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Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: Kane3387 on August 26, 2012, 12:09:19 PM

Title: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: Kane3387 on August 26, 2012, 12:09:19 PM
It's an insider piece on the players he feels could prevent LeBron James from winning his 4th MVP trophy.

Here are his thoughts on Rajon Rondo and what he feels he needs to do to win it.

Quote
Rondo is not typically on most people's list of MVP candidates, but it could happen. The Celtics are clearly his team, and I love what they did this offseason. They had a strong draft in getting Jared Sullinger and Fab Melo. They added Jason Terry as a free agent, and Jeff Green and Avery Bradley will return from injury. Boston is going to contend in the East, and Rondo will be its engine.

To win the MVP award, he'll need to lead the Celtics to at least the second-best record in the East with a mark that is close to that of the Heat's. And he'll need to rack up several triple-doubles, lead the league in assists and score about 15 points a game, which would be a career-high. That's asking a lot, but if he can do it, he might be rewarded with the MVP award.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8293954/nba-other-mvp-candidates-besides-lebron-james

Other players he mentions are Kevin Durant, Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, Tony Parker, Kobe Bryant, and Carmelo Anthony.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: ManUp on August 26, 2012, 12:27:07 PM
There's being in the conversation and then there's actually winning. Rondo would have to have a ridiculous assist season to make up for the lack of scoring. Rondo would have to put up Stockton numbers, 14/13/5 or something like that, while being dominant.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: Donoghus on August 26, 2012, 12:29:53 PM
It'd be a huge uphill battle considering he's going up  against Lebron, Durant, and others.

Would love to see him in the conversation, though.   That would most likely mean the Celtics are playing extremely well.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: Finkelskyhook on August 26, 2012, 01:31:37 PM
Every once in awhile Broussard trips over himself and says something lucid.

Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: KCattheStripe on August 26, 2012, 01:32:22 PM
Well, now we know it won't happen.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: wahz on August 26, 2012, 01:41:44 PM
Well, imho, he wins it outright if we have the best record and probably only then unless several obvious contenders have something go wrong with their season. Rajon can go 15-12 -4, improve his free throw shooting to 70+ and as the deepest team in basketball there is no reason for us to not win the most games.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: pearljammer10 on August 26, 2012, 01:52:11 PM
I think rondo is gonna put up big numbers this year. He's got Kevin and Paul carrying less of a load and young guys to coach and set an example for. If he brings it every night like he does in the playoffs he could easily win it. However this team is built for the postseason and I think he will save his energy for that. Plus the league and fans are infatuated with superstars who can sell, lebron Durant and Paul will be ahead of rondo regardless of his numbers unfortunately.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: heitingas on August 26, 2012, 01:53:06 PM
Rondo coasts during regular season,saving himself for the playoffs. That's why he's a playoff performer.
Doubt this happens, I would love if he got voted to start the ASG though.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: Celtics18 on August 26, 2012, 02:03:21 PM
I guess it's in the realm of possibility, but the likelihood of Rondo getting the MVP award isn't high.

I do think he's the front runner for starting Eastern Conference All-Star point guard, though, with D. Williams being the main challenger, and Wall and Irving having an outside shot if they can lead their respective teams to winning records.

Being an All-NBA first teamer is within reach, as well, although there will obviously be some very stiff competition.

But, c'mon, Broussard, I thought it was just us wild eyed, delusional, green-tinted glasses wearing homers who considered Rajon Rondo one of the best players in the league.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: xmuscularghandix on August 26, 2012, 02:43:57 PM
Agreed. If Rondo can average about 15-12-5 with a ton of triple doubles, and a top 2 seed for the Celtics... he would deserve the MVP.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: LooseCannon on August 26, 2012, 02:45:11 PM
If Rondo is perceived as improving and the Celtics end up with the best record in the East, Rondo will get the lion's share of credit for the improvement in the team.  If he can couple that with some signature monster games on national television that single-handedly carry the team to victory against other contenders so that the perception is that on any given night, Rondo can match any other player in the league at their best, then, certainly, he would be talked about as an MVP.

It's not likely to happen, but it is certainly not so ridiculous that we aren't allowed to ponder "what if" scenarios.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: masteremile123 on August 26, 2012, 02:47:46 PM
Didn't Rondo have a bunch of triple doubles, lead the league in assists and been dominant with a horrible bench last year and no one to run with ? Yeah he will be fine.
Plus he is actually developing a shot , around the end of last season he was hitting mid-range jumpers consistently AND he was actually hitting 3s and actually shooting them (witch is really all he needs "confidence") so yeah Rondo winning mvp is not a long shot , actually his only competition are Lbj , Durant and Cp3.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: indeedproceed on August 26, 2012, 04:01:24 PM
Rondo is a pretty big longshot for MVP, since he's behind for sure LeBron, Durant, Paul, Howard, Westbrook (Westbrook's numbers are way prettier, that matters)..

I'd say if his PPG can top 16 and he continues with 11-12 APG, he's got a shot. Celtics have got to do well, and he can't miss many games though. 
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: Vermont Green on August 26, 2012, 04:27:48 PM
Boussard's exact words were "it could happen".  To be honest though, I still think that KG is our most impactful player (just look at the plus/minus numbers for KG on the court vs. off).

KG is an MVP candidate (or should be) if he just stays healthy and doesn't wear down too much through the season.  In order for Rondo to be a legitimate MVP candidate, he would need to dramatically improve his shooting, forcing teams to defend him honestly.

In reality, it is not likely that any Celtic is the MVP becasue our success will come from balance and depth, not the individual performance of a single player.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: BballTim on August 26, 2012, 04:33:07 PM
Rondo is a pretty big longshot for MVP, since he's behind for sure LeBron, Durant, Paul, Howard, Westbrook (Westbrook's numbers are way prettier, that matters)..

I'd say if his PPG can top 16 and he continues with 11-12 APG, he's got a shot. Celtics have got to do well, and he can't miss many games though.

  I don't think Rondo will win the MVP but he's finished higher in the voting that Westbrook has in each of the last 2 years, I doubt he's "for sure" behind him in the race.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: BballTim on August 26, 2012, 04:44:55 PM
Boussard's exact words were "it could happen".  To be honest though, I still think that KG is our most impactful player (just look at the plus/minus numbers for KG on the court vs. off).

KG is an MVP candidate (or should be) if he just stays healthy and doesn't wear down too much through the season.  In order for Rondo to be a legitimate MVP candidate, he would need to dramatically improve his shooting, forcing teams to defend him honestly.

  The coach of every team we faced in the playoffs talked about trying to contain Rondo as a top or the top priority of their defenses. That's probably more meaningful than how much they worry about his jump shooting.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: indeedproceed on August 26, 2012, 04:49:05 PM
Rondo is a pretty big longshot for MVP, since he's behind for sure LeBron, Durant, Paul, Howard, Westbrook (Westbrook's numbers are way prettier, that matters)..

I'd say if his PPG can top 16 and he continues with 11-12 APG, he's got a shot. Celtics have got to do well, and he can't miss many games though.

  I don't think Rondo will win the MVP but he's finished higher in the voting that Westbrook has in each of the last 2 years, I doubt he's "for sure" behind him in the race.

Yeah, 'for sure' is probably a little strong. Westbrook's playoffs were better than Rondo's, but Rondo has the benefit of being the most talented guy on his team, and everyone knows it.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: OsirusCeltics on August 26, 2012, 05:09:39 PM
Rondo has to average at least 18ppg to win MVP imo
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: Vermont Green on August 26, 2012, 05:10:54 PM
Boussard's exact words were "it could happen".  To be honest though, I still think that KG is our most impactful player (just look at the plus/minus numbers for KG on the court vs. off).

KG is an MVP candidate (or should be) if he just stays healthy and doesn't wear down too much through the season.  In order for Rondo to be a legitimate MVP candidate, he would need to dramatically improve his shooting, forcing teams to defend him honestly.

  The coach of every team we faced in the playoffs talked about trying to contain Rondo as a top or the top priority of their defenses. That's probably more meaningful than how much they worry about his jump shooting.

Quote
Player   Min   Own   Opp   Net   On   Off   Net
Garnett   58%   21.2   14.5   6.8   6.9   -3.7   10.5
Rondo   61%   18   10.7   7.2   4.8   -1.1   5.9
Pierce   65%   19.9   13.5   6.4   4.4   -1.1   5.6


I am not sure it is true that every coach made the statement that their top priority was to contain Rondo.  Of course, any coach would want to contain him and every other player on the court but the execution of this strategy was to not even cover Rondo and simply let him shoot anytime he wanted to.  This is in contrast to every other MVP candidate where they are double teamed on almost every possession and every effort is made to get the ball out of that players hands.

Then of course there are the stats that indicate the KG had nearly double the impact of either Pierce or Rondo, in fewer minutes.

And finally, you seem to be trivializing my comment that Rondo needs to improve his shooting.  I recall announcers saying things like "they aren't even covering Rondo" or "I can't believe how far off him they are playing".  That type of defensive scheme is unpresidented.  There is not another player in the league currently (and perhaps ever in the history of the league) that is "dared" more to shoot than Rondo.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: BballTim on August 26, 2012, 05:52:32 PM
Rondo is a pretty big longshot for MVP, since he's behind for sure LeBron, Durant, Paul, Howard, Westbrook (Westbrook's numbers are way prettier, that matters)..

I'd say if his PPG can top 16 and he continues with 11-12 APG, he's got a shot. Celtics have got to do well, and he can't miss many games though.

  I don't think Rondo will win the MVP but he's finished higher in the voting that Westbrook has in each of the last 2 years, I doubt he's "for sure" behind him in the race.

Yeah, 'for sure' is probably a little strong. Westbrook's playoffs were better than Rondo's, but Rondo has the benefit of being the most talented guy on his team, and everyone knows it.

  I would disagree that Westbrook had a better playoffs than Rondo.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: indeedproceed on August 26, 2012, 05:57:59 PM
Rondo is a pretty big longshot for MVP, since he's behind for sure LeBron, Durant, Paul, Howard, Westbrook (Westbrook's numbers are way prettier, that matters)..

I'd say if his PPG can top 16 and he continues with 11-12 APG, he's got a shot. Celtics have got to do well, and he can't miss many games though.

  I don't think Rondo will win the MVP but he's finished higher in the voting that Westbrook has in each of the last 2 years, I doubt he's "for sure" behind him in the race.

Yeah, 'for sure' is probably a little strong. Westbrook's playoffs were better than Rondo's, but Rondo has the benefit of being the most talented guy on his team, and everyone knows it.

  I would disagree that Westbrook had a better playoffs than Rondo.

I think there is a pretty valid case to be made that Rondo had a better overall playoffs. I think Westbrook's degree of difficulty was significantly harder, but Rondo can't control that and they both lost to the Heat.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: BballTim on August 26, 2012, 06:04:52 PM
Boussard's exact words were "it could happen".  To be honest though, I still think that KG is our most impactful player (just look at the plus/minus numbers for KG on the court vs. off).

KG is an MVP candidate (or should be) if he just stays healthy and doesn't wear down too much through the season.  In order for Rondo to be a legitimate MVP candidate, he would need to dramatically improve his shooting, forcing teams to defend him honestly.

  The coach of every team we faced in the playoffs talked about trying to contain Rondo as a top or the top priority of their defenses. That's probably more meaningful than how much they worry about his jump shooting.

Quote
Player   Min   Own   Opp   Net   On   Off   Net
Garnett   58%   21.2   14.5   6.8   6.9   -3.7   10.5
Rondo   61%   18   10.7   7.2   4.8   -1.1   5.9
Pierce   65%   19.9   13.5   6.4   4.4   -1.1   5.6


I am not sure it is true that every coach made the statement that their top priority was to contain Rondo.  Of course, any coach would want to contain him and every other player on the court but the execution of this strategy was to not even cover Rondo and simply let him shoot anytime he wanted to.  This is in contrast to every other MVP candidate where they are double teamed on almost every possession and every effort is made to get the ball out of that players hands.

Then of course there are the stats that indicate the KG had nearly double the impact of either Pierce or Rondo, in fewer minutes.

And finally, you seem to be trivializing my comment that Rondo needs to improve his shooting.  I recall announcers saying things like "they aren't even covering Rondo" or "I can't believe how far off him they are playing".  That type of defensive scheme is unpresidented.  There is not another player in the league currently (and perhaps ever in the history of the league) that is "dared" more to shoot than Rondo.

  KG played well but much of his impact was due to his being the only decent player on the team over 6'8 or so. No team is going to win very many games if their bigs consist of Bass, a hobbled Steimsma and Hollins. Teams can't really double Rondo because he'd pick them apart with his passing.

  And the league's full of players that aren't guarded closely when they're 20 feet from the basket. Rondo's a mediocre ahooter but he's not that far below average. If you watched more than a handful of Celts games in 2010-2011 you'd have seen Big Baby left alone and dared to shoot as much as Rondo was. Claiming that letting a player shoot from the outside is an unprecedented defense or that Rondo's dared to shoot more than any other player in the history of the league is absolute nonsense.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: BballTim on August 26, 2012, 06:06:58 PM
Rondo is a pretty big longshot for MVP, since he's behind for sure LeBron, Durant, Paul, Howard, Westbrook (Westbrook's numbers are way prettier, that matters)..

I'd say if his PPG can top 16 and he continues with 11-12 APG, he's got a shot. Celtics have got to do well, and he can't miss many games though.

  I don't think Rondo will win the MVP but he's finished higher in the voting that Westbrook has in each of the last 2 years, I doubt he's "for sure" behind him in the race.

Yeah, 'for sure' is probably a little strong. Westbrook's playoffs were better than Rondo's, but Rondo has the benefit of being the most talented guy on his team, and everyone knows it.

  I would disagree that Westbrook had a better playoffs than Rondo.

I think there is a pretty valid case to be made that Rondo had a better overall playoffs. I think Westbrook's degree of difficulty was significantly harder, but Rondo can't control that and they both lost to the Heat.

  With all the injuries the Celts had to deal with in the playoffs I don't see how Westbrook's degree of difficulty was significantly harder.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: MJohnnyboy on August 26, 2012, 06:07:59 PM
Well Nash won MVP two years in a row (even though Shaq should have won in 05 and Kobe should have won in 06), and his numbers aren't necessarily unattainable for someone like Rondo. 15-19 points a game, 11-12 assists. Keep in mind Rondo is a better defensive player than Nash and is a better rebounder.

I don't think Rondo as an MVP candidate is completely out of the question.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: indeedproceed on August 26, 2012, 06:16:48 PM
Rondo is a pretty big longshot for MVP, since he's behind for sure LeBron, Durant, Paul, Howard, Westbrook (Westbrook's numbers are way prettier, that matters)..

I'd say if his PPG can top 16 and he continues with 11-12 APG, he's got a shot. Celtics have got to do well, and he can't miss many games though.

  I don't think Rondo will win the MVP but he's finished higher in the voting that Westbrook has in each of the last 2 years, I doubt he's "for sure" behind him in the race.

Yeah, 'for sure' is probably a little strong. Westbrook's playoffs were better than Rondo's, but Rondo has the benefit of being the most talented guy on his team, and everyone knows it.

  I would disagree that Westbrook had a better playoffs than Rondo.

I think there is a pretty valid case to be made that Rondo had a better overall playoffs. I think Westbrook's degree of difficulty was significantly harder, but Rondo can't control that and they both lost to the Heat.

  With all the injuries the Celts had to deal with in the playoffs I don't see how Westbrook's degree of difficulty was significantly harder.

You don't see how it was less difficult for an injury plagued Celtics team to beat the also injury ridden Hawks and Sixers (not injury ridden) to make it to the conference finals than it was for the Thunder to go through the Mavericks, Lakers, and Spurs?
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: BballTim on August 26, 2012, 06:43:07 PM
Rondo is a pretty big longshot for MVP, since he's behind for sure LeBron, Durant, Paul, Howard, Westbrook (Westbrook's numbers are way prettier, that matters)..

I'd say if his PPG can top 16 and he continues with 11-12 APG, he's got a shot. Celtics have got to do well, and he can't miss many games though.

  I don't think Rondo will win the MVP but he's finished higher in the voting that Westbrook has in each of the last 2 years, I doubt he's "for sure" behind him in the race.

Yeah, 'for sure' is probably a little strong. Westbrook's playoffs were better than Rondo's, but Rondo has the benefit of being the most talented guy on his team, and everyone knows it.

  I would disagree that Westbrook had a better playoffs than Rondo.

I think there is a pretty valid case to be made that Rondo had a better overall playoffs. I think Westbrook's degree of difficulty was significantly harder, but Rondo can't control that and they both lost to the Heat.

  With all the injuries the Celts had to deal with in the playoffs I don't see how Westbrook's degree of difficulty was significantly harder.

You don't see how it was less difficult for an injury plagued Celtics team to beat the also injury ridden Hawks and Sixers (not injury ridden) to make it to the conference finals than it was for the Thunder to go through the Mavericks, Lakers, and Spurs?

  You're saying you watched OKC dismantle the Mavs and Lakers and were thinking about what a difficult time they were having? Did you feel that the Lakers were some kind of powerhouse when they barely escaped the first round?
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: indeedproceed on August 26, 2012, 07:07:13 PM
Rondo is a pretty big longshot for MVP, since he's behind for sure LeBron, Durant, Paul, Howard, Westbrook (Westbrook's numbers are way prettier, that matters)..

I'd say if his PPG can top 16 and he continues with 11-12 APG, he's got a shot. Celtics have got to do well, and he can't miss many games though.

  I don't think Rondo will win the MVP but he's finished higher in the voting that Westbrook has in each of the last 2 years, I doubt he's "for sure" behind him in the race.

Yeah, 'for sure' is probably a little strong. Westbrook's playoffs were better than Rondo's, but Rondo has the benefit of being the most talented guy on his team, and everyone knows it.

  I would disagree that Westbrook had a better playoffs than Rondo.

I think there is a pretty valid case to be made that Rondo had a better overall playoffs. I think Westbrook's degree of difficulty was significantly harder, but Rondo can't control that and they both lost to the Heat.

  With all the injuries the Celts had to deal with in the playoffs I don't see how Westbrook's degree of difficulty was significantly harder.

You don't see how it was less difficult for an injury plagued Celtics team to beat the also injury ridden Hawks and Sixers (not injury ridden) to make it to the conference finals than it was for the Thunder to go through the Mavericks, Lakers, and Spurs?

  You're saying you watched OKC dismantle the Mavs and Lakers and were thinking about what a difficult time they were having? Did you feel that the Lakers were some kind of powerhouse when they barely escaped the first round?

I can tell you with every certainty that the Lakers, Spurs, or Mavs all make it out of the first in the East (assuming they're not facing the Heat or Cs), and the Spurs or Lakers likely advance to the Conference Finals.

I mean, just cuz the Thunder whooped on them doesn't mean that they wouldn't have whooped on us or the Heat. Matchups matter quite a bit.

But empirically the Lakers and Spurs at least were head and shoulders above anyone in the East excepting the Heat and post-allstar celtics.

Rondo's road to Miami was way, way easier than Westbrook's
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: mgent on August 26, 2012, 07:54:49 PM
This is what it takes for a PG:

19 points, 11 assists, 4 rebounds, 35 mpg, 51% FG, 44% 3pt (2 per game), 92% FT, 63% TS, 58% eFG

12 points, 12 assists, 5 rebounds, 37 mpg, 45% FG, 24% 3pt (.2 per game), 60% FT, 48% TS, 46% eFG

That's Rondo.


Still he could be MVP in 2013.....Finals MVP.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: BballTim on August 26, 2012, 08:16:50 PM
Rondo is a pretty big longshot for MVP, since he's behind for sure LeBron, Durant, Paul, Howard, Westbrook (Westbrook's numbers are way prettier, that matters)..

I'd say if his PPG can top 16 and he continues with 11-12 APG, he's got a shot. Celtics have got to do well, and he can't miss many games though.

  I don't think Rondo will win the MVP but he's finished higher in the voting that Westbrook has in each of the last 2 years, I doubt he's "for sure" behind him in the race.

Yeah, 'for sure' is probably a little strong. Westbrook's playoffs were better than Rondo's, but Rondo has the benefit of being the most talented guy on his team, and everyone knows it.

  I would disagree that Westbrook had a better playoffs than Rondo.

I think there is a pretty valid case to be made that Rondo had a better overall playoffs. I think Westbrook's degree of difficulty was significantly harder, but Rondo can't control that and they both lost to the Heat.

  With all the injuries the Celts had to deal with in the playoffs I don't see how Westbrook's degree of difficulty was significantly harder.

You don't see how it was less difficult for an injury plagued Celtics team to beat the also injury ridden Hawks and Sixers (not injury ridden) to make it to the conference finals than it was for the Thunder to go through the Mavericks, Lakers, and Spurs?

  You're saying you watched OKC dismantle the Mavs and Lakers and were thinking about what a difficult time they were having? Did you feel that the Lakers were some kind of powerhouse when they barely escaped the first round?

I can tell you with every certainty that the Lakers, Spurs, or Mavs all make it out of the first in the East (assuming they're not facing the Heat or Cs), and the Spurs or Lakers likely advance to the Conference Finals.

I mean, just cuz the Thunder whooped on them doesn't mean that they wouldn't have whooped on us or the Heat. Matchups matter quite a bit.

But empirically the Lakers and Spurs at least were head and shoulders above anyone in the East excepting the Heat and post-allstar celtics.

Rondo's road to Miami was way, way easier than Westbrook's

  And Westbrook's team was way, way healthier than Rondo's. When you factor in health, I'd say the difference in Rondo's and Westbrook's teammates was greater than the difference in the success of the teams.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: BballTim on August 26, 2012, 08:21:55 PM
This is what it takes for a PG:

19 points, 11 assists, 4 rebounds, 35 mpg, 51% FG, 44% 3pt (2 per game), 92% FT, 63% TS, 58% eFG

  Does that mean that only one pg's ever been MVP, or that every pg that's been MVP has shot at least 44% on threes and 92% from the line? How about 11 assists a game? People should explain that requirement to whoever voted for Rose.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: mgent on August 26, 2012, 08:42:54 PM
This is what it takes for a PG:

19 points, 11 assists, 4 rebounds, 35 mpg, 51% FG, 44% 3pt (2 per game), 92% FT, 63% TS, 58% eFG

  Does that mean that only one pg's ever been MVP, or that every pg that's been MVP has shot at least 44% on threes and 92% from the line? How about 11 assists a game? People should explain that requirement to whoever voted for Rose.
Yeah there's only ever been one MVP PG you got me.

....I was giving an example of the last pass first PG.  If you think 25 points and 6 made FT a game is healthier goal for Rondo next season more power to you.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: bfrombleacher on August 26, 2012, 08:54:10 PM
This is what it takes for a PG:

19 points, 11 assists, 4 rebounds, 35 mpg, 51% FG, 44% 3pt (2 per game), 92% FT, 63% TS, 58% eFG

  Does that mean that only one pg's ever been MVP, or that every pg that's been MVP has shot at least 44% on threes and 92% from the line? How about 11 assists a game? People should explain that requirement to whoever voted for Rose.
Yeah there's only ever been one MVP PG you got me.

....I was giving an example of the last pass first PG.  If you think 25 points and 6 made FT a game is healthier goal for Rondo next season more power to you.

Wait...are those Nash's numbers?
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: Carhole on August 26, 2012, 09:21:32 PM
Boussard's exact words were "it could happen".  To be honest though, I still think that KG is our most impactful player (just look at the plus/minus numbers for KG on the court vs. off).

KG is an MVP candidate (or should be) if he just stays healthy and doesn't wear down too much through the season.  In order for Rondo to be a legitimate MVP candidate, he would need to dramatically improve his shooting, forcing teams to defend him honestly.

  The coach of every team we faced in the playoffs talked about trying to contain Rondo as a top or the top priority of their defenses. That's probably more meaningful than how much they worry about his jump shooting.

You watched that philly series and honestly thought their defense's top priority was "stopping rondo" ?

Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: Yoki_IsTheName on August 26, 2012, 10:25:42 PM
It's possible. He might need to up his scoring a bit though (around 15-17 points/game) and still has the assist average at around 10-11.

Celtics also need to be one of the top 5 teams in the NBA (not just the East) to convince people.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: BballTim on August 26, 2012, 10:34:00 PM
Boussard's exact words were "it could happen".  To be honest though, I still think that KG is our most impactful player (just look at the plus/minus numbers for KG on the court vs. off).

KG is an MVP candidate (or should be) if he just stays healthy and doesn't wear down too much through the season.  In order for Rondo to be a legitimate MVP candidate, he would need to dramatically improve his shooting, forcing teams to defend him honestly.

  The coach of every team we faced in the playoffs talked about trying to contain Rondo as a top or the top priority of their defenses. That's probably more meaningful than how much they worry about his jump shooting.

You watched that philly series and honestly thought their defense's top priority was "stopping rondo" ?

  Absolutely. Why did you think stopping Rondo *wasn't* a priority for Philly? Wasn't that the first series in nba history where someone had 13 or more assists in each of the first 5 games of the series?

 In any case, here's Collins after game 3:

http://greenstreet.weei.com/sports/boston/basketball/celtics/2012/05/18/doug-collins-we-have-to-meet-the-challenge-of-rondo/

 "PHILADELPHIA — A lot of coaches say they want to make life difficult on Rajon Rondo.

But Doug Collins said Thursday that if his Sixers don’t do a better job of putting up a fight against the superstar point guard in Game 4, his team essentially has no shot.

“We never got Rondo stopped all night long,” Collins said of Rondo. “He took the ball wherever he wanted to take it on the floor. We have to take that challenge. We have to take on the challenge that he’s the guy that going to push on the [fast] break, he’s going to get the ball up the floor, he’s going to make the passes, he’s going to be the guy who’s initiating most of their stuff. We have to take the challenge of doing a better job on him.”"

  And here's an article from after game 5:

 http://www.csnphilly.com/basketball-philadelphia-sixers/sixers-talk/Sixers-Game-6-plan-to-stop-Rondo-a-succe?blockID=713540

  "But rather than simply moving Andre Iguodala, the Sixers’ best perimeter defender, over to guard Rondo, Collins put top assistant Michael Curry in charge of putting together the plan to stop the point guard."

 
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: GreenFaith1819 on August 26, 2012, 11:09:56 PM
I think it's a long shot, but it's certainly within him.

If he could put similar numbers during the regular season like he's posted in the playoffs the last few yrs, what is there to stop him from winning MVP next season?
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: indeedproceed on August 27, 2012, 12:06:13 AM
Boussard's exact words were "it could happen".  To be honest though, I still think that KG is our most impactful player (just look at the plus/minus numbers for KG on the court vs. off).

KG is an MVP candidate (or should be) if he just stays healthy and doesn't wear down too much through the season.  In order for Rondo to be a legitimate MVP candidate, he would need to dramatically improve his shooting, forcing teams to defend him honestly.

  The coach of every team we faced in the playoffs talked about trying to contain Rondo as a top or the top priority of their defenses. That's probably more meaningful than how much they worry about his jump shooting.

You watched that philly series and honestly thought their defense's top priority was "stopping rondo" ?

  Absolutely. Why did you think stopping Rondo *wasn't* a priority for Philly? Wasn't that the first series in nba history where someone had 13 or more assists in each of the first 5 games of the series?

 In any case, here's Collins after game 3:

http://greenstreet.weei.com/sports/boston/basketball/celtics/2012/05/18/doug-collins-we-have-to-meet-the-challenge-of-rondo/

 "PHILADELPHIA — A lot of coaches say they want to make life difficult on Rajon Rondo.

But Doug Collins said Thursday that if his Sixers don’t do a better job of putting up a fight against the superstar point guard in Game 4, his team essentially has no shot.

“We never got Rondo stopped all night long,” Collins said of Rondo. “He took the ball wherever he wanted to take it on the floor. We have to take that challenge. We have to take on the challenge that he’s the guy that going to push on the [fast] break, he’s going to get the ball up the floor, he’s going to make the passes, he’s going to be the guy who’s initiating most of their stuff. We have to take the challenge of doing a better job on him.”"

  And here's an article from after game 5:

 http://www.csnphilly.com/basketball-philadelphia-sixers/sixers-talk/Sixers-Game-6-plan-to-stop-Rondo-a-succe?blockID=713540

  "But rather than simply moving Andre Iguodala, the Sixers’ best perimeter defender, over to guard Rondo, Collins put top assistant Michael Curry in charge of putting together the plan to stop the point guard."

I think every team has to gameplan around Rondo if they want to win.

But for this tangential argument, I don't think any of that proves stopping Rondo was a number 1 priority. Especially since they kept trusting Jrue Holiday to stop him when he obviously wasn't.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: Kane3387 on August 27, 2012, 12:36:31 AM
I love this.

Quote
I think every team has to gameplan around Rondo if they want to win.

But for this tangential argument, I don't think any of that proves stopping Rondo was a number 1 priority. Especially since they kept trusting Jrue Holiday to stop him when he obviously wasn't.

Isn't he a top three offensive pg in the NBA? Lol

If Rondo puts up double digit triple doubles this season, the celtics compete for best record like SA has the past couple years, and he puts up a Nash/J Kidd stat line like those two did when they were finalists for the MVP then he will be right there.

Looks like a lot above but it's all possibility. No one's roster is as similar to SA like ours. Rondo can put up 15, 11, and 5 with over 2 steals. The triple doubles will be the hard part, but he had four in the 20 post season alone. With 82 games I think ten is a possibility with how his game and role are evolving. 
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: drza44 on August 27, 2012, 12:55:24 AM
It's an interesting question.  Rondo is hands down not the most valuable player on the Celtics...that's Kevin Garnett.  But Garnett has absolutely zero chance at garnering national attention unless both Rondo and Pierce get hurt this year.  Rondo, on the other hand, is square in the public eye both nationally and among fans.  So, as ironic as it is, I do think Rondo is probably the biggest potential MVP candidate of this team...even though he's not actually the MVP of the team.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: indeedproceed on August 27, 2012, 01:02:33 AM
I love this.

Quote
I think every team has to gameplan around Rondo if they want to win.

But for this tangential argument, I don't think any of that proves stopping Rondo was a number 1 priority. Especially since they kept trusting Jrue Holiday to stop him when he obviously wasn't.

Isn't he a top three offensive pg in the NBA? Lol

Rondo or Jrue? I'm assuming you mean Rondo.

And...I don't know if he is or isn't. He's not even a top 10 scoring pg, but he'a the best or near the best passing PG in the league.

Chris Paul is a better offensive player, after that, I'm not sure. So much of what Rondo brings is the passing.

If I was asked, 'Pick any PG in the league, they've gotta be your best offensive player' I'm really having a tough time there making a top 3.

Paul
Williams
?

Rondo, Nash, Westbrook, Parker, Curry (if healthy), Irving all have their appeal. The rest of the squad is so critical.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: indeedproceed on August 27, 2012, 01:09:33 AM
It's an interesting question.  Rondo is hands down not the most valuable player on the Celtics...that's Kevin Garnett.  But Garnett has absolutely zero chance at garnering national attention unless both Rondo and Pierce get hurt this year.  Rondo, on the other hand, is square in the public eye both nationally and among fans.  So, as ironic as it is, I do think Rondo is probably the biggest potential MVP candidate of this team...even though he's not actually the MVP of the team.

Kevin Garnett defensively is more important to the celtics offensively. People always say, 'Rondo/Nash/Lebron/Paul' makes everyone better offensively', but what they mean is that they consistently make life easier for people offensively, make it easier for them to make shots.

They also say 'Dwight Howard makes everyone better defensively' but what they mean is that KG makes everyone better by covering up for their mistakes with his uber elite rim defense and help defense.

Kevin Garnett actually MAKES EVERYONE PLAY HARDER. He's offering elite defense and über elite help defense, but who else in the league actually ups your effort level by just being on the team?
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: bfrombleacher on August 27, 2012, 01:31:22 AM
Kevin Garnett actually MAKES EVERYONE PLAY HARDER.

Rondo has a little of that too. If only he could do it without breaking an arm or throwing himself all over the floor.

People say he's improved as a vocal leader. He also has that KG competitive attitude (call it bad sportsmanship or chippiness but it's good to have this on your side). If he could do these things more...maybe?
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: indeedproceed on August 27, 2012, 01:45:39 AM
Kevin Garnett actually MAKES EVERYONE PLAY HARDER.

Rondo has a little of that too. If only he could do it without breaking an arm or throwing himself all over the floor.

People say he's improved as a vocal leader. He also has that KG competitive attitude (call it bad sportsmanship or chippiness but it's good to have this on your side). If he could do these things more...maybe?

Rondo may have improved as a vocal leader, but that's in the context of being on a team with 3 other (2, now) 'vocal leaders'.

I don't think Rondo holds a candle to KG in terms of being able to motivate the team into playing harder. Honestly I'm not sure who else in the league does. Kobe is a good leader, but he does it through fear, LeBron is a good leader too (as is D-Wade), but it's not like KG. Lebron seems to inspire comradity, as much as anything else. Tim Duncan I think inspires confidence and poise, while Paul...I don't know what he inspires. Teammates seem to like him.

Maybe Durant will get there, but he's young yet.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: bfrombleacher on August 27, 2012, 02:02:40 AM
Kevin Garnett actually MAKES EVERYONE PLAY HARDER.

Rondo has a little of that too. If only he could do it without breaking an arm or throwing himself all over the floor.

People say he's improved as a vocal leader. He also has that KG competitive attitude (call it bad sportsmanship or chippiness but it's good to have this on your side). If he could do these things more...maybe?

Rondo may have improved as a vocal leader, but that's in the context of being on a team with 3 other (2, now) 'vocal leaders'.

I don't think Rondo holds a candle to KG in terms of being able to motivate the team into playing harder. Honestly I'm not sure who else in the league does. Kobe is a good leader, but he does it through fear, LeBron is a good leader too (as is D-Wade), but it's not like KG. Lebron seems to inspire comradity, as much as anything else. Tim Duncan I think inspires confidence and poise, while Paul...I don't know what he inspires. Teammates seem to like him.

Maybe Durant will get there, but he's young yet.

I think KG makes everyone feel like they're not just playing basketball as a job, but playing basketball for their life (sounds dumb but I feel like it's an apt description).

I personally think Rondo does have a little of that. When his head is in the game, he shuts out everything else and that is very infectious (like KG).

KG directs the defense, which is something Rondo doesn't quite do. But when Rondo played with AB, the backcourt defense was phenomenal and, again for the lack of a better word, infectious. I'm certainly hoping this continues.

That said, I don't think there'll be anyone quite like KG anytime soon. But I think Rondo might be the closest we'll get.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: j804 on August 27, 2012, 02:27:23 AM
Broussard says something I can finally agree with

lol
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: mgent on August 27, 2012, 03:02:07 AM
Kevin Garnett actually MAKES EVERYONE PLAY HARDER. He's offering elite defense and über elite help defense, but who else in the league actually ups your effort level by just being on the team?
Fits all of the above.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PIxuhicp9vY&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQZLzfAzfOY&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KfQyaTLMYs

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bUlLrdWRBlc&feature=related
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: BballTim on August 27, 2012, 06:43:22 AM
It's an interesting question.  Rondo is hands down not the most valuable player on the Celtics...that's Kevin Garnett.  But Garnett has absolutely zero chance at garnering national attention unless both Rondo and Pierce get hurt this year.  Rondo, on the other hand, is square in the public eye both nationally and among fans.  So, as ironic as it is, I do think Rondo is probably the biggest potential MVP candidate of this team...even though he's not actually the MVP of the team.

  Garnett won't get much national attention if PP and Rondo are hurt because he's really not going to be able to do much on his own offensively at this stage in his career. I think that KG's the MVP in terms of being the most indispensible because there's nobody else on the roster that can replace what he does but I don't think that's the criteria the voters use.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: BballTim on August 27, 2012, 07:19:45 AM
Boussard's exact words were "it could happen".  To be honest though, I still think that KG is our most impactful player (just look at the plus/minus numbers for KG on the court vs. off).

KG is an MVP candidate (or should be) if he just stays healthy and doesn't wear down too much through the season.  In order for Rondo to be a legitimate MVP candidate, he would need to dramatically improve his shooting, forcing teams to defend him honestly.

  The coach of every team we faced in the playoffs talked about trying to contain Rondo as a top or the top priority of their defenses. That's probably more meaningful than how much they worry about his jump shooting.

You watched that philly series and honestly thought their defense's top priority was "stopping rondo" ?

  Absolutely. Why did you think stopping Rondo *wasn't* a priority for Philly? Wasn't that the first series in nba history where someone had 13 or more assists in each of the first 5 games of the series?

 In any case, here's Collins after game 3:

http://greenstreet.weei.com/sports/boston/basketball/celtics/2012/05/18/doug-collins-we-have-to-meet-the-challenge-of-rondo/

 "PHILADELPHIA — A lot of coaches say they want to make life difficult on Rajon Rondo.

But Doug Collins said Thursday that if his Sixers don’t do a better job of putting up a fight against the superstar point guard in Game 4, his team essentially has no shot.

“We never got Rondo stopped all night long,” Collins said of Rondo. “He took the ball wherever he wanted to take it on the floor. We have to take that challenge. We have to take on the challenge that he’s the guy that going to push on the [fast] break, he’s going to get the ball up the floor, he’s going to make the passes, he’s going to be the guy who’s initiating most of their stuff. We have to take the challenge of doing a better job on him.”"

  And here's an article from after game 5:

 http://www.csnphilly.com/basketball-philadelphia-sixers/sixers-talk/Sixers-Game-6-plan-to-stop-Rondo-a-succe?blockID=713540

  "But rather than simply moving Andre Iguodala, the Sixers’ best perimeter defender, over to guard Rondo, Collins put top assistant Michael Curry in charge of putting together the plan to stop the point guard."

I think every team has to gameplan around Rondo if they want to win.

But for this tangential argument, I don't think any of that proves stopping Rondo was a number 1 priority. Especially since they kept trusting Jrue Holiday to stop him when he obviously wasn't.

  Aside from the fact that Turner played Rondo a lot and that there's more involved in containing Rondo than who covers him in the half court, I'd say a team changing their defensive schemes in order to slow down a certain player shows that stopping that player's a high priority for that team.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: chambers on August 27, 2012, 09:31:09 AM
It's possible, no doubt.

My biggest problem with the Rondo/MVP talk is that for Rondo to contend for the MVP, his injury risk would increase ten fold and he'd almost certainly miss a huge chunk of time with a serious hip/knee issue.
I'd rather he keep it in the bag until the playoffs.
I guess he may feel he'll have to carry us with so many youngsters and Ray gone. He's officially one of a Boston big three now and that will have some kind of psychological effect- at least in the first half of the season.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: indeedproceed on August 27, 2012, 10:04:17 AM
Boussard's exact words were "it could happen".  To be honest though, I still think that KG is our most impactful player (just look at the plus/minus numbers for KG on the court vs. off).

KG is an MVP candidate (or should be) if he just stays healthy and doesn't wear down too much through the season.  In order for Rondo to be a legitimate MVP candidate, he would need to dramatically improve his shooting, forcing teams to defend him honestly.

  The coach of every team we faced in the playoffs talked about trying to contain Rondo as a top or the top priority of their defenses. That's probably more meaningful than how much they worry about his jump shooting.

You watched that philly series and honestly thought their defense's top priority was "stopping rondo" ?

  Absolutely. Why did you think stopping Rondo *wasn't* a priority for Philly? Wasn't that the first series in nba history where someone had 13 or more assists in each of the first 5 games of the series?

 In any case, here's Collins after game 3:

http://greenstreet.weei.com/sports/boston/basketball/celtics/2012/05/18/doug-collins-we-have-to-meet-the-challenge-of-rondo/

 "PHILADELPHIA — A lot of coaches say they want to make life difficult on Rajon Rondo.

But Doug Collins said Thursday that if his Sixers don’t do a better job of putting up a fight against the superstar point guard in Game 4, his team essentially has no shot.

“We never got Rondo stopped all night long,” Collins said of Rondo. “He took the ball wherever he wanted to take it on the floor. We have to take that challenge. We have to take on the challenge that he’s the guy that going to push on the [fast] break, he’s going to get the ball up the floor, he’s going to make the passes, he’s going to be the guy who’s initiating most of their stuff. We have to take the challenge of doing a better job on him.”"

  And here's an article from after game 5:

 http://www.csnphilly.com/basketball-philadelphia-sixers/sixers-talk/Sixers-Game-6-plan-to-stop-Rondo-a-succe?blockID=713540

  "But rather than simply moving Andre Iguodala, the Sixers’ best perimeter defender, over to guard Rondo, Collins put top assistant Michael Curry in charge of putting together the plan to stop the point guard."

I think every team has to gameplan around Rondo if they want to win.

But for this tangential argument, I don't think any of that proves stopping Rondo was a number 1 priority. Especially since they kept trusting Jrue Holiday to stop him when he obviously wasn't.

  Aside from the fact that Turner played Rondo a lot and that there's more involved in containing Rondo than who covers him in the half court, I'd say a team changing their defensive schemes in order to slow down a certain player shows that stopping that player's a high priority for that team.

High priority sure. You said number 1 priority.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: BballTim on August 27, 2012, 10:08:09 AM
Boussard's exact words were "it could happen".  To be honest though, I still think that KG is our most impactful player (just look at the plus/minus numbers for KG on the court vs. off).

KG is an MVP candidate (or should be) if he just stays healthy and doesn't wear down too much through the season.  In order for Rondo to be a legitimate MVP candidate, he would need to dramatically improve his shooting, forcing teams to defend him honestly.

  The coach of every team we faced in the playoffs talked about trying to contain Rondo as a top or the top priority of their defenses. That's probably more meaningful than how much they worry about his jump shooting.

You watched that philly series and honestly thought their defense's top priority was "stopping rondo" ?

  Absolutely. Why did you think stopping Rondo *wasn't* a priority for Philly? Wasn't that the first series in nba history where someone had 13 or more assists in each of the first 5 games of the series?

 In any case, here's Collins after game 3:

http://greenstreet.weei.com/sports/boston/basketball/celtics/2012/05/18/doug-collins-we-have-to-meet-the-challenge-of-rondo/

 "PHILADELPHIA — A lot of coaches say they want to make life difficult on Rajon Rondo.

But Doug Collins said Thursday that if his Sixers don’t do a better job of putting up a fight against the superstar point guard in Game 4, his team essentially has no shot.

“We never got Rondo stopped all night long,” Collins said of Rondo. “He took the ball wherever he wanted to take it on the floor. We have to take that challenge. We have to take on the challenge that he’s the guy that going to push on the [fast] break, he’s going to get the ball up the floor, he’s going to make the passes, he’s going to be the guy who’s initiating most of their stuff. We have to take the challenge of doing a better job on him.”"

  And here's an article from after game 5:

 http://www.csnphilly.com/basketball-philadelphia-sixers/sixers-talk/Sixers-Game-6-plan-to-stop-Rondo-a-succe?blockID=713540

  "But rather than simply moving Andre Iguodala, the Sixers’ best perimeter defender, over to guard Rondo, Collins put top assistant Michael Curry in charge of putting together the plan to stop the point guard."

I think every team has to gameplan around Rondo if they want to win.

But for this tangential argument, I don't think any of that proves stopping Rondo was a number 1 priority. Especially since they kept trusting Jrue Holiday to stop him when he obviously wasn't.

  Aside from the fact that Turner played Rondo a lot and that there's more involved in containing Rondo than who covers him in the half court, I'd say a team changing their defensive schemes in order to slow down a certain player shows that stopping that player's a high priority for that team.

High priority sure. You said number 1 priority.

  I said "a top or the top priority".
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: BballTim on August 27, 2012, 10:52:25 AM
This is what it takes for a PG:

19 points, 11 assists, 4 rebounds, 35 mpg, 51% FG, 44% 3pt (2 per game), 92% FT, 63% TS, 58% eFG

  Does that mean that only one pg's ever been MVP, or that every pg that's been MVP has shot at least 44% on threes and 92% from the line? How about 11 assists a game? People should explain that requirement to whoever voted for Rose.
Yeah there's only ever been one MVP PG you got me.

....I was giving an example of the last pass first PG.  If you think 25 points and 6 made FT a game is healthier goal for Rondo next season more power to you.

  What about the year before, when Nash scored fewer points, had fewer rebounds and had lower fg%, 3pfg%, ft%, TS% and efg%? Was he unable to garner any attention in the MVP race?
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: indeedproceed on August 27, 2012, 10:56:54 AM
Boussard's exact words were "it could happen".  To be honest though, I still think that KG is our most impactful player (just look at the plus/minus numbers for KG on the court vs. off).

KG is an MVP candidate (or should be) if he just stays healthy and doesn't wear down too much through the season.  In order for Rondo to be a legitimate MVP candidate, he would need to dramatically improve his shooting, forcing teams to defend him honestly.

  The coach of every team we faced in the playoffs talked about trying to contain Rondo as a top or the top priority of their defenses. That's probably more meaningful than how much they worry about his jump shooting.

You watched that philly series and honestly thought their defense's top priority was "stopping rondo" ?

  Absolutely. Why did you think stopping Rondo *wasn't* a priority for Philly? Wasn't that the first series in nba history where someone had 13 or more assists in each of the first 5 games of the series?

 In any case, here's Collins after game 3:

http://greenstreet.weei.com/sports/boston/basketball/celtics/2012/05/18/doug-collins-we-have-to-meet-the-challenge-of-rondo/

 "PHILADELPHIA — A lot of coaches say they want to make life difficult on Rajon Rondo.

But Doug Collins said Thursday that if his Sixers don’t do a better job of putting up a fight against the superstar point guard in Game 4, his team essentially has no shot.

“We never got Rondo stopped all night long,” Collins said of Rondo. “He took the ball wherever he wanted to take it on the floor. We have to take that challenge. We have to take on the challenge that he’s the guy that going to push on the [fast] break, he’s going to get the ball up the floor, he’s going to make the passes, he’s going to be the guy who’s initiating most of their stuff. We have to take the challenge of doing a better job on him.”"

  And here's an article from after game 5:

 http://www.csnphilly.com/basketball-philadelphia-sixers/sixers-talk/Sixers-Game-6-plan-to-stop-Rondo-a-succe?blockID=713540

  "But rather than simply moving Andre Iguodala, the Sixers’ best perimeter defender, over to guard Rondo, Collins put top assistant Michael Curry in charge of putting together the plan to stop the point guard."

I think every team has to gameplan around Rondo if they want to win.

But for this tangential argument, I don't think any of that proves stopping Rondo was a number 1 priority. Especially since they kept trusting Jrue Holiday to stop him when he obviously wasn't.

  Aside from the fact that Turner played Rondo a lot and that there's more involved in containing Rondo than who covers him in the half court, I'd say a team changing their defensive schemes in order to slow down a certain player shows that stopping that player's a high priority for that team.

High priority sure. You said number 1 priority.

  I said "a top or the top priority".

He said, 'did you think it..was the top priority."

you said "absolutely"

You will acknowledge my semantics victory here Tim. You will. 
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: indeedproceed on August 27, 2012, 11:01:54 AM
This is what it takes for a PG:

19 points, 11 assists, 4 rebounds, 35 mpg, 51% FG, 44% 3pt (2 per game), 92% FT, 63% TS, 58% eFG

  Does that mean that only one pg's ever been MVP, or that every pg that's been MVP has shot at least 44% on threes and 92% from the line? How about 11 assists a game? People should explain that requirement to whoever voted for Rose.
Yeah there's only ever been one MVP PG you got me.

....I was giving an example of the last pass first PG.  If you think 25 points and 6 made FT a game is healthier goal for Rondo next season more power to you.

  What about the year before, when Nash scored fewer points, had fewer rebounds and had lower fg%, 3pfg%, ft%, TS% and efg%? Was he unable to garner any attention in the MVP race?

Not much lower in a statistically relevant way, excepting rebounds.

But that said, nearly everyone agrees that's the MVP he didn't deserve. It got made right though in 06-07 when he did deserve one.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: dark_lord on August 27, 2012, 11:02:43 AM
anything is possible, but id be shocked if he ever won it.  it would take:
-an unbelievable season from rondo
-the celtics being a top 2 team in the east
- injuries or poor seasons from a few other superstars
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: Eja117 on August 27, 2012, 11:06:50 AM
anything is possible, but id be shocked if he ever won it.  it would take:
-an unbelievable season from rondo
-the celtics being a top 2 team in the east
- injuries or poor seasons from a few other superstars
This.....I think Broussard maybe just threw something out there hoping to get some credit later if it sticks
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: footey on August 27, 2012, 11:10:26 AM
ondo is the eal deal.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: BballTim on August 27, 2012, 11:13:45 AM
Boussard's exact words were "it could happen".  To be honest though, I still think that KG is our most impactful player (just look at the plus/minus numbers for KG on the court vs. off).

KG is an MVP candidate (or should be) if he just stays healthy and doesn't wear down too much through the season.  In order for Rondo to be a legitimate MVP candidate, he would need to dramatically improve his shooting, forcing teams to defend him honestly.

  The coach of every team we faced in the playoffs talked about trying to contain Rondo as a top or the top priority of their defenses. That's probably more meaningful than how much they worry about his jump shooting.

You watched that philly series and honestly thought their defense's top priority was "stopping rondo" ?

  Absolutely. Why did you think stopping Rondo *wasn't* a priority for Philly? Wasn't that the first series in nba history where someone had 13 or more assists in each of the first 5 games of the series?

 In any case, here's Collins after game 3:

http://greenstreet.weei.com/sports/boston/basketball/celtics/2012/05/18/doug-collins-we-have-to-meet-the-challenge-of-rondo/

 "PHILADELPHIA — A lot of coaches say they want to make life difficult on Rajon Rondo.

But Doug Collins said Thursday that if his Sixers don’t do a better job of putting up a fight against the superstar point guard in Game 4, his team essentially has no shot.

“We never got Rondo stopped all night long,” Collins said of Rondo. “He took the ball wherever he wanted to take it on the floor. We have to take that challenge. We have to take on the challenge that he’s the guy that going to push on the [fast] break, he’s going to get the ball up the floor, he’s going to make the passes, he’s going to be the guy who’s initiating most of their stuff. We have to take the challenge of doing a better job on him.”"

  And here's an article from after game 5:

 http://www.csnphilly.com/basketball-philadelphia-sixers/sixers-talk/Sixers-Game-6-plan-to-stop-Rondo-a-succe?blockID=713540

  "But rather than simply moving Andre Iguodala, the Sixers’ best perimeter defender, over to guard Rondo, Collins put top assistant Michael Curry in charge of putting together the plan to stop the point guard."

I think every team has to gameplan around Rondo if they want to win.

But for this tangential argument, I don't think any of that proves stopping Rondo was a number 1 priority. Especially since they kept trusting Jrue Holiday to stop him when he obviously wasn't.

  Aside from the fact that Turner played Rondo a lot and that there's more involved in containing Rondo than who covers him in the half court, I'd say a team changing their defensive schemes in order to slow down a certain player shows that stopping that player's a high priority for that team.

High priority sure. You said number 1 priority.

  I said "a top or the top priority".

He said, 'did you think it..was the top priority."

you said "absolutely"

You will acknowledge my semantics victory here Tim. You will.

  It should be a semantics tie. You said "a number 1 priority" as opposed to "the number 1 priority". "a number 1 priority" implies that there could be other number 1 priorities. I chose to ignore that instead of getting caught up in semantics, just like I paid less attention to the significance of someone saying "the top priority" when responding to my post which said "a top or the top priority".

  I'm annoying enough when I don't pick apart posts to that degree, thank you very much.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: BballTim on August 27, 2012, 11:19:47 AM
This is what it takes for a PG:

19 points, 11 assists, 4 rebounds, 35 mpg, 51% FG, 44% 3pt (2 per game), 92% FT, 63% TS, 58% eFG

  Does that mean that only one pg's ever been MVP, or that every pg that's been MVP has shot at least 44% on threes and 92% from the line? How about 11 assists a game? People should explain that requirement to whoever voted for Rose.
Yeah there's only ever been one MVP PG you got me.

....I was giving an example of the last pass first PG.  If you think 25 points and 6 made FT a game is healthier goal for Rondo next season more power to you.

  What about the year before, when Nash scored fewer points, had fewer rebounds and had lower fg%, 3pfg%, ft%, TS% and efg%? Was he unable to garner any attention in the MVP race?

Not much lower in a statistically relevant way, excepting rebounds.

But that said, nearly everyone agrees that's the MVP he didn't deserve. It got made right though in 06-07 when he did deserve one.

  3 points a game is statistically relevant. And "deserves the MVP" is fairly nebulous, kind of like "deserves to be an all-star".
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: indeedproceed on August 27, 2012, 11:36:53 AM
This is what it takes for a PG:

19 points, 11 assists, 4 rebounds, 35 mpg, 51% FG, 44% 3pt (2 per game), 92% FT, 63% TS, 58% eFG

  Does that mean that only one pg's ever been MVP, or that every pg that's been MVP has shot at least 44% on threes and 92% from the line? How about 11 assists a game? People should explain that requirement to whoever voted for Rose.
Yeah there's only ever been one MVP PG you got me.

....I was giving an example of the last pass first PG.  If you think 25 points and 6 made FT a game is healthier goal for Rondo next season more power to you.

  What about the year before, when Nash scored fewer points, had fewer rebounds and had lower fg%, 3pfg%, ft%, TS% and efg%? Was he unable to garner any attention in the MVP race?

Not much lower in a statistically relevant way, excepting rebounds.

But that said, nearly everyone agrees that's the MVP he didn't deserve. It got made right though in 06-07 when he did deserve one.

  3 points a game is statistically relevant. And "deserves the MVP" is fairly nebulous, kind of like "deserves to be an all-star".

Yeah the 3 points per game was significant.

But the 'deserves the MVP' that season wasn't nebulous at all. People just didn't want to give the award to Shaq. Shaq averaged 22 and 10 that year for Miami, and took a team that finished 42-40 to 59-23.

You can find about a bagillion articles about that 04-05 year. That, along with 2011's Derrick Rose are heralded as two 'we just didn't wanna put the right guy in there' awards.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: BballTim on August 27, 2012, 12:08:25 PM
This is what it takes for a PG:

19 points, 11 assists, 4 rebounds, 35 mpg, 51% FG, 44% 3pt (2 per game), 92% FT, 63% TS, 58% eFG

  Does that mean that only one pg's ever been MVP, or that every pg that's been MVP has shot at least 44% on threes and 92% from the line? How about 11 assists a game? People should explain that requirement to whoever voted for Rose.
Yeah there's only ever been one MVP PG you got me.

....I was giving an example of the last pass first PG.  If you think 25 points and 6 made FT a game is healthier goal for Rondo next season more power to you.

  What about the year before, when Nash scored fewer points, had fewer rebounds and had lower fg%, 3pfg%, ft%, TS% and efg%? Was he unable to garner any attention in the MVP race?

Not much lower in a statistically relevant way, excepting rebounds.

But that said, nearly everyone agrees that's the MVP he didn't deserve. It got made right though in 06-07 when he did deserve one.

  3 points a game is statistically relevant. And "deserves the MVP" is fairly nebulous, kind of like "deserves to be an all-star".

Yeah the 3 points per game was significant.

But the 'deserves the MVP' that season wasn't nebulous at all. People just didn't want to give the award to Shaq. Shaq averaged 22 and 10 that year for Miami, and took a team that finished 42-40 to 59-23.

You can find about a bagillion articles about that 04-05 year. That, along with 2011's Derrick Rose are heralded as two 'we just didn't wanna put the right guy in there' awards.

  You could say the same about Dirk's year. Again, it's all nebulous. Nearing or at the ends of their careers, should Nash have as many MVPs as TD and more than Shaq, Kobe or KG?
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: mgent on August 27, 2012, 12:41:38 PM
Are we just going to ignore the difference between a declining Shaq and LeBron James in his prime (with a much older, much less assertive Dwyane Wade)?



The point is, MVPs are scorers.  Obviously I didn't have to bring up Rose to make that point.  Nash on the other hand proves you don't have to be a top scorer, you can do it with assists.  The catch is, he was still arguably the best offensive player in the league.  He did other things offensively than score and pass: he spaced the floor like Ray Allen, he drew lots of traps and double teams, and could draw the full attention of the defense from anywhere within 24 feet.

Now when it actually came to scoring, he's in a league of his own in terms of efficiency.  Rondo looks like a D-leaguer in comparison and has no hope of ever even coming close.  History tells us that elite rebounding and defense just doesn't make up for that.

If you're not taking enough attempts to be near the top of the league in scoring, you better be doing it better than almost everyone else if you want an MVP these days.  It's 90% offense, and Rondo simply isn't a comparable offensive player to Nash in his prime.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: mgent on August 27, 2012, 12:49:48 PM
If anything Dirk strengthens the case for Rondo not making MVP.  You can win simply by being a beast on offense and not doing much else at all.  We can talk all day about how good Rondo is as an overall player, but the award is only about one thing.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: bdm860 on August 27, 2012, 01:29:05 PM
Are we just going to ignore the difference between a declining Shaq and LeBron James in his prime (with a much older, much less assertive Dwyane Wade)?



The point is, MVPs are scorers.  Obviously I didn't have to bring up Rose to make that point.  Nash on the other hand proves you don't have to be a top scorer, you can do it with assists.  The catch is, he was still arguably the best offensive player in the league.  He did other things offensively than score and pass: he spaced the floor like Ray Allen, he drew lots of traps and double teams, and could draw the full attention of the defense from anywhere within 24 feet.

Now when it actually came to scoring, he's in a league of his own in terms of efficiency.  Rondo looks like a D-leaguer in comparison and has no hope of ever even coming close.  History tells us that elite rebounding and defense just doesn't make up for that.

If you're not taking enough attempts to be near the top of the league in scoring, you better be doing it better than almost everyone else if you want an MVP these days.  It's 90% offense, and Rondo simply isn't a comparable offensive player to Nash in his prime.

Jason Kidd came very close to an MVP in 2002 (2nd to Duncan) averaging 14.7ppg, 9.9 apg, 7.3rpg, and 2.1spg, while shooting 39% fg, 32% 3pg, 81% ft.  Rondo could put up very similar numbers but with a couple more assists and a couple less rebounds.

While a long shot, I don't think it's impossible, what I think it would take:

Close to a full season for Rondo (ideally 80+ games, but at least 75+).

60+ wins from the Celtics.

A flat season from LeBron and Durant (only 55-60 wins, about the same stats from last year with maybe a few small declines, like LeBron only averages 26/6/6, and Durant only puts up 27/7/4, etc.)  Also a minor injury that keeps either out for 10-15 games also helps.  Could happen.  Especially if the LeBron/Heat aren't as motivated after winning it all, and maybe LeBron takes a few less shots to try to get a guy like Ray more involved, same with Durant if Westbrook/Haredn take a bigger role.

Several triple doubles and a lot of big time performances on nationally televised games.  (Like Game 2 vs Miami, do something like that at least 3-4 times on TNT/ESPN/ABC during the season).

And if all that happens, and Rondo puts up for overall stats, something like 14ppg, 11apg, 5rpg, 2spg, 50%+ fg, 70%+ ft.  I could see him finishing top 3, maybe even winning the whole thing.

But the stars have to be lined up perfectly, but everything I mentioned I think is possible of happening (Celtics winning, Rondo healthy, Heat and Thunder just being very good but not dominating, great stats from Rondo, and maybe with Ray out that happens, and status quo or slight declines from LeBron, and adding Ray maybe his stats dip).

Not outside the realm of possibility, but still not likely.

But while there are always exceptions, mgent is mostly right, 99 times out of 100, it takes a dominate offensive player.  I remember the talk about how Ben Wallace was a potential MVP candidate during his and the Pistons prime, the best he ever finished in the voting was 7th with one measly 1st place vote.  Kidd's the only other guy I can think of that wasn't the prototypical scoring machine that ever came close in the recent era.  But it could still happen!  :)
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: BballTim on August 27, 2012, 02:35:10 PM
If anything Dirk strengthens the case for Rondo not making MVP.  You can win simply by being a beast on offense and not doing much else at all.  We can talk all day about how good Rondo is as an overall player, but the award is only about one thing.

  While I don't expect Rondo to win the award, I don't know that I'd call Dirk a beast on offense in a year when he finished 10th-11th in scoring.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: indeedproceed on August 27, 2012, 02:41:54 PM
If anything Dirk strengthens the case for Rondo not making MVP.  You can win simply by being a beast on offense and not doing much else at all.  We can talk all day about how good Rondo is as an overall player, but the award is only about one thing.

  While I don't expect Rondo to win the award, I don't know that I'd call Dirk a beast on offense in a year when he finished 10th-11th in scoring.

Dirk Nowitzki was the best player in the NBA in 2007, and the best offensive player.

You know..until the playoffs.

That notwithstanding, his offensive efficiency numbers were way above board, he was the best player on the best regular season team, and he was shooting 50/40/90.

When was the last time that happened?
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: makaveli on August 27, 2012, 02:56:35 PM
if he stops pick-and-choosing games he wants to play he might pull it off
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: Change on August 27, 2012, 03:00:01 PM
If anything Dirk strengthens the case for Rondo not making MVP.  You can win simply by being a beast on offense and not doing much else at all.  We can talk all day about how good Rondo is as an overall player, but the award is only about one thing.

  While I don't expect Rondo to win the award, I don't know that I'd call Dirk a beast on offense in a year when he finished 10th-11th in scoring.

Dirk Nowitzki was the best player in the NBA in 2007, and the best offensive player.

You know..until the playoffs.

That notwithstanding, his offensive efficiency numbers were way above board, he was the best player on the best regular season team, and he was shooting 50/40/90.

When was the last time that happened?

Steve Nash does it every year. But i think you meant to say, when has 7footer ever had those averages? which is never
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: BballTim on August 27, 2012, 03:01:19 PM
If anything Dirk strengthens the case for Rondo not making MVP.  You can win simply by being a beast on offense and not doing much else at all.  We can talk all day about how good Rondo is as an overall player, but the award is only about one thing.

  While I don't expect Rondo to win the award, I don't know that I'd call Dirk a beast on offense in a year when he finished 10th-11th in scoring.

Dirk Nowitzki was the best player in the NBA in 2007, and the best offensive player.

You know..until the playoffs.

That notwithstanding, his offensive efficiency numbers were way above board, he was the best player on the best regular season team, and he was shooting 50/40/90.

When was the last time that happened?

  I don't think Dirk was ever the best offensive player in the league, let alone the best player. And while he's a great shooter, I think people get way too excited about shooting over 90% from the line. In terms of free throw shooting in his (better) MVP year, I'd say that Nash shooting 92% from the line wasn't any more meaningful then the fact that he wasn't in the top 85 players in terms of fta/game.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: drza44 on August 27, 2012, 03:05:07 PM
It's an interesting question.  Rondo is hands down not the most valuable player on the Celtics...that's Kevin Garnett.  But Garnett has absolutely zero chance at garnering national attention unless both Rondo and Pierce get hurt this year.  Rondo, on the other hand, is square in the public eye both nationally and among fans.  So, as ironic as it is, I do think Rondo is probably the biggest potential MVP candidate of this team...even though he's not actually the MVP of the team.

  Garnett won't get much national attention if PP and Rondo are hurt because he's really not going to be able to do much on his own offensively at this stage in his career. I think that KG's the MVP in terms of being the most indispensible because there's nobody else on the roster that can replace what he does but I don't think that's the criteria the voters use.

If PP and Rondo were both hurt, perhaps.  With this current team I think KG could carry them through a playoff series without both, but over a season the things he'd have to do would wear him down.  Point to you.

But I've actually been in the midst of a pretty in depth convo about what if Rondo or KG went down, how would it affect the team.  And as we've worked through the thought experiment, I'm on record that I think this Celtics team without Rondo (but if everyone else stays fully healthy) would win 55 - 60 games and be a contender for the crown.  But this same team, everyone healthy, but no KG would be on the order of a 35 - 45 win team and maybe get a low-seed for the playoffs but that's about it.

Thinking it through has actually been a pretty fun exercise.  If anyone is interested (or thinks I'm a fool for the estimated records I just posted), I'd love to get a similar conversation going over here as well.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: Who on August 27, 2012, 03:29:25 PM
But this same team, everyone healthy, but no KG would be on the order of a 35 - 45 win team and maybe get a low-seed for the playoffs but that's about it.

This team's big man rotation would be disturbingly bad without Garnett.

It's majorly worrying how little help KG has in the paint from his fellow bigs.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: gotjoker? on August 27, 2012, 03:34:39 PM
I don't like Rondo's chances of ever winning the regular season MVP award.  Let's consider that Tony Parker averaged 18.3 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 7.7 apg and 1.0 spg in sixty games for the San Antonio Spurs this season.  The Spurs finished tied with Chicago for the league's best regular season record.  Parker didn't win the award.  Actually, he placed fifth in the MVP voting but did receive four first place votes.  Conversely, Rondo placed eighth in the MVP voting.  However, he'd received no first place votes.  Rondo averaged 11.9 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 11.7 apg and 1.8 spg in fifty-three games.

Steve Nash has won the MVP award for the regular season twice, 2004-2005 and 2005-2006.  Nash averaged a double-double during both of those seasons.  Like Parker, he'd averaged fifteen points or more.  Moreover, the Phoenix Suns finished the regular season with 50+ wins in those seasons.  Winning 60+ games the first time Nash won the MVP award.

With that said, Rondo would need to average well over fifteen points a game, at least ten assists a game and lead Boston to 50+ wins (probably, more like 60+ wins) during the regular season.  And even this might not be enough to beat out a player such as Kevin Durant, Chris Paul, Derrick Rose or, of course, LeBron James.

Still, if Kevin Love can place sixth in the MVP voting.  Then Rondo could have a chance of at least placing higher than his eighth place finish this season.  However, in my opinion, winning a NBA Finals MVP is far more important than what you accomplish individually during the regular season.  It means that when you got the opportunity to excel you did so when it mattered the most for your team.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: Who on August 27, 2012, 03:42:13 PM
Nash was greatly helped by his team hugely over-performing the media's expectations in both MVP seasons + being the leader of one of the most fun / exciting offenses in the league.

Like D-Rose, Nash was a media-favourite and an easy story to write.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: LooseCannon on August 27, 2012, 03:49:47 PM
A possible MVP for Rondo would have to be based on the Celtics winning more games (at least ten more) than generally predicted in a manner such that the media will credit the improvement to Rondo's "intangibles".

You'd really need to get the media talking about whether volume scoring is overrated.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: wiley on August 27, 2012, 04:00:16 PM
won't happen this year....but could happen in his career as he's capable of a significantly higher scoring average than he's yet achieved due the Celtics great balance...

Anyone other than Lebron deserving it for a few years to come will be due to Lebron being injured or losing his focus.....not likely. 

Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: gotjoker? on August 27, 2012, 04:12:07 PM
I also want to add something in relation to Pierce.

Unlike Pierce, Rondo is like a young Garnett in the sense that he's talented enough to rank among the elite talents in the league at his position.  I think Pierce was impressive when he was younger but never quite reached a plateau that would've gain him first place votes for the regular season MVP award in any season.  But then, part of that is likely based on league perception.  Was he great to people not Boston fans? Also, you could argue that Pierce could've shared the Rookie Of The Year award with Vince Carter.  Their regular season statistics for the 1998-1999 season would indicate that way.

I guess what I'm saying is that I don't want to rule out any possibility here.  And my opinion isn't in anyway a slight against Pierce.  But I feel as if the media can acknowledge that Rondo is an elite talent in the league worthy of a conversation for whom is the best point guard in the NBA.  On the other hand, I don't ever recall the media outside of the local media ever wondering if Pierce is an elite talent or deserves to be mentioned among the best players not just at small forward in the NBA.

Boston fans want Rondo to get MVP votes one year just liked they'd wanted Pierce to get votes one year.  The difference is, it can be a reality for Rondo if he truly desires it.  I don't believe Pierce was ever perceived to be good enough outside of Massachusetts.  Again, it's about perception and statistics.  Statistics means impact on the league.  It seems unfair to me but Pierce had an impact on the league.  It just wasn't big or loud enough for most people to take notice.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: BballTim on August 27, 2012, 04:28:30 PM
It's an interesting question.  Rondo is hands down not the most valuable player on the Celtics...that's Kevin Garnett.  But Garnett has absolutely zero chance at garnering national attention unless both Rondo and Pierce get hurt this year.  Rondo, on the other hand, is square in the public eye both nationally and among fans.  So, as ironic as it is, I do think Rondo is probably the biggest potential MVP candidate of this team...even though he's not actually the MVP of the team.

  Garnett won't get much national attention if PP and Rondo are hurt because he's really not going to be able to do much on his own offensively at this stage in his career. I think that KG's the MVP in terms of being the most indispensible because there's nobody else on the roster that can replace what he does but I don't think that's the criteria the voters use.

If PP and Rondo were both hurt, perhaps.  With this current team I think KG could carry them through a playoff series without both, but over a season the things he'd have to do would wear him down.  Point to you.

  The team would truly struggle to score without PP and Rondo, I'd say Terry would be the only player in the rotation that could create his own shot.

But I've actually been in the midst of a pretty in depth convo about what if Rondo or KG went down, how would it affect the team.  And as we've worked through the thought experiment, I'm on record that I think this Celtics team without Rondo (but if everyone else stays fully healthy) would win 55 - 60 games and be a contender for the crown.  But this same team, everyone healthy, but no KG would be on the order of a 35 - 45 win team and maybe get a low-seed for the playoffs but that's about it.

Thinking it through has actually been a pretty fun exercise.  If anyone is interested (or thinks I'm a fool for the estimated records I just posted), I'd love to get a similar conversation going over here as well.

  I'd say that the team without Rondo would be somewhat like the Hawks or Clippers or Pacers, pretty good regular season teams but not title contenders. The team minus KG would be somewhat worse, still a playoff team but wouldn't be able to overcome the lack of defense/rebounding. The team faring better without Rondo than KG isn't because of their relative talent level, but the makeup of the rest of the roster.

  To illustrate the point, LeBron and Bosh combined to make much less of a difference to the Heat than LeBron by himself made to the Cavs the year before. It's not because LeBron suddenly became a significantly worse player, but because the Heat had Wade who could replace much of what LeBron added. Another example is the Celts from the mid-80s, who generally fared better during the season with Bird out of the lineup than Parish, mainly because they had a good backup sf and bad backup centers. By your way of thinking the Chief would have been the MVP of the team although Bird somehow managed to garner more national attention in the MVP race.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: BballTim on August 27, 2012, 04:34:19 PM
I also want to add something in relation to Pierce.

Unlike Pierce, Rondo is like a young Garnett in the sense that he's talented enough to rank among the elite talents in the league at his position.  I think Pierce was impressive when he was younger but never quite reached a plateau that would've gain him first place votes for the regular season MVP award in any season.  But then, part of that is likely based on league perception.  Was he great to people not Boston fans? Also, you could argue that Pierce could've shared the Rookie Of The Year award with Vince Carter.  Their regular season statistics for the 1998-1999 season would indicate that way.

  My recollection is that PP was clearly better for the first month or so and last month or so (strike season, only 50 games) but VC was better in the middle because PP had a fairly severe ankle sprain that affected his play for quite a while.
Title: Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: Who on August 27, 2012, 04:47:27 PM
But I've actually been in the midst of a pretty in depth convo about what if Rondo or KG went down, how would it affect the team.  And as we've worked through the thought experiment, I'm on record that I think this Celtics team without Rondo (but if everyone else stays fully healthy) would win 55 - 60 games and be a contender for the crown.  But this same team, everyone healthy, but no KG would be on the order of a 35 - 45 win team and maybe get a low-seed for the playoffs but that's about it.

Thinking it through has actually been a pretty fun exercise.  If anyone is interested (or thinks I'm a fool for the estimated records I just posted), I'd love to get a similar conversation going over here as well.
That's an interesting idea.

My first expectation would be that team's lack of big man depth flatters KG's value + high quality backcourt depth understate's Rondo game.

Without KG

C  - Jason Collins, Jared Sullinger, Fab Melo
PF - Brandon Bass, Chris Wilcox
SF - Paul Pierce, Jeff Green
SG - Avery Bradley, Courtney Lee
PG - Rajon Rondo, Jason Terry

Jason Collins would need to start in KG's absence. None of the other big men can play average to above average defense. Need Jason Collins for 16-18 minutes a night to give the team some sort of defensive stopper in the paint. Boston would go from one of the best (2nd?) starting centers in the league (Garnett) to one of the worst (bottom 3-4) starting centers in the league (Collins). 

I'd say that the starting lineup takes a major hit as does the team's overall big man rotation. Loses a lot defensively. Their perimeter rotation is still one of the finest in the NBA.

Without Rondo

C  - Kevin Garnett, Jared Sullinger, Jason Collins
PF - Brandon Bass, Chris Wilcox
SF - Paul Pierce, Jeff Green
SG - Avery Bradley, Courtney Lee
PG - Jason Terry, (Bradley)

Jason Terry is an excellent backup combo guard and solid starting PG. I'd say he's just inside the top twenty amongst starting PGs. The Celtics could use Avery Bradley as the backup PG and give increased playing time to Courtney Lee and/or Jeff Green on the wing.

Looks fairly similar to last year's team when Rondo was out.

Without KG vs Without Rondo

In both cases, I'd say they are borderline top ten squads (50 win ball-park) in the NBA with Garnett's team a little better than Rondo's team.

Solid playoff teams that can make it one or two rounds before being sent home.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: drza44 on August 27, 2012, 05:14:03 PM
My take on a KG absence vs. a Rondo absence:

If Rondo went down tomorrow for the year but everyone else were guaranteed to be healthy for the season, the Celtics win 55 - 60 games and challenge for the title. (This isn't hyperbole...I can even tell you how I think it would go):

*Starting Bradley, Lee, Pierce, Bass and Garnett the Celtics have the #1 defense in the NBA and the best since 2008

*KG still does his 5-5-5 plan, meaning that there are three distinct units that get run.  The first unit features Pierce as something like a point forward (averaging at least 5 assists per game) and the leading scoring option, followed by KG with Bradley/Lee/Bass as shooters/cutters that play off of them.  We've seen variations of this unit in limited action in the 27 games Rondo has missed in the past three seasons.  It has been successful in short stints...I believe it would be successful over larger periods.

*The second unit features Terry, Bradley (or Dooling), Green, Sullinger and Garnett.  The main set for this unit is the Terry/Garnett pick and roll/pop (which, by the way, you are going to LOVE this year.  Most of you have never seen KG in a true pick-and-play pairing.  You will enjoy it).  Green will be the primary weak-side scoring threat opposite the pick-and-play, and Sullinger will be the garbage man/post outlet off of the main action.  Bradley (or Dooling) will essentially spot up in the corner.

*The third unit is the one that will close halves and games: Terry, Lee (or Bradley), Pierce, Bass (or Green or Sullinger), and Garnett.  This will be the most dynamic unit on the team, with 5 legitimate scoring options that all have range out to at least 20 feet.  The unit will revolve between Pierce-centric and KG/Terry-centric action, and will be the most dangerous closing unit of the Big Three era bar none.

That team, again with the caveat that no one gets injured, would finish with at worst a top-10 - 15 offense (likely more in the 5 - 8 range) to go with the #1 defense in the league.  Championship contender.

If, on the other hand, KG went down tomorrow with the caveat that everyone else remained healthy, the Celtics would finish with 35 - 45 wins, as either a lower lottery or 7th/8th ranked playoff seed.

*The defense would not finish in the top-10...maybe not even in the top-15.

*Rondo would average close to a triple-double, and the team would run a lot.  If they stayed focused they would be a competitive squad on a night-by-night basis.  But whenever they weren't fully on and/or when they played a good team that was focused they would lose

*By trading season the rumors would be HOT and heavy that Pierce was on the block, and he might even be traded to accelerate a transition to a youth movement moving forward

*The offense would be solid by volume, but would not be very efficient.  Starting Rondo/Bradley/Pierce/Bass/Wilcox the offense looks like a weakened version of the unit that we saw last season.  Rondo plays 40 minutes per game, so he is in there with the second unit a lot as well (Rondo/Terry/Lee/Green/Sullinger) and that unit is more successful against the opponent's second units.  Terry gets to be featured in the 8 minutes or so that Rondo sits out per game, but other than that he is limited to the Ray Allen off-the-ball role that doesn't suit him as well, and he doesn't have a big man to play off of as he has for the past decade.

All told, the fan base would have a superstar to circle the wagons around (as was the case for most years before KG and Ray arrived), and Rondo would not disappoint in the numbers category.  He would build his own personal, loyal fan coterie the same way that Pierce did.  But the team would be watching the action by May...if not by mid-April.

Conclusion: Now of course, this is one man's opinion so you're welcome to disagree with me.  But I ask you, if you disagree...where do you think my above prediction is in error? 
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: BballTim on August 27, 2012, 05:27:42 PM
My take on a KG absence vs. a Rondo absence:

If Rondo went down tomorrow for the year but everyone else were guaranteed to be healthy for the season, the Celtics win 55 - 60 games and challenge for the title. (This isn't hyperbole...I can even tell you how I think it would go):

*Starting Bradley, Lee, Pierce, Bass and Garnett the Celtics have the #1 defense in the NBA and the best since 2008

*KG still does his 5-5-5 plan, meaning that there are three distinct units that get run.  The first unit features Pierce as something like a point forward (averaging at least 5 assists per game) and the leading scoring option, followed by KG with Bradley/Lee/Bass as shooters/cutters that play off of them.  We've seen variations of this unit in limited action in the 27 games Rondo has missed in the past three seasons.  It has been successful in short stints...I believe it would be successful over larger periods.

*The second unit features Terry, Bradley (or Dooling), Green, Sullinger and Garnett.  The main set for this unit is the Terry/Garnett pick and roll/pop (which, by the way, you are going to LOVE this year.  Most of you have never seen KG in a true pick-and-play pairing.  You will enjoy it).  Green will be the primary weak-side scoring threat opposite the pick-and-play, and Sullinger will be the garbage man/post outlet off of the main action.  Bradley (or Dooling) will essentially spot up in the corner.

*The third unit is the one that will close halves and games: Terry, Lee (or Bradley), Pierce, Bass (or Green or Sullinger), and Garnett.  This will be the most dynamic unit on the team, with 5 legitimate scoring options that all have range out to at least 20 feet.  The unit will revolve between Pierce-centric and KG/Terry-centric action, and will be the most dangerous closing unit of the Big Three era bar none.

That team, again with the caveat that no one gets injured, would finish with at worst a top-10 - 15 offense (likely more in the 5 - 8 range) to go with the #1 defense in the league.  Championship contender.

If, on the other hand, KG went down tomorrow with the caveat that everyone else remained healthy, the Celtics would finish with 35 - 45 wins, as either a lower lottery or 7th/8th ranked playoff seed.

*The defense would not finish in the top-10...maybe not even in the top-15.

*Rondo would average close to a triple-double, and the team would run a lot.  If they stayed focused they would be a competitive squad on a night-by-night basis.  But whenever they weren't fully on and/or when they played a good team that was focused they would lose

*By trading season the rumors would be HOT and heavy that Pierce was on the block, and he might even be traded to accelerate a transition to a youth movement moving forward

*The offense would be solid by volume, but would not be very efficient.  Starting Rondo/Bradley/Pierce/Bass/Wilcox the offense looks like a weakened version of the unit that we saw last season.  Rondo plays 40 minutes per game, so he is in there with the second unit a lot as well (Rondo/Terry/Lee/Green/Sullinger) and that unit is more successful against the opponent's second units.  Terry gets to be featured in the 8 minutes or so that Rondo sits out per game, but other than that he is limited to the Ray Allen off-the-ball role that doesn't suit him as well, and he doesn't have a big man to play off of as he has for the past decade.

All told, the fan base would have a superstar to circle the wagons around (as was the case for most years before KG and Ray arrived), and Rondo would not disappoint in the numbers category.  He would build his own personal, loyal fan coterie the same way that Pierce did.  But the team would be watching the action by May...if not by mid-April.

Conclusion: Now of course, this is one man's opinion so you're welcome to disagree with me.  But I ask you, if you disagree...where do you think my above prediction is in error?

  For starters, your prediction of big improvements to the offense by taking Rondo out of the equation is wildly optimistic. We won't rebound markedly better and we'll turn the ball over more frequently as well. Secondly, while you seem to have thought out your "5-5-5" lineups, you haven't bothered to comment on the close to 40% of the game that KG will be on the bench. There's no way that team, with KG on the bench for almost 20 minutes a game, will be one of the best defensive teams of all time.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: nickagneta on August 27, 2012, 05:44:15 PM
My take on a KG absence vs. a Rondo absence:

If Rondo went down tomorrow for the year but everyone else were guaranteed to be healthy for the season, the Celtics win 55 - 60 games and challenge for the title. (This isn't hyperbole...I can even tell you how I think it would go):

*Starting Bradley, Lee, Pierce, Bass and Garnett the Celtics have the #1 defense in the NBA and the best since 2008

*KG still does his 5-5-5 plan, meaning that there are three distinct units that get run.  The first unit features Pierce as something like a point forward (averaging at least 5 assists per game) and the leading scoring option, followed by KG with Bradley/Lee/Bass as shooters/cutters that play off of them.  We've seen variations of this unit in limited action in the 27 games Rondo has missed in the past three seasons.  It has been successful in short stints...I believe it would be successful over larger periods.

*The second unit features Terry, Bradley (or Dooling), Green, Sullinger and Garnett.  The main set for this unit is the Terry/Garnett pick and roll/pop (which, by the way, you are going to LOVE this year.  Most of you have never seen KG in a true pick-and-play pairing.  You will enjoy it).  Green will be the primary weak-side scoring threat opposite the pick-and-play, and Sullinger will be the garbage man/post outlet off of the main action.  Bradley (or Dooling) will essentially spot up in the corner.

*The third unit is the one that will close halves and games: Terry, Lee (or Bradley), Pierce, Bass (or Green or Sullinger), and Garnett.  This will be the most dynamic unit on the team, with 5 legitimate scoring options that all have range out to at least 20 feet.  The unit will revolve between Pierce-centric and KG/Terry-centric action, and will be the most dangerous closing unit of the Big Three era bar none.

That team, again with the caveat that no one gets injured, would finish with at worst a top-10 - 15 offense (likely more in the 5 - 8 range) to go with the #1 defense in the league.  Championship contender.

If, on the other hand, KG went down tomorrow with the caveat that everyone else remained healthy, the Celtics would finish with 35 - 45 wins, as either a lower lottery or 7th/8th ranked playoff seed.

*The defense would not finish in the top-10...maybe not even in the top-15.

*Rondo would average close to a triple-double, and the team would run a lot.  If they stayed focused they would be a competitive squad on a night-by-night basis.  But whenever they weren't fully on and/or when they played a good team that was focused they would lose

*By trading season the rumors would be HOT and heavy that Pierce was on the block, and he might even be traded to accelerate a transition to a youth movement moving forward

*The offense would be solid by volume, but would not be very efficient.  Starting Rondo/Bradley/Pierce/Bass/Wilcox the offense looks like a weakened version of the unit that we saw last season.  Rondo plays 40 minutes per game, so he is in there with the second unit a lot as well (Rondo/Terry/Lee/Green/Sullinger) and that unit is more successful against the opponent's second units.  Terry gets to be featured in the 8 minutes or so that Rondo sits out per game, but other than that he is limited to the Ray Allen off-the-ball role that doesn't suit him as well, and he doesn't have a big man to play off of as he has for the past decade.

All told, the fan base would have a superstar to circle the wagons around (as was the case for most years before KG and Ray arrived), and Rondo would not disappoint in the numbers category.  He would build his own personal, loyal fan coterie the same way that Pierce did.  But the team would be watching the action by May...if not by mid-April.

Conclusion: Now of course, this is one man's opinion so you're welcome to disagree with me.  But I ask you, if you disagree...where do you think my above prediction is in error?
Completely disagree with this.

First, Bradley is out until early December at best. Dooling, Terry and Lee would have to be the entire back court for a period of two months if Rondo was lost for the season. By the time Bradley came back the Celtics could well be 8-12. The start of the season isn't terribly hard but its not easy either with 3 games vs Philly, 2 games vs Brooklyn, 3 games vs Milwaukee and games against SA, OKC, Miami, and Chicago.

There's no way they could win 55-60 games, especially given that to do so, KG, Pierce and Terry would all have to play in excess of 35 MPG to do it and the team would have to be hot as heck during the last 75% of their schedule which would include all their west coast trips.

Now, I also don't think a KG-less Celtics team would be just a .500 team either. KG's importance to this team lies in his defensive quarterbacking and ability to be a leader in the playoffs. While his defense would be sorely missed in the playoffs, I believe the Celtics have enough on offense and enough excellent defensive players to still win 45-50 games without him in the regular season. I wouldn't expect them to get out of the first round of the playoffs without KG though.

Lose either player and the chance of an Atlantic title, top 3 seed in the Eastern Conference and any thoughts of a ring are gone. They are equally important to this team but in different ways.

That said, if Rondo can throw up 16/11/5/2.5 and shoot 70% from the line and 50% from the field, he would probably get some MVP votes. In a year were others got hurt or had below par years for them(people like LBJ, KD, Wade, etc.)and with Rose gone for the season, he might even get some real run as MVP. But an awful lot of things would have to happen just right for that to happen, IMHO.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: mgent on August 27, 2012, 06:07:50 PM
If anything Dirk strengthens the case for Rondo not making MVP.  You can win simply by being a beast on offense and not doing much else at all.  We can talk all day about how good Rondo is as an overall player, but the award is only about one thing.

  While I don't expect Rondo to win the award, I don't know that I'd call Dirk a beast on offense in a year when he finished 10th-11th in scoring.

Dirk Nowitzki was the best player in the NBA in 2007, and the best offensive player.

You know..until the playoffs.

That notwithstanding, his offensive efficiency numbers were way above board, he was the best player on the best regular season team, and he was shooting 50/40/90.

When was the last time that happened?

  I don't think Dirk was ever the best offensive player in the league, let alone the best player. And while he's a great shooter, I think people get way too excited about shooting over 90% from the line. In terms of free throw shooting in his (better) MVP year, I'd say that Nash shooting 92% from the line wasn't any more meaningful then the fact that he wasn't in the top 85 players in terms of fta/game.
That's absolutely ridiculous.  Dirk has done more for his teams' offenses than most players ALL TIME.  He led 12 straight teams to a top 10 offensive rating, including 3 straight number 1 offenses, 4 total.  The biggest give-away is the difference in the Mav's offense from when he sits to when he plays.

FYI, offense isn't all about scoring, and just like Nash his offensive contributions go way further than what he actually does.  They are indirectly responsible for so much of their teammates' offensive success.

I personally don't know anybody that gets excited by the 90% number.  It's the impressiveness of hitting over half your shots with the efficiency of a post player or Jordan-esque slasher, in the body of an elite 3pt shooter who takes the majority of their shots outside of 7 feet.  It's not all about shooting, Ray's the best all time and he's never been that efficient for a whole year.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: kp4000 on August 27, 2012, 07:25:57 PM
Rondo could be if he plays consistently on a nightly bases as he did during the second half of the 2012 season.

By Chris Sheridan
Quote
Player              1st   2nd     3rd   4th     5th Total Points
LeBron James           85   25   9   1   1   1074
Kevin Durant           24      83   13   1   0   889
Chris Paul              6       5       32   35      25   385
Kobe Bryant        2   5   30   39   30   352
Tony Parker         4       3   31      31   22   331
Kevin Love          0       0   4   6       20   58
Dwight Howard       0   0   1   1   5   13
Rajon Rondo         0       0   0   2       6       12
Steve Nash          0       0   0   1       4       7
Derrick Rose            0    0   1   0       0       5
Dwyane Wade            0       0   0   1   3   6
Russell Westbrook    0   0   0   1   1   4
Dirk Nowitzki            0       0   0   1   1   4
Tim Duncan            0       0       0   1   0   3
Joe Johnson            0       0       0   0       1       1

I don't understand who considered Rose, Dirk, Wade, Nash, Johnson or Duncan for 2012 candidates? If Rondo can make the list last season, then he certainly can this season.

Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: Celtics18 on August 27, 2012, 07:27:44 PM
Post deleted by Celtics18.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: Celtics18 on August 27, 2012, 08:24:37 PM
My take on a KG absence vs. a Rondo absence:



*The third unit is the one that will close halves and games: Terry, Lee (or Bradley), Pierce, Bass (or Green or Sullinger), and Garnett.  This will be the most dynamic unit on the team, with 5 legitimate scoring options that all have range out to at least 20 feet.  The unit will revolve between Pierce-centric and KG/Terry-centric action, and will be the most dangerous closing unit of the Big Three era bar none.




Conclusion: Now of course, this is one man's opinion so you're welcome to disagree with me.  But I ask you, if you disagree...where do you think my above prediction is in error?


The bolded portion is where I disagree most strongly with your assessment.  Based on that statement, I am going to make the assumption that you think our team would be better off offensively by replacing Rondo with Terry as the team's point guard. 

You say that the pick and roll/pop game with Terry and Garnett will be vastly improved from any we've seen.  It seems to me that you missed how effective Rondo and Garnett were together in the pick game last season.  True, Terry is a much more effective pull up jump shooter, but I think that Rondo's vastly superior passing and driving ability more than off-set whatever plus you'd get from Terry's jump shooting.  When Rondo and KG run the pick game together, there is nobody in the league better at not just getting the ball to KG off the pick, but also at finding cutters or other open shooters when the defense starts to scramble. 

From a statistical angle, yes, we were not a very efficient offensive team last year, but our main problems were offensive rebounding and getting to the free throw line.  Replacing Rondo with Terry wouldn't improve those aspects of the offense.  If anything, they would suffer even more.

We were still a strong team statistically in the categories of field goal shooting and three point field goal shooting, assists and assist to turnover ratio.  Those are all statistics that clearly Rondo had a large hand in creating.  He has the ability to make the defense react and to find the open man once it does at an elite level, leading to great, open looks for teammates.  I like Terry, but he clearly doesn't have that elite playmaking ability that Rondo has. 

A healthy Garnett, playing at the level he played at for the second half of last year may be as important (if not ever so slightly more important due to his defense) as Rajon Rondo to this team's success, but there is no way that he is potentially worth as much as 25 more wins out of an 82 game season than Rondo.

Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: bfrombleacher on August 27, 2012, 08:59:09 PM
I don't think any of Rondo, KG or Pierce cares about who the best player is on the team or whose absence will hurt the team most. That's the beauty of this team.

As for MVP, I'd rather have a championship thank you.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: BballTim on August 27, 2012, 09:25:29 PM
If anything Dirk strengthens the case for Rondo not making MVP.  You can win simply by being a beast on offense and not doing much else at all.  We can talk all day about how good Rondo is as an overall player, but the award is only about one thing.

  While I don't expect Rondo to win the award, I don't know that I'd call Dirk a beast on offense in a year when he finished 10th-11th in scoring.

Dirk Nowitzki was the best player in the NBA in 2007, and the best offensive player.

You know..until the playoffs.

That notwithstanding, his offensive efficiency numbers were way above board, he was the best player on the best regular season team, and he was shooting 50/40/90.

When was the last time that happened?

  I don't think Dirk was ever the best offensive player in the league, let alone the best player. And while he's a great shooter, I think people get way too excited about shooting over 90% from the line. In terms of free throw shooting in his (better) MVP year, I'd say that Nash shooting 92% from the line wasn't any more meaningful then the fact that he wasn't in the top 85 players in terms of fta/game.
That's absolutely ridiculous.  Dirk has done more for his teams' offenses than most players ALL TIME.  He led 12 straight teams to a top 10 offensive rating, including 3 straight number 1 offenses, 4 total.  The biggest give-away is the difference in the Mav's offense from when he sits to when he plays.

FYI, offense isn't all about scoring, and just like Nash his offensive contributions go way further than what he actually does.  They are indirectly responsible for so much of their teammates' offensive success.

  Dirk's no Steve Nash. He gets about the same number of assists a game as Shaq. He scores well and efficiently but comparing their impact on an offense aside from scoring is pretty silly.

I personally don't know anybody that gets excited by the 90% number.  It's the impressiveness of hitting over half your shots with the efficiency of a post player or Jordan-esque slasher, in the body of an elite 3pt shooter who takes the majority of their shots outside of 7 feet.  It's not all about shooting, Ray's the best all time and he's never been that efficient for a whole year.

  Dirk had an eFG% of .529 that year, Ray's done better 8 different years, or basically half of his career. Dirk had a TS% of .605, Ray's beaten that number 4 times including the last 2 seasons.

  Comparing Dirk to Ray over the course of their careers, they both have almost the same number of fga (about 18k). Dirk has 2200 more fta, so that's roughly equivalent to 900 fga (for computation purposes). They have almost identical TS% for their careers. Ray has about 500 more turnovers but he also has 1300 more assists. They also, oddly enough, have almost the same number of offensive rebounds (Dirk has about 80 more). Dirk, from the extra fta, has scored about 1000 more points, but overall the career offensive output of the two players (including efficiency) are extremely similar.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: mgent on August 29, 2012, 10:41:43 AM
overall the career offensive output of the two players (including efficiency) are extremely similar.
No disagreement there.  The difference is Dirk has a far more versatile game with a nice array of moves.  As a result he takes less 3s than Ray, and as a result he's managed to shoot over 50% twice.  It also helps that he can go down low on bad shooting nights, whereas we would see some pretty ugly shooting numbers from Ray on those nights.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: mgent on August 29, 2012, 10:51:14 AM

  Dirk's no Steve Nash. He gets about the same number of assists a game as Shaq. He scores well and efficiently but comparing their impact on an offense aside from scoring is pretty silly.

I never compared them.

However, I guess I have to rephrase:  There's more to offense than just passing and scoring.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: BballTim on August 29, 2012, 11:38:06 AM
overall the career offensive output of the two players (including efficiency) are extremely similar.
No disagreement there.  The difference is Dirk has a far more versatile game with a nice array of moves.  As a result he takes less 3s than Ray, and as a result he's managed to shoot over 50% twice.  It also helps that he can go down low on bad shooting nights, whereas we would see some pretty ugly shooting numbers from Ray on those nights.

  Or maybe we see Ray more often so we notice more of those bad shooting nights. It's true that he misses more shots those nights but he gets more points from his makes. If you look at fg% in games from 07-08 to 10-11 (the last 4 full seasons) Ray has about 18 more total games with a fg% of under 30%. Switch to eFG%, and Ray has about 1 more bad night a year.

  Beyond that, though, you said that Ray's never been as efficient as Dirk's 50/40 year for a whole season. Ray's had multiple seasons where he scored more efficiently than Dirk's best year.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: BballTim on August 29, 2012, 12:16:39 PM

  Dirk's no Steve Nash. He gets about the same number of assists a game as Shaq. He scores well and efficiently but comparing their impact on an offense aside from scoring is pretty silly.

I never compared them.

However, I guess I have to rephrase:  There's more to offense than just passing and scoring.

  Sure, there's plenty more to offense than just passing and scoring. If that wasn't the case this thread wouldn't exist. But you're hailing Dirk as one of the best offensive players of all time. Yet his career numbers are identical to Ray Allen's, and Ray's not exactly a name that springs to mind when you're picking players who have done more offensively for his team than almost anyone who's ever played the game. Dirk's intangibles would have to be very high, not compared to the average player but compared to other superstars. I don't know that I'd agree with that.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: indeedproceed on August 29, 2012, 12:22:47 PM
Well that fun little tangent about how Steve Nash didn't deserve the MVP in 05 but did deserve it in 06 has really run off the rails.

Comparing individual statistics of Ray Allen and Dirk Nowitzki is irrelevant.

Dirk was the best player by far on the team with the best record, and was the most efficient player in the league.

He deserved the MVP.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: kp4000 on August 29, 2012, 12:35:32 PM
Quote
Gerard Austria@gedaustria It's just Rajon Rondo's first day in the Philippines... And he already got a "Triple-Double!" instagr.am/p/O3-fCvtWug/

(http://distilleryimage8.instagram.com/2997c8faf11a11e18d8622000a1e8ba3_7.jpg)

Read more at: http://www.nesn.com/2012/08/rajon-rondo-hangs-out-in-philippines-records-triple-double-with-lovely-young-women-photo.html

Looks like he's getting a head start. Someone is about to get their toes curled. lol

Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: mgent on August 29, 2012, 01:41:57 PM
overall the career offensive output of the two players (including efficiency) are extremely similar.
No disagreement there.  The difference is Dirk has a far more versatile game with a nice array of moves.  As a result he takes less 3s than Ray, and as a result he's managed to shoot over 50% twice.  It also helps that he can go down low on bad shooting nights, whereas we would see some pretty ugly shooting numbers from Ray on those nights.

  Or maybe we see Ray more often so we notice more of those bad shooting nights. It's true that he misses more shots those nights but he gets more points from his makes. If you look at fg% in games from 07-08 to 10-11 (the last 4 full seasons) Ray has about 18 more total games with a fg% of under 30%. Switch to eFG%, and Ray has about 1 more bad night a year.

  Beyond that, though, you said that Ray's never been as efficient as Dirk's 50/40 year for a whole season. Ray's had multiple seasons where he scored more efficiently than Dirk's best year.
I guess I wasn't clear enough when I said efficient.  I was saying Dirk shot better.  Obviously Ray is a specialist and all his extra 3s make up for that but I was trying to say that Dirk is more efficient from all over the floor.  He's taking less efficient shots and making them. 

That's not taking anything away from Ray.  He happens to specialize in what is arguably the most efficient shot, which results in boosted TS% and eFG% stats.  That has nothing to do with the fact that Dirk has a much larger and more versatile game.

EDIT:  Not to mention those multiple seasons are once when Ray had Pierce, KG, and Rondo and his numbers saw a spike.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: mgent on August 29, 2012, 02:21:01 PM
Dirk's intangibles would have to be very high, not compared to the average player but compared to other superstars. I don't know that I'd agree with that.
I guess I disagree with you.

The reason Ray's name doesn't come to mind is because he's no where near the creator Dirk is (both in prime).  He's more suitable to put a horrible team on his back and make them overachieve.  You can always throw the ball in his hands and know you're getting a comfortable shot.

He went up against the most athletic defense and on a team in which he was the only star, and won a championship.  With offense.  If Ray did that he'd probably have a lot more attention.

How do you think he managed to get in the top 10 all-time for offensive win shares?  I never said he did "more offensively for his team than almost anyone who's ever played the game," but I did say he's done more than most.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: BballTim on August 29, 2012, 02:38:52 PM
Well that fun little tangent about how Steve Nash didn't deserve the MVP in 05 but did deserve it in 06 has really run off the rails.

Comparing individual statistics of Ray Allen and Dirk Nowitzki is irrelevant.

Dirk was the best player by far on the team with the best record, and was the most efficient player in the league.

He deserved the MVP.

  He's probably one of the few players in the league who can ever claim to be the most efficient player in the league without finishing in the top 10 in TS% or the top 20 in sFG%. He was also finished outside the top 10 in the league in scoring and rebounding and, let's face it, his defense isn't his calling card. Whether he deserved the MVP or not is far from a slam dunk.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: indeedproceed on August 29, 2012, 03:02:26 PM
Well that fun little tangent about how Steve Nash didn't deserve the MVP in 05 but did deserve it in 06 has really run off the rails.

Comparing individual statistics of Ray Allen and Dirk Nowitzki is irrelevant.

Dirk was the best player by far on the team with the best record, and was the most efficient player in the league.

He deserved the MVP.

  He's probably one of the few players in the league who can ever claim to be the most efficient player in the league without finishing in the top 10 in TS% or the top 20 in sFG%. He was also finished outside the top 10 in the league in scoring and rebounding and, let's face it, his defense isn't his calling card. Whether he deserved the MVP or not is far from a slam dunk.

2nd in PER (behind Wade, who only played 51 games)
2nd in estimated Wins Added (behind Kobe)
1st in WinsharesPer48, 1st in win shares, 5th in points scored, 13th in defensive win shares, 1st in offensive win shares...

And if you filter out guys with less than 50 starts or less than 10ppg, Dirk has the 5th best TS% in the league that year as well, behind just Shane Battier, Amare, Dwight Howard, and Kevin Martin.

On top of all that, he was the best player on a 67 win team, a team whose second best player was either Jason Terry or Josh Howard, depending on how you felt about either.

What part of that isn't a slam dunk? 
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: mgent on August 29, 2012, 03:27:30 PM
Well that fun little tangent about how Steve Nash didn't deserve the MVP in 05 but did deserve it in 06 has really run off the rails.

Comparing individual statistics of Ray Allen and Dirk Nowitzki is irrelevant.

Dirk was the best player by far on the team with the best record, and was the most efficient player in the league.

He deserved the MVP.

  He's probably one of the few players in the league who can ever claim to be the most efficient player in the league without finishing in the top 10 in TS% or the top 20 in sFG%. He was also finished outside the top 10 in the league in scoring and rebounding and, let's face it, his defense isn't his calling card. Whether he deserved the MVP or not is far from a slam dunk.
Right, let's look at some people ahead of him:  Dampier, Mikki Moore, Chandler, Najera, Reggie Evans, Biedrins, Eddy Curry, Posey, Turiaf, Pietrus, Diaw.

Efficiency doesn't mean everything when it comes to MVP.  When Pierce was an MVP contender his efficiency was crap compared to what it was in the Big 3 era.  Teammates make a huge difference.

Terry, Howard, Stackhouse, Harris, Dampier, Devean George, Greg Buckner, Diop

That's what Dirk led to the best record.  Four scorers who do almost nothing for their teammates' offense and create for themselves.  The fact that he still managed top 15 in TS% is pretty impressive if you ask me.

Also please tell me how 25ppg is low with Howard scoring 19, Terry 17, Stack 12, and Harris 10.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: BballTim on August 29, 2012, 04:47:43 PM
overall the career offensive output of the two players (including efficiency) are extremely similar.
No disagreement there.  The difference is Dirk has a far more versatile game with a nice array of moves.  As a result he takes less 3s than Ray, and as a result he's managed to shoot over 50% twice.  It also helps that he can go down low on bad shooting nights, whereas we would see some pretty ugly shooting numbers from Ray on those nights.

  Or maybe we see Ray more often so we notice more of those bad shooting nights. It's true that he misses more shots those nights but he gets more points from his makes. If you look at fg% in games from 07-08 to 10-11 (the last 4 full seasons) Ray has about 18 more total games with a fg% of under 30%. Switch to eFG%, and Ray has about 1 more bad night a year.

  Beyond that, though, you said that Ray's never been as efficient as Dirk's 50/40 year for a whole season. Ray's had multiple seasons where he scored more efficiently than Dirk's best year.
I guess I wasn't clear enough when I said efficient.  I was saying Dirk shot better.  Obviously Ray is a specialist and all his extra 3s make up for that but I was trying to say that Dirk is more efficient from all over the floor.  He's taking less efficient shots and making them. 

That's not taking anything away from Ray.  He happens to specialize in what is arguably the most efficient shot, which results in boosted TS% and eFG% stats.  That has nothing to do with the fact that Dirk has a much larger and more versatile game.

EDIT:  Not to mention those multiple seasons are once when Ray had Pierce, KG, and Rondo and his numbers saw a spike.

  What you're saying about Ray vs Dirk isn't true at all. First of all, in Dirk's 50/40 year he hit 51% of his twos and 42% of his threes. In 10-11 Ray hit 52% of his twos and 44% of his threes. Ray just took a lot more threes than Dirk so that dragged down his overall fg%. Beyond that, you can check out their fg% for different distances from the basket for the last 5 years from hoopdata. Dirk looks like he's a little better from 16-23 feet, Ray's better on threes. At the rim, 3-9 feet and 10-15 feet from the basket, you'd have to do the math to see for sure who's better.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: BballTim on August 29, 2012, 04:54:43 PM
Well that fun little tangent about how Steve Nash didn't deserve the MVP in 05 but did deserve it in 06 has really run off the rails.

Comparing individual statistics of Ray Allen and Dirk Nowitzki is irrelevant.

Dirk was the best player by far on the team with the best record, and was the most efficient player in the league.

He deserved the MVP.

  He's probably one of the few players in the league who can ever claim to be the most efficient player in the league without finishing in the top 10 in TS% or the top 20 in sFG%. He was also finished outside the top 10 in the league in scoring and rebounding and, let's face it, his defense isn't his calling card. Whether he deserved the MVP or not is far from a slam dunk.

2nd in PER (behind Wade, who only played 51 games)
2nd in estimated Wins Added (behind Kobe)
1st in WinsharesPer48, 1st in win shares, 5th in points scored, 13th in defensive win shares, 1st in offensive win shares...

And if you filter out guys with less than 50 starts or less than 10ppg, Dirk has the 5th best TS% in the league that year as well, behind just Shane Battier, Amare, Dwight Howard, and Kevin Martin.

On top of all that, he was the best player on a 67 win team, a team whose second best player was either Jason Terry or Josh Howard, depending on how you felt about either.

What part of that isn't a slam dunk?

  I'd say the not being in the top 10 in scoring or rebounding, not being in the same area code of the leaders in assists and (obviously) not being on the all-defense teams makes it not a slam dunk.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: indeedproceed on August 29, 2012, 05:00:29 PM
Well that fun little tangent about how Steve Nash didn't deserve the MVP in 05 but did deserve it in 06 has really run off the rails.

Comparing individual statistics of Ray Allen and Dirk Nowitzki is irrelevant.

Dirk was the best player by far on the team with the best record, and was the most efficient player in the league.

He deserved the MVP.

  He's probably one of the few players in the league who can ever claim to be the most efficient player in the league without finishing in the top 10 in TS% or the top 20 in sFG%. He was also finished outside the top 10 in the league in scoring and rebounding and, let's face it, his defense isn't his calling card. Whether he deserved the MVP or not is far from a slam dunk.

2nd in PER (behind Wade, who only played 51 games)
2nd in estimated Wins Added (behind Kobe)
1st in WinsharesPer48, 1st in win shares, 5th in points scored, 13th in defensive win shares, 1st in offensive win shares...

And if you filter out guys with less than 50 starts or less than 10ppg, Dirk has the 5th best TS% in the league that year as well, behind just Shane Battier, Amare, Dwight Howard, and Kevin Martin.

On top of all that, he was the best player on a 67 win team, a team whose second best player was either Jason Terry or Josh Howard, depending on how you felt about either.

What part of that isn't a slam dunk?

  I'd say the not being in the top 10 in scoring or rebounding, not being in the same area code of the leaders in assists and (obviously) not being on the all-defense teams makes it not a slam dunk.

Of the MVP's of the last 10 years, do you know how many were not the best player on the team with either the best or second best record in the NBA?

2. Kobe Bryant in 08, Steve Nash in 06.

Being the best player on the best or second best team is a huge precursor to success in the MVP race.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: BballTim on August 29, 2012, 05:12:17 PM
Well that fun little tangent about how Steve Nash didn't deserve the MVP in 05 but did deserve it in 06 has really run off the rails.

Comparing individual statistics of Ray Allen and Dirk Nowitzki is irrelevant.

Dirk was the best player by far on the team with the best record, and was the most efficient player in the league.

He deserved the MVP.

  He's probably one of the few players in the league who can ever claim to be the most efficient player in the league without finishing in the top 10 in TS% or the top 20 in sFG%. He was also finished outside the top 10 in the league in scoring and rebounding and, let's face it, his defense isn't his calling card. Whether he deserved the MVP or not is far from a slam dunk.

2nd in PER (behind Wade, who only played 51 games)
2nd in estimated Wins Added (behind Kobe)
1st in WinsharesPer48, 1st in win shares, 5th in points scored, 13th in defensive win shares, 1st in offensive win shares...

And if you filter out guys with less than 50 starts or less than 10ppg, Dirk has the 5th best TS% in the league that year as well, behind just Shane Battier, Amare, Dwight Howard, and Kevin Martin.

On top of all that, he was the best player on a 67 win team, a team whose second best player was either Jason Terry or Josh Howard, depending on how you felt about either.

What part of that isn't a slam dunk?

  I'd say the not being in the top 10 in scoring or rebounding, not being in the same area code of the leaders in assists and (obviously) not being on the all-defense teams makes it not a slam dunk.

Of the MVP's of the last 10 years, do you know how many were not the best player on the team with either the best or second best record in the NBA?

2. Kobe Bryant in 08, Steve Nash in 06.

Being the best player on the best or second best team is a huge precursor to success in the MVP race.

  The fact that those two votes are right before and right after the Dirk vote makes it seem like less of a precursor at that time.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: indeedproceed on August 29, 2012, 05:13:30 PM
Well that fun little tangent about how Steve Nash didn't deserve the MVP in 05 but did deserve it in 06 has really run off the rails.

Comparing individual statistics of Ray Allen and Dirk Nowitzki is irrelevant.

Dirk was the best player by far on the team with the best record, and was the most efficient player in the league.

He deserved the MVP.

  He's probably one of the few players in the league who can ever claim to be the most efficient player in the league without finishing in the top 10 in TS% or the top 20 in sFG%. He was also finished outside the top 10 in the league in scoring and rebounding and, let's face it, his defense isn't his calling card. Whether he deserved the MVP or not is far from a slam dunk.

2nd in PER (behind Wade, who only played 51 games)
2nd in estimated Wins Added (behind Kobe)
1st in WinsharesPer48, 1st in win shares, 5th in points scored, 13th in defensive win shares, 1st in offensive win shares...

And if you filter out guys with less than 50 starts or less than 10ppg, Dirk has the 5th best TS% in the league that year as well, behind just Shane Battier, Amare, Dwight Howard, and Kevin Martin.

On top of all that, he was the best player on a 67 win team, a team whose second best player was either Jason Terry or Josh Howard, depending on how you felt about either.

What part of that isn't a slam dunk?

  I'd say the not being in the top 10 in scoring or rebounding, not being in the same area code of the leaders in assists and (obviously) not being on the all-defense teams makes it not a slam dunk.

Of the MVP's of the last 10 years, do you know how many were not the best player on the team with either the best or second best record in the NBA?

2. Kobe Bryant in 08, Steve Nash in 06.

Being the best player on the best or second best team is a huge precursor to success in the MVP race.

  The fact that those two votes are right before and right after the Dirk vote makes it seem like less of a precursor at that time.

Ha, like all our discussions, Tim, I disagree.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: mgent on August 29, 2012, 05:58:55 PM
overall the career offensive output of the two players (including efficiency) are extremely similar.
No disagreement there.  The difference is Dirk has a far more versatile game with a nice array of moves.  As a result he takes less 3s than Ray, and as a result he's managed to shoot over 50% twice.  It also helps that he can go down low on bad shooting nights, whereas we would see some pretty ugly shooting numbers from Ray on those nights.

  Or maybe we see Ray more often so we notice more of those bad shooting nights. It's true that he misses more shots those nights but he gets more points from his makes. If you look at fg% in games from 07-08 to 10-11 (the last 4 full seasons) Ray has about 18 more total games with a fg% of under 30%. Switch to eFG%, and Ray has about 1 more bad night a year.

  Beyond that, though, you said that Ray's never been as efficient as Dirk's 50/40 year for a whole season. Ray's had multiple seasons where he scored more efficiently than Dirk's best year.
I guess I wasn't clear enough when I said efficient.  I was saying Dirk shot better.  Obviously Ray is a specialist and all his extra 3s make up for that but I was trying to say that Dirk is more efficient from all over the floor.  He's taking less efficient shots and making them. 

That's not taking anything away from Ray.  He happens to specialize in what is arguably the most efficient shot, which results in boosted TS% and eFG% stats.  That has nothing to do with the fact that Dirk has a much larger and more versatile game.

EDIT:  Not to mention those multiple seasons are once when Ray had Pierce, KG, and Rondo and his numbers saw a spike.

  What you're saying about Ray vs Dirk isn't true at all. First of all, in Dirk's 50/40 year he hit 51% of his twos and 42% of his threes. In 10-11 Ray hit 52% of his twos and 44% of his threes. Ray just took a lot more threes than Dirk so that dragged down his overall fg%. Beyond that, you can check out their fg% for different distances from the basket for the last 5 years from hoopdata. Dirk looks like he's a little better from 16-23 feet, Ray's better on threes. At the rim, 3-9 feet and 10-15 feet from the basket, you'd have to do the math to see for sure who's better.
If you think Dirk having a much more versatile game is false or that he doesn't take higher difficulty shots then I'm not going to argue with you.  If you also think Dirk is a one-dimensional offensive player that doesn't affect much beyond putting the ball in the basket, fine.

You can throw out numbers from Ray's by far best shooting year if you want, that doesn't convince anybody that he has the same game inside the arc as Dirk.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: BballTim on August 29, 2012, 06:00:03 PM
Well that fun little tangent about how Steve Nash didn't deserve the MVP in 05 but did deserve it in 06 has really run off the rails.

Comparing individual statistics of Ray Allen and Dirk Nowitzki is irrelevant.

Dirk was the best player by far on the team with the best record, and was the most efficient player in the league.

He deserved the MVP.

  He's probably one of the few players in the league who can ever claim to be the most efficient player in the league without finishing in the top 10 in TS% or the top 20 in sFG%. He was also finished outside the top 10 in the league in scoring and rebounding and, let's face it, his defense isn't his calling card. Whether he deserved the MVP or not is far from a slam dunk.

2nd in PER (behind Wade, who only played 51 games)
2nd in estimated Wins Added (behind Kobe)
1st in WinsharesPer48, 1st in win shares, 5th in points scored, 13th in defensive win shares, 1st in offensive win shares...

And if you filter out guys with less than 50 starts or less than 10ppg, Dirk has the 5th best TS% in the league that year as well, behind just Shane Battier, Amare, Dwight Howard, and Kevin Martin.

On top of all that, he was the best player on a 67 win team, a team whose second best player was either Jason Terry or Josh Howard, depending on how you felt about either.

What part of that isn't a slam dunk?

  I'd say the not being in the top 10 in scoring or rebounding, not being in the same area code of the leaders in assists and (obviously) not being on the all-defense teams makes it not a slam dunk.

Of the MVP's of the last 10 years, do you know how many were not the best player on the team with either the best or second best record in the NBA?

2. Kobe Bryant in 08, Steve Nash in 06.

Being the best player on the best or second best team is a huge precursor to success in the MVP race.

  The fact that those two votes are right before and right after the Dirk vote makes it seem like less of a precursor at that time.

Ha, like all our discussions, Tim, I disagree.

  I guess if you didn't disagree, we'd have fewer discussions. But I'd be more convinced in this case if the league's history was littered with players who were clearly undeserving of their MVP awards but got it mainly because of team success. I doubt that's the case.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: fairweatherfan on August 29, 2012, 06:05:58 PM
Of the MVP's of the last 10 years, do you know how many were not the best player on the team with either the best or second best record in the NBA?

2. Kobe Bryant in 08, Steve Nash in 06.

Being the best player on the best or second best team is a huge precursor to success in the MVP race.

The Heat had the 4th-best record last year.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: BballTim on August 29, 2012, 06:11:30 PM
overall the career offensive output of the two players (including efficiency) are extremely similar.
No disagreement there.  The difference is Dirk has a far more versatile game with a nice array of moves.  As a result he takes less 3s than Ray, and as a result he's managed to shoot over 50% twice.  It also helps that he can go down low on bad shooting nights, whereas we would see some pretty ugly shooting numbers from Ray on those nights.

  Or maybe we see Ray more often so we notice more of those bad shooting nights. It's true that he misses more shots those nights but he gets more points from his makes. If you look at fg% in games from 07-08 to 10-11 (the last 4 full seasons) Ray has about 18 more total games with a fg% of under 30%. Switch to eFG%, and Ray has about 1 more bad night a year.

  Beyond that, though, you said that Ray's never been as efficient as Dirk's 50/40 year for a whole season. Ray's had multiple seasons where he scored more efficiently than Dirk's best year.
I guess I wasn't clear enough when I said efficient.  I was saying Dirk shot better.  Obviously Ray is a specialist and all his extra 3s make up for that but I was trying to say that Dirk is more efficient from all over the floor.  He's taking less efficient shots and making them. 

That's not taking anything away from Ray.  He happens to specialize in what is arguably the most efficient shot, which results in boosted TS% and eFG% stats.  That has nothing to do with the fact that Dirk has a much larger and more versatile game.

EDIT:  Not to mention those multiple seasons are once when Ray had Pierce, KG, and Rondo and his numbers saw a spike.

  What you're saying about Ray vs Dirk isn't true at all. First of all, in Dirk's 50/40 year he hit 51% of his twos and 42% of his threes. In 10-11 Ray hit 52% of his twos and 44% of his threes. Ray just took a lot more threes than Dirk so that dragged down his overall fg%. Beyond that, you can check out their fg% for different distances from the basket for the last 5 years from hoopdata. Dirk looks like he's a little better from 16-23 feet, Ray's better on threes. At the rim, 3-9 feet and 10-15 feet from the basket, you'd have to do the math to see for sure who's better.
If you think Dirk having a much more versatile game is false or that he doesn't take higher difficulty shots then I'm not going to argue with you.  If you also think Dirk is a one-dimensional offensive player that doesn't affect much beyond putting the ball in the basket, fine.

You can throw out numbers from Ray's by far best shooting year if you want, that doesn't convince anybody that he has the same game inside the arc as Dirk.

  Haha. You were crowing about Dirk's 50/40 years, claiming that Ray's never had such an efficient year:

  "It's the impressiveness of hitting over half your shots with the efficiency of a post player or Jordan-esque slasher, in the body of an elite 3pt shooter who takes the majority of their shots outside of 7 feet.  It's not all about shooting, Ray's the best all time and he's never been that efficient for a whole year."

  I show you that Ray *has* been more efficient for a whole year and you whine that I'm throwing out numbers from Ray's best shooting year. That's pretty nonsensical.

  This, of course, ignores the fact that I used Ray and Dirk's shooting *over the last 5 years* to show that it's not true that "Dirk is more efficient from all over the floor". If you want to drop your prior argument and go with "Dirk isn't more efficient from all over the floor, but takes higher degree of difficulty shots" go ahead. If you've given up on defending your original claims then I guess we are done arguing.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: mgent on August 29, 2012, 06:49:24 PM
overall the career offensive output of the two players (including efficiency) are extremely similar.
No disagreement there.  The difference is Dirk has a far more versatile game with a nice array of moves.  As a result he takes less 3s than Ray, and as a result he's managed to shoot over 50% twice.  It also helps that he can go down low on bad shooting nights, whereas we would see some pretty ugly shooting numbers from Ray on those nights.

  Or maybe we see Ray more often so we notice more of those bad shooting nights. It's true that he misses more shots those nights but he gets more points from his makes. If you look at fg% in games from 07-08 to 10-11 (the last 4 full seasons) Ray has about 18 more total games with a fg% of under 30%. Switch to eFG%, and Ray has about 1 more bad night a year.

  Beyond that, though, you said that Ray's never been as efficient as Dirk's 50/40 year for a whole season. Ray's had multiple seasons where he scored more efficiently than Dirk's best year.
I guess I wasn't clear enough when I said efficient.  I was saying Dirk shot better.  Obviously Ray is a specialist and all his extra 3s make up for that but I was trying to say that Dirk is more efficient from all over the floor.  He's taking less efficient shots and making them. 

That's not taking anything away from Ray.  He happens to specialize in what is arguably the most efficient shot, which results in boosted TS% and eFG% stats.  That has nothing to do with the fact that Dirk has a much larger and more versatile game.

EDIT:  Not to mention those multiple seasons are once when Ray had Pierce, KG, and Rondo and his numbers saw a spike.

  What you're saying about Ray vs Dirk isn't true at all. First of all, in Dirk's 50/40 year he hit 51% of his twos and 42% of his threes. In 10-11 Ray hit 52% of his twos and 44% of his threes. Ray just took a lot more threes than Dirk so that dragged down his overall fg%. Beyond that, you can check out their fg% for different distances from the basket for the last 5 years from hoopdata. Dirk looks like he's a little better from 16-23 feet, Ray's better on threes. At the rim, 3-9 feet and 10-15 feet from the basket, you'd have to do the math to see for sure who's better.
If you think Dirk having a much more versatile game is false or that he doesn't take higher difficulty shots then I'm not going to argue with you.  If you also think Dirk is a one-dimensional offensive player that doesn't affect much beyond putting the ball in the basket, fine.

You can throw out numbers from Ray's by far best shooting year if you want, that doesn't convince anybody that he has the same game inside the arc as Dirk.

  Haha. You were crowing about Dirk's 50/40 years, claiming that Ray's never had such an efficient year:

  "It's the impressiveness of hitting over half your shots with the efficiency of a post player or Jordan-esque slasher, in the body of an elite 3pt shooter who takes the majority of their shots outside of 7 feet.  It's not all about shooting, Ray's the best all time and he's never been that efficient for a whole year."

  I show you that Ray *has* been more efficient for a whole year and you whine that I'm throwing out numbers from Ray's best shooting year. That's pretty nonsensical.

  This, of course, ignores the fact that I used Ray and Dirk's shooting *over the last 5 years* to show that it's not true that "Dirk is more efficient from all over the floor". If you want to drop your prior argument and go with "Dirk isn't more efficient from all over the floor, but takes higher degree of difficulty shots" go ahead. If you've given up on defending your original claims then I guess we are done arguing.
At some point we started talking about careers.  It's tough to keep up when you ignore the overall point of peoples' posts or questions you don't want to answer and focus on a disputable, often irrelevant opinion.  You usually then throw out something indisputable with a twist on the person's words, which might make you look smart but makes for a really annoying and dead-end debate.

I admitted I might not have been clear with my statement.  I don't see how Dirk isn't more efficient from more areas on the court, and it's that versatility which allowed him to shoot 50%.  He also takes less efficient shots and takes them on a team where he is the best player and all the attention is on him.  Ray was the fourth on that team.

EDIT:  I also like how you say you used Ray and Dirk's shooting over the last 5 years to show Dirk wasn't more efficient from other areas of the court.  You did this when you said "Dirk looks like he's a little better from 16-23 feet, Ray's better on threes"?? 

And I'd say 49% compared to 43% is more than a little better (from 16-23).  Now imagine if Dirk swapped with Ray on the Celtics.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: BballTim on August 29, 2012, 07:25:45 PM
Of the MVP's of the last 10 years, do you know how many were not the best player on the team with either the best or second best record in the NBA?

2. Kobe Bryant in 08, Steve Nash in 06.

Being the best player on the best or second best team is a huge precursor to success in the MVP race.

The Heat had the 4th-best record last year.

  So, the precursor's hit 4 times in 7 years?
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: BballTim on August 29, 2012, 11:08:01 PM
I admitted I might not have been clear with my statement.  I don't see how Dirk isn't more efficient from more areas on the court, and it's that versatility which allowed him to shoot 50%.  He also takes less efficient shots and takes them on a team where he is the best player and all the attention is on him.  Ray was the fourth on that team.

  A couple of things: The main reason that Dirk hit 50% from the field and Ray doesn't isn't because he's more efficient from more areas of the court. It's because Ray takes so many more threes than Dirk. Over their entire careers, Dirk shoots 50% on twos and 38% on threes. Ray shoots 48% on twos and 40% on threes. There's not much seperation between the two players either inside or outside the arc.

  Also, being on the same team with PP/KG/Rondo hasn't done a lot to change Rays shooting. He was still 48% on twos and 40% on threes for his career before he joined the Celts.

EDIT:  I also like how you say you used Ray and Dirk's shooting over the last 5 years to show Dirk wasn't more efficient from other areas of the court.  You did this when you said "Dirk looks like he's a little better from 16-23 feet, Ray's better on threes"?? 

And I'd say 49% compared to 43% is more than a little better (from 16-23).  Now imagine if Dirk swapped with Ray on the Celtics.

  Yes, I didn't want to do out all the math. Ray was better on threes. Dirk was better on 16-23 feet. Ray also looks to have a better fg% near the basket. The numbers look to be very close at 3-9 feet and 10-15 feet. Dirk's advantage from 16-23 feet is fairly sizeable (as you pointed out).

  But considering how close their overall two point shooting numbers are and how many shots Dirk takes from that distance, Ray would almost certainly have a better overall fg% inside of 15 feet than Dirk. So "Dirk is a better shooter from all over the court" really boils down to "Dirk is better at shooting long two point jumpers than Ray".
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: mgent on August 30, 2012, 12:07:40 AM
  A couple of things: The main reason that Dirk hit 50% from the field and Ray doesn't isn't because he's more efficient from more areas of the court. It's because Ray takes so many more threes than Dirk. Over their entire careers, Dirk shoots 50% on twos and 38% on threes. Ray shoots 48% on twos and 40% on threes. There's not much seperation between the two players either inside or outside the arc.

I guess 2 percent isn't MUCH separation, but it's about what I expected.  Same as their total career FG%.

But when you add that to the higher ppg, lower amount of turnovers, higher degree of difficulty, wider versatility, extra defensive attention, and higher unpredictably I tend to give him more credit.  He's been in the top 5 for scoring more times than he's been in the top 10 for shot attempts.  He is responsible for the most efficient shooting performance of all time. 
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: BballTim on August 30, 2012, 10:15:41 AM
  A couple of things: The main reason that Dirk hit 50% from the field and Ray doesn't isn't because he's more efficient from more areas of the court. It's because Ray takes so many more threes than Dirk. Over their entire careers, Dirk shoots 50% on twos and 38% on threes. Ray shoots 48% on twos and 40% on threes. There's not much seperation between the two players either inside or outside the arc.

I guess 2 percent isn't MUCH separation, but it's about what I expected.  Same as their total career FG%.

  Interesting. When you were talking about how much more efficient I'd have guessed that you were describing more seperation. If Ray made 1 more 2 point shot every 5th game he'd have the same fg% inside the arc as Dirk. I don't see how that slight of a difference translates to "more efficient from all over the floor".

But when you add that to the higher ppg, lower amount of turnovers, higher degree of difficulty, wider versatility, extra defensive attention, and higher unpredictably I tend to give him more credit.  He's been in the top 5 for scoring more times than he's been in the top 10 for shot attempts.

  Agree about the higher ppg. If you're talking about the lower amount of turnovers, you also have to talk about the lower amount of assists you get from Dirk. I don't think that the slight differences in ppg and usage before Ray joined the Celts would cause defenses to pay much more attention to Dirk than Ray, and you'd have to consider Dirk's height advantage over his defender when you decide on degree of difficulty.

  BTW, I agree that Dirk's a better scorer than Ray, but the difference isn't huge. But I still don't think that someone who's a little better scorer than Ray and really isn't a good facilitator would be among the best of all time in terms of helping his team offensively.

He is responsible for the most efficient shooting performance of all time.

  What is this "most efficient shooting performance of all time" that he's responsible for?
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: mgent on August 30, 2012, 10:36:57 AM
48 points on 15 shots.  12 FGs, 24-24 from the line.

Did it in the playoffs but broke the regular season record too.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: BballTim on August 30, 2012, 10:52:23 AM
48 points on 15 shots.  12 FGs, 24-24 from the line.

Did it in the playoffs but broke the regular season record too.

  Oh, you're talking about a single game.

  Apparently, on 2-25-06, Arenas was 13-16 from the field (7-10 on threes) and 13-14 from the line, 46 points. 2 less points, 1 more shot, but 10 fewer fta. Clearly more efficient. And Gilbert had 1 fewer turnover as well.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: mgent on September 05, 2012, 10:51:12 AM
48 points on 15 shots.  12 FGs, 24-24 from the line.

Did it in the playoffs but broke the regular season record too.

  Oh, you're talking about a single game.

  Apparently, on 2-25-06, Arenas was 13-16 from the field (7-10 on threes) and 13-14 from the line, 46 points. 2 less points, 1 more shot, but 10 fewer fta. Clearly more efficient. And Gilbert had 1 fewer turnover as well.
Not from a true shooting perspective. 
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: BballTim on September 05, 2012, 11:07:27 AM
48 points on 15 shots.  12 FGs, 24-24 from the line.

Did it in the playoffs but broke the regular season record too.

  Oh, you're talking about a single game.

  Apparently, on 2-25-06, Arenas was 13-16 from the field (7-10 on threes) and 13-14 from the line, 46 points. 2 less points, 1 more shot, but 10 fewer fta. Clearly more efficient. And Gilbert had 1 fewer turnover as well.
Not from a true shooting perspective.

 From a true shooting perspective Dirk used 25.6 shooting possessions to score 48 points, Gilbert used 22.2 shooting possessions to score 46 points. Do the math, but Arenas is obviously more efficient.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: mgent on September 06, 2012, 09:52:50 AM
48 points on 15 shots.  12 FGs, 24-24 from the line.

Did it in the playoffs but broke the regular season record too.

  Oh, you're talking about a single game.

  Apparently, on 2-25-06, Arenas was 13-16 from the field (7-10 on threes) and 13-14 from the line, 46 points. 2 less points, 1 more shot, but 10 fewer fta. Clearly more efficient. And Gilbert had 1 fewer turnover as well.
Not from a true shooting perspective.

 From a true shooting perspective Dirk used 25.6 shooting possessions to score 48 points, Gilbert used 22.2 shooting possessions to score 46 points. Do the math, but Arenas is obviously more efficient.
Okay so NOW you can agree that efficiency stats don't tell you everything about efficiency?
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: BballTim on September 06, 2012, 10:02:41 AM
48 points on 15 shots.  12 FGs, 24-24 from the line.

Did it in the playoffs but broke the regular season record too.

  Oh, you're talking about a single game.

  Apparently, on 2-25-06, Arenas was 13-16 from the field (7-10 on threes) and 13-14 from the line, 46 points. 2 less points, 1 more shot, but 10 fewer fta. Clearly more efficient. And Gilbert had 1 fewer turnover as well.
Not from a true shooting perspective.

 From a true shooting perspective Dirk used 25.6 shooting possessions to score 48 points, Gilbert used 22.2 shooting possessions to score 46 points. Do the math, but Arenas is obviously more efficient.
Okay so NOW you can agree that efficiency stats don't tell you everything about efficiency?

  I'd need you to explain further to answer that. I don't know why Gilbert having a more efficient scoring game than Dirk proves anything.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: D.o.s. on September 06, 2012, 10:11:10 AM
TANGENT: Prior to general mental shenanigans and the knee surgery(/ies?), Arenas could absolutely score at will... and it was a lot of fun to watch.

(and there's also some prime 06-07 Suns footage to ogle here too).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dbAUDS6LjE

Anyway, Rondo MVP? It's possible, but I think the biggest hurdle in voters mind's would be how much he appears to single-handedly help his team. Even though we know the team runs on Rondo, he's still playing with two future-hall-of-famers (contrasted to Derrick Rose or Steve Nash, the last two PG's to win MVP). Let's call this Tony Parker syndrome.
Title: Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
Post by: mgent on September 06, 2012, 12:37:42 PM
48 points on 15 shots.  12 FGs, 24-24 from the line.

Did it in the playoffs but broke the regular season record too.

  Oh, you're talking about a single game.

  Apparently, on 2-25-06, Arenas was 13-16 from the field (7-10 on threes) and 13-14 from the line, 46 points. 2 less points, 1 more shot, but 10 fewer fta. Clearly more efficient. And Gilbert had 1 fewer turnover as well.
Not from a true shooting perspective.

 From a true shooting perspective Dirk used 25.6 shooting possessions to score 48 points, Gilbert used 22.2 shooting possessions to score 46 points. Do the math, but Arenas is obviously more efficient.
Okay so NOW you can agree that efficiency stats don't tell you everything about efficiency?

  I'd need you to explain further to answer that. I don't know why Gilbert having a more efficient scoring game than Dirk proves anything.
I was saying Dirk's game was better in terms of TS% because that's what several articles I read were claiming (that it was the best ever recorded).  So it's not a real example for stats not telling you everything about efficiency. I now realize they meant his was better because he scored more. 

I personally don't think using efficiency stats in an argument tells you much unless there's a huge separation (like there was with Rondo and Nash).  Arenas gains the same advantage Ray does in that he mostly only shoots the most efficient shot in basketball.  This gives a lot of weight to the stats, and leads to amazing statistical games or seasons when hot.  That's great and all when you're playing the games on paper.

Now if I were a GM building a team on efficiency, I wouldn't be focused on 3 point shooting and I think most coaches would agree.  I would prefer the guy who gets to the line more and can take the ball in the paint/create his own shot.  The majority of 3 point shots have to be set up.  James Posey has had a season more efficient than Dirk too, sorry if I'm not really as impressed with that either.