CelticsStrong
Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: LEHGOCELTICS on October 05, 2012, 07:09:02 PM
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We have two of the most prolific scorers in the league come crunch time. As much as Dirk hit his share of threes, Terry was also a monster come the fourth quarter. With this in mind, during the final stages of a game, do you guys still see Pierce engaging in iso situations, Terry getting free reign, or even Rondo stepping up as a crunch time scorer this year? I know it's early in the season, but some food for thought. God, we're so blessed to have this team. Go Celtics!
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I think Pierce will still be the go-to guy simply because he can score in so many ways - he can spot up, he can post up or he can score off the dribble.
If Pierce is covered well though, the ability to defer to Terry will be massive for us...and I'm sure there will be times where Doc will draw up the final play for the Jet as well.
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Pierce.
Terry has been good in crunch time. But Pierce has been one of the absolute best point creators in crunch time consistently for years and still was last year.
On this team, when it comes down to the wire, you want the ball in Pierce's hands. He's the best we have at turning the ball into points, whether that's on a drive, a fall-away, a 3, a post-up or at the foul line or by passing to an open teammate (Pierce gets a a LOT of assists during crunch time).
Terry should be one of his options on the court and will take his share of 'last shots'. But it should all key off Pierce. He's our best offensive player.
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I think it goes back to before last season.
We have 3 seasoned vets on the floor at the same time. Pick your poison.
Except this time, we also have the best passer and we have the Jet instead who can come off the screen for a pick and roll.
Doc also has the option to put in JG who can cut/create, Courtney who can space the floor even more, Bass who shoots mid range shots at the rate of layups and Sully who grabs the miss if need be.
Once again I've typed too much. In short my answer would be neither.
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Pierce, because of Doc. Also, he's earned it. I don't love the Pierce isolation play in the last 15 seconds but I do think he's earned it.
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I certainly understand the hype and excitement about the Jet being a Celtic, as I'm excited as anyone about it myself, but I think it gets a bit beyond the realistic at times, especially when he has yet to solidify himself a place on this team, or a clearly defined role and chemistry with the rest of the members. Let's wait at least until mid-season befopre giving him chances at a clutch scoring spot that Pierce took years to appreciate and earn.
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If the end of the regular season and the playoffs were any indication, it will depend much on matchups. This means imo that Rondo should have the ball most of the time, because few point guards can really stop him. If Pierce has the more favorable matchup, he should have it though. In special cases (like the Bulls and perhaps the Heat), Jet will probably have the best matchup, and we can put the ball in his hands.
But it is really a three headed monster plus KG as a very clutch finisher and Green/Bass/Sullinger as the fifth option...
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I think pierce is still going to be the go-to-guy
but I have a feeling Terry is going to hit some big shots for us this year.
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I would compare this to the relationship Pierce and Ray had : Pierce is the definite closer, but the Celtics often went with Ray for the game changing 3.
I do trust Terry's three more than Pierce.
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I certainly understand the hype and excitement about the Jet being a Celtic, as I'm excited as anyone about it myself, but I think it gets a bit beyond the realistic at times, especially when he has yet to solidify himself a place on this team, or a clearly defined role and chemistry with the rest of the members. Let's wait at least until mid-season befopre giving him chances at a clutch scoring spot that Pierce took years to appreciate and earn.
I'm not sure it goes "beyond the realistic." Since 2007-2008, the first year that 82Games.com started tracking these numbers, Terry has ranked 16th, 12th, 25th, 14th, and 13th in the league in "close and late" scoring output. He is an elite end-of-game scorer.
Take a look at this list:
http://www.82games.com/1112/CSORT11.HTM
His scoring average is roughly 35 per 48 minutes in those situations - very similar to Pierce. Not too different from other elite end-of-game guys like Anthony, Durant etc. He's "taken years" to establish this as much as Pierce has.
What is even more exceptional is Terry's efficiency in these situations. Last year he shot 45/39/93 in the "clutch," and the year before 51/44/94.
Now having said that, I think Pierce is still the primary option. But what I think we will see is a lot more flexibility in the sets.
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In answer to your three questions, yes, yes, and yes. Doc's choices seem limitless...there is no way for the opponent to guess which option he will choose on any given night. (and don't forget KG....)
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I think it will be Rondo. I think the ball will go through him in late game situations. If we're talking about a last minute shot it could be either Pierce or Jet.
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Once again I've typed too much. In short my answer would be neither.
Ha! My initial reaction was both. :)
I just think it's going to depend on what the opponent gives the C's, and with Pierce, Terry, KG, Green and Rondo (for example) on the floor they'll have to give the C's an open look somewhere. If Rondo can start consistently knocking down jumpers teams will have to keep a man on him and then somebody is always going to be wide open...so "open man sinks the dagger."
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I would compare this to the relationship Pierce and Ray had : Pierce is the definite closer, but the Celtics often went with Ray for the game changing 3.
This is the correct answer. Unless of course Darko is open for a 3. When you've got a choice between two dynamic scorers and a wide open 7ft serbian hatchet man, you got 7ft serbian hatchetman.
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All of the above.
I think it's quite likely that Doc will go with a lineup of
Rondo
Terry
Pierce
Green
KG
to close out most games.
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We actually saw KG hitting some big last minute shots. I think Doc will start spreading it around. Also not so sure Rondo will be on the floor at the end of games. Will be interesting if he can keep his shooting numbers up this year!
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Statistically, our best best clutch scorers (based on last season's stats) are:
1. Pierce
2. Terry
3. Garnett
4. Lee
5. Bass
6. Rondo
I see out closing options going more or less in that order. First plan will be to set something up for Pierce. If that fails backup plan will be to get it to Terry, and if that fails the third option will be to get the ball to KG.
I think Terry's clutch role will be similar to what he had in Dallas because he is really our second scoring options behind Pierce come crunch time, and he was the second scoring option behind Dirk in Dallas.
I also think that with those two guys it depends on the type of shot we are looking for. If we need a three to tie/win the game then I think we try to create a play for Terry as our first option. If we only need one or two points then we will most likely look to Pierce as a first option, and then either Terry or KG as a second option.
Once you go past KG I think the options will change depending on what is needed. As above, if we need a three to tie/win then I think Lee becomes the next option after Terry and Pierce. If we only need an efficient two then I think Rondo, Green and Sullinger becomes the guys we look to.
I'm not sure if Bass will stil be an option with all these guys out there, becuase his specialty is the midrange shot...which happens to be the most inefficient shot in basketball.
Having too many players that can score in the clutch? Great problem to have :)
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I certainly understand the hype and excitement about the Jet being a Celtic, as I'm excited as anyone about it myself, but I think it gets a bit beyond the realistic at times, especially when he has yet to solidify himself a place on this team, or a clearly defined role and chemistry with the rest of the members. Let's wait at least until mid-season befopre giving him chances at a clutch scoring spot that Pierce took years to appreciate and earn.
I'm not sure it goes "beyond the realistic." Since 2007-2008, the first year that 82Games.com started tracking these numbers, Terry has ranked 16th, 12th, 25th, 14th, and 13th in the league in "close and late" scoring output. He is an elite end-of-game scorer.
Take a look at this list:
http://www.82games.com/1112/CSORT11.HTM
His scoring average is roughly 35 per 48 minutes in those situations - very similar to Pierce. Not too different from other elite end-of-game guys like Anthony, Durant etc. He's "taken years" to establish this as much as Pierce has.
What is even more exceptional is Terry's efficiency in these situations. Last year he shot 45/39/93 in the "clutch," and the year before 51/44/94.
Now having said that, I think Pierce is still the primary option. But what I think we will see is a lot more flexibility in the sets.
Yeah, the key thing to look at in that table you linked to is stroll your eyes up a few rows above Terry to Pierce. Then slide to the right and notice the 6.5 assists per 48 that he deals out. Terry only dealt out 2 per 48. Also, note that of Terry's points in clutch, a HUGE percentage of them are on 3PT shots, which he made at a nice 39.1% clip. Very good for a 3PT shot. But when you only need two points, that's not a good option. You would like a higher percentage shot if you only need 2. Pierce is so much more versatile because he can get you one or two points in a variety of ways.
Notice in those rankings that Pierce scored more total points per 48 than Terry, yet took only 19.6 shots per 48, while Terry took 25. Pierce took fewer shots, but made them at a higher percentage. AND he also scored points by drawing fouls - taking 16.7 FTA per 48, compared to just 7.8 FTA for Terry.
Look at the top 15 scorers in that list. The only guy other than Pierce posting that volume of points scored, while taking less than 20 shots is Stuckey (15th). Everyone else is a big volume shooter.
Pierce is parsimonious - he may have the ball in what a lot of fans think is an 'iso' - but he only takes his shot if its a good one. He's one of only 3 guys in that top 15 to shoot over 50% last year during clutch time. He also dished out a lot of assists in those situations, creating an additional ~14.5 points on top of his own shooting.
The net net of all this is that Pierce continued to be an amazing, elite point-creator during clutch time last year. Until that is no longer true, I want the ball to go through his hands in clutch time.
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I certainly understand the hype and excitement about the Jet being a Celtic, as I'm excited as anyone about it myself, but I think it gets a bit beyond the realistic at times, especially when he has yet to solidify himself a place on this team, or a clearly defined role and chemistry with the rest of the members. Let's wait at least until mid-season befopre giving him chances at a clutch scoring spot that Pierce took years to appreciate and earn.
I'm not sure it goes "beyond the realistic." Since 2007-2008, the first year that 82Games.com started tracking these numbers, Terry has ranked 16th, 12th, 25th, 14th, and 13th in the league in "close and late" scoring output. He is an elite end-of-game scorer.
Take a look at this list:
http://www.82games.com/1112/CSORT11.HTM
His scoring average is roughly 35 per 48 minutes in those situations - very similar to Pierce. Not too different from other elite end-of-game guys like Anthony, Durant etc. He's "taken years" to establish this as much as Pierce has.
What is even more exceptional is Terry's efficiency in these situations. Last year he shot 45/39/93 in the "clutch," and the year before 51/44/94.
Now having said that, I think Pierce is still the primary option. But what I think we will see is a lot more flexibility in the sets.
Yeah, the key thing to look at in that table you linked to is stroll your eyes up a few rows above Terry to Pierce. Then slide to the right and notice the 6.5 assists per 48 that he deals out. Terry only dealt out 2 per 48. Also, note that of Terry's points in clutch, a HUGE percentage of them are on 3PT shots, which he made at a nice 39.1% clip. Very good for a 3PT shot. But when you only need two points, that's not a good option. You would like a higher percentage shot if you only need 2. Pierce is so much more versatile because he can get you one or two points in a variety of ways.
Notice in those rankings that Pierce scored more total points per 48 than Terry, yet took only 19.6 shots per 48, while Terry took 25. Pierce took fewer shots, but made them at a higher percentage. AND he also scored points by drawing fouls - taking 16.7 FTA per 48, compared to just 7.8 FTA for Terry.
Look at the top 15 scorers in that list. The only guy other than Pierce posting that volume of points scored, while taking less than 20 shots is Stuckey (15th). Everyone else is a big volume shooter.
Pierce is parsimonious - he may have the ball in what a lot of fans think is an 'iso' - but he only takes his shot if its a good one. He's one of only 3 guys in that top 15 to shoot over 50% last year during clutch time. He also dished out a lot of assists in those situations, creating an additional ~14.5 points on top of his own shooting.
The net net of all this is that Pierce continued to be an amazing, elite point-creator during clutch time last year. Until that is no longer true, I want the ball to go through his hands in clutch time.
Agreed, although matchups are important. Against the Evil Empire, Pierce has a much tougher matchup on D, particularly in isolation.
Terry would have Chalmers or Mr. Creaky Ankles on him, unless they put Wade on Terry and one of the other guys on Rondo, which is its own kind of mismatch.