CelticsStrong
Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: LooseCannon on December 06, 2012, 04:25:23 PM
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There are a lot of trade ideas out there and a lot of posts about trades boil down to how much posters value Bradley and/or Sullinger.
So, this is a question about upside. Not who is better now. Not who has more trade value. Who is going to be the better player four years from now? Who will have a better 2016-2017?
I think that Bradley has more potential and is the more likely player to be a borderline All-Star player four years from now. (To be clear, I am not saying that he is more likely to be a borderline All-Star than not, just that he is more likely than Sullinger.) I am pretty sure other people disagree with that statement.
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I'd say Avery, just because he has one elite NBA-level skill. He's got a nice skill set offensively, but his defense will keep getting him minutes to hone his other skills.
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I have a problem answering this because they don't even play the same position. How are we supposed to compare them?
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Wow, good question. I vote for Sully.
I'm really high on Sullinger as I think he can become double-double threat every night. If he can drop some weight, only injury will hold him back imo.
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Bradley by a lot. His defense is already elite. His cutting is very good, outside shot solid, handle improved.
Both are undersized at their position. But Bradley has elite athleticism to help offset his height.
4 years from now I expect Bradley to be just below all star level.
Sullinger's ceiling is probably a below average starter, or good 7th man bench player. That is great for a big picked in the 20's.
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Bradley by a lot. His defense is already elite. His cutting is very good, outside shot solid, handle improved.
Both are undersized at their position. But Bradley has elite athleticism to help offset his height.
4 years from now I expect Bradley to be just below all star level.
Sullinger's ceiling is probably a below average starter, or good 7th man bench player. That is great for a big picked in the 20's.
Not saying I think Sully will be an all-star but I think you are undervaluing his ceiling. The guy is 20 with 1 month in the league and is almost already at the level you say is his ceiling.
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Good question im not sure. The reason id rather trade sully over ab tho is because i think AB can help us the most NOW. As far as four years from now.......could go either way but ill say AB. Simply because hes elite at something already and his defense will keep him on the floor if all else fails.
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I voted the last option :P
Seriously, I think Bradley will have a slight advantage because I think Sullinger will have more of an injury plagued career. But who knows? They both can have heart problems in a couple of years (shout out to Wilcox and Green)
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I imagine Sullinger growing up to be David Lee and I imagine Bradley growing up to be a short Doug Christie.
So about even, but they really are apples and oranges. I think both will, in their primes, be clear starters on good teams. I think Sullinger will make more money. Sullinger has the better shot at building a statistical all-star resume (i.e. offense+rebounds).
Over/unders:
1.5 all-star games between the two of them?
2.5 2nd-team all-defense for AB?
3.5 seasons averaging a double-double for JS?
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Bradley will likey get hurt and fall off because of his intensity , it may be his demise , I hope not. I love Bradley , next to KG he is my favorite Celtic.
Sully , is built like a truck. He plays steady eddie , low stress ball, and he is smart . He just bounces off people and they off him. NOT jumping will save his knees. He should be around forever.
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I have a problem answering this because they don't even play the same position. How are we supposed to compare them?
The same way you would make a comparison if you were asked who was better, Rajon Rondo or guy-playing-a-completely-different-position Brandon Bass.
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Over/unders:
1.5 all-star games between the two of them?
2.5 2nd-team all-defense for AB?
3.5 seasons averaging a double-double for JS?
I think it is a no-brainer to take the under on the first and the last. Probably wise to take the under on the middle one as well.
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Over/unders:
1.5 all-star games between the two of them?
2.5 2nd-team all-defense for AB?
3.5 seasons averaging a double-double for JS?
I think it is a no-brainer to take the under on the first and the last. Probably wise to take the under on the middle one as well.
I'd say under-over-under.
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The same way you would make a comparison if you were asked who was better, Rajon Rondo or guy-playing-a-completely-different-position Brandon Bass.
In that case I say AB, but only by a little.
The thing I like about the both of them is that their best skills don't rely on something that's going to seriously deteriorate with age. But I have to concede the argument that AB's best skill is elite-level, while Sully is just a good basketball player, and that edges the matchup for me.
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I'd say Avery, just because he has one elite NBA-level skill. He's got a nice skill set offensively, but his defense will keep getting him minutes to hone his other skills.
What makes his offensive skill set nice? He's athletic enough to finish at the rim and occasionally beat his man without the ball, but there's tons of D-Leaguers that can do that. On top of being undersized, his range and FT shooting has been questioned since college. Can you name many undersized guards that don't either have a great handle or shoot 3s at a high clip? He doesn't even have one area that he excels at (like Tony Allen in transition) he's just a well-rounded player with very average skills. He also has shown his favorite/most comfortable move is pulling up for the ~20 foot jump off the dribble (the least efficient shot in basketball).
That doesn't mean his speed/athleticism can't allow him to become an average or above average offensive player. Just if he does it won't be because he got himself there with his own skillset. It'll be great creators like Pierce and Rondo drawing defenders and finding him in the right place at the right time.
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What's the matter with Avery's range? He can hit the corner 3 at a good rate (because he worked on it), as shows on his shot chart (http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/plus/shooting.cgi?player_id=bradlav01&year_id=2012) for last season. Data says to avoid the straight-on three, but he's good on the right-hand side in particular. He was also nearly an 80% FT shooter last season, and you can't really ask for much more than that.
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Avery's played elite defense since he stepped on the floor in this league.
That means that a few years from now, barring some kind of bad injury, it's safe to say Avery will probably still be playing elite defense.
I'm not sure Jared has really distinguished himself as being "elite" at anything yet.
Based on that alone, I'd say Avery is much more of a sure thing.
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Bradley by a lot. His defense is already elite. His cutting is very good, outside shot solid, handle improved.
Both are undersized at their position. But Bradley has elite athleticism to help offset his height.
4 years from now I expect Bradley to be just below all star level.
Sullinger's ceiling is probably a below average starter, or good 7th man bench player. That is great for a big picked in the 20's.
Not saying I think Sully will be an all-star but I think you are undervaluing his ceiling. The guy is 20 with 1 month in the league and is almost already at the level you say is his ceiling.
Below average starter, or 7th man would make him a top 25-40 PF in the NBA. He's too undersized and grounded to make a leap to just below all star. Right now Sully is maybe the 60th or 70th best PF in the game. He makes Reggie Evans look like a star when the Celtics play Brooklyn.
I could see Bradley cracking the top 15 as a shooting guard, if he makes another leap he could be top 10. Bradley is already a top 5 man to man defender at the guard position(s).
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I'd say Avery, just because he has one elite NBA-level skill. He's got a nice skill set offensively, but his defense will keep getting him minutes to hone his other skills.
What makes his offensive skill set nice? He's athletic enough to finish at the rim and occasionally beat his man without the ball, but there's tons of D-Leaguers that can do that. On top of being undersized, his range and FT shooting has been questioned since college. Can you name many undersized guards that don't either have a great handle or shoot 3s at a high clip? He doesn't even have one area that he excels at (like Tony Allen in transition) he's just a well-rounded player with very average skills. He also has shown his favorite/most comfortable move is pulling up for the ~20 foot jump off the dribble (the least efficient shot in basketball).
That doesn't mean his speed/athleticism can't allow him to become an average or above average offensive player. Just if he does it won't be because he got himself there with his own skillset. It'll be great creators like Pierce and Rondo drawing defenders and finding him in the right place at the right time.
I think there continue to be some misconceptions about Bradley's baseline shooting skills floating around. Largely because of some small samples that have gotten exagerated attention. Specifically his free throw shooting in college and his shooting in general in his first year in the NBA. Let me lay out his full shooting resume:
| Year | Level | Team | Gms | FG | FGA | FT | FTA | 3PT | 3PTA | FG% | FT% | 3PT% |
| 2008/09 | H.S. | Findlay Prep | 21 | 234 | 421 | 73 | 96 | 27 | 70 | 55.9% | 76.0% | 38.6% |
| 2009/10 | NCAA | Texas | 34 | 159 | 368 | 36 | 66 | 42 | 112 | 43.2% | 54.5% | 37.5% |
| 2010/11 | NBADL | Maine | 9 | 57 | 126 | 30 | 35 | 10 | 27 | 45.2% | 85.7% | 37.0% |
| 2010/11 | NBA | Celtics | 31 | 23 | 67 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 34.3% | 50.0% | 00.0% |
| 2011/12 | NBA | Celtics | 64 | 200 | 402 | 62 | 78 | 22 | 54 | 49.8% | 79.5% | 40.7% |
| Overall | | | 159 | 673 | 1384 | 207 | 287 | 101 | 268 | 48.6% | 72.1% | 37.7% |
The ONLY stinkers in any of that are
a) At Texas, they had him playing exclusively on the perimeter, taking outside shots, hence he took barely 2 FTs per game and almost a 3rd of his shots were 3PT attempts. But his 3PT% was still solid and his overall FG% was decent, considering how it was dominated by 3PT shots.
b) His first year with the Celtics, he averaged just 5.2 minutes per game, often being put in during the last minutes of the first half - long enough to run out on the court and back. He averaged just over two shots per game!
Other than those two samples, his other shooting stats, in situations where he got both significant minutes and also a more robust role in the offense, his shooting percentages are excellent.
Coming out of high school, Bradley was rated in the top 5 (and often #1) of prospects not just because of his defense. He was a great scorer in high-school, scoring 20+ in almost half his games and could score from all over the floor.
Contrary to what you said, coming out of college, many scouts lauded his excellent shooting mechanics, especially on the catch-and-shoot and spot-up shooting.
The overall body of work suggests that over time, Bradley will likely be around a 75-80% free throw shooter, a 35-40% 3PT shooter and 45-50% overall FG%.
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I think they're both going to be great, but I'm gonna pick the less popular Sully for a few reasons...
1. It took AB a year and time with the claws before he developed enough to play adequately at the NBA level. I know he was really young coming in. Sully has played since day 1 and has played really really well. I'm not just talking points and boards. He's very smart. Great passer, takes charges, does a lot out there and has directly influenced games for us.
2. AB is either a below average point or undersized sg. At least at this point. Neither is great, at least not down the line.
3. Apparently Sully was playing sick against the Wolves. Still grabbed 7 boards in limited minutes. That's production. His rebounding is excellent as a rookie and thats big.
4. Since we're talking down the line here, AB has already had his share of injury concerns. His skill set requires a lot of athleticism and if that's affected his skill is going to decrease. Who knows where he'll be in a couple years (hopefully still helping us)
I may be wrong honestly, and you can argue with me on any of these points. I'm just impressed that Sully was able to come in here instantly and perform at this level. You can see him getting better every game, and it wouldn't surprise me if he starts averaging a double double or something like 9 and 8 by the end of the season. For a rookie on this team thats great. His bball iq is unbelievable and I think he's only going to go up from here.
Just for the record I am high on both of them
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Lol let me get my crystal ball.
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I think that AB's development was really hurt by missing training camp in his rookie year (due to injury), added to the fact that Doc was completely mis-using him as a point guard. Once they figured him out -- undersized SG, defensive stopper -- and gave him a role, I think that was huge. I feel like his rookie year was almost a waste.
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Bradley by a lot. His defense is already elite. His cutting is very good, outside shot solid, handle improved.
Both are undersized at their position. But Bradley has elite athleticism to help offset his height.
4 years from now I expect Bradley to be just below all star level.
Sullinger's ceiling is probably a below average starter, or good 7th man bench player. That is great for a big picked in the 20's.
Not saying I think Sully will be an all-star but I think you are undervaluing his ceiling. The guy is 20 with 1 month in the league and is almost already at the level you say is his ceiling.
Below average starter, or 7th man would make him a top 25-40 PF in the NBA. He's too undersized and grounded to make a leap to just below all star. Right now Sully is maybe the 60th or 70th best PF in the game. He makes Reggie Evans look like a star when the Celtics play Brooklyn.
I could see Bradley cracking the top 15 as a shooting guard, if he makes another leap he could be top 10. Bradley is already a top 5 man to man defender at the guard position(s).
Reggies Evans, in his what 12th year (?) as a one-trick pony veteran SHOULD look like a star rebounding against a 20 yo rookie. 25-40th best power forwards -- who? Big Baby? Brandon Bass? Carl Landry? Thadeus Young? You think that is Sully's ceiling? He's 20 and has played in 18 games. He's already averaging more points than Reggie Evans has in his career (I'd guess). Sully's stats are growing weekly. He may not be a top 10 PF, but his ceiling is higher than you give him credit for. I contend that he'll be at your stated ceiling by the end of his rookie year.
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Right now Sully is maybe the 60th or 70th best PF in the game. He makes Reggie Evans look like a star when the Celtics play Brooklyn.
Okay, this is just going too far.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/position/pf
Going on this list, I'd say Sully is at least Top 50, and maybe Top 40 considering the fact that he hasn't been given much chance to show how much he can really do compared to some other younger guys who are given a longer rope.
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I think there continue to be some misconceptions about Bradley's baseline shooting skills floating around. Largely because of some small samples that have gotten exagerated attention.
Ironically that's the story of Bradley's career. I don't remember the last time somebody on this team got so much hype from such a small sample. Tony Allen shot 39% from 3 on a similar number of attempts his first season. Avery shot decently from the college 3, but like I said he's willing to pass up the open 3 to step in for that shot. I remember him getting some attention for his shooting form, but there was also a lot of speculation that that was his range and he'd have trouble extending it (thus why Doc kept him in the corner).
His defense is unquestionable and I'm not discounting how well our team played during that small sample, but he's an almost completely unproven offensive player so far.
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Right now Sully is maybe the 60th or 70th best PF in the game. He makes Reggie Evans look like a star when the Celtics play Brooklyn.
Okay, this is just going too far.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/position/pf
Going on this list, I'd say Sully is at least Top 50, and maybe Top 40 considering the fact that he hasn't been given much chance to show how much he can really do compared to some other younger guys who are given a longer rope.
I'm not a numbers guy, but the fact that Sully is 21 in rebounding rate (and 17 in ORR) already shows you how good of a rebounder he will be. He might not ever be elite, but he will be an excellent rebounder for a long time. That skill, in addition to his well rounded offensive skill set and high basketball IQ gives him a very high ceiling in my eyes.
Avery has already proven to be an elite perimeter defender, but his offensive game is limited by his lack of range (I'm not sure how much I trust the 22 3-pointers he made last year) and ballhandling ability. I do not see any similar issues that will prevent Sullinger from becoming an offensive threat.
One could argue that Sully's lack of size and athleticism are similarly detrimental to his game, but I would disagree. Sullinger's shooting ability from outside (his range extends out to about a step in from AB's), soft touch around the basket and basketball IQ will allow him to thrive offensively. Granted, I'm talking about several years down the road, but we are talking about upside here.
I would put more money on Sully's ability to further develop the skills he already has than on AB's ability to develop ball-handling skills and NBA range.
For those reasons, Sully is the safer bet. However, I think AB's ceiling is higher. This is because his elite perimeter defense is ALREADY more of a game-changing force than Sully's rebounding ever will be. If AB can become a competent ballhandler, learn to think like a PG and knock down 3 balls he would be a very dangerous player.
Through my green-tinted goggles I'm fairly certain that all of those things will happen as soon as Avery gets back on the court, but forcing myself to think objectively, Sully has a better shot at reaching all-star status at some point in his career.
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Right now Sully is maybe the 60th or 70th best PF in the game. He makes Reggie Evans look like a star when the Celtics play Brooklyn.
Okay, this is just going too far.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/position/pf
Going on this list, I'd say Sully is at least Top 50, and maybe Top 40 considering the fact that he hasn't been given much chance to show how much he can really do compared to some other younger guys who are given a longer rope.
Ugh, I kinda hate arbitrary 'roll up' stats like PER - there are just so many flaws with the use of that stat.
Win Shares has its own flaws, but i find it generally more palatable, especially as a per-minute positive-productivity measure.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&per_minute_base=36&type=advanced&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=2013&year_max=2013&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=1&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&is_active=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=&c1stat=mp&c1comp=gt&c1val=100&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws_per_48
Based on that, the only two rookies who are rating higher than Sully so far are Andrew Davis and Andre Drummond.
The kid is not doing too bad.
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Bradley last year had more impact than Sully has this year. Bradley's D has won us games, I don't recall Sully winning us a game this year. He has contributed but Bradley's skill level on D is much more elite than Sully's rebounding.
I have a feeling neither will be C's too long and packaged for an asset. I hate to see it happen but the trade winds are blowing hard.
I think Bradley will have more impact because his D is elite, Sully's rebounding is goodf.