CelticsStrong
Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: masteremile123 on March 06, 2013, 05:40:04 PM
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So I was having a discussion with my friend about how great Kg is and he asked me this question and I had no answer. Who would you guys take ?
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Tim Duncan
Dwight Howard
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Tim Duncan
Nikola Vucevic
The rest I can think of are all undersized or really PFs.
I might take Roy Hibbert or Meyers Leonard (don't really like the latter)
Nikola Pekovic maybe
LARRY SANDERS!
JJ Hickson
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Joakim Noah.
Man anchors CHI's defense, and has for years, now.
Man is a leader, rebounds well, and plays defense at an elite level.
He's vocal, a great passer and a great teammate, from what I've observed and read.
IMO, he's about the closest I've seen to KG in recent years.
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Tim Duncan
Joakhim Noah
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Tim Duncan
Nikola Vucevic
The rest I can think of are all undersized.
Nikola Vucevic is a nice choice but strange as he isnt a great defender but i guess for the future maybe
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Howard
Jefferson
Mccge
Varejao
BOozer
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Howard
Jefferson
Mccge
Varejao
BOozer
Boozer = old, expensive, poor on defense
McGee = overpaid, low basketball IQ, little offense
Varejao = perpetually injured
Jefferson = overpaid, no defense
I'm surprised you'd prefer those guys over KG.
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Noah, Duncan, Howard, Chandler, and maybe Cousins.
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If I'm rebuilding, I might want McGee but tbh this thread...
Is nearly useless seeing as there's barely anyone better than KG at C or anywhere!
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The correct answer is, no one.
Com'on man!
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Marc Gasol, Joakim Noah, Kenneth Faried,
Tyson Chandler, Aldridge
But KG is #1. If kg was not here , any of these guys will do
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Joakim Noah.
Man anchors CHI's defense, and has for years, now.
Man is a leader, rebounds well, and plays defense at an elite level.
He's vocal, a great passer and a great teammate, from what I've observed and read.
IMO, he's about the closest I've seen to KG in recent years.
+1
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Noah, Duncan, Howard, Chandler, and maybe Cousins.
TP for solid selections. I don't know that I would give up KG for anybody but Howard, but these are really the only 5 names, plus Marc Gasol, that anybody should be bringing up. If you choose anybody else [Meyers Leonard, Vucevic, Boozer, etc? Really?], you really don't appreciate what KG brings to the table.
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Noah, Duncan, Howard, Chandler, and maybe Cousins.
TP for solid selections. I don't know that I would give up KG for anybody but Howard, but these are really the only 5 names, plus Marc Gasol, that anybody should be bringing up. If you choose anybody else [Meyers Leonard, Vucevic, Boozer, etc? Really?], you really don't appreciate what KG brings to the table.
Leonard and Vucevic can play in five years, KG will not. It's called looking to the future
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No one, but if I could choose anyone to replace KG after he retires it would be Marc Gasol.
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Noah
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Noah, Duncan, Howard, Chandler, and maybe Cousins.
TP for solid selections. I don't know that I would give up KG for anybody but Howard, but these are really the only 5 names, plus Marc Gasol, that anybody should be bringing up. If you choose anybody else [Meyers Leonard, Vucevic, Boozer, etc? Really?], you really don't appreciate what KG brings to the table.
Leonard and Vucevic can play in five years, KG will not. It's called looking to the future
Is your only criteria how many years a player has left in his career? KG and TD are about the oldest centers in the NBA right now - would you rather have any other center in the league just because they can play longer?
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Tyson Chandler : WP/48 of .321 right now with 12.7 WP. Any day of the week. 16.2 rebounds/48.
Joakim Noah: WP/48 of .219 and 9.8 WP. Amazing passer too for a C.
Those are the top Tier.
Next would be Marc Gasol, Al Horford, Dwight Howard, Javale McGee, Deandre Jordan, and Andre Drummond. Possibly Greg Monroe.
Those are the "stars" I'd rather have.
The list no one will agree with:
Omer Asik, Tiago Splitter, Larry Sanders, Kosta Koufos, Greg Smith (love this kid), Marcin Gortat
There are 24 centers with better Wins Produced this year than KG. KG is an all time great, just not this year. This is one of his worst seasons by FAR. He is producing .082 WP/48 in alot of minutes, coming to only 3.0 Wins Produced. His 2000/2001 was his last "bad" season with a pretty good .143 WP/48, with 9.3 WP (with a massive 39.5 minutes/game)
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Howard
Jefferson
Mccge
Varejao
BOozer
Boozer = old, expensive, poor on defense
McGee = overpaid, low basketball IQ, little offense
Varejao = perpetually injured
Jefferson = overpaid, no defense
I'm surprised you'd prefer those guys over KG.
My point was if we do not have KG anymore, in case he will retire.
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Noah
Too slow, great rebounder, poor shoter
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Tyson Chandler : WP/48 of .321 right now with 12.7 WP. Any day of the week. 16.2 rebounds/48.
Joakim Noah: WP/48 of .219 and 9.8 WP. Amazing passer too for a C.
Those are the top Tier.
Next would be Marc Gasol, Al Horford, Dwight Howard, Javale McGee, Deandre Jordan, and Andre Drummond. Possibly Greg Monroe.
Those are the "stars" I'd rather have.
The list no one will agree with:
Omer Asik, Tiago Splitter, Larry Sanders, Kosta Koufos, Greg Smith (love this kid), Marcin Gortat
There are 24 centers with better Wins Produced this year than KG. KG is an all time great, just not this year. This is one of his worst seasons by FAR. He is producing .082 WP/48 in alot of minutes, coming to only 3.0 Wins Produced. His 2000/2001 was his last "bad" season with a pretty good .143 WP/48, with 9.3 WP (with a massive 39.5 minutes/game)
Nice list :) Gasol is top tier though.
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Tyson Chandler : WP/48 of .321 right now with 12.7 WP. Any day of the week. 16.2 rebounds/48.
Joakim Noah: WP/48 of .219 and 9.8 WP. Amazing passer too for a C.
Those are the top Tier.
Next would be Marc Gasol, Al Horford, Dwight Howard, Javale McGee, Deandre Jordan, and Andre Drummond. Possibly Greg Monroe.
Those are the "stars" I'd rather have.
The list no one will agree with:
Omer Asik, Tiago Splitter, Larry Sanders, Kosta Koufos, Greg Smith (love this kid), Marcin Gortat
There are 24 centers with better Wins Produced this year than KG. KG is an all time great, just not this year. This is one of his worst seasons by FAR. He is producing .082 WP/48 in alot of minutes, coming to only 3.0 Wins Produced. His 2000/2001 was his last "bad" season with a pretty good .143 WP/48, with 9.3 WP (with a massive 39.5 minutes/game)
Nice list :) Gasol is top tier though.
Thanks for the bump. My thing with Gasol is that his WP/48 has never been above .200, with a career avg. of "just" .147 WP/48. This is very good, and has had a couple great years, but never got to that elite level. Noah and Chandler average .230 and .233 WP/48 for their career, respectively.
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Tyson Chandler or Brooke Lopez, please. KG would move back to PF of course.
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Noah, Horford, and Drummond, granted we were able to keep them.
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Noah, Duncan, Howard, Chandler, and maybe Cousins.
TP for solid selections. I don't know that I would give up KG for anybody but Howard, but these are really the only 5 names, plus Marc Gasol, that anybody should be bringing up. If you choose anybody else [Meyers Leonard, Vucevic, Boozer, etc? Really?], you really don't appreciate what KG brings to the table.
Leonard and Vucevic can play in five years, KG will not. It's called looking to the future
Yeah, so let's give up on the next four.
Sorry for singling you out, this thread is full of uneducated answers.
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no one. No body. KG has been the best in the league for awhile. I have spent too many posts more than a year ago complaining about him not being down low. No more. he is the best center in the league and ahead of everyone enough to not make it worthwhile to trade him
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For the next ten years? Plenty.
For this year, there's no defensive center with as wide an offensive skill set aside from Duncan. And KG's my type of competitor, so I take him over Duncan, too. But that's preference.
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Tyson Chandler : WP/48 of .321 right now with 12.7 WP. Any day of the week. 16.2 rebounds/48.
Joakim Noah: WP/48 of .219 and 9.8 WP. Amazing passer too for a C.
Those are the top Tier.
Next would be Marc Gasol, Al Horford, Dwight Howard, Javale McGee, Deandre Jordan, and Andre Drummond. Possibly Greg Monroe.
Those are the "stars" I'd rather have.
The list no one will agree with:
Omer Asik, Tiago Splitter, Larry Sanders, Kosta Koufos, Greg Smith (love this kid), Marcin Gortat
There are 24 centers with better Wins Produced this year than KG. KG is an all time great, just not this year. This is one of his worst seasons by FAR. He is producing .082 WP/48 in alot of minutes, coming to only 3.0 Wins Produced. His 2000/2001 was his last "bad" season with a pretty good .143 WP/48, with 9.3 WP (with a massive 39.5 minutes/game)
Howard will return to form, so I would put him up with the other guys.
No Hibbert whatsoever?
I would take Howard, Chandler, M Gasol, Noah, and Horford. A lot of the other guys are not the type that would definitely make a big enough impact for me to jettison KG.
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Tyson Chandler : WP/48 of .321 right now with 12.7 WP. Any day of the week. 16.2 rebounds/48.
Joakim Noah: WP/48 of .219 and 9.8 WP. Amazing passer too for a C.
Those are the top Tier.
Next would be Marc Gasol, Al Horford, Dwight Howard, Javale McGee, Deandre Jordan, and Andre Drummond. Possibly Greg Monroe.
Those are the "stars" I'd rather have.
The list no one will agree with:
Omer Asik, Tiago Splitter, Larry Sanders, Kosta Koufos, Greg Smith (love this kid), Marcin Gortat
There are 24 centers with better Wins Produced this year than KG. KG is an all time great, just not this year. This is one of his worst seasons by FAR. He is producing .082 WP/48 in alot of minutes, coming to only 3.0 Wins Produced. His 2000/2001 was his last "bad" season with a pretty good .143 WP/48, with 9.3 WP (with a massive 39.5 minutes/game)
Howard will return to form, so I would put him up with the other guys.
No Hibbert whatsoever?
I would take Howard, Chandler, M Gasol, Noah, and Horford. A lot of the other guys are not the type that would definitely make a big enough impact for me to jettison KG.
Hibbert is overrated. His career WP/48 of .061 (best year being last year of .161, this year being .084) makes him just not that good. He doesn't rebound that much better than average, turns the ball over too much and his TS% is atrocious for a center. 46% true shooting % this year (with decent FT shooting!). That's terrible. The average center shoots at about 54 TS%.
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To anyone that has posted or will post Javale Mcgee's name in this thread:
Have shame.
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Whoever listed Duncan ... really? Duncan is pretty much just as old and worn out as KG is, and IMHO KG is the more versatile player right now. In fact IMHO KG always was the better player.
Tyson Chandler or Brooke Lopez, please. KG would move back to PF of course.
Brook Lopez?
You really want a 7 foot center who struggles to grab 7 rebounds per game?
Joakim Noah: WP/48 of .219 and 9.8 WP. Amazing passer too for a C.
Those are the top Tier.
Next would be Marc Gasol, Al Horford, Dwight Howard, Javale McGee, Deandre Jordan, and Andre Drummond. Possibly Greg Monroe.
Those are the "stars" I'd rather have.
The list no one will agree with:
Omer Asik, Tiago Splitter, Larry Sanders, Kosta Koufos, Greg Smith (love this kid), Marcin Gortat
There are 24 centers with better Wins Produced this year than KG. KG is an all time great, just not this year. This is one of his worst seasons by FAR. He is producing .082 WP/48 in alot of minutes, coming to only 3.0 Wins Produced. His 2000/2001 was his last "bad" season with a pretty good .143 WP/48, with 9.3 WP (with a massive 39.5 minutes/game)
You DO realise that there is more to basketball than WS / 48 right?
Joakim Noah is NOT a top Tier Center. He's a good center, not top tier. The only reason I'd consider Noah over KG is future potential - in their current states I'd take KG any time, but Noah obviously has more years in him.
Javale McGee, Deandre Jordan and Andre Drummond are not stars. I don't know much ab our Drummond but McGee and Jordan are pretty similar players - athletic bigs who's talent level pretty much stops at dunking, rebounding and blocking shot. Jordan has practically no offensive game, and McGee will lose you more games than he wins with his moronic behaviour.
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Whoever listed Duncan ... really? Duncan is pretty much just as old and worn out as KG is, and IMHO KG is the more versatile player right now. In fact IMHO KG always was the better player.
Tyson Chandler or Brooke Lopez, please. KG would move back to PF of course.
Brook Lopez?
You really want a 7 foot center who struggles to grab 7 rebounds per game?
Joakim Noah: WP/48 of .219 and 9.8 WP. Amazing passer too for a C.
Those are the top Tier.
Next would be Marc Gasol, Al Horford, Dwight Howard, Javale McGee, Deandre Jordan, and Andre Drummond. Possibly Greg Monroe.
Those are the "stars" I'd rather have.
The list no one will agree with:
Omer Asik, Tiago Splitter, Larry Sanders, Kosta Koufos, Greg Smith (love this kid), Marcin Gortat
There are 24 centers with better Wins Produced this year than KG. KG is an all time great, just not this year. This is one of his worst seasons by FAR. He is producing .082 WP/48 in alot of minutes, coming to only 3.0 Wins Produced. His 2000/2001 was his last "bad" season with a pretty good .143 WP/48, with 9.3 WP (with a massive 39.5 minutes/game)
You DO realise that there is more to basketball than WS / 48 right?
Joakim Noah is NOT a top Tier Center. He's a good center, not top tier. The only reason I'd consider Noah over KG is future potential - in their current states I'd take KG any time, but Noah obviously has more years in him.
Javale McGee, Deandre Jordan and Andre Drummond are not stars. I don't know much ab our Drummond but McGee and Jordan are pretty similar players - athletic bigs who's talent level pretty much stops at dunking, rebounding and blocking shot. Jordan has practically no offensive game, and McGee will lose you more games than he wins with his moronic behaviour.
Tim Duncan is averaging almost a double-double and 2.8 blocks in 29 minutes and getting payed less stop being a homer
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brandon bass the next all star
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If you are talking right now this year and not rebuilding?
I would take Noah and thats it. And the only reason I would take Noah is because you don't have to limit his minutes.
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I would take Noah, Chandler...that's it.
Whoever said Roy Hibbert? Puh-leaze. He has always been a stiff.
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Long term I would want Vucevic. A still 22 year-old 7 footer who is averaging 12.3 ppg and 11.4 rpg, what's there not to like.
Suddenly that Magic trade for Howard doesn't seem so bad.
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Long term I would want Vucevic. A still 22 year-old 7 footer who is averaging 12.3 ppg and 11.4 rpg, what's there not to like.
Suddenly that Magic trade for Howard doesn't seem so bad.
Add that with the fact that they got extra picks and Moe Harkless, Magic did pretty well, they also did pretty well getting Tobias Harris in the Redick trade
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Right now at this moment, absolutely nobody. I'd take my chances with KG against Horford, Noah, Lopez, Bosh, Chandler, Hibert, and Sanders in the playoffs.
You could sell me on developing Anthony Davis into a center. Add 20-25 pounds to his young KG-like frame and you've got something.
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This how weak the current nba centers are:
tim duncan & kevin garnett playing at their current levels at their age and with limited minutes
put both guys at 30 minutes a game in a playoff series and no nba "youngsters" are in the same ballpark
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Whoever listed Duncan ... really? Duncan is pretty much just as old and worn out as KG is, and IMHO KG is the more versatile player right now. In fact IMHO KG always was the better player.
Tyson Chandler or Brooke Lopez, please. KG would move back to PF of course.
Brook Lopez?
You really want a 7 foot center who struggles to grab 7 rebounds per game?
Joakim Noah: WP/48 of .219 and 9.8 WP. Amazing passer too for a C.
Those are the top Tier.
Next would be Marc Gasol, Al Horford, Dwight Howard, Javale McGee, Deandre Jordan, and Andre Drummond. Possibly Greg Monroe.
Those are the "stars" I'd rather have.
The list no one will agree with:
Omer Asik, Tiago Splitter, Larry Sanders, Kosta Koufos, Greg Smith (love this kid), Marcin Gortat
There are 24 centers with better Wins Produced this year than KG. KG is an all time great, just not this year. This is one of his worst seasons by FAR. He is producing .082 WP/48 in alot of minutes, coming to only 3.0 Wins Produced. His 2000/2001 was his last "bad" season with a pretty good .143 WP/48, with 9.3 WP (with a massive 39.5 minutes/game)
You DO realise that there is more to basketball than WS / 48 right?
Joakim Noah is NOT a top Tier Center. He's a good center, not top tier. The only reason I'd consider Noah over KG is future potential - in their current states I'd take KG any time, but Noah obviously has more years in him.
Javale McGee, Deandre Jordan and Andre Drummond are not stars. I don't know much ab our Drummond but McGee and Jordan are pretty similar players - athletic bigs who's talent level pretty much stops at dunking, rebounding and blocking shot. Jordan has practically no offensive game, and McGee will lose you more games than he wins with his moronic behaviour.
Tim Duncan is averaging almost a double-double and 2.8 blocks in 29 minutes and getting payed less stop being a homer
First off, i did not use Win Shares per 48, it was Wins Produced per 48, a completely different stat. It is the highest correlated stat to actual NBA wins derived and has been able to predict within a percent or two of the total actual Wins a team gets (averaged over every team). Now beyond that, i know that is not the be all end all of analysis, i just knew that my post was getting long and discussing much more in depth stats would have been very long winded. Your analysis of Deandre Jordan, Mcgee and especially Drummond are quite lacking. These players are stars in that they produce on the basketball court far above average. Did you know that Javale Mcgee's Turnovers/48 is exactly average for his position (his career average is actually lower than position average). Doesn't sound incredibly boneheaded to me. Over the last 4 years he's averaged 13.7 rbds/48 and over 5 off rbds/48! That's awesome. He also has an amazing True Shooting % of 58.9%! (centers average 54.2%). Truely a gifted player who has a bad rap.
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I've got it
Bill Russell
Dave Cowens
Robert Parish
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Whoever listed Duncan ... really? Duncan is pretty much just as old and worn out as KG is, and IMHO KG is the more versatile player right now. In fact IMHO KG always was the better player.
Tyson Chandler or Brooke Lopez, please. KG would move back to PF of course.
Brook Lopez?
You really want a 7 foot center who struggles to grab 7 rebounds per game?
Joakim Noah: WP/48 of .219 and 9.8 WP. Amazing passer too for a C.
Those are the top Tier.
Next would be Marc Gasol, Al Horford, Dwight Howard, Javale McGee, Deandre Jordan, and Andre Drummond. Possibly Greg Monroe.
Those are the "stars" I'd rather have.
The list no one will agree with:
Omer Asik, Tiago Splitter, Larry Sanders, Kosta Koufos, Greg Smith (love this kid), Marcin Gortat
There are 24 centers with better Wins Produced this year than KG. KG is an all time great, just not this year. This is one of his worst seasons by FAR. He is producing .082 WP/48 in alot of minutes, coming to only 3.0 Wins Produced. His 2000/2001 was his last "bad" season with a pretty good .143 WP/48, with 9.3 WP (with a massive 39.5 minutes/game)
You DO realise that there is more to basketball than WS / 48 right?
Joakim Noah is NOT a top Tier Center. He's a good center, not top tier. The only reason I'd consider Noah over KG is future potential - in their current states I'd take KG any time, but Noah obviously has more years in him.
Javale McGee, Deandre Jordan and Andre Drummond are not stars. I don't know much ab our Drummond but McGee and Jordan are pretty similar players - athletic bigs who's talent level pretty much stops at dunking, rebounding and blocking shot. Jordan has practically no offensive game, and McGee will lose you more games than he wins with his moronic behaviour.
Tim Duncan is averaging almost a double-double and 2.8 blocks in 29 minutes and getting payed less stop being a homer
First off, i did not use Win Shares per 48, it was Wins Produced per 48, a completely different stat. It is the highest correlated stat to actual NBA wins derived and has been able to predict within a percent or two of the total actual Wins a team gets (averaged over every team). Now beyond that, i know that is not the be all end all of analysis, i just knew that my post was getting long and discussing much more in depth stats would have been very long winded. Your analysis of Deandre Jordan, Mcgee and especially Drummond are quite lacking. These players are stars in that they produce on the basketball court far above average. Did you know that Javale Mcgee's Turnovers/48 is exactly average for his position (his career average is actually lower than position average). Doesn't sound incredibly boneheaded to me. Over the last 4 years he's averaged 13.7 rbds/48 and over 5 off rbds/48! That's awesome. He also has an amazing True Shooting % of 58.9%! (centers average 54.2%). Truely a gifted player who has a bad rap.
The vaunted '95%' correlation of Wins Produced is a bit of a case of patting oneself on the back. The individual WP apportionment are ultimately fractional shares distributed from whole team wins, thus in aggregation simply reconstitute themselves. If WP did not do that well at team win correlation I would be worried. The problem with WP is that it suffers from the same fundamental flaw that Win Shares and PER suffer: The weighted value assigned to each contributing 'box score' stat that goes into its calculation is both arbitrary and completely lacking context.
By 'context' I mean that the weight of expected production in each category is contextual based on team and role. The expectations of a starting center on team A are completely different from the expectations of a starting center on team B. Even more so the difference in expectations across different positions. Each player may be just as 'valuable' to each team but for completely different reasons.
Derivative, aggregation stats in basketball currently all suffer from this problem.
Similar stats in baseball, such as WAR, have proven successful for the reason that in baseball, you have several key differences:
1) There is no salary cap. Thus dollar valuations of contracts are closer to market driven rather than skewed by cap and exception rules. This is important because it provides a sanity check for the models.
2) Roles in baseball are highly compartmentalized, well defined and consistent across teams. The offensive expectations of all hitters are consistent across all positions and teams. The defensive expectations across positions are different, but are again, consistent across teams.
3) Even though defensive expectations are different across positions, we are able to know exactly when a player is in each position.
These things enable models to adjust say, the defensive value of a shortstop versus that of a DH.
Basketball lacks all of these things and aggregate 'roll up' stats continue to be a crap shoot for evaluating individual players.
This is not to say that PER, WS and WP are completely useless. But they are only useful when comparing players within very tightly similar contexts.
It's late and I don't have time to post a full rational on why, but having looked extensively at a lot of the statistics prior to the All Star break, I remain unconvinced that any center in the East is playing better than Kevin Garnett so far this season. I've posted elsewhere showing that his rate normalized production and efficiencies across all aspects (offense AND defense) were pretty clearly better than those of Chandler, Noah, Bosh, Hibbert et al. The reasoning ultimately boils down to that everyone of the other centers in the East is fundamentally flawed along some axis. It is important to note that in this analysis, yes, I am assigning my own arbitrary 'weight' to each factor. But it is MY analysis and it should reflect what I consider valuable in the assessment. I admit I did not do the comparison with centers from the West. If I have time, I may pull that together. I can accept that its possible one or two of those guys out west might edge KG.
So, to the purpose of the thread - if the question is who I would take over KG right now fort he present? No one.
If for the future? That depends on how far down the road. Long term, probably Vusevic or Drummond. Not so long-term, maybe Noah.