CelticsStrong
Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: BleedGreen1989 on November 01, 2012, 11:58:39 AM
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Once Bradley comes back the C's will have 5 quality guards. I can't see them all playing unless we go super small. Does Bradley start immidietly when he gets back?
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I still think that Barbosa will end up being the odd man out despite his great performance in the opener.
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We're going to have see who's healthy and who's performing when than happens. Right now, I think you'd have to say it's wide open.
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With a trade.
Probably not for Josh Smith.
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We've only seen one game, so it's hard to tell at this point.
It's funny how the guy nobody saw playing much, outperformed the other guards, except maybe Lee (and Rondo, obviously).
You just never know. If we're stinking it up, he may just slide back into that role, but we have to wait and see how Lee's performing.
I think Bradley'll get it back, later, if not sooner.
I think it'll get to the point, where our guard rotation will just depend on matchups and injuries, but Barbosa kind of has to be the odd man out, with all our other talent.
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If Bradley is 100% healthy, I think he should be in the starting lineup. Barbosa and Lee then fight it out for who is the 4th guard behind Terry.
Barbosa or Lee would then become expendable as someone who can be dealt for a role player to shore up other positions on the bench. Lee has a bigger salary, so he is the guy you trade if you want a big making more than the minimum.
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The guys who played in the Olympics looked a bit more sharp out of the gate. If Barbosa can play that way consistently off the bench...wow.
If Doc is still serious about defense (been fading since Thibs left), then in order of defensive ability it's a pretty clear pecking order:
Bradley
Lee
Barbosa
JET
But we can't really see JET not getting minutes, right? Offensively, it's nearly opposite:
JET
Barbosa
Lee
Bradley,
With Lee and Bradley being close, and perhaps JET and Barbosa being close in another tier.
It all comes down to Doc, so we're screwed. I'd guess all 5 will dress every game, and he'll have some plan that will go out the window due to fouls or the scoreboard.
One thing from the Miami game seemed to be that Doc was trying to match up with them, rather than "running our stuff" and relying on execution. It used to be that our talent forced the other team to match up with us. Perhaps we're deep, but flat. Going to need crazy execution, and I'm not sure a fast-paced game is going to produce wins.
So I think he'll mix-and-match, probably until something gels. We know Rondo/Bradley works, so to me, that starts, but I think Rondo/Lee is going to be pretty good as well.
If we're a real defensive team, which would be my call as coach, I'm looking at the top list and cross-checking with chemistry on both ends and figuring my 4-guard rotation that way.
It comes down to backup PG and how many minutes to play everyone. I like sticking around 30 for everyone as much as possible. So I divide up the 96 guard minutes this way:
Rondo/Lee/Bradley: 30 mpg ea.
Doesn't look so good for JET or Barbosa, does it? I like Barbosa better, but we're stuck with JET for longer...tough call.
With Bradley out, I might go Rondo/Lee 30 ea. and JET/Barbosa 18 ea. in Microwave roles.
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If the Celtics are winning in the 2nd half of games, I don't see Terry getting as much playing time. If the Celtics are trailing big, his playing time probably goes up.
It's going to take a while for this guard rotation to settle down, if it ever does.
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Hope Doc starts Barbosa, letting Lee and Terry play lesser minutes against starters and allowing them to create some chemistry. Barbosa is a strong guy, and can play the Bradley role for 20 minutes until Avery returns. Then there will be options. Barbosa can be effective in limited minutes, so you don't have to play him more than 10-12 a game to get an uber-Eddie House role player.
I think the Celtics will play some 3-guard rotations, allowing their new guards to shine and grow their trade value. You never know, but with Ainge every option will be explored.
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Thinking it over a bit while getting the woodstove going...
Lee/Bradley have quite a few similarities in their games.
And I like the way JET is able to penetrate off the screen with his quickness. Rondo as well seems able to get to the paint.
Rondo/JET
Bradley/Lee,
Althought perhaps Bradley/JET would be better on the floor together, and start Lee (who has better size at the 2)?
If Rondo/Lee is working when Bradley comes back, Doc should stick with it, right?
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Lee is the best two way player of the bunch. After that, I think it's a toss-up between Terry and Barbosa. I don't think it's a given that Bradley starts over any of those three. If he has trade value, I think it might make sense to include him in a package for a legit big.
If all these guys remain healthy, there's no sense having 4 shooting guards split 52 minutes in the playoffs. We should trade one as part of a huge package for a Josh Smith or Big Al type.
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Lee is the best two way player of the bunch. After that, I think it's a toss-up between Terry and Barbosa. I don't think it's a given that Bradley starts over any of those three. If he has trade value, I think it might make sense to include him in a package for a legit big.
If all these guys remain healthy, there's no sense having 4 shooting guards split 52 minutes in the playoffs. We should trade one as part of a huge package for a Josh Smith or Big Al type.
Here here. Bradley is our best defender, and also has the best trade value. If we can land a legit big in a package that will involve him it'll be a nice trade off.
While Lee, JET and Barbosa could not guard Wade as well as AB does, if he will net us a rim protector, I'd take it. No Big Al though. Not a fan of Josh Smith, but if he can protect the rim, sure.
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I see Barbosa as a change of pace guy. He is needed when the normal gameplan isn't working. He will not consistently do what he did in the first game.
I see Bradley coming off the bench while he gets in shape, and then starting when he can handle the minutes. He also needs to be able to get a shooting rhythm back after a prolonged period of not using his shoulders.
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PG Rondo 35m Terry 13m
SG Avery 30m Terry 12m Lee 6m
SF Pierce 32m Green 5m Lee 11m
PF Bass 25m Green 20m Sully 3m
C KG 32m Sully 16m
This is how I see the rotation on most nights with everyone healthy. The biggest variables will be big man match ups. Against bigger teams (Grizz, LA) Darko will get minutes and Sully will lose them.
Barring injuries I would have to expect some sort of mid season trade, to clear log jams.
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Lee is the best two way player of the bunch. After that, I think it's a toss-up between Terry and Barbosa. I don't think it's a given that Bradley starts over any of those three. If he has trade value, I think it might make sense to include him in a package for a legit big.
If all these guys remain healthy, there's no sense having 4 shooting guards split 52 minutes in the playoffs. We should trade one as part of a huge package for a Josh Smith or Big Al type.
AB displaced Ray as a starter - if he comes back healthy, I don't think he'll have too many problems winning a spot in the rotation.
Barbosa is by far the most likely to get bench duty, barring a trade.
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Lee is the best two way player of the bunch. After that, I think it's a toss-up between Terry and Barbosa. I don't think it's a given that Bradley starts over any of those three. If he has trade value, I think it might make sense to include him in a package for a legit big.
If all these guys remain healthy, there's no sense having 4 shooting guards split 52 minutes in the playoffs. We should trade one as part of a huge package for a Josh Smith or Big Al type.
AB displaced Ray as a starter - if he comes back healthy, I don't think he'll have too many problems winning a spot in the rotation.
Barbosa is by far the most likely to get bench duty, barring a trade.
to be fair though Allen wasn't healthy and was really beat up
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Lee is the best two way player of the bunch. After that, I think it's a toss-up between Terry and Barbosa. I don't think it's a given that Bradley starts over any of those three. If he has trade value, I think it might make sense to include him in a package for a legit big.
If all these guys remain healthy, there's no sense having 4 shooting guards split 52 minutes in the playoffs. We should trade one as part of a huge package for a Josh Smith or Big Al type.
AB displaced Ray as a starter - if he comes back healthy, I don't think he'll have too many problems winning a spot in the rotation.
Barbosa is by far the most likely to get bench duty, barring a trade.
to be fair though Allen wasn't healthy and was really beat up
Avery got the job because he was better than Ray Allen, not because Ray Allen was banged up. He brought more to the team playing alongside Rondo.
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Lee is the best two way player of the bunch. After that, I think it's a toss-up between Terry and Barbosa. I don't think it's a given that Bradley starts over any of those three. If he has trade value, I think it might make sense to include him in a package for a legit big.
If all these guys remain healthy, there's no sense having 4 shooting guards split 52 minutes in the playoffs. We should trade one as part of a huge package for a Josh Smith or Big Al type.
AB displaced Ray as a starter - if he comes back healthy, I don't think he'll have too many problems winning a spot in the rotation.
Barbosa is by far the most likely to get bench duty, barring a trade.
to be fair though Allen wasn't healthy and was really beat up
Avery got the job because he was better than Ray Allen, not because Ray Allen was banged up. He brought more to the team playing alongside Rondo.
At the moment I think Courtney Lee is better than Bradley. I hope I'm wrong, but I see Lee is a vastly superior scorer and probably on the same level defensively. I personally feel like Bradley's defense is overhyped. People are calling him the best defender in the league after what amounts to basically a month of aggressive play as a starter. He needs to do it for more than a month... a handful of games isn't enough of a sample size to see how he deals with larger guards. I think Lee is the better player. He's bigger, he's an excellent defender and he's a more reliable scorer. Bradley's young. He's coming off a huge season averaging 7 points and .7 steals. Maybe he's got huge potential... but maybe if his stock is high around the league we should flip him before he gets exposed.
Bradley had that one game (was it against Toronto?) where all the starters sat out. He impressed the heck out of me in that game creating his own shot. His defense is clearly very good (he's like a tiny Tony Allen). But one of my major theories about the NBA is that the element of surprise is huge. People point to that one game against Miami where Wade (who probably was caught off guard by the young unknown) was limited to 20 points (while Wade was injured, btw) as if it's the sign that Bradley can "shut down" Wade. But there was a regular season game against Atlanta where Joe JOhnson abused Bradley with his size. I'm just saying... I want to see whether Bradley can sustain that overly aggressive defense long-term. And all signs point to him being a streaky shooter. I'm not a Bradley hater... I'm just trying to temper my enthusiasm.
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Lee is the best two way player of the bunch. After that, I think it's a toss-up between Terry and Barbosa. I don't think it's a given that Bradley starts over any of those three. If he has trade value, I think it might make sense to include him in a package for a legit big.
If all these guys remain healthy, there's no sense having 4 shooting guards split 52 minutes in the playoffs. We should trade one as part of a huge package for a Josh Smith or Big Al type.
AB displaced Ray as a starter - if he comes back healthy, I don't think he'll have too many problems winning a spot in the rotation.
Barbosa is by far the most likely to get bench duty, barring a trade.
to be fair though Allen wasn't healthy and was really beat up
Avery got the job because he was better than Ray Allen, not because Ray Allen was banged up. He brought more to the team playing alongside Rondo.
At the moment I think Courtney Lee is better than Bradley. I hope I'm wrong, but I see Lee is a vastly superior scorer and probably on the same level defensively. I personally feel like Bradley's defense is overhyped. People are calling him the best defender in the league after what amounts to basically a month of aggressive play as a starter. He needs to do it for more than a month... a handful of games isn't enough of a sample size to see how he deals with larger guards. I think Lee is the better player. He's bigger, he's an excellent defender and he's a more reliable scorer. Bradley's young. He's coming off a huge season averaging 7 points and .7 steals. Maybe he's got huge potential... but maybe if his stock is high around the league we should flip him before he gets exposed.
Bradley had that one game (was it against Toronto?) where all the starters sat out. He impressed the heck out of me in that game creating his own shot. His defense is clearly very good (he's like a tiny Tony Allen). But one of my major theories about the NBA is that the element of surprise is huge. People point to that one game against Miami where Wade (who probably was caught off guard by the young unknown) was limited to 20 points (while Wade was injured, btw) as if it's the sign that Bradley can "shut down" Wade. But there was a regular season game against Atlanta where Joe JOhnson abused Bradley with his size. I'm just saying... I want to see whether Bradley can sustain that overly aggressive defense long-term. And all signs point to him being a streaky shooter. I'm not a Bradley hater... I'm just trying to temper my enthusiasm.
Hmm. Bradley coming off the bench as a combo guard ain't bad if you ask me. But I might look at what a Bradley/Bass combo could bring in trade (Milsap?).
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last 2 years bradley got to study under ray allen. Now he gets to study jason terry and his awesome moves. Perfect education for the natural defensive phenom bradley.
I want to see bradley get some situational or extended opportunities to be a selfish shoot first point guard, with sully and green and darko setting picks for bradley and crashing the boards, and terry/lee sitting open at the 3 pt line. Let bradley show what he's got. That superior quickness and speed works not just on defense, ya know.
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At the moment I think Courtney Lee is better than Bradley. I hope I'm wrong, but I see Lee is a vastly superior scorer and probably on the same level defensively.
While I agree that folks should tone down the hype on Bradley and wait to see how good of a player he is coming back from his surgery, I'm struggling to see from where you are drawing the conclusion that Lee "is a vastly superior scorer".
Bradley played 1368 minutes last year and averaged 12.7 points per 36 minutes. Yes, he averaged 16.5 per 36 in April (almost 14per for Mar/April combined), but let's include the whole season. His shooting percentages were 49.8%/40.7%/79.5%. He averaged 10.6 FGAs and 2.1 FTAs per 36 minutes.
Lee played 1757 minutes last year and averaged 13.5 points per 36 minutes. His shooting percentages were 43.3%/40.1%/82.6%. He averaged 11.9 FGA and 1.8 FTA per 36 minutes.
Lee's numbers last year were similar to his career numbers, which have been pretty rock steady.
I'm not going to argue that Bradley is or isn't a better scorer than Lee. But I see absolutely NO evidence that Lee is a "vastly superior scorer" than Bradley.
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Lee is the best two way player of the bunch. After that, I think it's a toss-up between Terry and Barbosa. I don't think it's a given that Bradley starts over any of those three. If he has trade value, I think it might make sense to include him in a package for a legit big.
If all these guys remain healthy, there's no sense having 4 shooting guards split 52 minutes in the playoffs. We should trade one as part of a huge package for a Josh Smith or Big Al type.
I don't think that Al Jefferson and Josh Smith are the same "type" at all. While I think Smith would be a good fit on the Celtics, I worry about giving up too much in a trade for a guy who is most likely going to command bigger bucks than we may be prepared to pay this off-season.
Also, if Danny is looking to move a guard, I think it makes more sense to move Lee as he probably has more value due to the size of his contract and his experience as a pro. This doesn't mean that I'm convinced that we need to make a move. Just saying that if we do, I'd rather trade Lee than Bradley.
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At the moment I think Courtney Lee is better than Bradley. I hope I'm wrong, but I see Lee is a vastly superior scorer and probably on the same level defensively.
While I agree that folks should tone down the hype on Bradley and wait to see how good of a player he is coming back from his surgery, I'm struggling to see from where you are drawing the conclusion that Lee "is a vastly superior scorer".
Bradley played 1368 minutes last year and averaged 12.7 points per 36 minutes. Yes, he averaged 16.5 per 36 in April (almost 14per for Mar/April combined), but let's include the whole season. His shooting percentages were 49.8%/40.7%/79.5%. He averaged 10.6 FGAs and 2.1 FTAs per 36 minutes.
Lee played 1757 minutes last year and averaged 13.5 points per 36 minutes. His shooting percentages were 43.3%/40.1%/82.6%. He averaged 11.9 FGA and 1.8 FTA per 36 minutes.
Lee's numbers last year were similar to his career numbers, which have been pretty rock steady.
I'm not going to argue that Bradley is or isn't a better scorer than Lee. But I see absolutely NO evidence that Lee is a "vastly superior scorer" than Bradley.
Lee is a more proven jump shooter, we have years of play to show that he can hit NBA 3s at a very good clip. Bradley has a much smaller sample size of accuracy from the three point line.
Bradley's biggest offensive value was all the high percentage looks he created with his cuts and running the floor though, Lee so far has provided similar hoops in the pre-season and first game.
If Bradley recaptures his level of play from last year he should leave only a few minutes for Lee, but he only played great for half a season so I'm very happy with Lee as an option.
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At the moment I think Courtney Lee is better than Bradley. I hope I'm wrong, but I see Lee is a vastly superior scorer and probably on the same level defensively.
While I agree that folks should tone down the hype on Bradley and wait to see how good of a player he is coming back from his surgery, I'm struggling to see from where you are drawing the conclusion that Lee "is a vastly superior scorer".
Bradley played 1368 minutes last year and averaged 12.7 points per 36 minutes. Yes, he averaged 16.5 per 36 in April (almost 14per for Mar/April combined), but let's include the whole season. His shooting percentages were 49.8%/40.7%/79.5%. He averaged 10.6 FGAs and 2.1 FTAs per 36 minutes.
Lee played 1757 minutes last year and averaged 13.5 points per 36 minutes. His shooting percentages were 43.3%/40.1%/82.6%. He averaged 11.9 FGA and 1.8 FTA per 36 minutes.
Lee's numbers last year were similar to his career numbers, which have been pretty rock steady.
I'm not going to argue that Bradley is or isn't a better scorer than Lee. But I see absolutely NO evidence that Lee is a "vastly superior scorer" than Bradley.
Agreed. LarBrd33 is downplaying Bradley's abilities far more than reasonable caution about small sample size would justify.
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I'm very impressed with C. Lee , he fits in nicely with the C's m becomming a fav or mine already. His best ball is ahead of him yet.
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At the moment I think Courtney Lee is better than Bradley. I hope I'm wrong, but I see Lee is a vastly superior scorer and probably on the same level defensively.
While I agree that folks should tone down the hype on Bradley and wait to see how good of a player he is coming back from his surgery, I'm struggling to see from where you are drawing the conclusion that Lee "is a vastly superior scorer".
Bradley played 1368 minutes last year and averaged 12.7 points per 36 minutes. Yes, he averaged 16.5 per 36 in April (almost 14per for Mar/April combined), but let's include the whole season. His shooting percentages were 49.8%/40.7%/79.5%. He averaged 10.6 FGAs and 2.1 FTAs per 36 minutes.
Lee played 1757 minutes last year and averaged 13.5 points per 36 minutes. His shooting percentages were 43.3%/40.1%/82.6%. He averaged 11.9 FGA and 1.8 FTA per 36 minutes.
Lee's numbers last year were similar to his career numbers, which have been pretty rock steady.
I'm not going to argue that Bradley is or isn't a better scorer than Lee. But I see absolutely NO evidence that Lee is a "vastly superior scorer" than Bradley.
Agreed. LarBrd33 is downplaying Bradley's abilities far more than reasonable caution about small sample size would justify.
He had a month of ridiculous shooting in April (52% FG, 55% from three and 78% from the line)... his percentages in High school (38% from three), College (43% FG, 37% 3P, 54% FT), his rookie season (34% FG, 0% 3P, 50% FT) and the playoffs (37% FG, 23% 3P, 67% FT) aren't very impressive. I say there's more evidence to suggest he's a bad shooter than a good one.
I don't think there's any doubt that Lee is a more polished offensive player and a better shooter. On defense, Lee is already making me a fan.
Bradley might be the real deal, but it's important to remember it was a lockout shortened season and his huge run happened in the tail of the season when guys like Kevin Seraphin look like superstars. I've said it before... I'm no more "sold" on Avery Bradley than I am on Kevin Seraphin (averaged 16 points, 7 boards, and 1.7 blocks in April). The element of surprise matters. I think Bradley can be good... but I wouldn't pass up the chance to add an established star like Smith if all we had to get rid of was Bradley and change.
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last 2 years bradley got to study under ray allen. Now he gets to study jason terry and his awesome moves. Perfect education for the natural defensive phenom bradley.
I want to see bradley get some situational or extended opportunities to be a selfish shoot first point guard, with sully and green and darko setting picks for bradley and crashing the boards, and terry/lee sitting open at the 3 pt line. Let bradley show what he's got. That superior quickness and speed works not just on defense, ya know.
It's a good point, because aside from Jason Terry... there's not very many 6'2 180 pound shooting guards who have been successful in this league. Smart move by the celtics to bring him in to mentor Bradley.
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I seriously question the idea of Lee is a 'vastly superior' scorer than Bradley...I haven't seen anything thus far to indicate that.
Looking at Lee's offensive skill set:
- He is a capable passer (in that he can connect on a pass without turning it over) but not a playmaker
- He shoots at an excellent rate on corner three's, but an average or below average rate on above break three's
- He's a solid (but not exceptional) midrange shooter
- He's capable of (but not fantastic at) creating his own shot
- He cut's well without the ball
- He's a decent (but not great) ball handler
All of the above is pretty much Avery Bradley in a nutshell. You can argue that Lee is a more polished version of Avery Bradley on offense, but 'vastly superior'? I don't think that is accurate at all.
Also small sample size or not is irrelevant - you can't just make up numbers out of thin air, so you need to go off the strongest sample size you have, and right now for Bradley that is last season.
Defensively though Bradley is FAR better. The impression I get so far is that Courtney Lee is quick enough to stick with opposing players and who has a pretty good eye for the ball. Bradley on the other hand is an Elite defensive player who gets right up in the face of opposing players, gets in their heads, takes them completely out of their game, forces errors and can completely dominate a game with his defensive pressure.
There are few players who you actually grab the spotlight when they are playing defense - when Bradley is defending somebody full court all of the attention is on him.
IMHO as long as Bradley's defense is at the same level it was at last season (and if I were the coach), he would be starting the instant he returns. First reason is his defensive pressure, second reason is that he already has good chemistry with the starting lineup and he's a perfect fit within that group.
Lee actually makes for a fantastic second tier SG because he can come off the bench and give Boston an advantage against most teams on both sides of the floor. He's good enough defensively to shut down second tier SGs, and he is good enough offensively that second tier SGs would have problems defending him.
To me the difficult decision is between Terry and Barbosa, and I believe Terry will usually get the edge there because of:
1. His championship experience
2. His consistent shooting (Barbosa has a reputation for being a streak shooter)
3. His ability to score in the clutch and close out games
Barbosa had me seriously thinking twice about that yesterday, but at the end of the day it was one game - Terry played solid (if not great) and Barbosa was simply beasting. If Barbosa does what he did yesterday consistently then it's going to be very difficult to deny him playing time - he pretty much single handedly put us back in that game.
With Bradley back though I honestly feel like Lee is the most expendable...simply because he is solid (like Bradley) but doesn't really excel at anything. I see him helping you through games, but I don't see him winning you games. Bradley (on Defense), Terry and Barbosa (on offense) all have the ability to dominate opposing teams in spurts, and that's what often wins games.
Completely unrelated, but Bass was phenomenal yesterday. I don't expect that we will see that type of shooting efficiency and rebounding aggression from him every day, but if we do I will forever eat my words about him being average. Maybe the extra competition from Sully has lit a firecracker under his behind!
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Why not play 5 guards? Just push the tempo more. Start Bradley and tell him to press the opposing PG from the get go. When he tires out throw in another warm body.
It seems like we have a pretty good problem here. All 5 guys are quality NBA players. We should find a way to make sure they all see the court. If that can't be done we should trade whoever has the most value and get back a quality big.
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Once Bradley comes back, Rondo can pick a game to go flagrant 2 against Wade and not put the team in a horrible spot if he has to miss a game or two.
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The truth is that when you look at our roster, we are actually down a guard. We have five when a truly balanced roster would have six. I'm cool with going a guard short and carrying an extra big.
Granted, all our guards are players who deserve minutes, but how many games are we actually going to have all five guards healthy at the same time?
Rondo might end up playing forty a game for the season, but Doc's going to feel much more comfortable resting him for bumps and bruises when he needs to, having the guys he has backing him up this year.
If all five guys are ever healthy at the same time, Lee, Barbosa, or Bradley aren't going to rock the boat over a DNP here or there.
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Our guard rotation when AB is healthy:
Rondo
Lee
Terry
Barbosa
Bradley
Sorry ya'll gotta stop drinkin the kool aid. Bradley hasnt proven himself and is not as good as the other four guards on our team. I hope AB can find minutes to play tough D for a few minutes a game. But he just isnt as good as the rest of our guards, and 14 good games in a lock out season wont prove me otherwise.
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At the moment I think Courtney Lee is better than Bradley. I hope I'm wrong, but I see Lee is a vastly superior scorer and probably on the same level defensively.
While I agree that folks should tone down the hype on Bradley and wait to see how good of a player he is coming back from his surgery, I'm struggling to see from where you are drawing the conclusion that Lee "is a vastly superior scorer".
Bradley played 1368 minutes last year and averaged 12.7 points per 36 minutes. Yes, he averaged 16.5 per 36 in April (almost 14per for Mar/April combined), but let's include the whole season. His shooting percentages were 49.8%/40.7%/79.5%. He averaged 10.6 FGAs and 2.1 FTAs per 36 minutes.
Lee played 1757 minutes last year and averaged 13.5 points per 36 minutes. His shooting percentages were 43.3%/40.1%/82.6%. He averaged 11.9 FGA and 1.8 FTA per 36 minutes.
Lee's numbers last year were similar to his career numbers, which have been pretty rock steady.
I'm not going to argue that Bradley is or isn't a better scorer than Lee. But I see absolutely NO evidence that Lee is a "vastly superior scorer" than Bradley.
Agreed. LarBrd33 is downplaying Bradley's abilities far more than reasonable caution about small sample size would justify.
He had a month of ridiculous shooting in April (52% FG, 55% from three and 78% from the line)... his percentages in High school (38% from three), College (43% FG, 37% 3P, 54% FT), his rookie season (34% FG, 0% 3P, 50% FT) and the playoffs (37% FG, 23% 3P, 67% FT) aren't very impressive. I say there's more evidence to suggest he's a bad shooter than a good one.
I don't think there's any doubt that Lee is a more polished offensive player and a better shooter. On defense, Lee is already making me a fan.
Oh come on - the 'rookie season' sample size is 162 minutes scattered across 31 games. He only got more than 10 minutes playing time in TWO of those games! And the playoff sample is just 240 minutes - while playing with two bad shoulders!
Your paragraph implicitly gives those two samples equal weight with a whole 1368 minute season! That's blatant mis-use of statistics. That's barely 400 minutes of play (scattered in large part across many small snippets of lay) compared to over two thousand minutes that suggest he is a anything BUT a 'bad shooter'.
Bradley logged:
1003 minutes in college and shot 37.5% from 3PT range.
290 minutes in the D league and shot 37% from 3PT range.
1368 minutes in his first real NBA season and shot 40.7%.
I don't have his H.S. minutes handy (I could look them up) but they are probably several hundred more that support this. He shot 38% from 3PT range in H.S.
In the situations where Bradley has gotten extended run (i.e. multiple games with extended minutes per game) i.e., High School, College, D-League and this last season of the NBA) he has consistently shot between 37% - 40.7% from 3PT range.
So there is FAR MORE evidence suggesting that he is a good shooter than a bad one.
It is extremely probable that he will likely be somewhere in the range of 37-40% from 3PT land going forward.
I will readily accept your retreat to the assertion that Lee is probably a more 'polished' offensive player. Given that he has several years of experience on Bradley, that is to be expected. So far.
It is reasonable to ask folks to tone down the positive hyperbole a bit on Bradley. But you are yourself pushing the negative hyperbole to an extreme. It undercuts the credibility of your valid points.
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At the moment I think Courtney Lee is better than Bradley. I hope I'm wrong, but I see Lee is a vastly superior scorer and probably on the same level defensively.
While I agree that folks should tone down the hype on Bradley and wait to see how good of a player he is coming back from his surgery, I'm struggling to see from where you are drawing the conclusion that Lee "is a vastly superior scorer".
Bradley played 1368 minutes last year and averaged 12.7 points per 36 minutes. Yes, he averaged 16.5 per 36 in April (almost 14per for Mar/April combined), but let's include the whole season. His shooting percentages were 49.8%/40.7%/79.5%. He averaged 10.6 FGAs and 2.1 FTAs per 36 minutes.
Lee played 1757 minutes last year and averaged 13.5 points per 36 minutes. His shooting percentages were 43.3%/40.1%/82.6%. He averaged 11.9 FGA and 1.8 FTA per 36 minutes.
Lee's numbers last year were similar to his career numbers, which have been pretty rock steady.
I'm not going to argue that Bradley is or isn't a better scorer than Lee. But I see absolutely NO evidence that Lee is a "vastly superior scorer" than Bradley.
Agreed. LarBrd33 is downplaying Bradley's abilities far more than reasonable caution about small sample size would justify.
He had a month of ridiculous shooting in April (52% FG, 55% from three and 78% from the line)... his percentages in High school (38% from three), College (43% FG, 37% 3P, 54% FT), his rookie season (34% FG, 0% 3P, 50% FT) and the playoffs (37% FG, 23% 3P, 67% FT) aren't very impressive. I say there's more evidence to suggest he's a bad shooter than a good one.
I don't think there's any doubt that Lee is a more polished offensive player and a better shooter. On defense, Lee is already making me a fan.
Bradley might be the real deal, but it's important to remember it was a lockout shortened season and his huge run happened in the tail of the season when guys like Kevin Seraphin look like superstars. I've said it before... I'm no more "sold" on Avery Bradley than I am on Kevin Seraphin (averaged 16 points, 7 boards, and 1.7 blocks in April). The element of surprise matters. I think Bradley can be good... but I wouldn't pass up the chance to add an established star like Smith if all we had to get rid of was Bradley and change.
Not many would have problems with moving Bradley for a star like Smith (I wouldn't), but that's not what you said - you pegged Bradley as our 5th best guard.
And I don't know why you think 38% from three in high school and college (and later in the D-League) isn't good. That's very solid.
Bradley's offensive game is remarkably similar to Lee's - transition, off-ball movement and corner 3s and pull-up mid-range J's are what they are good at. They are both mediocre penetrators given their mediocre handles and tunnel vision. Lee has more range on his 3 and a longer track record, so I'd give him the slight edge offensively, but Bradley has a significantly better defensive track record (widely hailed as the best perimeter defender in college and heralded with similar acclaim once he got burn in the pros).
If he's healthy, I think Bradley's the 2nd or 3rd best guard in the rotation depending on how Terry fits.
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With a trade.
Probably not for Josh Smith.
It almost HAS to result in a trade. I just fail to see how 5 guards deserving of 20-35 minutes a game can all play in the same backcourt.
My hope is we are able to turn our over abundance of guards into a legit starting level PF/C. Be it Smith, Varejao, or some other impact big, we need an upgrade here.
I have no idea who stays or goes outside of Rondo and Terry though (both will be staying). Lee, Bradley and Barbosa are all potential trade bait in my eyes. I will almost guarantee at least one will be traded.
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Our guard rotation when AB is healthy:
Rondo
Lee
Terry
Barbosa
Bradley
Sorry ya'll gotta stop drinkin the kool aid. Bradley hasnt proven himself and is not as good as the other four guards on our team. I hope AB can find minutes to play tough D for a few minutes a game. But he just isnt as good as the rest of our guards, and 14 good games in a lock out season wont prove me otherwise.
Depends on who we're playing. Can't wait to see Bradley harass Wade all night long. Lee, Terry and Barbosa won't do it.
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My hope is we are able to turn our over abundance of guards into a legit starting level PF/C. Be it Smith, Varejao, or some other impact big, we need an upgrade here.
I have no idea who stays or goes outside of Rondo and Terry though (both will be staying). Lee, Bradley and Barbosa are all potential trade bait in my eyes. I will almost guarantee at least one will be traded.
I just don't see it happening if you set the bar too high on what you considering a legit starting-level big.
I think you can get a role player who is the big man equivalent of Courtney Lee, but I see Lee as less legit of a starter at SG than Brandon Bass is at PF. If you do land a "legit" starter, I suspect it's probably going to be a guy who is undervalued because he is a couple of inches shorter than what is considered the ideal height for his position.
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I think you can get a role player who is the big man equivalent of Courtney Lee, but I see Lee as less legit of a starter at SG than Brandon Bass is at PF.
Why would you consider Bass more of a legit starter than Lee?
I'd view Courtney Lee as the better option as a starting quality player. A much more capable defensive player + is a solid passer / ball-handler who helps his team's ball movement (this is the reason why Lee started ahead of Pietrus in Orlando). Similar scoring ability. Similar weaknesses as possession creators.
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Our guard rotation when AB is healthy:
Rondo
Lee
Terry
Barbosa
Bradley
Sorry ya'll gotta stop drinkin the kool aid. Bradley hasnt proven himself and is not as good as the other four guards on our team. I hope AB can find minutes to play tough D for a few minutes a game. But he just isnt as good as the rest of our guards, and 14 good games in a lock out season wont prove me otherwise.
I have them as:
Rondo (orchestrator)
Bradley (defender, energizer)
Terry (bench scorer/playmaker)
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Lee (extra defender, shooter)
Barbosa (superfluous scorer)
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Our guard rotation when AB is healthy:
Rondo
Lee
Terry
Barbosa
Bradley
Sorry ya'll gotta stop drinkin the kool aid. Bradley hasnt proven himself and is not as good as the other four guards on our team. I hope AB can find minutes to play tough D for a few minutes a game. But he just isnt as good as the rest of our guards, and 14 good games in a lock out season wont prove me otherwise.
I think Doc's drinking the kool aid as well, I'm pretty sure I read that they're expecting Bradley to get a lot of playing time when he's healthy.
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I think you can get a role player who is the big man equivalent of Courtney Lee, but I see Lee as less legit of a starter at SG than Brandon Bass is at PF.
Why would you consider Bass more of a legit starter than Lee?
I haven't crunched the numbers and actually counted the number of players, but looking at the depth charts (http://espn.go.com/nba/depth), I suspect there are fewer starting SGs that I think are clearly inferior to Lee than there are fewer starting PFs that I think are clearly inferior to Bass. I'm sure others disagree with me, but I wouldn't want to swap Bass for Kris Humphries.
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Bradley starts because I think he helps establish a good rhythm defensively for the team. After that its a mess but I presume
JET/LEE depending on matchups with JET getting preference for minutes
Barbosa gets some minutes as Rondo's backup what I think it does is either JET and Rondo or Rondo and Barbosa will spend little to no time on the floor together minutes will get crowded for sure unless there is a trade....
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bump....anybody changed their opinion on this?
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havent read the thread , but to me
pg: Rondo 35 mpg / Bradley 13 mpg
sg: Braley 20 mpg/ Terry 18- 20 mpg / Lee 8-10 mpg
Lee has to be the odd man out and probably trade bait for a big man along with Bass/sully/melo and picks
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Our guard rotation when AB is healthy:
Rondo
Lee
Terry
Barbosa
Bradley
Sorry ya'll gotta stop drinkin the kool aid. Bradley hasnt proven himself and is not as good as the other four guards on our team. I hope AB can find minutes to play tough D for a few minutes a game. But he just isnt as good as the rest of our guards, and 14 good games in a lock out season wont prove me otherwise.
I think Doc's drinking the kool aid as well, I'm pretty sure I read that they're expecting Bradley to get a lot of playing time when he's healthy.
Oh Joy.
My opinion has changed slightly:
Rondo
Terry
Lee
Bradley
Barbosa.
Bradley should get more minutes over Barbosa. I still think Bradley should be traded to the highest bidder in the big market.
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If anything, I suspect Doc will use more smallball to get 3 of the 5 guards on the floor at the same time. probably with Green and Sully. run, run, run while getting killed on the boards
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havent read the thread , but to me
pg: Rondo 35 mpg / Bradley 13 mpg
sg: Braley 20 mpg/ Terry 18- 20 mpg / Lee 8-10 mpg
Lee has to be the odd man out and probably trade bait for a big man along with Bass/sully/melo and picks
I would much rather give up Bass than either sully or melo. Plus bass's contract would make it much easier to facilitate a trade
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havent read the thread , but to me
pg: Rondo 35 mpg / Bradley 13 mpg
sg: Braley 20 mpg/ Terry 18- 20 mpg / Lee 8-10 mpg
Lee has to be the odd man out and probably trade bait for a big man along with Bass/sully/melo and picks
I would much rather give up Bass than either sully or melo. Plus bass's contract would make it much easier to facilitate a trade
The thought of Bradley as the backup point guard scares me dearly.
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havent read the thread , but to me
pg: Rondo 35 mpg / Bradley 13 mpg
sg: Braley 20 mpg/ Terry 18- 20 mpg / Lee 8-10 mpg
Lee has to be the odd man out and probably trade bait for a big man along with Bass/sully/melo and picks
I would much rather give up Bass than either sully or melo. Plus bass's contract would make it much easier to facilitate a trade
It's the opposite. Almost all non-contenders don't want complimentary pieces that take up significant cap space for multiple years. They'd much rather have the younger players that could possibly break out because they haven't gotten enough minutes to fully prove themselves like Bass. The contracts are also much more desirable, and give them the ability to keep the player in restricted free agency.
Not to mention the fact that pairing Bass and Lee alone eliminates any possibility of a trade, as they're not enough to yield any 9+ million dollar players in the league.
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havent read the thread , but to me
pg: Rondo 35 mpg / Bradley 13 mpg
sg: Braley 20 mpg/ Terry 18- 20 mpg / Lee 8-10 mpg
Lee has to be the odd man out and probably trade bait for a big man along with Bass/sully/melo and picks
I would much rather give up Bass than either sully or melo. Plus bass's contract would make it much easier to facilitate a trade
It's the opposite. Almost all non-contenders don't want complimentary pieces that take up significant cap space for multiple years. They'd much rather have the younger players that could possibly break out because they haven't gotten enough minutes to fully prove themselves like Bass. The contracts are also much more desirable, and give them the ability to keep the player in restricted free agency.
Not to mention the fact that pairing Bass and Lee alone eliminates any possibility of a trade, as they're not enough to yield any 9+ million dollar players in the league.
True..good point. I still don't want to trade either sully or melo. At least want to see melo get a chance in green (likely next season)