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Other Discussions => Games / Gambling / Fantasy Sports => Off Topic => CelticsStrong Draft => Topic started by: nickagneta on September 08, 2013, 04:17:47 PM

Title: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: nickagneta on September 08, 2013, 04:17:47 PM
Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs

Oklahoma City
Guards:  Derrick Rose, Iman Shumpert, Bem McLemore, Marco Belinelli, Eric Maynor, Dennis Schoeder, Ben Gordon
Forwards: Patrick Patterson, Taj Gibson, Udonis Haslem, Chase Budinger, Landry Fields
Centers: Dwight Howard, Iam Mahinmi
Coach: Mike Brown

Presser: http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=67440.msg1546569#msg1546569

San Antonio
Guards: Andre Iguodala, Kemba Walker, Marcus Thornton, Luke Ridnour, Toney Douglas
Forwards: Kevin Love, Danny Granger, Thaddeus Young, Luigi Datome, Donatas Motiejunas, DeMarre Carroll
Centers:JaVale McGee, Cody Zeller
Coach: Rick Carlisle

Presser: http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=67442.msg1547000#msg1547000


Polls open at 12 noon EST Sept. 9th. Close 11:59:59PM  Sept. 9th. Here are the voting guidelines for this round:

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=67476.msg1547496#msg1547496
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: dark_lord on September 08, 2013, 06:31:03 PM
if rose is rose and dh12 is dh12, then they are serious title contenders.  however, rose is concerning with the injury and long layoff.  dh12 has under achieved for 2 yrs, been injured, been a cancer for two separate organizations, and couldn't get along with another superstar (kobe).  why would this be different?

i favor OKC in this series, but i dont think OKC is a 2nd seed.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: Lucky17 on September 08, 2013, 07:07:48 PM
if rose is rose and dh12 is dh12, then they are serious title contenders.  however, rose is concerning with the injury and long layoff.  dh12 has under achieved for 2 yrs, been injured, been a cancer for two separate organizations, and couldn't get along with another superstar (kobe).  why would this be different?

Well, I feel as though I've addressed this already both publicly (in the press conference thread), and privately (in a direct PM to you).

But, I'll say once more: the dynamic between Rose and Howard should be infinitely more cooperative and positive than the one we saw last season in Los Angeles. Why? Several reasons:

1. Kobe has always been the kind of person who points the finger at others when his team has fallen short. [Just google "kobe blames teammates" for some choice cuts.] Rose shoulders the blame and looks for ways to improve.

http://espn.go.com/chicago/nba/story/_/id/7517359/derrick-rose-blames-chicago-bulls-loss-miami-heat

Quote
"It was definitely tough," Rose said. "All I can say is I guess God [does] everything for a reason. I've been in those situations before, knocked them down, but to miss both [free throws] -- I let my team down. The only thing I can do is learn from it."

...

"Derrick's always been someone who's his [own] biggest critic," Bulls center Joakim Noah said. "He takes losses very hard. And he wouldn't be the competitor that he is if he wasn't like that. He knows that we have his back. We love him. And we know we wouldn't be in the position that we're in today if it wasn't for a guy like that. And he knows that. At the end of the day, we have each other's back. But we all feel down right now, it's not just him. Everybody could have done better."

In short, Howard's going to respect Rose a lot more than he did Kobe.

2. The success of OKC will derive in no small way from the combination of Rose and Dwight in the pick and roll, a cooperative endeavor that will see both mutually benefit. Instead of trying to find a way to get touches in Mike D'Antoni's "iso Kobe" offense, Dwight's going to get plenty of easy looks thanks to a teammate who actually likes to share the ball.

3. Kobe is a world-class tool. Everyone knows this, including another elite big man who was driven out of LA years ago.

I've got no qualms whatsoever about how Dwight Howard and Derrick Rose will get along.


i favor OKC in this series, but i dont think OKC is a 2nd seed.

Don't worry about seeds at this point. It's the playoffs. The only things that matter are how the teams match up, and maybe, who has home court advantage.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: Yoki_IsTheName on September 08, 2013, 07:17:59 PM
I lean towards OKC, but this is a 7 game series to me.

Rose is another one of those guys who gets possessed in the Playoffs. And with Dwight on board defending, they'll be too tough regardless of what Kevin Love does.

Danny Granger on the other may give some lift for SA.

My concern with OKC too is Mike Brown, and he might wear out Rose with his Iso ball technique.

But in the end, it cam to one name, JaVale McGee. Sorry but if he's matching up against Dwight, you're asking for trouble.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: nickagneta on September 08, 2013, 07:22:36 PM
I am assuming based on the placement of the teams in the regular season that Rose and Howard came back strong and had big years and that possibly Love did but Granger didn't. Based on that, it might be the Thunder in 5 or 6 but a healthy Love could cause major problems for the Thunder with Iggy doing his thing.

Gotta think on this match up more and see what the GMs have to say. I also like Carlisle to out coach Brown at least once and win a close contest.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: Lucky17 on September 08, 2013, 07:32:58 PM
I wonder if SA will simply punt on trying to match up against Howard: go small, spread the floor as much as possible, and live and die by the three. I'll be curious to hear from Dubs.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: Lucky17 on September 08, 2013, 07:38:08 PM
The matchups in the backcourt will be key, I think.

Can Rose-Shumpert contain Kemba-Iggy? I think the OKC defense could prove disruptive to the Spurs offense.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: The Walker Wiggle on September 08, 2013, 07:50:47 PM
I am assuming based on the placement of the teams in the regular season that Rose and Howard came back strong and had big years and that possibly Love did but Granger didn't.

In that case, even THE Walker Wiggle will concede. With Love and Granger both in traction. An emotionally exhausted Spurs lose in 5.

This was a difficult day for the organization, discovering just hours after making the playoffs that two of our All-Stars had been badly injured while rehearsing what would've been an all time great Game 1 half time show. We assure our fans the Coyote has been fired, and we thank you all for your support in these trying times.

(http://old.wallcoo.net/sport/NBA_San_Antonio_Spurs/images/wp0708_coyotebike.jpg)

(http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2490/3775867614_2d13abe462_o.jpg)
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: Lucky17 on September 08, 2013, 07:58:23 PM
If only the NBA had drug testing for mascots too. This whole tragedy could have been avoided.

I mean, come on: look at those eyes. It's obvious he's high on tumbleweeds right now.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: nickagneta on September 08, 2013, 07:58:46 PM
I am assuming based on the placement of the teams in the regular season that Rose and Howard came back strong and had big years and that possibly Love did but Granger didn't.

In that case, even THE Walker Wiggle will concede. With Love and Granger both in traction. An emotionally exhausted Spurs lose in 5.

This was a difficult day for the organization, discovering just hours after making the playoffs that two of our All-Stars had been badly injured while rehearsing what would've been an all time great Game 1 half time show. We assure our fans the Coyote has been fired, and we thank you all for your support in these trying times.

(http://old.wallcoo.net/sport/NBA_San_Antonio_Spurs/images/wp0708_coyotebike.jpg)

(http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2490/3775867614_2d13abe462_o.jpg)
I thought I said Love possibly had a big year and would also give the Thunder major problems. I also believe I said I thought your coach would win a game.

Did I mention both your stars in traction? I apologize but I don't think I did.

I do agree though, that Coyote has to go. He's dangerous!!!
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: McHales Pits on September 08, 2013, 08:32:47 PM
OKC takes this one ... Concerned about Rose and Howard's health, but expecting them to be ready for opening night. Minimal SA interior defense will be exposed from Rose's slashing and Howard's dominance
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: The Walker Wiggle on September 08, 2013, 08:48:13 PM
I wonder if SA will simply punt on trying to match up against Howard: go small, spread the floor as much as possible, and live and die by the three. I'll be curious to hear from Dubs.

At this point in his career Howard is scoring 17 points a game, we'll likely concede that. The Thunder aren't changing their line-up to deal with Danny Granger.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: Roy H. on September 09, 2013, 07:51:51 AM
I'm not concerned about injuries for San Antonio.  I *am* concerned about Javale's ability to cover Howard.  I'm interested in hearing Wiggle's thoughts on it.

This matchup is all about strength vs. weakness.  Lucky's strength at the 1 and 5 versus Wiggle's relative weakness there, and the flip side advantage at the 2 - 4 for the Spurs.

My early thoughts are that Kevin Love is going to have to score 25 to 30 per night for this to be competitive, but again, I'd like to hear Wiggle's strategy.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: fitzhickey on September 09, 2013, 07:59:48 AM
What if SA went Iggy at the 1 and Thornton at the 2. Kemba as the spark off the bench
Iggy would be the best option for stopping rose IMO
Dwight poses a threat though
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: Fafnir on September 09, 2013, 08:49:20 AM
I'm not concerned about injuries for San Antonio.  I *am* concerned about Javale's ability to cover Howard.  I'm interested in hearing Wiggle's thoughts on it.
Spurs.
Other than McGee who the heck is going to cover Howard anyways. I don't see that going well for Zeller, just not ready to match Howard's physical presence.

I fear Love (or worse one of the other weaker Fs) is going to end up on him a lot due to foul trouble by McGee/Zeller.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: Fafnir on September 09, 2013, 08:51:26 AM
I wonder if SA will simply punt on trying to match up against Howard: go small, spread the floor as much as possible, and live and die by the three. I'll be curious to hear from Dubs.

At this point in his career Howard is scoring 17 points a game, we'll likely concede that. The Thunder aren't changing their line-up to deal with Danny Granger.
He'll score much much much more when a player not named McGee has to cover him. And I don't think McGee will be particularly effective, he's just better than the alternatives.

Against Howard McGee has had some serious foul issues, which is a disaster for SA. And I must say I don't think McGee is a smart enough player to adjust and play differently to stay on the court where his team needs him.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: Who on September 09, 2013, 11:31:10 AM
Is Iman Shumpert and Andre Iguodala a neutral matchup at SG?

Edit: Playmaking I suppose. That is what separates the two. As a two guard, matched up head to head, they both seem quite similar as jump-shooters + shot creators + scorers. They are both top notch defensive players (one-on-one and help defense sequences). Both seem to create possessions at a very healthy clip for a SG. Shumpert gives secondary ball-handling. But not the passing / playmaking of Iguodala. The difference. Surprisingly close matchup.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: dark_lord on September 09, 2013, 03:55:07 PM
my vote is in....OKC
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: Who on September 09, 2013, 04:51:32 PM
Keep forgetting Kevin Love is on this team. 26ppg two years and 13-15rpg for three straight years. You would think he wouldn't be hard to remember.

Most overlooked star in the CB Draft?
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: Who on September 09, 2013, 04:54:21 PM
I think JaVale McGee would need to give San Antonio 30+mpg against Dwight Howard to give San Antonio a chance in this series. McGee came close to that against A.Bynum two years ago. Maybe it is possible. Then again, D.Howard owned him when ORL-WAS were playing against each other in the East.

I think Kevin Love will be the one who has to defend Dwight Howard when McGee goes to the bench (likely in foul trouble). I think SAS should go small with Thad Young. Force Dwight to stay on K-Love out on the perimeter. Taj Gibson can check T.Young at PF. That way both team's interior / team defenses are seriously comprised (rather than only SAS' defense).
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: Who on September 09, 2013, 04:59:01 PM
What if SA went Iggy at the 1 and Thornton at the 2. Kemba as the spark off the bench
Iggy would be the best option for stopping rose IMO
Dwight poses a threat though

I think SAS should definitely put Iggy on Rose. Iggy is their best bet at containing him.

I think SAS can hide Kemba on Shumpert. No need to bench him. Shumpert hasn't proven he has the shot-creation skills or post game to punish the little guy.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: KGs Knee on September 09, 2013, 05:22:07 PM
This might actually be the most lopsided series of them all, IMHO.  I just can't see how SAS is going to be able to generate nearly enough offense.  I'd give them maybe one home game...OKC in 5.

I guess I'll be in THE Walker Wiggle's book now  :-\
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: The Walker Wiggle on September 09, 2013, 06:05:30 PM
I think JaVale McGee would need to give San Antonio 30+mpg against Dwight Howard to give San Antonio a chance in this series. McGee came close to that against A.Bynum two years ago. Maybe it is possible. Then again, D.Howard owned him when ORL-WAS were playing against each other in the East.

I think Kevin Love will be the one who has to defend Dwight Howard when McGee goes to the bench (likely in foul trouble). I think SAS should go small with Thad Young. Force Dwight to stay on K-Love out on the perimeter. Taj Gibson can check T.Young at PF. That way both team's interior / team defenses are seriously comprised (rather than only SAS' defense).

That's how I envision it is as well. McGee has a size and quickness advantage. At this point in their careers he's capable of bothering Howard defensively, and beating him to the other rim offensively, for three and half quarters before fouling out. When he's on the bench, Love, in a small lineup with Young, is capable of both holding Howard off the glass, and pulling him out of comfort zone defensively. He is going to struggle getting his shot off inside when matched up with Dwight, but San Antonio can partly offset that disadvantage by staying big at the 2 and 3 with Iguodala and Granger. Spurs will also throw Motiejunas out there in short stints as another three point threat.

Someone convince me Howard can even swing a playoff series anymore? Swept in the second round after putting up 17, 10 and 2, 4 TOs per, and the lowest +/- of his career.

Quote from: Simmons
Remember when Mike Tyson came out of prison and wasn't the same boxer anymore, even though he looked like the same guy? That's Dwight Howard since 2011's NBA lockout. He's not a force of nature anymore. The Eye Test backs it up, and so do the results: Howard dragged a 219-102 record from four half-decent Magic teams from 2008 to 2011, then went just 75-55 in these past two seasons once his body started breaking down. There's been a not-so-subtle dip in his offensive numbers …

2011: 22.9 PPG, 14.1 RPG, 59% FG, 60% FT, 227 dunks, 26.0 PER (second in NBA)
2013: 17.1 PPG, 12.4 RPG, 58% FG, 49% FT, 187 dunks, 19.4 PER (38th)

… and defensively, Dwight isn't the NBA's most impactful player anymore. You would rather have Marc Gasol or Joakim Noah, both of whom are just better at anchoring a defense. Throw in the undeniable injury risks, the maturity issues, and the words "not even a hint of any leadership whatsoever."

Love is going to dominate his match-up against Patrick Patterson by a wider margin, and lead either front court in both scoring and rebounding. Pat is the most overmatched player in this series not JaVale. He's got a nice midrange game, but not a lot more.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: The Walker Wiggle on September 09, 2013, 06:11:19 PM
This might actually be the most lopsided series of them all, IMHO.  I just can't see how SAS is going to be able to generate nearly enough offense.  I'd give them maybe one home game...OKC in 5.

I guess I'll be in THE Walker Wiggle's book now  :-\

Because we know Mike Brown with his iso heavy offense is the coach to get the most out of Howard?

Kevin Love is going to lead both team's in scoring vs. OKC's grab bag of journeyman 4s. Danny Granger still has it over on Chase Budinger, who's also coming off a lost season, and who's checking Marcus Thornton off OKC's bench?

At least give me something I can work with.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: Lucky17 on September 09, 2013, 06:14:05 PM
I doubt Patterson sees much court time. We're going to go with Taj and Haslem at PF.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: Who on September 09, 2013, 06:24:30 PM
I would be comfortable with Taj Gibson on Thad Young but not with Udonis Haslem or Patrick Patterson. I think Landry Fields would be the best option at PF in that matchup if Taj Gibson is resting.

I like Haslem over Patterson as relief for T.Gibson on K-Love. Physical toughness.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: Lucky17 on September 09, 2013, 06:26:07 PM
I think Kevin Love will be the one who has to defend Dwight Howard when McGee goes to the bench (likely in foul trouble). I think SAS should go small with Thad Young. Force Dwight to stay on K-Love out on the perimeter. Taj Gibson can check T.Young at PF. That way both team's interior / team defenses are seriously comprised (rather than only SAS' defense).

Couldn't I have Taj pursue Love out on the perimeter, and let Dwight cheat off of the lesser threat in Thad Young? I'll certainly concede face up jumpers from Young (shooting 35% or less outside of 10 feet) if it takes shots away from Love.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: Who on September 09, 2013, 06:27:46 PM
I think OKC has two major matchup advantages with D-Rose and D-Howard over Kemba and JaVale.

From there, I think SAS has the advantage 2-4 in the starting lineup (Iggy, Granger, K-Love) + two bench advantages (Ridnour + Thad Young vs Mahinmi at center for OKC) + a head coaching advantage.

I really like the pluses SAS has in this series but I am finding it hard to look past two superstars in such an advantageous situation. I am going to bet on the superstars in a long hard hard fought series. 
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: Who on September 09, 2013, 06:39:53 PM
I think Kevin Love will be the one who has to defend Dwight Howard when McGee goes to the bench (likely in foul trouble). I think SAS should go small with Thad Young. Force Dwight to stay on K-Love out on the perimeter. Taj Gibson can check T.Young at PF. That way both team's interior / team defenses are seriously comprised (rather than only SAS' defense).

Couldn't I have Taj pursue Love out on the perimeter, and let Dwight cheat off of the lesser threat in Thad Young? I'll certainly concede face up jumpers from Young (shooting 35% or less outside of 10 feet) if it takes shots away from Love.

I don't think so.

I believe Thad Young is too quick for Dwight Howard. He can beat Dwight off the dribble in dribble drives, in transition and on cuts in the halfcourt whenever Dwight looks to help out (which he will). Between the three, Thad Young will create numerous high percentage scoring opportunities for himself in addition to a few (wide open) forced jumpers.

Thad Young is an undersized quick four. His whole game is built around utilizing his quickness advantage offensively and defensively against bigger players. This fits his style of play perfectly. Too quick and too talented. Combined with Dwight's lack of experience in guarding such players and I think that would create more problems than it solves.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: The Walker Wiggle on September 09, 2013, 07:00:35 PM
I would be comfortable with Taj Gibson on Thad Young but not with Udonis Haslem or Patrick Patterson. I think Landry Fields would be the best option at PF in that matchup if Taj Gibson is resting.

I like Haslem over Patterson as relief for T.Gibson on K-Love. Physical toughness.

In the playoffs last season:

Taj Gibson 6.5 points and 3.0 rebounds
Udonis Haslem 5.0 points and 3.6 rebounds

Pick your poison, Lucky and then drink to avoid having to watch Love follow up his 38 and 24 game with a 36, 21 and 6 three pointer Game 2.

Keep forgetting Kevin Love is on this team. 26ppg two years and 13-15rpg for three straight years. You would think he wouldn't be hard to remember.

Most overlooked star in the CB Draft?

Clearly true. Given that I've field multiple questions about JaVale McGee, but the general consensus is that a back up PF off any team in the league can keep Love in check.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: The Walker Wiggle on September 09, 2013, 07:03:00 PM
I wonder if SA will simply punt on trying to match up against Howard: go small, spread the floor as much as possible, and live and die by the three. I'll be curious to hear from Dubs.

At this point in his career Howard is scoring 17 points a game, we'll likely concede that. The Thunder aren't changing their line-up to deal with Danny Granger.
He'll score much much much more when a player not named McGee has to cover him. And I don't think McGee will be particularly effective, he's just better than the alternatives.

Like Howard's 7 point game elimination game against Aron Baynes bad? Or worse than that?
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: Lucky17 on September 09, 2013, 07:07:49 PM
Pick your poison, Lucky and then drink to avoid having to watch Love follow up his 38 and 24 game with a 36, 21 and 6 three pointer Game 2.

Are we using a randomizer for those numbers? Why not just say that Love will average eleventy points and forty-five rebounds in his first ever playoff series?
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: Lucky17 on September 09, 2013, 07:11:25 PM
I wonder if SA will simply punt on trying to match up against Howard: go small, spread the floor as much as possible, and live and die by the three. I'll be curious to hear from Dubs.

At this point in his career Howard is scoring 17 points a game, we'll likely concede that. The Thunder aren't changing their line-up to deal with Danny Granger.
He'll score much much much more when a player not named McGee has to cover him. And I don't think McGee will be particularly effective, he's just better than the alternatives.

Like Howard's 7 point game elimination game against Aron Baynes bad? Or worse than that?

That one certainly did skew his playoff averages last season. In Games One, Two, and Three, Dwight led the Lakers in scoring every game.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: The Walker Wiggle on September 09, 2013, 07:15:52 PM
So how does Chase Budinger keep Granger in check? His defense has been weak enough to keep him from becoming a full-time NBA starter, and he rates poorly both in isolation and against spot ups, which is exactly how Granger is going to work him.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: The Walker Wiggle on September 09, 2013, 07:17:41 PM
I wonder if SA will simply punt on trying to match up against Howard: go small, spread the floor as much as possible, and live and die by the three. I'll be curious to hear from Dubs.

At this point in his career Howard is scoring 17 points a game, we'll likely concede that. The Thunder aren't changing their line-up to deal with Danny Granger.
He'll score much much much more when a player not named McGee has to cover him. And I don't think McGee will be particularly effective, he's just better than the alternatives.

Like Howard's 7 point game elimination game against Aron Baynes bad? Or worse than that?

That one certainly did skew his playoff averages last season. In Games One, Two, and Three, Dwight led the Lakers in scoring every game.

In three games the Lakers lost by a combined 54 points. I'll let Dwight get his 16-25 if that's the end result.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: The Walker Wiggle on September 09, 2013, 07:18:49 PM
In the playoffs last season:

Taj Gibson 6.5 points and 3.0 rebounds
Udonis Haslem 5.0 points and 3.6 rebounds

Pick your poison, Lucky and then drink to avoid having to watch Love follow up his 38 and 24 game with a 36, 21 and 6 three pointer Game 2.

Are we using a randomizer for those numbers? Why not just say that Love will average eleventy points and forty-five rebounds in his first ever playoff series?

http://www.roll-dice-online.com (http://www.roll-dice-online.com)
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: ronaldo943 on September 09, 2013, 07:20:56 PM
Pick your poison, Lucky and then drink to avoid having to watch Love follow up his 38 and 24 game with a 36, 21 and 6 three pointer Game 2.

Are we using a randomizer for those numbers? Why not just say that Love will average eleventy points and forty-five rebounds in his first ever playoff series?

http://www.roll-dice-online.com (http://www.roll-dice-online.com)

The dice never lies. I'm going Spurs on this one.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: Lucky17 on September 09, 2013, 07:22:11 PM
So how does Chase Budinger keep Granger in check? His defense has been weak enough to keep him from becoming a full-time NBA starter, and he rates poorly both in isolation and against spot ups, which is exactly how Granger is going to work him.

I don't believe you're going to make Kevin Love give the ball up so Danny Granger can hoist jumpers. Granger hasn't hit from 40% on two-point FGs from any spot on the floor outside of the key since 2009.

http://www.hoopdata.com/player.aspx?name=Danny%20Granger
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: The Walker Wiggle on September 09, 2013, 07:24:24 PM
So how does Chase Budinger keep Granger in check? His defense has been weak enough to keep him from becoming a full-time NBA starter, and he rates poorly both in isolation and against spot ups, which is exactly how Granger is going to work him.

I don't believe you're going to make Kevin Love give the ball up so Danny Granger can hoist jumpers. Granger hasn't hit from 40% on two-point FGs from any spot on the floor outside of the key since 2009.

http://www.hoopdata.com/player.aspx?name=Danny%20Granger

Funny 2009 is also when Dwight Howard peaked.

2013: 17.1 PPG, 12.4 RPG, 58% FG, 49% FT, 187 dunks, 19.4 PER (36th)

Swept in the first round of the playoffs.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: The Walker Wiggle on September 09, 2013, 07:27:20 PM
Pick your poison, Lucky and then drink to avoid having to watch Love follow up his 38 and 24 game with a 36, 21 and 6 three pointer Game 2.

Are we using a randomizer for those numbers? Why not just say that Love will average eleventy points and forty-five rebounds in his first ever playoff series?

http://www.roll-dice-online.com (http://www.roll-dice-online.com)

The dice never lies. I'm going Spurs on this one.

CB Spurs shout out DKC Spurs.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: Lucky17 on September 09, 2013, 07:40:36 PM
So how does Chase Budinger keep Granger in check? His defense has been weak enough to keep him from becoming a full-time NBA starter, and he rates poorly both in isolation and against spot ups, which is exactly how Granger is going to work him.

I don't believe you're going to make Kevin Love give the ball up so Danny Granger can hoist jumpers. Granger hasn't hit from 40% on two-point FGs from any spot on the floor outside of the key since 2009.

http://www.hoopdata.com/player.aspx?name=Danny%20Granger

Funny 2009 is also when Dwight Howard peaked.

2013: 17.1 PPG, 12.4 RPG, 58% FG, 49% FT, 187 dunks, 19.4 PER (36th)

Swept in the first round of the playoffs.

Howard's still won two rebounding titles since 2009. What's Granger done?

More importantly, what are the Spurs going to do about Derrick Rose, whose career playoff averages are 25 points, 7.3 assists, and nearly 5 boards a game?
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: The Walker Wiggle on September 09, 2013, 07:40:47 PM
Is Iman Shumpert and Andre Iguodala a neutral matchup at SG?

Edit: Playmaking I suppose. That is what separates the two. As a two guard, matched up head to head, they both seem quite similar as jump-shooters + shot creators + scorers. They are both top notch defensive players (one-on-one and help defense sequences). Both seem to create possessions at a very healthy clip for a SG. Shumpert gives secondary ball-handling. But not the passing / playmaking of Iguodala. The difference. Surprisingly close matchup.

I'm a big Shump fan, but you have to forecast two leaps forward for Iman before the battle at the 2 can be considered a close match up.

While, Shumpert played a great series against Boston, it's still not clear he can consistently get his offense. 39.6 FG% on the year, 41.0 FG% in the playoffs. And there's a big difference between playing elite defense over the course of 12 playoffs games vs. the 82 game grind. Shump has already missed more games in his two year career than Iguodala has in nine.

per36:

13.4 PTS 45.1 FG% 31.7 3PT% 3.5 FTA 5.5 REB 1.8 STL 1.6 PF 13.4 PTS Iguodala
11.0 PTS 39.6 FG% 40.2 3PT% 1.7 FTA 3.8 REB 1.6 STL 3.6 PF 11.0 PTS Shumpert
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: The Walker Wiggle on September 09, 2013, 07:42:33 PM
So how does Chase Budinger keep Granger in check? His defense has been weak enough to keep him from becoming a full-time NBA starter, and he rates poorly both in isolation and against spot ups, which is exactly how Granger is going to work him.

I don't believe you're going to make Kevin Love give the ball up so Danny Granger can hoist jumpers. Granger hasn't hit from 40% on two-point FGs from any spot on the floor outside of the key since 2009.

http://www.hoopdata.com/player.aspx?name=Danny%20Granger

Funny 2009 is also when Dwight Howard peaked.

2013: 17.1 PPG, 12.4 RPG, 58% FG, 49% FT, 187 dunks, 19.4 PER (36th)

Swept in the first round of the playoffs.

Howard's still won two rebounding titles since 2009. What's Granger done?

More importantly, what are the Spurs going to do about Derrick Rose, whose career playoff averages are 25 points, 7.3 assists, and nearly 5 boards a game?

Rose was the player I was most worried about. But the Spurs are taking a page from the Thunder's playbook (See: Defense of Kevin Love*) and are checking him with Luke Ridnour and Toney Douglas. I'm as surprised as you are.

*Kevin Love has a rebounding title too.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: Lucky17 on September 09, 2013, 07:48:49 PM
I'd laugh off the Ridnour gameplan, but I think he might actually have the second most career playoff appearances on the Spurs. Experience matters.

Edit: Granger has 22 to Rid's 18.

Edit 2: Wow, Thad Young has 30 appearances? Who knew? Your guys aren't all as green as Love is when it comes to the postseason, I guess.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: The Walker Wiggle on September 09, 2013, 07:53:02 PM
So how does Chase Budinger keep Granger in check? His defense has been weak enough to keep him from becoming a full-time NBA starter, and he rates poorly both in isolation and against spot ups, which is exactly how Granger is going to work him.

I don't believe you're going to make Kevin Love give the ball up so Danny Granger can hoist jumpers. Granger hasn't hit from 40% on two-point FGs from any spot on the floor outside of the key since 2009.

http://www.hoopdata.com/player.aspx?name=Danny%20Granger

So given Granger's mediocre shooting #s and Budinger's defense, in 23 games last season he ranked 387th against spot ups, 234th in isolation. Any chance OKC just plays man down on the defensive end to see if Granger can beat himself?

How optimistic are you about Landry Fields? 4.7 points, 45.7 FG%, 4.1 rebounds, vs Thaddeus Young? 14.8 points, 53.1 FG%, 7.5 rebounds.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: The Walker Wiggle on September 09, 2013, 07:57:54 PM
I'd laugh off the Ridnour gameplan, but I think he might actually have the second most career playoff appearances on the Spurs. Experience matters.

Edit: Granger has 22 to Rid's 18.

Edit 2: Wow, Thad Young has 30 appearances? Who knew? Your guys aren't all as green as Love is when it comes to the postseason, I guess.

Quick tell me your favorite 2013 Udonis Haslem playoff moment?
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: The Walker Wiggle on September 09, 2013, 08:02:12 PM
I'd laugh off the Ridnour gameplan, but I think he might actually have the second most career playoff appearances on the Spurs. Experience matters.

Edit: Granger has 22 to Rid's 18.

Edit 2: Wow, Thad Young has 30 appearances? Who knew? Your guys aren't all as green as Love is when it comes to the postseason, I guess.

Quick tell me your favorite 2013 Udonis Haslem playoff moment?

A less glib response to your criticism of Kevin Love's lack of post season experience - Was KG a different player in 2006-07 with the 32-50 Timberwolves than he was in 2007-08? I think no.

And while I am open to criticizing players who consistently underwhelm in the playoffs, Antawn Jamison, Ryan Anderson, Nic Batum, Al Harrington come to mind. I'm not going to knock a guy for never having been, when he's also never played with another All-Star.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: Lucky17 on September 09, 2013, 08:02:48 PM
I'll just make this blanket statement about our defensive gameplan: we're going to rely on Rose and Shumpert to disrupt guard play, and rely upon our team defense to make rotations/adjustments and choke off ball penetration.

In a word, we're going to make the Spurs beat us with their shooting. The only guy in the Spurs' top six who can do it consistently well is Love. I think every shot hoisted by Granger, Thad Young, or Kemba Walker is a small victory for OKC.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: The Walker Wiggle on September 09, 2013, 08:15:08 PM
I'll just make this blanket statement about our defensive gameplan: we're going to rely on Rose and Shumpert to disrupt guard play, and rely upon our team defense to make rotations/adjustments and choke off ball penetration.

In a word, we're going to make the Spurs beat us with their shooting. The only guy in the Spurs' top six who can do it consistently well is Love. I think every shot hoisted by Granger, Thad Young, or Kemba Walker is a small victory for OKC.

I feel the same way about Dwight Howard's trips to the line.

(http://www.red94.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Dwight-Free-Throws.png)

Also, we have plenty of plus three point shooters - Love, Thornton, Ridnour, Datome, Granger shoots a respectable 38% from behind the arc.

And Young doesn't shoot 53% through luck. He's not going to be bonking long twos. Spurs are getting good looks at the rim in transition. Haslem can't keep pace with Thad. Howard does not want to chase McGee rim to rim, etc.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: indeedproceed on September 09, 2013, 08:26:55 PM
Is there some stat that measures transition defense that can be compared to transition offense? Like is there some stat that shows Dwight doesn't run the floor as well or often as McGee? Honest question.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: Lucky17 on September 09, 2013, 10:28:43 PM
I'd like to think that the OKC guards will apply the same relentless pressure to the Spurs that my opposing GM has applied to me in this thread.

I still think that Rose and Howard will consistently bring more to this series than Love, Iggy, and Thad Young will bring.

If Love is indeed going to move to C in a smallball lineup, he's going to expend a lot of energy on defense trying to deal with Howard.

Likewise, the Spurs are going to have to come up with some kind of strategy to defend Rose, who elevates his game to another level in the playoffs. If it's some platoon committee of Kemba/Ridnour/Douglas, I think that's going to go well for the Thunder. Iguodala? I can bring in a secondary guard like Maynor, Gordon, or Belinelli--all of whom are capable ball handlers--to help run the offense if needed. And once Iguodala needs rest or runs into foul trouble, we're back to a mismatch for Rose.

Taj and Haslem aren't going to hit double figure scoring very often in this series, but that's not what they're out there for. Rebounding, physical play, and tough defense on the Spurs bigs is what those two will bring.

I can see the Spurs shooting their way to a couple wins in this series, but I don't think they can consistently shoot well enough to win four games.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: StartOrien on September 09, 2013, 10:59:35 PM
Can't see San Antonio scoring anywhere near enough points to stay competitive in this series.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: indeedproceed on September 09, 2013, 11:00:34 PM
I just went back and re-read all the comments in this thread. Best basketball analysis by GMs so far.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: The Walker Wiggle on September 10, 2013, 12:08:59 AM
Is there some stat that measures transition defense that can be compared to transition offense? Like is there some stat that shows Dwight doesn't run the floor as well or often as McGee? Honest question.

Hm, dunno. I was just throwing out what I thought was commonly understood. The Lakers were second worst in the league in transition defense, after Sacramento. (They were also 26th in points allowed in the paint). If Howard is a game changing defender and about to stifle the Spurs league-best fast break, he should catch some of that flack. No? I can tell you that Howard finished 82nd in PPP in transition, while McGee was 32nd.

This is also a fun read.

A thorough examination of Dwight Howard's defense against the Heat. (http://hoopchalk.com/2013/01/18/a-thorough-examination-of-dwight-howards-defense-against-the-heat/)

Here's the Cliff Notes version:

Quote
After a turnover, simply turns and watches a Heat fast break without even pretending to attempt to get back on defense. He wouldn’t have had a chance at disrupting the break anyway as it was a LeBron-Wade-Chalmers 3-on-1, but he made no effort whatsoever.

Quote
Literally the exact same thing happens except it’s a Wade-Chalmers 2-on-1. (-1)

Quote
The Heat get a steal immediately after Play #40. It’s a full 5 seconds after the steal before Howard appears in the picture. Wade gets a backdoor dunk off a ridiculous pass from LeBron. (-2)

Quote
Jogs back in transition defense. Again about 5 seconds pass on the shot clock before Howard gets below the 3-point line, but Wade misses a floater. (-1)

Meanwhile a Denver Nuggets team featuring Iguodala and McGee was #1 in the league in fast break scoring and points in the paint.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: The Walker Wiggle on September 10, 2013, 12:28:34 AM
Can't see San Antonio scoring anywhere near enough points to stay competitive in this series.

SO, you're now the second person to suggest this, would you elaborate? Because I can't see it.

SPURS
Kemba Walker 17.7 PTS
Andre Iguodala 13.0 PTS
Danny Granger 18.7 PTS in 11-12
Kevin Love 19.2 PTS
JaVale McGee 9.1 PTS

BENCH
Thaddeus Young 14.8 PTS
Marcus Thornton 12.7 PTS
Luke Ridnour 11.5 PTS

THUNDER
Derrick Rose 21.8 PTS in 11-12
Iman Shumpert 11.0 PTS/36
Chase Budinger 9.4 PTS
Taj Gibson 12.8 PTS/36
Dwight Howard 17.1 PTS

BENCH
Ben Gordon 11.2 PTS
Marco Belinelli 9.6 PTS
Udonis Haslem 3.9 PTS

Even if you don't believe that Love can recapture his 24 points per game average of a year ago, why can't the Spurs still get more than enough offense to keep pace with a Oklahoma City team with trio of limited scorers alongside Rose and Howard? Particularly given that THE Kemba Walker whatever his limitations has shown he can get into the guts of a defense and score, even if it's at a league average rate on a lot of tough shots - floaters, and mid-range jumpers.

The Spurs also have a trio of fairly dangerous bench scorers in Thornton, Young and Ridnour. The Thunder have fewer options.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: The Walker Wiggle on September 10, 2013, 12:56:12 AM
Uh, sorry gents, ignore the above - unless your SO, and then come here and account for yourself - had my dates wrong.

I just went back and re-read all the comments in this thread. Best basketball analysis by GMs so far.

Lucky deserves the lion's share of the credit. Me, well, tell me what it means that I consistently draw compliments on my analysis but ultimately everybody agrees that I was wrong about everything?

Anyway, I'm adding a few things to my list.

Russell Westbrook, Anthony Randolph, Kevin Garnett at center, Ricky Rubio, Kevin Love's comeback, Danny Granger's comeback.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: Who on September 10, 2013, 07:26:42 AM
I just went back and re-read all the comments in this thread. Best basketball analysis by GMs so far.
Yes, this was my favourite GM debate too. Picked up late but lots of quality back and forth on the team's relative strengths and weaknesses.
Title: Re: 2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Oklahoma City(2) vs San Antonio(7)
Post by: TracyAnderson on July 15, 2014, 01:50:49 AM
Pick your poison, Lucky and then drink to avoid having to watch Love follow up his 38 and 24 game with a 36, 21 and 6 three pointer Game 2.

Are we using a randomizer for those numbers? Why not just say that Love will average eleventy points and forty-five rebounds in his first ever playoff series?

http://www.roll-dice-online.com (http://www.roll-dice-online.com)

Dice is always nice. I will definitely try it out. Thanks for sharing this awesome app.