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Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: PhoSita on January 25, 2013, 02:30:12 AM

Title: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
Post by: PhoSita on January 25, 2013, 02:30:12 AM
It seems to me that a common assumption is that point guards who rack up a lot of assists are generating offense for their team.  In other words, a point guard who generates a lot of assists is usually running an efficient, productive offense.  Seems like it ought to work that way, at least.

But the past few seasons for the Celtics have refuted that notion.  How is it that Rondo piles on the assists, yet the Celtics have one of the worst offenses in the league?

I wanted to take a look at the offenses that other top assist-getters have run over the last 20 years or so.  Does leading the league in assists always correlate with having a high powered offense?


The following is a table (sorry for the rough formatting) listing the season assist-per-game leaders for the last 20 seasons, including this season.  Also listed are some of the key offensive stats for the teams the assist leaders played on, and how the teams ranked league-wide in each of those categories.


Seasons   APG Leader   APG   Team   Team ORtg   Team EFG%   Team PPG   Team Record
2012-2013   Rajon Rondo   11.1   BOS   102.1 (27th)   .493% (12th)   94.9 (23rd)   20-22 (17th)
2011-2012   Rajon Rondo   11.7   BOS   101.0 (26th)   .496% (10th)   91.8 (26th)   39-27 (10th)
2010-2011   Steve Nash   11.42   PHO   109.5 (9th)   .522 (5th)   105.0 (4th)   40-42 (17th)
2009-2010   Steve Nash   11.01   PHO   115.3 (1st)   .546 (1st)   110.2 (1st)   54-28 (5th)
2008-2009   Chris Paul   11.04   NOH   108.7 (12th)   .501 (13th)   95.8 (26th)   49-33 (10th)
2007-2008   Chris Paul   11.56   NOH   111.5 (5th)   .512 (6th)   100.9 (9th)   56-26 (4th)
2006-2007   Steve Nash   11.63   PHO   113.9 (1st)   .551 (1st)   110.2 (1st)   61-21 (2nd)
2005-2006   Steve Nash   10.46   PHO   111.5 (2nd)   .537 (1st)   108.4 (1st)   54-28 (4th)
2004-2005   Steve Nash   11.48   PHO   114.5 (1st)   .534 (1st)   110.4 (1st)   62-20 (1st)
2003-2004   Jason Kidd   9.22   NJN   100.8 (25th)   .471 (16th)   90.3 (22nd)   47-35 (9th)
2002-2003   Jason Kidd   8.9   NJN   103.8 (18th)   .468 (21st)   95.4 (14th)   49-33 (8th)
2001-2002   Andre Miller   10.9   CLE   104.6 (14th)   .477 (12th)   95.3 (16th)   29-53 (24th)
2000-2001   Jason Kidd   9.8   PHO   100.3 (22nd)   .460 (22nd)   94.0 (17th)   51-31 (8th)
1999-2000   Jason Kidd   10.1   PHO   104.6 (16th)   .491 (7th)   98.9 (12th)   53-29 (5th)
1998-1999   Jason Kidd   10.8   PHO   105.8 (3rd)   .481 (8th)   95.6 (3rd)   27-23 (14th)
1997-1998   Rod Strickland   10.54   WAS   105.2 (14th)   .476 (15th)   97.2 (8th)   42-40 (16th)
1996-1997   Mark Jackson   11.4   DEN / IND   104.5 (24th) / 105.8 (15th)   .486 (18th) / .490 (17th)   97.8 (13th) / 95.4 (20th)   21-61 (26th) / 39-43 (17th)
1995-1996   John Stockton   11.17   UTA   113.3 (2nd)   .517 (5th)   102.5 (10th)   55-27 (5th)
1994-1995   John Stockton   12.33   UTA   114.3 (4th)   .535 (2nd)   106.4 (5th)   60-22 (2nd)
1993-1994   John Stockton   12.57   UTA   108.6 (7th)   .490 (10th)   101.9 (10th)   53-29 (8th)
1992-1993   John Stockton   12.04   UTA   109.6 (6th)   .498 (11th)   106.2 (11th)   47-35 (10th)


The results aren't entirely surprising.  Steve Nash's teams are almost always near the top of the league in offensive categories.  Whatever he does in terms of running an offense, he does it well.  Even when he had crappy teammates his last two seasons in Phoenix, his teams were still in the top 3rd in the league offensively.

In fact, it looks as though the Celtics of this season and last are the weakest offenses among the twenty teams on the list -- the only team that comes close is the 2003-2004 Nets led by Jason Kidd.


I don't really have answers for this.  I'm not saying that Rondo is to blame for the Celtics' offensive struggles (though he must play some part).  But it has to be at least somewhat of an indictment on him that though he leads the league in assists, his teams are still very underwhelming offensively, right?
Title: Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
Post by: bfrombleacher on January 25, 2013, 02:35:24 AM
Apparently Hornets in their final year of their Chris Paul era didn't have much offensive efficiency either.

Nash had a crappy support cast in Phoenix but the pieces fit. They ran and gunned. Not saying Nash wasn't a better play maker than Rondo though (because he was), just saying his support cast may have sucked but the pieces fit.
Title: Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
Post by: PhoSita on January 25, 2013, 02:57:20 AM
Apparently Hornets in their final year of their Chris Paul era didn't have much offensive efficiency either.

Nash had a crappy support cast in Phoenix but the pieces fit. They ran and gunned. Not saying Nash wasn't a better play maker than Rondo though (because he was), just saying his support cast may have sucked but the pieces fit.

Well, even the 08-09 Hornets, though not a super powerful offensive team, were in the top half in most categories.  And those Hornets teams were pretty much just Chris Paul, David West, and Tyson Chandler.  The fact that Paul turned that into above average offensive production is pretty remarkable.  Even the 2010-2011 Hornets were better in terms of efficiency than the Celtics of this year and last.
Title: Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
Post by: RJ87 on January 25, 2013, 03:15:01 AM
I'm curious as to how many points in the paint those teams got. I'm assuming higher than what this current Celtics team averages.

Chris Paul may have "only" had Tyson and D.West but those guys got points in the paint. Nash had Amare as his pick and roll partner. Jason Kidd had pre-injuries Kenyon Martin, Stockton had Malone.... basically those point guards had big men who could get high percentage shots in the paint.

The Celtics don't really have that.  All of their bigs rely on jumpers, I feel like most of ths points we do get in the paint is a result of perimeter guys driving to the rim. If we had a consistent low post option, our offense would be better. But we live and die by the jumpshot.
Title: Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
Post by: Smutzy#9 on January 25, 2013, 05:56:26 AM
Just remember as well that before this year the previous 2 years pretty sure we were like almost dead last in field goal attempts but always shot a decent percentage thus converted more.

Then made up for it more on the defensive end which isnt quite showing this year
Title: Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
Post by: BballTim on January 25, 2013, 06:50:35 AM
It seems to me that a common assumption is that point guards who rack up a lot of assists are generating offense for their team.  In other words, a point guard who generates a lot of assists is usually running an efficient, productive offense.  Seems like it ought to work that way, at least.

But the past few seasons for the Celtics have refuted that notion.  How is it that Rondo piles on the assists, yet the Celtics have one of the worst offenses in the league?


  It's fairly common knowledge that our abysmal offensive rebounding is the biggest drag on our offensive efficiency. If we were an average offensive rebounding team we'd be an above average offense.
Title: Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
Post by: PhoSita on January 25, 2013, 09:13:13 AM
It seems to me that a common assumption is that point guards who rack up a lot of assists are generating offense for their team.  In other words, a point guard who generates a lot of assists is usually running an efficient, productive offense.  Seems like it ought to work that way, at least.

But the past few seasons for the Celtics have refuted that notion.  How is it that Rondo piles on the assists, yet the Celtics have one of the worst offenses in the league?


  It's fairly common knowledge that our abysmal offensive rebounding is the biggest drag on our offensive efficiency. If we were an average offensive rebounding team we'd be an above average offense.

So did all the teams on this list have better offensive rebounding?

I guess I'm just wondering why in the last twenty years of assist leaders, Rondo's teams stand out pretty glaringly as the weakest offensively.
Title: Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
Post by: mmmmm on January 25, 2013, 09:32:23 AM
It seems to me that a common assumption is that point guards who rack up a lot of assists are generating offense for their team.  In other words, a point guard who generates a lot of assists is usually running an efficient, productive offense.  Seems like it ought to work that way, at least.

But the past few seasons for the Celtics have refuted that notion.  How is it that Rondo piles on the assists, yet the Celtics have one of the worst offenses in the league?

I wanted to take a look at the offenses that other top assist-getters have run over the last 20 years or so.  Does leading the league in assists always correlate with having a high powered offense?


The following is a table (sorry for the rough formatting) listing the season assist-per-game leaders for the last 20 seasons, including this season.  Also listed are some of the key offensive stats for the teams the assist leaders played on, and how the teams ranked league-wide in each of those categories.


Seasons   APG Leader   APG   Team   Team ORtg   Team EFG%   Team PPG   Team Record
2012-2013   Rajon Rondo   11.1   BOS   102.1 (27th)   .493% (12th)   94.9 (23rd)   20-22 (17th)
2011-2012   Rajon Rondo   11.7   BOS   101.0 (26th)   .496% (10th)   91.8 (26th)   39-27 (10th)
2010-2011   Steve Nash   11.42   PHO   109.5 (9th)   .522 (5th)   105.0 (4th)   40-42 (17th)
2009-2010   Steve Nash   11.01   PHO   115.3 (1st)   .546 (1st)   110.2 (1st)   54-28 (5th)
2008-2009   Chris Paul   11.04   NOH   108.7 (12th)   .501 (13th)   95.8 (26th)   49-33 (10th)
2007-2008   Chris Paul   11.56   NOH   111.5 (5th)   .512 (6th)   100.9 (9th)   56-26 (4th)
2006-2007   Steve Nash   11.63   PHO   113.9 (1st)   .551 (1st)   110.2 (1st)   61-21 (2nd)
2005-2006   Steve Nash   10.46   PHO   111.5 (2nd)   .537 (1st)   108.4 (1st)   54-28 (4th)
2004-2005   Steve Nash   11.48   PHO   114.5 (1st)   .534 (1st)   110.4 (1st)   62-20 (1st)
2003-2004   Jason Kidd   9.22   NJN   100.8 (25th)   .471 (16th)   90.3 (22nd)   47-35 (9th)
2002-2003   Jason Kidd   8.9   NJN   103.8 (18th)   .468 (21st)   95.4 (14th)   49-33 (8th)
2001-2002   Andre Miller   10.9   CLE   104.6 (14th)   .477 (12th)   95.3 (16th)   29-53 (24th)
2000-2001   Jason Kidd   9.8   PHO   100.3 (22nd)   .460 (22nd)   94.0 (17th)   51-31 (8th)
1999-2000   Jason Kidd   10.1   PHO   104.6 (16th)   .491 (7th)   98.9 (12th)   53-29 (5th)
1998-1999   Jason Kidd   10.8   PHO   105.8 (3rd)   .481 (8th)   95.6 (3rd)   27-23 (14th)
1997-1998   Rod Strickland   10.54   WAS   105.2 (14th)   .476 (15th)   97.2 (8th)   42-40 (16th)
1996-1997   Mark Jackson   11.4   DEN / IND   104.5 (24th) / 105.8 (15th)   .486 (18th) / .490 (17th)   97.8 (13th) / 95.4 (20th)   21-61 (26th) / 39-43 (17th)
1995-1996   John Stockton   11.17   UTA   113.3 (2nd)   .517 (5th)   102.5 (10th)   55-27 (5th)
1994-1995   John Stockton   12.33   UTA   114.3 (4th)   .535 (2nd)   106.4 (5th)   60-22 (2nd)
1993-1994   John Stockton   12.57   UTA   108.6 (7th)   .490 (10th)   101.9 (10th)   53-29 (8th)
1992-1993   John Stockton   12.04   UTA   109.6 (6th)   .498 (11th)   106.2 (11th)   47-35 (10th)


The results aren't entirely surprising.  Steve Nash's teams are almost always near the top of the league in offensive categories.  Whatever he does in terms of running an offense, he does it well.  Even when he had crappy teammates his last two seasons in Phoenix, his teams were still in the top 3rd in the league offensively.

In fact, it looks as though the Celtics of this season and last are the weakest offenses among the twenty teams on the list -- the only team that comes close is the 2003-2004 Nets led by Jason Kidd.


I don't really have answers for this.  I'm not saying that Rondo is to blame for the Celtics' offensive struggles (though he must play some part).  But it has to be at least somewhat of an indictment on him that though he leads the league in assists, his teams are still very underwhelming offensively, right?

The answer is:  Shot location distribution.

The problem with our offensive efficiency is not the number of assists (assisted shots as a rule tend to be more efficient), but where we are taking shots from.

Over the last couple of seasons we have declined in the share of our shots that are taken 'at rim' and from beyond the 3PT arc.   Basically, a higher percentage of our shots are 2PT jumpers - which are the least efficent shot type for generating points.

If you categorize the former two categories ('At Rim' and 3PT) as 'high efficiency shots' then compare the share of our shots that are high efficiency to our resulting ORtg (points per 100 possessions) then you can see the fall-off pretty clearly:

(http://imageshack.us/a/img221/2986/celtichiefficiencyshott.png)

There is a more detailed discussion of this in this thread:

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=60222.msg1321413;topicseen

Basically, we don't have enough bigs who score down low and we don't take enough 3PT shots.
Title: Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
Post by: PhoSita on January 25, 2013, 10:03:32 AM

The answer is:  Shot location distribution.

The problem with our offensive efficiency is not the number of assists (assisted shots as a rule tend to be more efficient), but where we are taking shots from.

Over the last couple of seasons we have declined in the share of our shots that are taken 'at rim' and from beyond the 3PT arc.   Basically, a higher percentage of our shots are 2PT jumpers - which are the least efficent shot type for generating points.

If you categorize the former two categories ('At Rim' and 3PT) as 'high efficiency shots' then compare the share of our shots that are high efficiency to our resulting ORtg (points per 100 possessions) then you can see the fall-off pretty clearly:

(http://imageshack.us/a/img221/2986/celtichiefficiencyshott.png)

There is a more detailed discussion of this in this thread:

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=60222.msg1321413;topicseen

Basically, we don't have enough bigs who score down low and we don't take enough 3PT shots.

What you're saying makes sense, and it's something I've read about in the past.

I guess what I'm wondering is, does Rondo play a role in that one way or another?

Would Rondo be running one of the best offenses in the league if you gave him more bigs and more outside shooters?  Is it that Rondo has grown up in the league playing in an offensive "system" favoring slow, half-court play with a heavy emphasis on mid-range jumpshots and he needs to get more used to pushing the tempo and getting it to guys cutting to the rim or spotting up outside?

Would our offense be equally as bad if you switched Rondo for another prolific passer with a somewhat different skillset (e.g. a healthy Rubio or Steve Nash, or even somebody like Jrue Holiday or Greivis Vasquez) or do Rondo's weaknesses exacerbate the difficulties that this roster has in terms of taking and making shots from deep and in the paint?
Title: Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
Post by: pearljammer10 on January 25, 2013, 10:21:40 AM
No offensive rebounds = poor offensive rating.
Title: Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
Post by: nickagneta on January 25, 2013, 10:31:40 AM
I'm not saying that Rondo is to blame for the Celtics'

It sure seems from your follow up posts that what you are trying to do is blame the Celtics offensive problems on Rondo.

As long as you are the one bringing up stats looking for answers I say go research the following stats and see how they compared for all the teams listed:

Offensive rebounds per game
Offensive rebounding rate
Pace
Shot location distribution charts
Free throws attempted
Three point field goals attempted
The number of centers and forwards each team had that shot over 50%

Does anyone realize that the Celtics have exactly one player on their current roster who is a center or power forward who has a FG% above 50% and that is Chris Wilcox who barely plays? Do people realize that this team has been transformed into a mid range jump shooting team? Does anyone realize the Celtics philosophy of avoiding offensive rebounding is a massive offensive efficiency detractor?
Title: Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
Post by: BballTim on January 25, 2013, 10:48:21 AM
It seems to me that a common assumption is that point guards who rack up a lot of assists are generating offense for their team.  In other words, a point guard who generates a lot of assists is usually running an efficient, productive offense.  Seems like it ought to work that way, at least.

But the past few seasons for the Celtics have refuted that notion.  How is it that Rondo piles on the assists, yet the Celtics have one of the worst offenses in the league?


  It's fairly common knowledge that our abysmal offensive rebounding is the biggest drag on our offensive efficiency. If we were an average offensive rebounding team we'd be an above average offense.

So did all the teams on this list have better offensive rebounding?

I guess I'm just wondering why in the last twenty years of assist leaders, Rondo's teams stand out pretty glaringly as the weakest offensively.

  Considering we set a record in terms of lowest OReb% last year, I'd say that yes, they were all better offensive rebounding teams. Our eFG% for the last 2 years is close to the middle of the pack (slightly lower) so we're obviously able to make shots on par with the other teams. We just take fewer shots.

Title: Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
Post by: MBunge on January 25, 2013, 10:55:32 AM
I guess what I'm wondering is, does Rondo play a role in that one way or another?

The current Celtic offense was designed to essentially hide Rondo and Perk while evenly distributing shots among Pierce, KG and Ray.  It's not Rondo's fault that Doc has made little to no changes to that scheme in the last 4 years.

Mike
Title: Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
Post by: nickagneta on January 25, 2013, 10:58:29 AM
I guess what I'm wondering is, does Rondo play a role in that one way or another?

The current Celtic offense was designed to essentially hide Rondo and Perk while evenly distributing shots among Pierce, KG and Ray.  It's not Rondo's fault that Doc has made little to no changes to that scheme in the last 4 years.

Mike
Gotta agree with this
Title: Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
Post by: soap07 on January 25, 2013, 10:58:57 AM
Quote
  It's fairly common knowledge that our abysmal offensive rebounding is the biggest drag on our offensive efficiency. If we were an average offensive rebounding team we'd be an above average offense.

It is fairly common knowledge that our offensive rebounding contributes to the poor offense, along with Rondo's inefficiency and the lack of outside shooting overall.
Title: Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
Post by: soap07 on January 25, 2013, 11:00:08 AM
I guess what I'm wondering is, does Rondo play a role in that one way or another?

The current Celtic offense was designed to essentially hide Rondo and Perk while evenly distributing shots among Pierce, KG and Ray.  It's not Rondo's fault that Doc has made little to no changes to that scheme in the last 4 years.

Mike
Gotta agree with this

Hide Rondo? The guy has the ball in his hands 90 percent of the time. Most of KG's points come off open jumpers from Rondo's penetrations when he's not pounding the ball. This scheme is completely different than the one in 2008. Rondo was pretty much Mario Chalmers in the offense then, except without the 3 point shot.
Title: Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
Post by: PhoSita on January 25, 2013, 11:07:09 AM


It sure seems from your follow up posts that what you are trying to do is blame the Celtics offensive problems on Rondo.


That's far too reductive.

The fact that the Celtics suck offensively is not Rondo's fault.

Does that means he doesn't play a role in it?  I don't agree with that, either. 

What I'm trying to get at is there's a disconnect between a common sense notion that a pure passing point guard facilitates offensive production and the fact that Rondo racks up tons of assists even as the Celtics continue to suck offensively.

I accept that the Celtics are a bad rebounding team and that obviously plays a role.  But it seems clear that as far as Rondo and the Celtics are concerned, assists do not correlate with efficient offensive production in a clear or direct way. 

My instinct is that Rondo's inability to shoot from outside and reluctance to score plays a role in this, and he'll probably not ever be able to run a high powered offense like Nash or Stockton.  But maybe that's wrong.  Maybe the Celtics would be just as terrible, or worse, with a point guard who gets fewer assists but scores / shoots more (e.g. Jrue Holiday).  I'm skeptical about that, though.
Title: Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
Post by: PhoSita on January 25, 2013, 11:15:27 AM
I guess what I'm wondering is, does Rondo play a role in that one way or another?

The current Celtic offense was designed to essentially hide Rondo and Perk while evenly distributing shots among Pierce, KG and Ray.  It's not Rondo's fault that Doc has made little to no changes to that scheme in the last 4 years.

Mike
Gotta agree with this

Hide Rondo? The guy has the ball in his hands 90 percent of the time. Most of KG's points come off open jumpers from Rondo's penetrations when he's not pounding the ball. This scheme is completely different than the one in 2008. Rondo was pretty much Mario Chalmers in the offense then, except without the 3 point shot.

Rondo's role has changed for sure, but I agree with MBunge in the sense that I think the priorities of the offense are still essentially the same even though the makeup of the team has changed drastically.
Title: Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
Post by: MBunge on January 25, 2013, 11:20:58 AM
I guess what I'm wondering is, does Rondo play a role in that one way or another?

The current Celtic offense was designed to essentially hide Rondo and Perk while evenly distributing shots among Pierce, KG and Ray.  It's not Rondo's fault that Doc has made little to no changes to that scheme in the last 4 years.

Mike
Gotta agree with this

Hide Rondo? The guy has the ball in his hands 90 percent of the time.

Then where was the play for him at the end of the game instead of two plays for Pierce?  Rondo averaged 10.6 points the championship year.  He's scoring 13.7 points this year.  His assists have skyrocketed, but does it make any sense for Rondo to be scoring just 3.1 points per game more than he did his second year in the league?  With this team?  With Ray gone?

Doc runs the offense almost entirely through Rondo now, but it's still an offense designed around getting Pierce, KG and Ray shots and Ray's not around any more.

Mike
Title: Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
Post by: BballTim on January 25, 2013, 11:40:35 AM
Quote
  It's fairly common knowledge that our abysmal offensive rebounding is the biggest drag on our offensive efficiency. If we were an average offensive rebounding team we'd be an above average offense.

It is fairly common knowledge that our offensive rebounding contributes to the poor offense, along with Rondo's inefficiency and the lack of outside shooting overall.

   Common knowledge? Yes. Current knowledge? Not so much. Rondo's efficiency is fairly close to average for a pg.
Title: Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
Post by: mmmmm on January 25, 2013, 12:59:03 PM


What you're saying makes sense, and it's something I've read about in the past.

I guess what I'm wondering is, does Rondo play a role in that one way or another?

Would Rondo be running one of the best offenses in the league if you gave him more bigs and more outside shooters?

Given how, in the fall of 2010, when we had Shaq and Jermaine and Semih as our Center rotation, well, yeah!

That team, during that fall before all the injuries took the wheels off, had to be one of the most dominant starting lineups I have seen in years.

Also, when we have had a healthy Chris Wilcox, our offense is pretty [dang] efficient.

Is it that Rondo has grown up in the league playing in an offensive "system" favoring slow, half-court play with a heavy emphasis on mid-range jumpshots and he needs to get more used to pushing the tempo and getting it to guys cutting to the rim or spotting up outside?

Would our offense be equally as bad if you switched Rondo for another prolific passer with a somewhat different skillset (e.g. a healthy Rubio or Steve Nash, or even somebody like Jrue Holiday or Greivis Vasquez) or do Rondo's weaknesses exacerbate the difficulties that this roster has in terms of taking and making shots from deep and in the paint?

Its hard to say.   I do know that there have been lots of studies that show pretty compellingly that assisted shots are much more efficient at generating points.   Thus, if you swap out Rondo, whether the resulting team is more or less efficient (with no other changes) depends on what the overall team assisted shot rate ends up.  Just because a given PG passes less, doesn't mean the team's passing rate declines, as he may now be a recipient of assists.

But the bigger effect is still going to be the distribution of shot locations.  That's overwhelmingly the most important factor.

I don't think the flaws in our offense are due to Rondo at all.   I think they are very simply an obvious shortcoming in our front court personnel.

Think about it:  We are missing two big men that we were supposed to have when the season started:  Darko and for the most part Wilcox.   And we haven't replaced them.

Wilcox, in particular, affects our shot location profile because while he has his shortcomings, the one thing he does well is score close to the basket at a high rate of efficiency.  If we could just get him back on the floor for 15-20 minutes a game, that would make a big difference.
Title: Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
Post by: BballTim on January 25, 2013, 02:07:30 PM


It sure seems from your follow up posts that what you are trying to do is blame the Celtics offensive problems on Rondo.


That's far too reductive.

The fact that the Celtics suck offensively is not Rondo's fault.

Does that means he doesn't play a role in it?  I don't agree with that, either. 

What I'm trying to get at is there's a disconnect between a common sense notion that a pure passing point guard facilitates offensive production and the fact that Rondo racks up tons of assists even as the Celtics continue to suck offensively.

I accept that the Celtics are a bad rebounding team and that obviously plays a role.  But it seems clear that as far as Rondo and the Celtics are concerned, assists do not correlate with efficient offensive production in a clear or direct way. 

My instinct is that Rondo's inability to shoot from outside and reluctance to score plays a role in this, and he'll probably not ever be able to run a high powered offense like Nash or Stockton.  But maybe that's wrong.  Maybe the Celtics would be just as terrible, or worse, with a point guard who gets fewer assists but scores / shoots more (e.g. Jrue Holiday).  I'm skeptical about that, though.

  Rondo's already shown that he can run a high powered offense. We had one going in 2010-2011 before he started with the plantar fascitis. He was putting up more assists at the start of the season than anyone ever has and the Celts were playing like a top 5 offensive team.
Title: Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
Post by: soap07 on January 25, 2013, 02:36:44 PM
Quote
Rondo's efficiency is fairly close to average for a pg.

Great, I'm glad that we have a franchise point guard that is fairly close to average for a point guard, while almost every other top point guard has better efficiency numbers.

Quote
Then where was the play for him at the end of the game instead of two plays for Pierce?  Rondo averaged 10.6 points the championship year.  He's scoring 13.7 points this year.  His assists have skyrocketed, but does it make any sense for Rondo to be scoring just 3.1 points per game more than he did his second year in the league?  With this team?  With Ray gone?

A. The entire of the offense is not summed by by the last minute of the game.

B. Rondo has had plays called for him at the end of the game multiple times this year. Does anyone remember the national TV game that went into overtime? I'm forgetting the team....but that's one instance.
Title: Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
Post by: BballTim on January 25, 2013, 02:40:42 PM
Quote
Rondo's efficiency is fairly close to average for a pg.

Great, I'm glad that we have a franchise point guard that is fairly close to average for a point guard, while almost every other top point guard has better efficiency numbers.


  I guess it's a good thing he's leading the league in assists then, it turns out that adds to our efficiency as well.
Title: Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
Post by: Casperian on January 25, 2013, 03:13:32 PM
Thatīs because they donīt correlate, or better, only minimal and indirectly. Having a high assist PG basically has nothing to do with offensive efficiency. From the way assist are counted, to the fact that there huge differences in "how" you create those assists, they are one of the least reliable mainstream stats.

Steve Nash wasnīt just leading the league in assists, he was also a dangerous shooter.

There was an article on the front page last year about a stat summit including several nba executives, which highlighted some of the flaws of this particular statistic quite tranparently.
Title: Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
Post by: soap07 on January 25, 2013, 03:26:29 PM
Quote
Rondo's efficiency is fairly close to average for a pg.

Great, I'm glad that we have a franchise point guard that is fairly close to average for a point guard, while almost every other top point guard has better efficiency numbers.


  I guess it's a good thing he's leading the league in assists then, it turns out that adds to our efficiency as well.


Point Guards with better PER's than Rondo: 18.5

Chris Paul - 26.12
Russell Westbrook - 23.08
Tony Parker - 22.95
Kyrie Irving - 22.30
Kyle Lowry - 21.56
Jose Calderon (!) - 19.99
Steph Curry - 19.85
Eric Bledsoe - 19.33
Kemba Walker - 19.23
Ramon Sessions - 19.03
Jrue Holliday - 18.90



Deron Williams (in a down year! and will likely overtake Rondo with the way he is playing now) - 18.3

Rondo, in spite of all his assists and rebounds, isn't even top 10 in PER among point guards. Among point guards. Some people will say PER is skewed towards scorers. There are guys on that list who are not scorers first (Calderon, Lowry, Holliday) who do a nice job distributing the ball. Chris Paul is certainly not a score first point guard.

Fine, if you don't like PER, I bet if you run the same numbers for Win Shares/48, you'd get a similar list. It's great that Rondo gets assists but it's not a stretch to say that the list would be similar.

His assists add to our efficiency - but his inability to shoot and score efficiently detract from it, just as our offensive rebounding, turnovers and inability to shoot does.

If you're a defense, and you know the C's can't from the outside and that they have no inside presence, it makes the C's very guard able.
Title: Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
Post by: Fafnir on January 25, 2013, 03:39:07 PM
Quote
Rondo's efficiency is fairly close to average for a pg.

Great, I'm glad that we have a franchise point guard that is fairly close to average for a point guard, while almost every other top point guard has better efficiency numbers.


  I guess it's a good thing he's leading the league in assists then, it turns out that adds to our efficiency as well.


Point Guards with better PER's than Rondo: 18.5

Chris Paul - 26.12
Russell Westbrook - 23.08
Tony Parker - 22.95
Kyrie Irving - 22.30
Kyle Lowry - 21.56
Jose Calderon (!) - 19.99
Steph Curry - 19.85
Eric Bledsoe - 19.33
Kemba Walker - 19.23
Ramon Sessions - 19.03
Jrue Holliday - 18.90



Deron Williams (in a down year! and will likely overtake Rondo with the way he is playing now) - 18.3

Rondo, in spite of all his assists and rebounds, isn't even top 10 in PER among point guards. Among point guards. Some people will say PER is skewed towards scorers. There are guys on that list who are not scorers first (Calderon, Lowry, Holliday) who do a nice job distributing the ball. Chris Paul is certainly not a score first point guard.

Fine, if you don't like PER, I bet if you run the same numbers for Win Shares/48, you'd get a similar list. It's great that Rondo gets assists but it's not a stretch to say that the list would be similar.

His assists add to our efficiency - but his inability to shoot and score efficiently detract from it, just as our offensive rebounding, turnovers and inability to shoot does.

If you're a defense, and you know the C's can't from the outside and that they have no inside presence, it makes the C's very guard able.
He's 42nd among guards for OWS for this season. He's also 42nd among guards for usage. Which is one of the big reasons PER rates him so poorly, same for NBA efficiency.

OWS is all about scoring efficiency too, though I'm not sure if it weights as heavily towards getting shots up to determine value. (I doubt it)
Title: Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
Post by: BballTim on January 25, 2013, 03:57:10 PM
Thatīs because they donīt correlate, or better, only minimal and indirectly. Having a high assist PG basically has nothing to do with offensive efficiency. From the way assist are counted, to the fact that there huge differences in "how" you create those assists, they are one of the least reliable mainstream stats.

Steve Nash wasnīt just leading the league in assists, he was also a dangerous shooter.

There was an article on the front page last year about a stat summit including several nba executives, which highlighted some of the flaws of this particular statistic quite tranparently.

  I posted this elsewhere recently, but last march some Wizards fan felt that Wall was losing a lot of assist opportunities because the Wizards were such poor shooters. They looked (on the synergy sports website) at all of the passes Wall made that led to a scoring chance (which would end in a basket, miss or turnover) and compared that to all other turnovers. Wall's passes led to a (roughly, from memory) 44% scoring rate, up from 35% on all other scoring opportunities. (possessions that ended in free throws weren't included in the study fwiw). That 9% increase was just over the league average calculated at 82games of an 8% increase.

 For comparison they also looked at Rondo. Passes from Rondo led to scores about 56% of the time compared to about 35% (same as the Wizards btw) on all other scoring opportunities. That was more than double Wall's increase and 2.5 times the league average.
Title: Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
Post by: BballTim on January 25, 2013, 04:10:41 PM
Quote
Rondo's efficiency is fairly close to average for a pg.

Great, I'm glad that we have a franchise point guard that is fairly close to average for a point guard, while almost every other top point guard has better efficiency numbers.


  I guess it's a good thing he's leading the league in assists then, it turns out that adds to our efficiency as well.


Point Guards with better PER's than Rondo: 18.5

Chris Paul - 26.12
Russell Westbrook - 23.08
Tony Parker - 22.95
Kyrie Irving - 22.30
Kyle Lowry - 21.56
Jose Calderon (!) - 19.99
Steph Curry - 19.85
Eric Bledsoe - 19.33
Kemba Walker - 19.23
Ramon Sessions - 19.03
Jrue Holliday - 18.90



Deron Williams (in a down year! and will likely overtake Rondo with the way he is playing now) - 18.3

Rondo, in spite of all his assists and rebounds, isn't even top 10 in PER among point guards. Among point guards. Some people will say PER is skewed towards scorers. There are guys on that list who are not scorers first (Calderon, Lowry, Holliday) who do a nice job distributing the ball. Chris Paul is certainly not a score first point guard.

Fine, if you don't like PER, I bet if you run the same numbers for Win Shares/48, you'd get a similar list. It's great that Rondo gets assists but it's not a stretch to say that the list would be similar.

His assists add to our efficiency - but his inability to shoot and score efficiently detract from it, just as our offensive rebounding, turnovers and inability to shoot does.

If you're a defense, and you know the C's can't from the outside and that they have no inside presence, it makes the C's very guard able.

  Notice I said "our" efficiency, not "his" efficiency. And one could argue that the team's no more guardable than they were in 2008 when they had 3 HOFers still in their primes.
Title: Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
Post by: MBunge on January 25, 2013, 04:28:50 PM
Quote
Rondo's efficiency is fairly close to average for a pg.

Great, I'm glad that we have a franchise point guard that is fairly close to average for a point guard, while almost every other top point guard has better efficiency numbers.

Quote
Then where was the play for him at the end of the game instead of two plays for Pierce?  Rondo averaged 10.6 points the championship year.  He's scoring 13.7 points this year.  His assists have skyrocketed, but does it make any sense for Rondo to be scoring just 3.1 points per game more than he did his second year in the league?  With this team?  With Ray gone?

A. The entire of the offense is not summed by by the last minute of the game.

B. Rondo has had plays called for him at the end of the game multiple times this year. Does anyone remember the national TV game that went into overtime? I'm forgetting the team....but that's one instance.

Again, Rondo is scoring just 3.1 points per game more this year than he did in the championship year.  Does that make any sense, given his development and the fact that Ray is gone?  Last season, Rondo averaged 10.8 shots a game and Ray averaged 10.7 shots a game.  With Ray gone, Rondo is getting just 1.3 more shots a game this year.  Does that make any sense?

Mike
Title: Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
Post by: MBunge on January 25, 2013, 04:41:01 PM
And just for comparison, Rondo is getting 12.1 shots a game this year.  Jarrett Jack in Golden State is getting 10 shots a game.

Mike
Title: Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
Post by: mmmmm on January 25, 2013, 05:31:53 PM
Quote
Rondo's efficiency is fairly close to average for a pg.

Great, I'm glad that we have a franchise point guard that is fairly close to average for a point guard, while almost every other top point guard has better efficiency numbers.

Quote
Then where was the play for him at the end of the game instead of two plays for Pierce?  Rondo averaged 10.6 points the championship year.  He's scoring 13.7 points this year.  His assists have skyrocketed, but does it make any sense for Rondo to be scoring just 3.1 points per game more than he did his second year in the league?  With this team?  With Ray gone?

A. The entire of the offense is not summed by by the last minute of the game.

B. Rondo has had plays called for him at the end of the game multiple times this year. Does anyone remember the national TV game that went into overtime? I'm forgetting the team....but that's one instance.

Again, Rondo is scoring just 3.1 points per game more this year than he did in the championship year.  Does that make any sense, given his development and the fact that Ray is gone?  Last season, Rondo averaged 10.8 shots a game and Ray averaged 10.7 shots a game.  With Ray gone, Rondo is getting just 1.3 more shots a game this year.  Does that make any sense?

Mike

Actually, yeah, it does.  He's trying to feed all the other 'scorers' that we've brought in to replace Ray's touches.  The fact that some of them can't seem to shoot worth beans at the moment is probably robbing him of an extra assist or two per game.
Title: Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
Post by: PhoSita on January 25, 2013, 06:47:21 PM


It sure seems from your follow up posts that what you are trying to do is blame the Celtics offensive problems on Rondo.


That's far too reductive.

The fact that the Celtics suck offensively is not Rondo's fault.

Does that means he doesn't play a role in it?  I don't agree with that, either. 

What I'm trying to get at is there's a disconnect between a common sense notion that a pure passing point guard facilitates offensive production and the fact that Rondo racks up tons of assists even as the Celtics continue to suck offensively.

I accept that the Celtics are a bad rebounding team and that obviously plays a role.  But it seems clear that as far as Rondo and the Celtics are concerned, assists do not correlate with efficient offensive production in a clear or direct way. 

My instinct is that Rondo's inability to shoot from outside and reluctance to score plays a role in this, and he'll probably not ever be able to run a high powered offense like Nash or Stockton.  But maybe that's wrong.  Maybe the Celtics would be just as terrible, or worse, with a point guard who gets fewer assists but scores / shoots more (e.g. Jrue Holiday).  I'm skeptical about that, though.

  Rondo's already shown that he can run a high powered offense. We had one going in 2010-2011 before he started with the plantar fascitis. He was putting up more assists at the start of the season than anyone ever has and the Celts were playing like a top 5 offensive team.


That's a fair point, the team did look pretty great during that early stretch of the season.

I guess the question is if Rondo needs that level of talent around him (that team was STACKED with a healthy Shaq)to run a high powered offense, or if he just needs a more balanced set of options (Shaq's low post presence really was the missing piece for the team -- we've missed him ever since).
Title: Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
Post by: Casperian on January 26, 2013, 12:13:06 AM
Thatīs because they donīt correlate, or better, only minimal and indirectly. Having a high assist PG basically has nothing to do with offensive efficiency. From the way assist are counted, to the fact that there huge differences in "how" you create those assists, they are one of the least reliable mainstream stats.

Steve Nash wasnīt just leading the league in assists, he was also a dangerous shooter.

There was an article on the front page last year about a stat summit including several nba executives, which highlighted some of the flaws of this particular statistic quite tranparently.

  I posted this elsewhere recently, but last march some Wizards fan felt that Wall was losing a lot of assist opportunities because the Wizards were such poor shooters. They looked (on the synergy sports website) at all of the passes Wall made that led to a scoring chance (which would end in a basket, miss or turnover) and compared that to all other turnovers. Wall's passes led to a (roughly, from memory) 44% scoring rate, up from 35% on all other scoring opportunities. (possessions that ended in free throws weren't included in the study fwiw). That 9% increase was just over the league average calculated at 82games of an 8% increase.

 For comparison they also looked at Rondo. Passes from Rondo led to scores about 56% of the time compared to about 35% (same as the Wizards btw) on all other scoring opportunities. That was more than double Wall's increase and 2.5 times the league average.

Iīm sorry, I think Iīm unable to follow, what exactly are you trying to say? That somebody whose job it is to create higher scoring opportunities does exactly that? What does that have to do with my post? How does this stat prove a correlation between offensive efficiency and a PG with high assists numbers? Unless you want to argue that Rondo is pretty good at this specific trait, which is a completely different ballgame.
Title: Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
Post by: BballTim on January 26, 2013, 10:29:24 AM
Thatīs because they donīt correlate, or better, only minimal and indirectly. Having a high assist PG basically has nothing to do with offensive efficiency. From the way assist are counted, to the fact that there huge differences in "how" you create those assists, they are one of the least reliable mainstream stats.

Steve Nash wasnīt just leading the league in assists, he was also a dangerous shooter.

There was an article on the front page last year about a stat summit including several nba executives, which highlighted some of the flaws of this particular statistic quite tranparently.

  I posted this elsewhere recently, but last march some Wizards fan felt that Wall was losing a lot of assist opportunities because the Wizards were such poor shooters. They looked (on the synergy sports website) at all of the passes Wall made that led to a scoring chance (which would end in a basket, miss or turnover) and compared that to all other turnovers. Wall's passes led to a (roughly, from memory) 44% scoring rate, up from 35% on all other scoring opportunities. (possessions that ended in free throws weren't included in the study fwiw). That 9% increase was just over the league average calculated at 82games of an 8% increase.

 For comparison they also looked at Rondo. Passes from Rondo led to scores about 56% of the time compared to about 35% (same as the Wizards btw) on all other scoring opportunities. That was more than double Wall's increase and 2.5 times the league average.

Iīm sorry, I think Iīm unable to follow, what exactly are you trying to say? That somebody whose job it is to create higher scoring opportunities does exactly that? What does that have to do with my post? How does this stat prove a correlation between offensive efficiency and a PG with high assists numbers? Unless you want to argue that Rondo is pretty good at this specific trait, which is a completely different ballgame.

  Sorry, I probably shouldn't have quoted your post in mine. Not exactly sure why I did.
Title: Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
Post by: tonyto3690 on January 26, 2013, 11:27:31 AM
All those numbers are telling me is that teams that push the break have more success.  Teams that are slow, lethargic, and walk the ball up and let defenses set their defense every possession have trouble scoring reliably and have less bulk opportunities to score.

Rondo has Bass, Green, Sullinger, Lee, Bradley.  The whole "HE HAS NO ONE TO RUN WITH" excuse is old and pretty stupid.

Rondo doesn't run because that requires too much effort and he doesn't give a **** until it's the playoffs or vs Miami or NY.
Title: Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
Post by: nickagneta on January 26, 2013, 05:28:28 PM
All those numbers are telling me is that teams that push the break have more success.  Teams that are slow, lethargic, and walk the ball up and let defenses set their defense every possession have trouble scoring reliably and have less bulk opportunities to score.

Rondo has Bass, Green, Sullinger, Lee, Bradley.  The whole "HE HAS NO ONE TO RUN WITH" excuse is old and pretty stupid.

Rondo doesn't run because that requires too much effort and he doesn't give a **** until it's the playoffs or vs Miami or NY.
Brooklyn has the slowest pace in the league this year. They hardly ever run the ball. They have a decently efficient offense.

Running versus half court has nothing to do success or efficiency. Celtics have been a half court team since 2008 and have been to 2 Finals and 3 ECFs in 5 years. The Lakers have been a half court team since 2008. They have been to 3 Finals winning 2 since then.