CelticsStrong
Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: vgulab on January 10, 2013, 12:20:32 PM
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I was looking in the +/- stats and realize something interesting, see your self...
best 5 player combination for Celtics
K.Garnett, J.Terry, J.Green, C.Lee, J.Sullinger +42 60min
best 4 player combination
K.Garnett, J.Green, C.Lee, J.Sullinger +74 159min
best 3 player combination
K.Garnett, C.Lee, J.Sullinger +81 217min
best 2 player combination
K.Garnett, J.Sullinger +101 283min
best 1 player
J.Sullinger +68 670min
So J.Sullinger is in all best combinations. Our best +/- player and when KG and Sully are together they are +101 and second best is +55. This is another pointer how good Sully is and he is getting better every day. Sullinger and Bradley my favorite Celtics, after KG ofcourse. Go Celtics
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Interesting stats.
Sully has to be starting IMO.
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Sample size for +/- to be meaningful must be much larger than what we have right now.
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I'm not saying this stats are all that matters and that we can learn everything about our team but one thing is very clear to me. When KG and Sully are together on the court this team is much much better.
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Sample size for +/- to be meaningful must be much larger than what we have right now.
40 games isnt meaningful?
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Sample size for +/- to be meaningful must be much larger than what we have right now.
40 games isnt meaningful?
For +/- (and its better cousin adjusted +/-) your sample size of minutes needs to be pretty large, entire seasons and more large frequently. Thousands and thousands of minutes worth of data.
Otherwise its subject to so much noise to render it completely unreliable.
Unadjusted +/- is already unreliable no matter the sample size due to teammate and lineup effects.
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Interesting stats.
Sully has to be starting IMO.
But his best lineups are all with other bench guys (Lee, Green, Terry). Doesn't that mean we want to keep him with those guys, if Terry/Lee/Green play better with him on the court than without?
They're not mutually exclusive, of course, but I think the best role for Sully is off the bench, but at around 30mpg.
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Interesting stats.
Sully has to be starting IMO.
The only reason Sully isn't starting is because Bass currently needs to play as well, and by playing him with the starters, you can likely get more out of him, while Sully seems to be able to play well, regardless whether he is starting or coming off the bench.
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Interesting. Ive said all along that Sully should be starting alongside KG and that Bass fits better with the second unit. But Doc has seemed to find some sort of rotation that is working so I dont want to mess with what he's got going on.
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Interesting stats.
Sully has to be starting IMO.
The only reason Sully isn't starting is because Bass currently needs to play as well, and by playing him with the starters, you can likely get more out of him, while Sully seems to be able to play well, regardless whether he is starting or coming off the bench.
agreed
to me if bass can play good defense and rebound then he doesn't need to score 10 its
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Sample size for +/- to be meaningful must be much larger than what we have right now.
40 games isnt meaningful?
For +/- (and its better cousin adjusted +/-) your sample size of minutes needs to be pretty large, entire seasons and more large frequently. Thousands and thousands of minutes worth of data.
Otherwise its subject to so much noise to render it completely unreliable.
Unadjusted +/- is already unreliable no matter the sample size due to teammate and lineup effects.
While you're right in principle about small samples, it's unlikely that the randomness you're talking about is driving the overall pattern of all lineups, which shows that nearly every good lineup has Sully in it.
http://www.nba.com/statistics/plusminus/plusminus_sort.jsp?pcomb=5&season=22012&split=9&team=Celtics
(Think about the difference between the odds of getting heads on one coin flip, and getting heads on 17 or more out of 20.)
Also, I'm not sure what is the basis for your claim that you need "thousands" of minutes. The sample size necessary depends on the hypothesis one is testing.
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Interesting. Ive said all along that Sully should be starting alongside KG and that Bass fits better with the second unit. But Doc has seemed to find some sort of rotation that is working so I dont want to mess with what he's got going on.
Why, just to make sure we've got prolonged stretches of time with neither Garnett nor Sullinger on the floor? :P Not the greatest rotation plan.
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I agree with Faf that it's too small of a sample. However, it's definitely encouraging, and Sully should definitely be starting.
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Sample size for +/- to be meaningful must be much larger than what we have right now.
40 games isnt meaningful?
Those pairings are for 5 or so minutes a game. It's probably something like near the end of the 1st and 3rd quarter, where KG comes back in and they're playing against the other team's backups.
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Sample size for +/- to be meaningful must be much larger than what we have right now.
40 games isnt meaningful?
Those pairings are for 5 or so minutes a game. It's probably something like near the end of the 1st and 3rd quarter, where KG comes back in and they're playing against the other team's backups.
still the second best 2 player combination behind KG and JS is +55 and it's almost double less than +101 for KG+JS
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Interesting stats.
I could careless if he is starting if Doc gives min 30+ minutes like last night. It's also on Sully to stay out of foul trouble.
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I agree with Faf that it's too small of a sample. However, it's definitely encouraging, and Sully should definitely be starting.
I am also very encouraged by Sully's play as of late. I still question how high is ceiling can really be, but, other guys with similar build have been very successful.
As long as Bass is still on the team he needs to start, though.
Chris states it quite well.
The only reason Sully isn't starting is because Bass currently needs to play as well, and by playing him with the starters, you can likely get more out of him, while Sully seems to be able to play well, regardless whether he is starting or coming off the bench.
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Sullinger clearly has played well for us Boris, but that doesn't mean we should use a stat that has a miniscule sample size because it fits the eye test and other measures.
The direction I don't dispute.
The teammate, quality of opposition, and pure noise with +/- is huge. A single blowout win/loss can vastly alter your numbers even with 40 games in the season as well.
Also, I'm not sure what is the basis for your claim that you need "thousands" of minutes. The sample size necessary depends on the hypothesis one is testing.
I'm paraphrasing what I've read based on various stats articles of people who've created, critqued, or used +/- to evaluate individual player performance. IE rank just how good KG is, compared to Kevin Durant or LeBron James.
Its a very noisy measure.
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Unlike others, I do NOT think Sully should start, since these statistics were achieved by him coming off the BENCH.
Sully is our sub for KG at the 5 min mark. Works out well for us.
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what Sully lacks in speed and jumping abiliity, he seems to MORE than makeup with determination, work ethic, BB IQ, respect from coachs and peers.
He keeps his house in order, his head clear and doesn't often try to do more than he is capaible.
He stays "COOL" under pressure and listens to Doc. Tommy H. can't say enough good things about Sully steady -smart game he brings.
Someone , probally his family have been a huge impact on the maturity of this fellow.
Having players like Fab, AB , and Sully are priceless from a GM , COACH and team standpoint.
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I do not know how many times I say this for people to get it (I'm ALWAYS right, hehehe)... Sully HAS to come off the bench! Not b/c he is not good enough but b/c that is what THIS team needs. His rebounding, defense, smarts is what we NEED out of our bench big... Bass is good but he needs to start b/c he is at his best when is with KG/AB/RR... being with the starters hides Bass' weaknesses and highlights his strengths... he is a solid defender but was better last season, he does seem to be getting back to that b/c he is comfortable in the role he now has again. Notice how he doesn't do that fake/hesitation drive as much as he did earlier this season, he has started to go back to just shooting it like last season... starting let's Bass be just one of the guys in a lineup of greats, he doesn't have to try to lead or force anything, he can just pull up and knock down shots. Again, we NEED Sully off the bench, for this team and that's not a slight to him or Bass, because we need both of them in the role that makes the team better regardless of whether they deserve something or not. This is a team game, not a who deserves what game.
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Unlike others, I do NOT think Sully should start, since these statistics were achieved by him coming off the BENCH.
Sully is our sub for KG at the 5 min mark. Works out well for us.
Yeah I agree. Another thing you didn't mention is how much more effective Bass is when he's starting vs. when he's coming off the bench. Sure, Sully could be slightly better starting, but I'm not sure it's enough to offset how much worse Bass would be.
If it ain't broke...
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Sullinger clearly has played well for us Boris, but that doesn't mean we should use a stat that has a miniscule sample size because it fits the eye test and other measures.
The direction I don't dispute.
The teammate, quality of opposition, and pure noise with +/- is huge. A single blowout win/loss can vastly alter your numbers even with 40 games in the season as well.
Also, I'm not sure what is the basis for your claim that you need "thousands" of minutes. The sample size necessary depends on the hypothesis one is testing.
I'm paraphrasing what I've read based on various stats articles of people who've created, critqued, or used +/- to evaluate individual player performance. IE rank just how good KG is, compared to Kevin Durant or LeBron James.
Its a very noisy measure.
Actually, no. Whether it is 'noisy' depends, as Boris indicated, on what you are trying to use the information for.
As a measurement of what historically happened, it is actually not noisy at all. It is simply exactly what happened during those minutes. You can definitively say that so far, overall, the Celtics have been 'N points' better with Sully on the court over those 'M minutes'.
As a measure of how strong a lineup is relative to other lineups in the league and thus usable for predicting, say, playoff success (since +/- net ratings are extremely useful for that) - then you are absolutely correct. It is still too small a sample size and extremely noisy for THAT kind of usage.
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Unlike others, I do NOT think Sully should start, since these statistics were achieved by him coming off the BENCH.
Sully is our sub for KG at the 5 min mark. Works out well for us.
In terms of lineups with Sullinger in there, the team is by far most effective when KG and Sully are sharing the floor together. I think maximizing that makes sense.
http://www.82games.com/1213/12BOS11.HTM#5man
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Unlike others, I do NOT think Sully should start, since these statistics were achieved by him coming off the BENCH.
Sully is our sub for KG at the 5 min mark. Works out well for us.
In terms of lineups with Sullinger in there, the team is by far most effective when KG and Sully are sharing the floor together. I think maximizing that makes sense.
http://www.82games.com/1213/12BOS11.HTM#5man
I'm not sure about that. If we want our rebounding to avoid cratering we almost certainly want KG or Sullinger on the floor at all times. That's easier to achieve with Sullinger on the bench.
Not only that but Sullinger coming in as a sub makes it easier for Doc to manage match ups that could cause him issues.
I also worry about riding Sullinger for too many minutes, he's showing the potential to be a much better PF for this team than Bass. We don't want to wear him out, I'm thinking of Davis's last year here.
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Unlike others, I do NOT think Sully should start, since these statistics were achieved by him coming off the BENCH.
Sully is our sub for KG at the 5 min mark. Works out well for us.
In terms of lineups with Sullinger in there, the team is by far most effective when KG and Sully are sharing the floor together. I think maximizing that makes sense.
http://www.82games.com/1213/12BOS11.HTM#5man
I'm not sure about that. If we want our rebounding to avoid cratering we almost certainly want KG or Sullinger on the floor at all times. That's easier to achieve with Sullinger on the bench.
Not only that but Sullinger coming in as a sub makes it easier for Doc to manage match ups that could cause him issues.
I also worry about riding Sullinger for too many minutes, he's showing the potential to be a much better PF for this team than Bass. We don't want to wear him out, I'm thinking of Davis's last year here.
It's a small sample size, but the lineups featuring Sully next to anybody but KG have largely been pretty poor. Meanwhile, a lot of the lineups with KG and Sully have been dominant.
I'd rather have a dominating lineup that can run up the score and can compete against any opposing lineup rather than a more mediocre starting lineup and a mediocre bench.
I think it's the same argument as the one regarding moving Pierce to the bench. I'd rather maximize the strength of our primary unit, instead of weakening our biggest strength.
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As long as Sully is getting 25+ minutes I don't really care.
I do like the current rotation where Sully comes in when KG goes out in the first, then Sully finished the 1st, and is back out there with KG to start the second.
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Unlike others, I do NOT think Sully should start, since these statistics were achieved by him coming off the BENCH.
Sully is our sub for KG at the 5 min mark. Works out well for us.
In terms of lineups with Sullinger in there, the team is by far most effective when KG and Sully are sharing the floor together. I think maximizing that makes sense.
http://www.82games.com/1213/12BOS11.HTM#5man
I'm not sure about that. If we want our rebounding to avoid cratering we almost certainly want KG or Sullinger on the floor at all times. That's easier to achieve with Sullinger on the bench.
Not only that but Sullinger coming in as a sub makes it easier for Doc to manage match ups that could cause him issues.
I also worry about riding Sullinger for too many minutes, he's showing the potential to be a much better PF for this team than Bass. We don't want to wear him out, I'm thinking of Davis's last year here.
It's a small sample size, but the lineups featuring Sully next to anybody but KG have largely been pretty poor. Meanwhile, a lot of the lineups with KG and Sully have been dominant.
I'd rather have a dominating lineup that can run up the score and can compete against any opposing lineup rather than a more mediocre starting lineup and a mediocre bench.
I think it's the same argument as the one regarding moving Pierce to the bench. I'd rather maximize the strength of our primary unit, instead of weakening our biggest strength.
I don't think so because Sullinger isn't going to be a mid 30s minutes guy. He's too foul prone, likely not conditioned, and probably too raw for it.
Also as someone else said, KG/Sullinger is timed such that most teams are putting in a lot of bench players. I'm not sure its going to be that much better than Bass/KG against starters.
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Unlike others, I do NOT think Sully should start, since these statistics were achieved by him coming off the BENCH.
Sully is our sub for KG at the 5 min mark. Works out well for us.
In terms of lineups with Sullinger in there, the team is by far most effective when KG and Sully are sharing the floor together. I think maximizing that makes sense.
http://www.82games.com/1213/12BOS11.HTM#5man
I'm not sure about that. If we want our rebounding to avoid cratering we almost certainly want KG or Sullinger on the floor at all times. That's easier to achieve with Sullinger on the bench.
Not only that but Sullinger coming in as a sub makes it easier for Doc to manage match ups that could cause him issues.
I also worry about riding Sullinger for too many minutes, he's showing the potential to be a much better PF for this team than Bass. We don't want to wear him out, I'm thinking of Davis's last year here.
It's a small sample size, but the lineups featuring Sully next to anybody but KG have largely been pretty poor. Meanwhile, a lot of the lineups with KG and Sully have been dominant.
I'd rather have a dominating lineup that can run up the score and can compete against any opposing lineup rather than a more mediocre starting lineup and a mediocre bench.
I think it's the same argument as the one regarding moving Pierce to the bench. I'd rather maximize the strength of our primary unit, instead of weakening our biggest strength.
I totally agree with Roy on this. It is better to focus on maximizing your primary lineup. Having a strong bench is good. But not as important as the starting unit. This becomes more critical in the playoffs, when you shrink rotations and expand the minutes of your starters.
Wild card: I actually like Wilcox (when healthy) the best next to KG. That said, Wilcox & Bass make for a pretty decent pairing off the bench because Wilcox' interior offense and Bass' almost exclusive outside offense are complementary.
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Sullinger clearly has played well for us Boris, but that doesn't mean we should use a stat that has a miniscule sample size because it fits the eye test and other measures.
The direction I don't dispute.
The teammate, quality of opposition, and pure noise with +/- is huge. A single blowout win/loss can vastly alter your numbers even with 40 games in the season as well.
Also, I'm not sure what is the basis for your claim that you need "thousands" of minutes. The sample size necessary depends on the hypothesis one is testing.
I'm paraphrasing what I've read based on various stats articles of people who've created, critqued, or used +/- to evaluate individual player performance. IE rank just how good KG is, compared to Kevin Durant or LeBron James.
Its a very noisy measure.
I haven't run the numbers (though one could), but here is an example. If the question is "Is Sully's +/- higher when he starts vs. coming off the bench?" then the sample size is almost assuredly too small.
If the question is "Is Sully's +/- higher than that for Bass in 2012-2013 because of randomness, or Sully being a better player?" you might be able to say more. What you'd need is some measure of how much randomness (variance) there is typically in a particular player's +/- at this point in the season, using data from past years and perhaps comparable players.
Then you take the difference between Sully's +/- and Bass', and compare that difference to the variance one would expect to see even in the same player over time. In other words, how probable is it that they are identical quality players, but that randomness has made Sully look better?
There's some nuance to it of course (e.g., Sully's net +/- has to be the negative of Bass' if they are always subbing for each other). But that's the general idea.
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Unlike others, I do NOT think Sully should start, since these statistics were achieved by him coming off the BENCH.
Sully is our sub for KG at the 5 min mark. Works out well for us.
In terms of lineups with Sullinger in there, the team is by far most effective when KG and Sully are sharing the floor together. I think maximizing that makes sense.
http://www.82games.com/1213/12BOS11.HTM#5man
I'm not sure about that. If we want our rebounding to avoid cratering we almost certainly want KG or Sullinger on the floor at all times. That's easier to achieve with Sullinger on the bench.
Not only that but Sullinger coming in as a sub makes it easier for Doc to manage match ups that could cause him issues.
I also worry about riding Sullinger for too many minutes, he's showing the potential to be a much better PF for this team than Bass. We don't want to wear him out, I'm thinking of Davis's last year here.
Ah, so now we're worried about wearing a player out :P
But I agree, keep Sully in the bench. Start Wilcox, bench Bass... that would be my main plan, but not going to happen.