CelticsStrong
Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: edwardjkasche on February 27, 2013, 02:41:40 PM
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I listed this in response to someone's FanPost about how the Celtics can get their next Franchise Player - considering Pierce and KG will soon retire and Rondo may not be a franchise player.
I wanted to get a wider collection of responses.
What do you guys think of the Celtics' young assets?
Do you think a collection of them can be spun in trades similar to what Ainge did back in 2007?
Current Young Assets:
Rondo 27yo, 3yr/$36mil contract
Green 26yo, 4yr/$36mil contract
Bradley 22yo, rookie deal
Sully 20yo, rookie deal
Melo 22yo, rookie deal
Lee 27yo, 4yr/$20mil contract
Crawford 24yo, $3mil expiring contract next season
Bass 27yo, 3yr/$19mil contract
Draft Picks
EIGHT players under the age of 28. Only one makes more than $9mil per season (Rondo, and hes under market value at $12mil).
And, we have ALL our draft picks (minus this years 2nd rounder).
My contention is that Ainge is in better position NOW than he was in 2007 when he traded for Allen and KG.
In 2007,
- Traded the 5th pick (Jeff Green!)/Wally Szczerbiak/Delonte West for Ray Allen and the 2nd round pick used to draft Big Baby.
- Traded Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes, Theo Ratliff, Gerald Green, Sebastian Telfair, protected 1st round pick, and conditional 1st round pick for KG.
In order to get Allen we gave up a lottery pick, but look who the 5th pick was
Jeff Green
who we got back anyhow.
We basically gave up Al Jefferson and some lousy 1st round picks for KG.
We have better young assets now! And, after a season without Pierce and KG, we may have another lottery pick to trade.
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I think he'll need more and better assets to make a 2008-type deal. In 2008 Ainge had enough young assets and expiring contracts that he could move a bunch of them and still have some key pieces left to help on the roster (Rondo, Perk). I think he'll need to go a couple of years of drafting more decent young players to make a big trade and still have some quality left on the roster. If JJJ had panned out, he'd have been able to get more than Lee in the last deal.
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Ainge lacks an Al Jefferson type player who another team can be fooled into thinking they can build around him.
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Unfortunately, none of the current young assets equals the "in his prime" Paul Pierce that Danny had back in 2007.
Rondo is very good, and he's the closest, but he's no Pierce. He is likely to get better, but I doubt he'll ever be as good as Pierce was in his prime.
I'd say that Green is the best of the rest. I think he is as good as what Jefferson turned out to be, but not as good as the potential of what Jefferson might became as perceived in 2007. I doubt he could be the main piece to bring in anybody even close to KG.
The rest are all seen as having flaws that lessen their values. Bradley's shoulders and lack of offense; Sully's back; Lee wilting under pressure; Melo being raw; Crawford's bad attitude; and Bass being maxed out at a roleplayer are all seen as being flaws in our players. Fairly or unfairly other GM's see these flaws and don't see any potential "breakout" stars among them.
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The best hope Ainge has at the moment is for a sign and trade opportunity, and I personally believe we're in a good position to make something like that happen.
The other thing is that with the consideration of the hard cap and heavy tax penalties, many teams will be more averse than ever at taking salary, and also will have even more buyers remorse than ever, which should net us some good opportunities. Considering our depth at our guards, and the expendability of Bass when considering that we have a very promising prospect in Sully, should give us some good/decent assets we can use to alleviate some teams of some of these burdens.
At a glance, Sacramento is one that comes to mind as a good example. In a couple of years Tyreke Evans and Cousins will be in contract years, so they'll have some tough decisions to make. While this is going on, they have their seldom used Chuck Hayes (excellent defensive player) for 3 years, and Jason Thompson for 5 years, etc.
So there's an opportunity here.
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Ainge lacks an Al Jefferson type player who another team can be fooled into thinking they can build around him.
Rondo's probably the closest thing but is also much more valuable now then Jefferson was at that juncture in 2007. Plus, I just really don't want to move Rondo for the majority of the trade suggestions that were floated out there at the deadline Think he's a great complementary part of a rebuild.
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Ainge lacks an Al Jefferson type player who another team can be fooled into thinking they can build around him.
Rondo's probably the closest thing but is also much more valuable now then Jefferson was at that juncture in 2007. Plus, I just really don't want to move Rondo for the majority of the trade suggestions that were floated out there at the deadline Think he's a great complementary part of a rebuild.
The thing that has me on the fence at the moment is how deep we're in our guard rotation for the next couple of years, if we can net a [dang] good player who has size, I just don't see how one pass up the opportunity. I'm in win now mode, and it's just what makes the most sense to me. That said, it doesn't mean that there aren't avenues one can explore.
Terry + Lee + Bass have a lot of movable salary, which can net us someone who fits in a lesser type of deal.
Don't know, we'll see.
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Ainge lacks an Al Jefferson type player who another team can be fooled into thinking they can build around him.
Rondo's probably the closest thing but is also much more valuable now then Jefferson was at that juncture in 2007. Plus, I just really don't want to move Rondo for the majority of the trade suggestions that were floated out there at the deadline Think he's a great complementary part of a rebuild.
I'm not pushing for this, but Rondo might be the guy that Danny actually trades for an expiring Nick Exel and 3rd pick in the draft, rather than hangs on to.
Danny didn't make that trade for Pierce. If he had the C's would have developed much differently.
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I think from a production and value standpoint rajon is equal to pierce. He was 29 going on 30 and had a max deal when we got kg. I think sully could evolve into a big al type prospect if he keeps developing and stays healthy. AB might be able to as well. Fab melo is similar in value to Gerald green. We just don't have the high picks and big expiring deals unless you count pierce. Jeff green is better asset then Wally was also.
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Rondo is very good, and he's the closest, but he's no Pierce. He is likely to get better, but I doubt he'll ever be as good as Pierce was in his prime.
We can't write him off yet. He can be way better than Pierce or not nearly as good. He's just getting started.
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Rondo is so much more valuable (as a player and marketing star) than Al Jefferson ever was to a team willing to trade a "franchise player" (ala Minnesota-KG) who they cannot re-sign.
I can see almost any team in the league trading for an under-contract Rondo, even if it's only for one season plus the shot of re-signing him.
I didn't even include the expiring contracts of our vets because we really don't have any yet. In a year or two, there will be Terry and KG, possibly Pierce, but that will again raise the argument of trading franchise greats like Pierce and KG. Terry, obviously, is expendable.
By the time those contracts are up, Ainge could sign-and-trade Rondo, because his deal will be up.
I'm not sure if this is possible, but couldn't Ainge during one of the next few off-seasons trade the (expiring?) contracts of KG and Pierce, only to have them retire when they report to their new teams? The other team would clear the money and we would get whichever players we traded for. We could then still hold a "retirement night" and retire their numbers. Is that possible? Like if we had traded Al Jefferson for KG and then Jefferson retired, the trade would still count, right?
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Ainge lacks an Al Jefferson type player who another team can be fooled into thinking they can build around him.
Rondo's probably the closest thing but is also much more valuable now then Jefferson was at that juncture in 2007. Plus, I just really don't want to move Rondo for the majority of the trade suggestions that were floated out there at the deadline Think he's a great complementary part of a rebuild.
The thing that has me on the fence at the moment is how deep we're in our guard rotation for the next couple of years, if we can net a [dang] good player who has size, I just don't see how one pass up the opportunity. I'm in win now mode, and it's just what makes the most sense to me. That said, it doesn't mean that there aren't avenues one can explore.
Terry + Lee + Bass have a lot of movable salary, which can net us someone who fits in a lesser type of deal.
Don't know, we'll see.
Aside from Rondo we have a lot of depth at guard but all the players are average(ish) or worse.
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Unfortunately, I just don't think we have the assets to make a Ray Allen/KG type trade.
As others mentioned, in 2007 Danny had alot of young and affordable unproven talent as well as expiring contracts to land a franchise player.
Now, between Jeff Green, Lee, Terry and Bass you're talking about 4 players who are actually veterans in the league and basically known as mid-level complimentary role players.
I suppose Green could become a franchise player, but have yet to see any evidence suggest that.
Furthermore, all of those contracts are going to be VERY hard to move. Bass, Lee, and Green all have 3 remaining years while Terry has 2 remaining years (not good for a 34 year old guard.) Not to mention, these guys are under contract for a pretty good yearly salary, which means no major salary relief in sight to go after max free agents (I don't think.)
At this point, I think our most valuable and tradable players (believe it or not) are Rondo and Pierce
Problem with Rondo is I just hope his torn ACL didn't kill any trade value he had. Pierce will have an expiring contract next year which could land you something good
This is why I wouldn't have minded seeing Pierce dealt for Humprhies and Brooks and KG dealt for Bledsoe and Jordan.
Those could've been 4 tradable assets which we now don't have.
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Rondo is so much more valuable (as a player and marketing star) than Al Jefferson ever was to a team willing to trade a "franchise player" (ala Minnesota-KG) who they cannot re-sign.
I can see almost any team in the league trading for an under-contract Rondo, even if it's only for one season plus the shot of re-signing him.
I didn't even include the expiring contracts of our vets because we really don't have any yet. In a year or two, there will be Terry and KG, possibly Pierce, but that will again raise the argument of trading franchise greats like Pierce and KG. Terry, obviously, is expendable.
By the time those contracts are up, Ainge could sign-and-trade Rondo, because his deal will be up.
I'm not sure if this is possible, but couldn't Ainge during one of the next few off-seasons trade the (expiring?) contracts of KG and Pierce, only to have them retire when they report to their new teams? The other team would clear the money and we would get whichever players we traded for. We could then still hold a "retirement night" and retire their numbers. Is that possible? Like if we had traded Al Jefferson for KG and then Jefferson retired, the trade would still count, right?
Hard to say. Don't forget Jefferson had the trade value of being a potentially very good center when he was younger. Those are (at least to me) more valuable than point guards. The other thing that may hurt Rondo's trade value is he's not known as an effective scorer (like Paul, Rose, Westbrook, Irving, etc.)
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At this point, Rondo shouldn't be traded until after he plays some real NBA games. Ainge should be unwilling to give Rondo away only for something close to what he would have wanted if Rondo was uninjured and other teams should not be willing to give away that much. Also, keep in mind that teams tend to overvalue scoring, so they will tend to undervalue Rondo, preferring an inferior player capable of scoring 20ppg.
In the off-season, the Celtics will have three players who will be expiring contracts: Pierce, Bradley, and Crawford. Plus, Ainge may fill the empty roster spots with players on unguaranteed contracts for next season. So, my off-season trade ideas would center around Pierce used as trade ballast to acquire a star or a package of Crawford, guys who can be waived immediately without a salary cap hit, Fab Melo, and draft picks to acquire a non-star.
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I think AB and/or Sully can be the center of a package for an all star.
Just depends on what kind of star you are looking for. Kevin Garnetts are once in a lifetime talent. Stars aligned for that and I dont think Al Jefferson was good return for that as pretty much everyone outside of boston would say we stole him (kind of like LA and Pau).
Al jeff for KG was ultimate no brainer. Al jeff for Amare not so much.
Will we get a once in a generation talent for AB/Sully and have the stars again? Its a no brainer if so otherwise you are stuck with second tier stars and need to decide from there.
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As a head coach, McHale can't hand him a successful franchise this time around. Relying on Ainge's aptitude, therefore, we stand to suck for a long time (i.e. till he's fired).
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As a head coach, McHale can't hand him a successful franchise this time around. Relying on Ainge's aptitude, therefore, we stand to suck for a long time (i.e. till he's fired).
McHale didn't land us Ray Allen, and it was that deal that brought the KG one into fruition in the first place. Also, I've yet to hear of a team that offered a better package than ours, also, it took a lot of balls by Ainge to do it regardless of how "no brainer" the trade looks now because back then, it was anything but that.
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Ainge lacks an Al Jefferson type player who another team can be fooled into thinking they can build around him.
Rondo's probably the closest thing but is also much more valuable now then Jefferson was at that juncture in 2007. Plus, I just really don't want to move Rondo for the majority of the trade suggestions that were floated out there at the deadline Think he's a great complementary part of a rebuild.
The thing that has me on the fence at the moment is how deep we're in our guard rotation for the next couple of years, if we can net a [dang] good player who has size, I just don't see how one pass up the opportunity. I'm in win now mode, and it's just what makes the most sense to me. That said, it doesn't mean that there aren't avenues one can explore.
Terry + Lee + Bass have a lot of movable salary, which can net us someone who fits in a lesser type of deal.
Don't know, we'll see.
Aside from Rondo we have a lot of depth at guard but all the players are average(ish) or worse.
You can say the same thing about any position in our roster, and I think average(ish) or worse is underselling it a bit. It's a talented and skillful group, and [dang] good defensively.
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We better try to snag another good rookie with this year's 1st round pick (16 to 20 - highest pick since long ago)and develop the young guys until KG/PP/Jet retire.
Then, either suck enough to get a lottery pick (this might require trading Rondo) and/or use cap space for trades, absorbing bad contracts and getting lottery picks in the process. This way you don't need to completely suck, and you can get a piece to build, or combine 2 lottery picks to trade up and get a star. It's not very likely that anyone gives you a superstar in his prime for young prospects.
Avoid the Pistons route to use the cap space and everything will fall into place. We just need to be patient, though, and enjoy this team while it's still playing
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I think AB and/or Sully can be the center of a package for an all star.
Just depends on what kind of star you are looking for. Kevin Garnetts are once in a lifetime talent. Stars aligned for that and I dont think Al Jefferson was good return for that as pretty much everyone outside of boston would say we stole him (kind of like LA and Pau).
Al jeff for KG was ultimate no brainer. Al jeff for Amare not so much.
Will we get a once in a generation talent for AB/Sully and have the stars again? Its a no brainer if so otherwise you are stuck with second tier stars and need to decide from there.
May have been the ultimate no-brainer for Danny, but for a lot of Celtics fans and plenty of media members that deal was not a smash hit. Big Al was very young and very popular. Garnett was over 30. Lots of folks complained. Luckily Danny was courageous enough to trade "the future" for what turned out to be a much better future.....
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Ainge lacks an Al Jefferson type player who another team can be fooled into thinking they can build around him.
Rondo's probably the closest thing but is also much more valuable now then Jefferson was at that juncture in 2007. Plus, I just really don't want to move Rondo for the majority of the trade suggestions that were floated out there at the deadline Think he's a great complementary part of a rebuild.
The thing that has me on the fence at the moment is how deep we're in our guard rotation for the next couple of years, if we can net a [dang] good player who has size, I just don't see how one pass up the opportunity. I'm in win now mode, and it's just what makes the most sense to me. That said, it doesn't mean that there aren't avenues one can explore.
Terry + Lee + Bass have a lot of movable salary, which can net us someone who fits in a lesser type of deal.
Don't know, we'll see.
Aside from Rondo we have a lot of depth at guard but all the players are average(ish) or worse.
You can say the same thing about any position in our roster, and I think average(ish) or worse is underselling it a bit. It's a talented and skillful group, and [dang] good defensively.
We've got 3 players that are well above average in Rondo and PP and KG. Lee and Bradley are good defenders but they aren't above average at scoring, passing or ball handling. Decent overall but below average on offense.
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I think AB and/or Sully can be the center of a package for an all star.
Just depends on what kind of star you are looking for. Kevin Garnetts are once in a lifetime talent. Stars aligned for that and I dont think Al Jefferson was good return for that as pretty much everyone outside of boston would say we stole him (kind of like LA and Pau).
Al jeff for KG was ultimate no brainer. Al jeff for Amare not so much.
Will we get a once in a generation talent for AB/Sully and have the stars again? Its a no brainer if so otherwise you are stuck with second tier stars and need to decide from there.
May have been the ultimate no-brainer for Danny, but for a lot of Celtics fans and plenty of media members that deal was not a smash hit. Big Al was very young and very popular. Garnett was over 30. Lots of folks complained. Luckily Danny was courageous enough to trade "the future" for what turned out to be a much better future.....
Yes, history has shown quite clearly that the Garnett deal was a steal.
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I think AB and/or Sully can be the center of a package for an all star.
Just depends on what kind of star you are looking for. Kevin Garnetts are once in a lifetime talent. Stars aligned for that and I dont think Al Jefferson was good return for that as pretty much everyone outside of boston would say we stole him (kind of like LA and Pau).
Al jeff for KG was ultimate no brainer. Al jeff for Amare not so much.
Will we get a once in a generation talent for AB/Sully and have the stars again? Its a no brainer if so otherwise you are stuck with second tier stars and need to decide from there.
May have been the ultimate no-brainer for Danny, but for a lot of Celtics fans and plenty of media members that deal was not a smash hit. Big Al was very young and very popular. Garnett was over 30. Lots of folks complained. Luckily Danny was courageous enough to trade "the future" for what turned out to be a much better future.....
Yes, history has shown quite clearly that the Garnett deal was a steal.
It's pretty rare that teams trade players like KG and get fair value in return. We were probably the only team offering a young big like Jefferson, who was putting up 23/11 for the wolves when he was injured. I think his injury took quite a bit out of their return.