooting at least 47% from the field, as a pass-first PG, then you are not an offensive liability.
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Rondo isn't better than Curry. Just not true. He's a fine PG... statistically Rondo in his prime could be a Top 5 PG this year. But there are a couple guys who outclass him right now. 17 other guys who are basically interchangeable with him.
I think this is really the crux of the discussion. Does the fact that there are (apparently) 17 other PGs with "similar" efficiency ratings mean that there are 17 players that are basically interchangeable with him? Are there skills that point guards rely on that aren't measured by that stat? Can those skills vary greatly from pg to pg and can they have much of an impact on the game?
From your list, 17 players are probably within 5 on efficiency rating from Rondo's from last year. If that's "interchangeable", does that apply to other positions too? Does that mean players like Dirk, Pau, Amare and Webber are interchangeable with Duncan because their career efficiencies are close to his? I'd guess that Popovich would take issue with that.
Also, just out of curiosity, why, in your scenario, would a player with an efficiency rating about 4 points higher than Rondo's outclass him, yet players with ratings 5 points lower than him be basically interchangeable with him?
Tiers.
So, in other words, nothing more than your desire to make Rondo sound like he's a dime a dozen. 25.1-21.4? That's a significant difference. 21.4-16.5? Close enough that they're interchangeable. Gotcha.
I think Rondo is great. I love the guy. But I don't think he'd impact the game on the level of Stephen Curry right now. That guy is an effective defender and completely carries his offense. You could build a contender around Curry's efficient offense. Dude is like Ray in his prime mixed with upper-level playmaking skills (nearly averaging 10 assists). Rondo does a lot of things really well, but I don't think he could be the best player on a champion.
He doesn't really have upper level playmaking skills, his assist/turnover ration isn't that high, neither is his assist/bad pass ratio. He also has more ballhandling turnovers than Rondo fwiw. He is a good scorer though, whether you can build a contender around him remains to be seen. Rondo's been the best player on teams that went to the finals and conference finals before (you can verify that with your rating system) so it's likely he could be the best player on a champion. Notice the raising of the bar, though? Contender for one, champion for the other?
Also, earlier you mentioned how KG, Paul and ray were more efficient "because of Rondo". That's like arguing that LeBron, Wade and Bosh are more efficient on Miami, "because of Chalmers".
At least it would be if Chalmers controlled Miami's offense as much as Rondo did the Celts. The thing is, you really don't see a difference between the two cases. Also, if you look at PP/RA, their most efficient scoring came not when the big three was assembled but when Rondo was more in control of the offense.
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Also, earlier you mentioned how KG, Paul and ray were more efficient "because of Rondo". That's like arguing that LeBron, Wade and Bosh are more efficient on Miami, "because of Chalmers".
Hold on there.
Mario Chalmers is a mediocre PG in almost every respect, and his only real above average skills are his ability to hit open threes and his ability to play solid defense. He's basically Derek Fisher 2.0, but without the clutch. The only reason he is the starting PG in Miami is because they are about a gazillion dollars over the salary cap (due to said big three) and they cannot afford an upgrade at the point- anybody they could get for the mini-midlevel exception would be more of a sideways step rather than an upgrade. The guy is a chump and would be a backup PG on 70% of teams out there. Miami sucks at only two positions, and PG happens to be one of them...hence he gets to start.
Rajon Rondo on the other hand is arguably the greatest playmaking PG in the entire league for the last 2-3 years running. Aside from Chris Paul and Steven Nash there has not been a single PG in the league with the court vision, IQ and passing skills anywhere near that of Rondo since Jason Kidd and John Stockton were in their primes. No, even in his prime Deron was never on that level.
I think it's pretty difficult to deny the intangible impact that Jason Kidd had on the teams he played on. He was never a great scoring PG, but he could still score 10-14 points per night. His ability to combine that with exceptional defense, the best rebounding from his position, and the best playmaking skills in the league all combined to make him without question the best PG of his era. Not only that, but he is a guarantee for the Hall of Fame and will go down in history as one of the greatest PG's to ever play.
Guys like Richard Jefferson and Kenyon Martin practically owe their careers to Jason Kidd, since he made both of those guys look like they were twice as good offensively as they really were.
Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett all signed with Boston as they had just reached the plateu of their careers, and after 2008 they all started a slow (but sure) decline. Despite this, all three of those guys displayed career high scoring percentages while playing with Rondo:
1) In 2009-2010 Paul Pierce shot 47.2% from the field and 41.4% from three. Both career highs. In 2010-2010 he upped his FG% to 49.7%, which was a new career high.
2) In 2010-2011 Ray Allen shot 49.1% from the field and 44.4% from three. Both career highs. In 2012-2013 he shot 45.3% from three, which was a new career high.
3) Kevin Garnett shot over 52% from the field for four consecutive seasons after coming to Boston - 53.9% in 2007-2008, 53.1% in 2008-2009, 52.1% in 2009-2010 and 52.8% in 2010-2011. Before coming to Boston he only shot over 52% one time (2005-2006) and his next best after that was 50.2% (2002-2003, 2004-2005).
4) Since the big 3 era began Kendrick Perkins never shot below 54% from the field. He shot 61.5% in 2007-2008, 57.7% in 2008-2009, 60.2% in 2009-2010 and 54.2% as a Celtic in 2010-2011. Since being traded to OKC he has never shot above 50% from the field (his best was 49.3% as a member of the Thunder in 2010-2011).
Despite the fact that Pierce, Ray and KG were all starting to decline when they came together in the 2007-2008 season, all three of thse guys (and Perk) all scored with career high efficiency while in Boston, playing alongside Rondo.
Yes, you can argue that in the early years some of those numbers (like KG's career high efficiency in 2007-2008) came before Rondo developed into the elite playmaker he is, and yes you could argue some of that had to do with the fact that three hall of famers (who were previously the best player on their team) had now combined and hence had two other hall of famers to distract defenders. That doesn't explain how Perkin's shooting numbers dropped as soon as he moved to OKC, playing alongside guys like Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka and Harden.
I've no doubts you can tweak those stas to tell you a different story if you want to, but I assure you those career high shooting percentages you saw from KG, Pierce, Ray and Perk while in Boston had a lot to do with Rondo's ability to constantly get them the ball in exactly the right place, at exactly the right time. Pierce probably benefited least from this as he's good at creating his own shot. Ray, Kevin and Kendrick however were all guys who without a doubt scored a LOT of points off Rajon Rondo assists.
I find it very hard to believe that those guys would have put up career high scorign efficiency numbers at that age if they had today's Mario Chalmers as their PG. I imagine Pierce would have never shot over 46%, KG would have stayed up around 51% and Ray would have been down around 45%-45% at best.
Now, if somebody asks you whether Jason Kidd made his teammates better - would you say yes? How about Steve Nash? How about Chris Paul and John Stockton? I think most people would agree that every one of those guys made everybody around them better. Yes Paul, Nash and Stockton were also great shooters. Kidd was not. Point Guards with elite playmaking ability are incredibly valuable in this league, and also incredibly rare. Hell even all-star calibre big men are more common in the NBA then PG's with the playmaking ability of a Chris Paul or Rajon Rondo.
If Rondo was a complete non-factor offensively (i.e. his offensive impact was on par with Gerald Wallace in his current state) then I would say yes, that offsets the valueof his passing skills. That's not the case though, and Rondo has still been a double figure scorer every season since his sophomore year, and in that time has only ever once shot below 47.5% from the field. If you can score at least 10 PPG and do so while shooting at least 47% from the field, as a pass-first PG, then you are not an offensive liability.
That's quite a post. To get back to my "crux of the argument" post, there's a difference between comparing Rondo to other point guards in these terms or "it doesn't really matter whether your point guard is Rondo or Lowry because they have similar efficiency ratings". Which approach you take to comparing point guards will have a large impact on your relative opinion of Rondo.
I've brought this up in the past, but a couple of years ago a Wizards fan wanted to prove that Wall was just as good a passer as Rondo, the Wizards just didn't shoot as well as the Celts. What he found was the opposite of what he expected. The Celts increase in scoring efficiency was much greater off of passes from Rondo than the increase in efficiency the Wizards saw with passes from Wall. Where do things like that factor into the stat-based rankings?
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Kidd improved as a shooter, I don't see that happening with Rondo. At least Kidd could shoot 35% at 3 throughout his career, while Rondo has no real 3 range to speak of. And Kidd wasn't a huge FT liability, shooting a respectable .785 for his career. Rondo still plays like he's afraid to get fouled.
Rondo's positives are legitimate, but his unique negatives make him a difficult player to build around. There's no urgency to trade him now as he's taking his time coming back and still has a year remaining on his deal, but I wouldn't make him untouchable.
The main point is, the future star of this team is not on the roster yet. For all his brilliance, teams with Kidd as the best player never seriously contended for a title (see also Nash, Steve) and he was the best PG of his generation.
If/when the Celtics are able to acquire the next franchise cornerstone then the question is does Rondo fit in with that player skillwise and agewise, not the other way around.
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Also, earlier you mentioned how KG, Paul and ray were more efficient "because of Rondo". That's like arguing that LeBron, Wade and Bosh are more efficient on Miami, "because of Chalmers".
Hold on there.
Mario Chalmers is a mediocre PG in almost every respect, and his only real above average skills are his ability to hit open threes and his ability to play solid defense. He's basically Derek Fisher 2.0, but without the clutch. The only reason he is the starting PG in Miami is because they are about a gazillion dollars over the salary cap (due to said big three) and they cannot afford an upgrade at the point- anybody they could get for the mini-midlevel exception would be more of a sideways step rather than an upgrade. The guy is a chump and would be a backup PG on 70% of teams out there. Miami sucks at only two positions, and PG happens to be one of them...hence he gets to start.
Rajon Rondo on the other hand is arguably the greatest playmaking PG in the entire league for the last 2-3 years running. Aside from Chris Paul and Steven Nash there has not been a single PG in the league with the court vision, IQ and passing skills anywhere near that of Rondo since Jason Kidd and John Stockton were in their primes. No, even in his prime Deron was never on that level.
I think it's pretty difficult to deny the intangible impact that Jason Kidd had on the teams he played on. He was never a great scoring PG, but he could still score 10-14 points per night. His ability to combine that with exceptional defense, the best rebounding from his position, and the best playmaking skills in the league all combined to make him without question the best PG of his era. Not only that, but he is a guarantee for the Hall of Fame and will go down in history as one of the greatest PG's to ever play.
Guys like Richard Jefferson and Kenyon Martin practically owe their careers to Jason Kidd, since he made both of those guys look like they were twice as good offensively as they really were.
Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett all signed with Boston as they had just reached the plateu of their careers, and after 2008 they all started a slow (but sure) decline. Despite this, all three of those guys displayed career high scoring percentages while playing with Rondo:
1) In 2009-2010 Paul Pierce shot 47.2% from the field and 41.4% from three. Both career highs. In 2010-2010 he upped his FG% to 49.7%, which was a new career high.
2) In 2010-2011 Ray Allen shot 49.1% from the field and 44.4% from three. Both career highs. In 2012-2013 he shot 45.3% from three, which was a new career high.
3) Kevin Garnett shot over 52% from the field for four consecutive seasons after coming to Boston - 53.9% in 2007-2008, 53.1% in 2008-2009, 52.1% in 2009-2010 and 52.8% in 2010-2011. Before coming to Boston he only shot over 52% one time (2005-2006) and his next best after that was 50.2% (2002-2003, 2004-2005).
4) Since the big 3 era began Kendrick Perkins never shot below 54% from the field. He shot 61.5% in 2007-2008, 57.7% in 2008-2009, 60.2% in 2009-2010 and 54.2% as a Celtic in 2010-2011. Since being traded to OKC he has never shot above 50% from the field (his best was 49.3% as a member of the Thunder in 2010-2011).
Despite the fact that Pierce, Ray and KG were all starting to decline when they came together in the 2007-2008 season, all three of thse guys (and Perk) all scored with career high efficiency while in Boston, playing alongside Rondo.
Yes, you can argue that in the early years some of those numbers (like KG's career high efficiency in 2007-2008) came before Rondo developed into the elite playmaker he is, and yes you could argue some of that had to do with the fact that three hall of famers (who were previously the best player on their team) had now combined and hence had two other hall of famers to distract defenders. That doesn't explain how Perkin's shooting numbers dropped as soon as he moved to OKC, playing alongside guys like Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka and Harden.
I've no doubts you can tweak those stas to tell you a different story if you want to, but I assure you those career high shooting percentages you saw from KG, Pierce, Ray and Perk while in Boston had a lot to do with Rondo's ability to constantly get them the ball in exactly the right place, at exactly the right time. Pierce probably benefited least from this as he's good at creating his own shot. Ray, Kevin and Kendrick however were all guys who without a doubt scored a LOT of points off Rajon Rondo assists.
I find it very hard to believe that those guys would have put up career high scorign efficiency numbers at that age if they had today's Mario Chalmers as their PG. I imagine Pierce would have never shot over 46%, KG would have stayed up around 51% and Ray would have been down around 45%-45% at best.
Now, if somebody asks you whether Jason Kidd made his teammates better - would you say yes? How about Steve Nash? How about Chris Paul and John Stockton? I think most people would agree that every one of those guys made everybody around them better. Yes Paul, Nash and Stockton were also great shooters. Kidd was not. Point Guards with elite playmaking ability are incredibly valuable in this league, and also incredibly rare. Hell even all-star calibre big men are more common in the NBA then PG's with the playmaking ability of a Chris Paul or Rajon Rondo.
If Rondo was a complete non-factor offensively (i.e. his offensive impact was on par with Gerald Wallace in his current state) then I would say yes, that offsets the valueof his passing skills. That's not the case though, and Rondo has still been a double figure scorer every season since his sophomore year, and in that time has only ever once shot below 47.5% from the field. If you can score at least 10 PPG and do so while shooting at least 47% from the field, as a pass-first PG, then you are not an offensive liability.
Wow, what a post. You put it way better than I would've ever been able to. Thanks.
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Nice post.
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Kidd improved as a shooter, I don't see that happening with Rondo. At least Kidd could shoot 35% at 3 throughout his career, while Rondo has no real 3 range to speak of. And Kidd wasn't a huge FT liability, shooting a respectable .785 for his career. Rondo still plays like he's afraid to get fouled.
Rondo's positives are legitimate, but his unique negatives make him a difficult player to build around. There's no urgency to trade him now as he's taking his time coming back and still has a year remaining on his deal, but I wouldn't make him untouchable.
The main point is, the future star of this team is not on the roster yet. For all his brilliance, teams with Kidd as the best player never seriously contended for a title (see also Nash, Steve) and he was the best PG of his generation.
If/when the Celtics are able to acquire the next franchise cornerstone then the question is does Rondo fit in with that player skillwise and agewise, not the other way around.
First of all Rondo had zero jumpshot when he first came in the league. Last year he (from memory) ranked top 10 in the league in FG% on midrange shots. I think that classifies as improving as a shooter.
Rondo also improved a little last year as a three point shooter. The eye test told me that he seemed to be taking more threes than ever, and he also seemed to be making them more often. Not enough to make him dangerous from three, but enough that he could actually punish teams for playing off him.
The statistics back up that theory. His 1.3 3PA per game was the highest number of his career and yet his 3PT% of 24% was the second highest of his career.
The only season in which he shot a higher percentage was 2008-2009, in which he shot 31% on threes...but took less than half the number of attempts.
The only season in which he averaged close to as many threes was 2009-2010, in which he averaged 1.0 3PA per game but shot only 21%.
For Rondo to push his 3PA up to 1.3 per game and still shoot around 24% was definately an improvement over previous years.
To put this in to perspective Dwyane Wade attempted 1.0 3PA per game last season, and he shot only 26%. That's 30% less attempts than Rondo, and yet only 2% more accurate.
Did his free throw shooting improve? Not dramatically, but a little. He shot 64.5% from the FT line, which was the best result since his rookie season (64.7%).
Now when you combine Rondo's much improved midrange shot (which was actually very good) with his much improved three point shot (which people now had to consider defending) with his career best FT percentage...I think it's safe to say that he did improve as a shooter.
Did these changes make him an elite scorer? Of course not. But as above Dwyane Wade's three point shooting was not that far above Rondo's last year. His FT% was also only 72% - only 7 percentage points better than Rondo. Yes 7% is a significant difference, and yes he takes a LOT more attempts than Rondo. Still, you are talking about a guy who has been one of the leagues elite scorers for the past 10 years despite having no three point ahot and rarely being more than 'decent' from the line. Rondo will never, ever be a scorer on a level anywhere near that of Wade, but the difference is that Wade's primary selling point is his scoring ability. Rondo's scoring ability is the least of his skills.
I do understand where you are coming from, but do I believe Rondo can he get by as an elite pass-first PG while shooting 50% from midrange, 24% from three and 65% fom the foul line? Yes, absolutely.
Last season Rondo played in 38 games. He scored 30+ points once, 20+ points 5 times, 15+ points 10 times. He did this as a fourth scoring option (behind Pierce, KG, Green) with pass-first intentions.
The guys is not an offensive liability. He's actually a very good shooter from midrange and an exceptionally good finisher around the basket(his shooting percentage at the rim is actually better than Derek Rose). He is a below average shooter from three and from the foul line, but he can still score from both places on occasion.
People make it out like Rondo is a horrendous offensive player - he is not. I have no trouble beleiving that he could average around 16+ PPG if called upon to handle a larger scoring load, in the past he's just never had to. If he were on the roster this season, I would hazard a guess that he (not Green) would probably be the Celtics leading scorer right now.
Kidd was never the leading scorer on the playoff teams he was a part of, but he still the best player on a Nets team that made it to the NBA Finals...so he was the best player on a championship contender despite not being a top scorer.
In fact I like this quote from Wikipedia:
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"The 2001-02 season saw Kidd lead the Nets to a surprising 52-30 finish, and marked one of his best all-around seasons as he finished second to the Spurs' Tim Duncan in MVP voting. Many have argued that Kidd deserved to win the award because of his impact in New Jersey—transforming the Nets from perennial league doormats into championship contenders seemingly in the space of a single training camp. His contribution to the Nets during his first season in New Jersey was huge, and resulted in one of the greatest turnarounds in NBA history."
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I'd like to note that Kidd led New Jersey to the finals before VC came along, and before Richard Jefferson developed into a major talent. The other starters on that team were Todd MacCullock, Kenyon Martin, Keith Van Horn and Kerry Kittles. This was the roster that Jason Kidd (a pass-first PG with limited scoring talent) led to an Eastern Conference title and an NBA Finals appearance.
Don't underestimate the impact a great leader can have on a team. If you think it's just Chris Paul's scoring that turned the Clippers from a joke into a borderline contender think again. It's his abliity as a leader and his ability to orchestrate an offense that led to that transformation.
:)
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Haven't forgotten how good he was.
Here's what's more important than how good he was, though --
How good will Rondo be after his knee injury?
How good will Rondo be two, three, four, or five years from now?
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Haven't forgotten how good he was.
Here's what's more important than how good he was, though --
How good will Rondo be after his knee injury?
How good will Rondo be two, three, four, or five years from now?
We will have the answer to the first question by the end of this season.
The answer to the second question will likely depend largely on the answer to the first question.
5 years from now Rondo will be 32 years old.
When Steve Nash was 32 he averaged 18.6 PPG, 11.6 APG, 3.5 RPG.
When Jason Kidd was 32 he averaged 13.3 PPG, 8.4 APG, 7.3 RPG, 1.9 SPG.
When John Stockton was 32 he averaged 14.7 PPG, 12.3 APG, 3.1 RPG, 2.4 SPG.
When Andre Miller was 32 he averaged 16.2 PPG, 6.5 APG, 4.5 RPG, 1.3 SPg.
When Isiah Thomas was 32 he averaged 14.8 PPG, 6.9 APG, 2.7 RPG, 1.2 SPG
When Magic Johnson returned to the NBA at age 36 he averaged 14.6 PPG, 6.9 APG, 5.7 RPG, 0.8 SPG.
Highly skilled playmakers with high BBIQ tend to age well in this league, and 32 years of age really is not that old. Even if we did pick up an great draft pick after this season who turned out being a future superstar...by the time he is approaching his peak around 5 years time, chances are Rondo will still be a pretty good starting PG in this league.
Don't get me wrong I'm not a Rondo bandwagon fan or anything - last year before he got injured I was one of the first people in the "trade Rondo" team because I'm well aware of his flaws. That however was just because I was looking at things from an emotional perspective, and reacting to the fact that the team was underperforming...and Rondo (as the best player on the team) was always going to be the one to take the blame for that.
Looking at it now though I can see how rare a talent Rondo is. I can see so many times when we play how much better things would be if he were out there - all those times I see Crawford throwing up horrible shorts, or Bradley throwing that bad pass, or Bass fumbling another entry pass that was a bit off target. The most elite players in the league - guys like Lebron and Kobe - praise Rondo as much as anybody in the league. You need to be a special player to get praise from guys like that. He's a special player, make no mistake about it. If you build around him then yes, you do need an elite scoer next to him...just as you do with Dwight. But Rondo is the best there is at what he does, and he's an elite PG.
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Kidd improved as a shooter, I don't see that happening with Rondo. At least Kidd could shoot 35% at 3 throughout his career, while Rondo has no real 3 range to speak of. And Kidd wasn't a huge FT liability, shooting a respectable .785 for his career. Rondo still plays like he's afraid to get fouled.
Rondo's positives are legitimate, but his unique negatives make him a difficult player to build around. There's no urgency to trade him now as he's taking his time coming back and still has a year remaining on his deal, but I wouldn't make him untouchable.
The main point is, the future star of this team is not on the roster yet. For all his brilliance, teams with Kidd as the best player never seriously contended for a title (see also Nash, Steve) and he was the best PG of his generation.
If/when the Celtics are able to acquire the next franchise cornerstone then the question is does Rondo fit in with that player skillwise and agewise, not the other way around.
First of all Rondo had zero jumpshot when he first came in the league. Last year he (from memory) ranked top 10 in the league in FG% on midrange shots. I think that classifies as improving as a shooter.
Rondo also improved a little last year as a three point shooter. The eye test told me that he seemed to be taking more threes than ever, and he also seemed to be making them more often. Not enough to make him dangerous from three, but enough that he could actually punish teams for playing off him.
The statistics back up that theory. His 1.3 3PA per game was the highest number of his career and yet his 3PT% of 24% was the second highest of his career.
The only season in which he shot a higher percentage was 2008-2009, in which he shot 31% on threes...but took less than half the number of attempts.
The only season in which he averaged close to as many threes was 2009-2010, in which he averaged 1.0 3PA per game but shot only 21%.
For Rondo to push his 3PA up to 1.3 per game and still shoot around 24% was definately an improvement over previous years.
To put this in to perspective Dwyane Wade attempted 1.0 3PA per game last season, and he shot only 26%. That's 30% less attempts than Rondo, and yet only 2% more accurate.
Did his free throw shooting improve? Not dramatically, but a little. He shot 64.5% from the FT line, which was the best result since his rookie season (64.7%).
Now when you combine Rondo's much improved midrange shot (which was actually very good) with his much improved three point shot (which people now had to consider defending) with his career best FT percentage...I think it's safe to say that he did improve as a shooter.
I guess this depends on your definition of "improvement." In most shooting statistics Rondo has not improved a significant amount.
He did have more 3 attempts, but he's never attempted enough 3s for his %s to have much meaning.
For example, he only made 12 of 50 3s last year. If he had missed just 1 of those 12 and finished at 11/50, the % drops to 22%! Then all of a sudden his 3pt. % would be close to his career lows (20.7, 21.3, 23.3).
Needless to say, even at a career high of 0.3 attempts/game Rondo simply isn't a 3 point shooter and when he does take one the opposing defense considers that a "win."
Oh, and why would you compare him to Dwyane Wade? Nobody considers Wade to be a good 3 pt. shooter.
His FT% did improve the last 3 years, but only because it took a drop since his rookie and third seasons:
64.7, 61.1, 64.2, 62.1, 56.8, 59.7, 64.5
So actually his FT% hasn't really improved at all. Also, his attempts last season (2.4) were the same as his rookie year, and on the low end considering he's been able to reach 3.4-3.5 FTA three times in his career (09, 10, 12).
I will grant you that his midrange % improved markedly last season with 48% on 1.7/3.6 shooting from 16-23 feet. Here are his M/A/% by year:
0.3/1.1/27%
1.2/2.7/43%
0.8/1.9/40%
0.7/2.3/33%
1.3/3.3/41%
1.1/2.9/39%
1.7/3.6/48%
I guess time will tell if those 38 games he played last season were an anomaly or a trend as far as midrange shooting goes. On 3s and FTs he's still basically the same guy except he slightly upped his 3pt attempts.
I do think he will see a lot less wide open jumpers now that the team around him is less talented. Teams used to goad Rondo into taking shots because they knew they couldn't beat the Celtics if Rondo got his teammates going. They were willing to sacrifice Rondo hitting a few jumpers because the alternative was much more damaging.
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Kidd improved as a shooter, I don't see that happening with Rondo. At least Kidd could shoot 35% at 3 throughout his career, while Rondo has no real 3 range to speak of. And Kidd wasn't a huge FT liability, shooting a respectable .785 for his career. Rondo still plays like he's afraid to get fouled.
Rondo's positives are legitimate, but his unique negatives make him a difficult player to build around. There's no urgency to trade him now as he's taking his time coming back and still has a year remaining on his deal, but I wouldn't make him untouchable.
The main point is, the future star of this team is not on the roster yet. For all his brilliance, teams with Kidd as the best player never seriously contended for a title (see also Nash, Steve) and he was the best PG of his generation.
If/when the Celtics are able to acquire the next franchise cornerstone then the question is does Rondo fit in with that player skillwise and agewise, not the other way around.
First of all Rondo had zero jumpshot when he first came in the league. Last year he (from memory) ranked top 10 in the league in FG% on midrange shots. I think that classifies as improving as a shooter.
Rondo also improved a little last year as a three point shooter. The eye test told me that he seemed to be taking more threes than ever, and he also seemed to be making them more often. Not enough to make him dangerous from three, but enough that he could actually punish teams for playing off him.
The statistics back up that theory. His 1.3 3PA per game was the highest number of his career and yet his 3PT% of 24% was the second highest of his career.
The only season in which he shot a higher percentage was 2008-2009, in which he shot 31% on threes...but took less than half the number of attempts.
The only season in which he averaged close to as many threes was 2009-2010, in which he averaged 1.0 3PA per game but shot only 21%.
For Rondo to push his 3PA up to 1.3 per game and still shoot around 24% was definately an improvement over previous years.
To put this in to perspective Dwyane Wade attempted 1.0 3PA per game last season, and he shot only 26%. That's 30% less attempts than Rondo, and yet only 2% more accurate.
Did his free throw shooting improve? Not dramatically, but a little. He shot 64.5% from the FT line, which was the best result since his rookie season (64.7%).
Now when you combine Rondo's much improved midrange shot (which was actually very good) with his much improved three point shot (which people now had to consider defending) with his career best FT percentage...I think it's safe to say that he did improve as a shooter.
I guess this depends on your definition of "improvement." In most shooting statistics Rondo has not improved a significant amount.
He did have more 3 attempts, but he's never attempted enough 3s for his %s to have much meaning.
For example, he only made 12 of 50 3s last year. If he had missed just 1 of those 12 and finished at 11/50, the % drops to 22%! Then all of a sudden his 3pt. % would be close to his career lows (20.7, 21.3, 23.3).
Needless to say, even at a career high of 0.3 attempts/game Rondo simply isn't a 3 point shooter and when he does take one the opposing defense considers that a "win."
Oh, and why would you compare him to Dwyane Wade? Nobody considers Wade to be a good 3 pt. shooter.
His FT% did improve the last 3 years, but only because it took a drop since his rookie and third seasons:
64.7, 61.1, 64.2, 62.1, 56.8, 59.7, 64.5
So actually his FT% hasn't really improved at all. Also, his attempts last season (2.4) were the same as his rookie year, and on the low end considering he's been able to reach 3.4-3.5 FTA three times in his career (09, 10, 12).
I will grant you that his midrange % improved markedly last season with 48% on 1.7/3.6 shooting from 16-23 feet. Here are his M/A/% by year:
0.3/1.1/27%
1.2/2.7/43%
0.8/1.9/40%
0.7/2.3/33%
1.3/3.3/41%
1.1/2.9/39%
1.7/3.6/48%
I guess time will tell if those 38 games he played last season were an anomaly or a trend as far as midrange shooting goes. On 3s and FTs he's still basically the same guy except he slightly upped his 3pt attempts.
I do think he will see a lot less wide open jumpers now that the team around him is less talented. Teams used to goad Rondo into taking shots because they knew they couldn't beat the Celtics if Rondo got his teammates going. They were willing to sacrifice Rondo hitting a few jumpers because the alternative was much more damaging.
The big difference I saw last year was the nature of threes that he was taking and making.
In the past he would only shoot a three if everybody else was defended, the shot clock was winding down and the defense was giving him about 10 feet of space. Even then when he took the shot it looked forced and uncomfortable - like he was taking it because he had to, not because he wanted to.
Last year I he looked far more confident shooting the three. He seemed to take a lot more of those threes with a defender running at him, or in the flow of the offense. He wasn't hessitating on the shots as he did in the past - he would shoot without reservation, and he made a lot more contested threes than he ever did before.
I don't know if there are any statistics to indicate this, but that's what I noticed from the 'eye test'. There were so many times when he shot a three and I thought "oh no!", and then it just went in. But it didn't look like an accident - the shot looked like it was going to fall the whole way. He never looked like that in the past.
Personally I started noticing a lot of this improvement after his big 40 point explosion against Miami. It's as if that game just gave him a huge confidence boost, because every since then he just looked more comfortable shooting (and making) jumpers.
He seemed to be getting better and better at it as the season went on as well, was just a shame that he went down when he did. I felt like he was on target for a career year.
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i haven't forgotten
rondo makes everyone on the court a better player
like garnett, like bird
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Kidd improved as a shooter, I don't see that happening with Rondo. At least Kidd could shoot 35% at 3 throughout his career, while Rondo has no real 3 range to speak of. And Kidd wasn't a huge FT liability, shooting a respectable .785 for his career. Rondo still plays like he's afraid to get fouled.
Rondo's positives are legitimate, but his unique negatives make him a difficult player to build around. There's no urgency to trade him now as he's taking his time coming back and still has a year remaining on his deal, but I wouldn't make him untouchable.
The main point is, the future star of this team is not on the roster yet. For all his brilliance, teams with Kidd as the best player never seriously contended for a title (see also Nash, Steve) and he was the best PG of his generation.
If/when the Celtics are able to acquire the next franchise cornerstone then the question is does Rondo fit in with that player skillwise and agewise, not the other way around.
You need to consider that Kidd was Rondo's current age (give or take) before he ever won a playoff series. If you compare Kidd up to the age Rondo was last season (http://bkref.com/tiny/pGkYF) you see that statistically they're fairly similar, with Kidd probably having a slight advantage in the regular season and Rondo having a somewhat larger advantage in the playoffs. Also note that, while Kidd was the better ft and 3p shooter he was a less efficient scorer than Rondo, both in the regular season and the playoffs. Also note that he got to the line less often than Rondo, both in the regular season and playoffs.
Also, take a look at Kidd's overall career (http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/kiddja01.html). If you look at his playoff stats, his two (arguably) best statistical years came when he was older than Rondo is and led to trips to the finals. He averaged roughly 20/8/9 with a TS% of about .503 over those two years. In Rondo's last playoffs he averaged 17/7/12 with a TS% of .505.
So if you compare Rondo to Kidd Rondo's at least on par (statistically) to Kidd at the same point in their careers and he's played as well (statistically) as Kidd's best playoff series (which came when he was older than Rondo is).
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Kidd improved as a shooter, I don't see that happening with Rondo. At least Kidd could shoot 35% at 3 throughout his career, while Rondo has no real 3 range to speak of. And Kidd wasn't a huge FT liability, shooting a respectable .785 for his career. Rondo still plays like he's afraid to get fouled.
Rondo's positives are legitimate, but his unique negatives make him a difficult player to build around. There's no urgency to trade him now as he's taking his time coming back and still has a year remaining on his deal, but I wouldn't make him untouchable.
The main point is, the future star of this team is not on the roster yet. For all his brilliance, teams with Kidd as the best player never seriously contended for a title (see also Nash, Steve) and he was the best PG of his generation.
If/when the Celtics are able to acquire the next franchise cornerstone then the question is does Rondo fit in with that player skillwise and agewise, not the other way around.
First of all Rondo had zero jumpshot when he first came in the league. Last year he (from memory) ranked top 10 in the league in FG% on midrange shots. I think that classifies as improving as a shooter.
Rondo also improved a little last year as a three point shooter. The eye test told me that he seemed to be taking more threes than ever, and he also seemed to be making them more often. Not enough to make him dangerous from three, but enough that he could actually punish teams for playing off him.
The statistics back up that theory. His 1.3 3PA per game was the highest number of his career and yet his 3PT% of 24% was the second highest of his career.
The only season in which he shot a higher percentage was 2008-2009, in which he shot 31% on threes...but took less than half the number of attempts.
The only season in which he averaged close to as many threes was 2009-2010, in which he averaged 1.0 3PA per game but shot only 21%.
For Rondo to push his 3PA up to 1.3 per game and still shoot around 24% was definately an improvement over previous years.
To put this in to perspective Dwyane Wade attempted 1.0 3PA per game last season, and he shot only 26%. That's 30% less attempts than Rondo, and yet only 2% more accurate.
Did his free throw shooting improve? Not dramatically, but a little. He shot 64.5% from the FT line, which was the best result since his rookie season (64.7%).
Now when you combine Rondo's much improved midrange shot (which was actually very good) with his much improved three point shot (which people now had to consider defending) with his career best FT percentage...I think it's safe to say that he did improve as a shooter.
I guess this depends on your definition of "improvement." In most shooting statistics Rondo has not improved a significant amount.
He did have more 3 attempts, but he's never attempted enough 3s for his %s to have much meaning.
I think Rondo's a better 3 shooter than his numbers indicate. His averages get trashed because he takes so few of them that last second heaves are a big part of his average. Whether he takes more of them or not remains to be seen.
I do think he will see a lot less wide open jumpers now that the team around him is less talented. Teams used to goad Rondo into taking shots because they knew they couldn't beat the Celtics if Rondo got his teammates going. They were willing to sacrifice Rondo hitting a few jumpers because the alternative was much more damaging.
Teams also goad Rondo into shooting because that's preferable to other things he does, namely drive or pass. I don't think that dynamic will change much, or that he'll be unable to take advantage of the situation if it does.
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Haven't forgotten how good he was.
Here's what's more important than how good he was, though --
How good will Rondo be after his knee injury?
How good will Rondo be two, three, four, or five years from now?
I agree. It's fast closing on a year since RR played in an NBA game. While I don't expect the injury to have many long term effects on his game, which is based on athleticism but not just on it, He's definitely going to come back rusty, and there's a possibility he'll be playing fairly tentatively until March-ish, although it looks like he's doing the Rose thing and waiting until he's 100% comfortable before he comes back to the hardwood.
However good RR was, though, doesn't have much of a place in the real discussion, which will be about how good he will be/is, and we can't talk about that until he's back on the court.
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Haven't forgotten how good he was.
Here's what's more important than how good he was, though --
How good will Rondo be after his knee injury?
How good will Rondo be two, three, four, or five years from now?
I agree. It's fast closing on a year since RR played in an NBA game. While I don't expect the injury to have many long term effects on his game, which is based on athleticism but not just on it, He's definitely going to come back rusty, and there's a possibility he'll be playing fairly tentatively until March-ish, although it looks like he's doing the Rose thing and waiting until he's 100% comfortable before he comes back to the hardwood.
However good RR was, though, doesn't have much of a place in the real discussion, which will be about how good he will be/is, and we can't talk about that until he's back on the court.
If you don't expect his injury to have long term effect on his game then this seems reasonable to discuss.
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That's my guess. Using a quick, dirty, and flawed scale, his injury/surgery/rehab was more severe then Westbrook and less severe than Rose or Kobe. He might come back looking like he's lost half a step initially, but I don't think it's a "never going to be the same" type thing if it really was just a partial tear.
I do think that he'll have a longer rust period than Rose or Westbrook because he's older, but I don't think that he'll be looking like Return-From-Achillies-Kobe.
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Kidd improved as a shooter, I don't see that happening with Rondo. At least Kidd could shoot 35% at 3 throughout his career, while Rondo has no real 3 range to speak of. And Kidd wasn't a huge FT liability, shooting a respectable .785 for his career. Rondo still plays like he's afraid to get fouled.
Rondo's positives are legitimate, but his unique negatives make him a difficult player to build around. There's no urgency to trade him now as he's taking his time coming back and still has a year remaining on his deal, but I wouldn't make him untouchable.
The main point is, the future star of this team is not on the roster yet. For all his brilliance, teams with Kidd as the best player never seriously contended for a title (see also Nash, Steve) and he was the best PG of his generation.
If/when the Celtics are able to acquire the next franchise cornerstone then the question is does Rondo fit in with that player skillwise and agewise, not the other way around.
You need to consider that Kidd was Rondo's current age (give or take) before he ever won a playoff series. If you compare Kidd up to the age Rondo was last season (http://bkref.com/tiny/pGkYF) you see that statistically they're fairly similar, with Kidd probably having a slight advantage in the regular season and Rondo having a somewhat larger advantage in the playoffs. Also note that, while Kidd was the better ft and 3p shooter he was a less efficient scorer than Rondo, both in the regular season and the playoffs. Also note that he got to the line less often than Rondo, both in the regular season and playoffs.
Also, take a look at Kidd's overall career (http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/kiddja01.html). If you look at his playoff stats, his two (arguably) best statistical years came when he was older than Rondo is and led to trips to the finals. He averaged roughly 20/8/9 with a TS% of about .503 over those two years. In Rondo's last playoffs he averaged 17/7/12 with a TS% of .505.
So if you compare Rondo to Kidd Rondo's at least on par (statistically) to Kidd at the same point in their careers and he's played as well (statistically) as Kidd's best playoff series (which came when he was older than Rondo is).
Right but then you start having to compare teams and situations and Kidd will win that argument. A young Kidd never played on a team with talent like Pierce, Garnett, and Allen. It seems logical that his offensive efficiency would improve if he played with such a strong set of veteran teammates.
In Dallas and Phoenix Kidd had to settle for good but not great players like Jimmy Jackson and Mashburn, then Penny and Googs.
Anyway, Kidd could at least hit 70 3s his rookie year while Rondo only has 75 in his ENTIRE CAREER. Kidd's FT stabilized at high 700s/low 800s at age 24. I have to think that those numbers aren't entirely meaningless when attempting to project how much improvement a PG can make in his shot going forward.
Of course I hope Rondo can make his jumper legitimate, but don't you think it's weird that he can't even crack .650 on FT%? Is there another PG who had such a low FT% and also became a good shooter? The only other "star" PG I can think of with such a low FT% is Baron Davis, and Rondo is even lower than he was.
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That's my guess. Using a quick, dirty, and flawed scale, his injury/surgery/rehab was more severe then Westbrook and less severe than Rose or Kobe. He might come back looking like he's lost half a step initially, but I don't think it's a "never going to be the same" type thing if it really was just a partial tear.
I do think that he'll have a longer rust period than Rose or Westbrook because he's older, but I don't think that he'll be looking like Return-From-Achillies-Kobe.
Rondo's game is based more on skill and BBIQ, Rose's and Westbrook's games are based more on athletecism. I wouldn't expect him to look worse in his recovery than them. Also, he's 27, not 34. Any effect of his advanced age on his recovery would be slight.
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Kidd improved as a shooter, I don't see that happening with Rondo. At least Kidd could shoot 35% at 3 throughout his career, while Rondo has no real 3 range to speak of. And Kidd wasn't a huge FT liability, shooting a respectable .785 for his career. Rondo still plays like he's afraid to get fouled.
Rondo's positives are legitimate, but his unique negatives make him a difficult player to build around. There's no urgency to trade him now as he's taking his time coming back and still has a year remaining on his deal, but I wouldn't make him untouchable.
The main point is, the future star of this team is not on the roster yet. For all his brilliance, teams with Kidd as the best player never seriously contended for a title (see also Nash, Steve) and he was the best PG of his generation.
If/when the Celtics are able to acquire the next franchise cornerstone then the question is does Rondo fit in with that player skillwise and agewise, not the other way around.
You need to consider that Kidd was Rondo's current age (give or take) before he ever won a playoff series. If you compare Kidd up to the age Rondo was last season (http://bkref.com/tiny/pGkYF) you see that statistically they're fairly similar, with Kidd probably having a slight advantage in the regular season and Rondo having a somewhat larger advantage in the playoffs. Also note that, while Kidd was the better ft and 3p shooter he was a less efficient scorer than Rondo, both in the regular season and the playoffs. Also note that he got to the line less often than Rondo, both in the regular season and playoffs.
Also, take a look at Kidd's overall career (http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/kiddja01.html). If you look at his playoff stats, his two (arguably) best statistical years came when he was older than Rondo is and led to trips to the finals. He averaged roughly 20/8/9 with a TS% of about .503 over those two years. In Rondo's last playoffs he averaged 17/7/12 with a TS% of .505.
So if you compare Rondo to Kidd Rondo's at least on par (statistically) to Kidd at the same point in their careers and he's played as well (statistically) as Kidd's best playoff series (which came when he was older than Rondo is).
Right but then you start having to compare teams and situations and Kidd will win that argument. A young Kidd never played on a team with talent like Pierce, Garnett, and Allen. It seems logical that his offensive efficiency would improve if he played with such a strong set of veteran teammates.
In Dallas and Phoenix Kidd had to settle for good but not great players like Jimmy Jackson and Mashburn, then Penny and Googs.
You'd also have to consider that Kidd was the focal point of his teams and they were built around his strengths. Rondo's basically been a proverbial ferrari hitched to a large trailer. Also, Rondo had very talented teammates when he was younger, not so much in recent years. Look at PP/KG/RA now, they didn't fall off of cliffs, they got worse over time. If they were still on the Celts right now, though, there would be plenty of posts discounting what he does because he's playing with great offensive talents or (better still) HOFers.
In the 2008 finals Rondo sprained his ankle and was ineffective in the three games in LA, the Big three were able to go toe to toe offensively against a very strong Lakers team. In 2013 Rondo was out for the playoffs and his teammates were literally setting records for offensive ineptitude against a weak Knicks team. The strength of his teammates varied (decreased) over that time span, but you're kidding yourself if you don't think that some of Kidd's offensive teammates would rival what Rondo's had the last few years.
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I don't know that Rondo's overrated or underrated on here... I think that between all of our various opinions we know exactly how he stacks up.
celtics nation is a lot bigger than just this site.
^^ but not by much :)
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Kidd improved as a shooter, I don't see that happening with Rondo. At least Kidd could shoot 35% at 3 throughout his career, while Rondo has no real 3 range to speak of. And Kidd wasn't a huge FT liability, shooting a respectable .785 for his career. Rondo still plays like he's afraid to get fouled.
Rondo's positives are legitimate, but his unique negatives make him a difficult player to build around. There's no urgency to trade him now as he's taking his time coming back and still has a year remaining on his deal, but I wouldn't make him untouchable.
The main point is, the future star of this team is not on the roster yet. For all his brilliance, teams with Kidd as the best player never seriously contended for a title (see also Nash, Steve) and he was the best PG of his generation.
If/when the Celtics are able to acquire the next franchise cornerstone then the question is does Rondo fit in with that player skillwise and agewise, not the other way around.
You need to consider that Kidd was Rondo's current age (give or take) before he ever won a playoff series. If you compare Kidd up to the age Rondo was last season (http://bkref.com/tiny/pGkYF) you see that statistically they're fairly similar, with Kidd probably having a slight advantage in the regular season and Rondo having a somewhat larger advantage in the playoffs. Also note that, while Kidd was the better ft and 3p shooter he was a less efficient scorer than Rondo, both in the regular season and the playoffs. Also note that he got to the line less often than Rondo, both in the regular season and playoffs.
Also, take a look at Kidd's overall career (http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/kiddja01.html). If you look at his playoff stats, his two (arguably) best statistical years came when he was older than Rondo is and led to trips to the finals. He averaged roughly 20/8/9 with a TS% of about .503 over those two years. In Rondo's last playoffs he averaged 17/7/12 with a TS% of .505.
So if you compare Rondo to Kidd Rondo's at least on par (statistically) to Kidd at the same point in their careers and he's played as well (statistically) as Kidd's best playoff series (which came when he was older than Rondo is).
Right but then you start having to compare teams and situations and Kidd will win that argument. A young Kidd never played on a team with talent like Pierce, Garnett, and Allen. It seems logical that his offensive efficiency would improve if he played with such a strong set of veteran teammates.
A couple of other things worth mentioning. Kidd was never really an efficient scorer until near the end of his career when his scoring was mainly comprised of spot-up threes. It's true that his efficiency would have likely gone up playing with 08-10 (or so) big three, but his production would have dropped. He wouldn't be handling the ball as much with players like PP and KG on the team and his best shooting is still not on the level of the big three so the team wouldn't want him scoring a lot. If Kidd had the ball he'd face the same issues Rondo did but to a greater level because he's a poorer scorer outside of those spot-up threes than Rondo is.
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Also, earlier you mentioned how KG, Paul and ray were more efficient "because of Rondo". That's like arguing that LeBron, Wade and Bosh are more efficient on Miami, "because of Chalmers".
Hold on there.
Mario Chalmers is a mediocre PG in almost every respect, and his only real above average skills are his ability to hit open threes and his ability to play solid defense. He's basically Derek Fisher 2.0, but without the clutch. The only reason he is the starting PG in Miami is because they are about a gazillion dollars over the salary cap (due to said big three) and they cannot afford an upgrade at the point- anybody they could get for the mini-midlevel exception would be more of a sideways step rather than an upgrade. The guy is a chump and would be a backup PG on 70% of teams out there. Miami sucks at only two positions, and PG happens to be one of them...hence he gets to start.
Rajon Rondo on the other hand is arguably the greatest playmaking PG in the entire league for the last 2-3 years running. Aside from Chris Paul and Steven Nash there has not been a single PG in the league with the court vision, IQ and passing skills anywhere near that of Rondo since Jason Kidd and John Stockton were in their primes. No, even in his prime Deron was never on that level.
I think it's pretty difficult to deny the intangible impact that Jason Kidd had on the teams he played on. He was never a great scoring PG, but he could still score 10-14 points per night. His ability to combine that with exceptional defense, the best rebounding from his position, and the best playmaking skills in the league all combined to make him without question the best PG of his era. Not only that, but he is a guarantee for the Hall of Fame and will go down in history as one of the greatest PG's to ever play.
Guys like Richard Jefferson and Kenyon Martin practically owe their careers to Jason Kidd, since he made both of those guys look like they were twice as good offensively as they really were.
Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett all signed with Boston as they had just reached the plateu of their careers, and after 2008 they all started a slow (but sure) decline. Despite this, all three of those guys displayed career high scoring percentages while playing with Rondo:
1) In 2009-2010 Paul Pierce shot 47.2% from the field and 41.4% from three. Both career highs. In 2010-2010 he upped his FG% to 49.7%, which was a new career high.
2) In 2010-2011 Ray Allen shot 49.1% from the field and 44.4% from three. Both career highs. In 2012-2013 he shot 45.3% from three, which was a new career high.
3) Kevin Garnett shot over 52% from the field for four consecutive seasons after coming to Boston - 53.9% in 2007-2008, 53.1% in 2008-2009, 52.1% in 2009-2010 and 52.8% in 2010-2011. Before coming to Boston he only shot over 52% one time (2005-2006) and his next best after that was 50.2% (2002-2003, 2004-2005).
4) Since the big 3 era began Kendrick Perkins never shot below 54% from the field. He shot 61.5% in 2007-2008, 57.7% in 2008-2009, 60.2% in 2009-2010 and 54.2% as a Celtic in 2010-2011. Since being traded to OKC he has never shot above 50% from the field (his best was 49.3% as a member of the Thunder in 2010-2011).
Despite the fact that Pierce, Ray and KG were all starting to decline when they came together in the 2007-2008 season, all three of thse guys (and Perk) all scored with career high efficiency while in Boston, playing alongside Rondo.
Yes, you can argue that in the early years some of those numbers (like KG's career high efficiency in 2007-2008) came before Rondo developed into the elite playmaker he is, and yes you could argue some of that had to do with the fact that three hall of famers (who were previously the best player on their team) had now combined and hence had two other hall of famers to distract defenders. That doesn't explain how Perkin's shooting numbers dropped as soon as he moved to OKC, playing alongside guys like Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka and Harden.
I've no doubts you can tweak those stas to tell you a different story if you want to, but I assure you those career high shooting percentages you saw from KG, Pierce, Ray and Perk while in Boston had a lot to do with Rondo's ability to constantly get them the ball in exactly the right place, at exactly the right time. Pierce probably benefited least from this as he's good at creating his own shot. Ray, Kevin and Kendrick however were all guys who without a doubt scored a LOT of points off Rajon Rondo assists.
I find it very hard to believe that those guys would have put up career high scorign efficiency numbers at that age if they had today's Mario Chalmers as their PG. I imagine Pierce would have never shot over 46%, KG would have stayed up around 51% and Ray would have been down around 45%-45% at best.
Now, if somebody asks you whether Jason Kidd made his teammates better - would you say yes? How about Steve Nash? How about Chris Paul and John Stockton? I think most people would agree that every one of those guys made everybody around them better. Yes Paul, Nash and Stockton were also great shooters. Kidd was not. Point Guards with elite playmaking ability are incredibly valuable in this league, and also incredibly rare. Hell even all-star calibre big men are more common in the NBA then PG's with the playmaking ability of a Chris Paul or Rajon Rondo.
If Rondo was a complete non-factor offensively (i.e. his offensive impact was on par with Gerald Wallace in his current state) then I would say yes, that offsets the valueof his passing skills. That's not the case though, and Rondo has still been a double figure scorer every season since his sophomore year, and in that time has only ever once shot below 47.5% from the field. If you can score at least 10 PPG and do so while shooting at least 47% from the field, as a pass-first PG, then you are not an offensive liability.
Yes... a couple years of Pierce/KG/Ray playing together along with Rondo's development from "role player" to "all-star" improved everyone's efficiency. But suggesting that Pierce/KG/Ray only had improved efficiency due to Rondo is ridiculous. LeBron's efficiency has improved every year he's been in Miami despite the fact that Wade and Bosh have regressed. Is that due to Chalmers?... or just the fact that players perform better after years of discovering each other's tendencies? Rondo helped with the efficiency in 2010... but my point is there were quiet a few players you could have swapped Rondo with during that era and seen little change. For instance, I think Steph Curry even at that stage of his career would have improved the efficiency of KG/Pierce/Ray more than Rondo could... simply because he would spread the floor and add another supreme shooting threat. The team would have played differently, but not necessarily worse.
Also, I'm sick of talking about J-Kidd as some barometer for Rondo's future success. J-Kidd made the finals in an era where the "Leastern Conference" was almost as bad as this one... except there was no teams like Miami or Indiana at the top of the conference. They made the finals by default with 49-52 wins. Iversons made the finals during that joke era. Even a mediocre Pierce/Walker team nearly made the finals during that joke era. They were all fodder for the loaded West.
The length of your post rivaled anything I'd write, though... so TP.
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Also, earlier you mentioned how KG, Paul and ray were more efficient "because of Rondo". That's like arguing that LeBron, Wade and Bosh are more efficient on Miami, "because of Chalmers".
Hold on there.
Mario Chalmers is a mediocre PG in almost every respect, and his only real above average skills are his ability to hit open threes and his ability to play solid defense. He's basically Derek Fisher 2.0, but without the clutch. The only reason he is the starting PG in Miami is because they are about a gazillion dollars over the salary cap (due to said big three) and they cannot afford an upgrade at the point- anybody they could get for the mini-midlevel exception would be more of a sideways step rather than an upgrade. The guy is a chump and would be a backup PG on 70% of teams out there. Miami sucks at only two positions, and PG happens to be one of them...hence he gets to start.
Rajon Rondo on the other hand is arguably the greatest playmaking PG in the entire league for the last 2-3 years running. Aside from Chris Paul and Steven Nash there has not been a single PG in the league with the court vision, IQ and passing skills anywhere near that of Rondo since Jason Kidd and John Stockton were in their primes. No, even in his prime Deron was never on that level.
I think it's pretty difficult to deny the intangible impact that Jason Kidd had on the teams he played on. He was never a great scoring PG, but he could still score 10-14 points per night. His ability to combine that with exceptional defense, the best rebounding from his position, and the best playmaking skills in the league all combined to make him without question the best PG of his era. Not only that, but he is a guarantee for the Hall of Fame and will go down in history as one of the greatest PG's to ever play.
Guys like Richard Jefferson and Kenyon Martin practically owe their careers to Jason Kidd, since he made both of those guys look like they were twice as good offensively as they really were.
Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett all signed with Boston as they had just reached the plateu of their careers, and after 2008 they all started a slow (but sure) decline. Despite this, all three of those guys displayed career high scoring percentages while playing with Rondo:
1) In 2009-2010 Paul Pierce shot 47.2% from the field and 41.4% from three. Both career highs. In 2010-2010 he upped his FG% to 49.7%, which was a new career high.
2) In 2010-2011 Ray Allen shot 49.1% from the field and 44.4% from three. Both career highs. In 2012-2013 he shot 45.3% from three, which was a new career high.
3) Kevin Garnett shot over 52% from the field for four consecutive seasons after coming to Boston - 53.9% in 2007-2008, 53.1% in 2008-2009, 52.1% in 2009-2010 and 52.8% in 2010-2011. Before coming to Boston he only shot over 52% one time (2005-2006) and his next best after that was 50.2% (2002-2003, 2004-2005).
4) Since the big 3 era began Kendrick Perkins never shot below 54% from the field. He shot 61.5% in 2007-2008, 57.7% in 2008-2009, 60.2% in 2009-2010 and 54.2% as a Celtic in 2010-2011. Since being traded to OKC he has never shot above 50% from the field (his best was 49.3% as a member of the Thunder in 2010-2011).
Despite the fact that Pierce, Ray and KG were all starting to decline when they came together in the 2007-2008 season, all three of thse guys (and Perk) all scored with career high efficiency while in Boston, playing alongside Rondo.
Yes, you can argue that in the early years some of those numbers (like KG's career high efficiency in 2007-2008) came before Rondo developed into the elite playmaker he is, and yes you could argue some of that had to do with the fact that three hall of famers (who were previously the best player on their team) had now combined and hence had two other hall of famers to distract defenders. That doesn't explain how Perkin's shooting numbers dropped as soon as he moved to OKC, playing alongside guys like Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka and Harden.
I've no doubts you can tweak those stas to tell you a different story if you want to, but I assure you those career high shooting percentages you saw from KG, Pierce, Ray and Perk while in Boston had a lot to do with Rondo's ability to constantly get them the ball in exactly the right place, at exactly the right time. Pierce probably benefited least from this as he's good at creating his own shot. Ray, Kevin and Kendrick however were all guys who without a doubt scored a LOT of points off Rajon Rondo assists.
I find it very hard to believe that those guys would have put up career high scorign efficiency numbers at that age if they had today's Mario Chalmers as their PG. I imagine Pierce would have never shot over 46%, KG would have stayed up around 51% and Ray would have been down around 45%-45% at best.
Now, if somebody asks you whether Jason Kidd made his teammates better - would you say yes? How about Steve Nash? How about Chris Paul and John Stockton? I think most people would agree that every one of those guys made everybody around them better. Yes Paul, Nash and Stockton were also great shooters. Kidd was not. Point Guards with elite playmaking ability are incredibly valuable in this league, and also incredibly rare. Hell even all-star calibre big men are more common in the NBA then PG's with the playmaking ability of a Chris Paul or Rajon Rondo.
If Rondo was a complete non-factor offensively (i.e. his offensive impact was on par with Gerald Wallace in his current state) then I would say yes, that offsets the valueof his passing skills. That's not the case though, and Rondo has still been a double figure scorer every season since his sophomore year, and in that time has only ever once shot below 47.5% from the field. If you can score at least 10 PPG and do so while shooting at least 47% from the field, as a pass-first PG, then you are not an offensive liability.
Yes... a couple years of Pierce/KG/Ray playing together along with Rondo's development from "role player" to "all-star" improved everyone's efficiency. But suggesting that Pierce/KG/Ray only had improved efficiency due to Rondo is ridiculous. LeBron's efficiency has improved every year he's been in Miami despite the fact that Wade and Bosh have regressed. Is that due to Chalmers?... or just the fact that players perform better after years of discovering each other's tendencies? Rondo helped with the efficiency in 2010..
It's not the same thing at all. Rondo's role in the Celts offense changed dramatically, Chalmers' role didn't. In LeBron's first year Chalmers had an AST% of 17 or so, this year it's 25. LeBron's has been higher all along, and has only dropped by a few percent. Wade's AST% (also as high or higher than Mario's) didn't drop at all. Rondo's AST% went from 28% in 2008 to 52.5% in 2012, KG and PP's dropped by 1/3 or so during that time. What changes (if any) to Mario's role would you attribute LeBron's play on? If none, why would you think that those two examples are remotely similar?
Also, if you look into the subject, I'll wager players are more likely to improve their scoring efficiencies in their mid-late 20s than they are in their mid 30s regardless of their teammates.
but my point is there were quiet a few players you could have swapped Rondo with during that era and seen little change. For instance, I think Steph Curry even at that stage of his career would have improved the efficiency of KG/Pierce/Ray more than Rondo could... simply because he would spread the floor and add another supreme shooting threat. The team would have played differently, but not necessarily worse.
You could claim that, but it's all conjecture. Is having somewhat better floor spacing more advantageous than getting easy shots off of Rondo's passes? Doubtful. If your theory was true at all it would have to have been early in the big three era, at least when Ray and KG could create their own shots easier. Also, you'd have to consider that replacing Rondo with a better shooter to space the floor (Eddie House, for instance) hurt the offense and our fg% as well.
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Rondo isn't better than Curry. Just not true. He's a fine PG... statistically Rondo in his prime could be a Top 5 PG this year. But there are a couple guys who outclass him right now. 17 other guys who are basically interchangeable with him.
I think this is really the crux of the discussion. Does the fact that there are (apparently) 17 other PGs with "similar" efficiency ratings mean that there are 17 players that are basically interchangeable with him? Are there skills that point guards rely on that aren't measured by that stat? Can those skills vary greatly from pg to pg and can they have much of an impact on the game?
From your list, 17 players are probably within 5 on efficiency rating from Rondo's from last year. If that's "interchangeable", does that apply to other positions too? Does that mean players like Dirk, Pau, Amare and Webber are interchangeable with Duncan because their career efficiencies are close to his? I'd guess that Popovich would take issue with that.
Also, just out of curiosity, why, in your scenario, would a player with an efficiency rating about 4 points higher than Rondo's outclass him, yet players with ratings 5 points lower than him be basically interchangeable with him?
Tiers.
I think Rondo is great. I love the guy. But I don't think he'd impact the game on the level of Stephen Curry right now. That guy is an effective defender and completely carries his offense. You could build a contender around Curry's efficient offense. Dude is like Ray in his prime mixed with upper-level playmaking skills (nearly averaging 10 assists). Rondo does a lot of things really well, but I don't think he could be the best player on a champion.
I'll keep an eye out for a few more GS games in case last night's game was somehow an aberration, but Curry's got the same playmaking skills I remember, not really top level. He's an elite level scorer, and his defense isn't really anything to write home about, but the difference in playmaking ability between the best in the game (Rondo/CP/Nash, even Deron) and Curry? Tiers. As in more than one. Clearly that wasn't his best shooting night, and I'd expect matchups dictated Iggy controlling the ball more than Curry down the stretch, but he didn't really have the look of an upper-level playmaker.